Football ratings system

[jtw1]

Re: Football ratings system Great work Brecki [and of The GOONER :clap] SPURSv blackburn 3-1 :loon B MUNICH v freiburg 2-1 :loon livorno v ROMA 3-3 !! GENOA v cagliari 5-3 :loon MAN U v fulham 3-0 :loon BARCELONA v valencia 3-0 :loon LIVERPOOL v Portsmouth 4-1 :loon Selections = 54 Wins = 46 Profit to 10pt level win stake = 129.10pts :beer A clean sweep of OVER 2.5 goals this week with a return to a 10pt stake of 49.10pts. A decent 5 out of 7 beat the -1 goal handicap for a profit of 46.50pts to a 10pt win stake on each.

[jtw1]

Re: Football ratings system SAT ---- STUTTGART v hannover +3.0 , +131 , odds - 1.44 . Over - 1.66 . -1 = 2.30 EVERTON v bolton +3.88 , +156 , odds - 1.53 . Over - 1.85 . -1 = 2.5 ARSENAL v west ham +3.0 , +167 , odds - 1.22 . Over - 1.55 . -1 = 1.72 REAL MADRID v s.gijon +4.25 , +215 , odds - 1.12 . Over - 1.3 . -1 = 1.44. ROMA v udinese +3.25 , +119 , odds - 1.75 . Over - 1.87. -1 = 3.3 SUN ----- MAN U v liverpool +4.13 , +130 , odds - 1.66 . Over - 2.1 . -1 = 2.87 BARI v parma +3.38 , +98 , odds - 2.0 . Over - 2.33 . -1 = 4.33 MALLORCA v ath madrid +3.0 , +106 , odds - 2.1 . Over - 1.85 . -1 = 4.5

[bluemoon]

Re: Football ratings system Hi jtw1! The Wigan-Burnley game don't match the criteria. The ratings are : +92 (Goonersguide) , +2.38 (H2Hstats) Good luck!

[soeyaza]

Re: Football ratings system Hi jtw1, Please explain me ML PK & DV PK in gooner's guide spreadsheet. GL

[Shinigami]

Re: Football ratings system

Hi jtw1, Please explain me ML PK & DV PK in gooner's guide spreadsheet. GL

ML PK = Most Likely Pick DV PK = Discovered Value Pick

[jtw1]

Re: Football ratings system

Hi jtw1! The Wigan-Burnley game don't match the criteria. The ratings are : +92 (Goonersguide) , +2.38 (H2Hstats) Good luck!

Took note of the h2h rating early in the week , BEFORE their rating had been adjusted after their mid-week game . Apologies and it has been rectified in the main post . Pity my bookies won't let me do the same as i've included them in one bet already :wall

[jtw1]

Re: Football ratings system STUTTGART v hannover 2-0 :loon EVERTON v bolton 2-0 :loon ARSENAL v west ham 2-0 :loon REAL MADRID v s.gijon 3-1 :loon ROMA v udinese 4-2 :loon MAN U v liverpool 2-1 :loon BARI v parma 1-1 MALLORCA v ath madrid 4-1 :loon 7/8 means that the running stats are now - SELECTIONS = 62 WINNERS = 53 Profit to a 10pt win stake = 157.30 pts :cheers Only 4 ended OVER 2.5 for a loss of 8.20pts to a 10pt win on each so the running total for OVER's = 40.90pts This was the week for the -1 Handicaps to shine with no fewer than 6 teams beating it for a weekly profit of 57.60pts and a running total of 104.10pts to a level 10pt win stake on each team.

[Bedlam]

Re: Football ratings system :clap Great stuff mate. Very impressive!

[rich46]

Re: Football ratings system At 2-1 wouldnt the United game lose on the handicap? A winner on the over though. Looks like a good system:)

[jtw1]

Re: Football ratings system

At 2-1 wouldnt the United game lose on the handicap? A winner on the over though. Looks like a good system:)

Correct mate , as i said 6 of the 8 came up . Man U and Bari were the 2 who failed to beat the H'cap. Unusual for the Spanish and Italian Leagues to have mid-week fixtures but they've thrown up a couple of games each - GENOA v palermo +106 , +3.13 , odds - 2.05 , Over - 1.76. -1 = 4.33 INTER v livorno +145 , +3.13 , odds - 1.22 , Over - 1.63 . -1 = 1.8 BARCELONA v osasuna +187 , +4.13 , Over - 1.4 . -1 = 1.44 ATH MADRID v bilbao +96 , +3.25 , Over - 1.83 . -1 = 3.5

[brecki]

Re: Football ratings system Update of the goonersguide selections since 1st of february covering the italian, german, english and spanish league match odds 57-25 winners over 2,5 we have 53-29 winners Handicap -1 on the favorite 38-36 winners (eight games were called as a draw prediction so we cant bet on a handicap win) here are the odds: match odds needed for break even: 1,4386 odds of winning selections : 1,5723 :ok over 2,5 goals needed for break even: 1,5472 odds of winning selections: 1,8825 :ok:ok:ok Handicap -1 needed for break even: 1,9474 odds of winning selections : 2,3286 :ok And again a weekend with a nice win, I love this system :D For information: Betting 100 Units on every game for match odds, over 2,5 and Handicap paid back a win of 3987,50 Units :clap Betting so many Units to win 100 Units on any selection (of course only if it is right) paid back a win of 5695,45 Units :nana Note: just betting on the selections with a rating of +120 and better produces similar results (3768,00 / 5210,86 Units).

