Grex Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Well done on a "full house", JTW :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Re: Football ratings system B MUNICH v st pauli +196 , +4.50. Win - 1.2 , Over - 1.5 , -1 = 1.57 ROMA v bari +168 , +4.75. 1.4 , 1.7 , 2.0. MALLORCA v r.santander +149 , +3.50 . 1.66 , 2.1 , 3.0. BARCELONA v r.sociedad +221 , +3.00 . 1.1 , 1.3 , 1.33. Trends from statto.com - B MUNICH [-] ST PAULI [ neutral] -3 ROMA [neutral] BARI [-] 9 MALLORCA [neutral] SANTANDER [-] 3 BARCELONA [+] SOCIEDAD [+] 2 So i would interpret those figures as ROMA and MALLORCA having the strongest chance while i'd be wary of B MUNICH considering their relatively poor season , by their standards. Even with Sociedad on a positive trend it's hard to see past Barca [ who are also on the up]. Bet 1 - 10pt Double - B MUNICH and BARCELONA to finish OVER 2.5 goals @ 1.5 and 1.3 respectively. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 10, 2010 Share Posted December 10, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Hi, JTW.... just wondering how you pick your bets... sometimes it's on the straight win, sometimes on the AH.... today on the "over" :loon. Still, as they say, variety is the spice of life :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 10, 2010 Author Share Posted December 10, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Hi' date= JTW.... just wondering how you pick your bets... sometimes it's on the straight win, sometimes on the AH.... today on the "over" :loon. Still, as they say, variety is the spice of life :ok A mixture of odds and 'strength' of the home side . For example , and maybe i should have stated this , the odds on Bayern are on the skinny side for the straight win when you consider that they are currently in 7th spot in the Bundesliga while their opponents are sitting in 14th but only 6pts behind them . Bayern have been pretty poor this season with a home record of 5-2-1 BUT they have managed to net 17 times in those 8 games . St Pauli are pretty respectable away from home , 3-0-4 , and have managed just under about 1.3 goals in those games . So imo the best bet on offer is the Over 2.5 market , esp when you consider that the Bundesliga has an 64.4% Over's record so far this season. Barcelona are so short for the straight win that , again it's their home goal scoring record that catch's the eye , 17 in 7 games , while Sociedad have netted 10 times in 7 aways . Barca don't have a great record of beating Sociedad by more than one goal in recent years , once in the past 5 corresponding fixtures , and with the opponents also on an upward trend i think it's the Over's bet that has the best opportunity to gain a maximum profit doubled with Bayern doing the same . God that was a long-winded answer !!! :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 11, 2010 Share Posted December 11, 2010 Re: Football ratings system God that was a long-winded answer !!! :lol It certainly was.... but thanks anyway :ok It's refreshing to see a system which includes an element of personal intuition, rather than just pure number-crunching (like mine!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 13, 2010 Author Share Posted December 13, 2010 Re: Football ratings system B MUNICH v st pauli 3-0 :loon ROMA v bari 1-0 :loon MALLORCA v r.santander 0-1 :@ BARCELONA v r.sociedad 4-0 :loon Bet 1 - 10pt Double - B MUNICH and BARCELONA to finish OVER 2.5 goals @ 1.5 and 1.3 respectively. :loon Bet 1 returned 19.50pts for a profit of 9.50pts which was unfortunately wiped out by my 2nd bet which was a double on ROMA and MALLORCA . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joshclem Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Re: Football ratings system hi there glad to see you have a winning system could you please tell me IVERPOOL v Portsmouth +182 , +3.83 , win 1.28 , over - 1.7 , -1 = 1.83 i read this, but what does it mean you plan to bet on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 Re: Football ratings system hi there glad to see you have a winning system could you please tell me IVERPOOL v Portsmouth +182 , +3.83 , win 1.28 , over - 1.7 , -1 = 1.83 i read this, but what does it mean you plan to bet on? Cheers and :welcome joshclem The ratings only point out which home teams they think have a better than average chance of winning , the straight win , Over 2.5 goals and -1 Handicap odds are posted purely as a reference. Personally i dont bet on odds of under 1.5 in a single win bet but usually try to find another selection which , when bet in a double , will return over double the stake . If however , as happened on Saturday , those 2 sides have proven to be be regular goal-scorers then i would consider to either have a bet on the Goals market. Past history between the 2 and an above average goal scoring record this season is what i would consider for a punt on the Handicap market . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Apologies for not posting the selections here on Friday and today :wall BLACKBURN v west ham +122 , +3.63. Win - 1.8 , Over - 1.8 , -1 = 2.87 LIVERPOOL v fulham +150 , +5.25. 1.53 , 2.1 , 2.5 NAPOLI v Lecce +173, +4.25. 1.36 REAL MADRID Sevilla +216, +4.13 1.3 , 1.36 , 1.53 Bet 1 - 10pt win BLACKBURN . 1-1 10pts lost Bet 2 - 10pts LIVERPOOL to win - postponed 10pts returned Bet 3 = 10pt double NAPOLI to win [1-0 ] and REAL to end Over 2.5 [1-0] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted December 28, 2010 Author Share Posted December 28, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Due to drink and other factors i missed MAN U v sunderland on Boxing Day :\ However on Weds we have LIVERPOOL v wolves +175, +5.63. Odds - Win = 1.33 , Over = 1.66 , -1 = 1.9. Stake 10pts on Home win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Re: Football ratings system Due to drink and other factors i missed MAN U v sunderland on Boxing Day :\ However on Weds we have LIVERPOOL v wolves +175, +5.63. Odds - Win = 1.33 , Over = 1.66 , -1 = 1.9. Stake 10pts on Home win 1- MAN U were NOT a qualifier and 2 - LIVERPOOL are muppets Today and Sundays games are - MUPPETS , sorry , LIVERPOOL v bolton +3.25 , +89 [!!] Win - 1.7 , Over - 2.0 , -1 = 2.75 ATH BILBAO v dep coruna +120 , +3.75 , 1.66 , 2.1 , 2.75. BARCELONA v levante +295 , + 5.13 . 1.06[!!] , 1.25 , -2 goal Hcap = 1.57. Although Gooners rating for L'Pool has the plus sign , they are only rated 89 and we found last season that the lower the rating the poorer the result , esp those under the 100 mark . Therefore i'm going to ignore that game altogether . BARCELONA @ 1.06 is just too ridiculously short , and they have only beaten the 1 goal handicap against Levante once in 3 meetings since 2004. 10pt double ATH BILBAO and BARCELONA Over 2.5 goals :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 3, 2011 Author Share Posted January 3, 2011 Re: Football ratings system LIVERPOOL v bolton 2-1 :unsure ATH BILBAO v dep coruna 1-2 BARCELONA v levante 2-1 10pt double ATH BILBAO and BARCELONA Over 2.5 goals :loon Just about got the right call on Liverpool who scored the winner in the 90th min !! Profit = 16.25pts Thursday - ROMA v catania +124 , +4.13. Win - 1.5 , Over - 1.87 , -1 = 2.37 Stake 10pts ROMA straight win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 6, 2011 Author Share Posted January 6, 2011 Re: Football ratings system ROMA 4-2 :loon Well it's a year since i started this and after that 1st half season i really thought i'd cracked it . Loss for 2010/11 [so far] = 63.55pts :eyes Obviously i havn't 'cracked it' but i'm still keeping :hope that maybe it's a '2nd half of the season system' and IF i end up in the black come the end of March i'll be happy . For the rest of the season i'm going to stick to straight win only bets , ie no more Over or Handicap bets . Mainly singles but doubles and trebles where the odds are very short . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 7, 2011 Author Share Posted January 7, 2011 Re: Football ratings system AC MILAN v udinese +118 , +4.0 Win - 1.44 , Over - 1.95 , -1 = 2.37 . LAZIO v lecce +149 , +5.00 . Win - 1.36 , 1,8 , 2.20 . REAL MADRID v villareal +235 , +3.63 . Win - 1.28 , 1.4 , 1.72. Simple stuff this Sunday , a 10pt treble all to win :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 9, 2011 Author Share Posted January 9, 2011 Re: Football ratings system AC MILAN v udinese 4-4 LAZIO v lecce 1-2 REAL MADRID v villareal 4-2 ;) Oh dear :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 15, 2011 Author Share Posted January 15, 2011 Re: Football ratings system VILLAREAL v osasuna +178 , +4.25. 1.5 , 1.66 , 2.75 . BARCELONA v malaga +235 , +4.00 . 1.08 , 1.22 , 1.25 lecce v AC MILAN -117 , -3.25. 