Fintron's Flat Thread 2009 - Final Profit +478.17 pts

[Kithanga]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

4.55 Doncaster Dangerous Midge is open to further improvement and could be generously priced at 16/1. Brian Meehan's colt is unexposed after just the three starts and was an encouraging third on his handicap debut last time out at Bath. The winner, Point of Light from the Mark Prescott yard, has been prolific since, so that form has been boosted. Dangerous Midge won well on his second start in a Sandown maiden and may have more to offer today. The drop back in trip will suit Alcade and he is another I want onside. Running over one and a half miles he was headed in the last few strides at Newmarket recently and 1m 6f stretched his stamina at York when last seen. Providing he doesn't become embroiled in a battle for the lead I can see him going well here. Dangerous Midge 16/1 SJ, 5 pts EW Alcade 20/1 SJ, 2.5 pts EW

Nice one Fin - keep pasting them bookies!

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread thanks guys, I'll do my best!! 1.55 Doncaster Rio Vitesse is trained by Rod Millman and although his operation is clearly not on the same scale as Godolphin or Ballydoyle, who send out four of the seven runners here, his colt deserves his place in the line up off the back of a decent second to John Ryan's Silver Grecian in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at Newmarket in July. Silver Grecian is 5/1 for this and despite the fact only a length seperated Rio Vitesse back in the second that day, the Millman runner is as big as 40/1 for this. He probably needs a pace to chase to be effective, but with O'Brien saddling up three, there is a chance he may get just that. 40/1 Stan James, 2.5 pt EW (2 places, 1/4 odds). 2.25 Doncaster - Portland H'Cap I posted my picks for this on Thursday.... Quote:

Twenty four runners line up for this handicap and my reading of the race is that it will pay to be drawn low. In such a big field I have decided on four main picks at combined odds of approximately 10/3 for the quartet, with two saver selections to try recover my stake if the main bets flop. Group Therapy is second highest rated for this race, rated 103, and is 5 lbs higher than when winning at Ascot during the Shergar Cup. He disappointed at Beverley last time out but is open to more improvement with Neil Callan a strong booking. Ishetoo will benefit from Frederik Tylicki's 3 lb claim and is only 1 lb higher than when winning a decent sprint at York earlier in the season. He wasn't disgraced behind the favourite here, Markab, in a recent race at Ripon. Cheveton is hit and miss but won at Haydock last time out and even off this revised mark is only 1 lb lower than when successful at Southwell in March. Sea of Leaves is a former John Gosden runner now with Jim Goldie. A return to more patient tactics could see him improve here, and he is only 4 lb higher than when beaten by a neck by Bounty Box at Newmarket recently. Johannes keeps on pulling wins out of the bag and was typically eighth, sandwiched inbetween three wins, the one time I backed him. However, I want him on my side today as a saver, and the same with Pavershooz, another who the handicapper may be starting to get a handle on but is in good form and ran on well when winning at Ayr last time out. Cheveton - 14/1 Bet 365, 0.88 pt win Sea of Leaves - 25/1 Bet 365, 0.5 pt win Ishetoo - 25/1 bet 365, 0.5 pt win Group Therapy - 28/1 Bet 365, 0.45 pt win Johannes (saver) - 10/1 Bet 365, 0.3 pt win Pavershooz (saver) - 8/1 Bet 365, 0.38 pts win

