Crouch Potato Posted July 14, 2009 Author Share Posted July 14, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Thanks Magic. Down about -15pts today, but that's okay. I called the stage pretty badly, and I'm quite happy to accept a loss when I am wrong. (unlike some other losses so far...) Anyway, some quick things. Time losses. There were time losses today. Wiggans, Leipheimer and a few others lost 15 seconds. It's probably not a big deal, but I think it's a fact that may not have been picked up on. Hushovd - Will not beat Cavendish. Boonen - Simply awful. Farrar - Is the only man that can beat Cavendish. He's not faster, but Garmin's team train is the only one that could possibly rival Cavendish's. If they can get it right maybe he can beat Cavendish. In any event, tomorrow it is a day for backing Cavendish, with a smaller bet on Farrar, who is he stays at odds of 30 or so will still be a profitable propostion despite a large bet on the Manx Man. Note, that cat 4 climb is 40km from the finish. I don't think it will be a factor. Plus, it is very clear Cavendish now wants green as well as stage wins. Tomorrow it makes great sense for them to chase down the breaks and deliver another win to Cavendish. Oh, one final note. Cavendish mentioned that he thought he could win 4 more stages, but that realistically he'd win 2, including Champs Elysee. Can we read something into that that maybe Stage 12 or 14 Columbia will not chase? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 14, 2009 Share Posted July 14, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I saw earlier after i put the reply here that the 4th climb category is 40km from finish. Isn't a big problem for teams. Probably i will put 9/10 on Cavendish and 1/10 on Farrar. We can also put 5-6/10 on top 3 Hushovd. I hope to get a good odd on Cavendish for tommorrow around 2 if it is possible, around 25-30 for Farrar and around 4 for Hushovd in top3. What do you think about this bets Crouch ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 14, 2009 Author Share Posted July 14, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I have just made my main bets. Cavendish has opened up on Betfair at 2.6-2.8. I have taken 7pts @ 2.63 average. Really, I am very surprised by these odds. He was shorter today, which was no race radios and Bastille day. Surely tomorrow the break is not more likely to succeed? Perhaps I have read it wrong though. (My record with Cavendish is to be frank, abysmal). The other ride I have backed will be no surprise to anyone - Alessandro Ballan @ 51. Two reasons: 1) He is higher with bookies than on betfair and more importantly 2) I have no doubt Ballan will soon be in a break. Given the lack of flat stages remaining, it makes sense to back him. 7pts Mark Cavendish @ 2.63 Betfair 2pts Alessandro Ballan @ 51 Paddy Power Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machevort Posted July 14, 2009 Share Posted July 14, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Hi guys, Just noticed this topic, and looked at all the bets. Nice to see all the arguments you give with the bets. So I would like to give some tips for the coming stages. Following the tour for many years now, and made some good profit the last week. My english is sometimes not to good, but understandable. For tommorow: Stage 11. In the last 500m, the height is raising from 169 to 199. So perfect for strong sprinters ( Hushovd, Freire ). Cavendish was lacking in the sprint in Barcelona, which was less raising. ( The last 500m was the raise just 16 metres, and the last 1,5 km, 24 metres. ) That's probably why the Cavendish odd is this low. If you want to bet on a sprint, I would advise to bet on Hushovd and Freire. Probably Rabobank will ride for it, because they are really searching for a win. Thereby the odds on both Hushovd and Freire are good. 2pts Thor Hushovd @ 9 Betfair 3pts Oscar Freire @ 13 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted July 14, 2009 Share Posted July 14, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) :welcome to PL machevort. Good luck to both you and Crouchie with your bets :ok. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 15, 2009 Author Share Posted July 15, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Hi guys, Just noticed this topic, and looked at all the bets. Nice to see all the arguments you give with the bets. So I would like to give some tips for the coming stages. Following the tour for many years now, and made some good profit the last week. My english is sometimes not to good, but understandable. For tommorow: Stage 11. In the last 500m, the height is raising from 169 to 199. So perfect for strong sprinters ( Hushovd, Freire ). Cavendish was lacking in the sprint in Barcelona, which was less raising. ( The last 500m was the raise just 16 metres, and the last 1,5 km, 24 metres. ) That's probably why the Cavendish odd