Tennis - Australian Open

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open fantastic picks arantxa!well done!!:nana

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open Already taken Monaco over Llodra. Adding, Granollers over Falla @ 5/6 Even though Soderling looked injured, Granollers played well to come from 2-0 down. Strong in the rallies and will be able to stick with Falla no trouble I think. Falla beat Daniel but he is not a HC player. Maybe a 4 or 5 setter but fancy Granollers to come through. Kubot to beat Giraldo @ 8/11 Reasonable price I think. Surely a better HC player than Giraldo in my view. He's pushed numerous top players like Wawrinka and Cilic in recent months. Also beat Roddick last year. 1/4 final in Doha and a striaght sets win over Zverez indicates some good form. Giraldo smashed Robredo in the first round, big shock. Got alot of fight in him, pretty consistent player. But Kubot is different match-up again. Think he comes through. Barrois/Stosur over 19.5 games @ 4/5 Worth a small punt here. Barrois can be a tricky player but mainly Stosur is not near her best here. Struggled in round one against a young Chinese girl outside the top 100, and has lost numerous matches already this year. Think she comes through but hopefully beats the line here.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open Juan Monaco (vs Llodra) x Albert Montanes (vs Robert): Double at 2.40 Monaco proved that he's in good form and likes these courts when disposing of Gulbis, who is a far superior player to Llodra, in straight sets. His serve is only downfall but he spars well and has lovely groundstrokes. Llodra defeated Martin Vassallo Arguello in straight sets too, but the Argentine is notoriously poor on a hard court and Llodra didn't have to do much. The Frenchman is a better doubles player these days and could be a bit one-dimensional. As for Montanes, he seems to be playing really well on these plexicushion courts and he is in plenty of form. I don't know a great deal about Robert and although he beat Starace, the Italian is terrible on a hard court. Montanes has consistent groundstrokes and will see this as a good chance to get to the third round of a slam. They've met once before, on clay, with Montanes winning in straight sets. Bet strength: 3pts Nicolas Almagro vs Benjamin Becker: Almagro at 1.80 Almagro came through a huge five-setter with Xavier Malisse in R1 and that'll have sharpened up his fitness. He is technically a far superior player to Becker, who does well to beat players ranked below him but struggles against top players. I'm surprised to see the Spaniard priced the way he is, I had him at around 1.60, so I'm happy to take him at these odds to defeat the German. Bet strength: 2pts Michael Berrer vs Denis Istomin: Istomin at 2.40 Both players had good results in the previous rounds but it was Istomin's that stood out. He absolutely trolleyed world no.30 Jeremy Chardy. The Uzbek has a big serve and spanks the ball, a bit similar to Berrer, who relies on serving well. He was barely tested by a woeful Kristof Vliegen. I again think these two should be priced a little more fairly and I'm happy to risk a small stake on Istomin taking it. Bet strength: 1pt Marcos Baghdatis vs David Ferrer: Ferrer at 2.19 This is a mouth-watering prospect. Baghdatis is loved in Australia and has a big Cypriot following. He's also in form. However, he meets his biggest challenge of the year so far in Ferrer. The Spaniard has made the semis here before and is a fighter - he will not let any point go by easily. I can see this match going the distance and in the afternoon Melbourne sun, Ferrer will have the fitness edge (have you seen Baggy recently? He's a big lad). Ferrer's also won the two matches they've played, both on a hard court, and as a Davis Cup veteran, he won't be fazed by the crowd. Should be a good 'un and I'm happy to risk a small stake on the Spaniard. Bet strength: 1pt I also considered Janko Tipsarevic, Lukasz Kubot and Marcel Granollers, but they are tight matches and could go either way. Good luck! Atko

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open bets for the day: 1) granollers to beat falla at 5-6 with paddypower i really fancy granollers here. he's developed into a pretty solid performer at the grandslams. at wimbledon last year he beat andreas beck before pushing soderling all the way in the second round(a match i saw) and he beat zverev in the us open before retiring to robin again! falla is a journeyman who has plenty of fight in him but i just think granollers the younger man has more talent and he seems like a very confident determined chap and he won't be afraid of winning this one.2pts 2)marcos bagdatis to beat david ferrer at 8-11. this match should be a close one and could be a cracker. i just feel bagdatis has that glint in his eye and self belief at the moment and will be very hard to beat. david ferrer's career has went backwards a bit over the last few seasons......i still think he's a great match player and a true fighter and is never easy to beat. yet, his game is still a bit one-dimensional and bagdatis is a clever enough player with lots of variety to expose this. ferrer has a 2-0 record which can't be ignored of course but marcos is so rarely in form that i don't think it's as an important an issue as it is with other match-ups. this bet is just a hunch really based on my faith in marcos bagdathis the man as much as in marcos bagdatis the player! 1pt

