Dave's Bets 2010

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 205 chelt Reve De Sivola 12/1 BOG bet365 320 chelt Kalahari King 5/1 BOG bet365 400chelt Deutchland 9/1 bet365

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 sorry, they are all 0.25pt ew. back with bet365-best prices and you get the tv offer if any win ie a free bet on next C4 race!. Too busy to give reasons for these today and because its the festival I have reduced stakes.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 440chelt Sanctuaire 0.5pt ew 13/2 BOG, 5 places, bet365 Two runs in hurdles if France last autumn. Won ordinary novice on debut for Paul Nichols but running on strongly at the finish, unexposed and a lot more improvement to come.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 UPDATE In profit at The Festival at last if only for the time being! bets in 5 races so far- Get Me Out Of Here second in the opener and may well have won if Mcoy had not been impeded two out which cost him a length ot two. Reve De Sivola well backed from the 12/1 advised to 15/2, ran an excellent race to finish second to Peddlers Cross. Kalahari King under pressure from halfway, didn't run his race and did well to get third. Deutchland unplaced Sanctuaire advised at 13/2, backed in to 4/1fav and hacked up. Festival so far-bets advised 3.5pts, returns 6.625pts, profit 3.125pts. 2010- bets 45 wins 18* S/R 40% stakes 43.5pts profit 20.64pts ROI(yield) 47.4% *wins include placed horses in each way bets where the returns exceed the win and place stakes.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Takes some doing Dave - great stuff :clap

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 240chelt Poquelin 1pt wn 7/2 BOG bet365 Progressive 7yo chaser who will love the ground. has on or two pounds to find with a couple of these but possibly best figures over distance and course and further improvement expected.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 205 uttox Summery Justice 1pt win 7/2 BOG bet365, hills, ladbrokes, coral etc Won on seasonal and chase debut and now makes handicap bow. Unexposed yet still has nearly top rated figures with improvement to come. Thanks Stevet for your comments.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 500 uttox 1pt win Porta Vogie 5/2 bet365, betfred, stanjames Almost forgot, can't desert Porta after our fantastic win lto. But it's not just sentiment, if he runs as well today 8lb extra shouldn't stop him and I think there is even more improvement in him as he is a different horse with the new yard.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 510 Newcastle Nelson Du Ronceray 0.5pt ew 14/1 BOG stanjames (reformed market with 6 non runners) Has won in each of the last three years on its 3rd or 4th seasonal run in February/March. This is its 3rd run. Much better on very soft/heavy and the rains have come! 50+ days absence a worry [ missed 2 engagements in feb due to an abandoned meet and wrong ground] but wont get many chances for this ground as spring arrives.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 410kelso Strikemaster 0.5pt ew 6/1 BOG hills, betfred, ladbrokes, vc This season has had 2 runs on AW to get fit and in between made handicap hurdles debut over 2m at Mussleburgh when ran a decent race, fourth to Orsipppus, over what was plainly the wrong trip for a horse who gets 2m on the flat. Step up today to 2m61/2f. Goes on all ground so rain not a problem. Yard in hot form.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 510southwell Marino Prince 0.5pt ew 11/2 hills, bet365, vc Improved dramatically lto for move to new yard. should have won but jok took it to easy approaching final hurdle thinking he was on the winner and failing to notice horse staying on on outside; tried to roust horse in front of hurdle and it fell. Its not often the handicapper puts one up 5lb for falling!

