Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11)

[RussP]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Very well done Chris. Could have been even better too had No Complaining held on. Stick to your guns mate, I'm following with great interest:ok

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Thanks Russ I am enjoying the studying again go a little more in depth etc. its a new angle and refreshing in a way! Thank you Russ!!

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 2.10 Southwell Totally gutted already wrote this out once so will do a quick write up! Basically Buzz Bird ran as if amiss last time out although goes well here same as Alpha Tauri who also has stamina to prove! For me Avonrose won quite comfrotably going away in a course claimer and was claimed subsequently by new yard who step her back upto a mile which is sure to suit her and handicapper felt fit to reduce her mark by 3lb which seems a strange one to me having beat Majuro who finished second on very favourable terms. The other that catches the eye is Mcconnell who has a good record here 4 from 10 and finally bounced back to his best last time out again winning going away, handicapper up 7lb but still 1lb below highest winning mark and therefore remains well treated to go again after another small break which he clearly relishes. 0.3pt win Mcconnell 0.2pt win Avonrose 3.00 Kempton Feelin Foxy will need a career best and rather got run of race last time out wont get it today with Riflessione and Elhamri in the lineup also not drawn well. Surprised to see Love You Louis so short in the market having looked held by the handicapper last time out when having every chance last time out when going out like a light bulb behind Breathless Kiss. Grudge looks massively over priced as does Absa Lutte. Absa Lutte is a hard horse to predict at times and as I have said before clearly has problems (often runs in bandages and often late withdrawal) but she remains on a fair handicap mark having won off this mark in the past, didnt get the best of starts last time out and was never a factor worth forgiving perhaps and should have come on for the run and far better drawn today and could have more to give than current mark suggests. Grudge is another worthy of plenty of consideration has been currently running well, having stayed on well for strong urging behind Feelin Foxy last week gets a 6lb turnaround for 2 lengths and could make all the difference and is only 2lb above winning mark and of course a personal best required but should be thereabouts. 0.2pt win Grudge 6/1 hills 0.2pt win Absa Lutte 16/1 hills

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Total staked today: 0.9pts Grudge non runner +0.2pts Mcconnell Wins @ 13/8(adv) +0.79 Total return: 0.99pts Thread totals: Staked: 8.2 Returned: 7.07 Tomorrows bets: 2.55 Lingfield Suntrap won in very good style in a CD maiden, to be honest that was very poor event and handicapper taken a dim view to that win putting him up 12lb so much more needed back in handicap and visor needs to work again. Pertius also won a CD maiden probably a little stronger maiden, disapointing last time out in handicap when getting a tardy start and driven along to quicken the pace and perhaps mark is about in the right place for now. Strike Force only just failed to reel in Mighty Clarets last time out over extended 1m1f trip at Wolvers last time out, gets in off the same mark today and Gannon in brilliant form on the AW this winter takes the ride and a repeat performance sure to see him go very close again. Kidlat had been showing signs of a return to form recently before landing a decent looking AW apprentice handicap on Monday and gets into this race without a penalty and remains on a very attractive mark still 5lb below highest winner mark and clearly wanted to win that race on monday when battling really toughly to get back up and could easily be game for another win from good draw. The other I like the look of is Fonterutoli who shaped well on first start for new yard over CD on penultimate start before shaping well again but although just looking as though he was out stayed over 12f, handicapper put him up 2lb for that recent 2nd over CD and winner has since gone in again and looks a very useful sort. He could still be open to more improvement yet for new yard if that really has refreshed him. 0.1pt win Strike Force 11/2 vc 0.3pt win Kidlat 10/3 willhill 0.1pt win Fonterutoli 8/1 bet365 4.35 Kempton Stirling Bridge looks to have a massive chance to double up today having looked a handicap blot last time out, he doesnt look the easiest ride hung badly badly left on handicap debut last time out but still ran out a comfortable 6length winner and a 6lb penalty shouldnt cause any problems if repeating that shame they couldnt find a race on one of the other AW tracks to try and help correct the hanging but perhaps it was just greeness. Ryleee Moch is the likely F/C bet having finished 2nd on his last 2 starts and looks in good form but was beaten by Stirling Bridge last time out, and excuses today at southwell on fibresand of course. The other that might put up some opposition is Dunmore Boy who runs for the inform Fahey yard, but tackling this 6f on polytrack looks a move in the wrong direction despite winning over 6f at southwell last time out but race was poor one and ran to suit. 0.5pt win Stirling Bridge matched at 1.7 on betfair 5.35 Kempton Piscean must have a chance to land a nice pot here, he was finishing like a train at lingfield last time out after been given a bad ride. Baker gets back on board today and a smaller field. He was beaten by Silaah and Five Star Junior that day but meets them on 9lb and 7lb better terms today respectively for about 1 1/2lengths and for that reason should take all the beating in the form of his life. Brave Prospector was better than form figures suggest in kempton listed event last time out and stable in good form so no surprise to see him go better today. 0.3pt win Piscean 5/2 bet365 0.2pt win Brave Prospector 5/2 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Looks an extremely poor day on the AW today. 1.20 Southwell I cant see much getting into this bar last years winner Harlech Castle and the unexposed Benato the Great. Harlech Castle returned to something like some form over CD in claimer last month when finishing well but this was probably still not enough to win a race of this calibre at the moment for all he is on a very attractive mark 14lb below last winning mark. For me the only horse in the race is Benato The Great he looks a real class act, still running very green last time out but easily made it 2 from 2 in his career and confirmed his liking for this surface, up 7lb for that effort but useful claimer takes off 3lb and still looks well ahead of his mark. 0.5pt win Benato The Great 5/4 bet365 6.10 Wolverhampton Hardly inspiring again but I feel Jezza is very hard to oppose today. Bivouac has been in good form recently proving his loving for fibresand last twice when finishing 1st and 2nd in jumpers bumpers but prior to that looked held by the handicapper at his favoured fibresand venue and perhaps worth opposing in handicap company. Houston Dynamo was second behind Jezz last time out and has 7lb in hand of him today for just over 2 lengths but Jezza was winning going away and could have won by more so he looks held on that form. Calculating has been out of form although on a good enough mark but likely to need the run after a short break. Treacle Tart looks worth another chance but not sure about this massive step up in trip so put off slightly. So now onto Jezza again looks to be going the right