Atko Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Stepanek (vs Karlovic) x Isner (vs Seppi): Double at 2.02 Stepanek is a good Grand Slam player. He has the nerve and the mettle to win these sorts of matches. Importantly, in their last meeting, Stepanek beat Karlovic in a five-set epic at the Davis Cup, and I think that gives the Czech the momentum. He got to the final of Brisbane, while Karlovic hasn't been serving as well as he usually does. He'll find the heat here tough and always struggles in best of five sets. As for John Isner, he won Auckland last week and although he played a lot of tennis, his power and serve will be too much for Seppi. I like the Italian but his serve lets him down too often and he finds big hitters tough to overcome. The fact that the match is played in the evening is good news for Isner, who has a big frame and would perhaps have struggled more. Bet strength: 3pts Fish (vs Golubev) x Korolev (vs Brands): Double at 1.78 Mardy Fish looked pretty good in Sydney, his serve and volley tactics only came unstuck to eventual winner Baghdatis. I can't see Golubev unduly troubling him. The Kazakh had a decent Hopman Cup but Fish wil look to go fairly far into this tournament. Golubev's consistency over five sets worries me and I reckon the American should have too much here. Evgeny Korolev is a player that I quite like, he's a buzzbomb of a player who hits the ball extremely hard. Brands prefers clay - any hard court appears too quick for him - and Korolev seems to like this surface. The Russian will have his eyes on progressing to the next round here. Bet strength: 3pts Kohlschreiber (vs Zeballos) x Bellucci (vs Gabashvili) x Querrey (vs Schuettler): Treble at 1.79 We'll start with Kohlschreiber. The German got back to winning ways in Auckland, while Zeballos crashed out at the first hurdle and looked meek against Juan Monaco. I think Kohlschreiber should have enough for him. Teimuraz Gabashvili is an enigma of a player. He's got the talent but not the temperament. He's not played at all this year while Bellucci has had two decent tournaments. The Brazilian is improving and will pick on the Russian's erratic serving. As for Sam Querrey, he'll be able to outlast an ageing Rainer Schuettler, whose serve is also erratic. The American will bomb down aces and should hold all the cards here. Bet strength: 3pts Marc Gicquel vs Simone Bolelli: Bolelli at 2.72 Gicquel comes into this tournament with a bit of form on the courts, but I like the Italian at huge odds. Gicquel is ageing, he's not the sort of player who will relish five sets in the heat. He has a big serve and a big forehand but out of all the Italians on tour, I rate Bolelli the highest. He's got all the shots, it's just mentality that can let him down. He'll feel comfortable on a slower hard court. They've met twice and both have won once, Gicquel on an American hard court, Bolelli on clay. With this tie on a slower surface, I reckon it plays into the Italian's hands. Stamina will be a big factor in the heat and I reckon the Italian will pull through here. Bet strength: 3pts Feliciano Lopez vs Pablo Cuevas: Cuevas at 2.70 This is more of a hunch than anything else, but the Uruguayan has a chance here. Lopez is a good player but he prefers quicker surfaces than this and was completely dismantled in his only match of the year so far, a 6-1 6-4 to Richard Gasquet. Cuevas is, by trade, a clay court player, but I believe he's a player that can cause some damage to a guy like Lopez who won't enjoy a sparring battle from baseline. Lopez is higher ranked but I can see an upset here. Bet strength: 1pt That's my lot here. First day of the first round can be hit or miss sometimes, but there are some good bets out there. Hopefully we can take advantage of them here. Good luck to all, Atko Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smegmaniac Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open The more i've looked at the draw,the more i have seen bets that i like!! here they are: I agree with winningtipster on the koubek bet at 4-7 with padypowers (think the 8-13 price has gone elsewhere)! koubek came through qualifying against 3 decent players (beat sweeting 9-7 in the third) so he is obviously motivated!! he generally raises his game for the slams and he likes australian open! two years ago he beat moya,the in-form calleri and loast 8-6 to mathieu in 3rd round final set! ram is simply in terrible form (lost to de bakker 1-6,1-6) less than 2 weeks ago! he has never won a match in the main draw of a grand slam! koubek is a smart player,solid of both wings,particularly backhand and has the experience and motivation on his side!! i'm confident he will win! 3PT WIN KOUBEK TO BEAT RAM AT 4-7 WITH POWERS! i also like a baczinsky-montanes double with boyles at 8-11! baczinsky si playin meusberger and is 4-9 to win!timea had progressed into a solid grandslam performer,she has an excellent backhand and her forehand is a weapon too!meusberger is a solid player but with no weapons and she has been around for a long time and the only time she's ever progressed to the second round of a grandslam is when she's faced poor opposition!timea is motivated and a class ahead! montanes has won his last 6 matches against hernandez!He is much more comfortable on hard courts than hernandez,he is in good form after making it to the semi-final at auckland losing to eventual winner isner and i just cant see him losing here at 1-4! 