Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11)

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 2.10 Kempton Baylini is currently on a winning mark and has shown that recently with improved efforts coming off a poorish turf season. Currently 1lb below last winning mark when getting up late at lingfield last winter, usually better at lingfield but has shown good form at wolves last twice but has always run solid races here before and draw isnt a massive concern when she is gonna come late of what should be a good pace with mafeking in the lineup! 0.5pt e/w Baylini 7/1 bet365 5.20 Kempton Some good recent form on offer here, Tuxedo is readily opposed in my opinion considering he has failed at every attempt so far over a mile which looks to massively strecth him. LastKingOfScotland tackles a more suitable trip this time round having finished well over 6f last time out but his tendency to find a couple 2 good is a concern. Holiday Snap makes handicap debut after some promising form in maiden when finishing runner up with a couple of winners behind but a 70+ day lay off the concern there. The opposite can be said for Round Won another lightly raced sort who won an early season maiden at folkestone before a decent 3rd in a conditions race at bath in may, not seen since till a couple of weeks ago and went out like a light in final furlong to suggest the run was very much needed but still showed plenty of promise finishing 3rd that race is starting to work out well and could still have more improvement in him off same mark! 0.5pt e/w Round Won

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Need to put this in here from earlier ;)! Will do another awful results round up tomorrow! 6.50 Wolverhampton I am not surprised to see Beetuna well backed throughout the day, he is a well handicapped horse on what form he has showed. Did well in france and made a good start ack in UK when 4th over CD and ran with plenty of promise next twice before things just not going right last twice last tme was a trip too far but drops back in trip tonight and handicapper giving him a real chance dropping him 2lb! 1pt win Beetuna 7/2 lads

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) One early one for tomoz: Will do a proper write up tomorrow morning in a rush but this price is surely not gonna be around because it is massive and that is Before the War 16/1 hills! Could be well handicapped on AW debut and debut for new yard!

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 2.15 Kempton Races dont get much weaker than this to kick the card off, Alana Banana has shown bits and pieces of form she could be a threat from a better draw today but overall profile suggests she isnt one to trust. Boy The Bell won a very weak maiden and has it to do under a penalty back in handicap company. Cheery Cat finally got back to winning ways in a weakish apprentice race up 7lb for that and although apprentice claims all 7lb back has it to do off top weight! So that leads me to Braddock who was well beaten again last time but showed enough to suggest perhaps he was returning to form when finishing 8 lengths adrift in 4th over this course over 7f will be interest to see how he gets on back at 6f today but he is well handicapped if anywhere near his best 10lb below last winning mark! 0.25pt e/w Braddock 20/1 bet365 4.20 Kempton Tipped this up last night when I though 18/1 looked a massive price, but has continued to drift this morning which is obvious concern but will still put him up as to why I thought it looked a massive price! Firstly he is well drawn in stall 10, he is an ex luca cumani horse who really caught the eye when I went to newmarket in the summer when staying on really well at the end that was over a mile they were quick to step him back up 2f at redcar before flopping badly never travelled that well and since been sold to a very capable all weather yard who actually try him back over a mile today and he could just be well handicapped if new yard have him straight and fit! 0.5pt e/w Before the war 18/1 (taken last night) 4.50 Kempton King Olav could be dangerous to dismiss on the fact that he hasnt been running well over hurdles and on turf recently, because he is a much better horse on the AW and has very good record around here, 3 wins from 9 runs and and hardly ever run a bad race around here. Was last seen round here finishing 2nd off this mark in march in a strong looking handicap. 0.5pt e/w King Olav 14/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 3.20 Wolverhampton The Tatling is an old favourite of mine and to be honest havnt tipped him up for a few runs recently lol! But showed signs of a return to form when dropped to lowest ever mark last time out under this useful young apprentice who is up again today, handicapper also quick to realise who could be dangerously handicapped if returning to form having won off 77 in august last year rated just 64 now. He is much better drawn today and if coming back in the same form he could be a very viable e/w player! 0.5pt e/w The Tatling 8/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 2.15 Lingfield Nicholls has been doing reasonably well taking over Glover's yard bu Thunderball is frustrating should clearly win more races than he does and is on a winng mark but oftens finds a couple too good at the moment. Elspeths Boy is a lightly raced sort that should go very well, won only start as a 2yr old on the all weather that maiden looks fairly strong for an all weather race not seen until the 2000 Guineas when hopelessly outclassed and since then gone the right way but appeared to be coming back to form last time out when running on strongly behind the useful lowther having dropped in the weights and had a break. Still young and unexposed could well be well handicapped if returning to best on second try at a mile (first/only time was in 2000G) which he looked to need last time out. 1pt win Elspeths Boy 4/1 hills 3.10 Lingfield Loyal Royal is generally a consistent sort on the AW and you can expect another good run after finishing 2nd 1length adrift of Espy last time out under this jockey off this mark and meet espy on 3lb better terms this time and better drawn this time round. On last winning mark and Bradley yard ticking along well enough to think theyre not short of work yet. 0.5pt e/w loyal royal 13/2 hills 1.30 Southwell Fashionable Gal is certainly open to improvement on handicap debut having unseated at the start on supposed handicap debut at wolves last week. Has finished runner up last 3 starts but doesnt appear the easiest ride she appears to have a mind of her own in a finish which might be worth opposing at a short price and make Kingaroo look a good price, he has been impressive last 2 victories over CD and although a further 7lb higher in the weights but in the form of his life and sure to make a bold bid from the front again. 1pt win Kingaroo 3.30 Southwell Watch Chain looks a young handicapper to keep on the right side of on the fibresand, making it 2 from 3 last time out when beating Ubenkor who was back in 4th and although he is 1lb better off with watch chain today will need to improve again under penalty. Watch Chain is 4lb higher than last time out and shaped as if a try at this trip wouldnt be a problem and bred to stay this far.Yard also in good form. 1pt win Watch Chain

