chris34 Posted February 14, 2010 Share Posted February 14, 2010 I know this early but I have made a new years resolution to attempt to crack ante-post betting and see if I can make a profit from it and with the Lincoln Handicap entries released this week I have started my antepost attempt! Will use this thread to track all results from daily markets aswell as antepost bets (keeping the 2 stats seperate) Obviously this thread will lay dormant for a few more weeks yet but I have taken out 2 antepost bets; Black Dahlia- Excelling herself at the moment for the brilliant Glover yard, been unlucky twice in listed company not to get the breaks but ran on very strongly today (14th feb) in ladybird stakes to suggest she is capable of a lot more. 0.25pt e/w 40/1 totesport Flipando- A horse I followed throughout last season, ran well in last years renewal finishing 3rd having won a trial on the aw, proved he was back to best on friday evening (12th feb) at wolverhampton in a sprnt handicap. Often comes to hand this time of year more exposed than most in the lineup but should stand his ground well. 0.25pt e/w 40/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted March 22, 2010 Author Share Posted March 22, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 First flat meeting over and a decent result to kick us off: Sunday: 2.15 Curragh- Julius Geezer 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 3.20 Curragh- Zaralanta 0.25pt e/w(unplaced), Le Cadre Noir 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 3.55 Curragh- Pollen 0.25pt e/w(WIN 16/1ADV +4.8), Danehills Pearl 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 4.30 Curragh- Kargali 0.25pt win(unplaced), Shes Our Mark 0.25pt win(unplaced), Award Ceremony 0.25pt win(unplaced), Barack 0.25pt win(4th) Staked: 3.5 Returned: 5.3 Thread Total: Staked: 3.5 Returned: 5.3 p/l: +1.8 ROI: 51.43% Might look at trading out on Lincoln bets later in the week got questions over both right now! Flipando looks a little to high in the weights now after his sprint win and Black Dahlia may also be flattered by her current mark after some strong runs in listed events now going back on turf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted March 28, 2010 Author Share Posted March 28, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Well the season really did kick off this weekend and couldnt have asked for a much better start and great to have a change from the sand! Saturday: 2.00 Doncaster- Ben Chorley 0.5pt e/w(4th 11/1ADV +0.88), Benanndoner 0.25 e/w(unplaced) 3.10 Doncaster- Mias Boy 0.5pt e/w(unplaced), Prime Exhibit 0.1pt e/w(2nd 12/1 +0.2), Smokey Oakey 0.1pt e/w(4th 22/1ADV +0.45), Reve De Nuit 0.1pt e/w(unplaced) 4.50 Doncaster- Hollow Green 0.25pt e/w(2nd 12/1ADV +0.35) Staked: 3.6 Returned: 3.78 Sunday: 2.00 Doncaster- Ella Woodcock 0.25pt e/w(unplaced), Crystal Feather 0.25pt e/w(unplaced), Blue Spinnaker 0.25pt e/w(WIN 5/1ADV +1.56) 3.00 Doncaster- Deadly Enclounter 0.5pt e/w(WIN 6/1ADV +3.75) 3.35 Doncaster- Spruce 0.5pt e/w(2nd 16/1 +1.5) 4.10 Doncaster- Johnny Mudball 0.5pt win(unplaced) 3.30 Leopardstown- Philario 0.5pt e/w(2nd 12/1ADV +0.7) Staked: 5 Returned: 11.01 This week total: Staked: 8.6 Returned: 14.79 p/l: +6.19 Thread totals: Staked: 12.1 Returned: 20.09 p/l: +7.99 ROI: 66.03% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
south_eastern_ram Posted March 28, 2010 Share Posted March 28, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Good work today chris :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted March 28, 2010 Share Posted March 28, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Seconded :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted March 28, 2010 Author Share Posted March 28, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Cheers guys nice to kick off the season well lets just hope it continues!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuSimmy Posted March 28, 2010 Share Posted March 28, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Very nice start chris :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted April 5, 2010 Author Share Posted April 5, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Cheers Stu :) ok second week over: Thursday 2.40 Folkestone- Kyllachy Storm 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 3.40 Folkestone- Harlech Castle 0.75pt win (non runner), Signore Momento 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 4.10 Folkestone- Goodwood Starlight 0.5pt e/w (2nd 12/1 +1) Staked: 2 Returned: 2 Sunday: 2.50 Musselburgh- Sirenuse 0.5pt e/w(unplaced), Lucky Numbers 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 3.50 Musselburgh- Gordonsville 0.5pt e/w(unplaced), Bogside Theatre 0.25pt e/w(WIN 4/1 +0) 4.20 Musselburgh- Shes In The Money 1pt win(WIN 2/1ADV +2) Staked: 4 Returned: 3.5 This week total: Staked: 6 Returned: 5.5 p/l: -0.5 Thread totals: Staked: 18.1 Returned: 25.59 p/l: +7.49 ROI: 41.38% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted April 11, 2010 Author Share Posted April 11, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Week 3: Monday: 2.00 Redcar- Dispol Kyle 0.25pt e/w(2nd 10/1 +0.25) 2.35 Redcar- Sendali 0.25pt e/w(WIN 8/1ADV +2.5) 3.45 Redcar- Flores Sea 0.25pt e/w(3rd 10/1ADV +0.38) 4.55 Redcar- Mr Rainbow 0.5pt win(unplaced), Pendragon 0.5pt win(unplaced) 2.15 Yarmouth- Zerzura 0.5pt e/w(unplaced), Cry A Lot Boy 0.25pt e/w (non runner) 3.25 Yarmouth- Aviso 0.25pt e/w(WIN 6/1 +1.8) 5.10 Yarmouth- Opera Prince 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 2.20 Warwick- Northern Bolt 0.25pt e/w (non runner) 5.15 Warwick- Blue Spinnaker 1pt win (non runner) Staked: 4.5 Returned: 6.93 Tuesday: 4.05 Ffos Las- Yes Mr President 1pt win(WIN 3/1 +3) Staked 1 returned: 4 Wednesday: 2.40 Catterick- Royal Trooper 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) 3.10 Catterick- Crackentorp 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) 3.40 Catterick- Spavento 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 1.50 Nottingham- Crystal Feather 0.25pt e/w(2nd 7/1ADV +0.19) 3.50 Nottingham- Opinion Poll 1pt win(WIN 7/4ADV +1.75) 4.20 Nottingham- Blue Spinnaker 1pt win(2nd) Staked: 5 Returned: 3.44 Thursday 5.10 Leicester- Jordaura 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) Staked: 0.5 Returned: 0 Friday: 3.35 Musselburgh- Highland Warrior 0.5pt win(WIN 7/2 +1.75) 4.35 Musselburgh- Goliaths Boy 0.5pt win(WIN 5/2 +1.25) Staked: 1 Returned: 4 This week totals: Staked: 12 Returned: 18.37 p/l: + 6.37 Thread total: Staked: 30.1 Returned: 43.96 p/l: +13.86 ROI: 46.05% Thread going well so far obvious concerns my AW thread started the same and now struggling I will be just happy to keep it ticking along nicely each week, my new found discipline is certainly helping in areas but still tend to be a little weak at times and must learn but hey only my second year taking this serious and still on a massive learning curve! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted April 18, 2010 Author Share Posted April 18, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Week 4: Monday: 3.00 Folkestone- Miss Hollybell 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 5.00 Folkestone- Karky Schultz 0.5pt e/w(WIN 4/1ADV +2.5) 3.20 Windsor- Tudor Key 0.25pt win(WIN 8/1ADV +2), Smart Endeavour 0.25pt win(unplaced), Cheam Forever 0.25pt win(unplaced) 3.50 Windsor- Luscivious 1pt win (non runner) Staked: 2.25 Returned: 5.75 Tuesday: 4.30 Yarmouth- Hollow Green 0.5pt win(unplaced), Managua 0.25pt e/w(2nd 10/1 +0.25) 2.20 Pontefract- Hits Only Jude 0.25pt e/w(3rd 4/1ADV +0) 3.20 Pontefract- Kiwi Bay 1pt win(unplaced) 3.50 Pontefract- Sinbad The Sailor 0.5pt win(unplaced) 4.20 Pontefract- Shadows Lengthening 0.25pt e/w(3rd 25/1 +1) Staked 3.5 Returned: 2.75 Wednesday: 3.10 Beverley- Ishetoo 0.25pt e/w(unplaced), Hamish Mcgonagall 0.25pt e/w(3rd 28/1 +1.5), Oldjoesaid 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 3.45 Beverley- Zapplamation 0.5pt win(WIN 3/1 +1.5) Staked 2 Returned 4 Thursday 3.00 Newmarket- Mullionmileanhour 0.5pt e/w(2nd 5/1 +0) 2.35 Ripon- Mrs Penny 0.25pt e/w(unplaced), Haajes 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) Staked 2 Returned 1 Friday 2.40 Newbury- Tamagin 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) 3.05 Thirsk- Regeneration 0.5pt e/w(3rd 7/2ADV -0.06) 4.15 Thirsk- Mandarin Spirit 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 4.45 Thirsk- Highland Warrior 1pt win(unplaced) Staked: 3.5 Returned: 0.94 Saturday 2.00 Newbury- Buxted 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) 2.35 Newbury- Irish Heartbeat 0.5pt win(unplaced), Mull of Killough 0.5pt e/w(unplaced), Big Bay 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 