sjuesju Posted December 10, 2009 Share Posted December 10, 2009 Re: My Unders System Really good results :) I am not sure I understand the system, but I will try. There is another thing that is strange to me. It is about the days when you have 8 or 6 selections and you are worried about winning or losing. I think you calculate your win or lose not day by day, but from beginning to the end of a period or numbers of bets, so there is no difference would be today bad day or not. You have 300 and you started with 200, that is the most important :) Keep going :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted December 10, 2009 Author Share Posted December 10, 2009 Re: My Unders System Hi Palaceman, I've never been taken into the whole idea of systems because most usually have flaws which will eventually leave you with empty pockets but i've followed your thread for quite a few weeks now and would love to be apart of it after seeing the consistency in this despite modest returns and from time to time small losses. I hope to hear from you before the weekends fixtures! Since you are a Palace fan , I have a tip which may seem a bit obvious so I do apologise. Darren Ambrose has scored in every one of Crystal Palace’s last 8 games except the eagles 3-0 home loss to Doncaster Rovers. Could well be a good score anytime bet! Good Luck Palaceman and all the good people of PL:dude Thanks for the kind comments. You are remarkably perceptive for a Millwall fan :lol (Only kidding. I've a number of friends who support Millwall) To be honest, I'm not much of a fan of systems either, in any type of betting. This is system-based, but arguably it is not truly a system as there are certain criteria involving my own judgement too. As for Darren Ambrose, we'll enjoy him while we can. Along with any of our better players, I suspect he'll be sold in January to help keep the bailiffs from the door. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted December 10, 2009 Author Share Posted December 10, 2009 Re: My Unders System Really good results :) I am not sure I understand the system, but I will try. There is another thing that is strange to me. It is about the days when you have 8 or 6 selections and you are worried about winning or losing. I think you calculate your win or lose not day by day, but from beginning to the end of a period or numbers of bets, so there is no difference would be today bad day or not. You have 300 and you started with 200, that is the most important :) Keep going :) Thank you sjuesju, and :welcome to my little thread. You are of course correct that results are judged over a course of time, not just a single Saturday. But nonetheless (and perhaps illogically) I do dread those Saturdays when I have an even number of bets since it puts the pressure on, and the odds are that it will result in a loss making day. If I have 9 bets, I only need 5 to win to be profitable. If I have 10, almost certainly I will need 6 to be correct, which (at 60%) is slightly higher than my average win percentage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 10, 2009 Share Posted December 10, 2009 Re: My Unders System I was just wondering Palaceman whether you think you can achieve a higher yield and ultimately profit if you use your system for overs in addition to unders since there are typically a higher percentage of games finishing with over 2.5 goals. Is this something you have trialed and tested like you have done with the under 2.5 system. If so what was the results? Also have you tested your system against some low scoring leagues such as France or do you think the reputation of these sort of leagues will not represent value on the unders market Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted December 10, 2009 Author Share Posted December 10, 2009 Re: My Unders System I was just wondering Palaceman whether you think you can achieve a higher yield and ultimately profit if you use your system for overs in addition to unders since there are typically a higher percentage of games finishing with over 2.5 goals. Is this something you have trialed and tested like you have done with the under 2.5 system. If so what was the results? Also have you tested your system against some low scoring leagues such as France or do you think the reputation of these sort of leagues will not represent value on the unders market Thanks When I first paper trailed my theories on unders last year, I did paper trail a similar approach to overs, but without success. In all honesty, that was exactly what I expected. My approach is largely based around attacking play, using Paul R's stats as a basis, to which I then add other criteria. If a team doesn't have a system that leads to attacking and creating chances, that's probably true whoever they play. However, the same theory doesn't really carry across to overs, IMHO. The top 6 teams or so in each division will often have high points on Paul's ratings, but that's because they are mostly significantly better than the majority of their opponents, and so spend a lot of time in the opposition half. However, when they are