Crouch Potato Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 I'm having trouble copying the odds into here, so I'll leave this post free for a mod to put the prices into :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted June 23, 2009 Author Share Posted June 23, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) 20pts - Oscar Pereiro Top 10 Finish @ 9 Sportingbet (Currently 6s) When I saw this price I couldn't believe it, which is why I've assigned this one 20 points! (Note: I got on this last week and the odds have moved in to 6s) With Valverde out due to the Italian suspension Pereiro will now be the GC leader or co-leader. He's a strong time trialist and very good up the mountains too. In the past 5 years he has finished in the Top 10 four times. Last year was the year he failed as he crashed out whilst in 10th overall. When you consider he has been riding for Valverde for most of those years it's a very impressive effort and so I can't see why he can't at least do the same again this tour. The only negative is that he's had that bad injury from the tour last year, but I think he's had more than enough time to recover. I think Contador + Astana, Evans, Menchov, Andy Schleck, Sastre will probably take 6 of the top 10 spots, but there's still 4 other spots which I think are very much there for the taking. I honestly make Pereiro a 50% chance of making the top 10, but even if I am overestimating that, I'd still have said he's at least a 30% chance. Given the odds this is outstanding value. 3pts E/W - King of the Mountains - Franco Pellizotti @ 41 (E/W 1/4 1-2-3) PP Having rode third in the Giro Pellizotti is going to join the team in France, where I expect Kreuziger will be the main GC rider with Nibali. I don't believe Franco is riding for the GC but for stage wins. If he goes for a win in the first mountain stage, which he may well be allowed to do if he's lost enough time in the two time trials, then he'd be first over the Hors Category finish too, which would result in 40 points. We saw last year Riccardo Ricco come to the tour, look for stage wins only, got an early mountain one and from there went for the Polka win by default. I think a very similar thing could happen to Pellizotti here at the tour and I think the odds available are very attractive. 1pt E/W - King of the Mountains - Cadel Evans @ 67 (E/W 1/4 1-2-3) PP I'll be honest here and tell you I think Cadel is a very small chance to win this market. I'm taking this basically for the E/W odds, but they are really good. Evans has shown in the Dauphine a greater willingness to attack, and given he'll need to in order to defeat Contador, I think we will see a more attacking tour from the Aussie. If this is the case he will score a fair few mountain points by default. He came 4th in 2007 in this classification and I think a top 3 is a strong possibility. 2.75pts** - Nation with Most Victories - Germany @ 41 Sportingbet Spain is a big favourite but I don't see how it's justified. Sure they have Contador, but he's going to win the tour, not a bunch of stages. Freire is their only sprinter and Sastre et al aren't definite stage winners. What I like about Germany is that they have many riders capable of winning different profile stage: Tony Martin and Burt Grabsch are an outside chance of a time trial win whilst Jens Voigt, Fabian Wegmann and Marcus Burghardt are often in breakaways. Add to this Linus Gerdemann for a possible mountain stage win and you already have a possible 2-3 stage wins. The key to this bet though is the two very fine sprinters that will be representing Germany; Heinrich Haussler and Gerald Ciolek. I'll be the first to admit this bet has no hope if Cav dominates the sprints like he probably should, but if he doesn't then these two guys are definitely in the top 5 sprinters going around right now. ** Odd Points value assigned due to being stake limited with Sportngbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted June 23, 2009 Share Posted June 23, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) These long tables never look good and well-organised when copied here so I'd leave it to everyone interested to check the odds-comp site for updated odds;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted June 24, 2009 Author Share Posted June 24, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) These long tables never look good and well-organised when copied here so I'd leave it to everyone interested to check the odds-comp site for updated odds;) No problems mate. Agreed that it looks better. Next bet is another Mountains Classification one. What I love about this market is that 90% of the peloton don't even want to win it, so it makes very open and attractive from a gambling perspective, particularly if you love speccing high value. To demonstrate it's open-ness, Moncoutie is a $3-$4 favourite for no other reason than the fact he has said he wants to win it. Anyway, the next bet is: 5pts King of the Mountains - Tony Martin @ 126 Betstar Tony Martin won the mountains classification in both Paris-Nice and the Tour de Suisse this year. There are not many mountain top finishes this year so if a rider were to consistantly be a part of breakaways on stages with 2-3 cat. 1 climbs then it would be very easy for them to claim the polka jersey, particularly if those cat 1 climbs are the last climb of the stage or if they contest the smaller climbs in other stages. Despite having some solid enough GC riders there's no big GC star in the High-Road team so I don't see why Martin couldn't chase the polka in breakaways and then pull back to support Kirchen and co. if requirred. Regardless, these odds are fantastic for a man whose clearly demonstrated an interest in winning mountains classifications Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cosmetic Bob Posted June 25, 2009 Share Posted June 25, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Ive already had small each way bet on ANDREAS KLODEN @ 150/1 with Blue Square. Ridiculous odds as hes part of the Astana Team & has twice been runner up in 04 & 06, hes also in good form as he was 5th in the Tour De Suisse last year. he'll probably lead out Contador & Armstrong in the mountains but whos to say he cant stay with them then attack himself! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted June 28, 2009 Author Share Posted June 28, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) 3pts King of the Mountains - Daniel Martin @ 51 Sportingbet Garmin's main GC rider Vandevelde is coming off a bad injury. He might be fine, in which case I expect him to do very well, but if he's not then Garmin's ambitions for the non sprint stages may well change and Martin for the Polka Dots is a very feasible option. He finished 2nd behind Valverde earlier this year in the Tour of Catalunya. Curiously, one of the Directeur Sportifs for Garmin (Matt White) tipped Martin for the Polka Jersey. Given that he also tipped Farrar for the green it could just be extreme bias, but I'd find it odd that he'd tip someone for a jersey if he wasn't going to at least possibly compete for it (which Farrar almost certainly will). Given the open-ness of the Polka market, ability + possible license/motivation to try and win it generally means big value and I'll be hoping that's the case here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 1, 2009 Author Share Posted July 1, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) A few more KOTM selections. I know I've gone for quite a few here but I am more than happy with that as I believe there's some strong odds in quite a few runners. 3pts King of the Mountains - Pierre Rolland @ 81 Sportingbet AU In the 2008 Dauphine Rolland won the Polka Jersey. In a following interview he said: "This jersey is a big symbol...I like climbing and I would like to wear the polka dot jersey at the Tour de France one day as well...I gave it all because this race was my Tour de France for the year...It's not worth going to the Tour with only the intention to finish it." This year Rolland is in the tour, riding for Boygues Telecom. Boygues don't have a GC rider and I can easily see them competing for the Polka Dot Jersey, particularly with a rider like Rolland who clearly has a respect for the Polka Jersey. 2pts King of the Mountains - Rigoberto Uran @ 101 Sportingbet UK With Valverde absent from the Caisse team it's unlikely that they will put any of their riders on the podium. As such I feel they may opt to compete for the Polka jersey and Uran is a good canditate for it. He's a capable climber but not a big threat to the others, so would likely get latitude in breakaways. 0.5pts King of the Mountains - Laurens Ten Dam @ 301 Sportingbet UK In an interview with Rabosport he mentioned how he would like to one day compete for the Polka jersey. It's probably unlikely given his role in the team this year, but the odds are long enough to give it a small back. 0.5s King of the Mountains - Jens Voigt @ 501 Sportingbet UK Just another small back mostly due to odds. The stage profiles this year are condusive to a breakaway artists being able to win the Polka jersey and Voigt is a prominent man in breaks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Good luck with your bets for the tour Crouchie :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dremeber Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) My bets for the TDF are the following Yellow: Evans -> could be a shot in the dark but had a good Dauphine and a team behind him which fully supports him. Green: Hushovd -> There is no use in betting on Cav, the odds are to low. Hushovd in always there. Almost never finishing out of the top 5 in a bunch sprint and had the experience. Freire -> Same story. The problem this year for him will be that it are all real flat sprint. Only in Barcelona he has an advantage. KOM: Moncoutie -> Obvious, I guess. T. Martin -> Really like the odds on him. Crouch couldn't explained it better. A. Schleck -> not yet good enough to win the TDF but it is sure that he can ride up a mountian. Cheers, Dremeber Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevshat Posted July 2, 2009 Share Posted July 2, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) :welcome to PL dremeber. Good luck with your bets mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 2, 2009 Author Share Posted July 2, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Good luck with your bets for the tour Crouchie :ok Cheers Kev. Cavendish absolutely crushed me last year, so hoping for a much better tour. Having trouble containing myself in the Polka market though :loon :welcome Dremeber and GL with those picks. Particularly the Tony Martin one ;) Bit of interesting news already today with Thomas Dekker removed from the lotto teams for doping. He was a very strong domestique for Rasmussen in 2007 and combined with his strong time trialling ability is surely a huge loss for Cadel. Interesting to see they brought in Wageilus too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cosmetic Bob Posted July 2, 2009 Share Posted July 2, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) dremeber, I agree with you about Schleck, why is he single figure odds I don't rate hes GC chances at all, was beaten more than 11 minutes last year, he is not good at time trials. Already on Kloden, but im also swaying towards another astana rider LEVI LEIPHEIMER @ 33/1 E/W Blue Square. 