5.20 Newbury- Franco Is My Name 0.25pt e/w (non runner), Potentiale 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) 1.55 Thirsk- Northside Prince 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) 2.25 Thirsk- Laureldeans Best 0.5pt win(unplaced) 3.00 Thirsk- Shes In The Money 1pt win(unplaced) 3.35 Thirsk- Ahmedy 0.5pt e/w(3rd 9/1ADV +0.63) 4.40 Doncaster- Thunderball 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 6.50 Doncaster- Thunderstruck 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) Staked: 8.5 Returned: 1.63 This weeks totals: Staked: 21.75 Returned: 16.07 p/l: -5.68 Disappointing end to the week which ended in a nasty loss, Saturday racing still eludes me and struggle at times. Thread totals: Thread total: Staked: 51.85 Returned: 60.03 p/l: +8.18 ROI: 15.77% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted April 26, 2010 Author Share Posted April 26, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Week 5 Monday: 3.10 Pontefract- Hotham 0.5pt win(unplaced), Thebes 0.25pt win(unplaced), Go Go Green 0.25pt win(unplaced) 3.40 Pontefract- Pocket Two 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 4.40 Pontefract- Wisemans Diamond 0.5pt e/w(unplaced), Cheers for Thea 0.25pt win(unplaced), Brushing 0.25pt win(2nd) 6.10 Windsor- Everybody Knows 0.5pt e/w(WIN 9/1 +5.4) Staked 4 returned 6.4 Tuesday 5.00 Kempton- Ermyn Lodge 0.5pt win(WIN 2/1ADV +1) 5.35 Kempton- Splendorinthegrass 0.5pt e/w(WIN 8/1 +4.8) 3.10 Wolverhampton- Seasider 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 3.30 Folkestone- Love You Louis 0.5pt win (non runner) 6.10 Brighton- My Kingdom 0.5pt win(unplaced) Staked 2.5 Returned: 7.3 Wednesday: 4.15 Catterick- Karky Schultz 0.5pt win (non runner) 2.20 Epsom- Hoh Hoh Hoh 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) 2.55 Epsom- Coin of the Realm 0.5pt win(WIN 6/1 +3), Trip The Light 0.5pt win(unplaced) 8.50 Kempton- Crown Choice 1pt win(WIN 7/4ADV +1.75) Staked 3 Returned 6.25 Thursday 2.30 Beverley- Sworn Tigress 1pt win(unplaced), Southern Regent 0.25pt e/w(2nd 16/1 +0.55) 5.15 Beverley- Tomintoul Star 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 6.25 Southwell- Army of Stars 0.5pt win(unplaced) Staked 2.5 Returned: 1.05 Friday 3.05 Wolverhampton- Master Lightfoot 0.5pt win(unplaced), Wotashirtful 0.5pt win(unplaced) 4.05 Wolverhampton- Aegean King 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) 4.35 Wolverhampton- Copperwood 0.5pt e/w(2nd 5/1 +0) Staked: 3 returned 1 Saturday: 2.50 Ripon- Diamond Blade 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) 3.25 Ripon- Bogside Theatre 1pt win(unplaced) 1.55 Leicester- Lucky Redback 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) 4.05 Leicester- Carr Hall 0.25pt e/w(3rd 6/1ADV +0.55) 6.50 Wolverhampton- Sir Edwin Landseer 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) 6.35 Haydock- Danderek 0.5pt win(unplaced) Staked: 5 Returned: 0.55 Sunday 3.15 Bath- Spinning Ridge 0.5pt win(unplaced) 3.50 Bath- Cool Strike 1pt win(unplaced) 5.25 Bath- Kyllachy Storm 1pt win(unplaced) Staked 2.5 Returned: 0 Staked: 22.5 Returned: 22.55 p/l: +0.05 Very good start to the week but usual bad saturday with a few bad days aswell hope its just a glitch! Thread totals: Staked: 74.35 Returned: 82.58 p/l: +8.23 ROI: 11.06% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted May 2, 2010 Author Share Posted May 2, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Week 6; Monday: 3.30 Wolverhampton- Lord Of The Dance 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) 2.10 Newcastle- Socceroo 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 4.10 Newcastle- Masta Plasta 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) 6.10 Windsor- Rockfella 0.25pt e/w(unplaced), Turjuman 0.5pt win(unplaced) 6.40 Windsor- Anne of Kieve 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) Staked: 4.5pts Returned: 0pts Profit Loss: -4.5pts Tuesday: 3.00 Lingfield- Wheres Susie 0.5pt e/w(2nd 6/1 +0.25) 7.05 Nottingham- Perpetually 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) Staked: 2pts Returned: 1.25pts Profit Loss: -0.75pt Wednesday: 3.30 Pontefract- Xpres Maite 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 4.05 Pontefract- Umverti 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 5.15 Pontefract- Zapplamation 1pt win(2nd) 5.05 Ascot- Erinjay 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) 8.10 Kempton- Blue Eyed Eloise 0.5pt e/w (non runner) 9.10 Kempton- Jake The Snake 0.5pt win(unplaced) Staked: 3.5pts Returned: 0pts Profit Loss: -3.5pts Thursday: 3.10 Folkestone- Cornus 1pt win(2nd) 5.10 Folkestone- Charlie Smirke 1pt win(unplaced) 4.00 Redcar- Tangerine Trees 0.5pt e/w(WIN 7/1ADV +4.2) 6.00 Brighton- Ocean Countess 0.25pt e/w(WIN 15/2 +2.25) 7.00 Brighton- Granny Mcphee 0.25pt win(WIN 3/1ADV +0.75) Staked: 3.75pts Returned: 8.95pts Profit Loss: +5.2pts Friday: 3.15 Lingfield- Autumn Blades 0.5pt e/w(unplaced), Thebes 0.25pt win(WIN 5/1 +1.25) 4.55 Lingfield- Mafeking 0.25pt e/w(unplaced), Island Sunset 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 3.25 Musselburgh- Charlie Cool 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 5.05 Musselburgh- Deadly Encounter 0.5pt win(unplaced) 2.30 Doncaster- Toby Tyler 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 3.35 Doncaster- Abayaan 0.5pt win(unplaced) Staked: 4.5pts Returned: 1.5pts Profit Loss: -3pts Saturday: 3.30 Thirsk- Glenriding 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 4.05 Thirsk- Osteopathic Rememdy 0.5pt e/w(WIN 8/1 +5) 2.15 Goodwood- Curaco 0.25pt e/w(2nd 13/2ADV +0.07) 5.35 Doncaster- Thunderstruck 0.25pt e/w(2nd 7/1ADV +0.1) 8.20 Doncaster- Veloso 1pt win (non runner) Staked: 2.5pts Returned: 7.17pts Profit Loss: +4.67pts Sunday: Sunday 2nd May Bets: 2.30 Hamilton- Fuijin Dancer 0.5pt win(WIN 7/4ADV +0.88) 4.15 Hamilton- Alcalde 0.5pt win(unplaced) 4.40 Salisbury- Dayia 1pt e/w(unplaced) 2.05 Newmarket- Tinaar 0.5pt win (WIN 8/1 +4) , Record Breaker 0.25pt e/w(unplaced), Reve De Nuit 0.25pt e/w(unplaced), Royal Diamond 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) Staked: 5pts Returned: 5.88pts Profit Loss: +0.88pts This weeks total: Staked: 25.75 Returned: 24.75 p/l: -1 A couple of good days including a rare good saturday helped secure a minimal loss after an appauling start to the week lets hope better results continue although it is bank holiday racing tomorrow!! Thread totals: Staked: 100.1 Returned: 107.33 p/l: +7.23 ROI: 7.22% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted May 5, 2010 Author Share Posted May 5, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 I am away for a few days so will only have access on my phone so will put up my bets for tomorrow and Friday in this thread for everyone to see 4.10 Goodwood It might be worth siding with My Kingdom who shaped well for a long way on seasonal reappearance before fading in last furlong but still wasnt beaten far, that was on fast ground and should appreciate some cut back in the ground and is now dropped 2lb which puts him back on his last winning mark. 0.5pt win my kingdom 1.45 Chester Hayley turner holds a strong claim on this handicap with Leceile, she goes well fresh and was progressing extremely well last year all starting with an impressive maiden win beating the useful Stanstill by 5 lengths then followed up in handicap impressively off a mark of 78 and was then 2nd on last start of mark of 87 when shaping as if the race had possibly come to soon and didnt shape as if handicapped out of it and should find this company a little easier even off a 3lb higher mark. 0.5pt e/w leceile 13/2 sj 7.00 Ffos Las Potentiale is another that shaped a lot better than perhaps the results show on seasonal reappearance when staying on eye catchingly in the dying moments and perhaps under a little more persuasive ride and if coming on for the run he could run a solid race off a 1lb lower mark today. Now only 3lb above last winning mark 3 starts ago at epsom. 0.5pt win potentiale Friday: 7.50 Hamilton The galloping shoe is an interesting runner back at this trip, since winning a maiden on first start on soft ground he has been disappointing but it might be worth seeing how he goes today as I feel Zapplamation could well still have plenty of improvement left in him losing little in defeat by the unexposed mr freddy last time out and certainly suggests the 7lb rise for latest win isnt over harsh. 1pt win zapplamation 7.30 Ripon Granston isnt one to put all your faith in at any point but he shaped well on seasonal reappearance when fearing best of those behind the run away winner in Dangerous Midge, he won this race off a 2lb lower mark last year and has always come on for a run in recent years. 