My Unders System

[Danthepunter]

Re: My Unders System Palaceman well done on another profitbale weekend (whatever tonight result is ) . Keep it up :ok Will you be posting midweek picks ?

[palaceman]

Re: My Unders System Thanks Dan. As the starting point for my system is Paul's ratings, I am entirely in his hands as to whether or not I can make midweek selections. At the time of writing, he hasn't yet produced them. If he does so tonight, I will be able to make my predictions for tomorrow. Otherwise not, as I'll be leaving home tomorrow early morning and not be returning till after midnight (from the Palace game). Bit of a disappointing conclusion to our weekend in tonight's match. This left the final outcome as follows: Hull 2.34 (Canbet) :cry Sunderland 1.85 (Bet 365) :clap Liverpool 2.29 (Bet 365) :cry Coventry 1.83 (Paddy P) :clap Ipswich 1.96 (Ladbrokes) :clap Leicester 1.8 (Bet 365) :clap Watford 1.92 (Ladbrokes) :clap WBA 2.2 (Blue Sq) :cry Staked: 80 points Profit: 13.6 points. __________________ Running Totals: Staked: 1920 points Wins: 111 (57.81%) Losses: 81 Profit: 203.03 Yield: 10.57% Closing Bank: 403.03

[Mr Bookie Buster]

Re: My Unders System Well done on your success this week again Palaceman...once again, very impressive. I am curious....in your paper trials last year, did you find that your percentage success rate dropped as the season neared an end? I wonder if some teams becoming more desperate and other teams not caring would have an impact on the amount of goals scored...

[palaceman]

Re: My Unders System Thanks mate. And you raise a very pertinent question. It's a subject I have studied in some detail over the years. There is no doubt that as the season draws to a close, there are some games that would have been unders earlier in the season, that don't turn out to be so. I have identified two reasons in partiicular. 1. Teams that might have settled for a draw in other circumstances, find it's worth taking the extra risk and pressing for a win because they need the three points rather than one. This more attacking mentality can affect teams at either end of the table, who need the points for differing reasons. And the resulting more risky approach can lead to a goal at either end. 2. Defenders become more mentally tired as the season wears on, and don't concentrate quite as well. Furthermore, players are sometimes less inclined to make a challenge that might risk injury, or bust a gut to get back and cover, if the result of a match (or one further goal in a match they are already losing 2-0) is going to have little consequence. The upshot of all this is that I will call "time" on the system before we get to that stage. Probably we have only 2-3 more weeks of it.

[wettspou]

Re: My Unders System I might have another reason in my mind but I'm not sure how to quantify that in terms of a model. But I find it possible that Hometeams placed safely within the table (eg. no chance of euroleague and no risk of relegation) playing against other safely placed Teams that are usually playing a defensive style at home, might want to offer their audience one last spectacle in turn for their strict defensive style within the whole season. So maybe the last home-game of defensive teams in a season that have no chances of altering their league-position daramtically could be a the matter of some research? Just a badly phrased idea i suppose :)

[palaceman]

Re: My Unders System I think that's very possible wettspou, although probably only in their last one or two home matches. By that time, the other two reasons have probably operating for a few weeks. :ok

[palaceman]

Re: My Unders System There are 10 selections for the weekend. We will need 6 winners to be succesful. They are the matches at: Aston Villa 2.0 (Stan J) Wigan 1.92 (Canbet) Doncaster 1.8 (Bet365) Notts F 1.96 (Betfair) Scunthorpe 1.85 (Bet365) Sheff Wed 1.86 (Betfair) Cardiff 1.96 (Ladbrokes) Darlington 1.91 (W Hill) Hereford 1.91 (W Hill) Rotherham 1.86 (Ladbrokes) :hope for a week without those late goals :hope

[Mr Bookie Buster]

Re: My Unders System Thanks for your selections Palaceman - One question...How come you never bet on the Conf or the Scottish Prem considering that Paul provides stats for those. The under odds in the Scottish Prem generally tend to be extremely low and I therefore understand that they would not fit into your system, however, the under's odds in the Conf are generally 1.80 or above, from what I can see. Maybe you have noticed something about the consistency in these divisions?

