benrhosgad Posted August 4, 2009 Author Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 This is my prediction for tomorrow's games FC Bate v FK Ventspils = Fc BateDinamo Moscow v Celtic = Dinamo MoscowFC Timisoara v Shakhtar Donetsk = Shakhtar DonetskLevski Sofia v FK Baku = Levski SofiaSlavia Prague v Sheriff = Slavia PragueDebrecen v Levadia = DebrecenMaribor v FC Zurich = Fc ZurichOlympiakos v Slovan Bratislava = Olympiakos Partizan Belgrade v Apoel Nicosia = Partizan BelgradeStabaek v FC Copenhagen = Stabaek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted August 4, 2009 Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 You are wrong. I will not debate with you. Good luck with all your wagers. :cheers What? Wrong about his profits going up? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackJarvis Posted August 4, 2009 Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 You are wrong. I will not debate with you. Good luck with all your wagers. :cheers I don't want to come across as big headed but I do post all of my bets on this website and the amount of draw that would bust me had I been waiting on an outright win is unreal. In August alone Ive had 9 lays. 5 of which have been draws. 1 which has lost and 3 which have won. So from betting to win, my record would be 3 from 9. From laying it is 8 from 9. I think I know what I will stick to. :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbaby11 Posted August 4, 2009 Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 What? Wrong about his profits going up? No, I am sure you do well. The long term strategy of laying, is not a better option for the average bettor with a modest bank roll. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackJarvis Posted August 4, 2009 Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Just to point out when studying I actually study as If I'm looking to back a certain team to win. If I am confident enough on a certain selection I will then lay the opposition if I feel the odds are just about correct. I do think I could make a profit betting to win and have done in the past but all I am saying is the amount of times draws, late equalisers etc go against (and for!) you is unreal and laying has seen my profits shoot up in the past month or so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbaby11 Posted August 4, 2009 Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Fair enough, I was confused when I saw you say you thought there was value with twente win, and decided to lay Lisbon. If you think there is value in a Twente win, it doesn't automatically mean there is value in laying Lisbon. Let's say the score was 1-1 at halftime. Twente in the second half would commit men forward and try to score because they would need to win to advance. This would open them up to counter attacks making a lisbon win much more likely than in a league game. So in this situation, yes there is value in a Twente win, but the value in laying Lisbon isn't necessarily there. Each game is a unique event with many considerations which obviously you know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greeningoutsforgirls Posted August 4, 2009 Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Laying is only backing the other two outcomes in a football match on a 100% book, (unless it's Asian Handicap of course). The bottom line is, if the price of the event(s) was better than the mathematical probability, you will win in the long run....otherwise you finish level after a thousand bets...... less commission. It's really quite simple. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benrhosgad Posted August 4, 2009 Author Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 what is your prediction for tomorrow's games? can you help me please i was thinking of laying BATE and i can't decided the others thank you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbaby11 Posted August 4, 2009 Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Laying is only backing the other two outcomes in a football match on a 100% book, (unless it's Asian Handicap of course). The bottom line is, if the price of the event(s) was better than the mathematical probability, you will win in the long run....otherwise you finish level after a thousand bets...... less commission. It's really quite simple. Of course it's simple but.... there may be a higher expected value from the twente ml wager over 1000 bets than laying lisbon over 1000bets. Both wagers can be profitable over 1000 bets, but one will always be more profitable than the other. When he said he thought there was excellent value in Twente ml, I assumed he meant that that was the best wager with the greatest expected value. So when he ended up laying Lisbon I was confused as to why he would do that if there was more expected value in Twente ml. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jota Posted August 4, 2009 Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Twente - Sporting Both teams to score 1.81 @ Expekt 1pt :nana Sporting +0.25 1.91 @ Betfair 1pt :nana Twente was lucky in the first game. They had one good oportunity with only 20 second played, but after the first 10 minutes Sporting totally dominated the match. Boschker was sent off, anf if Moutinho had scored that penalty probably sporting would have won for 2 or 3 goals. They had great efforts on goal but Mihaylov had an amazing performance. For this second leg i believe Sporting will show what they didn´t in the first match: experience...they have a lot more games than Twente in the Euro Cups, players like Polga, Abel, Moutinho, Liedson, Postiga, Matias Fernandez (from Villarreal) has been playing the Champions League group phase for the last 3-4 years. Plus, they have Caicedo from Man City...i believe he will be a great partner for Liedson and Vukcevic in the attack. With Liedson, Caicedo, Mati Fernandez, Vukcevic, i can perfectly see Sporting scoring in this match, but honestly im affraid that Twente doesn.t, so i taking the handicap for Sporting and will try two small side bets with small stakes: Sporting to win 3.3 @ Betfair 0.3pts :@ Sporting -1 5.7 @ Bet365 0.2pts :@ Staked: 2.5pts Back: 3.265 pts Profit: 0.765 pts BTW, Sporting deserved that late goal, as much as Twente deserved to keep a clean sheet in Lisbon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fir_Cone_79 Posted August 4, 2009 Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Hello all! My first post here. Tomorrow I will play the combination of Shakhtar, BATE and Debrecen. When it comes to the Moscow-Celtic game I think we're looking towards a draw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benrhosgad Posted August 4, 2009 Author Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 thanks Fir_Cone_79 for your prediction i was thinking of BATE aswell and DEBRECEN and LEVSKI SOFIA...any more predictions? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbaby11 Posted August 4, 2009 Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Let's figure this out mathematically. You layed lisbon at 3.10, so your odd was basically 1.32. To be profitable over 100 bets at an odd of 1.32, the game would have to end with a twente win or draw 76% of the time or more. If Lisbon wins this match 24% of the time or more this bet will result in a net loss over time. My Twente wager was at 2.50. At an odd of 2.50, Twente would have to win the match at least 40% of the time or more for it to be profitable. Let's say we both make this wager 100 times, to win 100$ each time. And after doing our research we both agree that Twente should win this game 50% of the time, a draw should happen 27% of the time and Lisbon should win 23% of the time. To win 100$ at an odd of 2.5 each time I will be risking 67$ to win 100$. Twente will win 50% of the time out of the 100 bets, so (50*100$)= 5000$ profit from the wins. My bet will lose 50% of the time (50*67$)= 3350$ net loss from the losing wagers. My total expected profit over 100 bets will be 5000$-3350$=$1650 Now let's look at laying Lisbon. Twente will win and draw 77 out of the 100 times (77%) so the net profit will be (77* 100)=7700$. It will take 310$ to win 100$ when laying lisbon so when you lose the result will be (310*23)= 7130$ The expected net profit over 100 bets when laying Lisbon is (7700-7130)=$570 Both wagers can have value over 100 bets but one is more profitable. You will win the twente ml wager a lot less than when you lay Lisbon but in the example above wagering the ml will be more profitable over time. Of course it can just as easily be that laying a team represents the better expected value. To blindly either play just the ml, or just laying is not the correct way to maximize long term profits. A combination of both is a better idea. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greeningoutsforgirls Posted August 4, 2009 Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Excellent post BigBaby :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbaby11 Posted August 4, 2009 Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Excellent post BigBaby :clap :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 4, 2009 Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 It's really quite simple, yes. It's all math and probability, the catch is that your own probabilities have to be on the ball if you are to be profitable and then it doesn't really matter if you're backing or laying as it's all about the long run, not 1 game. The thing with laying is that it can damage your bankroll severly when the bad run of luck kicks in and you really have to know what you are doing. Backing keeps your bankroll a lot more consistent and much less risk of going and busting yourself. Bankroll management is key to succesful betting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 4, 2009 Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 My estimations on that game tonight given the exact circumstances, if played over 100 times would have been as follows: Twente win = 50% Draw=30% Sporting win =20% then you simply work out the value from that either in the form of backing or laying and see what might be more profitable, but again remember, if it's the 20% turn tonight, it will take a chunk from your bankroll and in the laws of probability, these 20%er's are going to hit a lot of times in a row at some stage and for some people (that are less experienced) that causes wipeout and that's why laying (at big odds)can be a dangerous game, and is in fact how the bookmakers can be exploited by the astute