0.5pt win granston 3.45 Lingfield Love you louis wouldnt want the turf drying out too much more and if he does stand his ground he could be dangerous if returning in same form when last seen being hampered last time out 25 days ago, he looked to be the all over winner at one point and gets to run off same mark today. 0.5pt win love you louis 5.25 Lingfield Back on the AW with this handicap and Copperwood has turned a corner just recently on the AW winning 4 of his last 6 starts and was second to the potentially well treated Global Village last time out and although up 3lb for that effort his upward curve doesnt look to have finished yet and could still be capable of more now he has lost his attitude. 1pt win copperwood 4.30 Chester Last Sovereign has been running well on the AW of late and is just as capable on turf as the sand and Detori rides again, he won a handicap off a mark of 78 when able to dictate a steady pace over 7f, tried to do the same over a mile last time out and although plugged on at the death he is probably better over 7f and he has a perfect low draw to try and dictate this race running off same mark again today and did manage a 2nd off this mark last year and could still be well treated if in same form. 0.5pt win last sovereign 4.10 Nottingham West Emirates has made a late start in life but is having plenty of impact finishing runner up on 3 maiden starts over 7f twice and 9f and then made handicap debut over this trip finishing second again all on the all weather and certainly doesnt shape as ungenuine and on the back of the effort in handicap company last time suggests he can win off this sort of mark if taking to the turf aswell as he has the aw. 0.25pt e/w west emirates Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted May 9, 2010 Author Share Posted May 9, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Gonna go back to old style simply because i want to keep records etc. and this is a fantastic way to do so and I can easily add comments to any runs I feel are worth picking out! So for tomorrows bets 10th May: 3.40 Brighton I feel the likely favourite Chalice welcome might be worth taking on, he is a lot better on the AW than turf and all his recent wins have come on aw and now 23lb higher than last win on turf last Sept. Perpetually is undoubtly a much classier horse than most of this field and although failed to come on for runs recently he might be one more risk off a slipping mark, he was unbeaten on fast ground until last time out 2 weeks ago, but hopefully the step up in trip will bring out that little extra that he perhaps needs. Johnstons horse often improve for the step up in trip and his horses continue in good enough form as they often do. 1pt win Perpetually 4.10 Brighton Blue Tango has run out 2 good efforts in CD handicaps recently, only going down by the narrowest of margins by the potentialy well handicap but temperemental mare Granny Mcphee on latest, gets to run off same mark today and actually reopposes the 3rd that day Goose Green on same terms and although he may have more improvement than Blue Tango he is clearly in good heart and potentially still well handicapped on some of his 2yr old form. Whats up doc may give the market 2 leaders the most to think about, another front runner and is a gutsy one that often runs in sellers and claimers but in good heart in those and now returns handicapping off a good looking mark having won a handicap off a mark of 75 in Ireland running off 67 today. 0.75pt win blue tango 0.25pt win Whats up doc 4.40 Brighton Ocean Counttess might be worth risking, she is a course specialist 4 from 5 starts and scored over this course 11 days ago and may still have more to offer although this is a step up in class and is effectively 8lb higher handicap today (4lb rise in weights and 4lb out of the handicap) but did win quite convincingly and the slightly slower ground will also help in her contest. 0.25pt e/w ocean counttess 5.10 Brighton I keep tipping My Kingdom up recently simply because I think he is more than capable of winning off his current mark, he was perhaps slightly disappointing when hitting front at goodwood last week when hitting front and fading into second fairly tamely but 1st and my kingdom were well clear of the rest and it was a decent enough field to suggest he is in good enough form to take his opportunity at a course where his only 2 wins have come. 0.5pt win my kingdom 3/1 bet365 3.50 Redcar This has all the marks of an extremely weak handicap and I have Orangeleg down as a potentially unexposed well handicapped horse having run away in eye catching fashion with a handicap at lingfield over this trip but was bitterly disappointing when last seen at Wolverhampton in February and fitness and well being has to be taken on trust but a return to turf may be just what he needs. 0.5pt win orangeleg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted May 9, 2010 Author Share Posted May 9, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Week 7 Results 1 Brilliant day the rest were a disaster struggling to string any sort of form together but just keeping bopping along only a small loss this week but would prefer some consistency! Monday: 3.20 Beverley- Machlinnen 0.5pt win(3rd), King Fingal 0.5pt win(WIN 4/1 +2) 2.55 Windsor- At Wits End 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) 2.40 Warwick- Ymir 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 4.00 Kempton- Moynahan 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) 4.30 Kempton- Mr Plod 1pt win(unplaced) Staked: 4.5pts Returned: 2.5pts Profit Loss: -2pts Tuesday 4th May Bets: 7.00 Catterick- Cornus 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) 8.30 Catterick- Lost in Paris 0.5pt win(WIN 9/4ADV +1.13) Staked: 1.5pts Returned: 1.63pts Profit Loss: +0.13pts Wednesday 5th May Bets: 2.45 Chester- Bernie The Bolt 0.25pt e/w(unplaced), Mamlook 0.25pt e/w(WIN 9/1ADV +2.81), Majestic Concorde 0.25pt e/w(4th 14/1 +0.63) 3.15 Chester- Green Manalishi 0.25pt win(unplaced), Hamish Mcgonagall 0.25pt win(unplaced) 2.25 Southwell- Transonic 0.5pt e/w(WIN 12/1ADV +8.5) 2.55 Southwell- La Capriosa 0.5pt win(WIN 3/1ADV +1.5) 4.10 Southwell- Lucky Punt 1pt win(3rd) Staked: 5pts Returned: 15.94pts Profit Loss: +10.49pts Thursday 6th May Bets: 4.10 Goodwood- My Kingdom 0.5pt win(2nd) 1.45 Chester- Leceile 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) 7.00 Ffos Las- Potentiale 0.5pt win(unplaced) Staked: 2pts Returned: 0pts Profit Loss: -2pts Friday 7th May Bets: 7.50 Hamilton- Zapplamation 1pt win(3rd) 7.30 Ripon- Granston 0.5pt win(unplaced) 3.45 Lingfield- Love You Louis 0.5pt win(unplaced) 5.25 Lingfield- Copperwood 1pt win(unplaced) 4.30 Chester- Last Sovereign 0.5pt win(unplaced) 4.10 Nottingham- West Emirates 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) Staked: 4pts Returned: 0pts Profit Loss: -4pts Saturday 8th May Bets: 3.25 Ascot- Mabait 0.5pt win(2nd), Flipando 0.25pt e/w(unplaced), Splendorinthegrass 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 4.35 Ascot- Theola 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 5.10 Ascot- We Have Dreamed 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) 2.25 Nottingham- Sworn Tigress 0.5pt win(unplaced) 7.05 Thirsk- Hunters Belt 0.25pt e/w (non runner) 7.50 Warwick- Lucky Redback 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) Staked: 4.5pts Returned: 0pts Profit Loss: -4.5pts This weeks total: Staked: 21.5 Returned: 20.07 p/l: -1.43 Thread totals: Total Staked: 121.6 Total Returned: 127.4 (P/L +5.8) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted May 11, 2010 Author Share Posted May 11, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Unfortunately no returns at all yesterday but here is what I picked out of the races; Perpetually ran extremely well again and was well backed to suggest he is expected to be better than shown, he was staying on at the death and certainly wants a test and front 3 pulled well clear of the remainer. Blue Tango and Whats up doc were massive disappointments beaten long way out, Blue tango has had a lot of racing recently perhaps catching up Ocean counttess was a non runner My kingdom again ran a solid race to suggest he is in form and his turn is just round the corner but how long I can sustain support for him I am not sure, peters island was a gritty winner but need things to fall right and isnt a likely runner to follow up, Whiskey Junction ran a much better race than he has recently and would be of interest in his next race! My list of horses that have potential to pick something up soon (horses added and taken off daily dependant on runs): Perpetually- Needs stamina test Whiskey Junction- Showed much better form lto My Kingdom- In form and on winnable mark but when? Todays bets: 3.00 Beverley Nice big field handicap over the 5f sprint shame it has all the shape of a weak affair on paper with several of these struggling in the main and need to step up so I am gonna take 2 slightly risky bets but I think they could go well at decent prices. Lord of the reins ran a respectable race in a better race last time out from a poor draw and is better drawn today dropped effectively 6lb in handicap and has useful Cannon taking off a further 5lb which makes him looks extremely well handicapped now returning to last winning mark on penultimate start on aw, he is probably better known for his aw antics these but has won on the turf off marks in 80's now rated just 75 fast ground and course to suit has often run well here the other I am taking against the field is Pacific Pride who is actually running from 3lb out of the handicap and must step back forward after some poor shows after winning this race last year off a mark of 70, rated just 58 today, has gone well fresh in the past and another useful claimer helps to off set the harsh reality of running out of the weights. 