Fintron's Flat Thread 2009 - Final Profit +478.17 pts

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Time to bring things up to date for the last week. Overall, results remain poor and the difficult run continues, although after some terrible selections between Friday and Saturday things picked up today with Elna Bright who was a bit better than a saver, winning at 16/1 at Ascot and a couple running big races in massive fields at the Curragh. The Irish Cambridgeshire result was particularly pleasing even if Silverhand came second because I got a straight forecast up. I can't include it in the figures here but had my dearest besides me in the bookies, the fav who goes by the same name was smashed into 13/2 from 20/1 this morning so I rammed it in with Silverhand for name/market support reasons for a nice payout! I've managed to pick big forecasts a couple of times this season without backing them so was delighted to actually have money on one today and maybe a corner was turned this afternoon in Coral!! Wednesday We Have A Dream +50 (WON 10/3 Adv) Cool Hand Jake -5 Just The Tonic -5 Under Review -5 Agony and Ecstasy -5 Cheap Thrills -5 Pts staked: 40 P/L on day: +25 Thursday Commander Wish -5 Perfect Act +3.13 (Placed 9/1 EW) Ragsta -5 Musleh -5 Pts staked: 20 P/L on day: -11.87 Friday Jabal Tariq -5 Macdillon -15 One Cool Poppy -5 Patch Patch NR Pacquerettza -10 Sirenuse/Feelin Foxy -25 Dunn'o -10 Pts staked: 70 P/L on day: -70 Saturday Everymanforhimself -20 Oldjoesaid -20 Kaolak -20 Redford -20 Rasaman +25 Doubnov -5 Diamond Laura -15 Pts staked: 110 P/L on day: -75 Sunday Art Connoisseur -10 Sioduil +3.13 (Placed, 9/1 EW) Silverhand +4.38 (Placed, 11/1 EW) Chiberta King/Unleashed -16 Elna Bright/Espiritu/Tartan Gunna/Fanunalter +20 (Elna Bright WON 16/1) Red Rocks -2.5 Pts staked: 61 P/L: -0.99 Overall figures Pts staked: 4938.5 + 301 = 5239.5 Profit/loss: +638.28 - 132.86 = +505.42 ROI: +9.6 %

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 3.45 Roscommon Silver Shoon showed some very good form as a juvenile when placed behing Cuis Ghaire and Maoineach but Dermot Weld's daughter of Fasliyev has lost her way a little since. She has spent all of this season racing in maidens but finally discovered how to win at Listowel, latest, when stepped up to this trip for the first time. Off a mark of 75 she could go well for Pat Smullen on her handicap debut. 7/1 Bet 365, 20 pt win, 10 pt place (3 places, 1/4 odds)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2.10 Bath I'm on a bit of a recovery mission with Rakaan after he was well beaten at Doncaster last time out but he was killed by Fallon's over enthusiastic tactics as he tried to stretch the field by setting his mount off as fast as his legs would carry him, before he faded inside the final furlong. He has the strongest bits of form on offer here though, twice finding Canford Cliffs too strong, including when third in the Group 2 Coventry, and if at his best it will take a good horse to beat him today. Roger Charlton sends out debutant Memorandum and Walter Swinburn's Desert Poppy is entitled to come on for her run at Kempton last time out, but I think if either was a genunine 80-90 horse, which they will have to be to beat Rakaan here, then they would probably not be racing at Bath. 4/5 Stan James, 10 pts.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 4.00 Wolverhampton Suba didn't get the run of the race at Goodwood last time out and was badly hampered when carried left over two furlongs out. This former Godolphin filly won on her debut for Luca Cumani in a Nottingham handicap in June and is only 3 lbs higher now. She has placed on her only previous run on polytrack and over this slightly longer trip here I think she is the one that remains open to the most improvement. 11/4 Paddypower, 7.5 pt win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Rakaan won today but Suba and Silver Shoon were just touched off out of the money. 4.20 Southwell I've spent a while trying to crack this handicap as it has been ages since I last managed a winner at Southwell. Having studied the race the tissue I came up with was as follows: The Nifty Fox 15/2, Ocean Blaze 17/2, Guto 10/1, Rebel Duke 10/1, Invincible Lad 11/1, Pawan 12/1, Tabaret 12/1, Hypnosis 12/1, Luscivious 16/1, Baby Strange 18/1, Flash McGahon 18/1, Tom's Laughter 20/1, Imprimus Tagula 28/1, Lesley's Choice 33/1. The obvious discrepency between my prices and those available at the minute surround the Dandy horse, but even if my price underestimates him too much, I cannot be having him at 11/2 as I think he is one of those you have to put into the "too tough to find without guesswork" category, given his recent form. His mark has plumetted a stone and headgear may help this one that may have been plotted but I make The Nifty Fox and Luscivious the value bets in the race, and have opted for the latter. He has won three times at this course, including once over this trip, and once in this grade, and his prominent racing style is ideal for this minimum trip. It was not that long ago that we won off 4 lb lower and his run at Catterick can be ignored on the basis of a poor draw and him not having the race run to suit. At Ayr, last time out, he also broke a little slowly and was forced to race in mid-division, and that was not ideal. So although he must break better tomorrow considering they will go all guns blazing, I think he is overpriced. The yard do at least have a recent winner to their name and he wasn't disgraced running under a penalty on his last all-weather start at Wolverhampton. The return to fibresand could see him improve and I'll take him each-way at a price. 