Cosmetic Bob Posted July 4, 2009 Share Posted July 4, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Great start for my men Kloden & Leipheimer in good position in 4th & 6th. Lets see what happens friday in first mountain stage. Menchov & Sastre should lose more time on team time trial tuesday, 37km aint looking good for either of them imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 5, 2009 Author Share Posted July 5, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Very impressive performance from Kloden I thought. Though I doubt he'll win I think his podium finish odds are still quite strong. Missed the 2.37 on Cav at Paddy Power. The evens on him now somehow feel a little underwhelming. Two small bets for me whilst I contemplate Cavendish. 2pts Heinrich Haussler - Top 3 Finish @ 8 Sportingbet UK Haussler was 2nd at San Remo and has had some very impressive results this year. The stage is very flat which probably doesn't suit Freire, whilst Boonen and Hushovd haven't shown too much form. May not compete for the sprints if he has to work for Hushovd but if he does I think this is a great shout. 1pt Winning Nations - Germany @ 19 Sportingbet UK The weird this is, Sportingbet have the German Ciolek at 17 to win the stage. So why is this 19? Granted they are bookies odds, but even if you go by Betfair, Ciolek is 27 and Haussler is 30. That alone says this bet is overpriced, and of course there is the extremely remote chance that a German wins in a breakaway (Wegmann or Martin perhaps?). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 5, 2009 Author Share Posted July 5, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Can't really bring myself to take Cavendish at these odds. Dremeber makes a good point about that final little incline too. In fact, it's the basis for the last bet I'm having for stage 2 Luis Leon Sanchez @ 101 Sportsbet LL won a stage in the tour last year in a similar profile stage (albeit little bit bigger climb - cat 3.). He is the best descender in the peloton and given the absence of Valverde I would imagine that Caisse will be looking for as many stage wins as they can get. If I were a director of Caisse I'd have marked this finish as one for LLS to get interested in and certainly that is what I am hoping for here tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 5, 2009 Author Share Posted July 5, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Just stuck a couple of points on Tom Boonen @ 20 on Betfair. This should be a stage sprint and though Cav is a clear and dominant fav I can't help but feel that the Belgian is a little overpriced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 5, 2009 Author Share Posted July 5, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I hate Cavendish ever so much. -14 now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue_lion121 Posted July 5, 2009 Share Posted July 5, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) truly deserved...he has a great team in fornt of him and he probably will win tomorrow too... haussler only on 15 but i guess he will do better in the future... team katusha let me down...pozatto especially Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 5, 2009 Share Posted July 5, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) tommorrow cav is favourite again, hausler farrar and hushovd can be there too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 5, 2009 Share Posted July 5, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) 2 good bets for tommorrow can be 10/10 on Cavendish, is too good and really make a difference between him and the rest and the profil of this stage at finish is very flat, but the odd is small only 1,50 at Bwin and the second one is a h2h between Hushovd and Freire with 6/10 on Hushovd at odd 1,95 at Bwin What do you think guys? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 5, 2009 Share Posted July 5, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Another one could be h2h between Farrar and Boonen with 1,60 on Farrar at Sportingbet. Farrar i think is much better than Boonen at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stereoman Posted July 5, 2009 Share Posted July 5, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Best available odds on Mark Cavendish to win Stage 3 appars to be 4/6 over at Sportingbet/Stan James. http://www.oddschecker.com/other-sports/cycling/tour-de-france/tour-de-france-stage-3-%5Bmarseille-la-grande-motte-196-5-km%5D/win-market Today's Bettingzone Market News: 1730: With his typical late charge for the line, British sprint king cyclist Mark Cavendish gave the bookies another early stage bashing in this years Tour de France after being backed from 5/4 into even money with Corals prior to winning Stage 2. The result proved a poor one for the Barking firm, and with the favourite Fabian Cancellara winning the opening Time Trial on Saturday, it could prove an expensive Tour for the layers, especially as Cavendish is expected to win a few more stages. "Not the best start to a Tour for us, we laid the favourite (Cancellara) in the time trial, and with Cavendish proving popular once again to out sprint his rivals, we are on the back foot already and we still have nineteen stages to go!" said Coral spokesman Gary Burton. Alberto Contador is the outright favourite at 4/5 (from 10/11), with Lance Armstrong next in the betting at 9/2. Cavendish is the 8/13 favourite (from 5/6) to take the sprinters Green Jersey. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue_lion121 Posted July 5, 2009 Share Posted July 5, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Farrar seems great so : Farrar to finish in top3 @ 3.00 SportingBet 5/10 - probably the only bet for stage 3...anyways..the most falttest stage so far...by far...masive sprint for sure...cavendish big favourite becouse of his team...but Farrar could be 2nd or third with ease Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 5, 2009 Share Posted July 5, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) We could have the same podium tommorrow as today was with Cav 1st Farrar and Hushovd on 2nd or 3rd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 5, 2009 Share Posted July 5, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I don't understand why Freire is so weak in this first stages of TdF. I understand Boonen has some problems but Freire? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 6, 2009 Author Share Posted July 6, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I think Freire also got caught up in the accident. Maybe not off the road but he certainly got held up by it which is more than enough at that stage of the race. Cavendish really should win today, but I hate backing, mainly because he has never won when I could. Last year I was like, watch out for Cavendish, backed him in the first couple of flat stages and for green and all he did was cost me a stack. That he now wins at such short odds absolutely disgusts me. 10pts Mark Cavendish @ 1.75 Sportingbet AU Very flat stage, Cavendish has the best train and is the fastest. If he doesn't win I'm going to devote my time to tracking him down! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted July 6, 2009 Share Posted July 6, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Hard luck Crouchie. :hope Cav can do the business for you today mate :ok. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 6, 2009 Author Share Posted July 6, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) A couple of small bets to add 3pts Farrar Top 3 @ 3.25 Sportingbet AU Looks a pretty consistant finisher and the work by his team to get him to the line last night was pretty impressive. Had a nice train in Maarskant and Dean and these odds are better than Betfair so a bet that I like to think has definite value and a strong chance. 1pt Gerald Ciolek @ 38 Betfair More of a personal insurance bet than anything. If Cav were to lose to Ciolek it would annoy me on an unimaginable level. Taking him removes this factor (yes, I know it's not really a reason why you should follow, and you probably shouldn't :ok) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 6, 2009 Author Share Posted July 6, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Very interesting split going on here! With all the High Road riders in there I've had a cheeky stab at Mark Renshaw to win the stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted July 6, 2009 Share Posted July 6, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Nice work with Cav, Crouchie. Stick with us Brits when it comes to cycling mate ;). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 6, 2009 Author Share Posted July 6, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Not too pleased with that result actually. My Renshaw play didn't come off and with Tony Martin finishing in that top group I think he's just lost a fair bit of latitude to go into breakaways for polka points - he might now shift his focus onto an overall GC position too :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 6, 2009 Share Posted July 6, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Superb finish in this stage. What about tommorrow? Astana, Saxo Bank or Columbia? At Astana could be major problems after today race, Saxo Bank have Cancellara and Larsson and are a little fresh than Columbia and Columbia... i don't know what to say about them... i think they take some medicine or something, they are too powerfull right now. You can see them today when all of them ride hard for 30km for Cav. I think i will take Astana and Columbia at small odds but i'm not decided yet What do you think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 6, 2009 Author Share Posted July 6, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I think Garmin Slipstream are the team to look out for. Zabriskie, Wiggins, Miller, VDV in their squad. Had no riders in the front split so should a) have used less energy and b) extra motivated for redemption. Garmin put big emphasis on team trials, they see it as one of their best chances for stage wins. Will wait for odds before making any move. Still underwhelmed by how today's stage went...am really now just waiting for Stage 7 to make a play I'm keen on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 6, 2009 Share Posted July 