0.5pt e/w lord of the reins 8/1 pp 0.25pt e/w pacific pride 25/1 sj 4.00 Beverley A couple of last time out winners line up in this but Fuijin Dancer is up in grade and up 10lb in total today under a penalty which looks tough even though he was impressive he often finds trouble in running. Danehillsundance was impressive winner last week over CD and runs under just a penalty today and looks potentially well handicapped having won off 89 in his younger days running off 72 today and now back on song could be hard to peg back. 1pt win danehillsundance 11/4 hills 2.20 Yarmouth Thoughtsofstardom had a fantastic season on the AW often running some bold races in stronger races than this and at peak won off 66 on AW this winter and after some creditable efforts in handicaps back on turf finds himself rated 55lb, has often lacked a finshing effort recently under a young apprentice that hasnt had any winners yet who is now replaced by Ryan Moore which looks a strong booking. 0.25pt e/w thoughtsofstardom 13/2 sj 4.50 Yarmouth Taking a massive risk in Best In Class is nothing but inconsistent but has slipped to a very low mark now dropped 6lb below last winning mark, is reasonably lightly race and may in time work out better on the aw than turf he cant be ignored in a weak affair step up in trip looking a positive move on the back of aw runs and also tongue tied for first time a visor got rid of. 0.25pt e/w best in class 12/1 sj 5.20 Yarmouth Sir Prescott has a fantastic record with improving modst handicappers out of recognition especially when he peserveres with them and steps them up in trip. Ultimate Quest hasnt been seen for 2 years but when last seen he ran out a much improved 2nd in handicap company over CD up 1lb for that effort but its interesting that Prescott has conitnued with a 53 rated horse, yard got going this weekend with a 8/1 winner in listed race which might suggest his yard has wintered well. 0.5pt win ultimate quest 7/2 hills 3.10 Warwick Lost in paris was mightly impressive at catterick last week proving might expectations right that he is potentially well handicapped and unexposed at 5f which now looks his optimum trip he is all speed and nothing else and gets in lightly into this race with just a penalty sure to go up 10lb+ after last weeks victory. 1pt win lost in paris 4/6 bet365 7.20 Southwell A chance is taken on Speed Dating for the prescott yard, he is reasonably lightly raced and won quite comfortably and better than the bare winnign margin that day off a mark of 59 but was soon turned over off revised mark 8lb higher but this step up in trip should suit much more and his best form has come with some cut in the ground to suggest a trip on the fibresand wouldnt go amiss and prescott usually does quite well round here with a 20% strike rate last 5 seasons. 0.5pt e/w speed dating 9/2 bet365 7.50 Southwell Salerosa is a real course specialist winning 5 from 6 and only second on only other start when second to the other course specialist miss glitters up a moderate 4lb for latest win in december looks lenient and has gone well fresh here before and open to yet more improvement main concern has to be form of the yard but still the one to beat on form. 1pt win salerosa 3/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted May 11, 2010 Author Share Posted May 11, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Absolutely desperate day; Salerosa ran well below expectations and didnt even shape as if a run would sort her out, she pulled hard throughout Lost in paris was unable to dominate aswell as he did at catterick maybe run came too soon hard to say but isnt one to trust on back of todays run Best in class did her usual thing of throwing in towel when push came to shove and if she was a colt you would say she needs the snip but shes a mare and tempermental one at that! Thoughtsofstardom again lacked any change of pace and happened in final furlong or so perhaps pushed him out of places but he wasnt gonna win Danehillsundance was bitterly disappointing never at the race like most of the rest of the field winner made all Lord of reins and pacific pride were never at the races and probably left alone till show more. The 2 that offered some hope were the 2 Prescott runners Speed Dating travelled sweetly throughout race at back of field and came with a smart looking challenge when it looked as if fitness failed him towards the line and ends up on my list for now after that run, Ultimate quest ran well enough again staying on nicely and is sure to pick a race up but not quite sure the run warrants a name on the list imo Perpetually- Needs stamina test Whiskey Junction- Showed much better form lto My Kingdom- In form and on winnable mark but when? Speed Dating- Travelled sweetly in need of run Tomorrows bets: 1.40 York Very decent looking handicap to kick the dante meeting off with and the favourite looks hard to oppose despite burdened with a 12lb rise in handicap for a win at newbury when beating the useful elliptical by nearly 4 lengths who followed up with a good 2nd off a 1lb higher mark in big handicap at HQ last week behind Tartan Gigha and on that form has Tartan Gunna covered in my opinion who was about 4 lengths behinf eliptical that day so needs to find 4 lengths out of 12lb could be tough in this race as Forte De Mairi is likely to strip fitter today and come on for the run aswell especially still being lightly raced. None of swinbanks runners can be dismissed at the moment they are in terrific form sitting on 20% strike rate from 20 runners with lsp of +10.33 he runs Saga De Tercey here who was a horse I followed quite keenly last year who was bitterly disappointing when last seen trying his furthest trip yet in the Cesarewitch trial he drops back in trip massively and it has to be interesting as to why he is doing this and at 20/1 he looks worth taking a risk on he won a maiden over 2f further and may still have more to offer being lightly raced. 1pt win Forte De Marmi 9/4 0.25pt e/w saga de tercey 20/1 pp 3.45 York Another brilliant big field handicap which appears to be where I am doing well this season but this does look potentialy a tough one with many of these could have a few ticks besides them. A favourite hasnt won this race since 2000 but nothing over 10/1 has won it either which is interesting considering the competitivness of the race, it also often pays to be near the fore at york so I will be taking the lightly but progressive 8yr old Veloso and the ever consistent Mannlichen. Veloso has been in superb form sincing come back off a 482 day break has won 3 of his 4 starts all on fibresand but his only loss was a very good second on turf, he gets into this race only 2lb higher due to his turf mark being below that of his aw mark currently, he certainly wouldnt want ground drying out much more but is likely to make a bol bid from the front end of the race. Mannlichen is another that races at the fore and is nothing but consistent and still open to improvement having won off a 6lb lower mark last year and has since then remained in form running well when shaping as if a run under his belt wouldnt go amiss last time out should come on for the run and the step up back in trip looks a positive move as he just shapes as an out and out stayer. 0.25pt e/w mannlichen 0.25pt e/w veloso 7.00 Bath War of the roses is a thoroughly exposed sort nowadays but is actually lightly raced on turf and although has shown nothing in 4 starts on turf he is potentially very well handicapped having won off a mark of 81 last year now rated just 63 on turf (75 on aw) and although slipped down the weights rightly so with several disappointing efforts he has showed a little more lately to suggest he could pick up a race like this where it doesnt get much weaker with many of these having to run out of the handicap! 