[Hooloovoo]

Re: Football ratings system Great stuff indeed, well done and may it long continue :ok

[matt988]

Re: Football ratings system Hello everybody Do you know if it's possible to do that for under 2.5? Thanks

[blackstone]

Re: Football ratings system Hi jtw1 Could you please explain your system because I was trying to read it from start and I have no clue what u are actually comparing and taking from h2hstats and gooners guide. If you could tell from this example bellow you posted, what each number means and how you got there, which stats u used(home-away, total, league rating, h2h rating) after it passed your qualifying games. ARSENAL v west ham +3.0 , +167 , odds - 1.22 . Over - 1.55 . -1 = 1.72 Thanks

[mace]

Re: Football ratings system

Hi jtw1 Could you please explain your system because I was trying to read it from start and I have no clue what u are actually comparing and taking from h2hstats and gooners guide. If you could tell from this example bellow you posted, what each number means and how you got there, which stats u used(home-away, total, league rating, h2h rating) after it passed your qualifying games. ARSENAL v west ham +3.0 , +167 , odds - 1.22 . Over - 1.55 . -1 = 1.72 Thanks

i try explain ARSENAL v west ham ------ team name :) +3.0 , rating in h2h +167 , rating in gooners odds - 1.22 . odd for arsenal Over - 1.55 . odd for over 2,5 -1 = 1.72 odd for handicap -1 sorry for my english ;/

[blackstone]

Re: Football ratings system hi mace thanks for your explanation, but where do you see this +3.0 rating in h2h because when i click on h2h stats for some other teams now, i see all the data for ratings only for last 4 games home and away, all home and away and all games. bellow i see head to head stats previous meetings, but there is only wins draws and looses without any rating. also i wonder, what is the minimum gooner rating for you to back home win to win, because in top examples we see they range from 90 to 180 while head to head are all over 3. And still if the calculations or picks you choosen are they still good enough for the odds being offered, how did you calculate that for overs and handicap. thanks

[mace]

Re: Football ratings system

hi mace thanks for your explanation, but where do you see this +3.0 rating in h2h because when i click on h2h stats for some other teams now, i see all the data for ratings only for last 4 games home and away, all home and away and all games. bellow i see head to head stats previous meetings, but there is only wins draws and looses without any rating. also i wonder, what is the minimum gooner rating for you to back home win to win, because in top examples we see they range from 90 to 180 while head to head are all over 3. And still if the calculations or picks you choosen are they still good enough for the odds being offered, how did you calculate that for overs and handicap. thanks

for example select date and you can see it on first page match on 28 march 4,13 is over than 3 so 3+

Pri

28/03 2100

Sch

Real Madrid

?-?

Ath.Madrid

4.13

[blackstone]

Re: Football ratings system thanks mace i see it now how about this gooners ratings, is there any stats that are similiar at h2h but for other leagues as well.

[Shinigami]

Re: Football ratings system

also i wonder, what is the minimum gooner rating for you to back home win to win, because in top examples we see they range from 90 to 180 while head to head are all over 3. And still if the calculations or picks you choosen are they still good enough for the odds being offered, how did you calculate that for overs and handicap. thanks

gooner ratings in general should be 100 and above, but as long as it shows a "+" (for home win) or "-" (for away win) on the ML PK column, jtw1 will shortlist it against the H2Hstats rating. as for overs and handicap, there's no actual methodology for it. What jtw1 is doing now, is to record the strike rates for these categories, and it's up to u to decide if it's worth staking.

[Shinigami]

Re: Football ratings system

thanks mace i see it now how about this gooners ratings, is there any stats that are similiar at h2h but for other leagues as well.

if u can't find the league u want, u can put up a request to the webmaster of H2Hstats on its forum page.

[blackstone]

Re: Football ratings system hej Shinigami jtw1 will shortlist it against the H2Hstats rating. could you explain what do you mean by that shortlisting it against the h2hstats ratings? you mean the comparison of ml pk rating at gooners to h2hstats table rating, thats the only one i found that is telling us the power rating of certain teams in league. about the leagues i was thinking to test the others gooner doesn't cover but just wondering if you have any sort of match rating like ml pk at h2hstats?

[Shinigami]

Re: Football ratings system

hej Shinigami jtw1 will shortlist it against the H2Hstats rating. could you explain what do you mean by that shortlisting it against the h2hstats ratings?

it means, if a MLPK shows "+" for home win, but H2Hstats does not show a rating of at least 3.00 , it's rejected. Both criteria must be satisfied.

about the leagues i was thinking to test the others gooner doesn't cover but just wondering if you have any sort of match rating like ml pk at h2hstats?

