Dave's Bets 2010

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 325sand Fantastic Cuix 0.5pt ew 14/1 BOG vc This is potentially a hot maiden including the well regarded Ships Biscuit and Fatanah but the selection went in my notebook last autumn when 4th to Aviate in a good kempton maiden 1/2L ahead of Ships Biscuit, who no doubt has come on bundles from debut. However Fantastic Cuix was a big backward 2yo, is bred for the step up to 10f and although holding no fancy entries should not be a 14/1 shot.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 910kemp Arrivederla 1pt win 17/2 vc unexposed 4yo filly with only 4 career runs in 3 months to June09 including 2 wins but not sent to the paddocks. Something obviously went wrong but goes well fresh, 3rd on debut by 1.5L, could be Listed Class and if trained on and fully wound up for return could be too good for these. Hughes 3 wins from 6 rides for Harry Dunlop in last year.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 750Hamilton Aldaado 0.5pt ew 11/1 BOG bet365, vc, stanjames First bet for ten days which I dont regret as wouldnt have made any money if I had put up the bets I was thinking about! Aldaado won off 69 at hamilton last june as a 3yo and carries only 2lb more today; had a seasonal opener a couple of weeks ago; Needs at least good ground and it is firming up and should hopefully be the firm side of good by this evening; Dodds just come into hot form with two winners at Chester yesterday.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 255notts Folly Bridge 0.5pt ew 11/1 BOG bet365, coral, hills (after 2 NRs) I put this up on seasonal debut last month, possibly needed run and Charlton had really not got going. Tenth that day in competatve newmarket hcp but only 2.75L behind winner and down a pound for that.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 250Worcester My Condor 0.5pt ew 10/1 sky, sportingbet Going really well lto when blundered last and faded to third. Very well handicapped on old form and does not find alot off bridle but usually a sound jumper. Not run for 173 days but won and second after 3-6 months breaks in the past. Wants good-firm ground and 10/1 is far too big a price. Forgot to mention the fantastic 11/1 winner yesterday!

[stewartd14]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010

255notts Folly Bridge 0.5pt ew 11/1 BOG bet365' date= coral, hills (after 2 NRs) I put this up on seasonal debut last month, possibly needed run and Charlton had really not got going. Tenth that day in competatve newmarket hcp but only 2.75L behind winner and down a pound for that.

:clap:clap Great shout Dave.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Results Update Thanks Stewart, I hope you were on todays selection. Well what a weekend-2 winners from 2 bets at 11/1 and 10/1 and now not far off 40% profit on turnover for the year. bets 72 wins 27 S/R 37.5% stakes 71pts profit 28.14pts ROI(yield) 39.6%

[fintron]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 good work this weekend Dave, 40 % for the year is top drawer :clap:clap:clap

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 750Southwell Fadhb Al Bith 1pt win 13/2 coral Off for nearly two years prior to return at track lto when ran well staying on for 3rd by 2.5l over 7f. Was rated 84 in Ireland and current mark is only 69 Sorry forgot to say thanks wayne for for your message.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 350yarm Fantastic Ciux 0.5pt ew 11/1 vc You may recall I put this up on seasonal debut lto and I was dissapointed in the run but I still believe this is a decent filly and can go close today against the Tregoning hotpot and then go on to contest decent handicaps.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 540War City Stable 1pt win 7/4 BOG paddypower Wouldnt usually put up one at this price in a handicap but I believe City Stable is very well handicapped as the comeback run in january, after a six month break, was the best speed figure of career, his mark having dropped from 77 to 52. A further four month break since but can go well fresh as shown lto and will take some stopping with a clear run.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 455york Bosses Destination 0.5pt ew 14/1 bog bet365 Two runs last year and third qualifying run for mark on 1st May all at 7f or less. Handicap debut today stepped up to 10f which should suit as Dubai Destination's and the dam's best over 8f+. Damside also far better on good to firm ground.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 310Ripon Solstice 0.5pt win 11/2 bog betfred, stanjames, hills; 0.5pt place betfair 2.06 (3 places) This is a decent horse on only her fourth run and perhaps suprisingly 3yos have a decent record taking on older horses in fillies handicaps in May. The step up in Class and taking on the elders could actually help Solstice's running style as she has travelled too free and the qucker pace may help nullify this. bets 76 wins 27 S/R 35.5% stakes 75pts profit 24.144pts ROI(yield) 32.2%