[Arantxa]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open Hi folks, after a fantastic night yesterday i have quiet a bit in tonight as well. No time to explain every pick into detail, but had my thoughts over the day and jumped onto the handicap lines at pinnacle as soon as they were out. Impossible to post actual prices as they change every 2 minutes, but i will post the prices as i got them, no matter if they are higher, equal or lower than the actual. Think it will level up anyway.... All odds from pinnacle.... ATP Match bets: Baghdatis tb. Ferrer @1,80 5/10 Going against Ferrer here is not easy but his form is nothing special at the moment, whereas Baghdatis looks good in "his" slam. Will surely be supported by his partisan crowd again and with his solid strokes and good serving he should avoid too much of the 35+ strokes rallies, which is the only plus one can see with Ferrer.... Almagro tb. Becker @1,769 7/10 Almagro is the better tennis player no doubt and also has a decent serve to boot, so he should have no problem with an average becker. I think Almagro´s price is so high, because he lost badly to Gicquel, but i saw this match and he gave 10% at best, just wanting some 1st round price money and a good hit heading for the aussie open. This is real business here.... Haas tb. Tipsarevic @1,855 3/10 Maybe one to avoid, but taking small stakes here as i see a bit of value in the german who is superior slam player... Falla tb. Granollers Puyol @2,10 6,5/10 Hmm what would this prices have been, if they played first round? Söderling beat himself and Falla impressed me with his quallies form late last year. Has more hardcourt pedigree for me and except a mentaly ill Söderling, Granollers hasn´t beaten anybody of note on hard.... Koubek tb. Dodig @1,80 3/10 Both of them could only dream of such an opponent heading into a second roud of a slam, but i think Koubek can wear Dodig down with his dritballer style he has the fitness advantage also and Dodig is no sort of a talent at 25 years of age... Berrer tb. Istomin @1,704 6/10 Well its time to trust Berrer finally who has a great run, serving well and no sign of a letdown yet.... Robert tb. Montanes @2,26 3/10 Will side with the hard surface player here. Montanes the slightly better player overall and Robert with fine hard results late. Hard to split what should be 50/50 a classic. Handicaps and WTA: As nothing sticks out to me matchwise with the WTA i have done a few handicaps. Just a one sentence each, as this is getting long.... S. Williams -6,5 Games tb.Kvitova @1,916 5/10 Williams has a habit of destroying her opponents and withn her fitness a little bit dodgy she will look to shorten this as much as possible... Lisicki -6 Games tb. Brianti @1,847 6/10 Lisicki with much more firepower, can see a 6-1 or 6-0 set, this should be easily through... Barrois -Stosur over 19,5 Games @1,926 5/10 Has already been discussed, Stosur not in good form, Barrois likes the big stage, this will be close, probably 3 sets with Stosur edging it in the end.. Benesova +5 Games tb. Zvonereva @2,12 4/10 Lot of work for Vera here i think, Benesova is decent serving and should keep it close enough... Goerges+6,5 Games tb. Wozniacki @1,877 7/10 I like Goerges style of play a lot, she is talented i think and 6,5 games is a lot of wood.... Peer - 5 Games tb. Pironkova @1,877 6/10 Same as yesterday, Pironkova a bit togher nut to crack, but still its ladies tennis and she could as well fall apart if she loses the first set. Maybe a 7-5 6-1 or 6-4 6-1.... Arvidson+ 5 Games tb.Hantuchova @1,943 10/10 Max stake for me here, Hantuchova is bad at the moment, serving not like it is her standard, Arvidson digs deep and this could as well be major upset here, but i like the safer bets and a high strike rate, so this is the way to go for me... Radwanka -5,5 Games tb. Kudryavtseva @1,84 7/10 Radwanska can be ruthless at times and she has the stable game to just edge every game. See a hard blow for the russian girl here... Bammer + 6 Games tb. V. Williams @2 3/10 Bammer is a fighter and will enjoy the athmosphere and i think she will grind out 7 Games... low stakes, as it is against the Williams clan though... and a few from the ATP: Chiudinelli +8 Games tb. Djokovic @1,775 8/10 Lot of wood again, Djoko not in the best form and early in the slams he often likes to just edge it with minimum effort.... Hewitt -7,5 Games tb. Young @1,87 6/10 Hewitt makes short process of his opponents if they have no weapon to hurt him and that is exactely how i see Young, no weapons, just a worse Hewitt... Hajek +7,5 Games tb. Youzhny @1,962 6/10 Hajek is serving decent enough to stay in this and Youzhny, although he made a fine game versus Gasquet, is well capable of a letdown in one set, which will be enough i think... Tsonga -6,5 Games tb. Dent @1,794 4/10 Both are serving well normally, but i can see Dent backing down in one set, if a break down and this should be enough... eg. 7-5 6-7 6-2 6-4 Tsonga... Sergeyev +8,5 Games tb. Verdasco @2 5/10 Surely Verdasco is the better player here, but Sergeyev is very match fit and served pretty well until this stage. Verdasco found it hard enough to break and one dimensional Carsten Ball, so this will be close enough i think... Kubot - Giraldo OVER 39,5 Games @1,885 6/10 This has a thriller written all over it, Match odds are right with Kubot a slight favourite, but Giraldo took out a slam consistent Robredo impressingly so tight 4 or 5 sets for me... Lot of wood from me :eek:loon:eek too but :hope it won´t be my worst day in history.... Good luck and good games:cheers MfG Arantxa

[Arantxa]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open Forgot those 2 matches... Monfils tb. Isner @1,521 10/10 Horror matchup for John Isner. Good returner and one of the best counter players in the world, will get plenty of balls back and absolutely spank him from the back of the court. If Isner is not serving 97% of first serves, he will have no chance here..... Karlovic tb. Ljubicic @1,80 5/10 If Karlovic is starting to win sets with 6-3 or 6-4 scoreline you know that you can easiliy back him. Broke Stepanek a few times so will take care of Ljubo in 4 i think...