way even though the staying division on the AW is never very strong he has progressed nicely in weak races and won very easily last time out winning going away and could have easily won by 5+lengths or more handicapper felt fit for an 8lb rise but at the moment he remains ahead of his mark in my opinion 0.5pt win Jezza 11/10 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 3.55 Southwell Poor looking race but only one that makes me get slightly interested on a poor day. Double Carpet looks well worth opposing at 5/2 for all he may be capable of landing a weak race like this having won last time out at kempton, but a 6lb penalty and his record here is enough to put me off. Its hard to see many of these others getting involved neither, Fair Bunny could be dangerous as does have winning form over CD and on last winning mark but recent efforts disappointing. ItsThursdayAlready had promised to be a bit better than a 50's rated handicapper in his younger days but went the wrong way but returned to form recently with new yard havng been picked up cheaply and recent efforts over this course offer hope and drops back to 6f for first time on this surface and has looked as though a trule run 6f round here would suit better than the testing 7f, runs off same mark today having finished 3/4l in a course handicap over 7f last time out and must be there again. 0.5pt win Itsthursdayalready 3/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Staked: 3 Results: Strike Force N/R +0.1 Stirling Bridge WIN +0.85 Itsthursdayalready WIN +2 Thread totals: Staked: 11.2 Returned: 10.02 Tomorrows only bet: 4.05 Wolverhampton Only 7 to post and in my opinion there is only one you can confidently rule out and that is Red Rani who would be better off in a weaker race than this as running well out of the handicap after showing nothing in maidens. The next to fall for me is Avonvalley for all there has been glimmers of hope recently and has dropped to a very attractive mark but none of the yards runners can be taken seriously without a win for over a year and even struggle to get horses placed awful trainer! The next to fall is Goddess of light who did win over 5f at lingfield early in career but gone the wrong way since but is another dropping the weights again but needs to offer more before becoming backable. The next to fall is Mrs Mogg, after a disappointing season Dascombe yard is having a much better AW season but could just need this run after 119 days off the track and 6f looks plenty sharp enough aswell. Another in the same boat could be Kate Skate having first run for 76 days and also signs that yard arent quite in same form they were. For me Dreamacha looks hard to beat even after 58days off the track. Won in good style over CD 3 starts ago and won as if there was still plenty more to come, little dissapointing next 2 starts off new mark and perhaps just needed a break to freshen him up and now could get back to winning ways with capable apprentice taking off a handy 5lb. Sparking might be worth having a saver on as she has looked at home on the AW recently and ran a creditable race in a weak maiden last time out to suggest she remains in form and remains on workable mark back in handicaps having placed off a 1lb higher mark on turf! 0.3pt win Dreamacha 7/4 bet365 0.2pt win Sparking 4/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 2.25 Lingfield Efistorm remains on a very interesting mark as I commented on recently but he has failed to spark on recent starts and needs to show something before getting involved. Garstang ran an interesting race since he hadnt been seen for 190 days last time out but probably remains on a mark high enough to hold him against progressive sorts like Picansort and Estonia. Picansort will be saver in the race having won a 5f maiden at kempton and then finishing a little tamely over 6f back there, could be more at home back over 5f and certainly open to more yet and mark doesnt look beyond him given correct conditions. Estonia has gone the right way since going handicapping having won well over CD 2 times, bumped into potentially well treated Yourelikemefrank last time out under a penalty and could go one better again today off a 1lb lower mark and Gannon remaining in hot form in the saddle! 0.4pt win Estonia 2/1 vc 0.2pt win Picansort 4/1 bet365 4.45 Kempton Scary Movie won a seller last time out and joins a capable yard but a 6lb penalty back in handicap looks extremely harsh. Turjuman worth a second glance having won round here twice in the spring but that was over 12f and certainly did shape as if he needed a few furlongs more last time out in claimer over 10f. Kidlat did disappoint last time out like many do after winning apprentice handicaps but handicapper giving him more than a chance not changing his mark, and has previously won off a 5lb higher mark over CD although draw not been that kind for a front runner. Strike force is slightly better drawn and could give Kidlat something to think about just pipped at the post last time out and that form is workng out reasonably well and handicapper could have taken a harsher only putting a progressive sort up 2lb again inform Gannon takes the ride only concern would be he drifted dramatically in market before being declared a non runner last week! 0.2pt win Kidlat 5/2 bet365 0.3pt win Strike Force 5/1 bet365 5.15 Kempton At last a decent looking handicap that could spring a surprise, I am perhaps surprised to see Stratton Banker as big as he is knowing what his trainer can be like for a gamble but I am still not interested shaping as if 6f was ideal when winning over 5f time before last but didnt get a race run to suit last time out over 6f but now goes back to 5f I am just not sure that will suit again. The yards other runner Earlsmedic can be quite useful on AW but has done all his winning over further aswell and doesnt look to need 5f. Feelin Foxy keeps bettering herself at the moment but a further 6lb penalty looks even tougher in a strong field although well draw to front run and cant see much other front rank pace! So 3 for me in this competitive handicap, the smallest stake going on Ray Of Joy who is worth another chance on the back of the win on her penultimate start staying on well to get up, only 1lb higher last time out when not getting any sort of run when looking full of running last time and was heavily eased and could be worth another chance of revised mark and switch to 5f perhaps no bad thing and wide draw not over hinderance for an exaggerated hold up performer. Grudge continues to run very respectably last twice having won 2 handicaps early in the winter, mark remains static because of consistency although handicap could easily have added a 1lb or 2 by now and therefore giving him a chance to better himself and in current form he could easily be upto posting a personal best. For me my main bet will be Absa Lutte who was well backed unsurprisingly from a massive price last time out to run best race for a while under this jockey who takes off a very handy 7lb further to the massive 5lb reduction in handicap mark (although only recieved 4lb of that as is 1lb out of handicap) and course record is very impressive 4 from 8 never running a bad race around here well drawn in stall 11 looks poised for another big run. 0.1pt win Ray Of Joy 12/1 vc 0.1pt win Grudge 8/1 pp 0.3pt win Absa Lutte 5/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 12.50 Southwell Exopuntia has run well since winning over CD in the middle of the december off a 7lb lower mark, ran creditably but didnt put up much of a fight round here last time out behind the Lock Master on thursday. Zarius beat Powerful Presence