Two of my main picks are non-runners which is a bummer. Not sure if the bets were struck on NRNB terms but I doubt it. 3.00 Doncaster Father Time - write up posted previously. 10 pts EW at 12/1 already Adv ante-post 4.05 Doncaster Manassas won over course and distance in the pretigious Spring Mile at the start of the season and although has failed to follow up since, has often been dealt unfavourable draws in large fields. The return to a smaller field here will help the Cape Cross gelding who is only 4 lbs higher than his last win. 12/1 SJ, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 5.15 Doncaster Precision Break was raced prominently in the Ebor but after losing his place 8f out, struggled inside the final half mile. However, he drops back into a smaller field, and his tactical versatility, together with the fact Kieren Fallon is booked, can ensure Paul Cole's colt gains compensation today. He ran a cracker at Goodwood when second to Manyriverstocross in July and although 3 lbs higher he hasn't had much racing this term and is capable of landing this. 3/1 Bet 365, 10 pt win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 4.20 Goodwood Rowe Park has been a magnificent servant to connections and continues to hold his form well. After winning a Newbury Group 3 in 2007 he ended 2008 without a win to his name, but this year he has scooped a listed prize at his favourite track, Lingfield, and ran several eyecatching races under unfavourable conditions of late. He looks overpriced at 16/1 here and should get the race set up nicely for him. 16/1 SJ, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 7.20 Wolverhampton Miss Minnies may be worth chancing to follow up after a comfortable win at Kempton last week. She is open to further improvement and has shown a tendency for artificial surfaces, as well as this trip, more than once. Mark of Meydan shaped encouragingly on his polytrack debut here in August and is another that has more to offer. Thus, he is my saver. Miss Minnies 3/1 Bet 365, 10 pt Mark of Meydan 12/1 SJ, 2.5 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 3.35 Doncaster A weak race for the grade and Stimulation looks chanceable, despite the fact he returns from a 329 day layoff. Hughie Morrison has got him ready after long absenses before and having finished second to the useful Paco Boy at Goodwood last season and having beaten Cat Junior in this grade at Newmarket when last seen, he is my pick. 11/4 Boyle, 10 pt.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread A pleasing day in the end yesterday. Stakes were returned on the non-runners in the Portland, Manassas won at 12/1, as did Precision Break at 4/1, both at Doncaster. 14/1 saver Mark of Meydan was btn by a neck at Wolverhampton but it was a profitable day. 2.25 Bath When I went to Doncaster earlier in the season with Mowgli I was on My Mandy after a fair fourth on her debut. Despite playing up in the preliminaries she ran a cracker to take third, and she ran even better when raced alone on the far rail at Haydock next time out, when finishing a length behind subsequent nursery winner Eternal Instinct. I have waited patiently all season for her to make her handicap debut (she has only raced in maidens and novices races since) and in my opinion she is capable of finding races off 67. Paul Hanagan is booked, and at the prices I think she is worth a punt 33/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds). 3.35 Bath There has to be serious questions about where the pace is going to come from here as Artistic License, Bobby Soxer and The Tatling are all best produced off a fast pace. Filligree takes a noticeable drop in grade and is likely to be up there, but at the prices I feel Doc Jones is the bet. The gelding was fifth over course and distance in a big field last time out, which was a solid enough run, and his past runs suggest he could set the tempo today. He is yet to win outside of maiden company but based upon his third to the progressive Regeneration at Wolverhampton in September, I give him a chance off this mark here. 20/1 Bet 365, 5 pt EW (2 places, 1/4 odds). 5.50 Bath Feasible has looked a winner in waiting and was desperately unlucky not to break his maiden when mugged on the line by Hits Only Cash at Kempton in August. After 21 starts, he remains winless, but he drops back down to the basement grade and if he is ever going to win a race, it would be at this level. Cut 2 lbs in the weights, he has a chance. 10/1 SJ, 2.