Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11)

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 7.00 Wolverhampton Dark lane looks plenty short enough for a horse to me that looks to need another furlong in my opinion ran well last time out but again shaped as if another furlong would suit better and not for the first time. Defector doesnt come into this with a good record fresh but Neil Callan looks an eye catching booking he won over CD off a 1lb lower mark on first start for this yard and ran respectably off higher marks afterwards before going off the boil and if rest has sparked him up should have every chance from a good draw in stall 1 The other saver bet has to be Valmina who was closing late on over CD in apprentice handicap last time out, that was first start for over 3 months and was encouraging. Professional jockey takes over from inexperienced jockey, yard in good form and is 5lb below last and only winning mark has to be respected off bottom weight. The main bet has to be Sir Nod has won fresh last 2 season over CD and has a good record on the AW. Was in good form in summer but went off the boil and slipped down the weights and now back on last winning mark over CD and 2lb below last turf winning mark in summer. Well drawn in stall 2 for a front runner and yard have had a reasonable time recently. 0.1pt win Defector 22/1 vc 0.1pt win Valmina 4/1 vc 0.3pt win Sir Nod 11/2 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 7.05 Wolverhampton Poor day on the flat and this class 7 handicap looks the best for a bet with a couple that have caught my eye in recent weeks. Our Kes is no youngster but has returned in good form yet again on the aw this year and was a brave winner (dead heating) penultimate start (although placed second) went up 3lb for that effort and was only 2l adrift of the impressive captain cool last time out when he was staying on far too late in a race that it didnt pay to be held up, should get the race run to suit tonight and should hold every chance. Bright Sparky made a decent return to the track last time out staying on at southwell, ought to be suited by return to this trip having previously won over CD, not won off a mark this high but young apprentice takes off 7lb, know little about the rider so obvious concerns there which makes him just a saver. Mary Helen could easily cause a bit of an upset catching the eye in a CD claimer on penultimate start when finishing late and stayed on very late again last time over 9f and should be much more suited returned to this trip, looks well treated on some of his best form from 2009 and looks like returning to form at the moment. 0.1pt win Mary Helen 9/1 vc 0.1pt win Bright Sparky 9/2 vc 0.3pt win Our Kes 7/1 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Brilliant looking card for a sunday on the AW with plenty of competitive handicaps! 3.55 Kempton This is gonna be run at a good clip with so many front runners in the lineup in Dens gift, Pegasus Again and Samarinda. Gonna put a line through those 3 as I feel theyre all got something to prove without taking each other on upfront. Chilli Green is unexposed at this trip and is improving but she often has a tendency to pull hard and this race is competitive again off a 5lb higher mark and would need to settle better which is a massive risk at a short price. Hereford Boy made an encouraging return after nearly a year off the track last time out finishing well in a race that was run at a steady pace but should be much more suited to how this race should be run, had a good run last winter and only 4lb above last winning mark and could come on for the run last time out. Lockantanks finally got a well deserved win last time out having run consistently all winter and did it in convincing style as if there was perhaps more to come, 7lb rise fairly hefty but going the right way all of a sudden and another that should be suited to the way the race should be run. Highly Regal cannot be ignored at any price round here and although largely out of sorts this winter he returned to form last time out when just a shorthead second to the Happy Hammer round lingfield, all best form has come round here over Cd with 6 wins, up a 1lb for latest effort but still extremely well handicapped on best form having won off a mark 8lb higher. 0.25pt win Lockantanks 9/2 vc 0.15pt Highly Regal 6/1 vc 0.1pt win Hereford Boy 8/1