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open good work aranxta! i agrre with you on most of those bets! here are the rest of my bets: 1) stephanie voegele plus 7.5 games against azareanka 8-11 bet365 obviously azarenka has a fierce reputation for hammering lesser opponents in early rounds of grand slams and it's well-earned.but voegele is a talented determined youngster who battled to a great victory over melinda czink who is no slouchas henin could vouch for.i think she can provide azarenka with a decent test and 7.5 games is too much of a handicap in my opinion.2pts 2)kristina barrois plus 5.5 games against stosur at 8-11 bet365. i also think the over 19 games is a good bet. barrois is a tricky opponent and a good fighter and stosur is hardly firing on all cylinders at the moment 2pts 3)radwanska versus kudraytseva over 19.5 games at evens bet365. i also like the 5.5 handicap bet on alla. i saw her against oudin and she came back from the dead. she was 2-6,3-5 15-40 down and won 7-5 in the fifth.and the thing is oudin didnt do a whole lot wrong.she didnt choke.alla just stepped it up and played great and served great.she is much more consistent from the back of the court now and can definately compete with anyone stroke for stroke. radwanska is a bit over-rated anyway i think.just hope alla can rediscover her form and isnt too nervous(she's struggled with this in the past)1pt might even be a shock!! 4)lisicki minus 5.5 games against brianti 4-5 bet365 brianti is average and lisicki is hungry and hitting the ball well and 5.5 games isn't really that big a handicap in the womens game when there is such a gulf in class. 5)ferrer versus bagdathis over 38.5 games bet365 at 5-6 ferrer is just going to be solid and not give away free points. while marcos is going to have his periods of inspiration and his usual dips.i expect 4 sets could cover this.1pt 6)sergeyev versus verdasco plus 9.5 games 4-6 bet365 sergeyev qualified impressively and backed it up while beating dudi sela. he appears to have a good serve while returning isn't fernandos strength(though hardly a weakness). it's a massive handicap and even though the over 28 games night be better bet as fernando could lose a tie-break but win the next set 6-0 i'm gonna take a punt on the handicap 1pt 7)serena williams versus kvitova over 17.5 at 8-11 kvitova beat safina at the us open last year and almost beat wickmayer to qualify for the quarters of d us. she has patches of woeful form but the fact she beat craybas in straights is encouraging. she's a lefty with powerful strokes and she's capable of winning games on her terms (all too often inferior players let serena bully them) and i think she can be competitive in at least one set) 2pts 8)chuidinelli plus 8.5 versus djokovic this is 8-11 by the way. maybe the over 28 games is a better bet. but novak isn't firing on all cylinders and marco is a battler who never gives up and i think he can cover it. he also can play(beat youzny in us open last year and gave davydenko a good match. 1pt 9) venus williams versus bammer under 18.5 games at 5-6 venus hammered safarova in round one which is an ominous sign for bammer i think. bammer was lucky to get an easy first round draw and i dont think she's in great form at the moment. i like her as a player she is smart with good court savy and a fighter but she saves her best tennis for the summer. the last 3 years she has been on the end of some hammerings in the aussie open. she has two kids and she's gettin on so she cant be in the best form always. i see venus overwhelming her with her powerplay and an easy victory in under 19 games. 1pt 10)davydenkp versus marchenko under 27.5 games at evens bet365 davydenko is just in awesome form right now and i see a similar scoreline against rising star marchenko as the one against kindlamnn who didnt even play poorly 1pt 11) carla suarez navarro to beat petkovic at evens with paddypowers petkovic has a lot of talent and is one for the future but she's still unproven at this level and i'm going to go with the proven grand slam performer carla. a quarterfinalist last year here(beating venus on the way) and a quarterfinalist at the french(and she is still improving.she has a big match temperment and there are still question marks over petkovic who lost to kerber in the first round of the last grand slam the us open.1pt 12) hantuchova versus arvidson over 19.5 games at 5-6 powers arvidsson is playing very solid and had a good win over the erratic jarmila groth.i can see her make this one competitive....it might even go to 3 sets but i think hantu will win and she might even win a set 6-1 or 6-2. 1pt 13) almagro versus becker over 38.5 games at 5-6 bet365 i think almagro will win this by the way but he never makes it easy for himself. his last 4 first and second round matches at slam have all went 2 five sets(a lot of marathons he beat monaco 8-6 and beck 9-7 in the final set at wimby and he beat mallise 8-6 in 5th two days ago.so he has developed a love for the battle and steelness he a few years ago.he can be up and down though and becker has his hot streaks and is at least good for a set and i;m sure there'll be a tiebreaker also. 1pt