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 1.30 Lingfield Final Drive is sure to be popular in the form of his life at the moment but a massive 12lb penalty and a whole 16lb higher than his first win, certainly got his work cut out against some improving youngsters off top weight. Blue Moon is potentially still open to more improvement and is relatively unexposed, appeared to win with plenty in hand at Wolverhampton under a great ride by Hanagan. Doesnt appear the easiest ride often taking a lot of pushing to get going in but does run on strongly and race probably wasnt run to suit last time out in a very slow time, should get a truer race run around here especialy with Mambo Spirit in the lineup. Professional takes over from apprentice this time and clearly a youngster who could pick up some handicaps this winter! 0.5pt e/w Blue Moon 11/2 bet365 3.00 Lingfield Desperately weak affair and several running out of the handicap or just massively out of form and could give Binnion Bay a chance to atleast pick up some place money, worth forgetting last run when trying 2m clearly didnt stay and then spent most of the summer at various trips but back to what appears to be his best trip these days and over CD which he has won over 2 times including in April off a 1lb higher mark and won this race last year off a 1lb lower mark so is clearly on a workable mark if returning from a small break fit and well. 0.25pt e/w Binnion Bay 16/1 bet365 1.20 Southwell Often need something that is gonna race up with the pace or even make the running around here and Mango Music fits that profile nicely after his first success on the AW last time out over 6 at lingfield, has run well here before and still looks well treated with handicapper only putting her up 1lb and still 3lb below last turf winning mark and wide draw didnt ought to cause too much concern in this small field. 1pt win Mango Music 3/1 hills

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Wrote these out for today before site went down again! 2.10 Lingfield War of the roses could be a little over priced on some pieces of form. Has only won once this year in claiming company but is potentially well treated on AW form from 2009 when winning of a 11lb higher mark. Shown bits and pieces this year and should strip fitter for the run last time out and has a very good record around here and useful claimer takes off a further 7lb off. Yard also in superb form with last 3 runners all winning! 0.5pt e/w War of the roses 10/1 pp 3.20 Kempton Franco Is My Name struggled in the main during the summer, but had showed a clear liking to the all weather last winter including 2 wins round here and bounced back to his best under a confident strong ride last time out under this jockey over CD. Could still be open to more improvement and won with plenty in hand last time out and a 3lb rise looks extremely lenient! 1pt win Franco is my name 11/4vc 5.50 Kempton Itsalreadythursday was a horse that caught my eye several times last year but massively failed to capatilise on promise, but has massively dropped in the weights and now looks competitive having finished a strong finishing 2nd at wolves over 7f under Ahearn, if building on that promise again having been hampered when trying to make a bid, a good gallop is assured with Goodbye Cash in the lineup. Well drawn to get a good position today. 0.25pt e/w Itsalreadythursday 11/2 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 12.10 Cheltenham Great to see some turf action back as much as I love AW!! Spirit River looked to be going really well last time out at Newbury on first try at fences until coming to grief, was well backed that day to suggest he had been going very well and if learning from that and has had enough work to keep him fit and well he ought to be hard to beat having had some really useful hurdle form inclduing winning the Coral Cup. 1pt win Spirit River 11/8 corals 12.40 Cheltenham Monetary Fund was unluckhy last time out to make a bit of a mess of the last hurdle as he stayed on very strongly after on the flat and perhaps would have won if he had jumped the last better. 5lb rise fair enough for that effort having finished well clear of 4th and the rest of the field. Geraghty got the ride today and stll unexposed and open to further improvement! The other interesting runner Cockney Trucker who is a bit wobbly over fences often jumping a bit sketchy but had won a couple of weakish novice events but back to usual ways in handicap when jumping awfully, put back over hurdles today and gets sound ground and could make his presence felt having placed in a grade 3 event off a 4lb lower mark. 1pt win Monetary Fund 5/1 bet365 0.25pt e/w Cockney Trucker 14/1 bet365 3.45 Wolverhampton Gutted Hugh has got hold off Pineapple Pete he entered my notebook as a real strong entry having looked as though he was cruising for most of the way last time out before fading in the final furlong as if in need of a return to 5f and as if the run would bring him on and on that evidence looks well handicap and gets to run off the same mark. Queally replaces inexperienced young apprentice today. 1pt win Pineapple Pete 9/2 vc 5.15 Wolverhampton A race that lacks much depth and perhaps wont take much winning! Khajaaly won last time out but his profile is one of extreme inconsistency and he was fresh for that run so concerns over him off a 4lb higher mark. Just Timmy Marcus has been very consistent on the AW again recently but doesnt win often but he now looks poised to win a weak race like this going down by just a head last time out off the same mark today and has won off a 1lb lower mark could easily be bang there in this race! 0.5pt win Just Timmy Marcus 7/2 bet365 6.45 Wolverhampton Captain John Nixon has worked his way up the handicap from a very lowly rated 45 to now be rated 86 absolutely thrashing rivals along the way tad disappointing back on turf at newmarket in the summer given a break and needed the run at kempton but straight back to winning ways last time out over CD proving he can cope with this track and surface and appeared to win with load in hand yet again and a 6lb rise may still not be enough to stop this unexposed improving sort shame Atzeni not aboard today but Ahearn a good replacement and well drawn! 2pt win Captain John Nixons 3/1 Hills