[palaceman]

Re: My Unders System

Thanks for your selections Palaceman - One question...How come you never bet on the Conf or the Scottish Prem considering that Paul provides stats for those. The under odds in the Scottish Prem generally tend to be extremely low and I therefore understand that they would not fit into your system, however, the under's odds in the Conf are generally 1.80 or above, from what I can see. Maybe you have noticed something about the consistency in these divisions?

I have researched both, and am continuing to do so. From the research to date, I wouldn't include the Scots Prem, but am likely to include the Conference next season :ok

[hoskinator]

Re: My Unders System I'm was curious to see what the percentage of matches under 2.5 said about the matches predicted I looked at the number of matches with these teams having less than 2.5 goals villa under 2.5 = 71% wolves under 2.5 = 42% average = 56 percent matches under 2.5 wigan under 2.5 = 66% burnley away under 2.5 = 33% I'm was curious to see what the percentage of matches under 2.5 said about the matches predicted villa under 2.5 = 71% wolves under 2.5 = 42% average = 49.5 percent matches under 2.5 scunthorpe under = 41% plymouth = 50% combined average 45.5 shef wed = 44% derby = 33% predicted average = 38.5% chance of the match being under 2.5 doncaster = 61% shef utd = 38% combined average = 49.5 of finishing under 2.5 goals they all seem pretty close. these of course don't take into account what teams are playing each other, even team might score less goals and top teams playing bottom teams might produce more goals?

[palaceman]

Re: My Unders System Interesting stats, hoskinator. I'm very grateful for the time and trouble you put into them. Everybody will have a different opinion on this type of thing, but those stats omit two factors which I believe to be very important. 1. Your stats represent each team's performances in all matches, from the start of the season. However, I believe it is recent form that is all important. I don't factor in, or take any notice of, how a team performed last August. 2. Your stats do not differentiate between home and away matches, which IMHO is all important. Teams can play entirely differently at home than they do away. What I am interested in is the home form of the home team and the away form of the away team. The fact that the home team might always achieve an "under" when playing away is of no great interest to me. Incidentally, I won't put up the results yet, as we still have a match to come tomorrow. But whatever the result of that match, I'm pleased to say we are already guaranteed a profitable weekend.

[addhesive]

Re: My Unders System Yes, congratulations on another profitable week Palaceman. Dave :D

[palaceman]

Re: My Unders System Thanks Dave. Tomorrow, Cardiff 2 Watford 0 would do very nicely, both for the system and for Palace :hope

[wettspou]

Re: My Unders System A very nice System you have running there I must say :clap

[palaceman]

Re: My Unders System Thanks wettspou. Very kind of you to say so. As I explained a few posts back, it's probably coming towards the end of its shelf-life for this season. Unfortunately Watford's defence capitulated in the second half today and let us (but not Palace) down, otherwise it would have been a more successful weekend. Still, a profit is a profit. Aston Villa 2.0 (Stan J) :cry Wigan 1.92 (Canbet) :clap Doncaster 1.8 (Bet365) :clap Notts F 1.96 (Betfair) :clap Scunthorpe 1.85 (Bet365) :cry Sheff Wed 1.86 (Betfair) :clap Cardiff 1.96 (Ladbrokes) :cry Darlington 1.91 (W Hill) :cry Hereford 1.91 (W Hill) :clap Rotherham 1.86 (Ladbrokes) :clap Staked: 100 points Profit: 13.1 points. __________________ Running Totals: Staked: 2020 points Wins: 117 (57.92%) Losses: 85 Profit: 216.13 Yield: 10.70% Closing Bank: 416.13

[ofcourseitwas]

Re: My Unders System hey, nice work Palaceman! :clap I'm assuming you use a system to select your matches based on a certain criteria? Have you used this criteria in other leagues as well? If so, what results have you gotten?

[palaceman]

Re: My Unders System

hey, nice work Palaceman! :clap I'm assuming you use a system to select your matches based on a certain criteria? Have you used this criteria in other leagues as well? If so, what results have you gotten?