3rd two years ago beaten less than a minute, 2nd in the Vuelta last year beind Contador, I expect him to do better than in the Giro becuase imo the pressure as being the fav with Basso got to him. Tean Time Trail on tuesday, surely a big postitive for Astana boys to gain time on the other GC contenders. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 2, 2009 Author Share Posted July 2, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I've been interested in Leipheimer myself. Despite working for Alberto in 2007 he still got a podium place. He's a better time trialist than Alberto and if he had yellow going into the queen stage then it could get very interesting. On a less happy note, Daniel Martin is out of the tour, so I'm -3pts before the thing even begins. Certainly not the way I would have liked to have started. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dremeber Posted July 2, 2009 Share Posted July 2, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I've been interested in Leipheimer myself. Despite working for Alberto in 2007 he still got a podium place. He's a better time trialist than Alberto and if he had yellow going into the queen stage then it could get very interesting. On a less happy note, Daniel Martin is out of the tour, so I'm -3pts before the thing even begins. Certainly not the way I would have liked to have started. First of all, thx for the warm welcome. Will be an interesting day tomorrow. The verdict on Boonen and I did read somewhere that the UCI is planning the announce 4 to 7 names based on the blood passport. For some reason I assume, that if it is true, Moreau will be one of them. Mhh, don't believe in Leipheimer (although the odds on him are juicy (45.00). Couldn't finish it off in the Giro while the complete team was backing him. I wouldn't be surprised if rmstrong took it down again:tongue2. If I wouldn't have such a limited BR I certainly would place a bet on him. Also a little bit surprised on the odds for him. My booky is offering 5.00. Way to low to place a bet on him and don't forget he was 3 years out of competition. What do you all think about the first TT? Cancellara? I do so, but again odds of 1,55 don't make it a value bet. Time will tell I guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 2, 2009 Share Posted July 2, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Cancellara is the favourite i think but the profile of the race is a bit tricky and the odds are not very good. What do you think Crouchie? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 3, 2009 Author Share Posted July 3, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) It is a little tricky but it's only a cat 4 climb. Cancellara won the Tour de Suisse by finishing with the leaders on trickier climbs than this one so I don't think that it will affect him too much. I think team strategies may be important. Whoever wins the time trial will be in yellow and will most likely stay in yellow until stage 4. Do teams of certain favourites prefer not to be in yellow? It's quite hard to work out, particularly for a team like High Road. They'll have to do a lot of works on stages 2 and 3 so you'd think maybe it's best if they weren't, however it's likely their only chance to capture yellow and I think being the team they are they'd want to get yellow if possible. With all that said and done, I agree that Cancellara doesn't offer any value. Contador won the Paris-Nice prologue so I think he could be a chance. Given the team dynamic of Astana (namely Lance's return) I think Contador would be keen to assert himself immediately and make a statement. For the record, that Paris Nice prologue I think was 9.7km, with Wiggins, Tony Martin and LL Sanchez in the following places. I'll be back later will a couple of bets to kick off with and possibly one last polka play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 3, 2009 Share Posted July 3, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I put a bet on Cancellara and i hope to win if you say that this 4 cat climb doesn't affect him too much. Is not a very high odd but is good if you put some money on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveO Posted July 3, 2009 Share Posted July 3, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I love watching Thr tour de France. I'd say it's the greatest test of endurance Sportiing Event in the World. As for betting on it I wouldn't have a clue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cosmetic Bob Posted July 3, 2009 Share Posted July 3, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Guys ant idea why Kloden is strill available at around triple figure odds? Stan James did cut him to 20/1 but now hes 80/1 with them IMO he is a GC contender, even the Astana Team Director has said that! PELLIZOTTI @ 300/1 BET365 E/W Are BET365 joking with these odds haha he was third in the Giro showing brilliant form in the mountain stages only getting beat just under 2 mins at the end, he thrashed Leipheimer, Sastre & Armstrong in the overall GC & they are by far must stronger price in this race Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 4, 2009 Author Share Posted July 4, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Pellizotti