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 1.55 Cheltenham Master minded might just be worth taken on at a shades of odds on. Recent record around here hasnt been great and at 8/1 Somersby looks a massive price winning the Henry VIII last year in great style and done little wrong since, few sketchy jumps last time out didnt help his case but if stripping fitter and the kinks have been ironed out then he must have a massive EW chance on sound ground. 0.5pt e/w Somersby 8/1 hills 2.30 Cheltenham Twiston-Davies yard got back on track with there early season winners yesterday racking up another winner. Little Josh was fairly impressive when winning paddy power over this CD last time out when making all and jumping enthusiasctically and clean big jumps which just bought him lengths, beat a strong field that day and a 9lb rise looks fair and a clear set of jumps he could be hard to beat. 0.5pt e/w Little Josh 13/2 bet365 2.55 Southwell I tipped Novastasia up lto at 50/1 and she ran a cracker as perhaps I thought she would, yard were in cracking form and had dropped a long way in the weights and first time blinkers clearly worked. She is related to some useful sorts and the form of that race working out well with 3rd and 2nd winning next time out, runs off same basement mark today and if the blinkers do their job again today back over 7f should suit. 0.5pt e/w Novastasia 8/1 bet365 1.35 Lingfield Billy Red is at his best round here and when he is able to dictate but was given a different ride last time out when unable to dictate he was held up and was unlucky to not reel in the winner who has since gone on to win again. Billy Red gets to run off same mark today and on that evidence looks well handicapped and has won off a 1lb lower mark. Could easily get his own way in front today and well drawn to do so! 0.5pt e/w Billy Red 13/2 vc 2.45 Lingfield Baylini is another that is well suited to Lingfields swooping home bend, winning 4 times round here and ran cracker just 4 days ago over a trip that was far too short really staying on at the death but just not enough to reel in the winner. Runs off same mark and Doyle back on board and recent form certainly suggests she is in form unlike most of these. 2pt win Baylini 2/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 6.20 Wolverhampton Sunset Kitty is an interesting runner here today she really caught the eye last time out on handicap debut, she ran on really strongly but was given far too much to do. Gets to run off same mark today and that mark looks an extremely fair one on what she has achieved in maiden company and comes into this very unexposed and open to bags of improvement! 1pt win Sunset Kitty 7/2 coral

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 3.50 Wolverhampton Quite a wide open looking heat for the grade and some interesting runners! Yourelikemefrank is unexposed and improving but probably isnt very much value at the top of the market carrying top weight under a 6lb penalty in a tougher race than last time out. Your Gifted goes unpenalised for a win in weak app handicap last time out in first time eye shields but that was on fibresand. Almatty Express and Pinball are both in form but both ultimately unreliable. Sir Don is of some interest having run really well on first time out for over a year but ran abmissmal last time out and needs to bounce back today but could easily do so on a lenient mark. But one catches me at a massive price and is clearly gonna be either up there or finish stone last but at the price is worth a risk. And that is Lets Move It who doesnt look devoid of ability like his mark would suggest, running 2lb out of handicap today but clearly hard to place off such a low mark. Although best form has come at southwell worth a chance on wolverhamptons polytrack. He stumble badly last time out which was his first run for over 180 days and did make some tidy headway throughout the race before found wanting in the finish and could strip fitter for a yard that isnt a stranger to a big price winner and well drawn in stall 3 to do so. 0.25pt e/w lets move it 33/1 bet365 4.50 Wolverhampton Another similary wide open event with many could have a chance. Ethics girl is often reliable and was badly hampered last time out so worth forgetting. Leyte Gulf loves it round here but this looks tougher than some of his recent wins and often starts slowly. Storm Morning was well held behind Jezza and even 6lb turnaround might not be enough! Therefore Im gonna side with Jezza who has won his last 2 starts back over a more suitable trip and lightly raced and still open to plenty of improvement and plenty to like about the way he won last time out going readily clear of the rest of the field, 8lb rise might not be enough for a horse rapidly improving! 1pt win Jezza 11/4 hills 4.50 Wolverhampton The Tregonning yard is in fine fettle at the moment and they run Lady Rosetta here, she is closely related to the useful AW horse Harting Hill. She was extremely green last time out and was not hard pushed to run on quite encouringingly that was under an inexperienced apprentice today Catlin takes over and we all know what he is like on the AW and is clearly a strong sign of a big run in what looks a very weak end of year maiden! 1pt win Lady Rosetta

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Must get results caught up again hope to do them maybe Wednesday morning if get time bit mad at the moment! 1.25 Southwell Good looking handicap for the course. Silaah looks first string on jockey bookings of the Nicholls 3 but hung badly last time out and clearly a concern. Out of the 3 La Capriosa looks the most interesting to me who struggled to cut much mustard back on polytrack last time out from a wide draw and worth forgetting about but does have a very good record over this CD but a career best needed now and Equeleus Pictor was only 1 length behind him last time out and gets a 3lb turn around in the weights if not counting jockey claim and caught the eye staying on well in the finish as if his turn werent far away again. He is very attractively handicapped at the moment having won off a 10lb higher mark last year and also well drawn over the flying five down the middle here! 0.5pt e/w Equuleus Pictor 8/1 hills 1.55 Southwell Another good handicap with several of these with a good chance on paper but Nazreef looks a class above some of these. Lightly raced and unexposed, and certainly open to more improvement. 2 from 2 over CD and shaped well last month in competitive apprentice handicap at doncaster that was over 7f and he was staying on well and should clearly relish this step back up in trip and a truer test on the Fibresand. Wide draw not ideal but I fully expect him to be up with the pace and fairly wide and therefore come down the stands side which it is paying to do at the moment. 1pt win Nazreef 5/2 hills