is this low. If you want to bet on a sprint, I would advise to bet on Hushovd and Freire. Probably Rabobank will ride for it, because they are really searching for a win. Thereby the odds on both Hushovd and Freire are good. 2pts Thor Hushovd @ 9 Betfair 3pts Oscar Freire @ 13 Betfair :welcome to PL. Regarding Stage 6 into Barcelona, it is true the last 1.5km was a 24m rise, but from 2km to 1.5km was 34m rise, which is where I think the real damage was done. More importantly, I must thank you for pointing out the rise in the last 500m. I didn't notice it yesterday but with a 6% gradient finish I am certainly not confident in backing Cavendish, so I've layed off for a -1pt loss on Cav and -2pt any other (on the Cavendish bet only). I don't like backing Cavendish at the best of times, but with a 6% gradient finish over the last 500m I will wait another day. Also, not feeling confident after this interview quote yesterday about the stages left that he thinks he can win. Apologies to anyone who initially followed me in backing Cavendish. He still is not without a chance of course, but I never am too comfortable backing him so I've opted out here. Anyway, one bet I do like 5pts Andy Schleck to beat Frank Schleck (Stage H2H) @ 2.20 Sportingbet UK In Barcelona, Andy finished first. If you remove the 2 Time Trials and the mountain finish, Andy has finished ahead of Frank on 5 times out of 7 stages. I don't see why he is not a better than 50% chance here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 15, 2009 Author Share Posted July 15, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Final two bets: 1.5pts Gerald Ciolek @ 46 Ciolek hasn't really been a figure in the sprints, but watching them his timing is really bad, more so than him being outkicked. Anyway, I think today if it is a sprint he will be extremely dangerous. He looked so fast last year, often finishing in the top 3 despite leading out Cavendish. If he can just be in good position for once, I think he can surprise. 1pt Sergey Ivanov @ 60 Ivanov placed nicely in the stage that Fedrigo won and given the last 500m finishes at a gradient of 6% I think he is a man that could surprise. These bets to go with 5pts Andy Schleck to beat Frank Schleck @ 2.20 and 2pts Alessandro Ballan @ 51. -1pt loss guaranteed due to bad bet last night on Cavendish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 15, 2009 Share Posted July 15, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) My bets for today: 6pts M Cavendish @ 2.75 1pts T Hushovd @ 8.00 1pts O Freire @ 9.00 0.5pts F Pozzato @ 21.00 0.5pts R Feillu @ 51.00 0.5pts L Duque @ 41.00 0.5pts G Ciolek @ 26.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 15, 2009 Share Posted July 15, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I think the main problem for Cavendish in Barcelona was the first finish climb not the second as Crouchie said. I hope today in a victory for Cavendish again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 15, 2009 Author Share Posted July 15, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) GL today Magic. I've made a late decision to take Chavanel @ 50 (1pt) too. Getting a breakaway feel for some reason and so maybe he and Ballan can do something today. PS - what is your avatar from? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machevort Posted July 15, 2009 Share Posted July 15, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I think the main problem for Cavendish in Barcelona was the first finish climb not the second as Crouchie said. I hope today in a victory for Cavendish again Thanks for the welcome guys. Indeed the damage was done in the first climb. But what I wanted to point out, is that the first climb of stage 6 is almost the same as the last 500m in this stage. And of course Cavendish does have a chance, but I don't think it's much bigger as 25%. So an odd of 4 would be nice to back. Crouch, I really like your Ciolek-bet. It's quiet a good finish for him, and I don't think he's got a huge disadvantage on Freire & Hushovd. The only thing I'm worried about is his form, but the odd (46) is very nice, so with a bit of luck.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 15, 2009 Share Posted July 15, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) GL today Magic. I've made a late decision to take Chavanel @ 50 (1pt) too. Getting a breakaway feel for some reason and so maybe he and Ballan can do something today. PS - what is your avatar from? Petronas Towers from Malaysia :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machevort Posted July 15, 2009 Share Posted July 15, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) My bets for today: 6pts M Cavendish @ 2.75 1pts T Hushovd @ 8.00 1pts O Freire @ 9.00 0.5pts F Pozzato @ 21.00 0.5pts R Feillu @ 51.00 0.5pts L Duque @ 41.00 0.5pts G Ciolek @ 26.00 Congratulations. Sorry Crouchie, unbelievable. Cavendish seems to be invisible. This really should be the terrain of Hushovd, especially when I saw the finish now.