3PTS....BACZINSKY-MONTANES DOUBLE WITH BOYLES AT 8-11! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smegmaniac Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open I also like your tip on mayer at 4-6 with boyles winningtipster! he won that challenger event less than two weeks ago! he is generally fairly solid from the back of the court but the main reason i like it is because petschner is in such poor form! he's a strange player petschner because for six months last year he could hardly win a match regardless of the opposition but then he comes to life in the summer with good showings at all the grandslams before going back to his losing ways again in late autumn! last year he lost (6-2,6-4,6-1) to lowly brian dabul in the first round! and he got hammered in his only match so far this year too! it seems when he's not on his game he's trully awful! so i like the price on mayer to win 3-0 at 5-2 with bet365! The reason being is that petschner has a pretty decent 5 set record and if this one goes to 5 i'd fancy petschner to win it!! so its mayer 2 win easy at 5-2 that represents value 4 me!1PT MAYER TO BEAT PETSCHNER 3-0 AT 5-2 BET365! I also like melzer to beat serra!! melzer has really become very consistent in the grandslams the last few years!! it always took one of the top players to beat him (top players as in top ten) in the slams last year(murray in oz,monfils in france,roddick in wimbledon and del potro in d meadows) and he give the big guns plenty of food fro thought in those matches! his mental strength has improved (used to be his downfall) and he has lots of variety in his game, good hands at the net, good aggressive return, excellent lefty forehand! playing against a lefty shouldnt bother serra but i think his game is a little too one dimensional!he lost here last year to karanusic in the first round!he's a good match player but i think melzer is a class above with lots more weapons! and i like the fact he has become so consistent in the slams! i think he'll win in 4 sets! 2PT WIN JURGEN MELZER TO BEAT FLORENT SERRA AT 4-6 BOYLESPORTS!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atko Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open The more i've looked at the draw,the more i have seen bets that i like!! here they are: I agree with winningtipster on the koubek bet at 4-7 with padypowers (think the 8-13 price has gone elsewhere)! koubek came through qualifying against 3 decent players (beat sweeting 9-7 in the third) so he is obviously motivated!! he generally raises his game for the slams and he likes australian open! two years ago he beat moya,the in-form calleri and loast 8-6 to mathieu in 3rd round final set! ram is simply in terrible form (lost to de bakker 1-6,1-6) less than 2 weeks ago! he has never won a match in the main draw of a grand slam! koubek is a smart player,solid of both wings,particularly backhand and has the experience and motivation on his side!! i'm confident he will win! 3PT WIN KOUBEK TO BEAT RAM AT 4-7 WITH POWERS! i also like a baczinsky-montanes double with boyles at 8-11! baczinsky si playin meusberger and is 4-9 to win!timea had progressed into a solid grandslam performer,she has an excellent backhand and her forehand is a weapon too!meusberger is a solid player but with no weapons and she has been around for a long time and the only time she's ever progressed to the second round of a grandslam is when she's faced poor opposition!timea is motivated and a class ahead! montanes has won his last 6 matches against hernandez!He is much more comfortable on hard courts than hernandez,he is in good form after making it to the semi-final at auckland losing to eventual winner isner and i just cant see him losing here at 1-4! 3PTS....BACZINSKY-MONTANES DOUBLE WITH BOYLES AT 8-11! Good write-up smeg. I can't comment on the female pick but agree entirely about Albert Montanes. Hernandez is older and doesn't care much for the hard courts, surprised he's even bothering to make an appearance. Perhaps because they are a little slower than other hard courts, but even still. I am tempted by Koubek (think it's on Tuesday, so haven't gone in-depth yet) but part of me is concerned about his fitness. He's not one to go five sets these days and as he's very fair, he might struggle in the awesome heat. Scheduling might play a part in what I do there. Good luck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atko Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open I also like your tip on mayer at 4-6 with boyles winningtipster! he won that challenger event less than two weeks ago! he is generally fairly solid from the back of the court but the main reason i like it is because petschner is in such poor form! he's a strange player petschner because for six months last year he could hardly win a match regardless of the opposition but then he comes to life in the summer with good showings at all the grandslams before going back to his losing ways again in late autumn! last year he lost (6-2,6-4,6-1) to lowly brian dabul in the first round! and he got hammered in his only match so far this year too! it seems when he's not on his game he's trully awful! so i like the price on mayer to win 3-0 at 5-2 with bet365! The reason