Fintron's Flat Thread 2009 - Final Profit +478.17 pts

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 3.25 Tipperary Duff won well when burning off the likes of Stimulation and Cat Junior at Doncaster last time out, adding a Group 2 win to his collection that includes a Group 3 and four listed races. He could dominate this small field as he seems to act just as well on turf as he does on the all-weather. 3/1 Paddypower, 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Sohraab is 20/1 TBP (3 placed with Bet 365). 10 pts, same reasoning as above.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 5.20 Warwick Dubai crest - competitevly weight, gets wfa allowance, gets trip, good jockey booking. 11/2 sj, 5 pt ew

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 3.40 Pontefract Bea Menace - stayed on strongly to win a handicap at Folkestone earlier in season and this track suits running style. If stays a mile here could go well under Joe Fanning. 14/1 SJ, 2.5 pts EW (2 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Bea Menace won at 14/1 yesterday so profit was made on the day even though Dubai Crest disappointed at Warwick. 4.20 Folkestone Rosy Dawn is 1 lb lower than when winning over course and distance in August. She encounters similar sort of ground here and has won for jockey Halford previously. 14/1 SJ, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds). 4.30 Catterick Mystified is a course and distance winner around these parts and has been holding his form well this season even though switched between handicaps and claimers. He is only 1 lb higher than when touched off by a neck at Redcar and with effectiveness on fast ground proven, could go well. 5/1 SJ, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 4.40 Leicester Dancing Wave remains competitively handicapped on a mark of 58 as he recenty won at Redcar off 55 and placed off this mark when beaten by half a length by Piste at Windsor. There is good reason to believe he could run well here as he is a distance winner and acts on quick ground although he is banking on a mini break prompting a revival. 25/1 SJ, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 4.50 Folkestone Dove Cottage has slipped to a mark 3 lbs lower than when successful at Goodwood last season and after starting the season on a mark of 74, has now slipped some 8 lbs lower and it may only be a matter of time until he pops up. 5/1 SJ, 10 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds). 5.30 Catterick Dramatic Solo was unpenalised for a win in an apprentices race at Musselburgh in August and although he has gone up 2 lbs in the interim despite winning, he remains nicely weighted with Martin Lane taking off 5 lbs. His stamina is assured here and if able to shrug off course and distance winner Nawamees, could go well. 12/1 SJ, 2.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2.50 Folkestone Choreography - responded well to first time blinkers when winning at Brighton two runs ago and although he didn't do himself justice last time out, did pull hard and wasn't seen to best effect. Has won off this mark previously and could bounce back today. 20/1 Boyle, 2.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[stewartd14]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Class call with Bea Menace :clap:clap:clap

