Tennis (indian Wells)

[smegmaniac]

Indian Wells And Challengers

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) bastian Knittel To Beat Guteerez-ferrol At 5-4!! This Is In Morocco Challenger Rabat!! Very Surprised Knittel Is An Underdog Here! Knittel Has Had A Very Decent Start To The Year And He Has Already Posted Wins Against Solid Challenger Level Clay Courters Like Ouahab,flock,aldi And Brizzi(not World Beaters But Better Players Than Ferrol I Reckon) Most Recently He Went Three Sets With Amrrero Who's A Solid Clay Courter!! He Also Won A Challenger In Germany His Home Country Beating The Like S Of Galung And Panfil!! He's Played A Lot Of Tennis And Won Plenty Of Matches!ferrol On The Other Hand Hasn't Won Too Many Games At All This Year And Though He's Renowned As A Clay Courter This Guy Could Barely String A Few Wins Together On Any Surface On The Challenger Circuit Last Year And His Form This Year Is Very Dodgy!! I Am Shocked By The Price And Ill Say Three Points For The Underdog Here!!

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) ventura to beat andujar at 5-6 bet365 1 point!! it's just really hard to ignore this price as the fact is ventura is a level ahead of andujar on clay! He's not the most reliable player in the world especially in challengers but his most recent form is good as he beat hanescu and took a set off the red hot ferrero in argentina and generally i would say he's a classier opponent than andujar who is in decent nick yet has still lost against the likes of gil,volandri and ouahab this year!!

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) yj chan to beat stephanie dubois at 5-4 paddypower 2 points! once again very surprised chan is underdog here!! she's actually in decent form at the moment!! she beat talented chinses youngster zhou before losing 7-5 in the third to in-form malek in the next round in pattaya! she also beat rogowska and brianti in dubai before losing to lisicki! she retired injured against kudraytseva latest in kuala lumpar but that was just dizziness nothing serious!! she's also playing well in doubles ...won a title in february in kuala lumpar with zheng so confidence should be high!! dubois on the other hand is in woeful form!! she lost in straights in homeland to dentoni which doesnt read well at all!! she lost to very ordinary veteran osterloh a week earlier in 3 sets!! she has also been hammered by szavay and canadian tetreault over the last month so confidence must be pretty low!! she's actually a bad match-up for chan and has won their only meeting in hobart last year in straights!!basically she's a plugger and will keep the ball in play forcing the aggressiva nad often erratic chan into mistakes(in other words i feel the match is in chans hands a little)......chan does tend to break down in long ralleys but she does have powerful strokes and her results suggest that at least she's hitting the ball well!! dubois' results look awful and for her to be 4-7 favourite here just doesnt make sense to me!! 2 points on chan

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) marta domachowska to beat rus at 8-11 paddy power 2 points!! domachowska has never been the most reliable player to back (Can be very erratic, over aggressive with poor shot selection and inconsistent in rallies and more than capable of beating herself)!however,i'm still going to back her in this one for a few reasons! she's in pretty good form relative to rus this year....domachowska has beaten the likes of vania king, osterloh and keothavong this year!and the matches she lost were well contested.....2 close 3 setters with arvidsson and one against wickmayer in fed cup!! she's a talented player and quite dangerous when she is in form as she has powerful strokes and a big serve(she's beaten li na in grand slams and taken a set off venus in the australian open) rus is a young up and comer who has recieved a lot of hype but in my opinion is still a long way off the level required to make any impact at these tier one tournaments(even qualifying)! i've seen her twice and was decidedly unimpressed!! her backhand needs a lot of work(especially her running backhand....nets a lot of those) and and she's in very poor form at the moment!maybe she's about to burst into life but in her last two matches she lost to veteran laura granville and was hammered by kanepi which is not a good sign for me! domachowska to have too much firepower for me!!!1

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) rodionova to beat woerle at 8-11 paddypower! 2 points i can't turn this price down!! rodionova is even less trustworthy than domachowska but she's in very good form at the moment!! she has already lost to woerle in 3 this year in brisbane buty she's in better form now and she is the type of player who when she's not on form she can lose to anyone but when she's playing well she's a dangerous opponent as sabine lisicki learned the hard way at the us open last year!! she's already beaten pavlyuchenkova,govortsova and krumm this year!! her most recent losses have come in 3 set losses to in-form players sevastova and most impressively in kuala lumper to eventual winner kleybanova!! woerle is a solid battler with suspect movement but has always been found wanting at the highest level and if rodionova brings her A or even her B game she should have way too much class!!