being is that petschner has a pretty decent 5 set record and if this one goes to 5 i'd fancy petschner to win it!! so its mayer 2 win easy at 5-2 that represents value 4 me!1PT MAYER TO BEAT PETSCHNER 3-0 AT 5-2 BET365! I also like melzer to beat serra!! melzer has really become very consistent in the grandslams the last few years!! it always took one of the top players to beat him (top players as in top ten) in the slams last year(murray in oz,monfils in france,roddick in wimbledon and del potro in d meadows) and he give the big guns plenty of food fro thought in those matches! his mental strength has improved (used to be his downfall) and he has lots of variety in his game, good hands at the net, good aggressive return, excellent lefty forehand! playing against a lefty shouldnt bother serra but i think his game is a little too one dimensional!he lost here last year to karanusic in the first round!he's a good match player but i think melzer is a class above with lots more weapons! and i like the fact he has become so consistent in the slams! i think he'll win in 4 sets! 2PT WIN JURGEN MELZER TO BEAT FLORENT SERRA AT 4-6 BOYLESPORTS!! Serra beat Melzer in Brisbane 6-4 6-3 last year on a very similar court as to the Open. That's their only previous meeting. Not getting involved in a trappy tie but think it's worth mentioning, in a Devil's Advocate role ;) Hope the big Austrian reverses the form for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smegmaniac Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open handicap and total games bets now!! firstly totally agree with red impact about stepanek-karlovic over 39.5 games at 4-5(what a price!!)with bet365. It almost seems like they just calculated these odds due to karlovis being at 7-4 but they haven't taken into account the players we are dealing with!!!!! obviously money has come on since then and d price has changed to 4-7! i can't see either these guys win in straights and 39 games really suggests that a 4 set match is enough and judging by these two mens history it should be at least a 4 setter! 2pts OVER 39.5 GAMES STEPANEK-KARLOVIC AT 4-7! I also like the wawrinka-garcia-lopez match to be over 32 games!! I've been looking at wawrinkas results in grandslams over the last two years and he seems to really make hard work of the early rounds!he lost to lapenti in 5 sets in the last slam...us open! garcia-lopez is no stranger to causing first round upsets in the slams(tomas berdych knows all about him)!he's also no stranger to long marathon 5 setters! he's got a big serve and i expect there to be at least one tie-break in the match!he does tend to bring his best tennis to the slams! wawrinka made hard work of berrer and sela last week! i think garcia-lopez can push wawrinka all the way or at least win a set and he also represents value to cause an upset at 4-1! 2PT WIN WAWRINKA-GARCIA-LOPEZ OVERS 32.5 AT 11-10 WITH BET365! Usually gonzalez doesnt come out of the blocks all guns blazing in the slams but i think he is good value minus 7.5 games against diminutive belgian olivier rochus! he has hammered rochus in their two previous matches, rochus is in poor form at the moment(comfortably beaten by troiki recently) and he has a weak serve which gives gonzo a look-in in all the servus games! he should be able to hit rochus off the court! 1pt gonzalez minus 7.5 games against o rochus at 4-6! alona bondarenko is in great form at the momentbeating cornet,medina,zheng and peer all last week! she is playing veteran woerle who really had a very soft draw in the qualifiers and has usually been hammered any time she has qualified to the main draw before! considering bondys good form and koerle's limited ability i suggest this match will be short and under 18.5 games at 11-10 which i think is a good price! 2pts bondarenko-woerle under 18.5 games with bet365 at 11-10! Dementieva had a great week last week beating lots of top players on the way to beating serena in the final! however,i'd say that week took its toll and it's very hard to come back in the first round and play at such a perfect intense level again! she's playing against dushevina a player who pushed her all the way in the french last year! dushevina is very consistent and has a very good serve (maybe one of the best serves in the womens game when she's on song) and unless dementieva is at her very best in the first round (elena usually works her way into a tourney) i think this match has to be over 17.5 games at 8-11 bet365! TIP 2PTS DEMENTIEVA DUSHEVINA OVER 17.5 GAMES AT 8-11 BET365! Lastly, i cant help but feel that flipkens plus 7.5 games is too big a handicap against justine henin!!flipkens is a very tricky plaer with a nice forehand(though she has a weak backhand-all she can do is slice and justine will take advantage)! but flipkens plays well in the slams.....3rd round at wimbledon and 4th at the us open last year! she also gave jankovic a tough game last year at the aussie open! justine hasn't being hammering players since her comeback and its the first round...she'll hardly be all guns blazing...and 7.5 games is the type of handicap she should have against a player like de los rios or woerle not an nopponent as good as flipkens! it's not a cert but it has to be backed because of the value!! 2PTS FLIPKENS PLUS 7.5 GAMES AGAINST HENIN AT 4-6 BET365! GOOD LUCK!