Tennis (indian Wells)

[Atko]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) Hopefully these two will fare better than last night's... Arnaud Clement vs Peter Luczak: Clement -1.5 games AH at 1.87 Two things about this bet. Clement is (a) the more complete player and (b) Luczak struggles on a non-clay surface outside of America. The Australian posted a woeful result against Juan Ignacio Chela last time out in Acapulco and relies on his serve working a lot. If it's not firing, Clement's got the guile and skill to break him down. The Frenchman likes a quick surface and he'll view this as entirely winnable. Although the meetings were in 2003 and 2006, Clement has won both of the past encounters. It's a battle of the veterans, one I expect Clement to take. Bet strength: 8/10 Bookmaker: Pinnacle Sports Nicolas Almagro vs Mischa Zverev: Zverev +3.5 games AH at 1.92 Not sure this will be as easy for Almagro as the odds make out. Zverev's finally snapped out of the losing habit and is a tricky player, throwing in lots of net approaches and drop shots. Almagro is far happier on clay and spent the last month playing on it, while Zverev was doing the rounds on the hard courts. It'll take Almagro a bit of time to ajust. The Spaniard also has a poor record against lefties and his movement is poor on a quicker surface. Not brave enough to take Zverev outright, but a +3.5 game handicap is worth a play. Bet strength: 4/10 Bookmaker: Pinnacle Sports Hanescu on a handicap also tempted me, and I still think Zeballos is way too big against Mello, but that's my lot. IAmGooner, Benneteau's a bit too short for me - I always think he does better indoors than outdoors - but sheer match fitness should see him through. Good luck, Atko

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) Agreed on Benneteau Atko. Just felt if he was between 1.5-2.0 I'd take him...don't think Ancic is in the shape to beat him now and Benneteau's price seems more like a 2/5 IMO. His decent record at IW was a factor too...really is a tricky tournament to judge for surface speed, conditions etc. Zverez is gonna cause Almagro all sorts of problems aswell.......:ok

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) Becker to beat Mathieu @ 5/6 (10/10 : small stake) Discussed my reasoning earlier but simply not liking the reports coming out about Mathieu's injury. 1st match in a while and seems to be still struggling slightly. Becker is not a player I really like, has a good serve when it's on but pretty limited otherwise. Has a 1/4 final at Delray Beach this year but not a whole lot else to speak of. This bet is just to oppose Mathieu, small stakes because I don't trust Becker's quality a great deal. GL! Take this at Ladbrokes....1 ball bookie so will pay out if Becker wins courtesy of a PHM retirement.

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Jie Zheng v Sorana Cirstea
Selection	Sorana Cirstea
Strength	10/10
Date	12/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 3.80 (Back)
Reasoning	Zheng is very inconstant, and really don't like her at a short price. She played very well in Australia but since then has lost twice at short prices. Also think she would like the courts a bit quicker. Cirstea has been struggling for months with a foot injury, but sure how she is now but got a good win over Kanepi in the first round and I think she can back it up here.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Nadia Petrova v Patty Schnyder
Selection	Nadia Petrova
Strength	10/10
Date	12/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 1.57 (Back)
Reasoning	Going against Schnyder again. Garbin put in very little effort in the last round and still don't think she's playing close to the required level. Petrova had a shocker in Dubai but apart from that think she's playing OK and should come through this without too many problems.

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

WIN WIN WIN.

good stuff gooner.....serra was the pick of those bets!got him at 4-5 with paddypower!! you're on sharp form at the moment i must say! i like the becker bet i must say.....he's a much better player than players give him credit for on this forum i reckon! his serve isn't that huge and he didn't get to world 39 for nothing!! he's generally only been beaten by top class opposition this year and most of those matches have been competitive(lost to almagro in 5 at the aussie open, took a set off tsonga in davis cup,two tiebreaks against ivo, and verdasco and gasquet beat him in straights but didn't hammer him! the reports on mathieu aren't good, and anyway,he's a confidence player and very inconsistent no matter how you look at it! his forehand can tend to break down and he won't enjoy becker's aggressive style (he'll surely have a lot of unforced errors in him on his first match back after so long!) also like molik at evens on the basis of her head-to-head record against medina (3-1),medinas poor form at the moment(losing last week in straights to zakapalova looks a poor effort) and molik's demolition of malek is bound to have her full of confidence!