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 2.35 Goodwood Jesse James is interesting after a nice win at Windsor last time out making all but I expect he will have to hand over the lead to Kaolak here. John Ryan's charge has been in breathtaking form of late and even after an 11 lb rise, is improving so sharply when allowed to dominate that further improvement cannot be ruled out. 13/2 SJ, 2.5 pt win. 3.10 Goodwood Colagnik showed promise in all-weather maidens last season, chasing home Greenisland, Clerk's Choice and The Thin Red line in maidens, and often hinting she wanted further than a mile. She tackled 1m 2f for the first time last time out and made no impression but she was entitled to need the run and improvement may be forthcoming now in handicaps, in handling turf as well as the all-weather. 33/1 SJ, 2.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 4.20 Goodwood Alnwick reluctantly took up the running at Warwick, latest, with a lack of pace in the field, and look to have every chance inside the last couple of furlongs before being headed by Baddam and the winner, Just Lille, who looked the pacemaker on paper but who was raced with more restraint markedly upped in trip. By backing him here I am hoping that the Kevin Ryan runner Wicked Daze may take up the running, and allow Alnwick to sit just off the leader. That is not guaranteed, hence the modest stake, but Alnwick seems an honest enough type and the price seems big. 10/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pts EW (2 places, 1/4 odds). 3.55 Ffos Las The Irish have plundered many prizes from these shores in the last few days, including in the Portland yesterday, and South Wing, sent over by Eoin Griffin, looks very interesting today. He was second to Eagle's Pass at Leopardstown in May, with Arc Bleu and the unexposed Speed Ticket (in turn, a head second to Sesenta nto) behind. That stacks up as good form and he races off 82 today. Fallon is booked, and it probably points to a big run. 5/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds). 4.30 Ffos Las Paisley is understandably all the rage but his dominance in the market opens this up for an each-way steal in the hope of an upset. Some Sunny Day has benefitted from the step up in trip and Hughie Morrison's filly is open to further improvement after just a 3 lb rise from her win at Lingfield last time out. She showed she acts on turf too with a decent second at Salisbury previously. 7/1 Bet 365, 7.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2.15 Curragh Bit of a minefield is this - a 22-runner nursery, but Diva Dolce is drawn low if it pays to be drawn on either rail, and looks as if she will benefit from this immediate drop back in trip, despite what her pedigree may suggest. Kevin Prendergast's filly has shown promise in maidens, chasing home Lilly Langtry on her Naas debut and she may have a squeak off 72, with the jockey claiming 10 lbs. She didn't see out 7f at Dundalk, latest, so the return to 6f may suit. 16/1 SJ, 5 pts EW (4 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread I'm really pleased with how things have gone this weekend with today especially proving profitable with a 930/1 treble landed from Diva Dolce (16/1), Kaolak (13/2 - 10p R4) and Some Sunny Day (7/1) all winning. I didn't back the selections in a treble but am happy to pick up all the singles nonetheless. Yesterday was annoying with Father Time, backed at 12/1 in here ante-post, given a poor ride from Jamie Spencer. He wasn't booked to ride when the bet was placed, and I will be in no rush to back anything ridden by him in the immediate future. Two of my picks in the Portland were non-runners, but Bet 365 returned the stakes even though the bet was struck on Thursday. Friday's bets were disappointing, except for Dangerous Midge who stayed on well to win at Doncaster. He is one that takes a bit of winding up so a step up in trip would suit, although the possibility of a strongly run 1m 2f would also tempt me in to follow again. Opening balance: +639.65 Friday Spanish Bounty -15 Dangerous Midge +96 (WON 16/1 EW Adv) Alcade -5 Directorship -10 Maslak -5 Kochanski -10 Electric City -5 Pts staked: 60 P/L: +46 Saturday Rio Vitesse -5 Ishetoo/Group Therapy/Pavershooz -16.25 Sea of Leaves/Cheveton NR's Father Time -20 Manassas +75 (WON 12/1 EW adv) Precision Break +40 (WON 4/1) Rowe Park -5 Miss Minnies/Mark of Meydan -12.5 Stimulation -10 Pts staked: 93.75 P/L: +46.25 Sunday My Mandy NR Doc Jones -10 Feasible -5 Kaolak +14.63 (WON 13/2 -10p R4) Colagnik -5 Alnwick -5 South Wing -5 Some Sunny Day +63 (WON 7/1 EW Adv) Diva Dolce +100 (WON 16/1 EW Adv) Pts staked: 57.5 P/L: +147.63 Overall figures Pts staked: 4136 + 211.25 = +4347.25 Profit/loss: +639.65 + 239.88 = +879.53 ROI: +20 %