0.5pt e/w war of the roses Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted May 12, 2010 Author Share Posted May 12, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Todays racing: Mannlichen was very one pace and just kept on plugging and is gonna need a race to fall into his hands probably at the moment, Veloso was a non runner probably because of fast ground. Forte De Marmi simply didnt see the trip out very well in the higher grade and under more weight, Saga de tercey shaped well for a long way before lacking for fitness it seemed and would both be of interest next time out. I highlight Tartan Gunna chance and he actually just pipped forte de marmi to turn the tables on that form line and showed he is still in good form but they had flown nest before he get going. War of the roses tonight showed his best turf form yet but dont get over excited the race was weak but he did fare best of those held up (winner made all) and front rank was long gone before a challenge was really mounted nonetheless there was some promise. Tomorrows bets: 1.40 York Wow a very very competitive sprint handicap. As has been stated before it often pays to race handy at york and is no difference over the sprint trip and this is certainly gonna be run at some clip with plenty of front runners in the lineup but I am gonna take the brave Jaconet who has improved out of recognition on the AW past couple years winning 2 listed events over 6f and ran another brave race over 6f in listed company last time out when 3rd and although probably better at 6f she doesnt lack the pace for the 5f and has previously won over 5f including a CD win here off a 32lb lower mark!!! The other I am gonna take is Judge n Jury who shaped well on season reappearance at newbury when clearly needing the run in final furlong and should strip fitter for the run and runs off same mark today and last win only comes off a 1lb lower mark. 0.25pt e/w jaconet 10/1 10/1 0.25pt e/w judge n jury 14/1 lads 7.25 Newmarket Rumble of thunder was a model of consistency last year and may still be open to more improvement now as a 4yr old, he ran a good enough 2nd off this mark over CD on last start, will appreciate the fast ground and could get a soft lead in this race and goes well fresh. 0.5pt e/w rumble of thunder Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted May 13, 2010 Author Share Posted May 13, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Havnt watched todays races yet but Jaconet nearly halved in price and was 2nd which was pleasing and judge n jury was 5th which was a little unlucky perhaps, rumbling thunder was unplaced. Tomorrows bets: 2.10 York Another fantastic looking handicap, Dangerous Midge won mightly impressively last time out on seasonal reappearance, lightly raced unexposed and open to plenty of improvement having won by over 5lengths easily in a decent enough field 11lb rise in weights could be easily overturned today as he has all the credentials of a potentially smart group performer, step up in trip certainly does look a problem and I am really sweet on him. The other interesting runner is Shadows Lengthening who again should be up with the pace although wide draw isnt ideal, but he showed he is just as capable on turf as on the aw when 3rd last time out off a mark of 92 up a 1lb for that and returns to a trip in which he has won over 4 times and more experienced jockey steps in for this tricky job of getting him to the front in a big field. 0.5pt e/w dangerous midge 13/2 hills 0.25pt e/w shadows lengthening 25/1 vcbet 8.00 Hamilton Tinaar really impressed me at HQ 2 weeks ago building on his seasonal reappearance when he won by nearly 2 lengths in a fiercly competitive handicap gets into this under just a 3lb penalty, and makes her 4lb better off than her future mark, she is lightly raced and open to plenty more improvement again. 1pt win tinaar 5.10 Newbury Charlie Smirke progressed nicely over the winter finally getting a win on the board off a mark of 67, and followed up with a win on second start after that off a mark of 74, was disappointing when well backed last time out in a 4 runner event, probably unsuited by the pace of the race and the lack of cover he was able to get often pulling to hard. Should get cover and a better pace to run at off a 4lb lower mark than his last win on the AW. 0.5pt e/w charlie smirke 3.35 Newmarket Ocean Legend appears to still be in fine form judged on his last 2 turf efforts when only beaten a short distance by some useful sorts, potentially well treated on aw form having won off a mark of 81 on the aw rated just 80 on turf (due to go up a further 3lb in future). 0.5pt e/w ocean legend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted May 16, 2010 Author Share Posted May 16, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Everything going tits up right now really struggling for even places let alone winners, selections are running good enough but just not enough lol!! 3.10 Ripon This race appears to lack strength especially with some potentially useful 3yr olds but their form is potentially weak, Kerrys Requiem looks a big price to look to fill one of the 3 places available, Kerrys Requiem is potential well treated although not won since a 2yr old but has been placed off much higher marks and is falling in the weights since, had previously been running well off this mark until disappointing last time out but can be excused as was drawn bad and also wrong sort of course to be making ground up at chester, but has run well here twice finish 3rd on each occasion and I cant understand why she is priced at 16/1 0.25pt e/w kerrys requiem 16/1 bet365 3.40 Ripon Hard to see who could lead this small field, Cobo bay has been known to make running but his last wins have come in claimers to suggest handicapper has him should he get a positive ride. Dubai Dynamo was ridden more positively on friday night and just got home to suggest he isnt a one trick pony but a 6lb penalty makes life extremely tough in this small but classy field. Tiger Reigns is entitled to come on for run in lincoln but even so there is a niggling point that he may be held by the handicapper having raced in much better race on last start last season off his current mark and was well held in 4th that day and may just find things tougher this year after a progreessive season last year. Sunnyside Tom is the runne I am going with and I am surprised to see him as big as 9/2 he spent most of last year contesting claimers aswell as handicaps and was nothing but consistent and continued that trend last time out when dead heated for second last time out, should come on for the run and will need to off a 3lb higher mark but with conditions to suit and ideal trip this time. 0.5pt win sunnyside tom 9/2 bet365 4.10 Ripon I tipped up Managua at Yarmouth last month when he was having his first run for nearly 2 years when he just kept plugging on really bravely and he looks a real genuine battler with good attitude, as a 2yr old he was thought good enough for group company not seen since disappointing that day but took to the step up in trip really well and now only 1lb higher today and may be hard to pin back in a weaker race if coping with the faster ground. 1pt win managua 5/2 sj Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted May 17, 2010 Author Share Posted May 17, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 3.40 Musselburgh Nufoudh beat Johnny lesters hair and Mister jingles by just over 2 lengths over CD last week and finds himself 6lb higher in the weights but they are up 2lb and 1lb respectibly and although that margin perhaps wont be as big i feel he is weighted to confirm that form, he was reliable last year. Dhhamaan is the perhaps the main danger he won a weak handicap on the AW and ran 2 respective races on the aw after that and then took advantage of lower turf mark last time out when thrashing a weakish field but concern over the better race and up 8lb in handicap and running 1lb out of handicap makes this a tough assignment. 0.5pt win nufoudh 7/2 bet365 4.40 Musselburgh Socceroo stood out as a potentially well treated mare on her season reappearance at newcastle last time out, she was sold very cheaply one can only assume she failed perhaps at stud or something and hadnt been seen for nearly 2 years but returned with a sound run and f building on that cant be discounted from this race off a 1lb lower mark and useful claimer also taking off a further 3lb. 0.25pt e/w socceroo 7.30 Carlisle Templetuohy Max clearly came on for his run when he was 3rd last week over a mile in similar conditions in a fiercely competitive handicap for the grade and gets in off the same mark which is his last winning mark and has also done all his winning over this trip so this step should be right there. 