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) monaco-belluci double at 10-11 paddypower 2 points! monaco plays fognini and belluci plays moya! juan monaco obviously has made all his big books on clay over his career so far but he's had some good results on hard court too! he's been to the fourth round of the us open and the 3rd round of the aussie open twice and he's taken sets off djokovic and murray on hard courts also! i don't feel in any way that he's a major force on hard court but it's obvious that he's comfortable playing away from the red dust! the courts here are playing quite slow which suits both players but fognini is much less comfortable on hard courts than juan! he beat rochus 7-5 in the third yesterday but rochus is in poor poor form and thats by no means an impressive result! monaco is a step up in class now and should be motivated for a big tournament like indian wells (retired injured two weeks ago against ferrero but i believe it's nothing too serious)! over the years monaco has probably been the most reliable 1-2,1-3,1-4 ish accumulator material for me than any other player and he is such a model professional(always leaves it out on the court)even if fognini gives him a scare i expect monaco's class and superior ability to play this surface to tell! belluci next!!! he plays moya!! belluci is being touted as the next big thing for brazil and while i think he is far from being the finished article there is no doubting his talent and also his mental strength(won a tight final against monaco in chile thjis year.....also beat gonzalez)! moya struggled through yesterday against the very average smyczek in two tight tie-breaks(moya showing typical balls and grit) but the signs are that he's a spent force!he's already lost to the likes of marchenko and zeballos this year and belluci is an even bigger step up in class!!! belluci is also a leftie (has a booming forehand) and moya has never enjoyed playing lefties even in his hayday as his back-hand is a much weaker shot than his wonderful forehand!! his movement is much worse than it was also!! one would expect belluci to be motivted and refreshed for a big tournament like this especially against a legend like moya and while his hard court skills still need a lot of pruning he will surely have too much fire-power for carlos!! 2 points

[gattis]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) In today's matches my best bet is :

TANASUGARN T.(ΤΑΥ)

REZAI A.(FRA)

Tanasugarn +1.5 set @ 1.75 Tanasugarn win @ 2.63

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) kirsten flipkens to beat alexandra wozniak at 5-6 paddypower 1 point! overall, i actually feel that wozniak has more game than flipkens( much more solid off both wings.....flipkens can only really slice backhand) but i feel that flipkens is a bad match-up for wozniak!! wozniaks movement is pretty suspect and she won't enjoy playing against such an aggressive unconventional player like flipkens! flipkens has a powerful forehand and she can use this to move wozniak around the court! she will slice,change the pace, play drop shots,attack the net and unsettle wozniak and take her out of her comfort zone! she's already beaten wozniak this year in january! and the main reason i like this bet so much is the poor poor form that wozniak has shown this year so far!! to lose 6-2,6-3 to cornet in her home country last week is a bad performance and her results have generally been poor so far this year! overall, i think wozniak is the better player but form and match-up tip the balance in flipkens favour!!

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) gulbis to beat davydenko at 11-4 bet365! it's just a value price really! gulbis should be full of confidence following his first atp tour final win just over a week ago!! he finally looks to have a bit of consistency in his game and motivation seems high!! he has huge groundstrokes and a big serve and even when he's been in bad form he's always raised his game against the top players and should relish this challenge against davydenko!! davydenko nearly got beaten by serra two weeks ago and pulled out injured in the next round so there's some question marks over him as he hasn't played since!of course he has to be favourite here but 11-4 is an excellent value price for a small punt on the confident talented gulbis! i also have to say cirstea seems good value at 11-4 against zheng! zheng has been in poor form since the australian open losing to molik and most recently to chang (6-2,6-3) which is a very poor result! maybe zheng will find the magic again but there are question marks over her for sure(when she's bad her forehand can go very wayward) and the slow courts won't particularly suit her! cirstea has hardly been in the form of her life lately (she's been woeful if truth be told) but she will gain confidence after her comeback against kanepi who possibly threw it away but she is a fighter and a feisty competitor and it is only a matter of time before she finds her best form which is at a very very high level indeed as she proved with her run to the french open quarters last year!

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) chakvetadze to win the first set against radwanska appeals at 11-4!!she has a winning record against radwanska and though she's totally went off the boil in the last few years she will gain confidence from her comeback against keothavong!! she still has loads of talent (more natural talent than radwanska) and she played very well in patches against pennetta in the australian open before mentally losing it again(a common occurance over the last 18 months)!! she could certainly go on a hot streak in this match and i think it looks like it could go over 19 games at 4-5 with powers so worth one point bet!