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 920KEMP Jessica Wigmo 0.5pt ew 6/1 BOG vc, bet365, paddyp Last 3 wins at track off 50, 54 and 50 between feb-april. On 47 today. Jok , who takes off a handy 5lb, has ridden on 3 of last 4 wins but has not been on for last 7 runs. Worst draw in box 1 but won CD from identical draw in one of above wins and as a hold up horse should be ok. Is better off with the fav despite being 2L in front of when they last met.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 740wolv Jennys Pride 0.5pt ew 20/1 BOG vc, paddyp , stanjames Given a mark of 56 after winning a seeler on third run last summer and now down to 47. The step up by 1.5f is the key to improvement tonight.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 440strat Vics World 0.5pt ew 5/1 vc, betfred Ran well, 2nd, on 15th March over 2m3f, too short a trip and will be well suited by todays 2m7f. Goes on most ground but better with some ease. Has good form in 3m points on soft/heavy-a win and 2 places. May be more bets later. Current run of 4 losers worst since thread commenced but I dont think some of them were trying too hard and hopefully we will catch them in the near future. Will update results over weekend.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 600kemp Blue Zephyr 0.5pt ew 12/1 BOG lads, hills, coral, vc Leg problems after debut april09 and not seen again until january. ran well giving impression will be better over 6f. had 2 runs since and although dissapointed lto all 4 career runs at 5f. Today up to 6f for hcp debut for Muir who has had 3 wins from 4 runners in the last week. Will update results for month end in next day or so.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 350Kemp Vitznau 0.5pt ew 8/1BOG lads, hills, betfred, sjames You may recall I put Vitznau up when he won with something in hand on seasonal debut two runs ago. Better on polytrack than turf and at this track. Won this race two years ago off the same mark. Good draw 15 of 16. may put up another bet if so will be in the next hour.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 350kelso Nelson Du Ronceray 0.5pt ew 11/1 BOG vc I put this up lto at 14/1 backed into 7/1 and stayed on from well off pace to get 3rd, nearest at finish. Has won on 3rd/4th seasonal run in feb/March for last 3 years, today 4th run is a little late in season but missed some earlier engagements due to the freeze u . Big step up in trip from 2m to 3m1f but if it gets the distance can win.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Nelson Du Ronceray-non runner Results Update- Results since the Cheltenham Festival have been dissapointing with only 3.9pts returned from 11pts staked for a loss of 7.1pts. But this for me, the crossover period between the jumps and flat seasons, is not one of my favourite times for betting. I expect profits to pick up as the flat gets into stride. Still I suppose on the 1st of Jan I would have settled for a 35% strike rate and 25% profit. bets 56 win 20 S/R 35.7% stakes 54.5pts profit 13.54pts ROI(yield) 24.8%

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 450Pontefract Maid In Heaven 0.5pt ew 5/1 BOG vc In my notebook since debut run last year, staying on strongly from way off the pace over 7f at 40/1. Swinburn in form and record with 3yo maidens on their second/third run after a break since Jan09 is 4/21. step down from 7f to 6 a slight concern but the ability of an inexperienced horse to get the extra furlong up the ponty hill no bad thing. trainer just been interviewed on ATR and cofirmed horse does not lack for speed.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 535kemp Bobs Dreamflight 0.5pt ew 15/2 BOG tote, vc 555newmkt Folly Bridge 0.5pt ew 12/1 BOG bet365, betfred, vc, paddypower, hills 635Kemp Milnagavie 0.5pt ew 7/1 sportingbet Bobs Dreamflight produced its best speed fig lto and is on a career low mark. It could have won if not lost position when shuffled back at halfway when had to be switched and stayed on well to get second. Folly Bridge won well on second run at 2 but dissapointed on its third and final run last year in a conditions race but was 14lb wrong at the weights with Fremen who was 8L behind Red Jazz in the Free Handicap earlier on todays card. Folly did not quite get the 7f and will be better at a quick 6f up the stiff Newmarket final furlong. Milnagavie ran very well on debut last year but then had 2 mediocre runs however they were all at 8f a trip it was never going to win at, two of its three siblings and two of the second dams progeny won over 1m4f or more in their early 3yo campaigns and the sire was third in the Derby. Has the Cecil hot pot to beat.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Results Update Maid In Heaven as expected needed every yard of the uphill finish at Ponty to get up on the line. This type of winner, a horse put in the notebook many months earlier, gives me the most satisfaction. 3pts profit Bobs Dreamflight ran well to get third but may only be fairly handicapped as he had the run of the race following close to the pace. 0.438pt profit. Folly Brook ran a good race but ended 10th yet less than three lengths off the winner-typical of a big field class 2 handicap. Charlton not yet hit form so I think this can win a race in the near future off this mark. 1pt loss. Milnagavie ran very poorly and the opposite of Maid In Heaven, in the notebook but may not have trained on from its 2yo season. 1pt loss. bets 60 wins 22 S/R 36.6% stakes 58.5pts profit 14.978pts ROI(yield) 25.6%