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 225ling Chincoteague 0.5pt ew 9/2 bog stanjames (also 9/2 sky) In my notebook from last year when it ran in two fast maidens, the second of which was particularly notable as the step back in trip from debut did not suit yet it split the first and second who both won nto. If fully wound up today it has every chance but I have gone each way as their are several potentialy good equally unexposed ones in the race. both previous runs on good and good to firm so the going will suit.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 910muss Lockantanks 0.5pt ew 10/1 bet365, tote, boyles, coral, paddypower Top speed figure on claimer win on poly; 3 runs in handicaps since all have excuses- hcp debut this prominent runner was held up; nto step up to 8f didnt stay; lto drop to 6f too short and dropped 8lb by handicapper since. Haynes just hit form with a win and a 2nd from 4 runners in last 3 days and has sent this up from bath-a long way for a night out!

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 430yarm City Stable 1pt win 9/4 bog bet365, coral, tote You may recall I put this up lto but the jok held the horse up and he needs to run prominent. Second on that day and due to go up 3lbs today i expect him to be near the pace and he has the best speed figures of these.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 640windsor Edition 0.5pt ew 14/1 bog tote 710windsor Anne of Kiev 1pt win 5/2 bog hills, coral etc 725thirsk Ingleby Lady 0.5pt ew 11/2 bet365, vc, paddypower Edition makes its hcp debut after 3 decent runs in maidens, the second of which was particularly notable. Has a speed figure only a few pounds below the more exposed runners and jeremy Gask remains in good form. Anne Of Kiev has been unlucky in her last couple of races being unable to find room for a run until too late-it is the nature of her running style but she is well handicapped bearing in mind on the same mark and lets hope Spencer keeps her off the rail in the straight. Ingleby King ran an excellent debut despite missing the break by several lengths, he travelled really well and the extra furlong is sure to help. Barron remains in good form and not concerned that second run comes after only 9 days as his record with maidens running within 20 days of debut since 2008 is 5 wins from 20 runners.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 RESULTS UPDATE Since the last update there have been 7 bets and although only one was first past the post 3 each way advices were placed and so only 3 net losers. Solstice in hindsight has probably been aimed at too high a level-often a danger when a small trainer gets a good horse. betfair place returned the stakes so nil profit/loss Chincoteague beat the three at the head of the market but beaten by 3 outsiders into 4th-ran well if a little one paced but can win stepped up another 2f in handicaps in due course. 1pt loss Lockantanks second by a head at 10/1. 0.5pt profit City Stable ran poorly. 1pt loss Edition blocked in on rail for over a furlong, switched wide and got up for second, can win a handicap off this mark, advised at 14/1-0.9pt profit Anne Of Kiev got the untroubled run I hoped for but suprisingly up the rail and proved how well handicapped she was, drifted out to 7/2-3.5pts profit Ingleby Lady the drift to 14/1 said it all, slowly away and held up at rear, pushed out hands and heels-her time will come. 1pt loss bets 83 wins* 30 S/R 36.1% stakes 82pts profit 26.044pts ROI(yield) 31.8% *wins include any ew bet where the place returns exceed the total win and place stakes.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 630bev Medici Palace 0.5pt ew 9/2 bog bet365, betfred 700bev Changing The Guard 1pt win 3/1 bog bet365 Medici Palace made a decent debut keeping on steadily from midfield but as with many from Cheveley Park was not over punished on first appearance and there is likely to be significant improvement to come. The Beverley hill should be an advantage as breeding says 10f will be needed before long. Changing The Guard Ran ok but faded from 2f out on seasonal debut lto but needed the run as stated by Fahey before the race. Rates top of speed figs and should now be spot on. The forecast light rain should be okay as has won on good ground

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Top figures Dave :clap

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 255Catterick Bold Marc 0.5pt ew 7/1 bog stanjames, tote Thanks South Eastern Ram. 2 wins in last 2 seasons both CD off 72 and 76 and today dropped to 73 after a couple of runs this season to get fit. Weymes just hit form with a 1-2 at ponty last night. Rain shouldnt matter as won on going from good to firm to soft. May be more selections later-keeping an eye on the weather.