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 2.50 Kempton Aather is for sure an interesting runner returning to the flat for first time since August 2008, has only tried polytrack once and was last and previous form on the flat in my opinion leaves him something to find well beaten in all handicap starts and although another 6lb lower will need to have improved in my opinion. All Beat Routes best form has come on the polytrack, 12 runs with 2 wins and 3 placed efforts including a head 2nd to My Valley last time out over CD, that was his first start since October and can be expected to come on for the run. Handicapper not taking any chances though putting him up 3lb for that effort but may still have more to offer than most in this lineup. For me Wheres Susie looks a massiv price she is a very consistent and trustworthy mare who very rarely runs a bad race, she entered my notebook last time out round here over 11f when she raced up with a decent pace in a race where all the winners and placers bar her came from off the pace and she was the only prominent one to finish near the front, she is still only 2lb above last winning mark and will appreciate return to this trip and Baker in the plate always a positive! 0.2pt win Beat Route 11/2 vc 0.3pt win Wheres Susie 7/1 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 5.00 Wolverhampton John Potts has to have a solid chance back round here, he completed a CD four timer in confident style on penultimate start, was disappointing last time out over a mile at kempton but has every chance to bounce back over CD again. He doesnt look a tricky ride nor does attitude look a problem so why it took him so long to get in front is an obvious concern but Harrison has ridden him to 3 of those victories so know what he is like! Lean Machine has hinted at ability before and finally got off the mark last time out, perhaps wasnt all out but not far off it but handicapper taken a light view of that win only putting him up a 1lb so should still be competitive having slipped so far in handicap. Yard still in good form and should be there. 0.3pt win John Potts 0.2pt win Lean Machine

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Getting a bit of place-itis at the moment :(!! Shit or bust day tomorrow with some short price nap type material in my opinion! 1.50 Southwell Usually avoid claimers and sellers especially this time of year but La Estrelle looks napped for me. He got a good record at this level and racked up a 5 timer in 08/09 and could easily do it again, having made a pleasing comeback after nearly 2 years off the track winning a seller comfortably. Then won last time out in a claimer all round here steps up in trip which looks positive as he looked to be going further clear the further he went, has won over this trip before and should be hard to beat at these weights. 1pt win La Estrella 2.20 Southwell Another race that the favourite looks a good thing, San Antonio has been in good form recently since fitted with blinkers and tried on this surface, winning in very convincing style in january and was a good second behinf the potentially useful Broughtons Day and then again behind the consistent Bentley last time out, further 4lb higher but clearly in good heart at the moment and hard to be enthused about any of the rivals in this race today. Madame Boot could be capable of more but the surface is very much an unknown and she hasnt always convinced she stays this trip. 0.5pt win San Antonio 4.35 Southwell Gonna be a bit of an unexciting day shit or bust basically. Stanley Rigby looks a massive price at 13/8! First his rivals; Turjuman is a Windsor specialist but has won on polytrack, tries this surface for the first time so could easily bounce back as he often does and isnt one to rely on! Nahell doesnt look particularly well treated although meets Stanley on 5lb better terms for 2 lengths hard to see that reversed in all honesty still 5lb above last winning mark. Kipchak well out of form and little form on fibresand. Mexican jay caused a 33/1 upset round here in october but failed to beat a rival last 2 starts and attitude defenetily looks a head strong one. Port Hill is proving consistent on polytrack but still been well beaten last twice and fibresand for first time today. Ay Tay Tate has showed hope on this surface last twice in weak maidens but needs to step up back in handicaps and 2lb out of handicap probably another day and 11/2 looks very short. Stanley Rigby has won his last 4 starts all on this surface and 3 over CD, although hung left noticeably last time out he still asserted and ran on strongly to be quite a convincing winner and a further 5lb higher could still be well treated for such an improver relatively lightly raced and certainly unexposed on surface! 0.5pt win Stanley Rigby 13/8 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 5.35 Kempton Absa Lutte has been hard to predict recently she has been running well enough to suggest she is capable of winning again, btu wide draw did her in last time out as she lacked cover and was keen and similar story today unless they go a good gallop upfront today, although tongue tie is refitted today and looks well handicapped having won a 3lb higher mark and Baker is a very interesting booking after youngapprentice ridden her a lot recently. Estonia has to still be of interest off bottom weight in this handicap, still lightly raced and going the right way in the handicap sphere winning 2 in a row and then 2 good solid placed efforts since, including last time out when going the longest way round and hanging quite badly and might be worth a try this way round jockey also reported she felt sore and has since had a month off and could easily bounce back and she looks a real improver. 0.4pt win Estonia 7/2 bet365 0.1pt win Absa Lutte 10/1 vc 8.05 Kempton Several of these finished behind Clear Praise last time out, he is up 6lb for that win and may still have more to offer but at 6/4 is far too skinny. Ray of Joy looks a massive price if things fall right, she won off this mark 4 starts back and has failed to run to that level since off a 1lb higher mark, does need gaps to appear and needs a gallop to chase but at 20/1 is well worth the risk and a decent record around here with all 4 aw wins have round here over CD. Another that could be overpriced is Ebraam for an in form yard of Ron Harris. Regular on the AW and does know how to win often picking up claimers etc. which keeps his mark fairly static but is usually reliable and runs his race caught the eye last start round here when staying on late behind Clear Praise who had already flown, not so good back at lingfield over 5f but worth forgiving and should be better over this 6f although yet to win round kempton doesnt get that many chances. 0.1pt e/w Ray of Joy 20/1 vc 0.1pt e/w Ebraam 16/1 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 4.20 Southwell Takajan didnt appear to win with much left when last seen on fibresand but does have a good record and not that far away off a 2lb higher mark round Wolves so has to be worth noting with such a good record around here 3 from 7 over CD! Wheres Reiley is another with a very good record here with 4 wins from 11 starts, all in a short period of time last year over 5f, just as effective over 6f and a sign that he has been slowly returning to form recently with improve efforts on the fibresand staying on over 5f here last time out and well worth another try at 6f. Runs off same mark aswell which is 6lb below last winning mark. The one for the saver has to be Interchoice Star, who proved he is effective around this course when 2nd over 6f last time out, when staying on and shaped as if a race might be round the corner for him for all he doesnt look particularly well treated. 0.4pt win Wheres Reiley 9/4 hills 0.1pt win Interchoice Star 6/1 hills