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) chang morita double at evens paddypower 2 points! i fancy up and comer chang to beat voskoboeva......don't really like the price but voskoboeva can barely win a match at the moment and chang is in good form and competing at a high level so i expect her to win!! morita is also coming into form and she's simply a class above kustova who's out of her depth at this level!

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) parra santonja to beat coco vandweghe in straight sets at 6-5 bet365 2 points! parra santonja is in decent form of late her most impressive effort so far this year coming in bogota on the clay beating savchuk,mayr and errani before finding eventual champ ducque marino too good!she can also play on fast surfaces and she proved this on d grass last year beating tanasugarn at wimbledon and pushing sugiyama close!!she's no world-beater but she's a solid old pro!! vandewehge is an 18 year old american that apparently showed a lot of potential as a junior but has had a very poor start to the season and seems to be really struggling to adapt to the senior tour!! she's had numerous wildcards on american soil but has got hockeyed almost every single time!! in the aussie open she lost to the average zahlavova 6-0,6-1 and her results since on challenger level haven't been much better!! she lost her most recent outing in straight sets to world number 684 julia boserup which suggests she still is nowhere near the standard that parra santonja will set for her and 6-5 for a straight sets win looks an inviting price to me!!

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) A few qualifiers catch my eye tonight. Also like Reynolds against Istomin @ 3.30 as Istomin was in China Sunday night, but haven't got time to write it up as starting soon.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Kevin Kim v Brendan Evans
Selection	Brendan Evans
Strength	10/10
Date	09/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingbet @ 2.80 (Back)
Reasoning	Liked Evans for a few years, still think he could make a solid top 100 player. He's had a bad run doing a bit of globetrotting but down back in the US I expect him to play better. He qualified in Indian Wells last year and I wouldn't be surprised if he did so again. Kim is pretty solid but I wouldn't really rate him much above Evans, and I wouldn't have Evans above 2.30 for this.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Rainer Schuettler v Alex Bogomolov
Selection	Rainer Schuettler
Strength	10/10
Date	09/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 1.62 (Back)
Reasoning	Schuettler several levels above Bogomolov and I expect him to come through. He's got a solid record in IW and he's had to qualify for this event a couple of times, and he won through both times. Bit concerned as he doesn't play qualifying tournaments very often, but I'll risk it. Never really liked Bogomolov, he hasn't got much of a game to huty Schuettler, and in the wind Schuettler should be too solid.

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) disappointing day yesterday!! i even pointed out how dodgy it is to back domachowska and rodionova but fell in love with the prices a bit!! anyway, knittel,chan, chang, morita and santonja parra in straightsets all did the business so still ended up in profit!! the following are my bets for the day!! michelle larcher de brito to beat rus at 605 paddypower!! 2 points seems to be a lot of money coming in for rus but i'm siding with the underdog here! de brito is only 16 i think and she has a lot of talent and potential(she's already beaten kuznetsova and some other top opponents in her short career) she's had a horrible start to the season and she's basically very inconsistent still(understandable considering her age) but she can fairly hit the ball and is a very good battler when she's motivated!! she did well in indian wells last year and has points to defend! rus had a good win over domachowska in the first round of qualifying but that victory is not enough sign that she's in flying form as marta is very hit and miss on her day!! rus' own results have been very poor this year but i feel the feisty de brito has a little more talent(rus' backhand needs work) and her first round victory against zakapalova in the first round reads well!! 6-5 on de brito is good value and i guess i'd value it as a bet for one and a half points!)

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) yeah, i agree with you cramer! think that evans, reynolds and spadea all represent value at underdog prices!worth small punts!