[fintron]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 still going strong Dave, good luck with Bold Marc today :hope

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 445Haydock Crackentorp Thanks Wayne-Not been on the site a great deal cos have visitors doing shifts and I am not "free" til Friday. Have to move to Siberia then they wont want to visit! I was going to put up Crackentorp as I think it is a lightly raced one with lots of potential improvement and from a good look at the breeding should get the two miles but the changing ground is an uncertainty and Easterbys other runner Bollin Felix has lots of form at the trip with all but one career win on easy ground. Had a small ew on crackentorp but it is one to watch for the future if not today. Bold marc was a dissapointment but wont give up on it.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 550Nmkt Kings N dreams 0.5pt ew 12/1 bog hills, stanjames. 3 runs for a mark as 2yo last autumn; 2 runs this season better than bare form as trouble in running on seasonal debut and missed break badly lto keeping on in the final furlong over 7f on poly. Dropped 3lb as a result and stiff 7f at newmarket should be ideal. Trainers last runner won

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 530Goodwood Chincoteague 1pt win 9/2 bog hills 335Redcar Boss's Destination 1pt win bog 16/1 betfred 410redcar Changing The guard 0.5pt ew 8/1 bog bet365, hills Chinoteague I put up last time on seasonal debut having been in my notebook since last season,was still a bit green and short of pace. will get further but hopefully their will be a strong pace today and should come on for the run on hcp debut. Boss's Destination highly touted before start of season and unlikely to show best on seasonal debut too short/third run for mark or hcp debut when stepped up lto as Swinbanks dont usually win on first run in hcp. trainer 5 wins from last 25 runners and expect significant improvement off 2lb lower today as 2 wins and a second from the 3 who have come out of the race and all finished behind the selection on the day. Changing The Guard finished second despite not getting the strong pace it needs lto but hopefully will today.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 835Ffos Las Grand Slam Hero 1pt win 5/2 betfred bog Backed this lto when making debut for the Twiston-Davies yard after a break. Won easily and put up 12lb accordingly but that was over 2m4.5f, patently the wrong trip on previous form and rise should be negated by the step up to 3m tonight.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 650kemp Luc Jordan 1pt win 4/1 bog bet365, paddypower, hills etc 850kemp Rare Malt 0.2 ew Rare malt 25/1 bog tote, paddypower, stanjames, coral and 0.3pt ew Be A Devil 9/1 bog generally 810ripon Northern Dare 1pt win 6/1 bog generally Luc Jordan progressive last autumn with 3 wins on the bounce including CD on the second of those. May have needed seasonal debut lto and Cumani remains in hot form. Rare Malt in my notebook since last year when had 3 runs in 5 weeks to secure a mark all over 8f. poor run on return in another maiden when stepped up to 10f but will strip fitter for that on handicap debut over the same trip. dont like backing a trainer not in form but weaver has few runners so hard to assess. Be A Devil also in the book since last season when running well last back end with 3 2nds and a third. Seasonal return lto on turf anf too short a trip and should be spot on for return to 8f on poly. Northern Dare has also been in my notebook for sometime and has now dropped below last winning mark for first run for new yard and Fahey is well capable of getting the best out of one after a break. Missed the price as was 12/1 earlier

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 525eps citrus star 0.5pt ew 12/1 bog ladbrokes 710 don lady artemesia 1pt win 2/1 bog vc, betfred 825good ishraaqat 0.5pt ew 9/1 bog paddypower. Citrus Star went in my notebook last year and wheras Al Farahidi is top rated and justifiable fav the selections rating is based on 2yo form(7lb to find). Last autumn Cumani said this is one to follow this season. Lady Artemesia is close to top rated on my figures based on what it did in 09 and it made a very good seasonal debut lto, 2nd in a good race with more to come Ishraaqat made a notable debut with little pressure applied and I believe this is a very good filly who will come on for being a little green first time out

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 450Muss Antigua Sunrise 1pt win 5/2 bog Ladbrokes, hills, betfred Won 2 runs ago and the York hcp where 4th lto was a cracking race in a very fast time with 2 winners and 2 placed from the 6 who have run since. That was a Class2 0-105 and this is a big drop to 0-85 cls4. Only a 4yo with more improvement to come.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 830Windsor Saturn Way 1pt win 8/1 bog stanjames 900Windsor Vanilla Rum 1pt win 4/1 bet365, vc, stanjames. Saturn Way unexposed after off track for best part of a year until return lto when 2nd to Night Lily who re-opposes on 7lb worse terms, blocked on rail in straight and flew when clear, would have won in a few strides. Chamings in good form and suprisingly stalls 1-2 have a good strike rate over last few years here. Won maiden on soft so should be okay if expected rain arrives. Vanilla Rum along with hannon's Adventure Story is the least exposed in this classified stakes where 8 of the 11 runners have the same official mark and it has good figures-2nd lto to Dever Dream which came out and won hcp by 10L nto. Breeding indicates should handle the ground if it eases.