[markmywords]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) WELL IN CHRIS WITH YESTERDAY ALL THE BEST FOR TODAY

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Cheers mark :)!! 4.15 Lingfield 2 runners catch my eye at the prices, Adoyen Spice I though would be a lot smaller than current 11/4. After winning his first race at 50/1 he shaped as if he was well ahead of his mark and ran respectively ever since then and got back on winning trail last time out. Only 3lb higher when a comfortable winner and Callan looks a strong booking and could still have a lot more to offer over these middle distances and goes well fresh so another rest of 30+ days is a good move. Red Willow is another that looks a big price having looked like she is returning to form recently and should come on for recent run having look as though in need of a run and could still be open to some improvement! 0.4pt win Adoyen Spice 11/4 vc 0.1pt win Red Willow 11/1 corals 5.15 Lingfield Goodbye Cash might get an easy time upfront depending on what Kai Mook and Timpanist do, but it should be run at a good tempo which should suit Spinning Bailiwick who has proved effectiveness over a mile recently and has won last 2 starts over 6f and mile and was winning going away and a 4lb rise still looks well handicapped having won 3 in a trot last year and then picked another one up off a 4lb higher mark than todays so handicapper still giving him a very easy time in my opinion and could be hard to be! 0.1pt win Goodbye Cash 14/1 betfred 0.4pt win Spinning Bailiwick 10/3 corals

[Mirage]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Just a quick question Chris..... Only had about 20 bets so far in racing in which i have actualy studied in depth at home instead of betting shop form (betting race to race in shop) and i find myself slipping into auto pilot when it comes to selections. ie. reluactant to back runners who are appearing for the first time in a while (the only reason that put me off an 8/1 winner yesterday), or preferring runners who have had 1 run after their long break and raced well. Do you find you have done the same in the past or even still do it? Suppose the question could be asked to anyone who studies the form in depth but since i ony do the flat racing thought you were the most i could relate to out of the 'Member Threads'.

