palaceman Posted February 7, 2010 Author Share Posted February 7, 2010 Re: My Unders System Slightly disappointing end to the Saturday results with 2 goals in the last 11 minutes in the match at Doncaster. Along with the needless consolation goal in the 89th minute for Blackpool, that turned what might easily have been a superb 7-1 day into just a good 5-3 day. Still, mustn't be greedy. A profit is a profit. And the whole ethos of the system is to go for steady, moderate accumulating profits rather than those systems that search for the spectacular and (more often than not) disappear into oblivion. Hull 2.0 (Ladbrokes) :cry Sunderland 1.85 (Bet365) :clap Blackpool 1.9 (Be365) :cry Doncaster 1.8 (Bet365) :cry Peterboro 2.0 (Ladbrokes) :clap Bournemouth 1.84 (Ladbrokes) :clap Bradford 1.88 (Bet Chronicle) :clap Dagenham 2.05 (Bet365) :clap Staked: 80 points Profit: 16.20 points. __________________ Running Totals: Staked: 1570 points Wins: 94 (59.87%) Losses: 63 Profit: 226.83 Yield: 14.45% Closing Bank: 426.83 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaneFromSpain Posted February 7, 2010 Share Posted February 7, 2010 Re: My Unders System Congrats on your continued success Palaceman and thank you for being kind enough to share it with others. Good luck in the coming weeks mate. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted February 7, 2010 Author Share Posted February 7, 2010 Re: My Unders System Thanks Jane. Although the system may not be good enough for you as you're looking for a yield of 20% ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted February 8, 2010 Author Share Posted February 8, 2010 Re: My Unders System Guys - I'm just about to go on hols for a week and a half, so there won't be any predictions until the weekend after next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
addhesive Posted February 9, 2010 Share Posted February 9, 2010 Re: My Unders System Happy hols Palaceman.....pity to break a good run but needs must when the devil drives I suppose. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted February 19, 2010 Author Share Posted February 19, 2010 Re: My Unders System Happy hols Palaceman.....pity to break a good run but needs must when the devil drives I suppose. Dave Thanks mate. Had a great time in St Lucia, including the surreal experience of watching Palace v Villa live on TV (Fox Sports) in 95 degrees heat in my swimming trunks. Anyway, back now, so down to business. There are a dozen selections for the weekend, and they include the highest price we've ever obtained. On the face of it, the match (at Arsenal) doesn't seem like an under, but the indicators suggest that it could well be. We'll see. Warning - the Bury match is tonight, so sorry for the short notice. The selected matches are at: Arsenal 2.63 (Stan J) W Ham 1.87 (Betfair) A Villa 2.08 (Ladbrokes) Man City 1.8 (Stan J) Wigan 1.8 (Ladbrokes) Cardiff 1.93 (Bet Chronicle) Peterboro 2.03 (Canbet) Scunthorpe 1.94 (Ladbroke) Sheff Wed 1.90 (Betfair) Bury 1.82 (Bet Chronicle) Cheltenham 1.88 (Bet Chronicle) Darlington 1.84 (Betfair) :hope everyone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted February 22, 2010 Author Share Posted February 22, 2010 Re: My Unders System Taking away the Peterboro match (postponed) we were left with 11 matches, of which 6 were winners. But once again we can justifiably complain about bad luck with late goals. In three of the matches - West Ham, Wigan and Scunthorpe - we were beaten with goals in injury time. Without this rotten luck, instead of 6 wins and 5 losers, we would have had 9 wins and two losers. The Gods are against us at the moment. But as I've said before, a profit is a profit, and I shouldn't complain when we get one. Additionally, our biggest ever price (in the Arsenal match) came up trumps, which confirms the importance of believing the indicators regardless of personal doubts. We also passed another milestone - our 100th winner. Arsenal 2.63 (Stan J) :drums W Ham 1.87 (Betfair) :cry A Villa 2.08 (Ladbrokes) :cry Man City 1.8 (Stan J) :clap Wigan 1.8 (Ladbrokes) :cry Cardiff 1.93 (Bet Chronicle) :clap Scunthorpe 1.94 (Ladbroke) :cry Sheff Wed 1.90 (Betfair) :clap Bury 1.82 (Bet Chronicle) :clap Cheltenham 1.88 (Bet Chronicle) :clap Darlington 1.84 (Betfair) :cry Staked: 110 points Profit: 9.6 points. __________________ Running Totals: Staked: 1680 points Wins: 100 (59.52%) Losses: 68 Profit: 236.43 Yield: 14.07% Closing Bank: 436.43 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted February 22, 2010 Share Posted February 22, 2010 Re: My Unders System Don't complain about luck - you're doing fantastically well. Luck has little to do with long-term value betting, whether it's bad or good. A lot of goals come in injury time, but a lot of saves as well. I'm sure you don't appreciate the "luck" you have from those saves. It all evens out over time, so value your great system and pat yourself on the back, most people would give their left arm for a 14% yield. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted February 22, 2010 Author Share Posted February 22, 2010 Re: My Unders System Don't complain about luck - you're doing fantastically well. Luck has little to do with long-term value betting' date=' whether it's bad or good. A lot of goals come in injury time, but a lot of saves as well. I'm sure you don't appreciate the "luck" you have from those saves. [/quote'] That of course is very true. And as an ex pro gambler I am well aware of it. In fact, I've frequently chided people who go on about bad luck, so I am being a bit of a hypocrite. The only thing I'd say in my defence is that it's slightly different when people make a loss and put it down to bad luck, which is a very dangerous mindset to get into, because it stops you leaning from your mistakes. In my case, I've been making a profit. You are very right in what you say about people remembering bad luck and overlooking the good luck that's gone their way. And of course there may well have been saves or posts hit in injury time that have worked to our advantage. But certainly in recent weeks it would seem that fortune has not smiled on us regardless of the fact that we have made profits. Over the weekend, Hull going down to 9 men and letting in a goal in injury time, and Pavyluchenko coming on to get two very late goals for Spurs were prime examples. But essentially, the gist of what you have said I totally agree with :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted February 26, 2010 Author Share Posted February 26, 2010 Re: My Unders System Ten selections this weekend, and eight of them are in the Championship, so we are relying heavily on lots of defensive play in that division! The selections are the matches at: Bolton 1.86 (Canbet) Liverpool 2.10 (Canbet) Barnsley 1.86 (Bet Chronicle) Coventry 1.91 (W Hill) Middlesboro 1.80 (Bet Chronicle) Preston 1.86 (Bet Chronicle) Sheff U 1.90 (Bet365) Swansea 1.91 (W Hill) Watford 1.95 (Bet 365) WBA 2.1 (Blue SQ) :hope everyone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
addhesive Posted March 1, 2010 Share Posted March 1, 2010 Re: My Unders System :\ Unlucky Palaceman.....(just a figure of speech given the last two posts by the way;)) Traded out of one of the in-play games just at the right moment but the Arsenal game couldn't come to the rescue on Sunday. Looked good for half an hour then all hell let loose...reckon the keepers must of slunk of for a quick half down the pub:beer. Oh well onwards and upwards.....anything worth attacking on Tuesday? Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted March 1, 2010 Author Share Posted March 1, 2010 Re: My Unders System Thanks Dave. We are bound to get bad weeks and this was one. I texted a friend who goes to watch Watford with 5 minutes to go. They were losing 2-0 at the time, and I told him not to let any more goals in. Then they go and score a bloody consolation goal in injury time. I'm about to go out, but will update the figures later today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoskinator Posted March 1, 2010 Share Posted March 1, 2010 Re: My Unders System WBA seems quite a strange choice they seem to score and let in goals by the bucket load. but saying that your system picked arsenal last week and I suppose that these teams have good odds so when they do come in you make big bucks. keep up the good work sir Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted March 3, 2010 Author Share Posted March 3, 2010 Re: My Unders System WBA seems quite a strange choice they seem to score and let in goals by the bucket load. but saying that your system picked arsenal last week and I suppose that these teams have good odds so when they do come in you make big bucks. keep up the good work sir Thanks mate. Since I altered some of the criteria around Boxing Day (after extensive research) there is more of a likelihood of this type of "unlikely" match being thrown up. But it wasn't quite as odd as you might think. WBA had failed to win their last four games and had only scored a single goal in their previous 2 league games (admittedly away). At half time the game was 0-0, and was only 0-1 three quarters of the way through the match, at which point the odds against the under would have been pretty short. I'm sorry that I haven't got back on this site as soon as I promised. But over the past 48 hours I've been rather distracted by my interest and involvement in the Palace situation. As a result, not only have I been slow in updating last weekend's poor results, but more significantly I didn't have time to research last night's fixtures. That was particularly gutting as, having now done so, we would have had 3 selections, all winners :wall Anyway, spilt milk etc. Here is last weekend's update: Bolton 1.86 (Canbet) :clap Liverpool 2.10 (Canbet) :cry Barnsley 1.86 (Bet Chronicle) :clap Coventry 1.91 (W Hill) :cry Middlesboro 1.80 (Bet Chronicle) :clap Preston 1.86 (Bet Chronicle) :cry Sheff U 1.90 (Bet365) :cry Swansea 1.91 (W Hill) :clap Watford 1.95 (Bet 365) :cry WBA 2.1 (Blue SQ) :cry Staked: 100 points Loss: 25.7 points. __________________ Running Totals: Staked: 1780 points Wins: 104 (58.43%) Losses: 74 Profit: 210.73 Yield: 11.84% Closing Bank: 410.73 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rooker Posted March 5, 2010 Share Posted March 5, 2010 Re: My Unders System Any selections this weekend Palaceman? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted March 5, 2010 Author Share Posted March 5, 2010 Re: My Unders System Yes, Rooker, there are. But I must confess to being a bit worried about them, and don't blame anyone who chooses not to follow them. For some reason, I seem to be suggesting that most of the top teams won't get many goals! For that reason we have some very attractive prices this weekend, although attractive prices are no use if they lose! A couple of weeks back, in the Arsenal home game, we had the highest price ever. Well, in Arsenal's next home game, we've topped that by half a point! I can understand why the price is so high, but we'll have to see how it goes.... The two Betfair prices already have commission deducted. There are only 6 matches, and they are as follows: Arsenal 3.11 (Betfair) Wolves 2.06 (Canbet) Everton 2.09 (Canbet) Peterboro 1.81 (Canbet) QPR 2.04 (Betfair) Rotherham 1.80 (Ladbrokes) :hope everyone. Looks like we'll need it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bookie Buster Posted March 11, 2010 Share Posted March 11, 2010 Re: My Unders System Hi Palaceman As a lurker, I have been following your success for quite some time now. Firstly I want to say well done for your success....very impressive indeed. Contrary to my username, I am a semi pro and although I have not staked on any of your selections, that may soon change. I just have one question. Your current win percentage is around 58% which is excellent. I am just wondering when you paper trailed unders last year, what your sample size and percentage win rate was? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted March 11, 2010 Author Share Posted March 11, 2010 Re: My Unders System Another disappointing weekend, with 2 winners in the 6 matches. Without wishing to sound like an old gramaphone record, I'll merely point out (but not moan about) the TWO goals in injury time at Rotherham Arsenal 3.11 (Betfair) :cry Wolves 2.06 (Canbet) :clap Everton 2.09 (Canbet) :cry Peterboro 1.81 (Canbet) :clap QPR 2.04 (Betfair) :cry Rotherham 1.80 (Ladbrokes) :cry Staked: 60 points Loss: 21.3 points. __________________ Running Totals: Staked: 1840 points Wins: 106 (57.61%) Losses: 78 Profit: 189.43 Yield: 10.30% Closing Bank: 389.43 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted March 11, 2010 Author Share Posted March 11, 2010 Re: My Unders System Hi Palaceman As a lurker, I have been following your success for quite some time now. Firstly I want to say well done for your success....very impressive indeed. Contrary to my username, I am a semi pro and although I have not staked on any of your selections, that may soon change. I just have one question. Your current win percentage is around 58% which is excellent. I am just wondering when you paper trailed unders last year, what your sample size and percentage win rate was? :welcome to the thread. In answer to your question, I paper-trailed about half a season last season, but had also paper trailed (with slightly different criteria) the season before. The win percentage was around 58% during testing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bookie Buster Posted March 11, 2010 Share Posted March 11, 2010 Re: My Unders System Thanks Palaceman.....just proves how consistant your system is at generating a profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vodka Posted March 11, 2010 Share Posted March 11, 2010 Re: My Unders System Do you have any archive which results are the lossers and how many times? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted March 11, 2010 Author Share Posted March 11, 2010 Re: My Unders System Do you have any archive which results are the lossers and how many times? Not sure I understand the question, vodka Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vodka Posted March 12, 2010 Share Posted March 12, 2010 Re: My Unders System Which results made your bets lose. yes I know my english:\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted March 12, 2010 Author Share Posted March 12, 2010 Re: My Unders System Which results made your bets lose. yes I know my english:\ Don't worry mate. I'm pretty sure your English is rather better than my grasp of your own language ;) Unfortunately, I'm still not entirely clear what you are after. The simple answer to your question is "All the selections where there were over 2 goals" If you want to know