payday Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Dynamo Moscow - Celtic: Celtic Win @ 3.75 (Boylesports) 10/10 This, in my opinion, is a value bet. I just don't believe that there is a great deal separating these teams (as the tight 0-1 of the first game attests) so 3.75 odds for Celtic's win are very good. In the reverse fixture I think Celtic's home win was priced at about 1.90. So why is Dynamo's win priced up to about 2.20? Possibly, the bookies are less sure about Dynamo. Basically, these teams are pretty close quality wise and if Dynamo can go to Glasgow and win I think Celtic can go to Moscow and do the same. I mean Celtic could win 0-1 and send the thing into overtime and possibly penalties and then STILL not qualify.....The point is that the 3.75 is too high to miss. i think it's a very risky bet.i'd rather go for sheriff to win,for exemple,to win against slavia,than bet on celtic to win defense is the solid part in a russian team.the game will start with 1;0 for dinamo and i'm sure they won't spoil this advantage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbaby11 Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 SportFootball (Euro Cups) EventDinamo Moscow vs Celtic SelectionDinamo Moscow (Lay) Strength10/10 Date05/08/2009 Bookmaker/Price>Betfair @ 2.28 (Lay) ReasoningDespite losing the 1st leg 1-0 at home I still fancy the Bhoys to get it right in Russia tonight. Dinamo certainly showed they are a good side at Parkhead but overall Celtic were the better side in that game and simply couldn't put the ball in the net. Marco Fortune missed a few sitters along with Samaras and they know they can't let that happen tonight. Moscow are a good club but they don't have the stature of Celtic and with an extra weeks training behind them aswell as the return of influential midfielder Scott Brown, Celtic must fancy their chances tonight. SportFootball (Euro Cups) EventFC Timisoara vs Shakhtar SelectionShakhtar (Lay) Strength10/10 Date05/08/2009 Bookmaker/Price>Betfair @ 1.80 (Lay) ReasoningI've had alot of thought over this game and in the end I think the best option is to lay Donetsk. Yes they are a much bigger club than the Romanians but as we seen in the first leg, that never goes for anything. Timisoara defended really well in Ukraine and they played some really attractive counter attacking football to grab 2 away goals. The pressure is now all on Shakhtar and there is no doubt The Romanians will believe they can do it tonight, especially with an expected huge support behind them. Domestically their home form is very good and I can see them taking a big scalp from the Champions League this evening. Good luck Jack, don't agree with the laying of Dinamo but really like your laying of Shakhtar. Shakhtar may win but it won't be easy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Moscow vs Celtic I don't know why(that's a lie, I do indeed know why) but rarely ever backing a correct score market, 1-1 in this match keeps shouting out at me and given that bet365 are going 6's and ALSO refunding (if I recall correctly) all correct score bets on boring 0-0 draws(you've probably gathered I fancy this to end in a draw) I will be having a value pop on the 1-1. Basically I can't see Dinamo failing to score and I can't see Celtic scoring more than 1 with Marco Fortune all over the place in front of goal and if it does go to 1-1 at any stage, I can see the Russians playing it very cagey and trying to snuff the game out. Back 1-1 @ 6/1 Poli vs Donetsk This is one of thos occasions when the better team are better off playing away from home as there will be more space to exploit and show their superior quality. Bacsically Shaktar know they MUST win having conceeded 2 away goals, Poli won't know if they are coming or going, not to mention the mountain of nerves their player will be feeling. Back Shaktar win @ 4/5(VC) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr.Cool Better Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 i think it's a very risky bet.i'd rather go for sheriff to win,for exemple,to win against slavia,than bet on celtic to win defense is the solid part in a russian team.the game will start with 1;0 for dinamo and i'm sure they won't spoil this advantage sheriff to win against slavia?????:rollin thats no chance!!!!!!!!!!! I bet on Slavia and Shakhtar (1,4 and 1,7 - both JETBULL) THAT MAKES ME 2,38 WHICH I REALLY NEED COZ I LOST SOME ON PANATHINAIKOS AT FCKIN SPARTA PRAGUE... :zzz Slavia is the best Czech team nowadays and Shakhtar is a big club - last year winner of UEFA so they gonna show their football skills against the villagers today!!!!!!!!!!! Good luck to all of you !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