[Spooner]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Great stuff Fin, did you have the treble?

[Stevet1859]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread :clap :clap great results and fantastic figures over a sustained period Fin.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread You continue to shine with your results fintron, what a great weekend you have had, 6 winners at great great prices, especially the two 16/1 winners, fantastic always! :nana:nana

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Thanks lads, appreciate the comments. Spooner, no I didn't have the treble unfortunately, but was happy just to collect on the singles! 3.00 Leicester I think Mighty Clarets and Foletta are both sure to run well here with the former inparticularly so now stepped up in trip. However, Storm Hawk is another than will appreciate 7f here and has done enough in the past to suggest he could find a nursery off 70 for Pat Eddery. He was a fair third at this course over shorter when behind Jairzinho in a maiden in June. When stepped up in trip thereafter he was beaten by just a short head by Jehu off 66 on his handicap debut at Catterick. Although put up 4 lbs for that effort when last seen when flopping at Beverley, he could never get into the race and with Andrea Atzeni claiming 3 lbs he gets my money today. 10/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 4.00 Leicester Nightime Heroine should go well here providing the jockey doesn't try and be cocky, and it looks a really interesting race with Hand Painted only put up a few pounds from his last win and Jorduara running really well on the all-weather the other night. However, I like Golden Rosie at a price. Barry Hills' Exceed And Excel filly is plummetting down the handicap and is now a stone lower than when making her handicap debut at this track last July. She has hinted at a revival in her last two starts and this step back in trip could prompt immediate improvement. 14/1 Paddypower, 2.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds). 4.30 Leicester This is the second division of the nursery handicap and I'm wanting to take on the Mick Channon-trained favourite, White Dart, with Nina Rose. Clive Cox's filly has shown plenty of promise in maidens, registering a third behind Dick Turpin at Windsor in June and was hampered when tackling this trip for the first time at Salisbury, latest. She looks on a winnable mark and from a good draw, could go well. 6/1 Bet 365, 7.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 5.30 Leicester This race presents a real problem for me. I am not a Jamie Spencer fan at all but he is sat on what I feel is the best handicapped horse in the race - Silent Oasis. Brian Meehan's filly flopped on her handicap debut at Haydock in July, but I am tempted to cross a line through that form given only four runners went to post and freak results often occur in small fields. Given her fourth to the useful Strawberrydaiquiri in a Windsor maiden on her debut, I think she has a real chance off 74 today, especially considering her good draw. I would like to have a bit more on this today but hold reservations because of the jockey so 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). Redcar 5.10 John Keats has held his form well this season without winning and dropped in grade is likely to be involved, along with Who's Shirl, who hacked up at Newcastle last time out and may have more to offer, despite a 10 lb hike in the weights. It is Darcy's Pride that interests me though. The mare is probably more effective over 5f than 6f, but has benefitted from the application of a tongue tie in recent months and is only 3 lbs higher than when winning at Newcastle last time out. She has course and distance form having won here in April so, the trip apart, ticks most boxes. I still think she is worth chancing at the price though, and will have John Keats and Who's Shirl onside as savers. Darcy's Pride 16/1 Hills, 7.5 pts EW (1/4 odds, 4 places) John Keats 9/2 Bet 365, 5 pts win Who's Shirl 7/1 Bet 365, 3.75 pts win 3.20 Musselburgh This doesn't look a fantastic race and Terminate may be capable of landing his first race for Alan Berry. he races off a winning mark and is 4 lbs higher than when winning at Bath in May. He has not had many tries at this trip and previous efforts offer hope for his chances today. 10/1 Skybet, 5 pts EW (1/4 odds, 2 places).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

5.30 Leicester This race presents a real problem for me. I am not a Jamie Spencer fan at all but he is sat on what I feel is the best handicapped horse in the race - Silent Oasis. Brian Meehan's filly flopped on her handicap debut at Haydock in July, but I am tempted to cross a line through that form given only four runners went to post and freak results often occur in small fields. Given her fourth to the useful Strawberrydaiquiri in a Windsor maiden on her debut, I think she has a real chance off 74 today, especially considering her good draw. I would like to have a bit more on this today but hold reservations because of the jockey so 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

forgot to mention the price....8/1 Boyle.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread A losing day today which was disappointing. One of my main fancies of the day, Silent Oasis, was a non-runner at Leicester whilst John Keats (saver) was beaten in a photo finish at Redcar - that was the closest to a return today. Opening bank: +879.53 Storm Hawk -5 Golden Rosie -5 Nina Rose -15 Silent Oasis NR Darcy's Pride/John Keats/Who's Shril -23.75 Terminate -10 Pts staked: 58.75 P/L: -58.75 Overall stats Pts staked: +4347.25 + 58.75 = 4406 Profit/loss: +879.53 - 58.75 = +820.78 ROI: +19 %

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread One early one for tomorrow... 4.40 Yarmouth Whiskey Junction is only three pounds higher than when winning at Bath in July and was unfortunate to bump into the progressive Tagula Night when beaten at Lingfield last time out. He sees out six furlongs well, acts on good/firm ground and has gone well for Seb Sanders previously. Up against fellow exposed types here, he could bounce back. 7/1 Bet 365, 10 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[bowles10]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread impressive form mate, well done :ok