1.53 , 1.97 , 2.3 Fra too short odds on the stright win for BARCELONA so i suggest a double VILLAREAL to win and BARCELONA OVER 2.5 GOALS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 17, 2011 Author Share Posted January 17, 2011 Re: Football ratings system VILLAREAL v osasuna 4-2 :loon BARCELONA v malaga 4-1 :loon lecce v AC MILAN 1-1 Fra too short odds on the stright win for BARCELONA so i suggest a double VILLAREAL to win and BARCELONA OVER 2.5 GOALS ;) Loss for this season reduced slightly to 57.35pts :( [thank gawd i din't do aways ] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 22, 2011 Author Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: Football ratings system DORTMUND +160 , +3.63 - 1.5 PALERMO +175 , +5.63 - 1.4 BARCELONA +224 , +3.13 - 1.07 VALENCIA +109 , +3.25 - 1.5 FIORENTINA +111 , +3.88 - 1.44 REAL MADRID +244 , +4.13 - 1.16 The odds on Barcelona are just getting silly now , they don't usually have too many Overs or beat the -1 handicap against Santander so i think we'd be better bypassing them today. 10pt Treble REAL MADRID / DORTMUND / PALERMO 10pt Double VALENCIA / FIORENTINA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted January 22, 2011 Share Posted January 22, 2011 Re: Football ratings system DORTMUND +160 , +3.63 - 1.5 PALERMO +175 , +5.63 - 1.4 BARCELONA +224 , +3.13 - 1.07 VALENCIA +109 , +3.25 - 1.5 FIORENTINA +111 , +3.88 - 1.44 REAL MADRID +244 , +4.13 - 1.16 The odds on Barcelona are just getting silly now , they don't usually have too many Overs or beat the -1 handicap against Santander so i think we'd be better bypassing them today. 10pt Treble REAL MADRID / DORTMUND / PALERMO 10pt Double VALENCIA / FIORENTINA Hi JTW1. Is Leverkusen (a) -109 -3.75 not a qualifier for tomorrow? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 Re: Football ratings system DORTMUND 1-1 PALERMO 1-0 BARCELONA 3-0 VALENCIA 4-3 FIORENTINA 1-1 REAL MADRID 1-0 10pt Treble REAL MADRID / DORTMUND:( / PALERMO 10pt Double VALENCIA / FIORENTINA :( Really starting to wonder whether this is really worth the effort :sad ps - LEVERKUSEN did fit the criteria davidc :ok [ although aways arn't my favs ] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Re: Football ratings system Had a quick back-check to the start of this season and i have it down as a 43.20pt LOSS so far [10pts on every selection] The problem is that last season this looked like my retirement plan , now it's just another muddling system I'm loath , however , to stop it altogether as i'm sure there is a regular , profitable system lurking beneath the surface. Maybe it's time to take into account Gooner's 'value' rating into account ? By that i mean only selecting only those teams who have the relevant numbers rating BUT also have a 100%+ rating with respect to the odds , if the numbers are a decent guide to each teams chance [ and i beliveve they are] then by betting on value odds we should make a profit [ thats the theory of value betting imo] Only 1 qualifier this weekend and it's - INTER MILAN v palermo +125 , +4.88 and with the odds @ 1.74 [pinnacle] it's a [127%] 'value' bet according to Gooner . Stake 10pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Re: Football ratings system INTER 3-2 :loon A 'stay of execution' rather than 'back on tracks' for the system . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 Re: Football ratings system SAMPDORIA v cagliari +111 , +3.13 , odds - 2.37 , value bet [161%] @ 2.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Re: Football ratings system SAMPDORIA v cagliari 0-1 :eyes For the record there are 3 games that qualify this weekend - MAN CITY +4.00 , +149 , 1.44 VILLAREAL +4.63 +209 , 1.3 VALENCIA +4.38 , +170 , 1.49 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted February 6, 2011 Author Share Posted February 6, 2011 Re: Football ratings system Tbh i've given upon this system , i've tried to make excuses and kidded myself on that it will improve as the season goes on but the crux of the matter is that it's a loss maker as it stands . Maybe there's someone out there who can see something that i can't and if thats the case please feel free to either continue the thread or start a new one but as far as i'm concerned i'm admitting defeat. Now , about the Over's market ........................:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MiGHTyDuCK Posted February 13, 2011 Share Posted February 13, 2011 Re: Football ratings system so sad ... thanks anyways JTW !!!! :notworthy:notworthy:clap:clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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