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 1.40 Lingfield Farleigh House isnt without a chance in this competitive handicap. Dark Promise is far too short to get involved in although on paper is the winner, having raced on unfavoured ground and still won well last time out and a 5lb rise could under estimate that run having also idled! Farleigh was running well on the AW when last seen at wolves in October last year when finishing runner up off same mark as today over extended mile and prior to that had won off a 4lb lower mark on both occasions shaped as if a step up in trip would be a massive positive so no surprise to see hm stepped up for flat debut for new yard who have a good record around here 6 wins from 18 33% S/R and LSP of +46.50 fairly impressive, is fit from hurdles although those efforts not fantastic so hope rest on return to polytrack. 0.5pt e/w Farleigh House 18/1 vc 2.15 Lingfield I hate backing app handicap winners next time out who go unpenalised often go off a false price but to be fair Mind The Monarch doesnt look a false price in what looks a dreadfully weak event with many of these who have massive question marks. He runs fairly credible all the time and at this level that counts for something, fitted with the visor last 2 times has brought about significant improvement when 3rd and 1st last time out, that form looks solid with 2nd going on to win next time out, same jockey up today and able to claim his 5lb today. 0.5pt win Mind The Monarch 7/2 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Bit of a rush so sorry these are a little short! 1.10 Southwell Insolenceofoffice took a while to get a win but now has won 3 on the trot but has to prove effective on fibresand today whereas Even Stevens proved a loving for it last time out when running away with a decent enough nursery over 6f here last time out drops back to 5f today but previously won over 5f so no concern and could b well ahead of handicapper despite being 3lb out of the weights officially here and Dandy's satelitte yard in fantastic form! 1pt win Even Stevens 3.15 Wolverhampton Hulcote Rose won very easily yet again last time out and worth far more than the winning margin suggests as she was winning going away that was 3rd over course and could easily land the hatrick today. She is 3 from 3 over wolves and the form from last race is being upheld with with a couple behind continue to run well and placed in strong races! 1pt win Hulcote Rose

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 12.30 Southwell Je Suis Unrockstar is another horse that has benefitted from Nichols taking over the Glover yard having won his last 2 starts on the fibresand and showed a real liking for the surface, could still be well handicapped under 6lb penalty having won with ease last time out over the flying 5f. The biggest concern is the step back up in trip but won going away last time out and has run well over 6f before but does need to prove the improvement back at this trip. But current form of the yard is a big boost. 1pt win Je suis unrockstar 1.35 Southwell Diggeratt proved useful enough in the autumn for the Fahey team before joining current connections after winning a claimer over 11f around here droped back to a mile last time out in a claimer again and was made to work before going on and very much shaping as if stepping back up in trip was the way forward and gets that today, not thrown in at the weights only having 4lb to spare on OR on nearest rival top weighted Camps Bay but she comes into this in much better form than Camps Bay so should hold upper hand and the rest of the rivals have a lot to find at the weights. 1pt win Diggeratt 5/4 hills 2.40 Southwell Hard to keep track of all Dandy's runners at the moment and working out which ones are first string in races where he is running as many as 4 runners sometimes is very hard. He runs 3 in this race 2 from the satelite yard and 1 from his regular, the satelite yard are in much better form and are shaping well so that discounts Something for me and leaves Docoofthebay who is a useful horse on his day but not always the most reliable these days and therefore leads me to the far more reliable Thunderball despite running 2lb out of the handicap he isnt too badly handicapped having won off this mark last year. He is also a front runner and is well drawn to do that and has paid to be front rank recently around here as is usually the norm and shaped as if a drop back in trip would help last time out on fibresand debut when he was well backed and ran with plenty of promise. 0.25pt e/w Thunderball 14/1 lads 12.50 Lingfield I am not happy to give up on the Ex Cumani horse Before The War who has proved bitterly disappointing since catching my eye at Newmarket in the summer when staying on. Failed to build on that last start for Cumani at Redcar and failed to land a real blow on first time out for new yard and could strip fitter for that run and takes a big step up in trip today. That race is starting to work out VERY strongly for an AWrace which gives some hope to improvement off what looks a very lenient mark now. 0.25pt e/w Before the war 2.30 Lingfield Reverend Green is unexposed and was promising on debut for new yard last time out, that was his first race for over 200days and he only finished 1/2 length behind the useful Franco is my name, gets to run off same mark today and should appreciate this further step up in trip and has showed a liking for a deep surface at Southwell before so shouldnt have any problems should the surface ride deep again today and has won a bumper over 14f so stamina isnt really a concern and looks well treated if repeating that form again today! 1pt win Reverend Green 6/1 pp

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 12.35 Southwell Thoughtsofstardom is kept very very busy on the AW throughout the year and this winter appears to be no different, he returned to form over CD on penultimate start when finishing 2nd on slow going like today and was well clear of the rest of the field that day, 1lb higher than that day but Atkinson is able to claim his 5lb today and looks on a good mark he is 11lb lower than last aw winning mark. Needs to bounce back from poor effort last time out but is a horse that can do that especially as that was over 6f and is yet to win over 6f! 0.5pt win Thoughtsofstardom 9/2 lads 2.05 Southwell Nazreef is a real bank in my opinion the biggest I have seen for sometime and even at 1/2 looks a good bet which is very wierd! He was ultimately impressive when beating a good southwell field last time out beating follow the flag and elusive fame that day who both reoppose today but he thrashed them that day by over 11lengths eased down and he looks a class above these lot although could be very hard to place from now on. Only concern is the deeper surface but should still cope and is 3 from 3 round here! 5pt win Nazreef 8/15 lads 3.05 Southwell The Buck looks an interesting runner in this handicap he won a handicap hurdle back in october on very heavy ground at Cork and again ran respectably last time out over hurdles at cork again 8 days ago so plenty of confidence he is in form. He has made the journey from Ireland so they must be fairly confident and is only 6lb above last winning mark and main concern is the surface if he can handle it although form on heavy ground is a positive and stays further than this. 0.5pt e/w The Buck 13/2 coral 3.35 Southwell Kumbeshwar looks another good chance on a surface that holds no questions to him, he won a course claimer on penultimate outing beating some useful horses on unfavourable terms and if that is taken literally he could still be well handicap even under a double penalty for winning a course handicap last time out winning by 5lengths and going away to suggest this step up another furlong in trip is of no concern. 1pt win Kumbeshwar 9/4 corals

