Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26)

[Magic_Boy]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Finally I put a combined bet with Martin and Moncoutie and i won it :) but i lost the bet with Pelizotti at 5/10 stakes and with Moncoutie at 2/10 stakes and my profit around -1.00 today. No poblem, not a big lose. Something for tommorrow Crouchie ?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Absolutely disastrous night :wall Pellizotti not winning, no problem. But with the break surviving, none of my picks in it and all those polka points being claimed by Kern, Martinez and Feilu. It could be have been yesterday the break succeeded :spank Tony Martin lost no time, so my most promising bet of the tour is now no chance. Pereiro almost no chance of a top 10 now either :eyes Oh, to top it off, 2 of my fancied picks for this stage (Dessel, Efimkim) are now absolutely no chance of winning today as AG2R defend the yellow of Nocintini. Maybe today can be a strong recovery one, with Ten Dam or Rolland mounting a strong bid for KOTM. Failing that though, this tour is basically a lost cause :cry For today's stage, I expect a break to form. If it poses no threat to Nocentini's yellow it's probably unlikely that it gets caught. I would expect BBOX to get a rider in the break after missing yesterday's. Sandy Casar hasn't reared his head yet either. Would expect Moncoutie to start his polka bid today and participate in the break, and maybe Ten Dam too. Would expect a Caisse rider in there too, most likely Arroyo but perhaps Uran. If the break is close to being caught over the final climb, I would think maybe that Caisse rider sits up and waits for Luis Leon Sanchez, who attacks on the descent of the final climb. Fancied Breakaway Riders: Voigt, Rolland, Trofimov, Casar, Anton, Moncoutie, Arroyo, Ten Dam. Alas, odds are impossible for a lot of these riders. Virtually no profit to be had if you take all, and even then, if I am wrong, no wins anyway. This is why yesterday was so frustrating, chance of real gains are now much less :sad Anyway, I've decided to make Trofimov the key bet of the stage. This is due to a combination of stronger odds and the fact he probably has a better finish than a lot of these riders. 3pts Yuri Trofimov @ 67 1pt David Moncoutie @ 17 1pt Sandy Casar @ 41 1pt Jens Voigt @ 40 0.5pts Igor Anton @ 41 0.5pts David Arroyo @ 67 May look for LLS in play depending on state of play and odds. :hope for Trofimov.

[Magic_Boy]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Interesting race today and very hard to bet on it but i tried some bets 1pts David Moncoutie @ 9.00 Bwin 1pts Igor Anton @ 29 Bwin 1pts George Hincapie @ 41 Bwin and a multibet like i won yesterday only on h2h h2h Contador - A Schleck @ Contador @ 1.60 h2h Evans - Nocentini @ Evans @ 1.35 h2h LL Sanchez - Kirchen @ LL Sanchez @ 1.95 all at Bwin with stakes 2.97 GL to all and i hope that Crouchie come back in profit and find one or two winning bets with high odds in the next stages maybe from today :)

[kevshat]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Every chance with Casar here Crouchie. Keeping my fingers crossed mate :hope

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26)

Every chance with Casar here Crouchie. Keeping my fingers crossed mate :hope

Thanks Kev, but I did make the Luis Leon Sanchez in play bet, and for a hefty chunk too. So :hope for Luis Leon. Casar providing a nice little backup option though.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Eventful day. With the exception of Pierre Rolland, it is safe to say that none of my picks for KOTM are any sort of chance. Oscar Pereiro abandoned and Pellizotti finished 14mins behind, so neither will get a top 10 finish. Also going to write off the Germany most stage wins bet, as frankly neither Haussler or Ciolek can deliver. Did take Luis Leon Sanchez quite large in the end, so with all bets resulted (bar Rolland - 3pts), I'm at +64 for the Tour, which is a lot better than what I thought it would be yesterday. Onto the tour itself, disappointing to see Pereiro abandon, though obviously good for his team-mate to claim the stage. Pellizotti finished 14mins down, but I mention this not because of my bet, but for future betting potential. Nocentini managed to catch back up after the acceleration by Saxo Bank and Pellizotti is a much better climber. It's possible that he is not feeling well, if this is the case we will know soon. The other possibility is that he deliberately lost time so that he could go for a stage win in future. Tomorrow doesn't look like the best sort of finish for him, but it might be worth checking the odds. As for tomorrow's stage itself, there are two ways it can play out. The break can form early and survive or Saxo Bank will achieve what they tried to do today, which is to put yellow on the shoulders of Contador and not Nocentini, to put them further in control of the race. If the latter happens it could be quite dangerous for a break's chances, and one of the faster finishing climbing types could win (I am thinking Tony Martin or Kim Kirchen). The more likely result though is that the break does survive, regardless of Saxo tactics. I've not decided yet but it's definitely one where you need to not only identify participants but also those riders who can finish off the job and win (due to the very flat finish). JA Flecha was one such rider I had in mind, but after his efforts today I can't see him in the break again, and even if he did, the energy to make a successful finish. As for the participants themselves, by my calculations there are 55 Polka points available in this stage, so anyone with a desire to win this classification may make a move. Moncoutie still has to make a move if he is going for. Team-mate Kern holds the jersey so he may act as the team-mate who knocks off the points.