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

impressive form mate' date=' well done :ok[/quote'] Cheers Rob. I am doubtful whether a ROI of 19 % can be maintained until the end of the season but would be happy with 10 %+ as I will have struck well over 500 bets by then. 3.30 Haydock Dark Mischief is potentially listed class or maybe even better, and although for the best part of the season he failed to build upon a promising reappearance win at Newmarket off 86, he shaped as if coming back to hand last time out at Lingfield on what was his first run since being gelded. Jaconet crossed over from a wide draw and had the run of the race but the Candy charge finished best of the rest, taking third in eyecatching fashion. Silaah is the favourite here on his second start for Dandy Nicholls. He was narrowly touched off at Newmarket last time out and may be better over further. 7/2 Skybet, 30 pts win. 4.00 Haydock Cape Vale is starting to make up for lost time and his recent win at Ffos Las, sandwiched between two seconds at Catterick and Thirsk, signals a return to form for a four year old that started his career so brightly at two and is related to Moss Vale, himself a smart sprinter for the yard. He runs off a mark of 85 today, the same as last time out, and hopefully has got himself back on track. There is every chance he could dominate these and although I am relucatant to read too much into the jockey bookings, with Adrian Nicholls replacing a claimer, I think he is handicapped to win off 85 outright if putting his best foot forward. 5/2 Bet 365, 10 pt win. 4.10 Yarmouth Angus Newz has a bit to find on official figures but the possibility of an easy lead means she cannot be undestimated here. Beaten by Dandy Man in a three runner affair when last seen, she is up against weaker opposition here. Awinnersgame and Five Star Junior are unlikely to get a pace to chase and although Global City is a big danger, he arrives out of form so I'm taking on. 11/2 Paddypower, 5 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 4.30 Haydock Things have often conspired against Hada Men but he looks to have favourable conditions today and could bounce back for Luca Cumani with Keiren Fallon riding really well for the yard since his comeback. The Dynaformer gelding is only 5 lbs higher than when winning at Folkestone earlier in the season and is open to further improvement over this trip. Second over this distance at Nottingham to Rotative, Walter Swinburn's runner has franked the form since, and overall I think Hada Men is the call here, although I only reluctantly pass over Scarab, who has now left Mark Johnson, because of fitness concerns. 6/1 Bet 365, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2.50 Lingfield Love In The Park is worth a crack at this trip and is only 3 lb higher than when winning here in August. The daughter of Pivotal wasn't disgraced last time out and could capitalise if the odds on Tregoning-trained favourite, Quelaan, flops. 11/2 VC Bet, 10 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread A pleasing day today and although two of the picks won, this time I did have a treble on Dark Mischief, Cape Vale and Whiskey Junction, so was gutted that the latter was sandwiched between Total Impact and Colorus inside the final stages of the races and was touched off, preventing a big treble being landed! Thinking back, I should have laid Whiskey Junction after the first two had gone in but didn't think of that at the time. Love in the Park travelled poorly and the field gifted the winner the race by letting him make all. Anguz Newz was outclassed, whilst Hada Men also never travelled well enough to win and Fallon took him on the inside, where he got no run. Whiskey Junction ran a cracker and didn't get the soft lead as hoped, but Cape Vale did and made it pay with a decent win from Novellen Lad. Dark Mischief showed a turn of foot to see of Silaah who, as expected, shaped as if wanting 7f. Opening bank: +820.78 Whiskey Junction +4 (Placed 7/1 EW Adv) Dark Mischief +94.5 (WON 7/2 Adv - 10p R4) Cape Vale +25 (WON 5/2) Angus Newz -5 Hada Men -10 Love In The Park -20 Pts staked: 95 P/L on day: +88.5 Overall Stats Pts staked: 4406 + 95 = 4501 Profit/loss: +820.78 + 88.5 = +909.28 ROI: +20 %

[markmywords]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Another cracking day mate. Superb:notworthy

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

Another cracking day mate. Superb:notworthy

Cheers Mark. One early one for tomorrow 4.30 Yarmouth Michael Jarvis has an excellent record at this track and his Hidden Brief could potentially be better than listed class. I think Nashmiah sets the standard but has less scope for progression, and Jarvis' daughter of Barathea was impressive when landing a Newbury maiden last time out. The second has won her next two to boost that form and although she could only manage fourth in the Cheshire Oaks in May, the winner did get the run of the race. Her second to Star Ruby at Sandown reads well as that rival had the beating of Enticement (who opposes here) in the Musidora. 8/1 Paddypower, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[Kithanga]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

Cheers Rob. I am doubtful whether a ROI of 19 % can be maintained until the end of the season but would be happy with 10 %+ as I will have struck well over 500 bets by then.