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 15, 2009 Author Share Posted July 15, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) That's ok mate, I tend to agree that pre-stage Cavendish wasn't value, so was happy for you to point out the tough finish. Interesting anyway to learn a bit about Hutarovich. Pity that Milram didn't time their lead out better though, I really think that if he was launched at the time right time he would have won today. Anyway, Andy beat his brother, so I pretty much ended up with no profit or loss for today's stage. Taking a positive from today's stage, Pellizotti's sprint for 1 KOM point clearly shows he is going to try and win that classification, and given he is a superior climber to Martinez, I hold out hope that he will achieve his goal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Nothing for today Crouch? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 16, 2009 Author Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Ballan 28? What a joke. He's been 51+ in every stage til now, and now we are offered these odds despite the fact that he has done nothing? I wont take these odds because I simply cannot see where the value is. Still, if he wins, I'll probably give up this tour. As for today's stage, it is probably a Cavendish stage, but I've not really backed him this tour and see no real point in doing so now. It was a tough sprint yesterday and maybe today we will see the Milram train be more effective or Farrar have a better recovery to steal the stage. 1.5pts E/W Tyler Farrar @ 19 (E/W 1/4 1-2-3) 1.5pts Gerald Ciolek @ 75-100 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) On last km the terrain rise with 100m. This could be difficult for Cavendish. What do you think Coruchie? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 16, 2009 Author Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I think you read a typo lol. It's suppose to read 344m instead of 244m. The actual gradient is I think just 1.5% over the last km. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) On profile i see that rise from 244 to 349... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 16, 2009 Author Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) The profile is where the typo is. If you look at the visual level of the point where it says 244m, spacial ratios will show that vertically speaking it is so close to the finishing point that it has to be a typo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machevort Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) This stage is a bit of a ''no-bet''-stage. Really expect a group that will fight for the win today. But I see good value, and I totally agree with Crouchie that value is on Farrar and Ciolek. Playing them big, and will lay them before the 3rd cat. mountain. Hope the odd of both Ciolek and Farrar are down 25-30 %. 5pts Tyler Farrar @ 26 Betfair 5pts Gerald Ciolek @ 120 Betfair Thereby I see a strong Farrar the last days, the only sprinter which can battle with cavendish, and this stage has no good finish for Hushovd, so: 3pts Farrar to beat Hushovd @ 19/20 @ Sportingbet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Stupid stage... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 17, 2009 Author Share Posted July 17, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Yes, disappointing stage. At least Ballan did not win :unsure Tonight's stage, who knows if a break will win or not. My record on this is frankly horrible. I expect some GC attacks on the final climb though, so would be a tad surprised to see Nocentini keep yellow. As to who gets yellow though, I don't know for sure it is Alberto. I would think perhaps even Luis Leon Sanchez is an outside chance of being in yellow. Anyway, my primary bet is Michael Rogers tonight. He is a good climber, an even better time trialist. The descent finish would help him as he can use his TT ability to break clear and take a solo victory. The profile is perfect for him, if he is over his injury, which I believe he is, then he is looking for a stage win and I know for a fact he has highlighted this stage. If it's a group finish, I believe Luis Leon Sanchez to be the best descender. I will also have some small (0.5-1pt) bets on some other riders which I will announce later when matched etc. These are riders who will all be low down in the classification, so would thus have leverage to be in a break. 