Thanks pal. I haven't used the criteria in other leagues, but I did begin paper trailing them this year. Unfortunately due to time constraints, I didn't keep it up, other than the Scots Prem and the Conference. The latter is looking promising

[palaceman]

Re: My Unders System And we have 5 midweek selections this week. So, we'll need 3 to come up trumps. They are the matches at: Aston Villa 2.05 (W Hill) QPR 1.8 (Ladbrokes) Cardiff 1.81 (Betfair) Sheff Wed 1.82 (Ladbrokes) Rotherham 1.95 (Betfair) Betfair prices are with commission already deducted. :hope everyone

[hoskinator]

Re: My Unders System these statistics are based on home and away records of the teams involved and not the overall records the home team are on the top and they are the team specified in the selections the higher the percentage, the more likely the match is going to be under 2.5 goals (because the percentage is the number of games they have scored less than 2.5 goals in a match) as noted these system uses all of this seasons results where as the secret formula used to pick the unders for these thread I believe takes recent form into account. I am only putting this information here because I use this information when betting on unders but my system is completely untested and most probably less profitable than the excellent system used on this thread of which I have been interestingly following the last 3 months and am a big fan off. the percentages villa under 2.5 = 66% sunderland under 2.5 = 57% combined average = 61.5% QPR under 2.5 = 44% Derby under 2.5 = 63% combined average = 55% Sheff Wed = 47% watford = 50% combined average = 48.5% cardiff = 66% sheff utd = 42% combined average = 54% rotherham = 55% Macclesfield= 55% combined average = 55% whilst looking at the long term season averages for these games I noticed a couple of others bradford = 64% dagenham = 66% combined average = 65% Ipswich Town = 73% Plymouth Argyle = 47% Blackpool = 42% Swansea City = 84% combined average = 63% Nottm Forest = 57% Crystal Palace = 77% combined average = 67% I have been thinking of the weighting of recent form so had a peek at the stats for the last 8 games there were a few which have been scoring under 2.5 for most of their last 8 games under 2.5, this excludes home and away form and just looks at the last 8 games of each team +2.5 -2.5 -2.5 +2.5 3 5 Blackpool Swansea City 8 0 0 8 Bury Aldershot Town 6 2 1 7 Macclesfield Cheltenham Town 6 2 apologies for hijacking this excellent thread but it took me off investigating the matches

[palaceman]

Re: My Unders System There's no need to apologise at all, hoskinator. I welcome anyone with comments on the subject matter of the thread. That's what a forum is all about. Your stats are very interesting - and encouraging. They suggest we have a more than 50% chance of getting the under in 4 of the 5 matches. Let's hope you are right :ok

[palaceman]

Re: My Unders System 3 wins out of 5 in the weekend games for a small profit. Once again it could have been better but for late goals. Both the losers were 1-1 going into the last 10 mins. Rotherham got a penalty (apparently very controversial) with 9 minutes to go, and Sheff Wed won in the 89th minute. Still, as I've said before, a profit is a ...... Aston Villa 2.05 (W Hill) :clap QPR 1.8 (Ladbrokes) :clap Cardiff 1.81 (Betfair) :clap Sheff Wed 1.82 (Ladbrokes) :cry Rotherham 1.95 (Betfair) :cry Staked: 50 points Profit: 6.6 points. __________________ Running Totals: Staked: 2070 points Wins: 120 (57.97%) Losses: 87 Profit: 222.73 Yield: 10.76% Closing Bank: 422.73

[hoskinator]

Re: My Unders System I was looking at games with low scoring predicted and I think why your system is good is because it chooses the games with good value odds and not just likely to be under 2.5 goals picking unders is a good idea because most people betting on over/under are picking overs I guess because unders are not very sexy, a bit like people mostly only bet on teams winning. I think this results in better odds for the unders as the bookies try to balance up the bets any choices for this weekend?

[palaceman]

Re: My Unders System

I was looking at games with low scoring predicted and I think why your system is good is because it chooses the games with good value odds and not just likely to be under 2.5 goals

Thanks mate. As I explained in the very opening post, that is the key to my whole approach. I am sure I could achieve a higher win ratio than the current 58% if I included seemingly "obvious" unders that are offered at very low prices. But a proportion of these would still be incorrect predictions, and the paltry odds on those that were correct would not make up for the losses on the ones that were incorrect. So looking for the value bets is, I'm sure, the best way forward, even if it means the win ratio is slightly lower that it might be if I took a different approach. This weekend's selections will follow shortly. I'm just working on them.