[Yoann_Gourcuff]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Hopefully these two will fare better than last night's... Arnaud Clement vs Peter Luczak: Clement -1.5 games AH at 1.87 Two things about this bet. Clement is (a) the more complete player and (b) Luczak struggles on a non-clay surface outside of America. The Australian posted a woeful result against Juan Ignacio Chela last time out in Acapulco and relies on his serve working a lot. If it's not firing, Clement's got the guile and skill to break him down. The Frenchman likes a quick surface and he'll view this as entirely winnable. Although the meetings were in 2003 and 2006, Clement has won both of the past encounters. It's a battle of the veterans, one I expect Clement to take. Bet strength: 8/10 Bookmaker: Pinnacle Sports

Clement lost 62 64 to Luczak this year in Sydney qualies.am thinking about this one too though.

[Cornell]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Julie Coin vs. Samantha Stosur
Selection	Coin
Strength	8/10
Date	13/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 4.55 (Back)
Reasoning	Samantha Stosur is in the position of the big favourite but I have to disagree with that as first of all she didn't played at least one game here at Indian Wells, so she didn't proved to be in a great form as she was for example in other tournaments like Los Angeles, Osaka, French Open or others from last year. About Julie Coin I have to mentionate that she is able to compete against difficult players as she has proved that even recently against Lucie Safarova, so I'm sure that she can be competitive against Stosur's level. Samantha, is the player who depend a lot of his serve as this is her most strong point of the game, but without serve and also forehand she can be very easy in trouble as in those rallys from the baseline Coin should even dominate the play. From the defence point of view Coin can create trouble to Stosur and there not about only Coin, it is about Samantha's qualities and style of playing as she is not the player with stability from the baseline. All in all, Stosur can play amazing tennis but that when she is in a great form, her attacking style needs accuracy, otherwise she can be very simple in troubles. Good Luck!

[Cornell]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Jeremy Chardy vs. Sam Querrey
Selection	Chardy
Strength	10/10
Date	13/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 3.81 (Back)
Reasoning	Jeremy Chardy was away for a long time from those good results as he had a very difficult period, can't be any doubts about that, but since the moment he starts to show a better form I see no reasons to offer these huge odds on his side. Well, Chardy is a very talented player, a player of top 20 and I think it is a mistake to underrate him in this way, everybody has more difficult and more better times in his career, but that doesn't mean that you won't do it better the next time as every new tournament means a new chance of improvement. At Indian Wells Chardy have just another chance and speaking certain about this tournament I have to mentionate that the frenchman made a good start as he has played some nice tennis against Starace, this good start surely change the things. These odds are only due to Chardy's bad form for a quite long period, but from the class point of view I will say that he is more talented than Sam Querrey. Stability is on Querrey's side, no doubts about that but these odds are just to high as in case that Chardy will play his tennis the american surely will have a very difficult task. About Querrey: he impressed at Davis Cup and also I have to mentionate that he is playing at home and that is an advantage for sure, but that still do not cover other aspect before a game like (difference in class and a good start for Chardy against Starace which could be a sign of a better form). All in all, Chardy will play more motivated as he is the underdog here, situation when it is the best time to back him. Good Luck!

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Becker to beat Mathieu @ 5/6

LOSS.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Hopefully these two will fare better than last night's... Arnaud Clement vs Peter Luczak: Clement -1.5 games AH at 1.87 Two things about this bet. Clement is (a) the more complete player and (b) Luczak struggles on a non-clay surface outside of America. The Australian posted a woeful result against Juan Ignacio Chela last time out in Acapulco and relies on his serve working a lot. If it's not firing, Clement's got the guile and skill to break him down. The Frenchman likes a quick surface and he'll view this as entirely winnable. Although the meetings were in 2003 and 2006, Clement has won both of the past encounters. It's a battle of the veterans, one I expect Clement to take. Bet strength: 8/10 Bookmaker: Pinnacle Sports Nicolas Almagro vs Mischa Zverev: Zverev +3.5 games AH at 1.92 Not sure this will be as easy for Almagro as the odds make out. Zverev's finally snapped out of the losing habit and is a tricky player, throwing in lots of net approaches and drop shots. Almagro is far happier on clay and spent the last month playing on it, while Zverev was doing the rounds on the hard courts. It'll take Almagro a bit of time to ajust. The Spaniard also has a poor record against lefties and his movement is poor on a quicker surface. Not brave enough to take Zverev outright, but a +3.5 game handicap is worth a play. Bet strength: 4/10 Bookmaker: Pinnacle Sports Hanescu on a handicap also tempted me, and I still think Zeballos is way too big against Mello, but that's my lot. IAmGooner, Benneteau's a bit too short for me - I always think he does better indoors than outdoors - but sheer match fitness should see him through. Good luck, Atko