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Cheers Stew. Todays have been a bit of a mixed bag. Rosy Dawn, Dancing Wave and Mystifed were all nowhere, but Dove Cottage just won well at 5/1 at Folkestone and with the biggest stake of the day on that one a profit is thankfully guaranteed for today, with Dramatic Solo still to run, albeit only as a minimum fancy bet.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 4.40 Nottingham Wing Play failed to make up ground on the leading pair last time out but may still have more to offer despite being 7 lbs above his last winning mark. George Baker is a good judge of pace and could get him involved late in the day when the early leaders are tiring. 9/1 VC Bet, 2.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 6.20 Kempton Posy Fossil was backed heavily on Betfair last time out as his price crashed from three figures into around 6/1 ish come the off. The market is generally a good guide with this yard and he wants monitoring today as he wasn't disgraced last time out behind a winner that had already flown. 7/1 SJ, 2.5 pt EW (3 places, 1.5 odds). 6.50 Kempton Uncle Fred disappointed in the Brighton mile last time out when racing prominently but a likely return to hold up tactics here could see him in a better light. He remains open to improvement after just seven starts, acts on polytrack judging by his second to Cool Hand Jake, shapes as if this step up in trip will suit, and is only 2 lbs higher than his last win. 10/1 SJ, 10 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds). 7.20 Kempton Megalala is 4 lbs higher than when winning in this grade at Brighton earlier in the season but the booking of Marc Halford puts him effectively only 1 lb higher so his mark, coupled with a good high draw and course and distance winning form, means he is an attractive bet at 16/1. Cape Marien looks ahead of the handicapper and dominates the betting but a slight chink in his armours is that that win came over further, hence the rationale behind taking him on with Megalala here. 16/1 SJ, 15 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Uncle Fred dotted up yesterday for a 17/2 winner considering the 15p R4 on the 10/1 taken. That ensured profit on the day but none of the other three made the frame. Not a great day of racing today so just the two flat bets. 3.20 Newbury Mildoura - lightly raced after only a few starts, already landed a handicap off 78, was then narrowly beaten off 78 last time out. Up a further 4 lbs but progressing and could go well at a price. 14/1 SJ, 2.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 5.00 Newbury Yellow Printer was running in better races than this when with Tom Dascombe. Now with a different yard he was sent hurdling last time out and made several jumping errors. However, he will apreciate this return to the flat in the immediate term and could have place claims at a price given a few bits of placed form he has managed this summer. 18/1 Hills, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).Silent Oasis looks well handicapped on maiden form. Has had problems as has skipped a couple of engagements but not taking a risk and having as a 0.1 pt saver, 12/1 SJ.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 6.30 Kempton Maoi Chinn Tire - showed signs of greeness when hanging left and throwing the race away at Newbury in August but cheekpieces applied for the first time today could set him straight. Looks well handicapped and has been well supported in past to suggest his homework has been up to scratch too. 7/1 Bet 365, 5 pts EW.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread I've been really busy this week and fallen behind with an update. This brings everything up to date as of tonight... Opening bank: +500.92 Thursday Inxile -5 (5) Rosika +16.25 (2.5) (WON 13/2) Rockfella/Caster Sugar 0 (6) Mount Hadley -5 Wells Lyrical -10 Carcinetto -5 Pts staked: 33.5 P/L: -8.75 Friday Radiohead 0 (12.5) (Placed 16/1) Pts staked: 12.5 P/L: 0 Saturday Almiqdaad -5 (5) Potentiale -10 (10) White Dart -5 (5) Singeur -5 (5) Carcinetto -5 (5) Wind Flow +7.5 (10) (Placed 10/1) Pts staked: 40 P/L: -22.5 Sunday Diva Dolce -20 (20) Sohraab -15 (15) Dar Re Mi -5 (5) Duff +30 (10) (WON 3/1) Pts staked: 50 P/L: -10 Monday Dubai Crest -10 (10) Bea Menace +43.5 (5) (WON 14/1) Pts staked: 15 P/L: +33.5 Tuesday Rosy Dawn -10 (10) Mystified -10 (10) Dancing Wave -10 (10) Dove Cottage +60 (20) (WON 5/1) Dramatic Solo NR Choreography -5 (5) Pts staked: 55 P/L: +25 Wednesday Wing Play -5 (5) Posy Fossil -5 (5) Uncle Fred +102 (20) (15p R4) (WON 10/1 -15p R4) Megalala -30 (30) Pts staked: 60 P/L: +62 Thursday Mildoura -5 (5) Yellow Printer/Silent Oasis -11 (11) Maoi Chinn Tire +3.75 (10) Pts staked: 26 P/L: -12.25 Overall figures Pts staked: 5432 + 292 = 5724 Profit/loss: +500.92 + 67 = +567.92 ROI: +9.9 %