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smegmaniac Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open cheers atko!!yeah i'm aware of serra beating melzer and i appreciate that you posted it up for me because at the end of the day we're all in this together! I've considered that result but it was melzers first tournament back from the holidays!! i just think 4-6 is too good a price to turn down considering what he's achieved in the grand slams where he plays his best tennis over the last twop years ago! if he brings his a-game though he's simply a better player than serra on form! some times ya gotta go with your gut! i also have similar concerns about koubeks fitness but over his career he's been no stranger to 5 setters and winning them at that! i just think he will win this one handy to be honest! dont think it will go as far as 5 sets....but sure they dont call it gambling for nothing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cosmetic Bob Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Ok guys ive been on this forum long enough to know reasoning should be wrote about your bets, but this is a system ive done in the grand slams past 4 years. Put all the short price favourites in an acca which i think are certs to win, in this case none of my 25 are bigger than 1/5 nterestingly i dont chose Federer From Stan James, this bet pays just over 11/2 Roddick v De Bakker-Men's Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Men Roddick, Andy1/100Rochus v Gonzalez-Men's Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Men Gonzalez, Fernando1/16Garcia-Lopez v Wawrinka-Men's Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Men Wawrinka, Stanislas1/5Kubler v Ljubicic-Men's Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Men Ljubicic, Ivan1/20Murray v Anderson-Men's Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Men Murray, Andrew1/50Cilic v Santoro-Men's Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Men Cilic, Marin1/50Luczak v Nadal-Men's Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Men Nadal, Rafael1/100Verdasco v Ball-Men's Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Men Verdasco, Fernando1/20Giraldo v Robredo-Men's Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Men Robredo, Tommy1/8Harrison v Tipsarevic-Men's Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Men Tipsarevic, Janko1/12Dodig v Ferrero-Men's Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Men Ferrero, Juan Carlos1/5Kindlmann v Davydenko-Men's Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Men Davydenko, Nikolay1/50Ebden v Monfils-Men's Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Men Monfils, Gael1/16Gil v Ferrer-Men's Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Men Ferrer, David1/8Bondarenko v Woerle-Ladies' Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Ladies Bondarenko, Alona1/14Wickmayer v Dulgheru-Ladies' Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Ladies Wickmayer, Yanina1/20Clijsters v Tetreault-Ladies' Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Ladies Clijsters, Kim1/50Stosur v Han-Ladies' Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Ladies Stosur, Samantha1/20Rodionova v Kuznetsova-Ladies' Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Ladies Kuznetsova, Svetlana1/10De Los Rios v Bartoli-Ladies' Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Ladies Bartoli, Marion1/20Flipkens v Henin-Ladies' Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Ladies Henin, Justine1/25Dementieva v Dushevina-Ladies' Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Ladies Dementieva, Elena1/20Lisicki v Martic-Ladies' Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Ladies Lisicki, Sabine1/14Tsonga v Stakhovsky-Men's Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Men Tsonga, Jo-Wilfried1/8Granollers v Soderling-Men's Australian Open 1st Rnd Match Prices (1st Rd)-Men Soderling, Robin1/7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keliot Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Careful with Juan Carlos Ferrero. He withdrew from Auckland after twisting his ankle and it might be worth laying him on anywhere that doesn't void retirements, backing Dodig to take a set or else waiting and doing something inplay when his condition and the direction of the match is clearer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cramer Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open So many matches and I've got so little time:cry Sport Tennis Event WTA Australian Open 2nd quarter winner Selection Caroline Wozniacki Strength 10/10 Date 28/01/2010 Bookmaker/Price Skybet @ 3.50 (Back) Reasoning Wozniacki could become the new star of WTA this season, and I really like her to make the semi finals. She made the final of the US Open and in the end of year championships showed magnicifant fight when injured and cramping. She has the game to win this tournament but with so many big names and a potential semi final against Serena, I'll take the quarter bet. In her quarter the favourite is Venus, but I really think she is over rated on hard courts. I'd be quite surprised if she made the quarter final, and if she does I'd take Caroline to smash her up. Decent draw and this looks a great price. Sport Tennis Event WTA Australian Open 4th quarter winner Selection Maria Sharapova