0.5pt e/w templetuohy max 5/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted May 17, 2010 Author Share Posted May 17, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Last weeks results (quick) basically nothing to report except an awful week; Monday 10th May Bets: 3.40 Brighton- Perpetually 1pt win(unplaced) 4.10 Brighton- Blue Tango 0.75pt win(unplaced), Whats up doc 0.25pt win(unplaced) 4.40 Brighton- Ocean Counttess 0.25pt e/w (non runner) 5.10 Brighton- My Kingdom 0.5pt win(unplaced) 3.50 Redcar- Orangeleg 0.5pt win(3rd) Staked: 3pts Returned: 0pts Profit Loss: -3pts Tuesday 11th May Bets: 3.00 Beverley- Lord of the Reins 0.5pt e/w(unplaced), Pacific Pride 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 4.00 Beverley- Danehillsundance 1pt win(unplaced) 2.20 Yarmouth- Thoughtsofstardom 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 4.50 Yarmouth- Best in Class 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 5.20 Yarmouth- Ultimate Quest 0.5pt win(unplaced) 3.10 Warwick- Lost In Paris 1pt win(3rd) 7.20 Southwell- Speed Dating 0.5pt e/w(2nd 9/2ADV +0.06) 7.50 Southwell- Salerosa 1pt win(unplaced) Staked: 7pts Returned: 1.06pts Profit Loss: -5.94pts Wednesday 12th May Bets: 1.40 York- Forte De Marmi 1pt win(unplaced), Saga De Tercey 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 3.45 York- Mannlichen 0.25pt e/w(unplaced), Veloso 0.25pt e/w (non runner) 7.00 Bath- War Of The Roses 0.5pt e/w(3rd 10/1 +0.75) Staked: 3pts Returned: 1.75pts Profit Loss: -1.25pts Thursday 13th May Bets: 1.40 York- Jaconet 0.25pt e/w(2nd 10/1ADV +0.38), Judge n Jury 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 7.25 Newmarket- Rumble of Thunder 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) Staked: 2pts Returned: 0.88pts Profit Loss: -1.12pts Friday 14th May Bets: 2.10 York- Dangerous Midge 0.5pt e/w(unplaced), Shadows Lengthening 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 8.00 Hamilton- Tinaar 1pt win(unplaced) 5.10 Newbury- Charlie Smirke 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) 3.35 Newmarket- Ocean Legend 0.5pt e/w (2nd 4/1ADV +0) Staked: 4.5pts Returned: 1pts Profit Loss: -3.5pts Saturday 15th May Bets: 3.40 Newbury- Arthurs Edge 0.25pt e/w(unplaced), Desert Phantom 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 2.15 Newmarket- Invisible Man 1pt win(unplaced) 3.25 Newmarket- Royal Diamond 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) 5.10 Newmarket- Jake The Snake 0.25pt e/w(unplaced) 5.00 Thirsk- Jaconet 1pt win(unplaced) 8.10 Doncaster- Tangerine Trees 0.5pt e/w(unplaced) Staked: 5.5pts Returned: 0pts Profit Loss: -5.5pts Sunday 16th May Bets: 3.10 Ripon- Kerrys Requiem 0.25pt e/w (unplaced) 3.40 Ripon- Sunnyside Tom 0.5pt win(unplaced) 4.10 Ripon- Managua 1pt win (non runner) Staked: 1pts Returned: 0pts Profit Loss: -1pts Staked: 26 Returned: 4.69 Not quite sure what is going wrong but something has gone massively off the rails and today was far from getting back on track neither :wall:wall Thread totals; Total Staked: 147.6 Total Returned: 132.09 (P/L -15.51) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted May 18, 2010 Author Share Posted May 18, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 At last we have some results to talk about! Templetuohy max won well tonight and the step up in trip was clearly in his favour tonight, he goes to sales tomorrow be interesting where he is turned out next and for that reason doesnt find himself on my watchlist yet, Socceroo was disappointing having shown up well at the start of the race a 5f sprint might be worth a try she clearly has speed but dropped tamely and jockey reported she lost action and isnt without hope yet if she is ok. Nufoudh showed a fantastic attitude and proved not quite just a one trick pony having to tuck behind the leaders today and took a small gap to win convincingly and earns himself a place on my watchlist; Perpetually- Needs stamina test Whiskey Junction- Showed much better form lto My Kingdom- In form and on winnable mark but when? Speed Dating- Travelled sweetly in need of run Nufoudh- Fantastic attitude, can make all or sit behind Tomorrows bets: 4.55 Goodwood Penang Princess could be hard to beat if repeating his run 2 weeks ago at salisbury over 2f shorter off a 1lb higher mark than todays, he is 1 from 1 over this longer trip and won at this trip very convingcingly before to suggest she could be useful at this trip, should come on for the run and fast ground should suit in an easier race! The saver is gona go on Curacao who really impressed me with his attitude last time out when running on gamely but never quite got there, up a 1lb for that and looks worth another shot at this longer trip on the back of that (2 tries over this trip have proved well beat, once on fibresand didnt take to it and 8 lengths adrift on turf when rider dropped whip). 0.5pt win penang princess 3/1 bet365 0.25pt win Curacao 7/2 bet365 3.00 Lingfield Pedasus might be worth another chance to build on his run last time out when second to run away winner showing a good attitude to continue running on strongly, unfortunately 3rd let the form down miserably next time out and that race does look weak but even so he had shown promise previously before flopping on penultimate start, not sure whether he is quite good enough to shed maiden tag but should be placed and may sneak more if the likely short fav flops. 0.25pt e/w pedasus 5.20 Lingfield Wunder Strike is relatively unexposed and still open to more improvement having racked up a quick 4 timer before found lacking zest on last time out, 6lb better off today (was running under new mark and penalty last time out) and a more experienced jockey on board today has previously won on him and been given a break since, gone well fresh before 0.5pt e/w wunder strike Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted May 19, 2010 Author Share Posted May 19, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Nothing worth writing home about, wunder strike and pedasus were never at the races and worth leaving alone to showing something now, penang was disappointing and Curaco was unable to dominate and struggled. Tomorrows bets; 3.25 Haydock 10 Runner handicap and a case can be made for every single runner and makes this tough and I am gonna take 3 all win only. Webbow run well in some fierce handicaps last season and again on reappearance when shaping well enough before meeting an awful passage in running and is worth a second job in this easiest task for some time for him on fast ground rather than soft. Jordaura clearly came on for the run when staying on very eye catchingly on 2nd start of the season off a 3lb lower mark, 3rd has boosted form having finished runner up on 2 attempts in better races off 2lb higher mark and 5th also ran out credible 2nd next time out in a better race, seems to go on any ground conditions so should be bang there. Kidlat looks overpriced at 10/1 having racked up a quick double on aw then solid turf effort next time out, probably disappointing effort can be put down to soft conditions, useful claimer takes 3lb off so looks hold a claim and at 10/1 a chance is taken on him bouncing back. 0.25pt win kidlat 10/1 bet365 0.25pt win webbow 5/1 bet365 0.25pt win jordaura 11/2 bet365 3.15 Southwell Speed Dating got put on the watch list last time out when staying on eye catchingly from last place to 2nd on season reappearance before clearly needng a run, should come on for that run and has won quickly turned out before and as I have said before Prescott has a good strike rate round here (20%) and his runners appear to be going well enough and is set to run off a 3lb higher mark from next week so this could be his golden opportunity. 1pt win speed dating 4.55 Southwell Salerosa is worth a second chance today, she pulled and pulled on first start of season over this course but should be better for that run and she can bounce back over a slightly lesser trip on her favoured surface fibresand with 5 wins from 7 runs, still only 4lb higher than last years last win in december, biggest concern is the form of the trainer! 0.5pt win salerosa 6.30 Salisbury The Wee Chief earnt himself some credit with me over the winter if not slightly frustrating at times, he has plenty of speed and potential, and I am sure if they made the running with him he could be open to more improvement. He was 3rd on aw when last seen off this mark 3 months ago, won fresh in november and Durcan is an interesting booking. 