Football ratings system

[jtw1]

Re: Football ratings system

Thanks for your answerbut I don't undestand how you calculate 1.61? and what is the correspondence of 1.61? Thanks

1.61 is the odds that BET365 are giving for SPURS to win minus a goal of a start . By the way they just have , 2-0 :nana

[matt988]

Re: Football ratings system Ok I understand :clap so for the choice of the match, the first number will be over 3 and the second number will be over 100? it's only that? Thanks

[jtw1]

Re: Football ratings system SPURS v portsmouth 2-0 :loon MALAGA v tenerife 1-1 LIVERPOOL v sunderland 3-0 :loon SAMPDORIA v cagliari 1-1 R MADRID v ath madrid 3-2 :loon Only 3 from 5 means we have had out 1st losing week , profit-wise :( Selections = 71 Winners = 59 Profit to a 10pt win on all selections = 147.50pts ;) Both OVERS and the -1 Handicap took a hit . 2/5 on both means the running toal on Overs = +15.50pts Running total on -1 = +80.60pts Summary - Despite the loss i still think this is going the right way , Malaga were unfortunate to give away a penalty and go down to 10 men in the 85th min. While i get the sneaky suspicion that Spurs took pity on Portsmouth . Don't know if anybody else took my advice to have an acca on the Over 1.5 market as , once again , it came up trumps . So far there have been 65/71 matches that came ended Over 1.5 and this is definately one to keep an eye on , in fact there has not been a 0-0 since i've started the system so :hope I'm quietly confident that the Over 2.5 will start to pick up towards the end of the season as goals scored tends to go up at that time .

[brecki]

Re: Football ratings system Hi Guys, still waiting for the Man City game. Tomorrow I will post my last update of the selections of goonersguide as we then have exactly 100 games and exactly two month of history. One think is clear by now, the profit of these 100 games is amazing. Greetings from Germany Brecki

[Shinigami]

Re: Football ratings system my only issue with this system is that the profit yield de-escalates quite a bit as the weeks pass and as the sample sizes gets larger... it started from a 30% yield to 27% yield, and now it's shrunk to 20%.. i made a loss on my first attempt of following this system (Malaga & Sampdoria), so i hvg some reservations now:rollin

[brecki]

Re: Football ratings system Ok Ladies and Gentlemen, here comes the final update of the goonersguide selections since 1st of february covering the italian, german, english and spanish league Since my last post, we had 18 more games as there were several midweek fixtures. Now we have exactly 100 games in nearly 2 month and here are the results: match odds 68-32 winners over 2,5 we have 62-38 winners Handicap -1 on the favorite 48-42 winners (ten games were called as a draw prediction so we cant bet on a handicap win) here are the odds: match odds needed for break even: 1,4706 odds of winning selections : 1,5538 :ok over 2,5 goals needed for break even: 1,6129 odds of winning selections: 1,8585 :ok:ok Handicap -1 needed for break even: 1,8750 odds of winning selections : 2,2745 :ok:ok For information: Betting 100 Units on every game for match odds, over 2,5 and Handicap paid back a win of 4006,50 Units :clap Betting so many Units to win 100 Units on any selection (of course only if it is right) paid back a win of 6304,74 Units :nana There has been just one week with a negative result. Midweek fixtures of last week produced a massive loss but that totally disappeared after winning it all back in the weekend games. I think, this system -if you play all games that match the criteria- is a very powerful tool. The strike rate is quite impressive and the quotes especially for the handicap bets are often very good. All system parts for itsself produce a win, so in combination there has to be a win, too. It is very interesting, that we can produce nearly the same payout by just using the bets of the games with a rating of +120 and better (no away teams, no draws). In this case we just use 37 of all 100 selections and win nearly the same amount. One more thing that is important to look at: The win of a favorite and the handicap-1 win of a favorite of course depend on the success of the favorite so if he does not win the game, automatically both bets will be lost. That meens we have a big risk here and we should always keep an ey on this fact because the system can turn negative very fast if we get a longer dog session ! So let´s get ready to collect some money. I know, 100 games is not a representive history, but betting the selections with a small starting amount could bring up the starting bank fast with a low risk, that we can effort if it fails. Best regards from Germany and good luck to all of you Brecki

[jtw1]

Re: Football ratings system Great work Brecki :clap , lets hope the success rate continues until the end of the season :hope Still got the Italian and Spanish numbers to come but so far we have STUTTGART v b m'gladbach +115 , +3.00 , odds - 1.4 , Over - 1.66 , -1 = 2.2 FULHAM v wigan +126 , +3.50 , odds - 2.0 , Over - 2.21 , -1 = 3.8 EVERTON v w ham +138 , +5.38 , odds - 1.44 , Over - 1.79 , -1 = 2.3