20/1 Bet 365, 7.5 pts win, 2.5 pts place (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Just one to add today from Warwick.... 2.10 Warwick I make Bold Ring a 7/1 chance here on my tissue and have him fourth favourite behind Ghost Dancer, Green Velvet and Chasca (who has just been pulled out of the race) so I am definately playing at 20/1. I respect the favourite plenty as Ryan Moore is a very eyecatching booking, but I am unwilling to take the present odds on with plenty of three year olds in this that could show improvement. Bold Ring is a course and distance winner, handles this ground and is only 4 lbs higher than her last win. She ran well at Lingfield when the race conspired against her and at Wolverhampton last time out was forced wide and did well to finish just out of the places. I've taken her each way with Green Velvet, who showed something on turf for the first time last time out at Salisbury, and who may have more wins in the offing, my saver. Bold Ring 20/1 Bet 365, 7.5 pts win, 2.5 pt place (3 places, 1/5 odds) Green Velvet 8/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 5.10 Warwick There are only five runners here, most prefer to be held up, so My Mate Max could be at an advantage under Tom Queally as he could get a soft lead. Spanish Consquent is a big threat off a mark of just 69 on his return to the flat but My Mate Max could be hard to peg back. He is a regular at this track and seems to run solid races every time. He has placed several times off this sort of mark but Queally could make all the difference here. 13/2 William Hill, 10 pts win. 5.40 Warwick Sceilin looks to be improving and has won twice of late, either side of a place behind the improving Love In the Park. In his current form he can't be discounted even if up 5 lbs as so many of these are out of form. Rehabilitation could run well at a price though. On a form line though Recalcitrant he is closely matched with the favourite and now his mark has been dropping it may only be a matter of time until he is winning again soon. Sceilin 3/1 SJ, 7.5 pts Rehabilitation 16/1 William Hill, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread A much better day yesterday with three races at Warwick producing two winners and a level profit. Lusicivious flopped at Southwell, but I haven't had a winner there for ages and that came as no surprise! 2.50 Nottingham Raimond Ridge is probably at her best over six furlongs on polytrack but she has shown bits and pieces on turf and the possibility of a strongly run five furlongs here may enable her to finish on the premises. She looks competitively handicapped and should get the race run to suit. 7/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds). 3.05 Salisbury Bet 365's 12/1 about Vhujon last night was clearly out of line and the David Evans charge has been well backed overnight into 13/2 this morning, however, it is Maverin that I think can go well here on his first start/handicap debut for Tom Dascombe. He has performed to a decent level of consistency in maidens for Jeremy Noseda and benefitted from the drop back to this trip when finishing around several subsequent winners in Yarmouth and Ripon maidens. If all is well after this 93-day break, could be handicapped to get involved here. 8/1 Paddypower, 10 pt win, 5 pt place (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2.10 Newcastle Not a race to get overly carried away about with the highest rated runner on a mark of just 60 and two at the bottom of the handicap rated in the 30's and racing way out of the handicap, however, Prince Charlmane looks a good price at 14/1. Many of these are either poor maidens or have one bit of winning form from many moons ago, so the Teague runner deserves to bit a bit shorter here in my opinion, given she is enjoying her best season to date and has won two races this season. She is only 3 lbs higher than he last win and although inconsistent and needing to bounce back after a no show here last time out, will appreciate this drop back in trip after failing to see out six furlongs last time. Her no show at Newc may also have been due, in part, to a poor draw - she was drawn low, the first two home came high. 14/1 William Hill, 5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds). 