Clement d. Luczak 4-6 6-3 6-2 :ok Almagro d. Zverev 6-3 6-3 :eyes A 2.96pt profit for the day's play, with the big bucks invested in Clement paying off, although when I awoke at 2am to see he'd lost the first set, I was fearing the worst! Fair play to Almagro, he put Zverev away pretty easily.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) Not really finding much to go for today in IW, so only one pick... Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Philipp Petzschner: Petzschner at 2.78 Two Philipps, two Germans. One player regaining his form in Petzschner, the other seeing his slide in Kohlschreiber. The latter has quite a lot to play for here, having made the last 16 in 2009 at Indian Wells. Sadly, Kohlschreiber is a shadow of the player he was then. He's facing a compatriot who has already played on these courts (d. Christophe Rochus in R1) and Petzschner is starting to show a bit of form, making the semis in Zagreb and Memphis. He's never faced Kohlschreiber before, but I can see his net-attacking style causing Kohlschreiber all sorts of problems. Kohlschreiber is also having real trouble with his serve, and if he falls behind early, I can see his morale dropping. Worth a small punt. Bet strength: 2/10 Bookmaker: Pinnacle Sports Good luck, Atko

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Event	Nikolay Davydenko - Ernests Gulbis
Selection	Nikolay Davydenko -3.5
Strength	10/10
Date	13/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.82 (Back)
Reasoning	Gulbis in awewsome form coming into this match but he really struggled against Marco Chiudinelli in the 1st round. Gulbis was all over the place on his second serve. Davy is one of the best receivers in the game and will punish any week second serve from Gulbis.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Event	Anastasija Sevastova - Ana Ivanovic
Selection	Ana Ivanovic
Strength	10/10
Date	13/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Boylesports @ 1.80 (Back)
Reasoning	Ivanovic has been in crap form for almost 2 years now. I have a weird feeling this tournament might change things slightly. Well at least she must get past 2nd round. Sevastova is improving player. Got to career 1st semi in Monterrey last week and surely has lots of confidence coming into this tournament. But there are two worries. First of all she's carrying some sort of foot injury. And the second worrying sign is that she dropped a set against poor Llagostera Vives in the 1st round. Ivanovic has been to the final of this event for past two years and should at least get past 2nd round. Price is very good and one definitely not to be missed.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Event	Florent Serra - Tomas Berdych
Selection	Over 21.5
Strength	10/10
Date	13/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.90 (Back)
Reasoning	Serra has game to trouble best players in the world. He was ok in the 1st round and get an easy win over poor Falla. Berdych definitely more talented player and probably will win this one but I predict a tough fight maybe even going to 3 sets here.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Event	John Isner - Kevin Anderson
Selection	Over 22.5
Strength	10/10
Date	13/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingbet @ 1.80 (Back)
Reasoning	Both guys are huge servers, Isner of course better one and have more options in receiving. I can see this match going all the way and probably having 3 tiebreaks but over is a sure winner here for me. Good luck!

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Event	Philipp Kohlschreiber - Philipp Petzschner
Selection	Philipp Kohlschreiber
Strength	10/10
Date	13/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.57 (Back)
Reasoning	Petzschner has a game to trouble crappy Kohlschreiber who has been in really poor game lately. Saw him in Davis Cup against Gale Monfils and he is making steps forward to his best form and should give his compatriot a beating here.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Event	Mardy Fish - Novak Djokovic
Selection	Over 20.5
Strength	10/10
Date	13/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.84 (Back)
Reasoning	Djokovic is really poor this year. I have absolutely no idea how he managed to win Dubai title playing so crappy tennis. He continued to under perform ind Davis Cup after that and was not far away from losing to John Isner on clay. Fish got past 1st round and should be confident of giving Nole real fight for this money.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Event	Victoria Azarenka - Sybille Bammer
Selection	Under 18.5
Strength	10/10
Date	13/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 1.80 (Back)
Reasoning	Azarenka should hammer old Bammer as she has done in the past. The last match was won by Bammer on retirement but I really would not read that much into it. This is serious stuff and Azarenka will be all guns blazing form the first ball. 6-3, 6-3 will do it.

[christiano]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Tip Detail

Sport	Tennis
Event	Szavay - Chan
Selection	Szavay
Strength	10/10
Date	13/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.53 (Back)
Reasoning	I don't know why odds are rising on this one.Szavay is much better player than Chan and had few nice weeks so far this season.Chan on the other hand has no significant results...she beat Voegele in the first round :D Market is overreacting in this one imo.Szavay easilly for me.