Strength 10/10 Date 28/01/2010 Bookmaker/Price Skybet @ 2.87 (Back) Reasoning I like Sharapova a lot in this tournament. She seems to be injury free now and looked good in the exhibition in Hong Kong. She's a magnificant fighter and when serving well the whole field has problems. She's in a nice quarter, with the other big names Safina and Jankovic looking very poor. They could suffer early exits, and this quarter could really open up for Maria. Sport Tennis Event ATP Australian Open 4th quarter winner Selection Rafael Nadal Strength 10/10 Date 28/01/2010 Bookmaker/Price Canbet @ 1.85 (Back) Reasoning Nadal looks back to his best. He played excellent tennis in Doha and coming here to defend his title I think he'll make at least the semis. His quarter seems OK with the big worry Murray. I think Murray will do pretty well but if he starts playing the passive rubbish he likes he could be an early casualty. If it comes to the Murray v Nadal quarter final I'd definately take Nadal who looks in great shape to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keliot Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Smeg, could you do us a favour and put in some spaces and paragraphs, take out all the distracting exclamation marks and maybe use bold for players' names? It's really hard work reading your posts which is a shame because you've obviously put a lot of effort into researching your picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westy Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Smeg' date=' could you do us a favour and put in some spaces and paragraphs, take out all the distracting exclamation marks and maybe use bold for players' names? It's really hard work reading your posts which is a shame because you've obviously put a lot of effort into researching your picks.[/quote'] I concur. The tip in bold with the price would be nice as he obviously knows his stuff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kewell Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Love all of your research so far! Thank you for sharing your hard work on here. Can I also make one suggestion; as the tournament goes on; this thread is going to get very cluttered. Can a mod please make a new thread for each day of competition, or at least each round? My tips today are a double of: Korolev to defeat Brands into Grosjean to defeat Ilhan. This is 1 unit at $2.07 at sportingbet.com.au Both of these players are playing qualifiers who just won't have enough to match them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smegmaniac Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Thanks guys for the advice.I will try to make my tips look more professional from here on in. I have already posted all my strong tips and honestly i couldn't rewriet them because it would take me forever! but i will try cut down on the exclamation marks. it is just a habit. I also have some value one point bets to share now before the first day begins. 1)1pt: fedak to beat hercog at 11-10 with paddypowers 2)1pt:jose acasuso to beat igor kunitsyn at 4-5 with boylesports 3)1pt:elena baltacha to beat pauline parmentier at 4-6 with boylesports 4)1pt: makarova to beat razzano at a big price of 5-2 with boylesports 5)1pt: rogowska to beat cirstea at 11-4 with bet365 6)an accunulator of martinez-sanchez,errani and cibulkova at 4-5 with boylesports:2pts i honestly don't have time to explain these bets (unless someone is particularly curious about one or two) but from now on i will try to make my posts more user friendly. They are basically value bets based on the prices.As i have stated already I have already posted my main tips. good luck all!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted January 17, 2010 Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Love all of your research so far! Thank you for sharing your hard work on here. Can I also make one suggestion; as the tournament goes on; this thread is going to get very cluttered. Can a mod please make a new thread for each day of competition, or at least each round? My tips today are a double of: Korolev to defeat Brands into Grosjean to defeat Ilhan. This is 1 unit at $2.07 at sportingbet.com.au Both of these players are playing qualifiers who just won't have enough to match them. I guess keeping all in one thread will work much better than making loads of threads for separate days which was tried in the past and proved to be very confusing as not everyone posted in the right one. Maybe a new thread can be made for the second week, but then again many will be complaining about not being able to view past tips comfortably. For the time being I can't see any reason for opening separate thread.