Crouch Potato Posted July 8, 2009 Author Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) One that I thought about overnight, but woke up to see that the ******* price has moved. I'll still take it anyway I spose 3pts Winning Nationality - French @ 12 Sportingbet UK Should be some more crosswinds tomorrow which will play havoc. After stage 3 I expect the top teams to be jostling for front position. Columbia don't seem to be getting much support in helping chase down the breakaways and so I think a breakaway is a decent chance of succeeding. If it does, then you can expect a fair few french riders to be in it, particularly given teams like FDJ and Cofidis are the teams that focus on putting men into the breakaways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 8, 2009 Author Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) And a few small nibbles based on the assumption that a break succeeds today. Criteria I've used are if the rider is a) has a strong history of breakaway presence and b) has a reasonable sprint and is thus more likely to win if in a break. My belief is that with sprinters teams reluctant to help Columbia reel in breaks, the possibility of Saxo Bank relinquishing the yellow jersey for tactical reasons and the possibility of strong cross winds having an effect on the GC battles all contribute to the chances of a break succeeding :hope 0.5pts E/W Nicholas Roche @ 201 Bet365 (1/4 1-2-3) - Criteria B 0.5pts Jens Voigt @ 126 TAB - Criteria A 0.5pts Laurent Lefevre @ 220 Betfair - Criteria A 0.5pts Anthony Geslin @ 200 Betfair - Criteria B 0.5pts Amets Txurruka @ 85 Betfair - Criteria A Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 8, 2009 Author Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) A much better day overall but still disappointed not to have taken the 17s on offer for the French bet after Stage 4. Geslin would have been a dream result but not to be. Van Den Broeck came ahead of Van Summeren so nice to get the main bet up too. +21.5 for me now with what I hope will be some better betting opportunities in the mountains. Early and somewhat long winded thoughts tomorrow are that it's definitely not a Cavendish stage. It looks like there is a 500m stretch with 2km to go with a gradient of 6%. I imagine that would be a great place for a puncher with a strong finish to attack. The Schlecks would generally be a good choice but being the day before a HC finish they might be content to stay with the main GC contenders. That said, it's a good place for one of those riders who lost a bit of time to try and make a bit back (e.g. Evans). The finish is in Spain, so that may motivate some riders. Freire is a good shout though he has looked off so far. Pozzato is a chance too though I actually had a different Katusha rider in mind (it was a funny angle that I had in my head) At this stage, the rider I'm looking at is Kim Kirchen, but unsure of how he will be priced. Anything above 16 would be superb but I expect something between 8-11. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) My bet with Farrar was ok finally after a surprising victory. What about Voigt Crouch ? Is a good puncheur from what i know. Obvious that Freire, Pozzato and Kirchen are the favourites and the odds from Sportingbet reflects this but who knows... maybe again will be a surprise tommorrow I need ur advice and opinion Crouch about tommorrow :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 8, 2009 Author Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Voigt is more of a fighter than a puncher. He's crafty and intelligence but at his age he lacks the acceleration to win on this type of finish. Not many odds out so far so I can't really decide until I look at odds. From what I can gather this stage finish is similar to but not quite as hard as the finish into stage 1 last year (Valverde won). It may help to check out last year's results in this stage as a bit of a guide - Gilbert 2nd (not here), Pineau 3rd (QST rider this year), Kirchen 4th. Pozzato, Freire and Hushovd between 8th-13th. Many Columbia riders could win I feel - they are after stage wins and Kirchen, Martin, Rogers and Momfort all have the ability to win this. It's important to note that the stage after this one finishes on a HC climb - those serious about the GC, I tend to discount them a little here. It's hard to say who this is from Columbia though. All of these riders (excluding Rogers) won a stage in the Tour de Suisse. I will check out those stage profiles and see if it offers any insight. On Rogers, he came 3rd in a TdF stage a few years back as a T-Mobile rider, I think he and a team-mate (Kessler?) broke away on what was a generally flat