[Magic_Boy]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) What about this bets for tommorrow Coruchie h2h Leipheimer - Sastre and h2h Wiggins - Kreuziger ? I think both Leipheimer and Wiggins are better on downhill that Kreuziger and Sastre. The only chance for Sastre and Kreuziger could be to go with breakaway until the finish, if the breakaway doesn't succed, and probably will be a mass finish ithink, Leipeimer and Wiggins are much better. I'm waiting for your opinion Crouchie and congratulations for today. For me was a bad day because i forget to select Sanchez for stage winning and i select him only for h2h but there i lost on Contador only...

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Tbh I don't think the angle you are coming from is too useful. Whilst those guys are better descenders, there is approximately 60km of flat after the summit. Unless one of the big contenders is dropped I think it's unlikely that those two match ups have any time difference at the finish, so you are basically betting that your two picks will cross the line in the group first.

[Magic_Boy]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I understand. Do you have some bets for today?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26)

I understand. Do you have some bets for today?

I just wrote an essay on today, and then closed the window :wall Anyway, an abridged version of what I wanted to say: Two Scenarios Either break gets away and wins, or a select group of 50 sprint it out. My focus is on the break getting away. Some of my choices may still be there if a group sprints it out. Time Losses Pellizotti (14mins) and Voigt (23mins) both lost large time yesterday. Given the fact it wasn't too hard a stage, my suspicion is that they were conserving energy. I am taking both. The Profile The stage profile today is much like the one in Stage 11 last year (Arvesen won, from a break including Almiger, Pozatto, Wegmann, Ballan, Fedrigo). It is 70km from Summit to the finish. Focus on riders with a strong ability to not just make breaks but win from there (i.e. decent sprint and race craft ala LLS yesterday) Team Objectives Lampre want to win a stage (they have nothing else to do - Furlan is busted). Ballan is the man. Same profile as where he tried last year. Ballan is the man today. Also, Rabobank want to win a stage and salvage their tour. Freire is the man IMO. Far enough behind in the green jersey, I think he can be a part of any escape. A few years ago on Bastille day, he was allowed in a break of 4, which also I believe included Ballan. Note: Popovych won that day! So best finish isn't always going to work :lol Bastille Day Rest day tomorrow. Bastille day is next stage - it is a flat stage. The prominent french breakaway artists may want to save themselves so that they can win on Bastille day. This includes Moncoutie, who I will not back today. Am also avoiding Fedrigo, Chavanel etc. A bunch of riders who I feel with either be part of a break, or look to be part of one (Includes Frog Eaters, but I wont back any of them as unsure if they will save themselves - take care with French): Ballan, Voigt, Freire, Pozatto, Velits, Arroyo, Uran, Ten Dam, Haussler, Popovych, Moncoutie, Moinard, Le Mevel, Rolland, Fedrigo, Chavanel, Wegmann. My Bets: 2pts Oscar Freire @ 51 2pts Alessandro Ballan @ 49 1pt E/W Jens Voigt @ 51 (E/W 1/4 1-2-3) 1pt E/W Pippo Pozatto @ 61 (E/W 1/4 1-2-3) 1pt Peter Velits @ 50 1pt Franco Pellizotti @ 26 0.5pts Julian Dean @ 200 (instinctive bet, think Garmin will look to put in the break someone who can win) 0.5pts Heinrich Haussler @ 95 (same principle as Julian Dean, but for CTT.)

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Ballan out to 60 on Betfair. Gonna have another nibble at him (1pt) as I really have a strong feeling today.