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 355chelt sangfroid 0.5pt ew 10/1 BOG ladbroke A system bet for microsystems lto when kept on for second on unsuitable ground over 2m7f at uttoxeter. Officially soft the going was desperate and expect major improvement today as both flat and hurdles wins came on GF. Will get the 3m at Cheltenham.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 520newmarket Tamaathul 0.5pt ew 3/1 BOG ladbrokes, tote, betfred, coral Stoute has obviously planned an early season handicap for Official Style with 3 runs in 6 weeks in the autumn at patently the wrong trip however Tamaathul comes to this race with by far the best figures and after only 2 runs providing he has trained on may be a decent class horse who we will not see in handicaps after today. Also sure to be better at 3yo for the step up from 7 to 10f I dont expect it to be out of the three. Although going ew at 3/1 will lose 12.5% of the stake if placed I think this is the right way to bet this race with so many potential unexposed improvers in the line up.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Results Update Sangfroid stayed on for third having again been outpaced. I suspect this was a slowly run race but as the horse needs a fast pace which is far from certain in staying races over this trip I am unlikely to back this again in the near future. Advised at 10/1 at Ladbrokes prices there was a 25p deduction-profit 0.438pt Tamathuul The first three home are probably better than handicappers but nothing would have beaten the winner who must be group class. At least the ew bet meant only a small loss of 0.125pt bets 62 wins 23 S/R 37.1% stakes 60.5pts profit 15.29pts ROI(yield) 25.3%

[mileni4uk]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Good going, mate. Keep it up :ok

[fintron]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 great thread dave :ok

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 450newb Fair Trade 1pt win 11/4 BOG 625Don Lady Artemisa 1pt win 5/1 BOG generally, Aphrodesia 0.5pt win 5/1 tote, coral Thanks Mileni and Wayne. Fair Trade has a really good rating for one run at 2 and assuming it has trained on it will take a good one to beat it although I appreciate there may well be one or two good uns lurking here! Lady Artemisia and Aphrodesia are both in my notebook and I am dissapointed they are in the same race. Forget Lady A's last run on unsuitable ground, her penultimate run is good enough to win this and she got in all sorts of trouble in running. The move to Botti may bring further improvement and not worried about the break as his record with runners after a 90+ days off in 09/10 is 27%! Aphrodesia, how can we put this, is capable of more than the bare result of last 2 runs and won this last year.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 335thirsk Interdiamonds 0.5pt ew 7/1 stanjames consistant overall on debut season as 3yo last year, 6 2nds and 1 win from 9 runs yet has dropped 2lb from top mark. Drop in Class, last 2 runs in 85 cls4 and 90 cls3, today cls5 75. Has top speed fig (just) and may have a bit more improvement as relatively unexposed. Not worried about the break as was 2nd on debut.

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Results Update Interdiamonds travelled well but faded from 2f out. Dont think the horse has regressed and may have needed the run. 1pt loss Fair Trade Well as expected I think there were one or two other good'uns in the race but not as good as the selection. Advised at 11/4 and backed in to 15/8, still ran a little green and more to come after only two career runs. 2.75pts profit. Lady Artemisia/Aphrodisia First and second but in the wrong order from the perspective of maximising my personal betting. I said I was unhappy the two notebook horses were in the same race! Still the winner drifted to 9/1 and both recommended bookies offer BOG! 1.5pts staked, 5pts returns for a 3.5pt profit. Overall not a bad day at the office! bets 65 wins 25 S/R 38.4% stakes 64pts profit 20.54pts ROI(yield) 32.1%

[Dave in The Lakes]

Re: Dave's Bets 2010 705uttox vics world 1pt win BOG 11/4 tote, bet365, betfred, hills Been waiting for this to step up to this sort of trip. Obvious concern that fallen twice but also two seconds in last four runs. Hope slower pace of staying race and small field will help to eliminate jumping errors because if it jumps a clean round I think it will win. 230Bev Deauville Flyer 0.6pt win 4/1 BOG generally; 0.2pts ew The Oil Magnate 12/1 BOG coral, stanjames Deauville Flyer was progressive last year and has more to offer as a 4yo. Run over various trips and 1m4f could be a little short nowadays but a fast pace is likely and with the Beverley hill coming in to play it should be there at the finish. Another who will be suited by these conditions althoug unproven on the going is The Oil Magnate. Not seen for 582 days when it won over CD. I backed it that day and it needed every yard on the easier ground but the faster pace today may make this a test. Why did I back it 2 years ago? I had double glazing installed two months earlier and the fitters young assistant had been with his mates on a stable tour when the trainer said it was one to watch out for! I thought nothing of it until I spotted it on the day, checked the form and thought yes this could win. backed it at 20/1 in the morning and it paid for the double glazing-I suppose its what they call A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY!:lol