6, 2009 Is good what you say. Zabriskie, Wiggins, Miller are all very good on TT and can go with a stage win now because are problems at Astana, Columbia is tired and Saxo doesn't impress me. What are your thoughts for stage 7 because you mentioned about it ? :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 6, 2009 Share Posted July 6, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I put 4/10 on Garmin for tommorrow at odd 4.25 at Bwin. First part of the stage has up and downs but the last part is very flat. I hope Garmin will impress me tommorrow and take a victory in this stage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 7, 2009 Author Share Posted July 7, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) After a rather underwhelming hit on Cavendish I'm still -13.25 for the Tour. Is good what you say. Zabriskie, Wiggins, Miller are all very good on TT and can go with a stage win now because are problems at Astana, Columbia is tired and Saxo doesn't impress me. What are your thoughts for stage 7 because you mentioned about it ? :D I'm holding off announcing them just yet. The Time trail will play an important role, specifically which team will control the peloton in stage 7. Preference is for Astana to control the stage, but comments from Bruyneel indicate they prefer Cancellara to stay in yellow. Onto tonight 4pts Garmin Slipstream @ 4.95 Betfair This stage is a priority for Garmin. Though they have Farrar, he is unlikely to beat Cavendish, so this is their chance for a stage win. Whilst it would be naive to suggest that they'll win because they want to, it's relevant to note that Garmin will be willing to sacrifice more in pursuit of today's victory. Spartacus isn't a team and his team-mates aren't at the same level of Garmin. Astana are very capable, but my impression is they don't want to be in yellow, and I have no doubt that Bruyneel will not care if Garmin win this team trial. Tomorrow's stage is a sprinter's finish and whilst Columbia have stated stage wins are their ambition, after yesterday's effort, I think they might ride within themselves and conserve energy for tomorrow's chase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 7, 2009 Author Share Posted July 7, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) A couple of other things that I've noted which may or may not be useful. Haussler has stated in a blog he is pretty much leading out for Thor this tour. Looking for him to win the sprints is probably a bad idea. Michael Rogers' poor Stage 1 Time Trial is in part due to his chain coming off. He lost at least 30 seconds as a result. The word from Columbia is that Rogers' objective is stage wins and their limited GC efforts will go into Kim Kirchen. Perhaps not news you can bank on but that's what's been said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cosmetic Bob Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) HAHA GO ANDREAS KLODEN MY SON :loon im confident he'll be in top 3 at end of fridays stage. Major time losses to all the other general claissiment contenders they've got a mountain to climb now GET IT HAHA :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Astana 1st today... they were too strong. Really good race by Garmin but not good enough to beat Astana. I'm + 20.00 right now in profit at TdF. For tommorrow? Again Cavendish or could be other rider, a surprise? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 7, 2009 Author Share Posted July 7, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) -17.25 for me now :unsure That's only going to get worse if this ridiculous trend of every single odds-on favourite winning keeps up. The beauty of cycling is supposed to be that you get a variety of surprises due to the very layered nature of the event :spank Will be very happy to move onto the Mountains! Apparently there's a good chance of some more cross winds tomorrow, so that should be interesting. Cavendish will almost certainly win, but I'll betting on the assumption that a breakaway succeeds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 7, 2009 Author Share Posted July 7, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) An early bet based on what I think are favourable odds and match-up 5pts Jurgen Van Den Broeck to beat Johan Van Summeren @ 2.00 Sportingbet UK In the 2 previous flat stages, Van Den Broeck finished with the main peloton and Cadel, whilst Van Summeren finished behind the main peloton. Van Den Broeck was dropped early in the team time trial whilst Van Summeren worked very hard with Cadel. Perhaps Van Den Broeck used some energy riding by himself, but I would have thought that Van Summeren would have put in a greater effort trying to keep up with Cadel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Is good your bet but at Bwin doesn't exist. Only bet which i see for tommorrow is a h2h between Freire and Farrar and i think Farrar can be again in front of Freire but i won't make any bet for tommorrow race. If anyone wants to put a bet i suggest 5/10 on Farrar in h2h with Freire at 1,95 at Bwin GL to all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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