playing other top teams they no longer have that dominance. As an obvious example, Man U and Chelsea always have high ratings, built up against much inferior opponents. But when they play each other, it doesn't automatically give an indication of a high scoring match since (a) neither will have such dominance and (b) they will both be a little more cautious of risking going a goal behind than if they were playing a lesser team, and will be less cavalier about looking for a second goal should they take the lead. I've never tested my theories in foreign leagues - perhaps I should. But my fear is that I'd end up with far too many selections each weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 11, 2009 Share Posted December 11, 2009 Re: My Unders System Ok Thanks for your reply Palaceman I look forward to your selections later on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staines Passive Posted December 11, 2009 Share Posted December 11, 2009 Re: My Unders System When I first paper trailed my theories on unders last year, I did paper trail a similar approach to overs, but without success. In all honesty, that was exactly what I expected. My approach is largely based around attacking play, using Paul R's stats as a basis, to which I then add other criteria. If a team doesn't have a system that leads to attacking and creating chances, that's probably true whoever they play. However, the same theory doesn't really carry across to overs, IMHO. The top 6 teams or so in each division will often have high points on Paul's ratings, but that's because they are mostly significantly better than the majority of their opponents, and so spend a lot of time in the opposition half. However, when they are playing other top teams they no longer have that dominance. As an obvious example, Man U and Chelsea always have high ratings, built up against much inferior opponents. But when they play each other, it doesn't automatically give an indication of a high scoring match since (a) neither will have such dominance and (b) they will both be a little more cautious of risking going a goal behind than if they were playing a lesser team, and will be less cavalier about looking for a second goal should they take the lead. I've never tested my theories in foreign leagues - perhaps I should. But my fear is that I'd end up with far too many selections each weekend. Hi Palaceman, As discussed I am currently trying to formulate an overs system - its currently running at about 10% profit, but when I am a little more confident about it I will share it on here. In the time being I would have thought spreading your system over more leagues would make perfect sense. It means that not only can you be more selective in your bets (perhaps making 1.9 minimum odds?) but you can also make sure that you avoid the even numbers this way? Also as discussed there is some real value if you can pick an over in some leagues such as the Dutch leagues - you can pretty much always get around 2.0 - 2.8 on a under in that league. As ever wish you all the luck for the weekend, and hope that your unders dont clash with my overs :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 11, 2009 Share Posted December 11, 2009 Re: My Unders System I would agree staines Passive; there are certainly value to be found in overseas leagues which are generally rich in goals, the most popular being: Dutch 1st, 2nd and Jupiler league Swiss Super league Austria Bundesliga Germany Bundesliga 1 and 2 Norway Tippeligaen Belgium Jupiler league Denmark SAS league English prem league Finland kakkonen (no particular order) But for unders some good leagues are: French 1st and 2nd div (Montpellier and Valenciennes the exception) Spanish 2nd division Sweden 1st division Greece 1st division Portugal 1st (Benfica the exception) Italy Serie A and B (Although certain teams such as Roma and Milan are usually good value for overs) (no particular order) If you could implement low scoring teams teams from other leagues via your system it could be worth doing but I wouldn't complicate things by adding teams from obscure leagues you might not know much about especially at this point of the season. The system is going well, you've made a decent profit and okay it can have it's bad days but it is generally consistent. Staines Passive, I would be v interested in your overs system when it is ready. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted December 11, 2009 Author Share Posted December 11, 2009 Re: My Unders System Hi Palaceman, As discussed I am currently trying to formulate an overs system - its currently running at about 10% profit, but when I am a little more confident about it I will share it on here. In the time being I would have thought spreading your system over more leagues would make perfect sense. It means that not only can you be more selective in your bets (perhaps making 1.9 minimum odds?) but you can also make sure that you avoid the even numbers this way? Also as discussed there is some real value if you can pick an over in some leagues such as the Dutch leagues - you can pretty much always get around 2.0 - 2.8 on a under in that league. As ever wish you all the luck for the weekend, and hope that your unders dont clash with my overs :ok Arising out of the interest in this, I have started a paper trail on the unders in the following Premier leagues, just to see how it goes: Blue SQ , Scottish, French, German, Spanish, Italian Millwall, I don't have sufficient data for Sweden, Greece or Portugal, which you suggested, but after a while I'll let you know how it's faring. As for the overs, I'll leave those to the experts ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted December 11, 2009 Author Share Posted December 11, 2009 Re: My Unders System There are 9 selections this weekend - my favourite number, as it's the one I used in the example in my opening post. We know for a fact that 5 out of 9 are required to make a profit. Hopefully this percentage is within our capabilities, but we'll have to wait and see. The Betfair odds quoted assume 5% commission which I've already deducted. Please note that the Brighton match is tonight if you want to have a bet on it. Please also note that I am only detailing 7 of the 9 matches now, as I am waiting for prices to be taken on the other 2, but in view of the list including a match tonight I thought I should post it up now, and give you the remaining two selections when those bets are taken. The selections are the matches at the following venues: Hull 1.875 Bet 365 Coventry 1.98 Ladbrokes Brighton 1.92 Betfair Leyton 2.05 Bet 365 Oldham 1.80 Sky Burton 1.87 Canbet Macclesfield 1.925 Bet 365 If you want the other two selections, keep an eye on the thread. Good luck everyone :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
addhesive Posted December 11, 2009 Share Posted December 11, 2009 Re: My Unders System Thanks Palaceman....here's hoping for a decent return. Dave:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted December 11, 2009 Author Share Posted December 11, 2009 Re: My Unders System Thanks Dave. An indecent return would suit me ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
addhesive Posted December 11, 2009 Share Posted December 11, 2009 Re: My Unders System :lol Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ls1 Posted December 11, 2009 Share Posted December 11, 2009 Re: My Unders System Good luck mate...any profit would suit me. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millwall2010 Posted December 11, 2009 Share Posted December 11, 2009 Re: My Unders System In Palaceman we trust................Hopefullly! :lol Just a few selections which I'm wondering why you havent included is: Preston v Plymouth Well first off 5 out of the last 7 meetings have finished unders. All of Prestons last 6 games have finished unders and in their last 6 games they've only scored two goals. Plymouth are on a four game losing streak but their last 3 away games have ended only 1-0 v Swansea and Leicester City and also a 1-0 win away at middlesbrough. Betdevil also rates it a massive 79% unders as the goal avg from the last 12 meetings is 1.42. They are also available at around 1.85 which suits the system very well. Ipswich v Blackpool Another game in the championship which has caught my eye is ipswich v blackpool. Ipswich simply cannot score many goals at the moment. They have failed to score in their last 2 home games but have also kept a clean sheet. Their last 5 home games have been unders and 8 out of their last 9 league games have finished unders. My only concern is that blackpool put 3 past middlesbrough but then again boro's home form isn't great. It is available at 1.85. Again a good price. :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted December 11, 2009 Author Share Posted December 11, 2009 Re: My Unders System Just a few selections which I'm wondering why you havent included is: There are lots of reasons for selecting or not selecting matches. Like anything, it's a matter of opinion. The two you nominated simply didn't meet my criteria, but that's not to say they won't be unders. Good luck with them. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted December 11, 2009 Author Share Posted December 11, 2009 Re: My Unders System A bad start to the weekend with tonight's result. Let's hope it doesn't augur badly for tomorrow. I can now give you the final two selections. They are the matches at: Stockport (1.92) and Northampton (1.94) Both prices via Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjuesju Posted December 12, 2009 Share Posted December 12, 2009 Re: My Unders System I've tried to find the original thread where Paul Ross has explained his system, with idea to understand this one, but I couldn't. Can someone help me? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted December 12, 2009 Author Share Posted December 12, 2009 Re: My Unders System I've tried to find the original thread where Paul Ross has explained his system' date=' with idea to understand this one, but I couldn't. Can someone help me?