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted January 18, 2010 Author Share Posted January 18, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Have taken a couple of small early singles in the womens here, looking for value. Yanina Wickmayer @ 90's for the womans title. don't expect her to win, but she is in great form just now and could make a run as far as the qtrs depending on the draw. She made the semis at the US last year so can play big games when required. Wickmayer cruised through qualification looking really strong. Last two matches were won 6-0 6-1 and 6-0 6-0 Pannetta is the only player of real quality that could stop her making at least the third round. As said above it's a back and lay play Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyHarris1980 Posted January 18, 2010 Share Posted January 18, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Australian Open - Mens Outright 1.5 pts Novak Djokovic @ 17/2 Bwin The most open Mens grand slam market for quite some time, Roger Federer at 3/1 may well prove to be a generous price but enough evidence of a changing of the guard to convince me he is worth taking on. Davydenko is the form player at the moment and seems to be sweeping all before him. However, he has been readily available at 50s for grand slams over the past few years and having never reached the final of a major before. At 28 it would be unusual in the extreme for him to still have his best days ahead of him and coupled with odds no better than 11/1 doesn't look a great price to me. Rafa is also showing signs of coming back to his best but the knees havn't been tested over the 7 5 set matches required to win this, Murray and Del Potro are both about the right price being in the harder half of the draw imo. That leaves me with Djokovic, a previous winner of this who should make the semi's without too many problems he did Feds in at that stage when he lifted the title in '08 so I'm happy to back the Serb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyHarris1980 Posted January 18, 2010 Share Posted January 18, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Australian Open - Mens Outright 1pt e/w Marin Cilic 40/1 Sp Bet Looking for a bit of value in the eachway market I like the look of the fast improving Croat. Dominated Murray at the US Open, his forehand is similar to the brute Del Potro wields and when he's on form, is capable of blasting his opponents off court. Still young and fancied by many experts to really kick on this year. A general 25/1 with most firms, Sporting Bets 40s was just too big to ignore for me. Australian Open - Womens Outright 3pts Serena Williams 10/3 Skybet The womens draw has a clear discrepancy in potential winners between the two halfs. Sharapova, Dementieva, and crucially Clijsters and Henin are all in the much harder looking bottom half. Serena looks to have an absolute passage to the semi's for me and with this being her most succesful slam odds of 10/3 look a rare bit of value on a favourite. Rumours of injury worries but that is nothing new, Serena has appeared on court numerous times over the last few years with some form of setback or other it didn't stop her winning majors then. Providing it is only something minor, her undiminished will to win should ensure she is performing at close to 100% over the next few weeks in Melbourne. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornell Posted January 18, 2010 Share Posted January 18, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Sport Tennis Event Simone Bolelli - Marc Gicquel Selection Bolleli Strength 10/10 Date 01/18/2010 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 2.95 (Back) Reasoning Simone Bolelli has been away for a long time from those positive results as he has lost his latest nine games in a row at the end of the last season and this season has lost against Nadal while Marc Gicquel has showed a clear much better form than the italian. So, the situation here is very understandable why we have these great odds on Bolelli, a player just more complete and more talented overall than Gicquel. Behind all these stats on the paper which clear favor the frenchman I will say that first of all now is already a new season where the italian already has showed some nice tennis in his first game against Rafa even if he has lost it, secondly at the end of the last season Bolelli has lost in most of his games against difficult opponents and has been unlucky several times. Gicquel is a player with less potential and qualities than Bolelli but he is the favourite before this game just because he has registered better results than the italian who is clear underrated at the moment. IMO this is just a great moment to go with Bolelli as he overall is the better player than Gicquel. Good Luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornell Posted January 18, 2010 Share Posted January 18, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Sport Tennis Event Jose Acasuso - Igor Kunitsyn Selection Acasuso Strength 10/10 Date 01/18/2010 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.83 (Back) Reasoning Jose Acasuso is just the more stable player from many points of view than Igor Kunitsyn when it comes to play at a Grand Slam. First of all Kunitsyn is not the player who can achieve too much because he lacks the mentally power for big events. Acasuso possess just more experience of important games than the russian and as a proof overall by during the years he has achieved much better results. Speaking about form I can't say too much about these two players as both of them have played just one game where neither impressed. One game can't say too much about the current form, so it will all depend of the preparation. Last season have been a disaster for Kunitsyn as he had so many losses, many of them against not difficult opponents at all. Anyway, this is a new season and is another chance for him to prove another level of tennis although the lack of confidence should