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Hey Mirage Very good point and yes I do and is often wrong to assume that, always worth checking form as some horses always go well fresh horses like Ymir, Adoyen Spice and Blue Spinnaker come to mind so always worth checking form! As for horses running well on re-appearance very often dont follow up for several reasons normally known as the 'bounce' factor horses just dont go so well again and flatter to decieve. Every horse and every race is different I mean sometimes you get a fresh horse running to keen but finishes in frame in a race that suits prominent runners and of course that needs to be treated carefully. Its all just another angle you have to think about but like you say I am just as guilty at picking horses that have run well on reappearance then bounce and run bad all a learning curve and I often find first few weeks usually go well then falls off for a month or so until form lines work out then all goes down hill as season ends so gonna try and tread a bit more carefully this year!

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Tomorrows bets: 2.30 Wolverhampton Competitive looking sprint with several of these out form but a few come into this in good form, it should be run at a very good pace with several likely front runners. Lucky Mellor is consinder the outside of the lot but would have a shout on best form and looks well overpriced in my opinion. Below form on recent return to the track after nearly a year off and was never ridden to take any part really, all best form has come round here and southwell, last win came off a mark just 1lb higher. Callan is a strong booking in brilliant form and a decent strike rate for Ivory from 15 rides 3 wins yard also going well. Island Legend has been in good form recently with 2 wins including over CD but further 4lb higher for narrow victory and although well drawn for front role again unlikely to get such an easy time up front this time round and may find things tougher and Incomparable was only a neck behind Island over CD but gets a 5lb turnaround in the weights and well worth forgetting his run last time out round lingfield has never looked at home round there and was weak in the market and all best form has come round here and Tylicki takes back the ride again today and not too badly drawn. The price between Island and Incomparable is too big to ignore! 0.1pt e/w Lucky Mellor 25/1 vc 0.2pt win Incomparable 15/2 bet365 5.00 Wolverhampton The newcomers look rather weak in this maiden and worth opposing. Both Arizona High and Sim Sala go without a recent run but both run with credit in maidens and could easily come on if yards have readied them and yards capable and market will tell but on all form shown so far Black Pond is the one to beat, didnt do a lot wrong on debut just didnt perhaps pick up as would have been expected sure to come on for the run and on breeding is the smartest horse in the field by a long way today and will perhaps do better over further in time but even so! 0.5pt win Black Pond Now gonna catch up on results ;)

[Mirage]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Cheers for the reply, interesting advice :ok

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Hindu Kush -0.5 Feet Of Fury +0.6 -0.2 Mr Emirati -0.4 Bentley +0.55 -0.1 Bel Cantor -0.4 Wyeth +0.73 -0.4 Olivino -0.1 Black Baccara -0.3 Seeking Rio -0.2 Elhamri +1.2 -0.4 Kummel Excess -0.1 Copperwood -0.3 Salient -0.2 Suits Me -0.5 Figaro Flyer -0.2 Convince -0.1 Transonic -0.2 Sweet Child O'Mine +2.1 -0.3 Cuthbert -0.2 Shared Moment -0.2 Sherjawy -0.1 Island Legend +0.8 -0.2 Defector -0.1 Valmina -0.1 Sir Nod -0.3 Bright Sparky +0.8 -0.1 Mary Helen -0.1 Our Kes -0.3 Lockantanks -0.25 Highly Regal -0.15 Hereford Boy -0.1 Beat Route -0.2 Wheres Susie -0.3 John Potts -0.3 Lean Machine -0.2 La Estrella +1.67 -1 San Antonio -0.5 Stanley Rigby +1.5 -0.5 Estonia -0.4 Absa Lutte -0.1 Ray of Joy -0.2 Ebraam +2.2 -0.2 Interchoice Star +0.8 -0.1 Wheres Riley -0.4 Adoyen Spice -0.4 Red Willow -0.1 Goodbye Cash -0.1 Spinning Bailiwick -0.4 Staked 12.5 Returned: 12.15 Not the best couple of weeks although couple good winners have kept things manageable roll on April the 2nd! AW totals: Thread total: Staked: 36.5 Returned: 36.9 P/L +0.4