I don't see any reason why you can't maintain the roi of 20% mate. Just keep up the hard work, it's clearly paying off for you. I seem to remember reading somewhere that Pricewise in the Racing Post used to have years where the profit was over 50% roi so plenty of room for improvement eh!:lol Good luck & keep them winners flowing! K

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

I don't see any reason why you can't maintain the roi of 20% mate. Just keep up the hard work, it's clearly paying off for you. I seem to remember reading somewhere that Pricewise in the Racing Post used to have years where the profit was over 50% roi so plenty of room for improvement eh!:lol Good luck & keep them winners flowing! K

Cheers K, just gonna keep things as i have done in the past few months and see what happens come November, before making a decision on whether to up stakes for next season. two for today 3.55 Yarmouth Red Jade is well handicapped and may have more to offer for his new yard but may also prefer slower ground, so Fastnet Storm is my pick here. Tom Tate's gelding is 3 lbs higher than when winning at Pontefract in June and ran well off 1 lb lower at Chester, latest. He won't mind good/firm ground one bet and thus may have more to offer. 5/1 Stan James, 5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds). 5.10 Sandown Absinthe left a nasty taste in the mouth after an agonisingly short defeat on his handicap debut last time out. Walter Swinburn's colt had showed some useful maiden form over shorter though when behind Emirates Roadshow, and now stepped up in trip, could find race off this mark of 76 and gain compensation. 7/2 Paddypower, 10 pt win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2.10 Yarmouth Roar of Applause drops into claiming grade for the first time, despite holding his own in handicap company. Sixth in a valuable handicap at Ascot in July he followed that up with a decent second to the progressive Musleh at Kempton. That run suggests he can run to his official mark of 79 and I fancy him over the likes of Cruikadyke and Darcey who are regulars at plating level and don't look open to the same level of improvement. 9/4 VC Bet, 10 pts win. 4.30 Yarmouth Hidden Brief and Enticement looked really interesting in this but both have been withdrawn. Nashmiah sets the standard here in my opinion and Splashdown has more to offer, but Crimson Ribbon could be the call at the price. John Gosden's filly is lightly raced after just two starts and is nicely bred as a half-sister to Bronze Cannon, sired by Lemon Drop Kid, both of whom have/had form around this trip. She started slowly on her debut in a Wolverhampton maiden but stayed on well when the penny dropped and picked up a Newmarket maiden when last seen. She tackles this trip for the first time and could be worth a punt. 20/1 SJ, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 6.20 Kempton Mary Celest was niggled along in the early stages of her maiden race at Beverley last time and although clearly no match for the smart winner, did finish her race better than she started it. She has now qualified for a mark and makes her handicap debut here and stepping up in trip is of interest. Her ability to handle the surface has to be taken on trust but not many Kevin Ryan horses are rated as low as 60 and it will be interesting to see how she gets on from a good draw. 16/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 6.50 Kempton Sunshine Always hacked up in a course claimer last time out and it is no surprise to see he was claimed afterwards. His mark is up 1 lb on his return to handicaps but judging by his form at Newmarket earlier in the season that may still give him a chance here and from a good draw he could go well. 8/1 Bet 365, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 9.20 Kempton Milne Bay may need this run as he returns from a 123-day break but I like trainer David Simcock and I like this horse, who became a bit of a favourite over the winter, and I cannot allow him to go off unbacked at 9/1. He won over this trip at Wolverhampton and although rated 71 now, was placed off this mark when last seen. I've never heard of the jockey but saw he rode a winner yesterday, and am taking a chance. 9/1 SJ, 2.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 8.50 Kempton Regal Blush is well worth a try at this trip judging by her latest run at Bath when she stayed on over shorter. She remains a maiden after six starts but showed enough on her handicap debut when second to It's Dubai Dolly to suggest she could find a race of this sort of mark. 14/1 Bet 365, 5 pts EW (1/4 odds, 3 places).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Poor day yesterday. Absinthe looked all over the winner in the 5.10 at Sandown before wandering close home and losing the race. Sunshine Always wasn't given a hard time from Kirsty and placed on the all-weather, as did Milne Bay, but the rest were losers. Opening bank: + 909.28 Hidden Brief NR Fastnet Storm -10 Anbsinthe -10 Roar of Applause -10 Crimson Ribbon -10 Mary Celest -5 Sunshine Always +3 (Placed 8/1 EW) Milne Bay +2 (Placed 9/1 EW) Regal Blush -10 Pts Staked: 70 P/L: -50 Overall Stats Pts staked: 4501 + 70 = 4571 Profit/loss: +909.28 - 50 = +859.28 ROI: +19 %