[jtw1]

Re: Football ratings system and here's the rest - GENOA v livorno +150 , +3.38 , odds - 1.5 , Over - 1.73 , -1 = 2.6. BARCELONA v ath bilbao +201 , +4.00 , odds - 1.16 , Over - 1.47 , -1 = 1.57 VALENCIA v osasuna +103 , +4.75 , odds - 1.61 , Over - 1.97 , -1 = 2.75 santander v REAL MADRID -167 , -3.63 , odds - 1.3 , Over - 1,46 , -1 = 1.9

[jtw1]

Re: Football ratings system STUTTGART v b m'gladbach 2-1 :loon FULHAM v wigan 2-1 :loon EVERTON v w ham 2-2 GENOA v livorno 1-1 BARCELONA v ath bilbao 4-1 :loon VALENCIA v osasuna 3-0 :loon santander v REAL MADRID 0-2 :loon Goals in the 88th and 87th min respectively put paid to the clean sweep this weekend . Profit still on a slow climb - SELECTIONS = 78 WINS - 65 PROFIT to a 10pt win stake on all selections = 157.20pts :ok The Over 2.5 total climbs back up to +50.90pts after 5/7 wins. -1 Handicap total slips down to +72.80pts as only 3/7 came in. * keep an eye on the Over 1.5 market guys , thats the 4th week the acca on these has came in [72/78]

[matt988]

Re: Football ratings system Hello everybody, Can you explain me how you find 50.90 pts for over 2.5 and 72.80 pts for -1 handicap? You play 10 pts on eachs matchs? or your objectif is to win 10pts on eachs matchs? Thanks

[jtw1]

Re: Football ratings system

Hello everybody, Can you explain me how you find 50.90 pts for over 2.5 and 72.80 pts for -1 handicap? You play 10 pts on eachs matchs? or your objectif is to win 10pts on eachs matchs? Thanks

Both Over and -1 totals are after a 10pt win on each selected team . Think your looking at Brecki's post's where he has highlighted both .

[baggermatsch]

Re: Football ratings system sorry, but in the long run the system is a loser. no chance of betting this profitable. the most of the odds u bet on are not value. :\

[PAW]

Re: Football ratings system Oh. Well I guess that's the end of that then. Better luck with you next attempt jtw.

[jtw1]

Re: Football ratings system

sorry, but in the long run the system is a loser. no chance of betting this profitable. the most of the odds u bet on are not value. :\

:rollin

[matt988]

Re: Football ratings system hello, If your objective is to win 10 pts on each match I don't understand how you win 50.9 pts on over 2.5 for example!!! STUTTGART Over - 1.66 , You win so 10 pts FULHAM Over - 2.21 , You win so 10 pts EVERTON Over - 1.79 , You win so 10 pts GENOA Over - 1.73 , You lose so you have played 14 pts for win 10 pts so -14pts on this match BARCELONA Over - 1.47 , You win so 10 pts VALENCIA Over - 1.97 , You win so 10 pts REAL MADRID Over - 1,46 , You lose so you have played 22 pts for win 10 pts so -22pts on this match Total for over -2.5:10+10+10-14+10+10-22=14 pts Sorry but for these days I find that you win 14 pts and not 50.9 pts Can you explain me? Thanks

[Shinigami]

Re: Football ratings system

hello, If your objective is to win 10 pts on each match I don't understand how you win 50.9 pts on over 2.5 for example!!! STUTTGART Over - 1.66 , You win so 10 pts FULHAM Over - 2.21 , You win so 10 pts EVERTON Over - 1.79 , You win so 10 pts GENOA Over - 1.73 , You lose so you have played 14 pts for win 10 pts so -14pts on this match BARCELONA Over - 1.47 , You win so 10 pts VALENCIA Over - 1.97 , You win so 10 pts REAL MADRID Over - 1,46 , You lose so you have played 22 pts for win 10 pts so -22pts on this match Total for over -2.5:10+10+10-14+10+10-22=14 pts Sorry but for these days I find that you win 14 pts and not 50.9 pts Can you explain me? Thanks

objective isn't 10 pts. stake is 10pts and you win [(10xodds) minus 10] STUTTGART Over - 1.66 , You win so 6.6 pts FULHAM Over - 2.21 , You win so 12.1 pts EVERTON Over - 1.79 , You win so 7.9 pts GENOA Over - 1.73 , You lose so you lose the entire 10 pts for this match BARCELONA Over - 1.47 , You win so 4.7 pts VALENCIA Over - 1.97 , You win so 9.7 pts REAL MADRID Over - 1,46 , You lose so you lose entire 10 pts total is 6.6+12.1+7.9-10+4.7+9.7-10 = 21 points!