stage with a sharp, small hill towards the end If there is one thing to learn from past stages this year, it is that Katusha are keen for a win (Ignatiav in the breaks). Their best climber is Karpets - he is not good enough to win the HC finishes, he may in a break but I would not want to have anything riding on it. These types of stages are perhaps their best opportunity (Napolitano will not beat Cavendish). Pay big attention to Pozzato - he can win if it is a sprint and also if he tries to attack with 2km or so to go. However, Katusha also have a russian on their squad, Sergei Ivanov. He has had some good results in the classic races (Amstel Gold etc.) and my gut instinct is that this finish would suit riders of the hilly one day classics. Maybe two Katusha cracks at the cherry - Ivanov to try in a break and Pozzato to sprint it out if it fails? Unfortunately, not many odds are available, so I wont be able to place any early bets for this. I will post some bets tomorrow, including something I have an interest in for the tour as opposed to the stage. Nice work on the Farrar bet too :clap I tend to think that Freire is perhaps too out of form to win tomorrow - it is in Spain though :\ My other piece of advice is to look for some bookies who maybe over-estimate the flat finish - there could be some tasty H2H bets out there - Something like Hushovd v Farrar, I would think Hushovd is a big favourite. Basically, a strong flat sprinter against a slightly less strong sprinter who has shown a better ability to make it over the hills is good :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Nice work today Crouchie. Called it perfectly mate and close to nailing the big one as well :ok. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Thx for advice Crouch. I think i'll look for some h2h first and after that if i dont find anything good i'll put small stakes on some riders which i think can win tommorrow Anyway i am waiting for your final preview Crouchie and after it i'll put my bets GL to all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) FRom what i see at bookies, are some good odds for Pineau, Kreuziger, T Martin, Veikkanen, Luis Leon Sanchez, Ignatiev. What is ur opinion about this people Crouchie? Especially Kreuziger Veikkanen and Sanchez Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) What do you think about this bet Crouchie, h2h Pozzato vs Cancellara with 1,72 odd on Pozzato ? You said that Pozzato could be one of the favourites and i think is better than Cancellara at this profile of race. This is the single value bet in my eyes i've found at Bwin for this stage but i need some opinions about it if you can help me Crouchie :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Nice work today Crouchie. Called it perfectly mate and close to nailing the big one as well :ok. Cheers Kev :ok Appreciate the support. FRom what i see at bookies, are some good odds for Pineau, Kreuziger, T Martin, Veikkanen, Luis Leon Sanchez, Ignatiev. What is ur opinion about this people Crouchie? Especially Kreuziger Veikkanen and Sanchez Sanchez - A rider I really like. His biggest strength is his descent. A win here for him would not completely surprise but I much prefer him on stages that finish down hill. It is a shame his team mate Rodriguez isn't here, he would have been a great bet. Kreuziger - My read is he is riding for a high overall. I'd be quite surprised if he won. Veikkanen - I honestly know nothing about him. Being in Australia I don't see too much cycling aside from the tour. My advantage I feel is my ability to read between the lines and interpret possible strategies. It's something I seem to enjoy and do ok at. However, when it comes to these sorts of riders I've got nothing :lol What do you think about this bet Crouchie, h2h Pozzato vs Cancellara with 1,72 odd on Pozzato ? You said that Pozzato could be one of the favourites and i think is better than Cancellara at this profile of race. This is the single value bet in my eyes i've found at Bwin for this stage but i need some opinions about it if you can help me Crouchie :) It is not a lock. Cancellara did quite well over the hills in Tour de Suisse. Given the profile of the stage I also would not be surprised if he did go for the win - he is very powerful attacking with 1-2km to go and staying ahead. That said, I think in a bunch sprint Pozzato finishes ahead of Spartacus about 7-8 times out of 10. All in all it is value, but I would refrain overstaking :ok First bet for me, but unlikely to be the last 10pts Stage Head to Head - Kim Kirchen to beat Oscar Pereiro @ 2.45 Sportsbet Ok, Pereiro placing well overall in this stage wouldn't surprise me. But to be favoured to beat Kirchen? No way! For mine, Kirchen finishes ahead of Pereiro at least 6 times out of 10, and with the stage profile, I would almost want to say he finishes ahead 9.5 times out of 10 (this would probably be a little over-estimating, but not a lot). Anyway, odds of 2.45 suggest he finishes ahead less than half the time. Absolutely not true! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Last night I said I had a tour (as opposed to stage) bet that I was looking at and here it is. Actually one I've already taken for a tiny bit but time to up the ante: 2.5pts King of the Mountains - Laurens Ten Dam @ 101 Sportingbet AU I said originally that Ten Dam has given a small indication that he would like to try for polkas, but kept the interest small because it would seem unlikely that he would be given a license to try for it. Well, Menchov has now lost a chunk of time and is frankly an unrealistic chance of a podium and no chance of winning. Gesink broke his wrist and he is now out of the tour. It is a disaster for Rabobank, particularly with Freire not firing and the allegations regarding the Austrian Blood Blank affair. Rabobank need to salvage something, and given their past history with Rasmussen, why not the polka why Ten Dam? There are plenty of points available on breakaway stages, making this title easier to claim for a non GC rider. If he still has to support Menchov, no reason he can't wait for him at the front after scoring some key mountain points. And one more stage bet, though not done still 1pt Maxime Monfort @ 91.5 Betstar Columbia have many options they can use to try and win this stage and Monfort is definitely one of them. He has the ability to attack with a couple of kms left to go and given the team ethos of Columbia, their general habit of sharing the stage wins, I think Monfort could well be one of their preferences for the stage. Particularly if they are trying to save riders like Rogers for tomorrow's stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) First bet for me, but unlikely to be the last 10pts Stage Head to Head - Kim Kirchen to beat Oscar Pereiro @ 2.45 Sportsbet Ok, Pereiro placing well overall in this stage wouldn't surprise me. But to be favoured to beat Kirchen? No way! For mine, Kirchen finishes ahead of Pereiro at least 6 times out of 10, and with the stage profile, I would almost want to say he finishes ahead 9.5 times out of 10 (this would probably be a little over-estimating, but not a lot). Anyway, odds of 2.45 suggest he finishes ahead less than half the time. Absolutely not true! This bet has just been cancelled. Apparently they meant to put in Oscar Freire instead of Oscar Pereiro :wall:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Back to tour betting 7pts Top 10 Finish - Franco Pellizotti @ 7.50 Sportingbet Franco is only 2.5minutes behind Armstrong and Cancellara. He's not the best time trialist but I feel this may help in that if he chooses ride away on a mountain stage, he may not be a marked man. He came 3rd in the Giro this year so he obviously has the ability. I actually think there are a lot of comparisons between Pellizotti and Ricco of last year who went looking for stage wins and as a result, climbed nicely in the GC (the difference being, I don't anticipate on Pellizotti testing positive for anything, except profitability!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) My bets for this stage are: 0.5pts Fabian Cancellara @ 17.00 Bwin 0.5pts Luis Leon Sanchez @ 29.00 Bwin 4pts Stage H2H Pozzato to beat Cancellara @ 1.72 Bwin GL to all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) was thinking about taking Armstrong with the aim of laying it off later, price has come down to 3.5. Have I missed the boat ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Personally, I think you've missed the boat to back LA with the view to trade. The most likely place I can see Lance gaining time is the time trial, and there is a mountain stage before that. If you were to back on the basis of him gaining time on the time trial I would have thought you would get better odds after tomorrow's stage. That said, this is a very hard to read tour, and if you listened to Robbie McEwen, he swears that Lance will win the whole thing. If Lance finished with Contador tomorrow, he definitely comes in. Personally I don't see it, but you never can be sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) The rest of my stage bets to go with the bet on Monfort. 2.5pts Kim Kirchen @ 9.86 Betfair Stage profile suits him very well. I don't think many sprinters will be there and I think Kirchen is a big chance. Came 4th in stage 1 last year and 2nd in stage 3. Both of those finishes were like this year (note: No Valverde or Gilbert this year). 