payday Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 sheriff to win against slavia?????:rollin thats no chance!!!!!!!!!!! I bet on Slavia and Shakhtar (1,4 and 1,7 - both JETBULL) THAT MAKES ME 2,38 WHICH I REALLY NEED COZ I LOST SOME ON PANATHINAIKOS AT FCKIN SPARTA PRAGUE... :zzz Slavia is the best Czech team nowadays and Shakhtar is a big club - last year winner of UEFA so they gonna show their football skills against the villagers today!!!!!!!!!!! Good luck to all of you !! you didn't understand me,bro.i said ''i'd rather'' not ''i will bet'' on slavia to loose...anyway,good luck to you too and by the way,if one big surprise will happend this night,as at least one occurs in a round,sherrif tiraspol is my pick.i saw the high lights from the first leg,they played very well,even got a cancelled goal,on a very arguable off side position.the investments in this club are huge,year after year,so may be is time for them to have some benefits Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 I can't believe I had to trawl through another 3 pages since last night..:unsure How can anyone comfortably bet on Shakhtar because they think this round they will "get it right". I just can't get past FC Karabakh's win over Rosenborg in the Europa cup. Shocks do happen, and if they couldn't get it right the first time, there is absolutely nothing to suggest they'll make up for it away from home....even if they are the bigger team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Great goal Celtic, thats how you create. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kim Hyde Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Your post on the first page suggests otherwise, mate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Initial thoughts are that I like the look of Dinamo Zagreb. I tipped Zagreb to at least get a draw away to Salzburg. Salzburg narrowly defeated Bohemians away from home in the previous round, something which I considered quite lucky on the night because there wasn't a massive difference in technical ability between the two sides. Now, in this latest round, I consider Zagreb to be the better team and I'd be surprised if they threw away this excellent opportunity to progress. Celtic are a massive price. They may have lost the 1st leg, but that was mainly due to Dynamo parking the bus and Celtic's inability to convert chances. Scottish teams are usually very determined when they need a result, so I wouldn't rule out a win for them in Russia. I don't understand the price for a Partizan win over Nicosia. They lost the 1st leg away 2-0, so anything under 1.60 is very low for a side that needs to win 3-0 to progress. I think Slavia Prague should rack up a decent win against FC Sheriff. They drew the 1st leg 0-0, but at home I'd expect the difference in class to show, and they should make the most of this opportunity. Anderlecht away to Sivasspor interests me. Anderlecht outclassed Sivasspor in the 1st leg, so there is no reason that they can't build on that 1st leg demolition and rack up a similar score line. I looked at games in the previous round where there was a massive class difference, and the better team racked up a huge scoreline in the 1st leg. Most went on to repeat the job a 2nd time out. Celtic 1-0 up. :ok I stand by all my initial thought about this round....even if Zagreb and Anderlecht did majorly poorly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Your post on the first page suggests otherwise' date= mate. That's true mate. I've changed my mind, mainly because everyone is on them and the odds have plummeted, which now makes it a better laying prospect. It was similar to Zagreb last night, however, even I didn't think they would lose to Salzburg. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kim Hyde Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 I know what you mean about the odds, man. Whenever odds plummet down, ninety percent of the time a shock result happens in that game. And something's telling me the same will happen to Shaktar tonight but it's too late for me to do anything about it as the bet was placed on Manic Monday Morning. :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 I know what you mean about the odds' date= man. Whenever odds plummet down, ninety percent of the time a shock result happens in that game. And something's telling me the same will happen to Shaktar tonight but it's too late for me to do anything about it as the bet was placed on Manic Monday Morning. :sad Can you not just lay it off? I admire your guts if you do stick with Shakhtar all the way... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toffeeboy Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 1-0 Celtic. If that scoreline stays i'm going to run to my bookies first thing tomorrow morning! :) Good luck all. Some cracking games tonight. Can't wait for the Shaktar-Timisoara (sorry for the spelling) war! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 I can't believe I had to trawl through another 3 pages since last night..:unsure How can anyone comfortably bet on Shakhtar because they think this round they will "get it right". I just can't get past FC Karabakh's win over Rosenborg in the Europa cup. Shocks do happen, and if they couldn't get it right the first time, there is absolutely nothing to suggest they'll make up for it away from home....even if they are the bigger team. We can comfortably bet on shaktar because they are 4/5. It doesn't matter if they win or not as in the long run that price is making you money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 We can comfortably bet on shaktar because they are 4/5. It doesn't matter if they win or not as in the long run that price is making you money. How? If your bet loses, you lose money. Or is this another one of those systems where the philosophy is if you throw enough money one way, over a period of a gazillion years, the bettor will see some profit? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 It's not a system, it's maths - the only way you can make a longterm profit and a basic of betting. Are you actually telling me you do not make calculations before placing bets? How do you think odds compilers price up their matches? If you don't mind me asking, what age are you and how long have you been betting? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 It's not a system, it's maths - the only way you can make a longterm profit. Are you actually telling me you do not make calculations before placing bets? How do you think odds compilers price up their matches? If you don't mind me asking, what age are you and how long have you been betting? I'm 27 and I've been doing this since I was 18. I don't attempt to make calulations because you can't for a game of football. Just my opinion, but I imagine it would be different for a casino game. I make my selections based on what I know about a fixture and if I think the odds are incorrect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 What you do is make an estimation of how much this bet will make you over a period of bets, taking into account the % of times it will lose. Do this for every bet you make and if your estimations are correct, you'll make a bomb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Samaras :rollin legend. Well done all those on Celtic. :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbaby11 Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Great call on Celtic guys. They deserved to go through without a doubt. Dinamo was very poor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 I'm 27 and I've been doing this since I was 18. I don't attempt to make calulations because you can't for a game of football. Just my opinion, but I imagine it would be different for a casino game. I make my selections based on what I know about a fixture and if I think the odds are incorrect. But doing calculations is the only way to make sure IYO the odds are incorrect:) I'll give you an example of my shaktar bet: Remember that anything can happen in 1 game of football so take it over 100 matches in exactly the same circumstances and same price: So if I placed £100 on a shaktar win @ 4/5 and I estimated that they would win this fixture(in these exact circumstances) 75% of times. £100(stake) x 100(games) =£10,000(total stake) Each win @ 4/5 would return £180 75 wins by £180(return) = £13,500 Therefore you are making a profit of £3,500 over 100 matches whatever happens on this particular night. And so then just by placing the bet, you can say it's worth £3,500/100(bets) = £35 (per bet) whether or not it wins or loses which brings me to a favourite quote of mine:"find the value and the winners will look after themselves" Of course, my estimations of the % of times they'd win could be off ;) And of course it doesn't have to be this game, you need just 100 games @ 4/5 and with a 75% win exp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mahno Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 BTW what's going on with Celtic odds? Celtic is huge 5/2 to win.I know their away record is bad but still even Celtic +0.5 AH is 4/6. I don't think they will loose this match.Also Brown is traveling but not sure if he will play or maybe sub. Dynamo M. is a young and talented team but i just don't see Celtic loosing it.I was watching 1st leg and Celtic could score 2-3 goals easy it's just was of those bad days...Shakhtar and then Celtic...some bad luck that was. Does anybody think Celtic can drew or possibly win this game? Ha ha, Celtic 2-0.told ya they will not loose ;) Now i need Shakhtar to win :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toffeeboy Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Samaras :rollin legend. Well done all those on Celtic. :clap Haha out of all the people who could possibly have scored never did i think it would be him lol! :rollin Good game for the neutrals. I bet -1 Celtic and a Celtic win. The bookies won't be happy to see me tomorrow morning! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mahno Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 So what about Timosara fans?35000 u said?Stadium is not even full.Shakhtar dominating while Timosara keep knocking our players down... Shakhtar play full squad inc.:Chygrynsky,Rat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Ps, anyone interested in this shaktar game can go here: http://atdhe.net/index.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 I'm glad Celtic went through, wouldn't be the same without them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toffeeboy Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Those horns at the Shaktar game are annoying lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 I dunno, I like horns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackJarvis Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Get In The Bhoys. Different class to Dinamo Moscow (Who?!?) :nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolves27 Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 shaktar 0-0 with half time closing now i hate to see people lose, but i hope shaktar dont win if im being honest with you or at least give you a late scare some of you lot on here were darn right rude to the person who suggested back timosoria to qualify and i wouldnt mind some of you being bought down a peg or two Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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