9.20 Kempton Rosie Says No is the form horse in the race having been beaten by a head on both of her last two starts. She has been running really well this season from four starts, with only one questionable run at Southwell, which is a different surface to this anyway. The slight concern is that she is drawn central tonight, and hopefully Jim can get her over to race up with the pace as Kelamon could get a soft lead from stall 10, but she is in much better form that Stuart Williams' horse and should run her usual race off just a 1 lb higher mark over a course and distance that are known to suit. 7/2 Stan James, 10 pt.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread A poor day so far with no joy as of yet. Forgot to paste in my nap from BBOTD earlier though and have had another bet too. 5.10 Nottingham Fantastic Pick - won a Redcar nursery with some authority with Ella Grace well held in second and should benefit from this step up in trip, running under a penalty. Martin Dwyer rides, and I wouldn't want anyone else on. 5/6 Bet 365, 30 pts win. 5.20 Salisbury The step up in trip should see Mykingdomofahorse improve and he looks handicapped to have a chance as only 4 lbs higher than his latest win. Ryan Moore looks an eyecatching booking and he ran a very credible race when just touched off at Goodwood last time out, so looks in good heart. 11/4 Bet 365, 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 7.50 Kempton Sunshine Always ran a solid race over a mile here last time out and fared much the best of those that raced prominently. As Watergate and Mutawarath faded to the back of the field she plugged on to take third whilst the eventual 1-2 picked her up late on coming from off the pace. She looked to be travelling really well 2f out so I think this step back in trip could help and she is allowed to race off the same mark once again. 10/1 VC Bet, 5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread With the bit of profit from the Sunshine Always place there, want to back Silver Print in the next. 8.50 Kempton Silver Print - a bit of longshot but should appreciate this step up in trip as was staying on nicely over nine furlongs at Wolverhampton last time out. May see out the trip, or may not, but is there to be chanced at the price and looks handicapped to be involved. Saw his mark drop prior to last run but handicapper has realised the error and put him up a few pounds since. May still have a little in hand. 12/1 Sky, 2.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Right, September is over, thank god for that! Profit stood at over 900 pts at one point this month but I had an awful run of about ten days ago in which lots of profit was wiped out. I tried not to panic and thought one would go in, perhaps I should have downed the stakes then to try prevent such losses. Oh well, its about learning from mistakes as they say :hope Results over the past few days haven't been too bad though, max bet Silver Shoon was only just out of the places on Monday (and some firms would have paid out on fourth had I shopped around a bit better) and today maximum bet Fantastic Pick was mugged inside the final 100 yards by a 66/1 rag with awful form which would have been extremely difficult to find given its form, or lack of it. Monday Silver Shoon -30 Rakaan +8 (WON 4/5) Suba -7.5 Pts staked: 47.5 P/L: -29.5 Tuesday Luscivious -10 Bold Ring/Green Velvet 0 (Bold Ring Placed 20/1 EW) My Mate Max +65 (WON 13/2) Sceilin/Rehabiliatation +12.5 (Scelin WON 3/1) Pts staked: 50 P/L: +67.5 Wednesday Raimond Ridge -5 Maverin -15 Prince Charlmane -10 Rosie Says No -10 Fantastic Pick -30 Mykingdomforahorse +27.5 (WON 11/4) Sunshine Always +5 (Placed 10/1 EW) Silver Print -5 Pts staked: 95 P/L: -42.5 Overall figures Pts staked: 5239.5 + 192.5 = 5432 Profit/loss: +505.42 - 4.5 = +500.92 ROI: +9 % October Aims My aim for the following month is to try be a bit more reserved with the staking. I think at some points this month I have been too free spending and splashed out too large amounts on horses that did not deserve such a strength of staking. I think that has been one of the reasons for the profit collapse because I have always thought if it loses, oh well, theres still profit to fall back on, but when you do that several times in one day it can be costly. The other two aims I have are to try cut out bets in the class 5 and 6 races as much as possible. The profit from such bets is nowhere near the same level as it is for class 4 handicaps or upwards and finally I am aiming to cut down on the number of all-weather bets included in this thread as much as possible. The AW form doesn't seem to have settled down and I have often found myself studying the evening AW cards on the back of a losing day and am guilty of chasing losses on some days. :spank There will be plenty of time to study AW over the winter once the flat season has ended in November.