last time out and receieves lumps more weight again this time but that was Powerful Presences first start for new yard and first after a break and has clearly come on for that run having won the next 2 times out winning super easily, a further 5lb rise in the weights today sure to make things tougher yet again but still looks unexposed and open to more improvement on this surface and therefore looks hard to beat. 0.5pt win Powerful Presence 3.35 Southwell Follow the flog has a tendency to pop up at a nice price every now and again and did just that last time out in a 6 runner race round here over a mile, race unfolded well for him with himself and runner up coming from a long way off the pace unlikely to unfold so well today in this better field and also concerns over his poor starting at the moment over this shorter trip but has won off a mark this high on turf before so could have a chance but for me Conry shaped well enough behind Dubai Hills last time out just 2 lengths behind (Dubai was perhaps idling in front and was heavily eased at line anyhow) only 5lb higher since winning at wolverhampton in the autumn and has won off a 3lb higher mark on turf so could potentially have something in hand. The other that interests me is Transonic who absolutely loves it round here and does stay further than this which often helps round here and has 4 CD wins to his name and rarely runs a bad race around here. Still 3lb above last winning mark but is the sort of horse that could easily pick up a race off a career higher mark especially in current form in better races than this and yard appear in good form! 0.3pt win Conry 10/3 bet365 0.2pt win Transonic 5/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 3.20 Wolverhampton The winged assasin has gone well for this yard but looked held by the handicapper last time out and also takes a big step up in trip. Stadium of light looks a southwell specialist having won a maiden and ran well in 2 handicaps round there, lower marks than todays have looked to stretch him on polytrack before and is perhaps worth taking on. Rhythm Stick is worth only a small saver in my opinion because on form he would have a solid chance having won well last twice over CD beating Dontpaytheferryman last time out who has since won 3 times at southwell latest off a 17lb higher mark so obviously reads well with only an 8lb rise in the weights but yard dont appear in great form at the moment and concern over why he has been off the track for so long. Kames Park looks the value bet here at 13/2, he is a very useful capable performer on his day but he has some very quirky habits including idling badly if hitting the front too soon and has to be delivered extremely late, should get something to aim at with Rhythm Stick in the line up. He has showed he is in good heart last 2 starts finishing well. Looks very well handicapped 3lb below last AW winning mark and 8lb below last turf handicap winning mark. Spencer did give him a good ride on 3 starts back hitting the front slightly too early and losing the race so hopefully learnt from that. 0.2pt win Rhythm Stick 13/8 bet365 0.3pt win Kames Park 13/2 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 2.30 Lingfield Freddies Girl is potentially well handicapped at the moment but just signs the form is dwindling off. Even Bolder has been running very well of late and returns to 5f after getting pipped on the post last time out over 6f in a 3 way photo handicapper taken a harsh view of that putting him up 2lb although winner has gone in again very convingcingly, concern is he has never won off a mark this high and may just need this run after a short break. Efistorm shaped much more encouringingly again last time out after a couple of disaappointing efforts runs off the same mark today and looks well handicapped on best form 9lb below last winning mark. But for me the main bet has to be Estonia who infact finished 3rd last time out just infront of Efistorm and does need to officially find 3lb improvement to uphold that form but having said that she went extremely wide round the home bend and gave a huge advantage to those that beat her and after doing that she was fast finishing to suggest she could still win off an ever increasing mark having won twice over CD at backend of last year, Jockey did report she was sore so obvious concerns over that and how she is turned out so quickly again but obviously yard are happy with her and yard appear in good heart at the moment with Onceuponatime running well. *This was written last night before Estonia was declared a non runner* 0.2pt win Efistorm 11/2 coral 5.30 Kempton Good looking class 4 1 mile handicap where many could have a shout! Gallantry is worth a second look having won on penultimate start quite convingcingly beating Hip Hip Hooray by 2 1/4lengths was far from disgraced in a race not run to suit off revised mark and this bigger field should provide a race run at a decent pace so has to be respected, having said that Hip Hip Hooray gets just a 1lb turnaround in the weights as she has since won beating the useful unexposed Buaiteor last time out and she has been put up 4lb she too needs a strong pace to chase but tends to be far more reliable than Gallantry these days and appears to love it round here. Jodawes is the least exposed runner in the field with only 6 starts to his name but has already proved himself on the AW with 3 runs 1 win and 2 places and that win coming last time out off the back of a lay off over CD 6lb rise for winning by an easy 2 lengths looks fair and has since been given another short break I guess in the hope to keep him fresh and aslong as he doesnt bounce may still have more improvement yet but wide draw is off putting and is probably a winner another day in my opinion. Lisahane Bog is another that respects plenty of interest in current vein of form winning on penultimate start 4lb rise for that win leaves him something to find although ran respectably from revised mark last time out when not getting a clear run through though once in clear stayed on well and has won off a 1lb higher mark before and is usually fairly reliable. At finally at a price Highly Regal may bounce back to form not been in best form for a long while now but was set hopeless task last time out when trying 2mile drops back to a much more suitable trip and is well handicapped 6lb lower than last winning mark and has a very good record around here 6 from 16 and 50% strike rate over CD and is far too big at 20/1. 0.1pt e/w Highly Regal 20/1 coral 0.1pt win Hip Hip Hooray 12/1 bet365 0.1pt win Lisahane Bog 12/1 vc 7.00 Kempton The staying division is usually considered extremely weak on the AW but this has brought out some decent stayers and several again can be given a chance on their best form that said several do need to prove stamina. Phoenix flight is closely matched with Ethics Girl on a run 3 weeks ago when Ethics Girl got up in first time tongue tie, that wasnt a very strong race and meet perhaps some more classy sorts today off there revised marks and concerns over Phoenix flights attitude have also surfaced at times often looking as if he is not going through with his effort. Porgy won extremely well last time out but steps up 4f today and stamina isnt assured and this has to be a major concern in a strong looking race at a skinny price. The 3 that interest me the most are Benhego, Danis Girl and Dalhaan. Benhego made an encouraging return to the track last time out after a lay off of nearly 600 days when shaping well for a long way before fading and looking as if in need of the run, should come on for the run for a yard more than capable of doing well with this sort