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open oh and finally i also think local girl casey dellacqua can rediscover the magic of her run two years ago and defeat karolina sprem. casey is very aggresive and has a particularly powerful lefty forehand which can do alot of damage when she's on form. she's very inconsistent though, tends to make a lot of unforced errors due to over aggression and she's quite slow around the court. but she can fairly wallop that ball and maybe play the big points on her terms and she'll thrive in the atmosphere of home support in a night match at melbourne. sprem has nothing in the main draw of a slam for donkeys years. i found her easy win against medina garrigues quite puzzling...maybe she's rediscovered the form that got her to wimbledon quarters a few years ago.but i have a feeling medina just had one of those days. anyone see that match?? i think casey can rise to the occasion, ride the rollercoaster and ultimately play the bigger points better in a three setter! 1pt dellaqua at 5-4 with powers. i also have a feeling about giraldo. and i'm going to tip a li na-shahar peer double at 4-6 with paddypowers.2pts shvedova should win 2 at 4-9. good luck all.hope its a great day1

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open sorry and there's value in carla suarez navarro to lose the first set but win the match at 11-2. she can be a slow starter

[Arantxa]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open

good work aranxta! i agrre with you on most of those bets! here are the rest of my bets: 1) stephanie voegele plus 7.5 games against azareanka 8-11 bet365 obviously azarenka has a fierce reputation for hammering lesser opponents in early rounds of grand slams and it's well-earned.but voegele is a talented determined youngster who battled to a great victory over melinda czink who is no slouchas henin could vouch for.i think she can provide azarenka with a decent test and 7.5 games is too much of a handicap in my opinion.2pts 2)kristina barrois plus 5.5 games against stosur at 8-11 bet365. i also think the over 19 games is a good bet. barrois is a tricky opponent and a good fighter and stosur is hardly firing on all cylinders at the moment 2pts 3)radwanska versus kudraytseva over 19.5 games at evens bet365. i also like the 5.5 handicap bet on alla. i saw her against oudin and she came back from the dead. she was 2-6,3-5 15-40 down and won 7-5 in the fifth.and the thing is oudin didnt do a whole lot wrong.she didnt choke.alla just stepped it up and played great and served great.she is much more consistent from the back of the court now and can definately compete with anyone stroke for stroke. radwanska is a bit over-rated anyway i think.just hope alla can rediscover her form and isnt too nervous(she's struggled with this in the past)1pt might even be a shock!! 4)lisicki minus 5.5 games against brianti 4-5 bet365 brianti is average and lisicki is hungry and hitting the ball well and 5.5 games isn't really that big a handicap in the womens game when there is such a gulf in class. 5)ferrer versus bagdathis over 38.5 games bet365 at 5-6 ferrer is just going to be solid and not give away free points. while marcos is going to have his periods of inspiration and his usual dips.i expect 4 sets could cover this.1pt 6)sergeyev versus verdasco plus 9.5 games 4-6 bet365 sergeyev qualified impressively and backed it up while beating dudi sela. he appears to have a good serve while returning isn't fernandos strength(though hardly a weakness). it's a massive handicap and even though the over 28 games night be better bet as fernando could lose a tie-break but win the next set 6-0 i'm gonna take a punt on the handicap 1pt 7)serena williams versus kvitova over 17.5 at 8-11 kvitova beat safina at the us open last year and almost beat wickmayer to qualify for the quarters of d us. she has patches of woeful form but the fact she beat craybas in straights is encouraging. she's a lefty with powerful strokes and she's capable of winning games on her terms (all too often inferior players let serena bully them) and i think she can be competitive in at least one set) 2pts 8)chuidinelli plus 8.5 versus djokovic this is 8-11 by the way. maybe the over 28 games is a better bet. but novak isn't firing on all cylinders and marco is a battler who never gives up and i think he can cover it. he also can play(beat youzny in us open last year and gave davydenko a good match. 1pt 9) venus williams versus bammer under 18.5 games at 5-6 venus hammered safarova in round one which is an ominous sign for bammer i think. bammer was lucky to get an easy first round draw and i dont think she's in great form at the moment. i like her as a player she is smart with good court savy and a fighter but she saves her best tennis for the summer. the last 3 years she has been on the end of some hammerings in the aussie open. she has two kids and she's gettin on so she cant be in the best form always. i see venus overwhelming her with her powerplay and an easy victory in under 19 games. 1pt 10)davydenkp versus marchenko under 27.5 games at evens bet365 davydenko is just in awesome form right now and i see a similar scoreline against rising star marchenko as the one against kindlamnn who didnt even play poorly 1pt 11) carla suarez navarro to beat petkovic at evens with paddypowers petkovic has a lot of talent and is one for the future but she's still unproven at this level and i'm going to go with the proven grand slam performer carla. a quarterfinalist last year here(beating venus on the way) and a quarterfinalist at the french(and she is still improving.she has a big match temperment and there are still question marks over petkovic who lost to kerber in the first round of the last grand slam the us open.1pt 12) hantuchova versus arvidson over 19.5 games at 5-6 powers arvidsson is playing very solid and had a good win over the erratic jarmila groth.i can see her make this one competitive....it might even go to 3 sets but i think hantu will win and she might even win a set 6-1 or 6-2. 1pt 13) almagro versus becker over 38.5 games at 5-6 bet365 i think almagro will win this by the way but he never makes it easy for himself. his last 4 first and second round matches at slam have all went 2 five sets(a lot of marathons he beat monaco 8-6 and beck 9-7 in the final set at wimby and he beat mallise 8-6 in 5th two days ago.so he has developed a love for the battle and steelness he a few years ago.he can be up and down though and becker has his hot streaks and is at least good for a set and i;m sure there'll be a tiebreaker also. 1pt