[matt988]

Re: Football ratings system OK but where is these 50.9 pts on over 2.5 for these 2 days?

[Shinigami]

Re: Football ratings system

OK but where is these 50.9 pts on over 2.5 for these 2 days?

zZz.... 50.9 isn't for these 2 days.. it's the total profits in points since the day he started posting the picks for overs through this thread til now...

[jtw1]

Re: Football ratings system Cheers Shinigami :ok Sat --- HULL v Burnley +97 , +4.00 , Odds - 1.72 , Overs - 1.9 , -1 = 3.1 VILLAREAL v sp gijon +123 , +3.50 , odds - 1.5 , Over - 1.9 , -1 = 2.4 Sun --- ROMA v atalanta +159 , +3.88 , odds - 1.33 , Over - 1.69 , -1 = 2.0 LIVERPOOL v fulham +175 , +4.13 , odds - 1.3 , Over - 1.82 , -1 = 1.83 SAMPDORIA v genoa +104 , +3.75 , odds - 2.2 , Over - 2.0 , -1 = 4.5

[matt988]

Re: Football ratings system Thanks for your answer IF 50.9pts is the result of all selections. What is the objective of the result of Brecki?

[brecki]

Re: Football ratings system Hi jtw1, as I can not write personal messages (just 33 posts) please send me your email adress to my adress [email protected] I have done some analysis about your football rating system that would interest you very much, I am sure about that. But I don´t want to publish it here. Typing all the data of the running season for Italy, Germany, Spain and England and analysing them took so much time, that´s why I won´t share my results with anyone else than you (as I got the idea of this system from you). Greetings Brecki

[onionbaj]

Re: Football ratings system Brecki, I too am inspired by this system - in fact it's been profitable for me over recent weeks. I am also building a data model to back test this theory over past seasons. I don't expect you to share your findings with me - unless you want to ;-) However, I need to derive gooner's rating system in order to build into the model - I'm wondering, have you managed to decode gooner's ratings? thanks, Onionbaj

[Bedlam]

Re: Football ratings system

Hi jtw1, as I can not write personal messages (just 33 posts) please send me your email adress to my adress [email protected] I have done some analysis about your football rating system that would interest you very much, I am sure about that. But I don´t want to publish it here. Typing all the data of the running season for Italy, Germany, Spain and England and analysing them took so much time, that´s why I won´t share my results with anyone else than you (as I got the idea of this system from you). Greetings Brecki

Up yours then Brecki! Thanks for always sharing your systems JTW, that is waht PL is all about! :clap

[jtw1]

Re: Football ratings system HULL v Burnley 1-4 VILLAREAL v sp gijon 1-0 :loon ROMA v atalanta 2-1 :loon LIVERPOOL v fulham 0-0 SAMPDORIA v genoa 1-0 :loon The first really disappointing [and costly ] week we've had since starting this. The main , straight win , system made a slight profit but the Overs and the -1 took a major hit. Selections - 83 Wins - 68 Profit - +157.50pts to a 10pt win stake Over 2.5 - Profit drops to +36.80pts -1 Handicap - Profit plummets to +22.80pts There may be one or two games from Spain mid-week , waiting for Gooners Numbers to go up.

[Hooloovoo]

Re: Football ratings system Decided to start following your system this weekend, including overs and handicaps, so i jinxed it i guess :eyes Well onwards and upwards!

[relf]

Re: Football ratings system From what I see from this system so far, I guess it's probably a blip. But anyway, apart from posting the numerical profits, would it be better to include the yield and strike rate figures as well for better reading?

[Dumyat]

[jtw1]

Re: Football ratings system Relf - Will do as soon as these 2 games are over :ok Dumyat - Nice work mate :ok 2 mid-week games for us, on Tuesday it's SP GIJON v tenerife +102 , +3.50 , odds - 1.9 , Over - 2.05 , -1 = 3.6 Weds - BARCELONA v deportivo +199 , +4.75 , odds - 1.12 , Over and -1 = 1.36

[onionbaj]

Re: Football ratings system Dumyat, how did you calculate the H and A ratings? Are these Gooner's? thanks, onionbaj

[relf]

Re: Football ratings system

In 2008-2009 EPREM season there were 25 candidates - 17 winners, returned 23.69. Sample size too low to mean much of course.

Nice work there, Dumyat. It looks like the yield is 5% in the red though. Hmm.. I guess there's not much we can do to the sample size since the criteria only produces this many selections. On first look at the results, Liverpool seems to be the club to avoid at all costs. Lol. One suggestion, how would the results look if we separate the 2 systems and look at them individually?