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) Smeg what you think about Garbin vs Schnyder???........ Expected Garbin to be slight favourite here but she's available at 6/5. Schnyder has not really done a whole lot this year, very few matches and lost in straights to Oudin at Paris and Dulgheru at Dubai. Garbin on the other hand reaching 3rd round of AO beating Vesnina and Shvedova, 1/4 final at Paris and lost a 3 setter to rising start Pavyluchenkova in Dubai. Two veterans but Schnyder has never won a match at Indian Wells(0-2) and you know you'll get a good fight with Garbin. No real power or weapons but she's a fighter. Looks a good bet. Also liking Petkovic to beat Strycova.Petkovic is a rising star, competing at another level to Strycova in the last 6 months or so. Might double this up with something else.

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) Reynolds won on retirement. Took that with a bookie that voided myself (clever:lol), hope some got paid:ok

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) yeah,gooner i think garbin represents the value!! she's a great battler and in decent form!overall, patty is certainly the classier player but she just seems to be in woeful form and ery unmotivated of late!! i dont really like petkovic at short odds!! zahlavova strycova is a great battler and make sthe most of her limited talents(bit like garbin) and if it gets close barbora can certainly take it!! petkovic is more likely winner of course but i wouldnt back her ta short odds! i also really fancy kutozova at shortish odds of 4-7 against woerle but i think she'll win!! 2 points raging istomin retired.....should have known!!

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Rabie Chaki v Filippo Volandri
Selection	Chaki
Strength	10/10
Date	10/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 4.50
Reasoning	Volandri is not several levels above Chaki and I expect him to come through. He's got home advantage and his record in Morroco from last year tells me he will win this first round to. Last year he defeated Jean Rene Lisnard in first round in Marrakech challenger and he seems to play well enough to win in first round at home. Never really like Italians at all since they rarely impress. The Morrocan wild cards played well yesterday but all three lost to superior opposition but I expect this one to come through.

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Rabie Chaki v Filippo Volandri
Selection	Chaki
Strength	10/10
Date	10/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Bet365 @ 4.50
Reasoning	Volandri is not several levels above Chaki and I expect him to come through. He's got home advantage and his record in Morroco from last year tells me he will win this first round to. Last year he defeated Jean Rene Lisnard in first round in Marrakech challenger and he seems to play well enough to win in first round at home. Never really like Italians at all since they rarely impress. The Morrocan wild cards played well yesterday but all three lost to superior opposition but I expect this one to come through.

Chaki v Volandri 3-6 2-6 After this useless effort by Chaki he wont get any more wild cards this year. Chocking play by both players and it looked like Chaki was playing in his pyjamas as he seemed to have forgot to get out of bed and the shorts really looked like a pyjamas.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Timea Bacsinszky - Kirsten Flipkens
Selection	Kirsten Flipkens
Strength	10/10
Date	10/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	William Hill @ 1.61 (Back)
Reasoning	The Swiss girl Bacsinszky has not a singles match since Sidney. She's lost five in a row and one of those matches was against Flipkens in Dubai. The Belgian was a winner that time around in two sets and I can obviously see her taking this one too.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Olga Govortsova - Iveta Benesova
Selection	Olga Govortsova
Strength	10/10
Date	10/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 1.61 (Back)
Reasoning	Benesova in really poor form this year. She was awful last week in Monterrey and I just can't see her moving past 1st round here in Indian Wells. Govortsova is way better player and beat Benesova recently in Dubai, taking that match in two sets. Definitely Belorussian can do the same thing here.

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) yi-maoi zhou to beat kimberly couts at 8-13 bet365 3 points!! this match is in the itf challenger at clearwater today at 3pm! zhou is an up-and-coming chinese player(18 years) who has had a good start to the year!! she won a challenger in pinguo in january and was also a finalist at quanzhao!! she is on the verge of playing at tier one level tennis as she beat ivanova and yonemura (neither worldbeaters) before losing to chan in pattaya! and she also beat rogowska in kuala lumpar before losing in three sets to sema of japan which is no disgrace as sema is a player who has qualified for grand slams in the past!! this just suggests to me that she is a level way ahead of couts! couts is world 296 and she lost her last 4 matches in straight sets to osterloh,fujiwara, molinara (world 364) and naoimi broady in this tournament!! she's only here as a lucky loser!! her confidence cant be too high and i feel that the zhou has plenty of wins under her belt this year so is confiedent and hungry and anyway has shown that she's performing at a level much higher than couts this year so far so 8-13 looks to be a great price!!!