which ones these were, you would need to look back through the thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted March 12, 2010 Author Share Posted March 12, 2010 Re: My Unders System Ok, eight selections this weekend. Please note these include Sunday & Monday. They are the matches at: Hull 2.34 (Canbet) Sunderland 1.85 (Bet 365) Liverpool 2.29 (Bet 365) Coventry 1.83 (Paddy P) Ipswich 1.96 (Ladbrokes) Leicester 1.8 (Bet 365) Watford 1.92 (Ladbrokes) WBA 2.2 (Blue Sq) :hope on a change of fortune Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danthepunter Posted March 12, 2010 Share Posted March 12, 2010 Re: My Unders System Hi palaceman first thing great system seems very consistent . I am just wondering how you pick your selections (sorry if you have stated somewhere else in the thread ) ? Also you take all them bets as singles but have you ever thought about puting them all into doubles bets might increase your % profit ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted March 13, 2010 Author Share Posted March 13, 2010 Re: My Unders System Hi palaceman first thing great system seems very consistent . I am just wondering how you pick your selections (sorry if you have stated somewhere else in the thread ) ? Also you take all them bets as singles but have you ever thought about puting them all into doubles bets might increase your % profit ? Hi Dan. Thanks for the kind comments. With regards to methodolgy, I can't add much to the explanation in the very opening post on the thread. I appreciate a number of people like making multilpe bets (doubles, trebles etc) but I'm not keen on it. Incidentally, a couple of months back a friend "borrowed" some of my 10 selections that weekend for a competition he was in on another site, and he posted them up as a series of doubles. I got 7 out of 10 and made a healthy profit. All his doubles, bar one, lost and he made a hefty loss - with the same selections! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoskinator Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 Re: My Unders System I'm always shocked you pick WBA in your system. I bet on under and over 2.5 goals and I look at the percentage of games and total goals. WBA are joint second in over 2.5 goals, also second in the league. Although saying that the percentage of games over 2.5 is only 56% at home - http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2009-2010/over-under/home and is 61% at home and away. They average 3.08 goals a game. Excluding WBA, the other picks and the system is certainly bringing home the bacon and the other results make it a pretty good week with my rough calulations good work sir Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
addhesive Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 Re: My Unders System Not come across that site before Hoskinator.....thanks for that. Well done Palaceman. With one more result to go it looks like a profitable weekend all round. I tend to trade the live games and because of that I avoided one loss...actually made 65p and Sundays game I traded so that I won the amount what ever happened....no liability. I will look to do that with tonights game too. So thanks Palaceman and keep em coming. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
palaceman Posted March 15, 2010 Author Share Posted March 15, 2010 Re: My Unders System I'm always shocked you pick WBA in your system. I bet on under and over 2.5 goals and I look at the percentage of games and total goals. WBA are joint second in over 2.5 goals, also second in the league. Although saying that the percentage of games over 2.5 is only 56% at home - http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/league-championship/2009-2010/over-under/home and is 61% at home and away. They average 3.08 goals a game. Excluding WBA, the other picks and the system is certainly bringing home the bacon and the other results make it a pretty good week with my rough calulations good work sir I certainly have no problems with people debating the selections - indeed I welcome it, as that's what a forum is all about. However, I do feel it would be more proper to debate them before the match takes place rather than when a result is known. Would you have posted if the prediction had turned out to be correct? I do of course appreciate what you are saying. We have lost some money on West Brom recently. But the stats on goals per game aren't always a good indicator - West Brom only won 1-0 against lowly Sheff Wed in their previous home game. So far so good this weekend, with one match to come tonight. We are currently 5 wins out of 7, so we know a profit is guaranteed whatever the result tonight. West Brom was one of the two that was wrong. As for the other (Hull v Arsenal) don't start me off about goals after 3 minutes of injury time again! :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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