and looks on a good mark on the back of that and only 4lb higher than last win and has a good strike rate on AW 3 from 7 although draw not been over kind in stall 4. Dani's Girl looked a sort that would take to the AW game this time last year when winning over CD quite convingcingly off a mark just 1lb lower than todays but has since gone the wrong way both on the flat and over hurdles been given a short break and if that has brought a spark about she may be dangerous from what looks a lenient mark again over a trip she is guaranteed to stay she was a class act in her prime when running in Grp3 races and competitive handicaps over in Ireland so if recapturing any of that 20/1 is far too big!! And finally Dalhaan who will be my main bet having won over CD very very easily last time out, handicapper taking no chances whacking him up a massive 8lb but did do it easily after falling along way in the weights having been rated as high as 88 in 2008, he is unexposed on the AW and there may still be more to come from this lightly raced sort. 0.1pt e/w Danis Girl 20/1 lads 0.1pt win Benhego 8/1 lads 0.2pt win Dalhaan 12/1 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 1.20 Lingfield Dubburg is proving extremely hard to win with but has run with credit on recent starts, often running on strongly far too late, yet to run around lingfield but track ought to suit with the opening home bend and speed it brings to a finisher like dubburg and extra furlong could also bring about significant improvement, mark has remained static for all placed efforts but keeps shaping as if he could easily defy the mark. The other runner who I just cant give up on is Before The War who as Ive said before caught my eye at Newmarket in summer when staying on powerfully for Cumani that day since changed yard and shown little until last time out when getting going far too late yet again takes a further step up intrip which looks a positive move and another 3lb drop in weights looks very lenient and is far too big price. 0.2pt win Dubburg 6/1 vc 0.15pt e/w Before The War 18/1 bet365 2.20 Lingfield An extremely weak looking handicap with several exposed runners and a couple of unexposed runners and for me its one of the pontential unexposed ones in Lady Rossetti, she runs for the in form Tregonning yard who are having a better AW season than turf season and this runner doesnt look anything special and is likely to want further in time on breeding but she has shown enough that she could take a weak race like this on what looks a very fair mark having beat a couple of 60 rated horses last time out. 0.2pt win Lady Rosetti 9/2 vc 2.50 Lingfield Probably one of the better races of the day and several can be given a shout. Inef is an interesting runner for me and well worth a small e/w wager at what looks a big price. She comes from a useful family and on breeding might have more to offer over hurdles at a later date with her being close relative to the useful Silmi but dam was a useful 6f/7f horse so that offers hope on the flat at this sort of trip. She showed modest form in France and was a fairly big purchase for a yard that can do well with these sorts and often get a few big priced winners often mixing them over jumps and flat. Wilfred Pickles cannot be ignored after finishing just a neck second to final drive last time out who has since gone on to win 3 more times off a 17lb higher mark last time out, he shaped as if in need of the run just fading late on but does have a tedency to go well fresh so has since been given another 50 day break but could still have more to offer having been lightly raced for a 5yr old. Blue Moon looks worth a chance on the bid for a hatrick clearly not the easiest ride often needing a lot of work to get going and can look a bit ungamely in front and therefore needs patient tactics so looks the sort that wont win by far but has long looked well ahead of handicapper and a 4lb rise for latest victory looks fair and I think it is interesting that Ryan is using Julie Burke to take off a handy 5lb having said she wouldnt ride until turf to protect her claim so theyre clearly trying to get something out of this filly and is currently 2 from 2 at lingfield so conditions fine! 0.3pt win Blue Moon 4/1 vc 0.1pt win Wilfred Pickles 8/1 bet365 0.05pt e/w Inef 40/1 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 3.40 Lingfield For me I think its hard to split Dichoh and Sasheen. Dichoh is capable sort who has done plenty of winning in time 10 wins from 57 runs although hasnt won for a while he proved his well being last time out when only going down a head short of the fast finishing Buxton up a 1lb for that effort but still 5lb well handicapped on old form and visor back on instead of cheekpieces. Sasheen is is the opposite to Dichoh she is potentially unexposed and probably ran her best race to date last time out when only beaten a neck by cat hunter over CD last time out and gets to race off 2lb lower mark today before going back up 4lb tomorrow so looks well treated and could still have more to offer although draw could have been kinder! 0.2pt win Dichoh 5/1 vc 0.2pt win Sasheen 11/2 bet365 7.35 Wolverhampton Last race of the day for my other bet for the day and its a pretty weak affair and in my opinion should be cominated by the 4 at the top of the market, I am going to oppose Cheveyo simply because he appears to flatter in the finishing and hangs badly and puts me off for win purposes and also those runs are on the fibresand and not polytrack. Also going to oppose current favourite Duke of Rainford who beat my 2 selections last time out beating Bluebok by 1/2 length but he didnt get the clearest passage and gets a 6lb turn around in the weights which looks more than enough for 1/2 length and he has been running consistently recently and is well handicapped last winning off a 12lb higher mark! The other I am gonna back is Tyrannorsaurus Rex who again finished behind Duke Of Rainford by 3 lengths, and has been running better than form figures suggest he does need to find a race falling apart after it has been run at a strong pace as he has to be produced extremely late and often takes the hard route through but again is very well handicapped now 22lb lower than last win on turf and if building on recent promise has to be involved in such a weak affair! 0.3pt win Bluebok 7/2 bet365 0.1pt win Tyrannosauras Rex 11/2 bet365 1 for tomorrow(Saturday) 3.40 Lingfield Best race for several weeks on the AW in my opinion but unfortunately doesnt appear to be any confirmed front runner which could turn this very tactical, but that said there are several keen going sorts none more so than Sioux Rising and I wouldnt be surprised if something goes off like a scalded cat which could set this up for a finisher like Breathless Kiss who was ultimately impressive on penultimate start when never looking like winning a couple furlong out to win very easily under a brilliant ride from Fallon didnt cut much mustard last time out on revised mark in a race not run to suit but does drop a 1lb in the weights and if getting something to chase could be dangerous under the master of dangerous ride Spencer, dont like betting on him but he does ride these sorts well every now and again! The other for me worth an interest has to be Anne Of Kiev she was beaten last time out quite convincingly by Perfect Act who reopposes on 6lb worse terms today and was well beaten last time out as if mark was beyond her and not much went right for Anne Of Kiev last time out tracked wide and lack of cover and was a little keen, probably has better form round here and is worth another chance off this mark! 0.3pt win Anne of Kiev 0.2pt win Breathless Kiss