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Sorana Cirstea - Kaia Kanepi
Selection	Kaia Kanepi -4.5 (Asian Handicap)
Strength	10/10
Date	10/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.90 (Back)
Reasoning	Cirstea in awful form. Haven't won a match since Aussie open. Remember her playing in Paris. She was 3-0 up against Oudin in 1st round and then just fell apart and has been awful ever since. Kanepi has regained some decent form and will do the job today.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Ioana Raluca Olaru - Polona Hercog
Selection	Ioana Raluca Olaru
Strength	10/10
Date	10/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Stan James @ 2.62 (Back)
Reasoning	These two are typical clay players who try to avoid playing on hard. I have a feeling that Olaru is a bit better player overall on all surfaces than Hercog and think that Romanian girl should not be an underdog here. Hercog did have a great tournament in Acapulco, but that was on clay. On hard she's not that good. Could be an upset here.

[mab]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Olga Govortsova - Iveta Benesova
Selection	Olga Govortsova
Strength	10/10
Date	10/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Paddy Power @ 1.61 (Back)
Reasoning	Benesova in really poor form this year. She was awful last week in Monterrey and I just can't see her moving past 1st round here in Indian Wells. Govortsova is way better player and beat Benesova recently in Dubai' date=' taking that match in two sets. Definitely Belorussian can do the same thing here.

yeah i agree with you on this one mate. govortsova beat her a little while back as well and shouldn't have any unknown difficulties. i'm going to go with BAMMER over srebotnik and BALTACHA over glatch for 1.76 (TAB). If you add on OUDIN it comes up to 2.23 as well. womens tennis is so up in the air all the time though so the money's staying low until the men start.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Patty Schnyder - Tathiana Garbin
Selection	Under 21.5
Strength	10/10
Date	10/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Unibet @ 1.75 (Back)
Reasoning	This one is interesting. Patty of course a better player but my problem with her is that her mind lately hasn't been on tennis. The Swiss veteran did show up to play in Paris but only because that is one of her favorite tournaments. Lost in 2nd round to Oudin, then went to Dubai where she threw away match against Olaru. Garbin hast lost all three times these two played, but I wouldn't go against the Italian. I Think the best option here is to go for under, because there are two options: 1) Schnyder will play serious stuff and crush Garbin in two sets or will give this match away, also in two.

[WinningTipster]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) Hi guys, Three picks for WTA Indian Wells tournament 1st round. HERCOG TO D OLARU @ 1.62 betfair Hercog is a very talented young player at career-high of 51 with good forehand and good defensive slice backhand. She had extremely good results on clay over the last 12 months and she surely will prove herself on hard as well. Olaru is really an average WTA tour player. GOVORTSOVA TO D BENESOVA @ 1.57 pinnaclesports The two play similar game actually (Benesova is a left-hander though) but Benesova’s results and game this year are really poor – she never was the most powerful player but lately she has lost a lot of consistency as well. Just 2 weeks ago in Dubai Govortsova was a convincing winner by 6-4 6-1. BAMMER TO D SREBOTNIK @ 1.39 pinnaclesports Srebotnik is coming back from a long absence due to injury and she lost both of her WTA matches in 2010 in straight sets. Bammer with her very consistent game is still going OK winning large % of matches against lesser opponents.

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Kevin Kim v Brian Dabul
Selection	Kevin Kim
Strength	10/10
Date	10/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 1.72 (Back)
Reasoning	Went against Kim yesterday and he was very comfortable against Evans. Fancy him to make it through today. Think his level is generally higher than Dabul and he deserves to be a solid fav. Dabul more of a clay courter, got a win yesterday over Amritraj but his level is pretty low. I make Kim closer to 1.50 here.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Ricardo Mello v Nick Lindahl
Selection	Ricardo Mello
Strength	10/10
Date	10/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Bet1128 @ 1.55 (Back)
Reasoning	Mello has really got his level back up lately and he should be too strong here. He can get himself back into the top 100 with a decent run in IW. He's a level or two above Lindahl who is a guy I don't really like. He won a tough match against Kendrick yesterday but I can't see him going any further.