[Kithanga]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

The other two aims I have are to try cut out bets in the class 5 and 6 races as much as possible. The profit from such bets is nowhere near the same level as it is for class 4 handicaps or upwards

Are you sure mate? If it's a profit then that's good and gives you some knowledge of the better animals as they move up into your class 4's. Also, what's your sample size? Is it big enough to draw a firm conclusion on? With regard to not chasing at all weather evening meetings, I'd agree. Pick your races to consider the night before and stick to them. Best of luck in October. Your form analysis and value finding are spot on. That hasn't changed, just the luck in running. Most of all keep going as even if you blow the whole profit you'll learn from it and from what I've picked up about your staking level, that isn't gonna break you financially. Better to do the learning now before you head into larger stakes as you need to be very clear on your approach by then. Hope that helps K

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Thanks K. My full spreadsheet is not with me but going on my blog results which I do have with me (which show pretty much the same stuff anyway, just dont have every single bet which this thread does and are on a 0.25-3 pt scale not 2.5-30 pts) the profit figures and no. of bets are roughly like this... Class 1 +15.21, 21 bets Class 2 +7.15, 83 bets Class 3 +16.59, 44 bets Class 4 +13.65, 103 bets Class 5 -6.25, 73 bets Class 6 +2.01, 31 bets Those stats are not fully updated for Sept yet and begin from the start of June when I began a new way of studying races - the set method I now follow for every race - and when I moved back onto my current blog. One of the other reasons I want to try bin off low grade stuff is for time reasons, as I need to start cutting back on study overall (not per race) and spend more time doing productive things in work time!

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 4.20 Newmarket Noble Storm has been in good form this season, winning three handicaps and racing at this level last time out at Beverley. He showed good speed and looked to be travelling really well inside the final furlong before the tank emptied up the stiff finish and he was collared late on. There must be a suspicion that the same thing could happen today, especially since Inxile will probably also want to lead and his stamina will be tested to the full. Himalya was an encouraging fourth in the Coventry Stakes at Ascot last year and as you would expect, that Group 2 has proven a winner finding machine with plenty of those inbehind landing Group races in the aftermath, so he has that in his favour, but he was a major disappointment at Doncaster on his only start this season when missing the break and fading some way from home, and has questions to answer for now. Excellerator ran a credible third behind Doncaster Rover at Haydock in July, but he broke slowly and was never travelling in the Nunthorpe when last seen. This looks easier, but he must bounce back today against more likelier winners. Sugar Free comes over from Ireland for Tommy Stack and won a listed race at Ayr earlier in the season, but the two that chases him home are sub-100 horses and this requires a great deal more. Run for the Hills left his form behind from last season after winning a course and distance maiden and faces a tough ask off 8-12, and Matsunosuke and Group Therapy often struggle at anything beyond handicap level. Siren's Gift flopped last time out and has failed to build upon a promising third in a fillies listed race at Bath on her reappearance, which narrows the shortlist down to just Dandy Man, Captain Gerrard, Inxile and Spin Cycle. Dandy Man was useful when with Tracey Collins but has regressed since joining Godolphin and his price looks plenty short enough today considering his only win this season came in a weak three runner conditions race at Leicester. Captain Gerrard is a dual listed and dual Group 3 winner so is another that is capable on his day, but he has had no excuses of late, when twice finishing behind Spin Cycle. Spin Cycle was rather unfrotunate to bump into Strike The Deal at Doncaster as that rival, the eventual winner, benefitted some some ingenious riding from Keiren Fallon as the Bryan Smart runner was touched off into second, and although he probably will find a race like this at some point, he faded disappointingly at Newbury last time out so it is Inxile that gets my vote. Billed as the sprint King, Dandy's results with his sprinters are actually not that standout compared to his rivals (Richard Fahey and Hugh Morrison does just as well if not better IMO), but when he does win, the wins tend to come when he puts just one into the race, rather than going in mobhanded as he does in the handicaps. Today Inxile is his only runner in the race and is a dual listed winner that has held his own up against Group 1 horses such as Kingsgate Native and Borderlescott this season (Audi Stakes, Goodwood). He was fifth last time out at Doncaster but they looked to go off at a strong pace and I can forgive him the run as he understandably faded close to home. It is also worth noting that the trainer won this race last year with Peace Offering. 5/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 3.55 Goodwood Quelaan looked a monster when hacking up at Folkestone last month and again put inferior opposition to the sword at Lingfield last time out. Acquisition chases a five timer and is another in tip-top condition but at the prices I think Rosika is worth chancing to minimal stakes. There was plenty to like about her attitude when second to the progressive Bab Al Salam at Bath last time out and she looked real battler. She disappointed on her only previous try at this trip but hit trouble when hemmed in and may be worth another chance. If you took that Haydock defeat out of her formline she'd be much shorter today. 