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 2.10 Kempton Final Rhapsody was lively in the market last time out in first time visor and it did bring about some improvement when staying on from the clouds and would have finished a lot closer with a slightly better time ride etc. is 3lb better off with Replicator today and he might not get such an easy lead this time so is well worth taking on with Final Rhapsody to turn the tables. Jonny Ebeneezer ended a huge losing run last time out in front of Chinese Democracy who has since run well again, he was a class act in his younger days group class, tumbled in the weights and could be capable of defying a penalty if anything of his old sparkle remains at this lowly level even under a 6lb penalty he looks feasibly treated. 0.35pt win Final Rhapsody 0.15pt win Jonny Ebeneezer 3.20 Kempton Cat bells is sure to be popular and a short price in the market and probably worth taking on having won very easily in a much weaker race last time out although did well having lost several lengths at start but that form suspect and 6lb penalty in a stronger race could find her out today. Where Susie is a consistent sort who goes well on the AW surfaces but concern most of her form has come with a run under her belt and will probably be better for a run. For me Dillys Maud is an interesting runner only losing out by a short head to Ice Road Trucker last time out up 3lb for that which perhaps a little harsh but the blinkers do appear to be bringing about some improvement and perhaps more can be expected yet over these extended trips. The other interesting runner is Adoyen Spice who caused a massive shock back in November over CD and has since run with credit all starts since and none more so than last time out when looking a difficult ride again and getting going far too late over shorter trip at wolverhampton a return to Kempton and a return to this trip should be far more up her street and again she could still have more to offer being so unexposed. 0.2pt win Dillys Maud 0.3pt win Adoyen Spice 3.50 Kempton Think I am right in saying this is the first London Mile Qualifier and this usually produce competitive fields and favourites dont often do too well in these races. Tony Carrolls horses have started the new year in fine form and a couple more success's yesterday again proves the form of the yard and both of his runners have to be given a chance here. Firstly Jake The Snake who was very unlucky not to win on his season reappearance when nearly biten in the finish by caprio which cost him the race but proves he is in top form and perhaps continue his slow steady upward curve from last year only 3lb higher than last win draw could perhaps have been kinder. His other runner is Jordaura who is having his first run for him and comes here fit after an abmissmal effort over hurdles for another yard 2 weeks ago. He proved very frustrating in the summer often shaping as if a win was around the corner just kept bumping into things and also running in much stronger races than this and now returns to the AW on a reasonable mark if getting a good pace to chase and a route through as again he will be finishing late. Finally the other that interests me is Big Bay who is another running for an inform yard in Chapple-Hyam and has dropped a long way in the weights after several disappointing efforts in the summer and autumn struggling to beat a rival home but something like his best last time out when closing late on over todays CD and a further 1lb lower today and if back to best he is well handicapped 5lb lower than last win over CD in Nov 09. 0.2pt win Jordaura 16/1 hills 0.2pt win Jake The Snake 8/1 hills 0.1pt win Big Bay 7/1 hills

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 4.25 Lingfield Good looking handicap, Lisahane Bog is a useful sort on the AW and did win over 7f at Kempton at end of last year but has shaped as if his current mark currently beyond him in last 2 runs although has won off 1lb higher mark, also probably better over 7f on the back of recent efforts. Charlie Smirke isnt the easiest to win with as he proved last winter with plenty of placed efforts on the AW but has never shaped as ungenuine he just needs things to fall right shaped as if in good form at the moment on last 2 starts over CD and was running on late last time out, well handicapped on last years form having won off a 3lb higher mark! Hardly ever runs a bad race over CD and is 2 from 7 round here. The other that interests me is Lockantanks who caught my eye last week running on behind the potentially well handicapped Advertisement over 7f round here and shaped as if a mile was desperatly need, gets that today and runs off same mark. 0.3pt win Charlie Smirke 0.1pt win Lockantanks 5.05 Kempton Northern Dare is probably worth taking on at a short price, he came out of the doldrums last time out ahead of Efistorm but he rather had everything given to him that day getting a soft lead very unlikely to get that today with other front runners in lineup in Cape Royal and Fromsong. A 6lb turn around makes Efistorm fairly attractive, 9lb lower on AW than when winning on turf in sumer and has shown plenty to suggest he can pick up a race soon and basically did best of the rest having given Northern Dare the race, runs off same mark today and not badly drawn. Sherjawy is no stranger to the winner circle, was a reguarlar on the AW last winter and won twice including off a 2lb higher mark. Returned to something like his best when behind a potentially unexposed sort who was fairly well supported, has a 25% strike rate around here 5 wins from 20 starts and a good pace guaranteed in this lineup to chase make him even more attractive back over 5f. 0.25pt win Efistorm 0.25pt win Sherjawy

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Results Catchup: Dreamacha +0.83 Sparking -0.2 Estonia -0.4 Picansort -0.2 Kidlat +0.7 Strike Force -0.3 Ray Of Joy -0.1 Grudge -0.1 Absa Lutte -0.3 Powerful Presence -0.5 Conry -0.3 Transonic -0.2 Kames Park -0.3 Rhythm Stick +0.57 Efistorm -0.2 Highly Regal -0.2 Hip Hip Hooray -0.1 Lisahane Bog -0.1 Danis Girl -0.2 Benhego -0.1 Dalhaan -0.2 Dubburg +1.4 Before The War -0.3 Lady Rosetti -0.2 Blue Moon -0.3 Inef -0.1 Wilfred Pickles -0.1 Dichoh -0.2 Sasheen -0.2 Bluebok -0.3 Tyransauras Rex -0.1 Anne Of Kiev +1.65 Breathless Kiss -0.2 Final Rhapsody -0.35 Johnny Ebeneezer -0.15 Dillys Maud -0.2 Adoyen Spice +1.65 Jordaura -0.2 Jake the Snake -0.2 Big Bay -0.1 Thread totals: Staked: 19.9 Returned: 16.82 P/L: -3.09

