Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26)

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Bad luck Magic. It certainly has been the most annoying and frustrating tour I can remember. Everything about it has been horrible, and that includes the sporting aspect of it. Expecting Columbia to try and bring it back today, but think there is a chance that they fail, particularly if Garmin can get a man in the break. If they do, then they obviously wont help chase, which could be the different. Am taking a combination of riders (sprinters and breakaway) with a little bit of a role reversal too. The Break Riders 2pts Alessandro Ballan @ 38 Basically, this is Ballan's last chance to win a stage. Odds here are much more acceptable and I will have one final roll of the dice with the World Champion. 0.5pts JA Flecha @ 71 Rabobank still disappoint. Flecha looks to attack, and I will take him here for this reason and the fact that he can actually win from a break. 0.5pts Stephane Auge @ 126 Cofidis normally in a break. He's my nominated Cofidis rider for today. 0.5pts Martijn Maaskant @ 101 0.5pts David Millar @ 51 Garmin manager Jonathan Vaughters said the other day that these two riders were told to look for the break. The same may be said again, and if they do get in a break then Garmin will not chase, increasing the odds of the break winning. Both these riders are a strong chance of winning from such a break too, with Maaskant having a strong sprint and Millar a great TT. The Sprinters 2pts Tyler Farrar @ 23 Farrar is the only one who has looked close to beating Cavendish, and if Garmin can get a little luck with their train, then maybe Farrar can finally get the win he and his team are searching for. 1pt Gerald Ciolek @ 80 I like Ciolek, I think he has great potential. Milram tried to use a half train the other day which had the potential to be effective. Velits looks to have a very good sprint and if he can provide a strong lead out then maybe today is the day the German gets a win. The Role Reversal 1pt Daniele Bennati @ 70 Bennati won a stage in 2006/7 in a breakaway, after sprinting poorly up until then. If there is a break today, I think there's a solid chance Bennati looks to be in it. If he is successful, he is obviously a big chance to win it being a strong sprinter. If this theory fails, there's always a small chance he wins a bunch sprint. 1pt Tom Boonen @ 85 Poor tour for the Belgian. He has said he might look for a break just to give himself a shot at a win. Basically the same reasons applied to Bennati apply to Boonen.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) An in-play bet: 5pts Sergei Ivanov @ 5.80 He's a strong rider and I fear him a fair bit here, so am making this essentially as a partial saver. Am obviously not wanting him to win though.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) **** ME. Had both Ciolek and Bennati in that break and both were 3-1 favourites, but neither ******* wins. And to say nothing of the fact that I've had Ivanov on other stages too. Freire the other day @ 51s, traded at 2s and he doesn't ******* win either (the same stage I have 2nd @ 26s and 5th @ 50s). Millar traded at 1.60 when I had him at 100 too. You'd think at least one of them would win :spank I'm done with this tour too.

[Magic_Boy]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) It's too unpredictable to make really nice profit. I'm waiting for the finish of TDF to see if my antepost bets give me some profits. I put Contador as a winner, Astana as team winner, A Scheleck for young rider and the other 2 are both on Freire to beat Cavendish and i think are lost already. I'm waiting to begin Italy, Romania and England at football to make more profit than in TDF. GL guys

[stereoman]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Today's Bettingzone Market News: 1745: There's dramatic news coming in from the Tour de France as Mark Cavendish has apparently been disqualified from today's stage. That means he loses his points from the stage which leaves him 18 adrift of green jersey leader Thor Hushovd. That's a big gap to make up and not surprisingly it's had a huge effect on the green jersey betting - Hushovd was 4/6 but is now 1/3 with Paddy Power and shorter still on Betfair. Cav is trading at bigger than 3/1 on the exchange.

[funkthis]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Alright, I'm going to jump back into some TDF action now that we're in the Alps and the REAL action regarding general classification starts today. Contador and Astana will really look to put the pedal down now; they can't rely on Contador to be in yellow with under a minute leading up to the Time Trial; he's a decent time trialist but he'll need more than a 1 minute buffer to feel safe. That's why I really think they will play into Contador's stength and really stretch out a lead now that we're in the alps. One thing you can pretty much garantuee is that Nocentini won't be in yellow by the end of the stage; the pace will be far too hot for him and his team. I don't see a breakaway winning it today, the finish to todays stage is vicious; it's a stage for the really strong mountaing riders. For that reason I'm putting 2 units eachway on: Frank Schleck (Astana won't let brother Andy get too far in front, but Frank is an equally good mountain rider) Mikel Astarloza (once again a strong mountain rider but he's having a quiet tour thus far, he can really change the pace up mountains when we wants too)

[Cosmetic Bob]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Tight race for 2nd & 3rd places now. Lance seemed to be suffering at end of todays stage. Interesting what Astana have in mind now. Don't see the point of Contador attacking again unless for stage win, he'll add more time to Schleck in time trial anyway. Kloden has gotta attack, hes just waiting for the right moment, liked what he did final 200m 2day gaining 6 secs on Lance, maybe its a hint!

[Cosmetic Bob]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Oh yeah by the way Crouch Potato, Pellizotti looking very good in the KOTM jersey for you, should win it now. Ok to cover my Kloden e/w i have: Bradley Wiggins @ 33/1 e/w (1/4 123) Ladbrokes I are getting just a shade over 8/1 for the each-way part if he is on the podium. 3rd at the moment, he seems to be climbing exceptionally well & wont lose time in time trali, this is really a cover for my e/w on my kloden bet.

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Given Top 3 for Wiggins is just 2.2 on Betfair that's a great price on Wiggins. Even accounting for the lost stake on the outright you're still getting a 3-1 return on your total investment. Wouldn't actually be surprised if both make the podium given how much time Andy is likely to lose in the time trial relative to the time he made in the last mountain stage. As for Pellizotti, I'm still quite cautious. A lot of mountain points to still be contested, though the real concern is that he crashes out or there is some sort of doping scandal. That said, I expect he'll win either today or tomorrow's stage.

[Machevort]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Hushovd @ 20 Betfair. Cavendish should be gone on the last col. Ideal finish for hushovd (7.2 %) :hope for a Mass Sprint.

[zimpan25]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) No bets for today m8's?

[Crouch Potato]

Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) When he can, Cavendish likes to give his lead out man stage wins as a reward. He did it last year in the Giro (Greipel) and I think for Eisel in the Tour of Switzerland. As such I've taken Mark Renshaw @ 250s. That said, with this tour field it's probably unlikely to happen today, and given I am on Renshaw, it's now certain not to happen. (I have decided that if I back something, it's chances of winning almost turn non-existant. Case in point, I backed Tony Martin yesterday at 85s, and also Pellizotti @ 48s - They would both go on to trade at 3 and 5 respectively) There are generally some strong men who go on late attacks in this stage too - indeed I believe Cancellara and Vinokourov both won doing so in recent years. Whilst Cancellara is here again, if this scenario comes to fruition I believe the man most likely to achieve it is actually the Russian Ignatiev, who has proven very aggressive and strong on the flats so far this tour.