Dave in The Lakes Posted January 2, 2010 Share Posted January 2, 2010 Thought I would start a thread for my bets in 2010. This is an attempt to refine my betting as I have a tendency to put small stakes on decent price winners and big bets on shorter priced losers! Hopefully in putting selections in print so to speak I will give them a little more thought, the plan being to eliminate or at least drastically reduce what for want of a better phrase I would call "interest bets". Apart from throwing the odd tenner at a 50/1 shot I should not be having such bets-As far as I am concerned if a horse is worth backing from now on it has to be worthy of a decent stake and I dont want to be put off by the price being too big! Inevitably there will be some bets I wont be able to post such as those I put on just before the off or if I am away from my PC. This thread will not include any bets produced for my systems thread unless I would also have been backing them for other reasons in which event they will appear on both threads. The records will all be to 1pt win, 0.5pt ew or 1pt place and at the prices I have taken. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 2, 2010 Share Posted January 2, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Best of luck, mate! I always try to go level stakes, however, if the horse is too short, I won't back it as a single but just include it in doubles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 2, 2010 Author Share Posted January 2, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Didn't have a bet yesterday so here we go for 2010! 305 Southwell Onceaponatime 0.5pt win 3/1 Lads, 0.5 place betfair 1.92 335 Southwell king of Rhythym 0.5pt win 5.18 and 0.5pt place 2.15 betfair Onceaponatime has been running well recently without getting his head in front including a 3rd and 2nd from 2 runs at the track in the last couple of months both from wide draws. However he can race prominently as when winning at Wolver at the end of October and drawn 3 today I expect him to be closer to the pace and from where he should go close. King of Rhythym won well lto in a classified race, is only up 2lb today and remains well handicapped. he was drawn even wider than todays 9 box for that win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 2, 2010 Author Share Posted January 2, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Thanks Jay. Does seem strange going "public" with my bets after all these years-it does make me think a little more about what I am doing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam_P Posted January 2, 2010 Share Posted January 2, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Hi Dave, i am going to do something similar aswell hoping to discipline my betting! Goodluck :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayalexander Posted January 2, 2010 Share Posted January 2, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 I think discipine is the key to being a semi-successful punter. My bets were all over the place prior to the start of the year! Now I just focussing on a few distances, at a few tracks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 2, 2010 Share Posted January 2, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 good luck with it Dave :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cc75 Posted January 2, 2010 Share Posted January 2, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 best of luck dave - I am going to have a go at putting up a thread at some point soon too (place bets though). Bon chance :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tedthewolf Posted January 2, 2010 Share Posted January 2, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Best of Luck Dave:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diamond1924 Posted January 2, 2010 Share Posted January 2, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 good luck Dave :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lars Posted January 2, 2010 Share Posted January 2, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Good luck :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted January 3, 2010 Share Posted January 3, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Glad to see you started your own thread Dave, I'm sure it will be a success. All the best :ok Bill Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 3, 2010 Author Share Posted January 3, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Thanks guys for your good wishes. Yesterday Oncaponatime ran really well taking it up in the straight and getting caught close home-second/1L. King of Rhythym was heavily backed, an sp of 2/1-half the price I obtained, but ran very poorly. Part of the reason for the thread is to learn by my mistakes and reinforce what I do right and so from time to time I am going to provide a commentry of my thoughts in this respect under the heading LEARNT TODAY. LEARNT TODAY Even more convinced that you wont win long term at SP-Have to take early prices. I am greedy-I could have laid off my second bet for a free 2/1 bet. If I can be convinced that most of my bets will end up much shorter I will have to consider putting on larger stakes and laying off. This game is not just about enhancing profit at one end of the equasion but also reducing losses at the other! Will put todays bets up, if any, later. Bets 2 wins 0 Profit -1.06 Bank 98.94 For the record I will be deducting 5% commission from all betfair returns to provide a true net position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 3, 2010 Author Share Posted January 3, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 235kemp Hereford Boy 0.5pt win 17/2 sporting bet,VC. 0.5pt place 2.94 Betfair been following Istiqdam but a 9lb rise may stop him. Mister green has good speed figure lto and money for him already. However Hereford Boy has seen a new lease of life since stepping up to 7-8f inc a CD win 2 runs ago and as a hold up horse the draw should not inconvenience him. All the other runners can run prominent but they dont in the main front run so I hope there is no battle for the lead as a very fast pace may find hereford boy out becuause 8f is the limit of his stamina. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 3, 2010 Author Share Posted January 3, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 After todays winner drifting the question is should I use BOG in compiling my results? As I said in my first post today I want to show my true net position ie including deducting betfair commission and so as my independent bookie gives me BOG on all bets at best oddschecker prices using BOG is what I get on all my bets (excluding exchange bets of course). I see most other threads use BOG so I will unless the majority object-let me know if you have a view. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 3, 2010 Share Posted January 3, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Nice winner Dave :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 3, 2010 Author Share Posted January 3, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Thanks mate. With regards to my earlier question I think on reflection i will use BOG from now on but not for todays winner as I did not mention it in the post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billy the punter Posted January 3, 2010 Share Posted January 3, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 I found, for the most part, it's taking 0.5pt/1pt less and advise the BOG prices. The half points I lose are more than mopped up by the points I gain when tipping a winning drifter. I think you're right to go down thw BOG route. Nice winner mate. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 3, 2010 Share Posted January 3, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 I found, for the most part, it's taking 0.5pt/1pt less and advise the BOG prices. The half points I lose are more than mopped up by the points I gain when tipping a winning drifter. I think you're right to go down thw BOG route. Nice winner mate. :ok I go down this route also Billy unless the bookie is offering at least 2-4 pts more than the BOG price :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuSimmy Posted January 3, 2010 Share Posted January 3, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Nice winner today :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted January 3, 2010 Share Posted January 3, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Just watched the replay Dave - swept down the outside :clap cracker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted January 3, 2010 Share Posted January 3, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 235kemp Hereford Boy 0.5pt win 17/2 sporting bet' date=VC. 0.5pt place 2.94 Betfair been following Istiqdam but a 9lb rise may stop him. Mister green has good speed figure lto and money for him already. However Hereford Boy has seen a new lease of life since stepping up to 7-8f inc a CD win 2 runs ago and as a hold up horse the draw should not inconvenience him. All the other runners can run prominent but they dont in the main front run so I hope there is no battle for the lead as a very fast pace may find hereford boy out becuause 8f is the limit of his stamina. knew it wouldn't be long til you were on the scoresheet :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 3, 2010 Author Share Posted January 3, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Well chuffed and thanks for all your messages. I couldnt belive the price-on my main personal bet I got 12/1 via BOG although the 9.6 I took on betfair now looks a little thin! LEARNT TODAY BOG! BOG! BOG! BOG! RESULTS I may not update the results every day but as we have moved into profit this is one day that I will! today 1pt staked-returns 6.17pts profit 5.17 pts bets 3 wins 1 staked 3pts profit 4.11pts bank 104.11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 4, 2010 Author Share Posted January 4, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 505wolv Laylas Lad 10/1 bet365 BOG 1pt win Stepped up in trip for hcp deb lto at southwel after 3 runs on poly. Got trip but didnt handle track back on poly at same distance worth a chance at the prices but could be a dog so not going ew and only 2 places with 7 runners. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cc75 Posted January 4, 2010 Share Posted January 4, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Well done yesterday Dave :clap :hope today :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 4, 2010 Author Share Posted January 4, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 155wolv Bawaardi 5/2 corals 1pt win Running well of late without getting head in front but this a drop in class-last 2 races cls4 0-85 & 0-87 this cls5 0-75. Lee topliss an improving claimer worth his 5lb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 4, 2010 Author Share Posted January 4, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Laylas Lad ran a lot better for the return to poltrack but faded in the final 100yds. The drop in class and the handy joks allowance enabled Bawaardi to win and although Lee Topliss hit the front too early in the straight he was able to hang on. stakes 2pts returns 3.5pts profit 1.5pts bets 5 wins 2 S/R 40% staked 5pts profit 5.61pts Bank 105.61pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 5, 2010 Author Share Posted January 5, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 No bet today There are 3 horses which were of interest but for various reasons I am not playing- 110south Ambrogina-I think this will prove to be the best horse in this race and will have a future this season at a low grade. A big horse may still need track experience and unsure if considerable step back to 6f from 8f will suit. 240 seaquel-run lto implies yet another step up will suit and money for this morning but there is nothing in the breeding to suggest this staying trip and could just be its a slow horse which does nothing quick. 210south Borasco-thrown in on old form but no form over 8f on a slow track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 5, 2010 Author Share Posted January 5, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 Analysis- Ambrogina got up in final stride. As I suspected this trip a little short for her-one to note for a step up in trip in handicap company nto. Borasco a good second, deserves a win probably stepped down back to 7f. Seaquel fell after 2f so we didn't gain any clues but at least the jok and horse seemed to be okay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave in The Lakes Posted January 7, 2010 Author Share Posted January 7, 2010 Re: Dave's Bets 2010 310southwell Bestowed 0.5 pt bfr 4.9 0.5pt 3 places bfr 1.68 I have been following this horse and the big question is will it handle the southwell surface having only run on good/good firm and poly. I generally dont like betting horses without form here as it is a unique surface. However the sire is Kyllachy, a Pivotal colt both of whoms progeny have excellent records on ground with ease and at the track. Out of a french mare, who usually handle ease, with 3 of the half brother Perfect Stars wins coming on soft/good to soft I think it should be okay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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