Looks like bet365 have better handicaps sometimes, have to look at those next time.... Have one question regarding the Over Games market: Say you have an outsider who you think could stay in the match, but not win it, maybe like barrois or arvidson If you have some kind of handicap on the outsider like +5 Games or Over 19,5 Games, which one do you normally get on?? Do you evaluate match per match or do you have a rule to go by?? The difference is obvious, if one set goes to 5-5 the over is normally no problem, with a more balanced scoreline like 6-3 6-3 the handicap is better. I often stick with the handicap, because i saw me going for over and then the outsider wins 6-3 6-2 with Under Score... Anybody is invited to share his/her view regarding this topic.... Good luck with your bets....:drums MfG Arantxa

[marron]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open Juan Monaco vs Michael Llodra Going with Monaco to win here too at 1.4 with Paddy Power. Monaco beat Llodra when they played on the hard court last time and the courts being slower will help his game. Neither have a great record overall on the hard courts but the Argentine is improving all the time on this surface and if he continues to play and battle the way he has been i cant see anything other than him progressing to the next round.

[kevshat]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open 4pts M.Baghdatis vs D.Ferrer - Over 38.5 games 4/5 Bet365 This looks like a line a touch on the short side. Baggy loves it in Australia and has been to the final here before. Ferrer's no mug here either and both of them fight hard on the court. I'd expect this to be an entertaining match which looks booked in for 4 sets if not 5. Neither player have what I would call a dominant serve but equally both are capable of holding onto their serves so I think this will be fairly close in the sets. 4 sets should bring this in as I'd expect a breaker if not two and as I say, generally close sets. These players look evenly matched to me with Baggy's form coming in compared to Ferrer's never say die attitude and marginal better quality so it looks like being a long match. It all points to going over this line for me.

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open good question aranxta!honestly it depends on each match! for example against a player like safina or dementieva i normally back the overs market because both these players can start slowly and struggle for a while particularly safina but when they get their games going they are so capable of winning a set 6-0 or 6-1! the player you backed in a handicap might even have won a set and still lost the handicap.it's only backfired on me once and that was when razzano bet safina 6-4 6-4 last year. also, with regards the unders and davydenko 27.5 games is a little like having an extra game over the 9.5 handicap. for example a scoreline like 6-4,6-2,6-3 wins the unders bet but loses the 9.5 handicap bet.....but as you say i would be taking a chance that no set would go to 5 all. it just depends on the player....with handicap bets you'd want to pick a player with good mental strength that u know wont drop the head if he goes a set down! actually,its funny the overs bet did backfire on me yesterday!i went for over 34.5 in the korolev game because i really thought he'd give berdych trouble.....it turns out he wins easy. we all makee mistakes.....its certainly no exact science this tennis betting! good luck anyway....you're putting up some great tips!

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open Time to take an insurance bet on Baghdatis. Ferrer is struggling so price of 2.10 needs snapped. Will make sure there is no loss. What a match!

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open

Monaco over Llodra Granollers over Falla @ 5/6 Kubot to beat Giraldo @ 8/11 Barrois/Stosur over 19.5 games @ 4/5

3WIN 1LOSS.....finally a good night. Took Haas in-play aswell. Far better player than Tipsarevic, needed to see what shape he was in though.

[Maroon Heaven]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open See some value for casey dellacqua against Sperm.... She was injured for much of last year (10 months), but her form before then was poor. On her day she is a good powerful hitter and top 50 player. She's out tonight to prove a few points tonight in the main game on the Rod Laver, none more so then the Australian Davis cup team. She beat a better openent in Yakimova last round in three. I've taken some of the 2.6 on her with a view to trading on the match