0.25pt e/w the wee chief Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted May 20, 2010 Author Share Posted May 20, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Havnt watched any racing today so will catchup tomorrow ;) Tomorrows bets; 3.10 Chepstow Hajoum is a worthy favourite, he is a go dolphin cast off but Detori gets to ride again, he goes well fresh and doesnt look to badly handicapped on back of 2 efforts on aw in handicap company but concern is over the trip looks a bit sharp. Olynard was a little disappointing last time out but now comes back from a break and still doesnt look badly treated, still lightly raced and won off a 4lb lower mark on penultimate start over 6f on fast ground. Has shown potential and winning maiden form over 5f to suggest he is able to cope with it but will need a decent pace. Yard is going well and have had a couple of good runners first time up this year including 3 winners in last 14 days. The other interest is Captain Carey who won quite convingcingly at wolverhampton a month ago only up 4lb which looks lenient considering the way he wins his races and looks to still have plenty up his sleeve. 0.5pt win captain carey 4/1 pp 0.25pt e/w Olynard 8/1 pp 4.00 Yarmouth Whiskey Junction made his place on the watch list last time out, he looks in good heart currently and does have course form when 2nd over CD off a 3lb higher mark last summer and could get an easy lead here which would make him very dangerous in my opinion 0.25pt e/w whiskey junction 7.30 Haydock Dont often bet in 3yr old race and especially not stakes races but I have heard that Red Gulch is working extremely well at home, and although not a strong maiden it was good enough for an AW maiden and did win impressively, and form has taken plenty of boosts at a lower level. 1pt win red gulch 7.40 Musselburgh Nufoudh is another running off my watchlist, turned out extremely quickly under a penalty winner, wasnt able to dominate last time out but slip through a small gap and showed a fantastic attitude and proved in fantastic heart, Tylicki rides again and could get a soft lead in this small field main concern is he is turned out so quickly but goes for a CD treble! 0.5pt win nufoudh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted May 22, 2010 Author Share Posted May 22, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Managed to catch up on replays last night; Nufoudh was disappointing, unusually didnt set pace as i expected and is perhaps worth another chance after a few days off. Red Gulch well backed as expected but failed to quite get there Whiskey Junction extremely disappointing managed to get to the front but looked really lack lustre and is taken off list for now. Captain Carey was impressive winner and earns a place on list, and Olynard also stayed on late to suggest he will come on for the run and also goes on my list. The Wee Chief was extremely well backed, and was always up with the pace but nothing got in from behind apart from the runner up which was a surprise as they appeared to go a fair gallop so all the more credit to the winner Dvinsky, Wee Chief should come on for the run and should pick up a race soon. Salerosa ran much better than last time but still just appeared to be lacking enthusiasm for the job Speed Dating was a hard working winner and should remain competitive aslong as handicapper doesnt go overboard Kidlat appears out of form currently, runs again today so will be interesting to see how he goes, Webbow was well backed but when gap appeared he didnt take it and was slightly disappointing. Jordaura ran well running on again from an unpromising position and should be able to pick something up soon with his turn of foot and earns himself place on my list. Perpetually- Needs stamina test My Kingdom- In form and on winnable mark but when? Speed Dating- Travelled sweetly in need of run (Won 10/11F NTO) Nufoudh- Fantastic attitude, can make all or sit behind (Turned out after few days, didnt lead disappointing 11/10F) Jordaura- Running on late with impressive turn of foot last twice Captain Carey- Impressive winner still improving Olynard- Upward curve last season, continue improvement when staying on behind Captain Carey should come on for run Saturdays bets: 3.00 Haydock I was lucky enough to see Borderlescott at newmarket a few weeks back and he reopposes a few of these on the same terms including the winner Equiano who could prove his main danger again, Bastiman has never hide from the truth that Borderlescott is hard to train and to get fit but with a run under his belt he should come off better after staying on impressively. 0.5pt win borderlescott 4/1 sj 4.05 Haydock Not a handicap to go over board on, plenty of question marks over plenty of these, Brierty has had plenty of chances to get in front lately but hasnt, Fathsta rarely picks a win up, Novellen Lad has tended to need a run. Which points me to the overly frustrating Kerry Requiem who isnt one to fully trust but has put up some solid efforts just recently, last time out she was switched off at the back of a small field handicap, they went what appeared to be a steady gallop at the start and she was unable to get going till late on and was doing all her work towards the end and might be worth a chance in this bigger field where hopefully the gallop will be stronger and she looks potentially well handicapped if not becoming ungenuine and moody which I am not sure about yet! 0.25pt e/w Kerrys Requiem 16/1 sj 2.15 Goodwood Johnny Mudball has frustrated since the switch turf, never even threatened last time out on soft ground and is now running on fast ground for the first time and also runs in a smaller field this time and will be interesting if able to get to the front and dictate this and just cant be written off yet after being so impressive on the AW during the winter. 0.25pt e/w Johnny Mudball 13/2 sj 2.45 Goodwood Perpetually is on my list but conerns over Johnston form (although had a few winners yesterday) and whether he is just a sitting duck to something that is progressing in such a competitive heat as this. Managua stayed on really well on his first start for nearly 2 years and was first try over 10f (raced at 6f & 7f as a 2yr old) and kept on really gamely, should come on for the run and still lightly raced and open to plenty of improvement off a 1lb higher mark and this step up another further 2f shouldnt be a problem on the back of his last run. 0.25pt e/w managua 6/1 sj 3.25 Chester Autumn Blades has turned into a very useful performer these days and got up on the line to win to land a valuable competitive handicap over this course, he was rather handed the race as it turned out with amny of the front runners coming back for once after a bit of a messy turn but it confirmed he is still in good form and in this smaller field he could be a leading player just behind the leaders well drawn in stall 1. The other interesting runner is Flipando who is another that won impressively over 6f on AW recently and has run 2 better races than placings suggest last twice in competitve big fields off 2lb higher mark, doesnt look handicapped out of things biggest concern is running style coming from behind may not be suited to this course. 0.25pt win autumn blades 5/1 sj 0.25pt win flipando 13/2 pp 4.35 Chester Saga De Tercey showed up well for a long way in his first start of the season over an inadequate trip before getting outpaced and finding lack of a run taking its toll, takes step back up in trip and now running off last winning mark. 0.5pt win saga de tercey 5/1 pp 3.40 York Hamish Mcgonnagal has been running really well of late and handicapper is giving him a massive chance allowing him to run off same mark as last 2 efforts when 3rd and 2nd, he looks well handicapped on last springs form, always goes well at the beginning of season and could be hard to beat if repeating his run last time out. 0.5pt win hamish mcgonnagal 5/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted May 23, 2010 Author Share Posted May 23, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Tomorrows bets (apologies for not putting todays in here but were in daily thread and will be included) 6.55 Thirsk Shadowtime is an interesting runner in this moderate handicap with several of these not winning much, he is one that hasnt won for a longtime since 2008 off a mark of 68, often run credibably since but run one of his better races last time out off a 1lb lower mark to finish 2nd, both Templetuohy max (3rd) and Sir George (4th) have both won since both fairly impressively so if repeating that form he could be hard to beat although last time out winner Night Lily is clearly the main danger. 