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 5.00 Wolverhampton Competitive low grade sprint handicap. The Tatling continues to tumble in the weights and yard desperate to get a final win into him before retirement but not sure its for him today as his slow starts is becoming an issue. Cavitie looks a big price on his efforts in the summer, he was largely consistent on the AW and did win off same mark as today over this course, cheekpieces on today for the first time and yard capable of getting horses back on track after a few disappointing efforts. The other that looks a tad over priced is Bluebok who on jockey bookings looks second string against the Tatling but 7lb claimer not a bad one and could be quite useful on Bluebok who is a consistent regular on the aw and did get in front on penultimate start under this jockey only 2lb higher, ran respectably under penalty last time out but was always going further than anyone else so excuses but still shaped well and 4lb lower today, has won off higher marks before so should easily be involved from a better draw. 0.1pt e/w Bluebok 14/1 hills 0.1pt e/w Cavitie 14/1 hills 5.40 Kempton Absolutely no pace in this race other than from Kidlat who is a confirmed front runner so this could be run at a dawdle and get a soft lead, Mighty Clarets might push him a little but he looks high enough in the weights these days only just scraping home on penultimate start. So that said Kidlat might prove hard to get past but if anyone is gonna get past it might be Halsion Chancer who looks a massive price in my opinion with this race potentially being run to suit, hasnt always convinved he quite stays this far but has shaped as in need of further than 1mile recently having finished very strongly when last seen in this country behind Final Drive, since run well on the snow in St Moritz although bombed out last time out could easily get back on track here in a race without any real improvers or unexposed runners! 0.3 pt win Kidlat 11/4 lads 0.1pt e/w Halsion Chancer 12/1 betfred

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 3.45 Lingfield This should be run at an honest tempo with Spin Again and Silver Wind in field, also Chinese Democracy went to front last time out this has to suit the finishers and Happy Hammer is in good form but only just scrambled home last time out 2lb rise fair enough, but 2nd has since bombed but 3rd has since won so mixed signals from form so little wary. Ivory Silk absolutely thrashed the inform Spinning Bailiwick and the rest of the field last time out and she was showing signs of a return to form on previous run and now looks well handicapped again having won off a mark 4lb higher than todays and is 1lb better off today than will be on saturday and has to be a worthy favourite surely? The other that is often weak in the betting these days which is a little worrying is Buxton but continues to run well when the race is run at a strong gallop, should get that today. Only 3lb higher mark than last win over CD good run last time out off a 1lb lower mark when closing late at Wolves best form has always been round here at lingfield. 0.3pt win Ivory Silk 0.2pt win Buxton 5.25 Lingfield Estonia looks the one to beat, she shaped as though she is capable of being ridden more prominently last time out and she will perhaps need to do that as there looks a serious lack of pace in this race. She has run well since winning over CD twice in december and looks open to a lot more improvement yet only thing holding me back from a single hefty bet is she hung badly last time out round here and didnt do that round kempton last time so be interesting to see what she does today but that said on form she should be hard to beat. 0.2pt win Estonia