Sport	Tennis
Event	Bjorn Phau v Dieter Kindlemann
Selection	Bjorn Phau
Strength	10/10
Date	10/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Bet1128 @ 1.65 (Back)
Reasoning	Price is dropping on this. Phau is a player I like, and I back him quite often (he's my friend, not my wallets :-(). Really like his game and he seems in reasonable form at this moment. Kindlemann would probably like it a bit quicker and I think Phau will be comfortable in this game.

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) michelle larcher de brito to beat dulgheru at 5-6!! 2 points bet365 i'm going with larcher de brito again here!! she beat zakapalova and rus in qualifying and did well at this tournament last year!! dulgheru is basically a clay court specialist and she won a tier one clay court event last summer beating alona bondarenko in the final!! but she really has disappointed since! apart from running wickmayer close in the australian open and beating a woefully out-of-form schynder this year her results look a little pathetic!! losses to cibulkova(6-0,6-3),vesnina(6-1,6-4) bartoli(6-1,6-2) cornet (6-1,6-0)! now in fairness, these losses came against good players but the scorelines look very unhealthy indeed!! it's also worth noting that last year she barely could win a match on hard court and has results much worse than this years!! in a way,it's hard to understand as she obviously has talent but i feel with de britos qualifying run and confidence up that she will be ready to give a good account of herself and there's no doubting her talent!! too many question marks over dulgheru for me!!

[Cramer]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Patty Schnyder v Tathiana Garbin
Selection	Tathiana Garbin
Strength	10/10
Date	10/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 2.18 (Back)
Reasoning	Really don't see Garbin as the outsider for this. Pattys motivation is questionable, and she's done very little this year. She's only shown up for Indian Wells twice (despite I guess having good enough ranking for main draw the past 10 years) and lost 1st round twice. Garbin I think is playing pretty well this year. Won a few matches and losses in main draws have been to Clijsters, Azarenka, Pennetta and Pavlyuchenkova, all of which you'd expect her to lose. I think Garbin is favourite for this.

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) has anybody got an opinion on the brands-delgado match?? initially i really liked the delgado price of evens and even though there's been money for delgado since ,i'm beginning to have second thoughts! has anyone any useful information or opinions on this match-up to help me make up my mind???

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells) kanepi to beat cirstea 2-0 evens boylesports! 2 points i agree with psycho on this one!! cirstea is simply in woeful form this year! cirstea is a player i really like and i'm sure there will be a time this year when she will be very backable at great prices partly because of the awful run of form she is in now!! she's a very aggressive player but i saw her a few weeks ago and she was mis-timing her shots horribly! she was injured over the christmas break and is obviously finding it difficult to re-gain her form (maybe she's gettin distracted by all this modeling work she's being offered) either way her ecent results are woeful! she lost last week to errani in monterrey 6-2,6-3 (errani herself is struggling for form) and she's been beaten in straight sets in every match this year except against rogowska!! losing 6-0,6-2 tow weeks ago to sharon fichman is a horrible result!! there's something clearly wrong with her!! on the other side of things kaia kanepi seems to be finding form this year with plenty of wins under her belt....she's beaten the likes of rus,chan and parra santonja and been very competive against zheng and kvitova (lost both matches in 3rd set tie-breaks!! she probably won't need to be at her best to sweep past cirstea!!!some time this year sorana will catch her form and be a force to be reckoned with again but there is no sign of this happening any time soon!

[Borovnica]

Re: Tennis (indian Wells)

Sport	Tennis
Event	Cirstea - Kanepi
Selection	Cirstea
Strength	7/10
Date	10/03/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Nordicbet @ 3.35 (Back)
Reasoning	I have to admit that this play doesnt look the brightest as Cirstea results lately are really poor and on paper Kanepi"s form is better.But i watched her match against Daniela in Monterrey and she was pathetic.She couldnt stay in rallies longer than 3 or 4 shots and conditions here are tougher and shouldnt suit her game.Her biggest shot serve isnt working also in last three of her matches as she made almost 30 df.This spot looks the right one for Cirstea as over the years here most succesfull were players with controlled solid baseline game.Kanepi could have the upper hand if she can overturn bad serving displays from last two tournaments,if not Cirstea should be bad matchup today.H2H is split 2-2 with Cirstea taking the one from last year.I think bookies here took only bad result of Cirstea in consideration but Kanepi doesnt play anything special lately and everything else favours Sorana at this spot.