0.25pt e/w shadowtime 7.10 Windsor A very tough looking handicap and with a frustrating favourite and far too short to risk, Anne of Kiev is clearly in good heart but her running style has got her into trouble last twice and is a risky proposition at 9/4 would need to be a ew price for me personally. I am shocked to see Sometsuke as big as 5/1 in early market, he has been race on aw and soft ground mainly and shown little yet when he raced on fast ground maiden at bath he was 2nd, and then again on fast ground last time out in handicap company he romped home by 5 lengths, still lightly raced and now got the winning thread and racing fast ground again he could prove a massive danger to all not drawn to badly in stall 9 neither I see no reason he shouldnt be a 3-4/1 shot! My other interest lies in a winter AW improver Spinning Bailiwick, showed little in channel islands on turf but improved out of recognition on aw throughout winter improving 30lb in the handicap and is still 5lb above last winning mark and didnt look to be exactly improving towards end of aw season but was badly hampered on penultimate start and maybe confidence was knocked so is worth a chance to see if new yard can carry on that improvement back on turf. 0.25pt e/w spinning bailiwick 25/1 bet365 0.25pt e/w Sometsuk 5/1 bet365 2.00 Leicester A 3yr old plus handicap, always a worry to see a 3yr old taking on his elders at this stage BUT to say this field is thoroughly exposed is an understatement and this could open the door up for the only 3yr old runner who is unexposed on his handicap debut, having looked a little one paced over a mile this step down to 7f perhaps isnt ideal but breeding suggest it should be ok and a mark of 70 isnt harsh considering he finished behind a couple of useful looking sorts (2nd has a rating of 77)! 0.25pt win plutocraft Will now write up yesterdays and todays thoughts! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted May 23, 2010 Author Share Posted May 23, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Borderlescott was a little disappointing in all honesty, again lacked any finishing kick and theres sure to be another day for him but the well back fav Kingsgate Native was impressive and good training job there! Kerrys Requiem did her usual trick full of running at the finish she might be worth risking again perhaps in a smaller field with a decent pace guaranteed or ridden more to the fore that right out the back all the time she is certainly becoming frustrating but i dont think ungenuine Johnny Mudball is worth watching next time out, clearly improved for the switch to faster ground, my concern would be he looks a hard ride jockey was at work long way out but he did respond, also interesting he was heavily restrained at start when he had perfect opportunity to take lead he burst out (he made all on the AW) Managua drifted massively in the market, but he saw the trip out well enough having been ridden as if he wouldnt but stayed on well inside final furlong and is sure to come on from another run under his belt. Felt both Flipando and Autumn Blades looked full of running towards the line but both lacked the gaps etc. usual chester race perhaps worth another chance elsewhere Saga De Tercey was hugely disappointing, heavily backed but didnt find anything off the bridle will need to see something now before getting involved in him again i feel Hamish Mcgonagall was an impressive winner at long last and was a long overdue win, should remain competitive in big handicaps throughout the season but we all know the nature of these hard to string more than 1 together we shall see. As for Sunday; Sparkle Park ran much better than her 50/1 sp would suggest she should have done, not an easy ride looked hard work but kept on, not one to get excited about but maybe a less aggressive ride just sitting behind the pace would suit her more be interesting to see where she goes from here Four Kicks bombed out having won 2 apprentice handicaps was bitterly disappointing, my usual rule of thumb is not to back anything escaping penalty for winner apprentice races simply because they are usually so weak, my own fault perhaps Orange pip showed up well for a long way bit looked to struggle to see her race out Will sort stats out tomorrow internet been down most of night so bit behind! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted May 24, 2010 Author Share Posted May 24, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 Bit behind at mo with, both stats and replays so apologies will get caught up at some point ;) Tomorrows bets: 4.20 Chepstow Tight at the top end of the market and rightly so, several of these ran extremely well last time out with 3 winning last time out, the one that most interests me is DishDasha who won last time out over hurdles, hasnt been seen since romping home on AW off a 10lb lower mark, but has since been in good form over hurdles and could still be going the right way, interesting to note he has never won on turf flat after 9 starts but clearly performs on it. 0.5pt win DishDasha 7/2 bet365 2.40 Ripon Highkingofireland ran a promising race last time out but a concern that he needs some cut in the ground is a niggling problem along with another 2lb rise back in weights put me off him slightly. Bid For Glory is clearly not the same horse he was a few years ago BUT is looking potentially dangerous off this mark, last win came off a mark of 90 on AW in 2007, ran some better races on AW over winter before disappointing last start since been given a break and has gone well fresh before. 0.25pt e/w bid for glory 3.40 Ripon Decent prize up for grabs and if Nicholls has got Jack Dawkins fully wound up for his he could be dangerous (he should be as he was trained for thirsks hunt cup but refused to go in stalls), this is his first run for Nicholls and potentially looks his best chance on paper, his last win came over 2f further than this but has won twice over this trip and having gone the wrong way at back end of last year he now looks well handicapped and worth a try over shorter again with fast ground to suit. 0.25pt e/w jack dawkins 16/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris34 Posted May 25, 2010 Author Share Posted May 25, 2010 Re: Chris34's Flat Thread 2010 4.15 Ffos Las Small field handicap is known for chucking up a suprise and Prohibition may just cause that has been exclusively raced on heavy ground and AW, won on heavy and was a complete no show on 4 aw starts, handicapper isnt taking much chance with his mark back on turf but this will be his first start on fast ground and could well get a soft lead and his stamina may just kick in if fit after a short break. 0.25pt win prohibit 7.00 Beverley Thunderstruck finally showed the same level of form he showed when improving all winter on the AW when chasing home Follow the Flag who went in on a far better race again off a 4lb higher mark, runs off same mark today and a full jockey back in saddle and still potentially well treated on aw form! 0.5pt win thunderstruck 2.40 Ayr Several of these are potentially well handicaped but showing little sign of returning to form but My Gacho has ran creditably on both starts this season and handicapper has given him a chance dropping him 2lb which now puts him 6lb below his last winning mark in august last year, well drawn in stall 1 and fast ground to suit. I am also gonna have a saver on Celtic Suntan who wears the blinkers for the first time and is another that looks well handicapped, having been placed off much higher marks last year in stronger races and his last run was worthless as he was unable to get to the front and never got into it shouldnt have to many problems in this smaller field. 0.75pt win my gacho 7/2 bet365 0.25pt win celtic suntan 11/2 bet365 3.15 Ayr Cheers for Thea ran away with handicap and proved she is as good on turf as AW, she is dangerously handicapped on AW form having won off a mark of 69 rated just 60 on turf currently and even with 6lb penalty today looks well handicapped and 2nd place held the form well when only going down by a nose off same mark (admitly beaten by a 125/1 shot!) 1pt win cheers for thea 4.25 Ayr Five Star Junior is looks the value bet of the race at 8/1, only once raced over 5f but doesnt lack the speed for it and has a smart turn of foot that could catch many of these out if the gaps appear. Has never won on turf but has run more than creditably at a higher level than this and best turf form has come on fast ground so everything is to suit in this race today. 0.5pt e/w five star junior 8/1 bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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