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread A couple for tomorrow from York... 3.20 York Hail Promenader won a Redcar maiden last season and is yet to score in handicaps this season, but has been running really consistently and looks to hold a decent chance tomorrow racing against his elders. Barry Hills isn't one to go tilting at windmills and his Acclamatation colt looks well placed here against older and more exposed horses. He has repeatedly shown seven furlongs is his trip, whilst his running style will suit this track. 12/1 SJ, 7.5 pts EW (4 places, 1/4 odds). 4.30 York Hotham has enjoyed a super season and could notch up a third win of the season for local trainer Noel Wilson, capitalising off the likely breakneck gallop. He came from off the pace to mug La Capriosa on the line at Pontefract earlier in the season, has since won again at Redcar, and ran a massive race at Doncaster when only a neck behind Silver Wind off 78. He was raised 3 lbs for that run when disappointing in the Bronze Cup at Ayr latest, but you can cross a line through that run given the low draw bias that prevailed at that meeting. He races off a previous winning mark, has won under Gary Bartley previously, and may go well tomorrow if getting the gaps. 16/1 Bet 365, 10 pts EW (4 places, 1/4 odds).

[StuSimmy]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Some nice profits again over the past few days fintron, keep it up :)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

Some nice profits again over the past few days fintron' date=' keep it up :)[/quote'] Cheers :hope 3.30 Lingfield I Confess is only lb higher than his latest win and did as well as could have been expected of him at Chester last time out when having to concede the lead to better drawn rivals. He acts around here and should go well. 8/1 SJ, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). Trade Centre rediscovered the ability to win last time out and is ahead of the handicapper, so having that as a saver, 16/1 VC Bet, 1 pt. 5.40 Lingfield Wind Flow was very unlucky to lose at Wolverhampton the other night after making all of the running and battling on well on the straight. He is a gutsy so and so and with Ashley Morgan replacing Cathy Gannon, the weight reprieve could prove useful. Acts on course and over trip. 8/1 SJ, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 5.50 Wolverhampton This looks like it could be fast and furious and with that in mind it could pay to side with the well handicapped Kyle. Conor Dore's gelding won off 75 last season and 72 this time around, both on turf, but even on the all-weather too he has shown he acts on this surface and his current mark of 67 means he is there to be chanced at the price. For example, in his juvenile days he was placed in a couple of polytrack maidens at Lingfield, then in 2007 he was placed at Kempton off 84. His last run in this sphere came in August when he was 9th of 12 at Kempton but the front pair are decent sorts for the grade and it is worth noting that even those behind him have won or ran well since; Brunelleschi (12th) won a Newmarket handicap next time out, Bel Cantor (11th) has placed a couple of times since and the 10th, Jordaura, was beaten by a short head in a handicap next time out, so the form isn't as bad as it looks at first glance. A world beater he is not but Travis Block takes the ride, which is a further positive. 28/1 SJ, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread A couple of placers today more or less covers the stakes from the losers. 2.05 York Makaamen - still showing signs of greenness but handicapped to win more races if in the right mood and form of penultimate race working out really nicely even if must bounce back after last effort. 16/1 SJ, 2.5 pts EW (4 places, 1/4 odds). 2.40 York According to Pete is a smart national hunt horse and its so tempting to smash him off a mark of just 65 back on the flat. However, he is rated in line with a basement grade handicapper for good reason because he has never won on the flat, but I do feel he will appreciate this more thorough test of stamina. A recent pipeopener will have blown away the cobwebs and could go well for Malcolm Jefferson. 14/1 Paddypower, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 3.45 York Johannes hasn't done himself justice in recent starts but before that was progressing sharply. Trainer Richard Fahey rarely leaves the Knavesmire empty handed and this course and distance winner could go well. 20/1 SJ (4 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

4.05 Ascot Quadrille won on his debut in a Newbury maiden and then followed up when stepped up to this trip at Kempton last time out. Looks to be going the right way and form of last race has worked out well. 13/8 Bet >365, 15 pts win 5.15 Ascot Bucked Off was a respectable fourth at Ayr over this trip and came the closest he has got to winning in the UK when fourth at this track last time out over a mile. There doesn’t look to be much pace on the cards here, which would play into his hands. 33/1 SJ, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 5.30 York Hindu Kush has the ability to win a race like this as he won a listed race at Leopardstown in May. He has failed to win since and has a little to prove off the back of recent form, but he has plummeted in the handicap to a new career low, and may bounce back. I'll have him as a saver at the available odds, but Bajan Parkes may be overpriced at 28/1. He is only a few pounds higher than his last winning mark and he a dual winner in this grade. His stamina is assured too. Bajan Parkes 28/1 >Paddypower, 2.5 pts EW (4 places, 1/4 odds). Hindu Kush 10/1 >Paddypower, 0.5 pt saver