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open

Juan Monaco (vs Llodra) x Albert Montanes (vs Robert): Double at 2.40 Monaco proved that he's in good form and likes these courts when disposing of Gulbis, who is a far superior player to Llodra, in straight sets. His serve is only downfall but he spars well and has lovely groundstrokes. Llodra defeated Martin Vassallo Arguello in straight sets too, but the Argentine is notoriously poor on a hard court and Llodra didn't have to do much. The Frenchman is a better doubles player these days and could be a bit one-dimensional. As for Montanes, he seems to be playing really well on these plexicushion courts and he is in plenty of form. I don't know a great deal about Robert and although he beat Starace, the Italian is terrible on a hard court. Montanes has consistent groundstrokes and will see this as a good chance to get to the third round of a slam. They've met once before, on clay, with Montanes winning in straight sets. Bet strength: 3pts Nicolas Almagro vs Benjamin Becker: Almagro at 1.80 Almagro came through a huge five-setter with Xavier Malisse in R1 and that'll have sharpened up his fitness. He is technically a far superior player to Becker, who does well to beat players ranked below him but struggles against top players. I'm surprised to see the Spaniard priced the way he is, I had him at around 1.60, so I'm happy to take him at these odds to defeat the German. Bet strength: 2pts Michael Berrer vs Denis Istomin: Istomin at 2.40 Both players had good results in the previous rounds but it was Istomin's that stood out. He absolutely trolleyed world no.30 Jeremy Chardy. The Uzbek has a big serve and spanks the ball, a bit similar to Berrer, who relies on serving well. He was barely tested by a woeful Kristof Vliegen. I again think these two should be priced a little more fairly and I'm happy to risk a small stake on Istomin taking it. Bet strength: 1pt Marcos Baghdatis vs David Ferrer: Ferrer at 2.19 This is a mouth-watering prospect. Baghdatis is loved in Australia and has a big Cypriot following. He's also in form. However, he meets his biggest challenge of the year so far in Ferrer. The Spaniard has made the semis here before and is a fighter - he will not let any point go by easily. I can see this match going the distance and in the afternoon Melbourne sun, Ferrer will have the fitness edge (have you seen Baggy recently? He's a big lad). Ferrer's also won the two matches they've played, both on a hard court, and as a Davis Cup veteran, he won't be fazed by the crowd. Should be a good 'un and I'm happy to risk a small stake on the Spaniard. Bet strength: 1pt I also considered Janko Tipsarevic, Lukasz Kubot and Marcel Granollers, but they are tight matches and could go either way. Good luck! Atko

Time to take an insurance bet on Baghdatis. Ferrer is struggling so price of 2.10 needs snapped. Will make sure there is no loss. What a match!

Finally, no losses. Last nights wins gleaned a tasty 7.4 point profit which makes the last couple of nights bearable. Paid off to back Baghdatis in running, which ensured a very small profit no matter what. Istomin did very well to see off Berrer in straight sets, while Almagro did his customary five-set trick against Becker! As for the double...! Two superb comebacks from both players. They won't get past the next round, but delighted they pulled through. Monaco looked dead and buried. Well done to all who had winners :ok

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open Maroon Heaven and smeg, cheers for the tip on Dellacqua. Was watching the game and had a flutter at your advice at 2.50. Cheers, hope you all had a successful round too :ok

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open Marin Cilic vs Stanislas Wawrinka: Wawrinka at 2.20 Before you all say, I know this goes against my earlier tip in the week of Cilic EW for the tournament. But after watching Cilic really struggle to cope with Bernard Tomic, I fear for him. There seems to be a certain amount of passiveness in his game and he really needs to stamp that out against Wawrinka. The Swiss has been very impressive in the early rounds of the tournament, stuffing Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and Igor Kunitsyn in straight sets. He is on form at the right time. I sometimes fear for Wawrinka on his serve - he'll either bomb down aces or play a lot of weak second serves - but Cilic's ball striking has been a little off in Melbourne. He has a very wristy forehand, so he finds it hard to control the stroke, and while his backhand is strong, he doesn't seem to be playing with as much power as he usually does. Wawrinka has a gorgeous single-handed backhand and can dominate with that stroke and he has good court coverage. The H2H figures are interesting. Wawrinka leads 4-1 but the last time they met was two weeks ago in the final of Chennai, where Cilic won 7-6 7-6. That was a very close match and I can see this one being very similar. I'm just not enamoured with Cilic's game at present and I think the price is a bit too big on Wawrinka to prevail here. The court plays more like clay than some other courts - the red dust is the Swiss' preferred surface - and he'll make Cilic play a lot of shots, which could draw errors. A small bet on the Swiss is worth taking, as I do think he's got a good chance of taking out the Croat here. Bet strength: 1pt

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open I think it's quite a tough card to choose from in the men's section. Karlovic vs Ljubicic is a tough match where anything could happen, and the odds reflect that accordingly. I was looking for Monfils to beat Isner at around the 1.80 mark but he's too skinny at 1.44 to back. I think he'll win, but there's no value and Monfils can throw in a howler. The other one that I considered was Korolev to take out Gonzalez at 4.5. The price is good on an in-form player who has beaten Gonzalez before, but the Chilean always saves his best tennis for the slams and has done well here in the past. In my eyes, value is only value if you think the selection is going to win. As much as I like the odds, I just can't see Korolev winning. Good luck, Atko