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 5.30 Lingfield Just the one race worth an interest for me today and only 5 runners with Six Wives a non runner. Bold Ring usually mixes it in lesser company than this and hasnt exactly been running with much zest lately, doesnt look particulaurly well handicapped neither. Cape Melody won a reasonable claimer last time out but concerns that was 45 days ago and hasnt been seen since, yard a little hit and miss at the moment which is another concern and is sure to have more to do back in handicap company. Mrs Boss was a consistent if not frustrating sort often not looking the easiest to win with and Millman also admitted on twitter likely to comeon for the race. That leaves Spinning Bailiwick who comes from a yard in terrific form and herself has come back to form as she did last winter, well held by Ivory Silk but she too has returned to form and was well handicapped and has since gone in under a penalty, Bailiwck runs off same mark today and did win off a 4lb higher mark last year and could be hard to beat in this company. The dark horse of the race could be Marys Pet as she is the only front runner in the field and could easily get a soft lead. Only 3lb higher for last win and claimer takes that off, appeared in good heart when just losing out second behind Chjimes last time out and could cause an upset. 0.4pt win Spinning Bailiwick 6/4 bet365 0.1pt win Marys Pet 13/2 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 2.40 Southwell La Estrella is unopposable in my opinion yet again, he has learnt to just make hay on the fibresand in recent years and has come back in same form he left it in. Probably not quite upto running to his mark in handicaps these days but is still thrown into this claimer off this weight. Hindu Kush would pose most threat if returning anywhere near his best but several disappointing efforts recently and also failed to inspire on this surface in the past. La Estrella to make it 7 from 7 over this course for me! 1pt Win La Estrella 3.40 Southwell Eton Fable has more to find back in handicaps but is clearly capable on the fibresand but probably another day for a handicap win with some better treated sorts in this race. Light The City might be sent of a bigger price than perhaps he should, he won a off a basement mark of 45 in the summer at haydock, like most of the yards horses just been going through races without much threat but ran a better race last time out behind Laura Land at wolves and has proven he handles the fibresand before, one of the yards horses has to break the long losing run and he may now just be handicapped to do just that and reunited with young Sullivan after several runs without him. That said Irish Jugger will be hard to beat, didnt appear to be any fluke about him winning last time out on first try on fibresand, hampered at the beginning and then had to go up the unfavoured inside to get on top on the line but in the end was going away under a great ride from the Millman and could easily still have more to offer on the fibresand of a very lenient 3lb rise in the weights. 0.4pt win Irish Jugger 0.1pt win Light The City

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 8.30 Kempton Last race of the day catches my eye as an interesting one, looks plenty competitive enough but couple of good priced runners imo as we start to see some fresh horses coming back in anticipation of the turf season. Ocean Legend isnt fresh but is in form and was joined on the line last time out after a promising run time before, up 3lb for that effort and not won off a mark this high before but has placed off similar marks and she is consistent and is likely to give his running again round a course he loves with 4 wins round here. Poppanan is a fresh set of legs that has gone well in the past fresh and is still relatively lightly raced and potentially unexposed on the AW, yet to be seen round here but has run at lingfield too a good level to suggest he handles polytrack, 8lb higher than last win but was last seen running a good second at salisbury off a 3lb lower mark and could potentially still have more to give. Another interesting fresh set of legs is Sakhees Pearl who again is unexposed on the AW, was last seen punching well above her weight in listed event at newmarket, but prior to that was a comfortable winner over CD off just a 4lb lower mark and could easily defy that if she is ready to go after break and has gone well fresh before. 0.2pt win Ocean Legend 11/2 Coral 0.2pt win Sakhees Pearl 14/1 Bet365 0.1pt win Poppanan 16/1 pp

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 6.50 Wolverhampton Russian George is an interesting runner in this good looking handicap, he made into a useful handicapper last year in just a few races winning fresh off a 4lb lower mark than tonights mark but ran a few respectable efforts of this mark before going hurdling and again made into a very useful novice hurlder winning 3 novice hurdles and rated 129 over hurdles makes his flat mark still have a little room for error yet and could still be well handicapped and record fresh is extremely encouraging, Hanagan a strong booking and clearly should go well. James Mcauley has brought few horses over from ireland to run on the flat and there has been a bit of money about for most of them and they have all run as if the yard is about to hit form and he runs Broad Meaning tonight who looked a useful horse when winning a strong irish maiden but since not done much until last time out for new yard when stepped up dramatically in trip and on that evidence looks sure to come on the run and be capable of more over this sort of trip of what could prove a lenient mark! 0.25pt win Russian George 5/1 hills 0.25pt win Broad Meaning 6/1 hills 8.50 Wolverhampton I cannot believe the price of Blue Dog looks a massive price which is a slight worry that perhaps today isnt the day but on form she has shown she has a sound chance if ridden to do so. She landed the odds in a seller when a massive gamble took place didnt need to be anything special to land that but did do it in a good style. Was bought out of that and moved to new yard to be a brilliant second in handicap company, looking a tad awkward to go past the horse infront (who has since ran well again) blinkers on today clearly to try and get the better of that issue and a 3lb rise might not be enough for an unexposed sort. The other interesting runner is Alternative Choice who's record here sticks out like a sore thumb winning twice and finished 2nd twice, worth forgetting latest run which was over a trip 2 far but back over this trip today and just 2lb higher for latest 2nd over CD when a head second to the useful straversjoy clearly still progressing on this surface and may have more to offer yet. 0.3pt win Blue Dog 13/2 pp 0.2pt win Alternative Choice 4/1 pp