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Latest results catchup AW Season Since 1st Sept: Total Staked: 195.95 Total Returned: 164.25 P/L: -31.7 Disappointing run has continued but things have improved slightly recently so fingers crossed a turn around is possible!! Jump Racing Results: Total Staked: 21.5 Total Returned: 13.05 P/L: -8.45

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 2.05 Lingfield Fantasy Gladiator had often shaped to me as if not quite genuine and also never looked a real stayer over 7f, but he has really got his act together especially last time out when faced with 1mile when he quickened clear in good style, it may just depend which mood he turns up in today as to whether he can overturn a 7lb rise in the weights and is probably not worth that risk. Final Drive is another in fine form at the moment but meets a lot higher grade of horse today than his usual class 5/6 type horses. Mafeking won in good style last time out and could easily get a soft lead in this race which makes him interestng again but his ability to bomb out is off putting especially around lingfield where front runners struggle. So that leads me to lowther who has returned to form since switched to polytrack and refitted with the eyeshield. He ran well last time out off new mark when he was forced to race wide and held up on day it didnt pay to be held up and the winner made all and the second tracked him so worth forgiving him that. My main concern is that this yard have a tendency to use apprentices until they think a horse is primed and then put a prof up to get the win but Im hoping theyre using this young lad to help lighten this load as this mark has proved beyond lowther before. 0.5pt e/w Lowther 7/1 corals 2.35 Lingfield Anne of kiev is the one to beat if getting the cuts when needed. She is clearly a talented sort but the way she races and has to be produced late cost her plenty of races over the summer. But right back to best when getting up late and always looking like she would at lingfield last time out. Rised 4lb for that effort which looks fair as she was winning going away and very easily and the form working out well from that race and if getting the cuts required she will be hard to beat so your not betting on ability your betting on the way the race unfolds in my opinion. 1pt win Anne of Kiev 11/4 vc 3.05 Lingfield Magic Of Rio looks an interesting runner for an inform Evans yard, she ran extremely well first time out for this yard yesterday and aslong as she can cope with a quick turnaround she could improve on that effort having been rated as high as 84 and winning off that mark too. Now dropped to bottom rating of 45 having been running for the awful trainer Peter Grayson who really struggles to find any form in his horses. She ran well for a long way yesterday and perhaps an easy 6f would suit having won over 6f before on the fibresand gives hope she will see the trip out. 0.25pt e/w magic of rio 11/2 vc 4.25 Kempton Breathless Kiss has gone very close last 2 starts and Fallon looks a strong booking but drop back to 5f looks a concern although her 2 wins came over this trip in younger days. Grudge looks a massice price at 10/1 having won last 2 starts on the polytrack at wolves before flopping of new mark at southwell last time out but worth forgetting about that run when he was never in the race when the surface is riding so slow and should be much more suited to a return to polytrack and only 2lb higher than last win which looks fair considering what he beat that day and winning by 1/2length. 0.5pt e/w Grudge 10/1 bet365 5.25 Kempton Kitty Wells looks a strong sort for this race. She improved for the step up in trip last time out on debut on the polytrack aswell and if that improvement continues into handicap company his opening mark of 68 doesnt exactly look overly harsh. She was heavily backed before supposed handicap debut and has been well backed again this morning to suggest she is handicapped to win races and Cumani runners rare this time of year. 2pt win Kitty Wells 11/8 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 12.10 Southwell Shostakovich looks modest at best now with the handicapper looking to have him in his grip now after a few promising efforts around here. That cant be said about Even Stevens until perhaps today, he looks hard to beat having absolutely bolted up last 2 outings over CD on first start for Dandy Nicholls who has been in good form with his new satelitte yard. 16lb rise might look harsh but didnt look like stopping last time out and could easily defy a hefty rise in what looks a modest nursery. 2pt win Even Stevens EVS hills

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 12.05 Lingfield I am a big follower of the Tregoning yard mainly because I tend to get some info every now and again BUT I have NOT heard anything about this one! Most of his horses have cost me dearly this summer with the yard massively out of form but they have really struck a rich vein at the moment and have their string in good form especially the youngsters. Lady Rosamunde made a promise start over 7f at Kempton nearly 2 months ago, yard clearly not pushing her having not turned her out quickly. She finished 2nd that day running a tad green in stages and should have learnt a great deal from that and that race working out well with 4th and 7th going on to win next time out and 3rd and 8th finishing runner up next time out. She is a half sister to Meeznah so surprised to see her not stepped up in trip but having said that she is also half sister to admitly very modest Lyric Art and she has won over 7f at a low level. Also worth noting Hayley Turners record with Tregoning 24 runs with 6 wins 25% S/R with a LSP of 27.20 and is 1 from 3 with Tregoning 2yr olds! 2pt win Lady Rosamunder 10/11 bet365 12.35 Lingfield Several of these a well handicapped but most are struggling to beat a rival home at the moment which is massive concern therefore I am drawn to Dichoh who's last run is worth forgetting about having raced over a trip his yet to prove he stays. Back over 7f today which he has won over 3 times (best form has probably come over mile but such a weak race). He caught my eye in a claimer over CD earlier in the month when he was not favoured at the weights but finished very close to the market prinicipals and was staying on very well at the end on a day when hold up horses werent favoured. Visor replaced with cheekpieces today and defenetily needs something as he can be a lazy sod and take a lot of stirring up in the finish but Baker does know the horse and can get a tune out of him. Yard have limited resources but have done nearly all there winning over this course 5 wins from 50 and a LSP of +16.00. 0.5pt e/w Dichoh 13/2 bet365 1.40 Lingfield Secret Asset is sure to give it another good go for an inform yard and 8lb rise fair enough but probably isnt much value at 5/2 even though he is clearly the class act in the field. For Piscean looks a massive price at 7/1. He has won 3 of his last 4 starts and the one he didnt is worth forgiving to be honest when you look at the way the race unfold was never able to get a blow in but made up for it last time out when bolting up yet again in good fashion although had to work a little harder that time but a 4lb rise looks kind on a rapidly improving horse who is 2 from 3 over course. George Baker opts for Secret Asset today which is a concern BUT Piscean beat Secret Asset last time they met on level marks in handicap and Piscean actually gets 3lb in hand today. 0.5pt e/w Piscean 7/1 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Ok heres the plan :rollin! I need a change of direction or something as things just cant get much worse at the moment! Basically what I am gonna do is work out the loss of my current AW betting and put it to one side for now and then start a new P/L on my new approach so I can easily see whether it is working or not and then of course at end of season put the 2 together again and hope it comes out atleast level lol! Basically I am gonna start having more than 1 selection in a race which is something Ive tried before loosely and worked well, also my staking has to change as it is very hit and miss and must get out of such a religious staking procedure! This all starts from today :D!