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 3.25 Lingfield Poor looking contest with the strong favourite being made a non runner, Triskdekaphobia starts his year for a new trainer having his first runner and will be interesting to see which way he goes in the market. He isnt the easiest to predict at the best of times often goes off like a bullet and often depends on how much of a soft lead they give him, he was given a real soft lead and stuck out in a seller on very unfavourable conditions on penultimate start and handicapper reacted quite harshly considering, unable to get to front when last seen so can be forgiven has won off higher marks before so must have a chance in a weak race also gone well fresh. The only horse that comes here in any sort of form really is Black Baccara who has run 3 good races in a row after a poor run that was starting to look never ending, never won other than on first ever start which is a concern but stayed on really strongly last time out over 6f and will need a strong gallop back at 5f but that should be guaranteed with my other selection in the lineup handicapper had his say raising him 3lb but has run well at higher marks before so could be capable. 0.3pt win Black Bacarra 4/1 vc 0.1pt Triskdekaphobia 14/1 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 5.40 Wolverhampton Tight little handicap and several have a chance but one stands out bit like a sore thumb really, I defenetily wanna oppose current favourite Exemplary for the Johnston yard who are as usual having an ok season but they are struggling with some good things in handicaps and most wins have come in maidens recently which has to be a concern with maidens having a tendency to be weak this time of year, also has to prove he stays further than 1m4f and this might just be a step too far?? Kavaloti is an interesting runner and worth a small saver bet on simply because of the yards reputation to ready a horse off the back of a lay off, has been seen since amiss nearly 2 years ago and interesting that Moore yard keep faith in him to keep him in trainging and returns on last winning mark having won at kempton twice in a row at around this trip and has to be of interest especially if any money comes late for him. On best known form Treacle Tart looks a safe option useful form in NHF before switching to the flat and got off the mark in a maiden round here over 12f then disappointed on handicap debut but bounced right back when stepped up in trip over CD last time out beating the rapid improver Jezza by 5 lengths 3lb rise for that form looks lenient and could still have more to offer at this trip. 0.4pt win Treacle Tart 11/4 hills 0.1pt win Kavaloti 14/1 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 1.25 Lingfield Although a reasonable grade several of these struggling to beat rivals home at the moment so anything coming into this in any form has to have a shout. Blue Moon was disappointing behind Buaiteoir here last week and perhaps improvement has leveled out although could bounce back but does need to step up to turn around with Buaiteoir who was impressive over CD last week winning going away in first time eyeshields and if they have the same affect this time round he has to be hard to beat up 5lb for that and that could look a bit lenient considering the style of the win has done all his winning on polytrack and clearly relishes it still improving and open to more yet unlike most of the rest of the field which look exposed to say the least. Kilburn is in good form at the moment and again won really well over CD a couple weeks ago trouncing rivals but that form starting to look rather weak considering how easily Charlie Smirke was brushed aside again earlier in the week and a 7lb rise looks a tad heavy and would need a career best to prevail here but that said current form can count for a lot in these sort of races. 0.3pt win Buariteoir 7/4 bet365 0.2pt win Kilburn 10/3 bet365 4.05 Lingfield The Cayterers shaped ok on first flat run for a while last time out and does go well on the AW but he wasnt very convincing in the finish last time out at certainly suggesting that this trip stretches him and best form has come over a mile at Windsor which is quite an easy mile and therefore doesnt boost confidence over this longer trip at a shortish price. Good Again is another that has it all to prove at this trip for the first time and on breeding certainly doesnt want this extended trip also yards form quite poor at the moment for all she shaped well on her recent start. Scamperdale was better than his form figure suggests last time out in a typical tight finish at lingfield and was rather an eye catcher staying on rather quitely on the inside not really where you wanna be and that was a return to form having gone the wrong way after a good summer and if building on that again would be no surprise to see him figure here having such a good record on the AW aswell 46 runs, 10 wins, 13 placed efforts. Denton has been a real rising star for the Gask yard having started off in a maiden handicap at southwell off a mark of 50 yet last win came in impressive style off a mark of 79 at newmarket over todays trip, valid excuses for 2 poor efforts trip stretches him but did well to get within a neck of Franco between those and certainly suggests he could be open to yet more improvement over this trip! 0.3pt win Denton 4/1 hills 0.2pt win Scamperdale 16/1 hills

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 4.20 Wolverhampton Money for Wigrams Turn is interesting having failed to beat a rival home recently and has dropped to an attractive mark but you simply cant back him on current form but that also puts Nacho Libre out aswell as he has often been used for gambles but is badly on drift as they are backing stable mate Wigrams Turn! Buxton continues to come into contention in these races as he continues to run better than his form figures suggest to be honest. Was running on really well last time out to get close in a typical close lingfield finish, only 2lb higher than the win 3 starts ago and will need everything to fall apart just right for him but if it does he could make his presence felt having won off higher mark before. If Broughtons Day is turned out again today he ought to be hard to beat for all I hate backing horses running without penalty after winning in apprentice races but he did it in really good style yesterday under a brilliant ride from the useful Julie Burke. He is still lightly raced and open to plenty of more improvement yet he doesnt always look the easiest ride and not sure the drop back to 7f is necsearrily a good thing as he looked to need all the mile yesterday but since he looks so well treated he could be capable of overcoming that with Catlin on board. 0.4pt win Broughtons Day 11/4 coral 0.1pt win Buxton 10/1 coral 5.20 Wolverhampton Aphrodisia ran well last time out behind Eseej when staying on from a place that he never looked like winning, but a concern has to be this trip yet to win over it in 9 attempts nor shapping that great over it. Bavarica spends most of her time in weaker Amateur races these days and comes here on the back of a break and her record fresh is a little hit and miss although record on the AW pretty good 52 runs 6 wins, 22 placed efforts and is probably high enough in the weights at the moment and there will be another day for her. Straversjoy has turned into a useful CD handicapper and she could take the beating if bouncing back from a dissapointing effort under a penalty last time out when she was reported to have run flat, been given 25 days since that run and didnt do anything wrong on penultimate start to get her head in front for the 4th time over CD from 7 runs, now just 3lb higher and there could still be more scope for her in little races like this one. 0.5pt win Straversjoy 5/2 pp

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Very poor day and my bets is in a claimer for once today! La Estrella looks a class act in this field if it wasnt for the long break she has had but there has been some money around for her to suggest she could be ready for a run. She ran well in claimers before running ok off a mark of 88 in handicap to suggest mark doesnt flatter her and therefore is well in at the weights here on OR. Dane Oneil gets leg up which looks a good sign as yard often use there own boy but he he has a 4 from 5 record on her! 0.5pt win 11/4 BlueSquare la estrella

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Results catchup: Charlie Smirke -0.1 Lockantanks +0.8 Black Baccara +1.5 Triskdekaphobia -0.1 Efistorm -0.25 Sherjawy +2 Treacle Tart -0.4 Kavaloti -0.1 Buaiteoir -0.3 Kilburn -0.2 Denton -0.3 Scamperdale -0.2 Broughtons Day -0.4 Buxton -0.1 Straversjoy +1.75 La Estrella +1.88 Staked: 4.1 Returned: 7.93 Thread total: Staked: 24 Returned: 24.75 P/L +0.75