[/quote'] It's not a system, sjuesju. It's a method of calculating attacking ability, from which he calculates totals. It's then up to people to interpret/use the totals as they sit fit. Although I have some idea what factors he takes into account in making his calculations, I don't believe he has ever revealed the precise details. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjuesju Posted December 12, 2009 Share Posted December 12, 2009 Re: My Unders System I see, thank you :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted December 12, 2009 Author Share Posted December 12, 2009 Re: My Unders System A very bad performance today. It happens. Very difficult to find unders on a day when so many goals were flying around. And an injury time goal didn't help. Hull 1.875 Bet 365:clap Coventry 1.98 Ladbrokes:cry Brighton 1.92 Betfair:cry Leyton 2.05 Bet 365:cry Oldham 1.80 Sky :clap Stockport 1.92 Betfair:cry Burton 1.87 Canbet:cry Macclesfield 1.925 Bet 365:cry Northampton 1.94 Betfair :clap Staked: 90 points Loss: 33.85 points. __________________ Running Totals: Staked: 930 points Wins: 53 (56.98%) Losses: 40 Profit: 77.93 Yield: 8.38% Closing Bank: 277.93 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ls1 Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 Re: My Unders System Unlucky this week mate, never mind your system is still in profit, so lets look forward to next week. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted December 13, 2009 Author Share Posted December 13, 2009 Re: My Unders System Unlucky this week mate' date=' never mind your system is still in profit, so lets look forward to next week. :hope[/quote'] Thanks Richard. I learned many years ago that when you make a loss in any form of gambling, it's dangerous to convince yourself you were unlucky, because it stops you from identifying identifying errors and learning from them. However, having analysed this week's selections I think we can genuinely claim that luck went against us. A ratio of 3 winners to 6 losers sounds pretty awful. But two of the matches changed very late on. MK Dons got their second goal in the final minute at Orient to ruin that bet. Then even worse, in the Stockport match, the Charlton keeper put through his own goal deep into injury time to ruin that one. Had it not been for those two late efforts, instead of being 3/6 we would have been 5/4, and making a profit rather than a loss. Such is the fine dividing line with these unders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
addhesive Posted December 13, 2009 Share Posted December 13, 2009 Re: My Unders System Yep a very fine line Palaceman. I must say that the Mk Dons game had me nervous even before the match started. That team have an uncanny knack of scoring late to win matches. Upwards and onwards.;) Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
addhesive Posted December 15, 2009 Share Posted December 15, 2009 Re: My Unders System Anything doing tonight Palaceman? Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted December 16, 2009 Author Share Posted December 16, 2009 Re: My Unders System Sorry mate, I've been out all day and only recently got home. Didn't have a chance to look at them before. Had a look since and I wouldn't have picked any - just as well. Had a look at tomorrow's (Wednesday) too, and there won't be any from those either Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted December 19, 2009 Author Share Posted December 19, 2009 Re: My Unders System I'm a bit nervous about the number of overs generally there have been this season, throughout the leagues. Teams definitely seem to be getting more attacking-minded, which is bad news for an unders system. Let's hope this weekend's selections can buck that trend. We'll need 5 out of the 9 selections to make a profit. They are the matches at the following venues: Everton 1.8 (Bet 365) Derby 1.86 (Betfair) Peterboro 2.05 (Bet 365) Exeter 1.8 (Paddy Power) MK Dons 1.93 (Betfair) Swindon 1.92 (Betfair) Tranmere 2.05 (Bet 365) Walsall 2.03 (Betfair) Port Vale 1.91 (Betfair) The Betfair odds are with 5% commission already deducted. :hope to everyone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ls1 Posted December 19, 2009 Share Posted December 19, 2009 Re: My Unders System Good luck mate :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staines Passive Posted December 19, 2009 Share Posted December 19, 2009 Re: My Unders System Tranmere 2.05 (Bet 365) I hope it's been snowing in Tranmere this morning as there one of my overs :\ I notice there is still a lack of foreign teams in there mate :spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted December 19, 2009 Author Share Posted December 19, 2009 Re: My Unders System I notice there is still a lack of foreign teams in there mate As promised, I have begun monitoring certain foreign leagues, but it will be several weeks before I have sufficient data to decide whether I can draw any conclusions. Additionally, I have also began work on one or two theories to see if I can identify "overs". Again, it will be a long time before I feel I have sufficient results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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