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 1.25 Wolverhampton Negatives first; Garstang is on a favourable mark but has shown little of his former self on most recent starts and 6 months off the track also a negative as has never gone well fresh before. Fear Nothing didnt have to be at best to land a very weak maiden at lingfield on penultimate start and struggled last time out over CD in a handicap and could struggle again. Towy Boy also has to come into consideration BUT he has such a wide draw to overcome in such a competitive field doesnt make him look attractive at his current price. So now to the positives, Mango Music has run well for Fahey on several occassions this seasons and ran a real tough race on penultimate start to just hang on to victory over 6f at lingfield was a total no show last time out at southwell but perhaps worth forgetting about as yet to confirm she acts on surface, drops back to 5f today which shouldnt be a problem having won over 5f in summer on turf on a 3lb higher mark, she remains only 1lb above last winning mark and has to be a threat at a decent price! Efistorm is another interesting runner for all he is thoroughly exposed and holds little secret from the handicapper at the age of 9, rated higher on turf but is effective on AW, 4lb below last winning mark on the AW several years ago now but was in fine form on turf in the summer and looked in good fettle when rattling home in a CD claimer on penultimate start, not at best last time out although again met trouble in running but did get the race run to suit so was a tad disappointing if able to recapture form of CD claimer would have a shout in this in race that should be run to suit with several front runners so a strong pace likely. Finally Absa Lutte she isnt the easiest to predict at times does clearly have issues (runs in bandages and is often withdrawn from races) but she is a very capable mare at times and is currently handicapped to win races having slipped back down to last winning mark after a few disappointing runs on back end of turf season, since changed yards and been given a break. Has gone well fresh in the past and well drawn to track the pace and looks massively overpriced. 0.1pt e/w Absa Lutte 20/1 vcbet 0.1pt win Efistorm 12/1 bet365 0.2pt win Mango Music 10/1 lads 2.35 Wolverhampton Chookie Hamilton has taken to staying in a good fashion catching the eye on numerous occasions and none more so than last time out when keeping on off a hefty weight over the 2mile trip for the first time, again has to do it the hard way again today carrying joint top weight but does have an apprentice (who admitly still seeking first win) taking off a very handy 7lb, he loves it round here aswell with 5 wins from 13 starts over here. Camps Bay gained a very big confidence boost last time out when absolutely thrashing rivals in a claimer over 1m4f at southwell, only beat one horse of significance that day and that was Dggeratt who ran too bad to be true but even so Camps Bay didnt do anything wrong except hang in the straight like many do at southwell, he had previously been staying on far too late in his races round here in handicaps and therefore has to be of interest taking a big step up in trip and if seeing out the trip remains handicapped to win races having won off 79 and rated 78 today. 0.2pt Camps Bay 7/1 corals 0.1pt win Chookie Hamilton 15/2 bet365 3.40 Wolverhampton Final Drive is impossible to ignore, his rapid improvement shows little sign of leveling out at the moment having won in fantastic style last time out to get up and beat Lowther over a mile at Lingfield, they finished well clear of the rest of the field and that was a decent field again meets a decent field on a 6lb penalty for that win but you just wouldnt wanna bet against him at the moment, race guaranteed to be run to suit with Suit Me and Fastnet Storm in the lineup to guarantee a decent clip. That said the other threat has to come from Spectait who although in the doldrus for a long while has a decent strike rate with 7 wins from 15 starts on the AW and finally took advantage of slipping mark last tme out when gaining a good victory, remains 1lb below hghest winning mark and has strung good efforts together before. 0.3pt win Final Drive 10/3 coral 0.2pt win Spectait 11/2 bet365 4.50 Kempton All of these horses come into this in pretty much good heart, Ebraam is a class act on his day including a fine second in a listed event at lingfield last year but has a tendency these days to blow hot and cold and blew a nasty race last time out which is of major concern. High Spice is another of similar calibre wins races with plenty up the sleeve it appears yet runs a poor race next time like she did last time out and again has to be opposable. Lewyn is perhaps the one horse you would say wasnt at her best at the moment. Feelin Foxy is largely consistent but does find winning hard of recent times with handicapper showing little relent. Sharp Shoes bolted up in a class 6 handicap but has it all too prove against seasoned AW performers at a higher level. For me this race lies with Vhujon and Grudge who met last time out behind Breathless Kiss who came from the clouds. They meet on same terms and there was very little between them last time out, Vhujon rarely runs a bad race and is another that struggles to win in recent times with handicapper showing little relent again where as Grudge does know how to get his nose in front winning twice before flopping on fibresand and then bouncing back last time out. 0.3pt win Grudge 6/1 bet365 0.2pt win Vhujon 9/2 lads 7.20 Kempton Franco is my name improved rapidly last season which was his first season of racing on the AW appeared to go over the top in the spring when form plummeted but this appears to be his time of year having come back to the AW and won another 2 handicaps over 1m2f he isnt an easy ride by any means idled badly infront last time out nearly lost him the race but atleast handicapper cant hit him hard for the win only up 2lb and that win can clearly be upgraded does step up to 1m4f for the first time tonight which he hasnt shaped as if he needs the extra yardage and on breeding he isnt bred to need extra yardage as relatives are all milers although his dam was a winner over this trip and further so has clearly inherited her stamina and his style of racing should see the race out. Farleigh House is also worth a small interest having made a belated return to AW last time out when staying over 1m2f and has often hinted that he needs further, should come on for the run and only 2lb above last winning mark and has placed off this mark aswell so doesnt looked handicapped out of things. 0.4pt win Franco is my name 11/4 bet365 0.1pt win Farleigh House 16/1 hills Total staked for Wednesday 29th Dec: 2.3pts