13/2 Paddypower, 2.5 pt win. 4.30 Goodwood Rockfella won at this track last time out over slightly further but should cope with a step back in trip and has only been put up 3 lbs for his win in this grade. The second boosted the form of that race yesterday, and he should be able to continue his improvement. Caster Sugar is another that is in good form and shapes as if worth a try at this longer trip. He is 5 lbs above his last winning mark but has been in good form so I'll have him as a saver at the available price. The favourite is a big danger but could be anything on his handicap debut and its hard to weigh up the merit of his latest win. However, at the prices I have a couple of fall back options if Rockfella just misses out. Rockfella 6/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds) Caster Sugar 5/1 Bet 365, 1 pt saver 5.30 Newmarket Mount Hadley will appreciate the return to a mile here after failing to get home over further at Yarmouth last time out. He has landed a couple of races this season and was put up 8 lbs for a decent win at Beverley in August. Goes well for Callan and may bounce back here. 8/1 Stan James, 2.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 4.05 Ayr Quai d'Orsay would be dangerous if allowed an easy lead as the Johnston charge is back down to a winning mark, however, Wells Lyrical remains attractively weighted too and has fewer questions to answer. Bryan Smart's colt is a Sadler's Wells colt and although returning from an 89-day absence, has gone well returning from breaks before, and he has progressed nicely this season. A hat-trick of wins at Hamilton, Musselburgh and then Doncaster was followed up by credible placed efforts in a Ripon handicap and then the Northumberland Plate, and on that basis he looks the one to beat here with stamina assured over the trip. He wasn't disgraced behind Desert Sea at Sandown in a listed race, latest, when running off level weights with the winner (rated 3 lbs inferior) and this looks a good opportunity to continue the upward curve. 15/8 Stan James, 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 4.55 Newmarket I made some notes on this race this morning but have been sat on the fence for so long than my backside is starting to hurt. I was really impressed with Vitoria last time out when winning at Hamilton and she looks well in to me under a penalty. However, Anguz Newz is in the line up here and could potentially ruffle her up and at the price there isn't much room for doubt. Bounty Box looks progressive and may be up to defying her latest rise but she is as short as 6/4 now and for me that is too short when a horse like Vitoria is in the line up. In the end this race has become the dilemma of do I pick who I feel is the most likely winner in the race - Bounty Box - or do I side with the one that is overpriced? With sustained support for the Chris Wall charge, I make Carcinetto my bet at 22/1. She is tough as teak is this filly and I felt she had a big chance at Pontefract earlier in the season in a listed race. She finished only mid-field but confirmed she had been ready to strike by landing a Chester handicap off 95 next time out. Today she races off 97 so she looks to have every chance rating wise. She often finds trouble in running, so obviously that needs to be avoided here, and there is an argument that she is better over further. However, in putting her up, I am hoping that Angus Newz and Vitoria go off too fast and tee it up for her, as she can handle a strongly run six furlongs, although she is only a minimal bet all the same. 22/1 Paddypower, 2.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[markmywords]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread rosika was timed to perfection.

[Kithanga]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Interesting stats fin although still quite a small sample being over only a few months. I fully understand making the decision on basis of time available though. I've had to do the same. I just wouldn't want you to make the same mistake I think I might have done in hindsight. I bet across all races, age groups etc in the 80's & 90's and made good profits (0-5%ish after tax) to low stakes. I looked into results as you are doing and gradually chopped out losing or marginally profitable areas. I got to the 00's making much better percentages on much bigger stakes. That prompted me to focus more and chop more out. However, in 2003 when I bet only in non handicap races on the flat I had a dismal run of 1 win in 30 races in my supposed best area. I did recover to win on the season but it was a massive wake up call. I've tried to re-introduce other races since as I think I took it too far. But it's difficult once your betting bigger amounts as I was really starting all over again learning about these races. And I've struggled, particularly with the handicaps. When I looked into them early this season it looked like I'd made nothing other than a small loss over the whole timeframe on these races. I've broken things down since and can see that I was making a profit in these races years ago and a loss more recently. Clearly I was doing something different. I was being pushed towards the low value animals based on my 'fear' of losing. I realised (recently) that it was almost as if my fear of losing was making me lose. I then looked in why and did a lot of work on it. I'm pleased to say it's helped as I'm now profitable (and confident) in this area at last since around June this year. But it took a drop in stake and a lot of work to achieve it. Therefore, it has eventually dawned on me that I can make a profit on pretty much any type of race if I put the work in and accept that losing runs will occur no matter how much work I put in or how much I refine the selection approach. Therefore, I just need to choose an area (so I can get to know the animals and form) based on time available. That's what I've done only