3.75pts Michael Rogers @ 51 1pt Pierre Rolland @ 101 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 17, 2009 Author Share Posted July 17, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Levi Leipheimer is out of the tour. Very interesting developments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted July 17, 2009 Share Posted July 17, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Sh!t...not good for Lance, what's the reason? I'm off to take a look. Looking forward to tonight's stage, a little build up to the Alps to come next week :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cosmetic Bob Posted July 17, 2009 Share Posted July 17, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Yeah very unfortunate he was defintely a big help to Lance. Yellow will surely change today but who! I think Pellozotti may try to go in a break again today as i think hes still 7-8 minutes behind hes been in a successful breakaway twice, he could get himself back into GC contention. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 17, 2009 Author Share Posted July 17, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) 1pt Luis Leon Sanchez @ 21 If the main contenders contest this stage I think LLS is a strong chance. I feel he is a superior descender which is important given the profile 1pt Yuri Trofimov @ 90 Trofimov is a strong descender and is far enough down in the overall calssification to be allowed in a break. He won a stage with a similar profile I think in the Dauphine and is available at good odds. 0.5pts Amiel Moinard @ 150 Moncoutie is the favourite to be the Cofidis man in the break but Moinard is over-priced here. He was in a break last year (stage 11) and showed some good climbing abilities and aggression. At these odds he's definitely worth a crack. 0.5pts Rigoberto Uran @ 81 Caisse often have riders in a break on mountain stages. I would normally take Arroyo but he was in a crash the other day and apparently had a few injuries. 0.5pts Cyril Dessel @ 51 AG2R often mark the breakaways and if they do today I feel Dessel is the man. This stage profile suits him perfectly and is similar to the stage he won in the tour last year. 0.5pts Yaroslav Popovych @ 95 If Astana mark the breakaways I think Popo is the likely man. He was also in the break that Dessel won last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 17, 2009 Author Share Posted July 17, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Sh!t...not good for Lance, what's the reason? I'm off to take a look. Looking forward to tonight's stage, a little build up to the Alps to come next week :tongue2 According to Bruyneel it is a fractured Scaphiod. Unlucky for you Bob. I don't think Levi was going to win but I think he was a huge chance to give you a return via a podium position. As for Pellizotti, I think he is 11mins down. He has actually been losing time on the flat stages, I think a deliberate action to ensure he keeps far enough behind to be able to participate in breaks to get a stage win and the Polka jersey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Machevort Posted July 17, 2009 Share Posted July 17, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Yes, disappointing stage. At least Ballan did not win :unsure Tonight's stage, who knows if a break will win or not. My record on this is frankly horrible. I expect some GC attacks on the final climb though, so would be a tad surprised to see Nocentini keep yellow. As to who gets yellow though, I don't know for sure it is Alberto. I would think perhaps even Luis Leon Sanchez is an outside chance of being in yellow. Anyway, my primary bet is Michael Rogers tonight. He is a good climber, an even better time trialist. The descent finish would help him as he can use his TT ability to break clear and take a solo victory. The profile is perfect for him, if he is over his injury, which I believe he is, then he is looking for a stage win and I know for a fact he has highlighted this stage. If it's a group finish, I believe Luis Leon Sanchez to be the best descender. I will also have some small (0.5-1pt) bets on some other riders which I will announce later when matched etc. These are riders who will all be low down in the classification, so would thus have leverage to be in a break. 3.75pts Michael Rogers @ 51 1pt Pierre Rolland @ 101 Disappointing is the right word, yeah. Lost just 1.25pts because of a lay on Ciolek @ 60. Could be worse.. ''With all hope of securing a strong overall position now gone, Rogers has pencilled in the 13th stage from Vittel through the Vosges mountains to the Alsatian capital of Colmar as one of the days where he hopes to join a stage-winning breakaway.'' So my Mainbet will be Rogers too, thanks Crouchie. Thereby I will take some other riders very small. Linus Gerdemann is also a rider very good at this kind of stages. So I'll take him small, together with Rojas ( sprint ). 3pts Michael Rogers @ 60 .5pts L. Gerdemann @ > 70 .5pts Jose Rojas @ ~ 130 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 18, 2009 Share Posted July 18, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I give up on this TDF. GL guys Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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