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread A crap day today to be honest. I've missed all the racing being at the football but tracked the 5.15 at Ascot via Betfair. Bucked Off was trading at 11/2 but never made the frame and hung left inside the final furlong. I thought he was gonna go close after seeing his odds collapse into 14/1 at SP from 33/1 this morning but a day of losers unfortunately. From Goodwood tomorrow.... 3.10 Goodwood We Have A Dream has been in great form of late and won doing cartwheels around Folkestone last time out. He runs under a 6 lb penalty and although that means a career best is needed, he has proven he acts over this course and distance and in his current mood he demands the utmost respect. The fact Martin Dwyer isn't on is a negative but other than that he ticks every box. Arthur's Edge ran him close the other day but races from out of the handicap today and the William Muir trained gelding may bag another win here. 9/2 Bet 365, 15 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread We Have a Dream was well beaten there, Im not gonna bother watching the race but I wish Martin Dwyer had been on that.... 4.45 Lingfield Jadalee remains remarkably well handicapped on his old form and with trainer Gerard Butler banging in the winners at the minute he looks sure to go well at the Surrey track today. This is an animal that won at listed level in 2006 and was only a couple of lengths off Sixties Icon in a Group 3. Even last year he was narrowly beaten off 108 in an AW handicap. More recently he has been running in class 4 and 5 handicaps, having missed the whole of 2007, but a couple of good runs off 70 last month showed he is back on the straight and narrow and even off 4 lb higher now he looks the one they have to beat. The booking of Hayley Turner another positive. 7/2 Bet 365, 10 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 4.35 Curragh Silverhand - backed this in the Irish Cesarewitch the other week. Stayed on well but also acts over this trip, as shown at this track the week before. The number of Aidan O'Brien runners in this race is ridiculous, but at least one should go off fast and set it up for this fellow at the same time. 7/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pt EW.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread This brings everything up to date before next week..... Friday Hail Promenader -15 (15) Hotham +30 (20) (Placed 16/1 EW) I Confess/Trade Centre -11 (11) Wind Flow +5 (10) (Placed 8/1 EW) Kyle -10 (10) Pts staked: 66 P/L: -1 Saturday Makaamen -5 (5) According to John -10 (10) Johannes -5 (5) Quadrille -15 (15) Bucked Off -10 (10) Hindu Kush/Bajan Parkes -5.5 (5.5) Pts staked: 50.5 P/L: -50.5 Sunday We Have A Dream -30 (30) Jadalee -10 (10) Silverhand +21 (5) (WON 7/1) Pts staked: 45 P/L: -19 Overall figures Pts staked: 5724 + 161.5 = 5885.5 Profit/loss: +567.92 -70.5 = +497.42 ROI: +8.45 %