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Unfortunately missed the best racing having been called into work late so didnt get time to post so therefore just taken a look at the 6.50 at Kempton as there is an interesting runner in my opinion 6.50 Kempton Encircled hasnt looked like winning for a long time but has dropped in weights but really needs to show more. Camps Bay has been turned over several times in small fields recently in claimers and sellers and is likely to struggle back in handicaps. Time Square has no form to his name. Transformer won last time out but that was at Lingfield again and has run below par twice here and that is of obvious concern over that and at 11/8 this looks very risky. Wasara has struggled to see races out so that leaves the formerly useful Hindu Kushh who went the wrong way but came back with a better run for new yard last time out been off since then and has gone well fresh before and if fully wound up he could take advantage of such a race with many question marks on what looks a very tasty looking mark having won 2 listed races in his career, 1st polytrack run was last time out and was a positive one so more hope there! 0.5pt win Hindu Kush 5/1 skybet

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Not a bad looking card by southwell standards some decent field handicaps even if it is low level! 2.00 Southwell Tomintoul Star proved frustrating in the summer but did eventually get her head in front again but it is a similar story this year running respectably without looking a massive danger, yard also desperate for a winner so just cant be considered. Feet of Fury will be my saver in this race, she hadnt seen the fibresand till the beginning of the winter and ran a good race in november over CD and got head in front last time out over CD won by 6 lengths and handicapper taken a harsh view of that with a 11lb rise in handicap but 3rd and 5th have since gone and won, although she has stuggled off marks like this before but she is unexposed on the fibresand and could be capable of more. Another with similar profile is Clever Omneya who went extremely well over CD on a 200 day comeback on poenultimate start on first start on fibresand off a 10lb lower mark since struggled back at kempton which was disappointing considering she had won there before, hope rests on that she returns after another break and back on fibresand where she may still have some improvement left in her! 0.2 win Feet of Fury 2/1 vc 0.3pt win Clever Omneya 3/1 vc 3.00 Southwell Not a race worth much time as it looks a massive match between Eseej and Sail Home, the latter won an extremely weak CD maiden last time out and didnt it in brilliant style but really didnt beat anything worth talking about which has to be a concern now going handicapping. Therefore I am gonna stick with the character that is Eseej, was given a brilliant ride by Carson last time out at Kempton, causing some controversy having looked as though he burst through the gates just before starter let them go and then went blazing off in front and just managed to scrape home but that is how he has to be ridden. Loves it round here having won 3 times including off a 2lb higher mark and although would be 3lb better off waiting another week races are probably few and far between this year as handicapper has only put him up 3lb yet has to run under 6lb penalty today that said he is the most proven on fibresand and can make this race his from the start. 0.25pt win Eseej 2/1 vc 3.30 Southwell San Antonio appears to have recaptured some of his spark at the veteran age of 11 having romped home over CD on penultimate start and then just looking as though he was tiring last time out at kempton for all it was a brilliant effort and is 6lb well in here today so life clearly gonna get tougher but quick races in succession looks a big ask for a veteran. The 2 that interest me are Mr Emirati and Bentley who look closely matched on a form line with Steed who they have both finished behind, Bentley finished 1/2length behind with Steed 4lb higher than when Mr Emirati met him who finished behind him by a short head! Emirati is 3lb higher and Bentley runs off same mark so should be closely matched. Mr Emirati is clearly the unexposed runner having only had 5 starts to date and abviously looks the one to go further and that his races is working out slightly better than Bentley and goes well fresh having had another 53 days off the track. Bentley hardly ever runs a bad race round here and is likely to put another good show up although at the age of 7 has never won off a mark this high! 0.4pt win Mr Emirati 11/4 vc 0.1pt win Bentley 9/2 vc 4.30 Southwell Toby Tyler is not consistent and is no sure thing to follow up under a penalty today having won over CD and is probably worth taking on at a skinny price. Bel Cantor is an interesting runner back over his favourite CD always runs a solid race around here when in form and there was signs of revival recently including over CD on penultimate start when only finding the rapid improving Sir Louis a length too good, worth forgetting last run at wolves badly drawn and unable to dictate could easily see him bouncing back here today although not best drawn, 7lb claim taking off a decent lump of weight having now fell 19lb below last winning mark! 0.4pt win Bel Canto 15/4 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) From a decent card by Southwell standards yesterday to a piss poor card a Lingfield today! 1.50 Lingfield Real weak affair with many of these either not knowing how to win or win very rarely. That said Wyeth was making into a decent sort on the AW, winning 2 amateur events in good style over CD before going wrong over hurdles in Feb 09, pulled up again when next seen in Nov 10 over hurdles but was eye catchingly staying on over an inadequate trip over this course in a seller steps back up in trip and has to be bang there against these weaker rivals also worth noting that a yard does well with these sorts and good signed theyve perserved with him. The only other that comes into this in any sign of little form is olivinio having won a handicap hurdle in Sept and ran 10l 2nd behind the revitilized Brabazon over CD, didnt get best run last time out and that was also over 4f shorter and would look to bounce back over a longer trip. 0.4pt win Wyeth 5/6 vc 0.1pt win Olivinio 6/1 pp 2.50 Lingfield Again many of these struggling to beat rivals home at the moment but Black Bacarra finally took advantage of a massive slide in the weights last time out confirming promise he had been showing in handicaps prior to that. Some of that form is working out well and appeared to be going further away last time out and could still be said to be well handicapped under a 6lb penalty although he is set to race off just a 5lb higher mark when new mark comes in which seems extremely lenient useful in form apprentice Julie Burke takes the ride and well drawn in stall 4. The other that could be given a chance is Seeking Rio who is running out of the handicap by a 1lb but put an improved effort in behind Rightcar last time out first run for over a year and if coming on for the run has to be given a chance, having just plugged on and worth another try at 6f still lightly raced and could be open to more improvement than most in this race! 0.3pt win Black Bacarra 3/1 pp 0.2pt win Seeking Rio 16/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 3.45 Southwell Small field handicap and several can be given chances and I am gonna take 2 to war of the 8. Elhamri appeared to win with rather a lot of ease in a seller last week, although didnt beat anything worth noting it was good to see him do it in such good style on this surface. Has won off 13lb higher mark in the past and is still only 3lb higher than last winning mark in handicap and could just recieved a confidence boost last time out. Kummel Excess can be expected to strip fitter for the run last time out and is also easing down the weights, she has only won 1 handicap and that was her only try over CD and has now slipped to just 2lb above winning mark and a return to southwell could also help respark some form with yard going reasonably well and professional taking over from apprentices recently. 