[hoskinator]

Re: My Unders System do you use an particular site or automate your method of looking at the odds for your potential unders I have just answered my own question, well sort of I have just found out the excellent Football data site, offers odds for the weekend matches. It has win, draw, lose odds and under over. http://www.football-data.co.uk/matches.php and I saw on a different thread some code to automatically download the excel files and import them into excel, which is here if anyone is interested in that kind of thing http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/total-corner-spreads-holy-grail-261-bets-25-yield-80745/index16.html#post1459865

[palaceman]

Re: My Unders System Just seven selections this weekend. Please note the Sheff U match is Sunday and the Man C match is Monday. We will need 4 to be correct to make a profit. These will be either the penultimate or the final weekend selections this season.The games are at the following venues: Man C 2.12 (Canbet) Peterboro 1.85 (Betfair) Plymouth 1.825 (Bet365) Watford 1.825 (Bet365) Sheff U 1.92 (Canbet) Bury 1.8 (Betfair) Chesterfield 1.85 (Sportingbet) :hope everyone.

[hoskinator]

Re: My Unders System The Man City doesn't look that good but that is why the odds are so tasty and the way Man C have been playing, I could easily see less than 3 goals these are all looking pretty good and good value. Fingers crossed Manchester City Wigan Athletic 50.00 26.67 38 Plymouth Argyle Blackpool 66.67 52.63 59 Watford Middlesbrough 44.44 47.37 45 Peterborough Bristol City 31.58 63.16 47 Sheffield Utd Scunthorpe Utd 63.16 36.84 50 Bury Aldershot Town 61.11 44.44 52 Chesterfield Hereford 55.56 50.00 52

[palaceman]

Re: My Unders System Once again, what looked like it was going to be a very profitable weekend turned into just a small profit from late goals. With just 18 minutes to go in the Man City game tonight the score was still 0-0, and a winner at a big price seemed certain. Wigan were down to 10 men by this stage, and couldn't cope with Mr Tevez who chipped in 3 late goals. Very disappointing. Still, however small, a profit is a..... Man C 2.12 (Canbet) :wall Peterboro 1.85 (Betfair) :clap Plymouth 1.825 (Bet365) :clap Watford 1.825 (Bet365) :clap Sheff U 1.92 (Canbet) :clap Bury 1.8 (Betfair) :cry Chesterfield 1.85 (Sportingbet) :cry Staked: 70 points Profit: 4.2 points. __________________ Running Totals: Staked: 2140 points Wins: 124 (57.94%) Losses: 90 Profit: 226.93 Yield: 10.60% Closing Bank: 426.93

[addhesive]

Re: My Unders System Still a good result Palaceman. I regularly trade the in-play games and last night was a beauty on that score. The in-play lay price for the unders was 1.14 mark when that first goal came and having got the under at 3.2 and started trading out at 1.8 I was in a position to actually back the over 2.5 without spending all the profits on the under side....(I really couldn't see there being no goals in the game). The first goal pushed the price out to 1.3. the second goal had it out to 2's. It has been a lot of fun following your selections this season Palaceman and I have made some money along the way....what more could we ask for? Thank you. Dave

[palaceman]

Re: My Unders System That's very kind, Dave. And that was some excellent trading. I think we were genuinely unlucky to concede 3 goals in that match. Apparently the straight red card (at 0-0) was harsh. That third goal makes such a difference, turning what would have been a healthy total profit of 25.4 into a miserly 4.2. That's why it is getting very close to the end of the system for the season. At this time of the season clubs change their tactics late in the game. Having gone 1-0 up against 10 men last night, earlier in the season City might have settled for holding on to what they had, but the potential importance of goal difference encouraged them to go for more. The other two losers both ended 1-2, in each case with the final goal coming in the last 10 minutes, when defenders are perhaps not concentrating quite as well towards this stage of the season.

[addhesive]

Re: My Unders System Yes just like the change of seasons from jumps to flat etc.....pity it comes at the same time at the end of the footy season. But still I will look forward to the new season starting in the Autumn and to your skill in picking the winners. :cheers Dave