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Total staked for Wednesday 29th Dec: 2.3pts Returned: 1.3 One early one for tomorrow Blue Moon looks a value bet at the moment! 2.45 Lingfield Shortlist of 4 at the moment, the first to drop out is Expensive Problem who returned to form last time out on the back of a break. Concern is that he hasnt won off a mark this high and this race looks a lot stronger that what he usually contests and the use of in experience apprentice has to be of concern aswell. The next to drop for me is Gallantry who is a horse that needs things to fall right, although still remains on a good mark despite a 5lb rise in the handicap and isnt lightly dismissed but his tendency to be inconsistent at times worries me. The 2 for me are Blue Moon and Tevez. Both have been in brilliant form of late and both look sure to run a fair race again. Blue Moon is still lightly raced and unexposed, she does have her quirks often looking as though she needs a lot of encouragement to go and win her races but theres no knocking her consistency recently and yard remain in good form aswell. She beat Tevez last time out and he recieves 1lb more from her tonight for 2 1/2lengths so arguably should confirm the placings on these terms but Tevez improved 24hr hours and clearly came on for the run and was stayng on all too late and therefore should appreciate this step back up to a mile today, Gannon gets on well ith this horse and is another that has found some improvement of late and hard to rule out more. Blue Moon actually beat the very useful Final Drive who has since gone on to win 3 more times since that race off a 11lb higher mark today which has to give that form a massive boost. 0.3pt win Blue Moon 9/2 vc 0.2pt win Tevez 4/1 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 3.20 Lingfielld Awfully weak handicap with many of these struggling to win but Pocketful of Rye has atleast run to a respectable level on last 2 starts that give him a good chance. Has a tendency to get going to late but hopefully Stainton is starting to learn this and in such a weak field a repeat of his last time out puts him right in here although yet to win a race has dropped a long way in the weights and recent form offers hope in cheekpieces which are fitted for the first time and well drawn in stall 4. The other interesting runner is Dunnetts Yakama, yard often gets a big price winner and this one is a typical class 6 horse qith his quirk often travells really well but finds very little in a battle in the finish but again this is such a weak race has to be considered having made a promosing reappearance over this course over a mile last time out and drop back to 7f no concern and the presence of a more experienced apprentice looks a positive booking although wide draw not ideal. 0.2pt win Pocketful of rye 7/2 bet365 0.1pt win Yakama 9/2 pp

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 6.10 Kempton A 3yr old race with a field of potentially disappointing sorts who often flatter to decieve. Fascination is defenetily worth taking on in my opinion too many placed efforts to her name and often doesnt look fully commited in the finish and does need to prove stamina back at this trip again. Wasara is another that has the form figures to figure in this race but handicapper looks in charge at the moment and just holding her at bay and also coming back after a break and didnt go well fresh before. Dosti looks a big price making his second start for Vaughan in first time blinkers which do need to have desired affect although last run can be ignored considering that was around southwell and on the back of a break, he won nicely on first start for Boyle in a 11f maiden over this course but failed to build on that on next start in handicap but they did try and make the running with him and perhaps that didnt suit so excuses again and perhaps worth another try over a further trip. Before the war is a horse I have admantly followed having caught the eye at Newmarket in the summer when staying on well off a mark of 66 for Cumani and is another that failed to build on that but has dropped down the weights now to 60 and looks well handicapped. Little can be taken from his first start for new yard but should come on for the run and steps up to a more suitable trip aswell this time wide draw not ideal but small field and hold up horse not without hope! 0.1pt e/w Dosti 20/1 pp 0.2pt e/w Before The War 14/1 pp 6.40 Kempton Perfect Act has never won off a mark this high before and looked well held last time out. Everymanforhimself has been out of form for a long while but did get back to winning ways but that was at Southwell and didnt need to do much to win that race. Vhujon is held on the running of Ray of Joy last time out although he did run a decent race last time out yesterday so could be dangerous. Anne of kiev is a horse I have said for a long is better than she pretends to be and could easily be a listed horse running in handicaps in my opinion. She should have won more in the summer but often met trouble in running but did it very convingcingly last time out and a 6lb penalty doesnt look harsh especially with that form taking a boost last night with Feelin Foxy winning nicely last night. Anne Of Kiev has looked well at lingfield aroudn the opening home bend but the longer run in should give her a chance to stay out of trouble tonight. The other that is worth a small interest is Ray of Joy who beat Breathless Kiss by a neck last time out only up a 1lb for that effort and Breathless Kiss has since won very well off same mark and that form is another that looks solid. 0.5pt win Anne Of Kiev 9/4 vc 0.2pt win Ray of Joy 11/2 bet365 Total staked Thursday 30th Dec: 2.1pts