Tip Detail

Sport	Tennis
Event	Hantuchova - Vinci set hcp
Selection	Vinci +1,5 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	13/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	>Unibet @ 1.84 (Back)
Reasoning	Vinci is well capable of making a surprise in this one.She played good first match against Oudin and she served great.Hantuchova is inconsistent and she may give Vinci at least one set.They played 2 matches so far against each other and both times Daniela had really tough time.

[Borovnica]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Verdasco-Delgado
Selection	Verdasco- Under 12.5 Games
Strength	10/10
Date	13/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 1.90 (Back)
Reasoning	Delgado somehow menaged to turn clock back at age of 34 to get this far.He used soft draw in qualies although had to surpass 16 break points against very poor returner Brands,and after that faced A.Beck who was playing first match after tough elbow injuri.He has solid serve and baseline game,but should get easily overpowered by Verdasco and as he lacks great movement and defensive options to try forcing errors out of Verdasco this should be easy matchup for Spaniard.Verdasco is defending quarters from last season and this slow and bouncy surface looks really good for his game.He comes here with nice form and fully rested as he skipped the Davis Cup at weekend,so with quality,form and perfect conditions this should be an easy one.

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Julien Benneteau v Mario Ancic
Selection	Julien Benneteau
Strength	10/10
Date	13/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 1.62 (Back)
Reasoning	Going to go against Ancic again. He did well to beat Reynolds, but Benneteau is a few levels above and will make him play a lot of balls. I still think it'll be hard for him to show a consistant level although it is good to see him playing again. Benneteau in good form and should be solid enough.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Nicolay Davydenko v Ernests Gulbis
Selection	Ernests Gulbis
Strength	10/10
Date	13/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 3.25 (Back)
Reasoning	Think this is a little bit of value. Gulbis struggled in round 1 but came through OK in the end and can play better here. He was awesome towards the end of Delray Beach and after getting his first title he could go on a tear. His big game can hurt Davydenko, and Davys dodgy wrist can hurt aswell! Not sure what shape he's in, so worth going against in his first match.

[Borovnica]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Coin - Stosur
Selection	Coin
Strength	7/10
Date	14/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 4.35 (Back)
Reasoning	This two players posses pretty similar game with main diiference that Stosur bring it all together more often in play than Coin.Both would like faster conditions as they are attacking minded with big serves and forehands.Stosurs is more secure with lot of height and spin while Coin plays it pretty much flat.There isnt anything that stands out in terms of matchup and i cant see any clear advantage for either.So its all about form and confidence on given day,so from what i saw from Stosur this season she doesnt deserve to be such huge favourite.I watched couple of her matches at Ao and last one against Garbin in Dubai and it was clear that she is far away from best game,struglling with confidence and without any consistency in all departments.So thats way this looks like nice spot for Coin,she has match practice here and struggling opponent,who want change her game and become defensive and try forcing errors,but its going to be attacking game,so Coin stands with nice chances.

[Cornell]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Marin Cilic vs. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
Selection	Garcia (+5.5) GH (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	13/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 2.00 (Back)
Reasoning	Well, I have to disagree with this high game handicap as Garcia-Lopez is the player who can play stable tennis on his serve while Cilic do not possess a great return, this is not his best quality. Marin Cilic will play his first game here at Indian Wells while Garcia has already playe one game and had some time to get accustomed with the court and conditions. Cilic's results have been really impressive in 2010, that makes him overrated tonight, this line game handicap is too high for a player like Cilic who do not break his opponents so easy, at his serve he is playing very stable but on the return is not the same. IMO there will be many chance for a tough game where both players should hold their serves, a tiebreak also very probable. From the form point of view I will say that Garcia made a solid start while Cilic as I have mentionated will play just his first game here, so there are no advantages on Cilic's side, resons for this handicap. All in all, Cilic is overrated at the moment, thats why we have this handicap today. Good Luck!

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) Horrible from Benneteau........:puke LOSS

[Borovnica]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Lu - Roddick
Selection	Lu +5.5 Games (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	14/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 1.67 (Back)
Reasoning	Lu passed through qualies and first round with ease and didnt get broken in all three matches. Opponent were low quality and out of form,but beside that he was impressive and showed that very close matches with Verdasco and Roddick lately were not by coincidence.This two played couple of weeks ago in Memphis and it was very close with just one break of serve.Conditions here are much slower and that could help Lu even more.Roddick rarely covers this handicap in best of three even when he wins.So far this season in 11 matches he won he did it just two times.I expect again a very close scoreline so this looks just too big of gap.