1pt Gerald Ciolek @ 27 Betfair Along with Freire, Ciolek is the one sprinter who I think can be at the finish today. I think he has something to prove and from what I've read Milram are going to work all out for him today (most likely because there is no Cav). Came 3rd in stage 3 last year (was a similar type finish) 0.5pts David Millar @ 130 Betfair Millar is one who has the ability to stay away with a break close to the finish. He almost succeeded in a similar move in the Dauphine and is worth a sly stab. 0.5pts Sergeuy Ivanov @ 65 Betfair Ivanov has strong classics results and indeed he won one this year. Katusha are clearly looking for a stage win and using Ivanov to attack makes sense for them with Pozzato as the sprint option Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Labrador Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Can I just say how much I have enjoyed following this excellent thread, in particular the contributions from Crouchy. From what I have gleaned from you experts I'm on Tony Martin each way at 33/1 and Franco Pellizotti each way at 33/1 for King of The Mountains. I also backed Pellizotti to win a stage at 6/1 and Thor Hushovd to win a stage at evens. Looks like I may be struggling with the Hushovd bet now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Millar caught inside of 2kms. Very annoying, particularly with Kirchen and Ciolek failing in the sprint. Down to +16 for the tour now with hope that tomorrow can bring good profits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I've won the bet with Pozzato but lost the other two. Only +1,88 this stage but overall for this tour until now my profit is +31.88 which is nice Interesting race with nice finish and tommorrow i hope for an interesting stage too. Later with bets, commentary and questions for Crouchie and the other cycling fans :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Really unlucky with Millar, Crouchie. Was cheering him on for you mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Cheers Kev. Having a couple of near misses at long odds hurts, but hopefully one of them will stick soon. Will be back with tomorrow's bet in the morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Cheers Kev. Having a couple of near misses at long odds hurts' date=' but hopefully one of them will stick soon. Will be back with tomorrow's bet in the morning.[/quote'] Keep going mate, you'll hit it eventually. Given the size of the field, the fact that a couple of select named choices have been right in there says a lot. You'll get that bit of luck in the end. Steer clear of the scots though. You can't rely on them to win anything ;) :lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) tommorrow i see Contador to win and to show to armstrong who's the boss. Armstrong maybe will be there and finish in top 3 if he is in top condition with A.Schleck, Evans and Sastre. What do you think Crouchie? And tell me from where you take informations about riders pls. I'm not an expert on mountains maybe you can help me Crouchie with some advice because i want to take Contador for victory and Armstrong in top 3 both high stakes around 7-8pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) tommorrow i see Contador to win and to show to armstrong who's the boss. Armstrong maybe will be there and finish in top 3 if he is in top condition with A.Schleck, Evans and Sastre. What do you think Crouchie? And tell me from where you take informations about riders pls. I'm not an expert on mountains maybe you can help me Crouchie with some advice because i want to take Contador for victory and Armstrong in top 3 both high stakes around 7-8pts Information on riders, particularly breakaways is gained from previous tours. You can learn the kind of things they like do (Chavanel breakaways etc.). Sites like www.cyclingnews.com has good information on all races. As for Armstrong it is virtually impossible to know how he is climbing but if I am being honest he is one of the last people I would look to bet on. I am not sure how fast he is in a finish and I'm not sure he will attack to win either. My belief is that he will ultimately end up working for Contador. As for Contador, he is a deserved favourite but it is hard for me to agree on high stakes, because he is not the rider I am looking to back for this stage. The gradient in the final part of the climb is actually quite small (4.4% in last kilometre) so it's probably not the ideal place to launch a late attack. There will most likely be a breakaway that goes away at the start. If that gets caught (I hope it does) then the question