recently (you replied to my recent post on this). I like backing on races with exposed form but can only really focus fully on weekends and occasional midweek as time off allows. Therefore, I'm focussed now on all 3yo+ races in class 1,2 & 3 which mostly land at the bigger meetings and at weekend. I'm feeling more confident than ever and have finally settled on an approach that fits my lifestyle. So focussing on a type of race due to time available I agree with. But try not to do it for the other reason. I'd actually advise that you look into why you're not profitable in these races and try to work that out rather than exclude them. I did and this and it was really useful. Since Hitchens came in for me at 10's on Saturday I've had 5 straight losers, mostly not even troubling the judge. For the first time in ages though I'm not bothered by it as my bank is big enough and I'm confident I took value prices. So, in summary my advice would be. Don't chop too much out based on returns. Look into why the returns are poor instead and fix it so you keep the number of bets and turnover up. Best of luck mate & hope the winning run returns soon. K

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread cheers k, i really appreciate your input here. I'm in a rush at the minute, so will sit down and go through that properly later on :ok 3.05 Newmarket It is disappointing that just five line up to contest this Group 1 pot - The Shadwell Middle Park Stakes. It looks a wide open race and two of the runners come into the race unbeaten and looking for a four timer. The first of those is Actic, brought over from Ireland by Tracey Collins. He has won listed and Group 3 races back home and beat Air Chief Marshall of Aidan O'Brien's, comfortably, last time out. However, this looks a much tougher task stepping up into stronger company and others look to have run up against classier opponents. Awzaan looks to hold stronger form claims and won the Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) at Newbury last time out. As a result, he looks to emulate 2007 winner Dark Angel who also won that race en route to Newmarket. He had Radiohead back in fourth that day and looks to have a strong chance. Poet's Voice made all to win at Doncaster last time out but to me it wasn't a performance that screamed Group 1, and for me the price is too short. Showcasing looked really useful when running away with the Gimcrack 44-days ago - a race also won by 2005 winner Amadeus Wolf and is another that looks sure to go well. However, at the prices, I think Radiohead may be worth another chance. Brian Meehan's Johannesburg colt, like 2006 winner Dutch Art, tasted success in the Norfolk Stakes at Ascot (Group 2) earlier in the season, and showed he was progressing sharply by stepping up into Group 1 company to finish third in the Nunthorpe in August. That really did look a solid piece of form up against his elders, as the horses that surrounded him - Borderlescott, Benbaun and Tax Free, amongst others, are battle hardened performers and all in all it was a very credible effort outside of his own age group. His last run came in the Mill Reef Stakes when behind Awzaan and it may be that he has finished improving for the season now. That run marked his first try at further than five furlongs and perhaps he may be better over the minimum trip. Alternatively, that run may just have been a blip, and with Martin Dwyer taking over from Jamie Spencer he could show a bit more today if good enough, and with Poet's Voice in the line up there should be no hanging about, which would see the race run to suit. 16/1 Stan James, 10 pts win, 2.5 pts place (2 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

Interesting stats fin although still quite a small sample being over only a few months. I fully understand making the decision on basis of time available though. I've had to do the same. I just wouldn't want you to make the same mistake I think I might have done in hindsight. I bet across all races, age groups etc in the 80's & 90's and made good profits (0-5%ish after tax) to low stakes. I looked into results as you are doing and gradually chopped out losing or marginally profitable areas. I got to the 00's making much better percentages on much bigger stakes. That prompted me to focus more and chop more out. However, in 2003 when I bet only in non handicap races on the flat I had a dismal run of 1 win in 30 races in my supposed best area. I did recover to win on the season but it was a massive wake up call. I've tried to re-introduce other races since as I think I took it too far. But it's difficult once your betting bigger amounts as I was really starting all over again learning about these races. And I've struggled, particularly with the handicaps. When I looked into them early this season it looked like I'd made nothing other than a small loss over the whole timeframe on these races. I've broken things down since and can see that I was making a profit in these races years ago and a loss more recently. Clearly I was doing something different. I was being pushed towards the low value animals based on my 'fear' of losing. I realised (recently) that it was almost as if my fear of losing was making me lose. I then looked in why and did a lot of work on it. I'm pleased to say it's helped as I'm now profitable (and confident) in this area at last since around June this year. But it took a drop in stake and a lot of work to achieve it. Therefore, it has eventually dawned on me that I can make a profit on pretty much any type of race if I put the work in and accept that losing runs will occur no matter how much work I put in or how much I refine the selection approach. Therefore, I just need to choose an area (so I can get to know the animals and form) based on time available. That's what I've done only recently (you replied to my recent post on this). I like backing on races with exposed form but can only really focus fully on