[Arantxa]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open

Hi folks, after a fantastic night yesterday i have quiet a bit in tonight as well. No time to explain every pick into detail, but had my thoughts over the day and jumped onto the handicap lines at pinnacle as soon as they were out. Impossible to post actual prices as they change every 2 minutes, but i will post the prices as i got them, no matter if they are higher, equal or lower than the actual. Think it will level up anyway.... All odds from pinnacle.... ATP Match bets: Baghdatis tb. Ferrer @1,80 5/10 :ok Going against Ferrer here is not easy but his form is nothing special at the moment, whereas Baghdatis looks good in "his" slam. Will surely be supported by his partisan crowd again and with his solid strokes and good serving he should avoid too much of the 35+ strokes rallies, which is the only plus one can see with Ferrer.... Almagro tb. Becker @1,769 7/10 :ok Almagro is the better tennis player no doubt and also has a decent serve to boot, so he should have no problem with an average becker. I think Almagro´s price is so high, because he lost badly to Gicquel, but i saw this match and he gave 10% at best, just wanting some 1st round price money and a good hit heading for the aussie open. This is real business here.... Haas tb. Tipsarevic @1,855 3/10 :ok Maybe one to avoid, but taking small stakes here as i see a bit of value in the german who is superior slam player... Falla tb. Granollers Puyol @2,10 6,5/10 :ok Hmm what would this prices have been, if they played first round? Söderling beat himself and Falla impressed me with his quallies form late last year. Has more hardcourt pedigree for me and except a mentaly ill Söderling, Granollers hasn´t beaten anybody of note on hard.... Koubek tb. Dodig @1,80 3/10 :ok Both of them could only dream of such an opponent heading into a second roud of a slam, but i think Koubek can wear Dodig down with his dritballer style he has the fitness advantage also and Dodig is no sort of a talent at 25 years of age... Berrer tb. Istomin @1,704 6/10 :@ Well its time to trust Berrer finally who has a great run, serving well and no sign of a letdown yet.... Robert tb. Montanes @2,26 3/10 :@ 2-0 sets up... Will side with the hard surface player here. Montanes the slightly better player overall and Robert with fine hard results late. Hard to split what should be 50/50 a classic. Handicaps and WTA: As nothing sticks out to me matchwise with the WTA i have done a few handicaps. Just a one sentence each, as this is getting long.... S. Williams -6,5 Games tb.Kvitova @1,916 5/10 :ok Williams has a habit of destroying her opponents and withn her fitness a little bit dodgy she will look to shorten this as much as possible... Lisicki -6 Games tb. Brianti @1,847 6/10 :wall even manages to lose.... Lisicki with much more firepower, can see a 6-1 or 6-0 set, this should be easily through... Barrois -Stosur over 19,5 Games @1,926 5/10 :ok Has already been discussed, Stosur not in good form, Barrois likes the big stage, this will be close, probably 3 sets with Stosur edging it in the end.. Benesova +5 Games tb. Zvonereva @2,12 4/10 :@ Lot of work for Vera here i think, Benesova is decent serving and should keep it close enough... Goerges+6,5 Games tb. Wozniacki @1,877 7/10 :@ I like Goerges style of play a lot, she is talented i think and 6,5 games is a lot of wood.... Peer - 5 Games tb. Pironkova @1,877 6/10 :ok Same as yesterday, Pironkova a bit togher nut to crack, but still its ladies tennis and she could as well fall apart if she loses the first set. Maybe a 7-5 6-1 or 6-4 6-1.... Arvidson+ 5 Games tb.Hantuchova @1,943 10/10 :wall Max stake for me here, Hantuchova is bad at the moment, serving not like it is her standard, Arvidson digs deep and this could as well be major upset here, but i like the safer bets and a high strike rate, so this is the way to go for me... Radwanka -5,5 Games tb. Kudryavtseva @1,84 7/10 :ok Radwanska can be ruthless at times and she has the stable game to just edge every game. See a hard blow for the russian girl here... Bammer + 6 Games tb. V. Williams @2 3/10 :zzzpush Bammer is a fighter and will enjoy the athmosphere and i think she will grind out 7 Games... low stakes, as it is against the Williams clan though... and a few from the ATP: Chiudinelli +8 Games tb. Djokovic @1,775 8/10 :@ Lot of wood again, Djoko not in the best form and early in the slams he often likes to just edge it with minimum effort.... Hewitt -7,5 Games tb. Young @1,87 6/10 :ok Hewitt makes short process of his opponents if they have no weapon to hurt him and that is exactely how i see Young, no weapons, just a worse Hewitt... Hajek +7,5 Games tb. Youzhny @1,962 6/10 :@ Hajek is serving decent enough to stay in this and Youzhny, although he made a fine game versus Gasquet, is well capable of a letdown in one set, which will be enough i think... Tsonga -6,5 Games tb. Dent @1,794 4/10 :ok Both are serving well normally, but i can see Dent backing down in one set, if a break down and this should be enough... eg. 7-5 6-7 6-2 6-4 Tsonga... Sergeyev +8,5 Games tb. Verdasco @2 5/10 :@ Surely Verdasco is the better player here, but Sergeyev is very match fit and served pretty well until this stage. Verdasco found it hard enough to break and one dimensional Carsten Ball, so this will be close enough i think... Kubot - Giraldo OVER 39,5 Games @1,885 6/10 :@ This has a thriller written all over it, Match odds are right with Kubot a slight favourite, but Giraldo took out a slam consistent Robredo impressingly so tight 4 or 5 sets for me... Lot of wood from me :eek:loon:eek too but :hope it won´t be my worst day in history.... Good luck and good games:cheers MfG Arantxa