affect him. Acasuso is the player who focuses a lot on games like these, of big importance and he can play better under pressure than the russian under pressure. IMO, Acasuso should be the more confident player on the court. Good Luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornell Posted January 18, 2010 Share Posted January 18, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Sport Tennis Event Jurgen Melzer - Florent Serra Selection Melzer (-3) GH (Asian Handicap) Strength 10/10 Date 01/18/2010 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 1.93 (Back) Reasoning Jurgen Melzer didn't impressed too much at Brisbane and Auckland too, thats why he is underrated against Serra. Why he didn't impressed too much in these two torunaments, well there is all about the motivation as these were tournaments more for preparation before AO. I'm sure that here at AO Melzer will everything on the court to win against the frenchman who just one level down certain on hard than Melzer. Besides the class difference between these two players certain on hard there is another factor very important too which is the mentally power, well from this point of view I have to say that Melzer will surely have an advantage against Serra who had so many problems in the past due to certain his lack of concentration. Melzer is just the better player on hard than Serra, he is just underrated because he didn't showed anything special before AO but this can't change the essential things as he should have this game all in control. Good Luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cornell Posted January 18, 2010 Share Posted January 18, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Sport Tennis Event John Isner - Andreas Seppi Selection Seppi Strength 10/10 Date 01/18/2010 Bookmaker/Price Expekt @ 2.75 (Back) Reasoning Well, a really impressive tournament from John Isner's side as he has got the trophy, but I doubt he will play the same tennis here at AO as he had very few time to rest and to get accustomed with the new conditions. Usually, Isner impress with his tennis in USA and I doubt he will be able to keep the same level as on Auckland, he possess few experience when it comes to play out of USA. I think that Isner won't be ready 100% for AO as he had tough games at Auckland and a fast change should affect him. On the other hand the italian didn't impressed before AO and that seems to be a problem but I'm sure that he will give his best here as he is always playing some good tennis at Grand Slams. These two players are very closed to each others level, Isner possess just a great serve while Seppi is better from the baseline. All in all, the main reason here is Isner's preparation for AO as he had so few time to get prepared from many points of view. Good Luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted January 18, 2010 Share Posted January 18, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Kirilenko wins first set against Sharapova. Showing plenty of fight. How Andreev bagged Kirilenko I'll never know.............:lol Peng just bagelled Jie Zheng there.... WTA at its best! And Stepanek comfortably wins first set against Ivo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RocknRolla Posted January 18, 2010 Share Posted January 18, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Peng just bagelled Jie Zheng there.... WTA at its best! Zheng strikes back 6:1 ...wta at its best :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AntoNescU Posted January 18, 2010 Share Posted January 18, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Sport Tennis Event J Blake vs A Clement Selection A Clement Strength 10/10 Date 18/01/2010 Bookmaker/Price Pinnacle Sports @ 3.31 (Back) Reasoning Here I expect a balanced game between this players.Why?Because J Blake had last year oscillating evolutions.This year in his first matches won with Querry,Giquel ,but lost with Monfils.Very important is we must say he played in all these matches always 3 sets.The other side,Clement have good evolutions this year,he won with very important players from ATP ranking,won with Chardy,Ferrer,Melzer,Kohlschreiber and lost with Isner.Taking into account Blake had always problems with the players from France(with Gicquel and Monfils),I think Clement may continue the upward trend of its evolution that he cross now. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted January 18, 2010 Author Share Posted January 18, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Murray is looking in fantastic form. Some of the touches have been sublime Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red_impact Posted January 18, 2010 Share Posted January 18, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Funny how all you people have forgotten about the Andys to win AO :lol And also funny how you forgott Robin Soderling who does have a easy draw and will only be tested at first when facing potentially Tsonga in a quarter. Andy Roddick to win AO? Andy Murray to win AO? Soda to win AO? Murray - Roddick final? Nadal - Soderling final? It's a very open tournament this year so any player who don't get the tough draw will get a chance to win it. Stepanek is ruled out because of his hard first match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted January 18, 2010 Author Share Posted January 18, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Murray has an awful draw though, Nadal in the Qtrs, Del Porto in the Semi and Rog Federer in the final is what he'll most likely have to knock off to win it. He looked fantastic today. However it's a massive ask. Roddick is playing well, but I can't see him going beyond the qtrs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted January 18, 2010 Share Posted January 18, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Bet 6: Safarova/Venus over 20.5 games @ 10/11 Think Safarova keeps this one tight. She's got a good game, lefty and goes for her shots. Venus leads h2h 3-0...all on clay...safarova had match points at Rolland Garros last year though. I think her game is better for hard courts.Hard to know what shape Venus is in right now, definitely not ideal match for round one. She can be vulnerable here aswell...lost to many weaker opponents in Oz over the years. I think this may go to 3 sets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atko Posted January 18, 2010 Share Posted January 18, 2010 Re: Tennis - Australian Open Stepanek (vs Karlovic) x Isner (vs Seppi): Double at 2.02 Stepanek is a good Grand Slam player. He has the nerve and the mettle to win these sorts of matches. Importantly, in their last meeting, Stepanek beat Karlovic in a five-set epic at the Davis Cup, and I think that gives the Czech the momentum. He got to the final of Brisbane, while Karlovic hasn't been serving as well as he usually does. He'll find the heat here tough and always struggles in best of five sets. As for John Isner, he won Auckland last week and although he played a lot of tennis, his power and serve will be too much for Seppi. I like the Italian but his serve lets him down too often and he finds big hitters tough to overcome. The fact that the match is played in the evening is good news for Isner, who has a big frame and would perhaps have struggled more. Bet strength: 3pts Fish (vs Golubev) x Korolev (vs Brands): Double at 1.78 Mardy Fish looked pretty good in Sydney, his serve and volley tactics only came unstuck to eventual winner Baghdatis. I can't see Golubev unduly troubling him. The Kazakh had a decent Hopman Cup but Fish wil look to go fairly far into this tournament. Golubev's consistency over five sets worries me and I reckon the American should have too much here. Evgeny Korolev is a player that I quite like, he's a buzzbomb of a player who hits the ball extremely hard. Brands prefers clay - any hard court appears too quick for him - and Korolev seems to like this surface. The Russian will have his eyes on progressing to the next round here. Bet strength: 3pts Kohlschreiber (vs Zeballos) x Bellucci (vs Gabashvili) x Querrey (vs Schuettler): Treble at 1.79 We'll start with Kohlschreiber. The German got back to winning ways in Auckland, while Zeballos crashed out at the first hurdle and looked meek against Juan Monaco. I think Kohlschreiber should have enough for him. Teimuraz Gabashvili is an enigma of a player. He's got the talent but not the temperament. He's not played at all this year while Bellucci has had two decent tournaments. The Brazilian is improving and will pick on the Russian's erratic serving. As for Sam Querrey, he'll be able to outlast an ageing Rainer Schuettler, whose serve is also erratic. The American will bomb down aces and should hold all the cards here. Bet strength: 3pts Marc Gicquel vs Simone Bolelli: Bolelli at 2.72 Gicquel comes into this tournament with a bit of form on the courts, but I like the Italian at huge odds. Gicquel is ageing, he's not the sort of player who will relish five sets in the heat. He has a big serve and a big forehand but out of all the Italians on tour, I rate Bolelli the highest. He's got all the shots, it's just mentality that can let him down. He'll feel comfortable on a slower hard court. They've met twice and both have won once, Gicquel on an American hard court, Bolelli on clay. With this tie on a slower surface, I reckon it plays into the Italian's hands. Stamina will be a big factor in the heat and I reckon the Italian will pull through here. Bet strength: 3pts Feliciano Lopez vs Pablo Cuevas: Cuevas at 2.70 This is more of a hunch than anything else, but the Uruguayan has a chance here. Lopez is a good player but he prefers quicker surfaces than this and was completely dismantled in his only match of the year so far, a 6-1 6-4 to Richard Gasquet. Cuevas is, by trade, a clay court player, but I believe he's a player that can cause some damage to a guy like Lopez who won't enjoy a sparring battle from baseline. Lopez is higher ranked but I can see an upset here. Bet strength: 1pt That's my lot here. First day of the first round can be hit or miss sometimes, but there are some good bets out there. Hopefully we can take advantage of them here. Good luck to all, Atko Bit of a strange day with the rain playing a big factor. Massively disappointed with Stepanek, but fair play to big Ivo for winning it in five. As for Mardy Fish, he looked completely disinterested and unfit. In hindsight, I maybe should've left him alone. Still plenty of matches above to be played. I'll be back later to put Tuesday's picks up. Well done to all those who had winners :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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