weekends and occasional midweek as time off allows. Therefore, I'm focussed now on all 3yo+ races in class 1,2 & 3 which mostly land at the bigger meetings and at weekend. I'm feeling more confident than ever and have finally settled on an approach that fits my lifestyle. So focussing on a type of race due to time available I agree with. But try not to do it for the other reason. I'd actually advise that you look into why you're not profitable in these races and try to work that out rather than exclude them. I did and this and it was really useful. Since Hitchens came in for me at 10's on Saturday I've had 5 straight losers, mostly not even troubling the judge. For the first time in ages though I'm not bothered by it as my bank is big enough and I'm confident I took value prices. So, in summary my advice would be. Don't chop too much out based on returns. Look into why the returns are poor instead and fix it so you keep the number of bets and turnover up. Best of luck mate & hope the winning run returns soon. K

Found some time to read this now. I get what you are saying, and you are probably right, the sample size I am drawing conclusions from is too small but I really do need to cut down on the number of hours I devote to racing as it impedes on my working hours which is naughty. I do need to sit down and work out why the profit in class 5/6 is less. I lazily adopted the attitude of it being down the nature of the beasts at these levels - they are less consistent. That may be wrong, but that was how I justified my decision to try cut down on those classes. The other reason was because I often find studying those races dull. Horses at that level are very hit and miss and I seem to have found several (Thoughtsofstardom springs to mind immediately) that hinted at a revival last time out, so I back it. It flops, but low and behold, next time out it wins. I hate such situations, and I also think the lower grade races are more open to skullduggery. If I am studying a class 2 handicap worth £50k I know all jockeys will give their all for the prize, but in the dirge races, I think many would be tempted to take a bung if it exceeds the money they can earn from their share of the prize money, so there is always the risk of that too. Earlier in the season I decided to try focus my attention on the sprints and 1m 2f races as that is where big profits were coming from, but even when I focused solely on those races i hit winning runs, and like you say, if a losing run is gonna hit, it will hit whether I am only looking at 5f races or 5,6,7,8 or 9f races etc.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Radiohead bounced back earlier with a very good second in the Group 1. Granted a good pace to chase it won't be long until he is tasting Group success again. The bet broke even, as I weighted the stake in favour of the win component of the bet. 3.40 Newmarket (Saturday) This looks a mouthwatering renewal of the Cambridgeshire and several familiar faces line up for the 1m 1f contest. Kaolak is dangerous when allowed an easy lead but dominating such a large field here will be hard. With hindsight I don't think he was suited by a sharp track such as Chester last time out. He is a big strong horse, more suited to a straight track where he can use his power to burn them off. I think the handicapper may have him now though and although I have backed Charm School for both of his last runs I feel he wants a trip of 1m 2f to show his best so am avoiding that one too. Sirvino won the John Smith's Cup last time out and has another 9 lbs to shrug off here but so progressive he has been this season - after starting the season on a mark of 65 - you really couldn't put it past him. Nevertheless, there is a slight doubt as to how much he has in hand of the handicapper so for that reason I am swerving in favour of Almiqdaad. Michael Jarvis' Haafhd colt is lightly raced and was better than the bare result of his runs at Newmarket and Sandown in June when he was never able to get into the race. However, stepping up into a large field at Newbury last time he was granted a proper pace for the first time and was a commanding winner infront of the Irish raider Drunken Sailor. He gets into this race under a penalty as a consequence of that win, and as a result looks ahead of the handicapper so is my pick. 12/1 Bet 365, 5 pts win, 2.5 pts place (5 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2.05 Epsom I posted Potentiale last time out and am sticking with the John Hills trained gelding here as I think he was worth much more than the winning margin suggested last time out. Richard Hills was as cool as you like on him as he waited for a gap, and once switched for a run he ran on well to suggest a 5 lb rise may not be able to prevent a hat-trick. 11/2 Bet 365, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2.40 Redcar White Dart hacked up over course and distance in a qualifier for this last time out to get himself into the race. That was his second win for this yard, having moved on from Dandy Nicholls in the summer. He appeared to respond really well to first time cheekpieces last time out and slammed Opus Maximus (who reopposes today) by four lengths with Benandonner, a reliable yardstick for this type of event, back in third. That bit of form reads well and if the headgear works its magic again, he could go well as Dream Lodge and Mountain Cat should set this up nicely. It may also be significant that Silvestre de Sousa is booked. He has ridden a couple of these into this race in the past few months, but opts for this one for the proper race itself. 