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Finally back on the net :)!! 7.10 Kempton Kingaroo is far too short based on that all his form has come on the deep fibresand surface and yet to prove on polytrack although is 3lb well in here. Landesherr is an interesting runner, coming over from Germany having won a maiden over this trip on good ground, a mark of 65 could be a very lenient one on UK debut and the market support would suggest that aswell, yard not in bad form. Sunset Place appeared to step up markedly on anything he had shown upto last time out when when only found one too good in a maiden over this trip at lingfield, handicapper also saw that as a massive improvement upping his mark by 7lb but that could still be well within reach if repeating that form back in handicap company tonight. Camera Shy caught the eye last time outwhen having first run for well over a year and half staying on late in a race not run to suit very steady pace throughought, should see a truer test tonight and gets to run off the same mark tonight and could still have more to offer. 0.1pt win Sunset Place 11/1 vc 0.2pt win Camera Shy 13/2 lads 0.2pt win Landesherr 9/2 vc

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) 4.10 Lingfield Billy Red is often sent off a big price more than likely because he comes from a unfashionable yard but he is a more than capable sort on his day and has competed in stronger races than this before. Best form has been round here and at best when able to dominate, is often the first out by several lengths and is well drawn today to do so although there are plenty of front runners in the race, is currently 1lb lower than last winning mark. Vintage made a promising return to the track on penultimate start when only 3/4length behind the very useful anne of kiev, ran off same mark next time out and ran a bit keen and found little in closing stages but with guaranteed pace in the race this could be run to suit and should be a threat of current mark. Norville is a typical Evans horse who has just gone from stength to strength winning the blue square winter series last time out in very good style showing there could easily be plenty more to come yet and a 6lb rise may not be enough with several of these behind him that day including current fav in this race Artic Lynx and just shaped as if more was to come. 0.1pt e/w Billy Red 16/1 coral 0.2pt win Norville 11/2 vc 0.1pt win Vintage 7/1 bet365

[chris34]

Re: Chris34's Flat 2010 (Inc. All-Weather Winter 10/11) Last day for this thread and will tidy up results after these ones are in as I will be moving to an easier staking plan aswell. 3.30 Southwell Dickie Le Daviour is no sure thing to follow up and looks plenty skin enough at 10/3. Kheley has been generally reliable this winter without setting the world alight and is probably worth opposing as a win bet. Bertbrand nearly got his head back in front last time out when finishing infront of Kheley whether he can confirm that is suspect due to his long losing run had slowly been improving again recently and if the blinkers have same affect this time could finally get back in front with Hanagan on board! Clear Ice is the other I am interested in who is another on a long losing run but has dropped dramatically in the weights and now finds himself 10lb lower than last winning mark and has shaped much better recently and has shaped as if a drop back in trip might be worth a try having lost 2nd on the post last time out. Has won over CD. 0.2pt win Clear Ice 5/1 bet365 0.2pt win Bertbrand 7/2 bet365 4.40 Lingfield I tipped Sunset Place last week at Kempton at a nice price, to only just fail to get up over the inform Kingaroo pulling well clear of the remainder. He remains unexposed at this sort of trip having only tried this twice once in a maiden which the handicapper took a fair view of and upped his mark and then last time out off todays mark aswell, still unexposed and clearly has a race in him. 0.3pt win Sunset Place