is definitely crazy odds. I'm actually being greedy on this one though - I'm waiting for the two time trials to be run in the hope he'll have lost some time so I can hopefully snare some bigger odds. Could backfire though...In any event, GL for Le Tour Bob. Stage 1 - Alberto Contador @ 11 Sportingbet AU With the team dynamic of Astana in question due to Lance's return Alberto will be keen to assert his leadership over the team by putting himself in yellow in a discipline that Lance was best at. Contador's time trialling has improved markedly - he is now the Spanish TT champion and won the opening time trial in Paris Nice this year. Whilst I don't think the profile of the stage will hurt Cancellara, I do feel it's much better for Contador than a purely flat stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tadley Posted July 4, 2009 Share Posted July 4, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Dont get greedy with pellizotti: I took 125/1 and thoght that was a good price. 300/1 is crazy considering thje same firm only offer 3/1 for a top 10 finish.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 4, 2009 Author Share Posted July 4, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Final one for Stage 1, a real speccie but that's very much the nature of most cycling bets. 1.5pts Top 3 Finish - Luis Leon Sanchez @ 27 Betfair 0.5pts Stage Win - Luis Leon Sanchez @ 120 Betfair A decent part of this stage is downhill and there is no better descender in the peloton than LL Sanchez. Though it's not a great descent in a time trial every second is critical and I believe that the small gains Sanchez is capable of making on the descents could prove decisive. I think Paolo Salvodelli once won a prologue of the Giro thanks largely to his descending abilities and hopefully that can again prove a factor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe mavis Posted July 4, 2009 Share Posted July 4, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Well I have had a small wager on Sastre on Betfair at 22/1 with a view to lay further down the line can not give too much more detail except my brother in law is a very keen Tour fan and informs me this is good value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 4, 2009 Author Share Posted July 4, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Cancellara was too powerful in that final part of the time trial. A bit disappointing from my perspective but well done to those who were on him. Combined with Daniel Martin's absence I'm -8pts for the tour so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 4, 2009 Share Posted July 4, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I'm pleased that my bet on Cancellara was succesfull today. Alberto, Wiggins and Kloden were good too today. Tomorrow? I think Cavendish is big favourite because first is very good on sprint, second today he didn't make an effort and third Boonen is not in very good form until now. What do you think guys? Other favourites? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted July 4, 2009 Author Share Posted July 4, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Frankly, I'm not too concerned outside of Cavendish. Tomorrow I think I will try and get ahead in the tour by taking Cavendish big. Aside from Tony Martin, you will notice that none of their riders used much energy today. They want to win these flat stages. Hopefully we'll be able to get a nice price on the Manx Missile (I'd consider 3.00 to be brilliant) but I expect 2.2-2.4? Might be worth looking towards Ciolek for a top 3 spot. Probably too flat for Freire. As for CTT, who leads out who? Haussler for Hushovd or Hushovd for Haussler. That one will be interesting, Haussler is a danger, almost beat Cav in Milan-San Remo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 4, 2009 Share Posted July 4, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Now odds are 2.25 on Cav for tommorrow. I think 8/10 is good on Cav. Is the big favourite even if Haussler beat him in Milan-San Remo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue_lion121 Posted July 4, 2009 Share Posted July 4, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Cavendish should win and odds around 2.25 are pretty acceptable 5/10 stakes and confidance. But SportingBet offers 8.00 for Haussler to finish in top3 which is awsome. I think he should be considered a serios contender The finish is flat but we have 4 climbs (one of the 3rd category the rest 4th.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magic_Boy Posted July 4, 2009 Share Posted July 4, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) I will put 8/10 on Cav with 2.25 for victory, 1/10 with 26.00 odd on Haussler and 1/10 on Ciolek with 17.00 odd all at Bwin. What do you think guys? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dremeber Posted July 4, 2009 Share Posted July 4, 2009 Re: Cycling: Tour de France (July 4-26) Do not about tomorrow. There are 4 climbs in the course. All 4 of 4th category. If they will start like crazy, which I expect due to the fact that everybody wants that Polka dot Jersey, I do expect that Cav will loose some of his power. He is the lesser climber of all sprinters. Still he is the favorite but I'm not going to place a bet on him. Also do not forget the steep climb at 10 kilometer from the finish. It is an excellent break away opportunity. From there on it is downhill to the finish! GL to all, Dremeber Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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