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2.50 Ayr Twenty four runners contest the £5k prize here and despite the low standard (0-70) it promises to be an interesting race come the off. The Bear comes into the race in fine form for Amanda Perratt but may not get an easy lead upfront here with several other front runners in opposition. Sunley Sovereign is closely matched with that rival based on a piece of Hamilton form from August, but he too has risen in the weights and enlists the help of a claiming jockey to ease the weight burden. Medici Time and Imprimis Tagula are capable of landing a race in this grade but may be happier over further and Divine Spirit is another that could land this if on song, but recent efforts temper enthusiasm. With that in mind, my main selection is Sweet Applause from the Alan Jarvis yard. Jarvis has had a busy time of late having taken on runners from the suspended Karl Burke, but this one is a long standing maiden of his that he has trained throughout her career. The Acclamation filly faced some difficult tasks as a juvenile and having finished only a modest fifth in a Sandown maiden on her second start she was thrown into a fillies Group 2 at Ascot, when put in her place. She contested another Group 3 before the season was out and although a rank outsider on both occasions and well beaten, her participation at that level served to earn her an over inflated handicap mark of 81. She struggled off that sort of mark last year and perhaps her best bit of form was her second to Wolverhampton in a nursery off 73 in October. This season she has still needed her mark to come down further, and has ran in a pair of claimers at Yarmouth and Bath in the meantime to do just that, but the form of that last race isn't working out too badly at all. The winner, Mythical Blue, has won twice since, including in handicap company, as has the third, and Sweet Applause can consider herself an unfortunate second that day (btn hd) as she was denied a clear run. She is one of only three three-year olds in this race, so it is quite within the realms of possibility that she could improve now down to a realistic mark, and at the price, she is my pick. I think Grudge could run a race for Ollie Pears but is priced up just about right, but just incase a high bias emerges I want Andrasta onside too at the available price. The daughter of Bertolini carries the same colours as my main pick here, and although racing from out of the handicap, jockey Heslop takes off several pounds to ensure she races from within the handicap proper. She hasn't done a great deal wrong this season to be fair, has won twice at this track, including with some cut in the ground, and ran well enough on her debut for this yard at Ffos Las. She could potentially be outclassed here but I am taking a chance and if she places then its profit from the race regardless of the outcome of Sweet Applause. Sweet Applause 28/1 Stan James, 5 pt EW (4 places, 1/4 odds) Andrasta 33/1 Stan James, 2.5 pt EW (4 places, 1/4 odds) 4.00 Pontefract Artistic License wasn't beaten far off this mark at Bath on Sunday and today's conditions seem more favourable with the prospect of a decent pace to chase. She was only narrowly beaten over this course and distance in June, so is worth another go, with good/firm ground posing no problems. 3/1 Bet 365, 10 pts win. 4.20 Ayr Ella - enjoyed a decent season last season, building upon a promising third in a Leicester maiden against useful types to pick up handicaps at Pontefract and York before the season was out. Interestingly, she has only had two starts this season, and being trained by a shrewd handler like Alan Swinbank I suspect they have had the Kilkerran Cup at the back of their minds all along. She may have needed the run when well beaten on her reappearance at Southwell and there was a surprise change of tactics at Ripon, latest, when she was held up, although to be fair she was drawn wide. She is open to more improvement over this trip and if handling the ground, which is quicker than she is used to, then she could go well. 11/1 Coral (bog) 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).