Final states: Will stick to match bets and "to win a set bets" from now on, unbelievable blow on the handicaps, don´t know where to start... Chiudinelli wins a set 6-3 and still manages to blow +11!! Games from then on, Arvidson has break points to go 5-4 up in the 1st set, loses 6-4 and then 6-1, Lisicki even LOSES to Brianti wtf, Benesova,Hajek and Sergeyev..no comment... Seems that i don´t have the feeling for handicaps.... Match bets: Staked: 33,50 units Profit: 12,50 units ROI: 37% Handicap bets: Staked: 85,00 Loss: -23,25 units ROI: -27,35%

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open Quick question Aranxta. In your figures, what does "ROI" stand for? Cheers!

[kevshat]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open

Quick question Aranxta. In your figures, what does "ROI" stand for? Cheers!

It'll be Return on Investment mate. Or yield :ok

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open Horrible card tomorrow. Will probably just stick some small amounts for interest in these games..... Ljubicic vs Karlovic...surely more than 3 sets...over 3.5 sets is 4/9 Roddick vs Lopez....under/over 33.5 games.....can't decide in this one. Roddick will win though. Rafa vs Kohlschreiber....under/over 30.5 games....6-4 6-4 6-4 Rafa wins the bet. I think that's a possibility. Maybe one tough set but he'll probably cruise at least one set aswell. Just initial thoughts.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open Yeah will put small amounts on these just for some interest tonight.......... Ljubicic/Karlovic over 3.5 sets @ 4/9.....can't see either winning in 3. Don't like the overs line really. Should be a topsy turvy match. Nadal/Kohli under 30.5 games @ 5/6....might be tricky for Nadal but he's far superior. Playing quite well too. Kohli picked up last week in Auckland but Nadal will test him. BH not working so well in recent weeks, something Rafa might exploit. Roddick x Safina x Gonzalez x Nadal x Wickmayer @ 7/10...Lopez hasn't been so good, Roddick is too consistent. Safina should beat Baltacha, she's basically a far better version of her. Korolev can cause Gonzo trouble but he's too pwerful I think, might lose a set though. Nadal will beat Kohlschreiber. Errani might be a tricky customer for Wickmayer but Yanina could overpower her. GL!!

[Lahrio]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open Wawrinka @ 2.10 Cilic really struggled against the young Australian Tomic, and I really don't think Tomic played well enough to force Cilic into playing poor tennis. I think Wawrinka will make him pay for his errors more than Tomic did. Might also have a flutter on Nadal bet you have going there Gooner.:ok

[Arantxa]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open Hi, this for tonight. Tried to avoid the handicaps as much as possible... Henin tb. Kleybanova+ Jankovic tb. Bondarenko ~@1,60 10/10 Henin has played a class match against Dementieva and will be surprised how easy it is against Kleybanova. Jankovic has 8-0 H2H and 7 times 2-0, so she knows what to do obviously.... Monfils to win 3-0 @3,54 5/10 and 3-1 @3,92 2/10 pin As i already mentioned i can´t think of more than a set for Isner here, despite their close meetings in the past. Isner admitted to be a bit tired already, have much fun against Monfils then....:lol Kuznetsowa Under 18 Games @1,84 5/10 Kuz a class ahead and i learned yesterday that the classy girls nearly always beat the handicap... Vinci tb. Kirilenko @3,22 4/10 Can´t see much between the two.... value Gonzo to win 3-1 @3,59 3/10 As Korolew to win a set is quiet low, i back him to win "exactely" one set. Jankovic 2-0 @2,00 4/10 as mentioned above... Henin -6 Games tb. Kleybanova @2,03 4/10 as mentioned above... Wawrinka tb. Cilic @2,08 7/10 For me Wawrinka is favourite in this, has won 3-0 first two rounds, saved energy, while Cilic did play realy poor against Tomic, no ideas or variation... Good luck:cheers

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open i don't really see a whole lot to bet on tonight except bartoli at 4-6 with boylesports. think she will really punish zhengs weak serving and is overall more solid than zheng who has a great backhand but erratic forehand. maybe korolev to beat the handicap,murrays match to be under 29 games and nadal to beat the handicap! good luck

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open I see that's now three of us on the Wawrinka bandwagon, price has come in so quite pleased with the 2.20 I got earlier. Hopefully the Swiss will do the biz!

[smegmaniac]

Re: Tennis - Australian Open guys, i'm going to go against you all and say that cilic will win against wawrinka!wawrinka is playing great but when it comes down to the crunch he buckles under pressure in the most important matches! i've lost count of all the matches i've seen him lose 7-6 7-6 against top players!(cilic 2 weeks ago) i also really like del potro to beat the 7.5 handicap at 8-11 wth powers