[funkthis]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I've been wathcing this thread since the first stage, so I thought I might add my 2 cents for todays stage. I see another breakaway win today, no other teams seems to want to pace the peloton so Astana just seem happy to let riders who are no threat to them ride away. The second climb on todays stage is a steep climb and I wouldn't be suprised to see one of the Schleck boys or even Cadel Evans to lift the pace and really rip the peloton apart. They desperately need some time to claw their way up the order. In saying that I see a breakaway forming just before the first climb and it will just be a question of if they can hold a 1 minute lead by the time they get to the second climb summit. I think it's a perfect day for Txurruka, Ballan and Flecha (he's in just about every breakaway, it's only a matter of time before one sticks). Some theory as Crouchie today, stay clear of the Frenchies; they might have one in the breakway but I think the real stage threats like Moncoutie will save their day of glory till either Bastille Day or until they get to the Alps. I'm taking 2 units each (each way) on Txurruka, Ballan and Flecha I'll also take 4 units on Thor Hushovd h2h over Oscar Freire @ $2.25. There are sprint points up for grabs towards the end of todays stage and Thor proved yesterday that while he's not a great climber he can still ride uphill at a decent speed. I fancy him to stick with the peloton and use up his gas to win some sprint points. He's going to lose some points to Cavendish in the flatter stages (assuming Cav can stay in the tour) so Thor is going to have to be proactive if we wants to win green on these mountain stages.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Looks like today's selection has been made, with Voigt, Pellizotti, Fedrigo and Duque in the group. Wishing I had put more on Franco now, but if he can claim maximum KOTM points then he would be well in the hunt for that classification :hope

[TheProphet]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Pelozotti now down to 2-1 to win stage, regret not following you on that one crouchie, hopefully he will come through for you though!

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26)

Pelozotti now down to 2-1 to win stage' date=' regret not following you on that one crouchie, hopefully he will come through for you though![/quote'] You should be safe now :lol Normally I'd be grumbling in such a situation, but Freire now dominates the winners market. :hope Also going for what I think should be a somewhat saver bet: 5pts Jose Joaquin Rojas Gil @ 5 Maybe Ballan or Pozzato are in the peleton too for a couple more options. Praying for Freire though.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) **** Me. I had 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th and 9th in that stage. :wall:wall:wall:wall:wall

[kevshat]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Mightily unlucky that Crouchie. Never known such bad luck mate. The big hit is just round the corner though :ok.

[Magic_Boy]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) What do you think for tommorrow Crouchie? Is the stage for Cavendish again?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26)

What do you think for tommorrow Crouchie? Is the stage for Cavendish again?

I hope not, but with the luck I am having this tour and also with Cavendish he probably will. Anyway, no race radios for this stage. Plus, it is Bastille Day (French National Holiday), so today all the frenchmen try to win. This will be my focus. Sadly, I've already ****** up once, I transposed odds and stake for Anthony Geslin, so I've ended up with Geslin 6pts @ 10 :wall:wall This tour is really starting to annoy me :spank Bets 6pts Anthony Geslin @ 10 (Stupid Stupid Error) 2pts Alessandro Ballan @ 51 (Not French, but as I have mentioned earlier, he wants to win a stage and is running out of ones with suitable profiles. He also has attacked on a Bastille day before too) 1pt David Moncoutie @ 101 1pt Roman Feillu @ 85 0.5pts Stephane Auge @ 120 This is not my final list of bets, I am still finalising and getting matched. My main bet though is going to be Sylvain Chavanel. Only been in one break so far this tour and I think this is the stage he really wants to win. As a side note, if Chavanel makes the break, that is one less sprinter's team to help chase down the break. Aside from Columbia and Garmin and possibly Milram, it's hard to see many sprinters teams chasing. Also, AG2R, they are unlikely to control peleton the way Saxo Bank did in earlier flat stages. They will of course try and protect yellow, but their desire to protect the race like the bigger teams will be less (if that makes any sense). Also, lack of race radios could well play a big part as knowledge of time gaps etc. wont be there. If Columbia chase down the break I will be both mightily impressed and mightily annoyed.

[Magic_Boy]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) What about this bets Crouchie 7pts Cavendish @ 2.25 0.5pts Chavanel @ 21 0.5pts Dessel @ 51 0.5pts Farrar @ 21 0.5pts Auge @ 51 0.5pts Pineau @ 51 0.5pts R Feillu @ 51

[Magic_Boy]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I don't know very much about them, only from tv. I hope to have luck with this bets

[Tulenos]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Kreuziger was quoted on our tv today and said the radios thingy was still being negotiated and that it rather looks like they would be allowed.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Can't really fault those bets Magic, though I recommend opening a Betfair account - You'll get much better odds, particularly for longer shots. Do they accept accounts from Romania? Very interesting developments Tulenos. I know some teams (mainly Astana) were protesting on safety grounds but given the presence of an official radio channel I thought they would be allayed. That's obviously going to be a big hindrance to my bets if it turns out to be true, but hopefully guys like Chavanel can make the break and reduce the number of teams who will work to catch it. Thanks for the info. As a side note, the French National Road race championships were held without race radios. It's worth looking at the results just to see who might be able to take advantage tactically (assuming that the ban remains)