10/1 SJ, 5 pts win, 2.5 pts place (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 3.15 Redcar Singeur has been hugely progressive this season and is another bargain purchase from Robin Bastiman. He won a Southwell maiden on his second start and started the season on a mark of 71. Now he is rated nearly two stone higher after three further wins. This his toughest race to date but often hinted worth a try at six furlongs and could feasibly bounce back. 14/1 Sporting Bet, 2.5 pt EW (4 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 3.55 Redcar Carcinetto belied her starting price when fourth at Newmarket on Thursday. This return to 7f will suit as she was staying on over 6f that day. I was Sweet on Tombi at Ayr last time out (ran a cracker on the near side - the unfavoured rail) but the price here is too short IMO so I'm ducking the Johnson horse in favour of the David Evans one, with the booking of Tom Queally a massive positive. 33/1 SJ, 2.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 9.15 Wolverhampton In the lucky last Wind Flow may be worth chancing now re-united with Cathy Gannon. She knows how to get a tune out of him (five wins together) and he looks to have ideal conditions here - his visor fitted, races off a mark 3 lb lower than his last win, the possibility of a soft lead, and racing over and track and distance over which he is proven. His last effort in a course seller hinted he was ready to strike again soon so I've taken the tens on offer. I was trying to cut out AW racing until the end of the month but this looks massively overpriced in my opinion. 10/1 Bet 365, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Wind Flow ran a cracker at Wolverhampton last night, only going down inside the final 100 yards after battling all the way down the stretch. 1.55 Dundalk Diva Dolce remains ahead of the handicapper and can bounce back from a disappointing run over a stamina sapping seven furlongs at Fairyhouse, latest, to land this for Kevin Prendergast. She appeared to have been let into handicaps lightly on an opening mark of 72 at the Curragh in September and I lapped up the generous odds available that day. She showed a good attitude and shaped as if further improvement was forthcoming, but having been stepped up to seven furlongs in a large field handicap last time out I temporarily broke off my following. Back over a suitable trip though she is carrying my money once more. She handles the surface judging by her third here in September and with jockey Egan claiming 10 lbs as usual, she is 7 lbs above her last winning mark. That should not halt the improvement of a filly that chased home Kitty Kiernan and Lilly Langtry on her debut at Naas and she looks several points overpriced. 10/1 Stan James, 10 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 12.45 Longchamp - Prix de l'Abbaye I think this should be a run at a good pace and so am having a tentative punt on Sohraab from the Hughie Morrison yard. English trainers do really well in this type of race and although usually I would be looking for one with proven Group form, I did notice that several past winners of this won the race with no previous group form, some even coming straight from handicaps, so that hasn't offput me totally as he seems to be improving. Sohraab has a bit to find on the figures but has progressed this season. He has come close to landing a couple of listed races, running a cracker at Chester from a wide draw when only a length and a half behind Borderlescott, and when second to Invincible Lad at Beverley. He was really disappointing at Newbury last time out and his price today takes into consideration that poor showing. However, he can take inspiration from Desert Lord, who finished last of five on his last race before taking this in 2006 for Kevin Ryan. It is probably a big ask for him here but given the piece of form with Borderlescott (who is only 5/1 here), I couldn't resist a cheeky punt. 66/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). Also having a bet on Borderlescott out of loyalty. 3.15 Longchamp Dar Re Mi was harshly robbed of her victory in the Prix Vermeille at this track last time out and it would be ever so sweet if she could plunder the most prestigious race in the French calendar tomorrow to gain compensation and stick two fingers up at the Longchamp stewards in the process. John Gosden's filly has been in tremendous form this season winning back to back Group 1 races in Ireland (Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh) and England (Yorkshire Oaks at York) and should have added another one to the trophy cabinet of owner Andrew Lloyd Webber having crossed the line first here three weeks ago. However, she was alleged to have interfered with the fifth placed runner Soberani (who appeared to have been well beaten) and so was demoted to fifth as the Stewards made a song and dance about it with the second, French horse Stacelita, awarded the race to maintain her unbeaten six race record. Despite losing the race officially, she is the winner in my eyes, so arrives into this race having won a good trial for this race (was won by Zarkava last year, incidentally, with Dar Re Mi back in second) and is perhaps the pick of those fillies looking to mix it up with the colts. All that said, the Dar Re Mi situation is only a side issue and the main hype surrounding the race centres around the legendary Sea The Stars who bids to become the first ever horse to win the 2,000 Guineas, Derby and L'arc de Triomphe. He looks to go one better than Nijinsky who, having landed the Guineas and Derby in 1970, was beaten by a head in this race all those years ago. If Sea The Stars wins tomorrow it will be fantastic for racing and Christopher Tsui's aides will no doubt be rushing to catch him before he feints again. John Oxx's colt has been a revelation this season and earned connections over £2m in prize money as well as a huge value as a potential stallion. If he wins, fair play to a tremendous horse, but such is his domination of the market, getting a horse placed at each-way odds will beat the odds on Sea The Stars winning anyway, so I am hoping Dar Re Mi can settle the side issue and sneak into the frame under Jimmy Fortune. 25/1 Ladbrokes, 2.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).