No.

[blackstone]

Re: Football ratings system okay thanks m8, do you maybe know how does gooner get to that ml pk numbers ? because there is like only 6 picks in 3 days, and there is so many football matches around to bet on :rollin

[Shinigami]

Re: Football ratings system

okay thanks m8, do you maybe know how does gooner get to that ml pk numbers ?

There are three figures shown : H (Home Team), A (Away Team) and M (Margin between the sides) According to gooner, originally, 11 years ago (or 11 seasons ago) all sides started off with 1000 point ratings each, for each game played they are awarded points based on their level of performance, and after a year or so the ratings could be used to project potential results. The home and away ratings are compared and the difference is the M(argin). A margin of 100 points is to be interpreted as an "average" result of 1 goal difference. In the case of Tottenham v Portsmouth = the Margin is +151 points or 1.51 goal winning margin. That's a strong home win signal.

[blackstone]

Re: Football ratings system ic thanks for that explanation shinigami, i checked the criteria and only tottenham and liverpool matches qualify from those picks at gooners and h2h. however the odds bookie offer and the brecki update on gooners guide selection for past 30 days of picks on page 2 of this thread tells us about the odds to break even. from odds offered by bookies online at this moment, they are all lower than that criteria, except over 2.5 goals. handicap -1 and home win odds are too low. We can also see from handicap the strike rate is slightly higher than 50%. The only market that currently offers okay odds was over 2.5 that was bigger than break even percentage from past 30 days that bookies online offer and for home matches its also way lower like 1.20-1.30. thats stats from brecki: match odds 57-25 winners over 2,5 we have 53-29 winners Handicap -1 on the favorite 38-36 winners Do you simply bet on all of them or you just pick the best one? I also seen he is betting accumulator maybe thats the trick to pass by bad odds on handicaps or low home win odds. What do you think

[jtw1]

Re: Football ratings system Many thanks to Mace and Shinigami for explaining the workings of the system to Blackstone , hope you've got a better picture of how it works mate :ok A couple of points , firstly i started the system up as a straight win only system , but after noticing that many of the games were beating the Over's and -1 Handicaps i'm now keeping track of those bets involving the selected teams and overall there are both looking good . I have started to post these odds as i know there are many punters out there who don't like backing at very shorts odds so this gives us a way to enhance our returns [ if lucky enough !! ] What i'm trying to say is that it's entirely up to the individual as to what bets /odds they find most appealing , i can only point out whats out there , it's up to you to use them as best you can. In answer to your question about accumulators , yes i do think we can use them to our benefit as long as the strike-rate remains high enough and not too many teams are included , i hold back at anything above a treble with the exception of the past 2 weekends where i have been successful with some 6 team acca's betting on OVER 1.5 goals . antway here's the results of the mid-week match's - GENOA v palermo 2-2 :@ INTER v livorno 3-0 :loon BARCELONA v osasuna 2-0 :loon ATH MADRID v bilbao 2-0 :loon Pity Genoa let the side down :( Selections - 66 Wins - 56 Profit to a 10pt win stake on all selections = 159.20pts A loss for the OVERS brings the running total for a 10pt win on each to +34.50pts The -1 Handicap bets , however, are showing the way with 3/4 and a running total of 95pts Waiting for Gooner to post his ratings for Serie A and the Primera Liga

[jtw1]

Re: Football ratings system SAT ---- SPURS v portsmouth +3.13 , +151 , odds - 1.2 , Over - 1.55 , -1 = 1.61 MALAGA v tenerife +3.50 , +99 , odds - 1.83 , Over - 2.05 , -1 = 3.5 SUN ---- LIVERPOOL v sunderland +3.88 , +185 , odds - 1.33 , Over - 1.8 , -1 =1.95 SAMPDORIA v cagliari +6.25 , +126 , odds - 1.61 , Over - 1.92 , -1 = 3.0 R MADRID v ath madrid +4.13 , +169 , odds - 1.3 , Over - 1.4 , -1 = 1.9

[matt988]

Re: Football ratings system hello everybody Can you explain me your calculation? For example: SPURS v portsmouth +3.13 , +151 , odds - 1.2 , Over - 1.55 , -1 = 1.61 Why 1.61? What is the correspondence of this result? Where do you takes these odds? odds - 1.2 , Over - 1.55 , -1 Thanks

[jtw1]

Re: Football ratings system I use BET 365 in the majority of bets as i find they offer by far and away the best Football odds esp Handicaps . The -1 means Spurs are minus a goal at the start of the match and have to win by 2 clear goals for us to collect . Hope that's what you were getting at Matt , if not get back to me :ok

[matt988]

Re: Football ratings system Thanks for your answerbut I don't undestand how you calculate 1.61? and what is the correspondence of 1.61? Thanks