is what riders do Astana chase down and which do they let go. They are a team who ride with overall GC in mind, not stage wins. Who they send to attack could also be interesting. In any event, the rider I am on is Franco Pellizotti, for at least 9pts. He is a very good climber and I think there is a good chance that he might not be a marked rider by Astana (he is not a good time trialist). Liquigas are looking for stage wins, and it's my understanding that Pellizotti will ride for those wins in the mountains while Kreuziger and Nibali ride for overall. I also believe that of the top climbers (Contador, Leipheimer, Evans, Schleck, Menchov) that Pellizotti is the best in a sprint, so even if he doesn't break away if he arrives in the last km with the lead group he is still a chance (Pellizotti came 5th in Stage 6, ahead of Schleck, Evans etc.) That said, you shouldn't let that stop you from taking Contador. There's nothing to say that I am right and he is not the favourite for nothing. With so many mountain points on offer, I get the feeling this will either be a great day or a disastrous one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) What worries me about Pelizotti/Liquidas is that there is not much depth besides the three leaders - Kreuziger, Nibali and himself. It was quite strange that Kreuziger prepared the sprint for him while the supposedly supporting members of the team were nowhere in sight - this is exactly where the weakness of the team may be. I'd rather back Kreuziger in a moutain finish and Pelizotti in a flatter finish - Kreuziger is strong in the mountains overall, including breaks, while I'm not that sure about Pelizotti. The guys' timing of the finishing spring was also rather poor today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 10, 2009 Author Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Aside from Dela Fuente, Saunier didn't have too much last year aside from Ricco, Piepoli and Cobo Acebo. It didn't really bother them, and I see very many parallels between Liquigas/SDV and Pellizotti/Ricco. Even if he didn't time his sprint yesterday, he finished ahead of all the climbers expected to feature today. Finishing behind Ciolek, Freire and Hushovd isn't something to concern me. I have liked Franco for this stage for 2 weeks before the tour start, so I'm basically sticking with this one. With KOTM my main overall bets though, I can tell that this stage is either going to be great or disastrous for me. Hopefully great :hope 9pts Franco Pellizotti @ 29 Sportingbet AU There are a few ways I believe Pellizotti can win this. He can attack solo half way up the final climb and not be chased. He can attack and be joined by a GC rider, where they can work together, with Pellizotti taking stage glory in exchange for helping a GC rider gain time (I wouldn't rule out Contador and Pellizotti riding off together). The other is if a select group arrive at the finish together. If this happens, I believe Pellizotti has a better finish than those expected be in the group. Fantastic odds for this one IMO. 2pts David Moncoutie @ 19 Luxbet** Moncoutie has said he wants to win the KOTM, and if this is true today is a stage he may very well attack on. He is far enough behind for the big teams to let him go. 40 of the 69 points on offer today are for finishing first, so to go on a break and not win wouldn't provide a great return for the Frenchman. **Note I would actually hate Moncoutie to win and would consider this a bad bad result Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 10, 2009 Author Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) 1pt David Arroyo @ 67 Sports Alive In previous tours Arroyo has been a key figure in mountain stage breakaways and if one goes away today I think there is a nice chance that he will be a part of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 10, 2009 Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) What about h2h T Martin - Cancellara with odd 1,45 on Martin ? I think could be a good bet here Crouchie Another h2h Moncoutie - Igor Anton with odd 1.55 on Mouncutie? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 10, 2009 Author Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Both Martin and Cancellara were good in Switzerland, but I don't know a great deal about his high mountain capability. Cancellara has lost some weight, so the level of his improvement is uncertain. Personally I would not consider either bet to be value. Moncoutie is an improved chance of winning, but if he doesn't win I'm not sure how much he focuses on a decent finish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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