0.4pt win Elhamri 2/1 bet365 0.1pt win Kummel Excess 11/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 2.30 Lingfield First off Tuxedo has been running well of late but I am far convinced he needs a mile he appears much more at home over 7f and all wins have come at that trip. The Happy Hammer has a nasty habit of finding 1 or 2 too good far too often but continues to run well and does have a good record here but up another 1lb for 2nd last time out. Salient has proved hard to win with at times but is a capable sort on his day, didnt get the cleanest race last time out and shaped as if in need of the run, last win came off a 4lb higher mark so is well treated and best form has always been round here with all 3wins on the AW coming here. Copperwood is another that has some very solid form over Course, having won 3 times round here all at 7f, but has proved effective at a mile recently, was never able to land a blow from the back last time out and can be forgiven and close second to Blue Moon over CD in december reads very well with several behind him winning next time out. 0.3pt win Copperwood 9/2 bet365 0.2pt win Salient 11/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 4.40 Wolverhampton Probably not the most competitive race on the card but could possibly have an over priced runner looking at tissue SP's. Norman Orpen is potentially still improving but on OR has a bit too find. Puddington Bear has been well beaten on all starts including claimer last time out. Mr Hichens was below form when last seen and has a lot to find on OR ratings. Lowther has returned to something like his best recently back on the AW with head gear reapplied but has a tendency to find one or 2 too good and will need a truly run race to be seen at his best and does have to prove he has the stamina for this trip. Fighter Boy is an interesting runner for an inform yard. He won a back end AW maiden last spring and was sent off a 40/1 shot in a listed event at newmarket and finished a good 2nd but both times suggested he would be better over further and its yet to be seen whether his mark now flatters him after that run. Been gelded since and not seen for nearly 10 months fitness has to be taken on trust. For me Suits Me is a very interesting runner, he is the only confirmed front runner in the lineup and could very easily get a soft lead here and could easily get his head back in front, usually consistent on the AW and looks well treated at these weights having been placed in listed and winter derby races at his best and has shaped a little better recently. 0.5pt win Suits Me

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 1.50 Southwell Not hard to cross several of these out as 'near' impossible to win in this big field handicap several running out of the handicap and several well out of form. Muqalad stayed on quite well at the finish over CD, that was first run on fibresand and yard does do well round here but looked as though would need extra furlong to be seen at best on that evidence. Another that caught my eye last time out was Convince who is a twice course winner from 6 starts round here and was staying on extremely well again at the finish after a tardy start and wide draw, draw hasnt been kind again this time round but can be expected to come on for the run and has to be of interest in such a weak race. The other that will carry a small amount for me is Figaro Flyer who is a reguarlar round here, 16 runs 3 wins and several placed efforts, won round here on penultimate start round here over CD up 3lb for that, didnt cut much mustard round kempton last time out under young apprentice, Stainton takes back the ride and well drawn back round here in stall 2 and has won off much higher marks before. 0.2pt win Figaro Flyer 0.1pt win Convince 3.20 Southwell Bawaardi looks worth opposing having run on the fibresand twice and on neither occasion really created the impression he handles it although a second last time behind Advertisement could read well in this race. Transonic didnt beat all that much in a course claimer last time out although that was over a lot further than he is used to, he is 3 from 9 over todays CD including winning this race last year. Still above last winning mark by 2lb but confidence should be boosted and if blinkers bring about a respark should be somewhere in the finish. The most interesting runner for me is Sweet Child O'mine for Guest whos horses have been running well recently. Has a very good record fresh and comes into this race fresh and is well suited to Southwell conditions having won twice round here and is 2 from 2 over CD, and won a heavy ground conditions event in autumn. 6lb above last winning handicap mark but could still have more to offer and very useful apprentice takes off a handy 3lb. 0.2pt win Transonic 3/1 vc 0.3pt win Sweet Child O'Mine 6/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 3.30 Lingfield A very competitive handicap with many of these on good looking marks and a few in the right frame of mind. Tukitinyasok looks well handicapped on turf form, but is yet to convince he handles the AW surface and should come on for the run last time out needs to prove to me handles surface. Shared Moment has sparked back to life having had the visor fitted and does need a strongly run race to suit, he is never gone win by much with his style of racing but that means handicapper cant attack her too much, only 2lb higher for latest win. is 2 from 5 round here and best efforts have always come round here, has placed off this mark before and could easily follow up in current mood. The other that interests me is Cuthbert although not guaranteed to stay this trip he plugged on behind next time out winners advertisement and lockantanks and a few good efforts behind make that race form look very strong running off the same mark today and useful claimer takes a handy 3lb off and is currently 1lb below last wining mark. 0.2pt win Cuthbert 4/1 bet365 0.2pt win Shared Moment 5/1 vc 6.10 Kempton Black Baccarra has been in good form recently but that has been in less competitive races and has to run 2lb out the handicap here which could be a big ask. Sherjawy often runs his race and rather had a race fall apart on penultimate start that gave him a golden opportunity to get back on the scoreboard, 5lb up for that but ran a good race in defeat last time out and if repeating that again today off same mark should have a good chance with a good record around here although yet to win off a mark as high as this. Island legend is one of several front running times although the others including Sherjawy, Whisky Junction and Black Bacarra often tend to push the pace, so its either gonna fall apart in front or will get the run of the race and the way he stayed on stoutly last time out was encouraging and has a great draw here to front run again and only 2lb higher and relatively lightly raced compared to most in this race and this race probably a tad weaker than last time out. 0.1pt win Sherjawy 0.2pt win Island Legend