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Thursday 30th Dec staked: 2.1pts Returned: 1.65pts New AW Total: Staked: 4.4pts Returned: 2.95pts One early one again for tomorrow as dont think Kings Colour price wont be around already been squeezed in! 1.30 Lingfield Good looking race on paper. Sarahs Art comes into consideration after a good run over 6f at wolves last time out, quickly up 3lb for that effort and although on winning mark there isnt a lot of room for error and not sure 7f suits best. The 2 that really interest me are Kings Colour who supports the first time visor today and has been allowed to slip to a very attractive mark, clearly didnt stay last time out and sure to go better over ideal 7f trip, 2lb below last winning turf mark and just 2lb above last CD mark, inform Baker booked for inform yard and usually races in better class than this. The other that catches my eye is Suffolk Punch who also comes from an inform yard of Baldings and looked an all over winner 1f out last time out before dieing final 100yrds and yard quick to react to that dropping him back to 6f and that atleast shows he is inform and handicapper also dropped him a 1lb and does have place form off higher marks. 0.3pt win Kings Colour 6/1 bet365 0.2pt win Suffolk Punch 4/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 12.30 Lingfield A weak looking final 2yr old nursery of the season. Tor Sturgis does have the odd big priced winner and has a very good record on the AW especially at Kempton and Lingfield with healthy LSP, she has had a winner recently aswell and therefore her Century Dancer has to come into consideration especially since he has been racing over too far last twice but ran a promising race when last racing over todays trip stayng on very well off a 1lb higher mark well drawn today. But my main stake will go on Higgin's Woop Woop who looks very well treated on the back of a 2nd to Energizer earlier in the week, handicapper sure to react to that when able to but at the moment his current mark looks lenient if coping with quick race and coping with 7f but this is a rather weak nursery so hopes rest he on him being a class above. 0.4pt win Woop Woop 7/4 bet365 0.1pt win Century Dancer 16/1 bet365 2.00 Lingfield South African Gold appears to be the sort that is never gonna win by much he likes to get into a battle and has battled really well last twice and finally broke his duck last time out, didnt win by anything so handicapper could only put him up 2lb but had some placed form off higher marks earlier in the season and with the cheekpieces making a positive impact last 3 starts there could still be more to come. The other that could be ovepriced on the back of a perhaps slightly disappointing effort at southwell last time out but potentially worth forgetting about like many runs at southwell but had previously won 2 races over 6f on polytrack at kempton and wolverhampton, does have winning form round here aswell so no concern, 2lb lower than that run at southwell when he wasnt exactly disgraced and only 5lb higher for latest win and perhaps can get back in the groove back on the polytrack 0.3pt win South African Gold 7/2 bet365 0.1pt win Cheery Cat 10/1 bet365 3.00 Lingfield Will of course be having a small wager on the old boy Tatling in his final race! Doesnt owe me a penny several nice wins from him over past few years and a horse that I have followed and has certainly been running into form recently so form claims there aswell ;) !!

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Total Staked: 5.8pts Returned: 2.95pts Tomorrows: 2.00 Wolverhampton Competitive looking apprentice handicap with 7 runners. Hard rule many of these out but I am gonna give Buaiteoir a miss today, this will only be his second start for Darcy and although ran respectably last time out he didnt shape as if a winner waiting to happen having gone up 6lb for winning twice at Dundalk recently and handicapper might just be incharge as didnt win by much so doesnt have a lot of room for error. The other one who is likely to be at the top of the market that I am keen to oppose is Nicholas Pocock yard are in good form but this horse has far too many short priced 2nds and 3rds which just dont attract me and does need a strong race to be seen at best and unlikely to get that today with such a small field. The Kelleway yard is in good form at the moment and they run one of their south african imports here in D'Artagnan who didnt need to be anything special to win a mile maiden at lingfield beating a 69 rated rival that day by nearly 4 lengths and could still have more to offer on handicap debut. The other that interests me is Kidlat who appears to be running into form at the moment, and lost nothing in defeat last time out again stable are in very good form and an apprentice that should know the horse well (she is connected to the yard) and takes off a very handy 5lb and at the moment his OR is 5lb below last winning mark! 0.3pt win Kidlat 0.2pt win D'Artagnan 4.35 Wolverhampton Justcallmehandsome and Merrymadcap drop into a 0-60 for the first in a long while and both are capable on theire day but both showing little sign of form at the moment. Mount Hollow made a very good start to a UK campaign last time out when staying on fourth over CD, has won on AW before in france and handicapper giving him a massive chance off a 2lb lower mark today and form of that race working out well with the winner and 6th place going and winning next time out yard had a winner or two recently so no concerns there. No Complaining won in good enough start after a tardy start, didnt beat much that day and handicap had his says putting her up 6lb but she is still lightly raced and open to more improvement yet and does look at home on the AW aswell. Join Up is nothing but consistent and has to be entered into recogning on current efforts, finally got a win for string of good efforts when beating the Cyril The Squirrel by nearly 2 lengths, not clearest run next day and perhaps race too soon next time out but far from disgraced up 5lb for those efforts and although never won off a mark this high in current form must have a chance! 0.2pt win Mount Hollow 0.2pt win No Complaining 0.1pt win Join Up 2.45 Southwell Snow Bay made Nazreef work extremely hard last time out, field well strung out that day so obvious concerns about that form but remains on a good mark despite a 4lb rise in the weights for that run but has hardly ran a bad race around here before. Follow The Flag was 3rd behnd Snow Bay last time out and gets a 6lb turnaround in the weights for 5 lengths and was staying on well and probably better than the bare result only 1lb higher above last winning mark and does have winning form around here! 0.3pt win Snow Bay 0.2pt win Follow the Flag Staked Today: 1.5pts

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) At last a good day: Staked 1.5pts Kidlat won at 11/4 (taken first thing this morning) +1.13 Mount Hollow N/R +0.2 Follow The Flag won at 8/1 +1.8 Returned: +3.13 Thread total: Staked: 7.3 Returned: 6.08pts