[Magic_Boy]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I don't know if Betfair accept accounts from Romania. I bet for long time at Bwin thsts why i bet here on TDF too. I know that is not the best bookie for TDF but now is too late to change because i dont have much money on my creditcard to put in betfair too. I hope to have luck here with my bets and rise the profit a bit. If Crouchie you can comment more in depth about tommorrow race, about every rider you can think have a good chance to win i would apreciate very much. The bets which i wrote here are in play right now but maybe after your comments i can find another one which can be better than my curent bets. GL too all

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) It's really hard to tell because it is a flat stage. The previous few stages were a bit easier to call because Cavendish was not going to be part of the main finish and riders had to have certain abilities. If there are indeed no radios then there will be lots of attacking early on. Chavanel is very experienced, very good at getting in the breaks and generally speaking a strong rider. That's why I like him so much. He's also a smart rider, so he can use that to not only be a part of the break but also win. Alessandro Ballan knows how to win races. He is champion of the world, former Italian Champion, very strong in the classics races. He has stated he wants to win a stage (he is recovering from injury). His team have been very quiet so far, participating in few breaks and generally offered nothing. Their sprinter is crap (Furlan) and they have no Frenchmen in their team. They will want to be represented, Ballan is the man to do it. He knows how to win races too, which is why he is a big chance. Katusha have also shown a strong desire to be repped in all the breaks. Again, look no further than Pippo Pozzato. He is the current Italian champion and knows how to win races too. That's the real key, not just backing breakaway men but those who can win it too. Beyond that, it's a bit of guess work. Geslin is a good chance, he performed strongly in the radio free national championships. Cofidis should be there, I expect Dumoulin, Moncoutie or Auge. Aside from the sprinters though, Chavanel and Ballan are the ones I would look to most heavily invest in, and indeed that is what I have done. Maybe Feillu too, because he is a sprinter, so if he makes the break he is very well positioned.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) It's also worth noting too, that if I were to back riders based on my knowledge of their abilities, then I would be pretty unprofitable. It's not really a place where I have an advantage. It's my (perceived) ability to interpret how a stage will unfold and the strategies of the key teams, particularly in terms of latitude and motivations that I generally consider to be my edge. Something I feel I've done pretty well so far, but without any impressive results.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) This is the full list of riders I've backed today. Most of the odds are with Betfair, except Ballan. I got in early on Chavanel and scored a bit of 36s, but he is quite short now. Aside from Chavanel (7pts) and Ballan (2pts) they are all one point bets or less (except for where I ****** up with Geslin) Anthony Geslin David Moncoutie - 101 Sylvain Chavanel - 26-36 Alessandro Ballan - 51 Romain Feillu - 85 Stephane Auge - 120 William Bonnet - 210 Thomas Voeckler - 75-80 Samuel Dumoulin - 100 Filippo Pozzato - 100 Laurent Lefevre - 101 That's pretty much a finalised list. I expect to add one more AG2R rider, possibly Dupont or Mondory. Still a fair few runners taken though, and absolutely screwed if the break is caught, which given how much I wanted it to be caught on Sunday, is probably going to happen.

[Magic_Boy]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I hope to have luck with one of my bets. Cavendish, Chavanel and Feillu are my main bets after Coruchie's comentary. If not i'll be -10 tommorrow

[funkthis]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Chavanel looks like a solid bet but I also like the look of Stephane Auge to take a win on Bastille Day. Ciolek also interests me as he's a strong rider who eyed off a stage win at the start of the tour and this might be his chance. Canvendish is a deserving favourite, but it was a tough few days for him in the mountain stages. I know there was a rest day yesterday but I still question how much energy his team have left to chase down a breakaway when they know they have the toughest mountain stages to come. We all know Astana have no interest in chasing down breakways with no contenders and the other teams seem to be leaving the chase either too late or not wanting to chew up their gas before the hardest stages. For this reason I fancy a breakway which will inevitably have at LEAST 2 French riders. My bets for tomorrow are (each way 1 unit, unless stated otherwise): Ciolek (2 units) Chavanel Auge Roche Boonen h2h Farrar, I'll chuck 3 units on Boonen (who is in horrible form but still a better sprinter) @$2.70 I also noticed Bet365 have 'Frenchmen to win the stage' at $3.50 which looks like an interesting bet. I'll hold off on this one until I get some more info though. Good Luck Guys FYI I'm down 10 units on this years tour, it's been a tough one to pick.

[Magic_Boy]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I've won the bet with Cavendish. He is too strong on flat and has a really good team behind him. I'm back in profit right now with this winning bet and i hope tommorrow to find another good bet, maybe Cavendish again but near the finish is a 4th category climb which can change something here. After Crouchie's comentary about tommorrow's race i try to put some bets. GL to all and all my respect for Crouchie and for his hard work until now and from now on until the finish of TDF and i hope in the end you will find a high winning bet and come in profit because you deserve this for sure.