punter. For the guy saying he has layed 9 teams in august, my advice would be to wait a full year to see how you get on. 9 games doesn't near allow long enough for the 'luck factor' to be eliminated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benrhosgad Posted August 4, 2009 Author Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 omg ur confusing me haha can you give your predictions more straight forward please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbaby11 Posted August 4, 2009 Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 My estimations on that game tonight given the exact circumstances, if played over 100 times would have been as follows: Twente win = 50% Draw=30% Sporting win =20% then you simply work out the value from that either in the form of backing or laying and see what might be more profitable, but again remember, if it's the 20% turn tonight, it will take a chunk from your bankroll and in the laws of probability, these 20%er's are going to hit a lot of times in a row at some stage and for some people (that are less experienced) that causes wipeout and that's why laying (at big odds)can be a dangerous game, and is in fact how the bookmakers can be exploited by the astute punter. For the guy saying he has layed 9 teams in august, my advice would be to wait a full year to see how you get on. 9 games doesn't near allow long enough for the 'luck factor' to be eliminated. Well said. Always enjoy a good discussion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValueFinder Posted August 4, 2009 Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Ps, nice value on coral for a double tomorrow in the friendly games. Back @ 2.28 on coral UTD win vs Valencia LFC win vs Lyn Both are just about getting a bit of structure to their game and fitness and match sharpness is back. Both will field pretty strong teams. Win exp = 60% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benrhosgad Posted August 4, 2009 Author Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 can you give me your predictions a lot faster instead of talking stupid haha i dont wanna be rude but i need a greater opinions on these games and predictions thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fir_Cone_79 Posted August 4, 2009 Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Slavia Prague v Sheriff I think we will see very few goals scored here. Sheriff havn't conseeded a goal in quite some time and Slavia doesn't seem to have the best of form right now. The first fixture between these two teams ended in a 0-0 draw. I will go ahead and put some change on 0-0 as the final score. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benrhosgad Posted August 4, 2009 Author Share Posted August 4, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 my picks are BATE,LEVSKI SOFIA,DEBRECEN,OLYMPIACOS AND PARTIZAN BELGRADE..i think that is 8/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jota Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Im going for Celtic DNB and Bate -1...will post some reasoning later Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benrhosgad Posted August 5, 2009 Author Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 everyone says BATE so they are pretty certain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jota Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 everyone says BATE so they are pretty certain of course its not certain... BTW...anyone has info about the Olympiakos match? I can see that the Greek league only starts on 22th August, so Olympiakos may field their strongest team.. Is Ketsbaia still testing players? Ketsbaia is experienced in Euro cups as he eliminated Olympiakos last year when he was coaching Anorthosis...im thinking on the -1 match handicap, 1.81 seems pretty nice..the greek side has extremely good players.. will apreciate any info..thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benrhosgad Posted August 5, 2009 Author Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 i know there is no such thing as certain in football haha i would bet on olympiacos though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lazy A-- Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Partizan and Olympiacos are probably the two home wins which I'm the most confident about, I've written a very large preview at my site but don't want to bother you guys about it here as I see you just mainly give out predictions and stuff like that on here. So I'll keep it that way: Stabaek over 2.5, Oly hcp, Partizan hcp, Shakhtar ML, and a few more, but these are the main ones. For those who like to read a bit more before placing their bets, feel free to visit my site with some of the best quality betting previews on the web. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbaby11 Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 what is your website? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milos NS Posted August 5, 2009 Share Posted August 5, 2009 Re: Uefa Champions League Qualifiers 4/5 August 2009 Partizan best player and playmaker Moreira lost his mother yesterday. He will play but it's question how mentaly he will be in the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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