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread A new scale for the staking will be adopted now until the end of the season - 1 pt to 10 pt. 3.45 Salisbury Indian Art won here in a course and distance claimer in July but has aquitted himself well back in handicaps since, going down narrowly at Chepstow off 3 lb lower and running well enough behind Ravi River at Lingfield, latest. Bawaardi is open to a good deal of improvement and could have been let in lightly on a mark of 73. There is a risk he may bounce though as he's only had the one run since being gelded, so having a little more than a saver. Indian Art 25/1 SJ, 1 pt EW (4 places, 1/4 odds) Bawaardi 6/1 Bet 365, 0.25 pt saver 4.20 Salisbury Huzzah is a decent horse and could gain a long overdue win here for his first win of the season. He has ran some decent races in defeat at times, leading in the Lincoln for some way on his reappearance and chasing home Forgotten Voice at Ascot, but without a win for some time his mark has dropped down to 95 today. That puts him 3 lbs lower than at the start of the season and only 2 lb higher than when winning at Chester last May. Handles cut and a course and distance winner. 14/1 SJ, 2 pts EW (4 places, 1/4 odds). 4.30 Kempton Bahamian Lad much prefers the all-weather to turf and looks well drawn to attack a field that could quite easily find themselves caught on the back foot here. He's 4 lb higher than his latest win but looks set to bounce back after finding himself with a difficult draw at Wolverhampton last time out. 10/1 Paddypower, 3 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 5.00 Kempton I remember Balnagore well from his run here in July. There looked to be a furious gallop on the cards so I opposed all of the front runners with 33/1 hold up horse Scamperdale, who came flying from the clouds to take the race. However, Balnagore was one I took from the race as he showed a superb attitude and ran a cracker n second, even though the way the race was run counted against him. I hope he can use those same battling qualities this afternoon to shake off Buddy Holly who may potentially pester him for the lead. If he can shrug him off, with Martin Lane taking off a handy 5 lbs, he could be handicapped to have a chance as he's eased 2 lbs from his last AW run and only 5 lbs higher than his last win. 12/1 Bet 365, 3 pts EW. 6.00 Kempton Connections of Dvinsky must have been growing frustrated as the gelding hasn't had conditions in his favour for some time, infact, he hasn't been able to make the running since the back end of April. In that time his mark has dropped 11 lbs, 10 lbs lower than his last winning mark. Today, I am hoping that patience will be rewarded, as this looks a great opportunity to get back to winning ways in a race that on paper is crying out for a runner to dominate. 15/2 VC Bet, 6 pts win/4 pts place (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[RussP]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

4.30 Kempton Bahamian Lad much prefers the all-weather to turf and looks well drawn to attack a field that could quite easily find themselves caught on the back foot here. He's 4 lb higher than his latest win but looks set to bounce back after finding himself with a difficult draw at Wolverhampton last time out. 10/1 Paddypower, 3 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

6.00 Kempton Connections of Dvinsky must have been growing frustrated as the gelding hasn't had conditions in his favour for some time, infact, he hasn't been able to make the running since the back end of April. In that time his mark has dropped 11 lbs, 10 lbs lower than his last winning mark. Today, I am hoping that patience will be rewarded, as this looks a great opportunity to get back to winning ways in a race that on paper is crying out for a runner to dominate. 15/2 VC Bet, 6 pts win/4 pts place (3 places, 1/4 odds).

Top bombing Fin:clap Love how you solved the 6.00, nice analysis rewarded.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

Top bombing Fin:clap Love how you solved the 6.00, nice analysis rewarded.

Cheers mate. Dvinsky was all out to score in the finale but I'm not complaining. A little annoyed that on the day I decide to down stakes from 2.5-30 pt to 1-10 point I manage two winners, but thats life :\ and I do think with many horses tiring at the end of long seasons I am probably best trying to keep hold of what I have got and try prevent wiping out current profit at what is traditionally a difficult time of the season with weather wreaking havoc too?

[RussP]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

Cheers mate. Dvinsky was all out to score in the finale but I'm not complaining. A little annoyed that on the day I decide to down stakes from 2.5-30 pt to 1-10 point I manage two winners, but thats life :\ and I do think with many horses tiring at the end of long seasons I am probably best trying to keep hold of what I have got and try prevent wiping out current profit at what is traditionally a difficult time of the season with weather wreaking havoc too?

Wonderful thing hindsight;). Personally, I think it's a wise move to down stakes but, only if you're concerned about the end of season lull. Don't do it to preserve what you have....your methods have worked this season, I don't see any reason why they should desert you now. Great stuff buddy.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Well I made the decision to up my stakes when I felt as though things were going my way around June time. Up to then a lot of the bets in here had only been 1 pt - 3 pt, so when I felt the winners were obtainable I tried to up stakes to cash in and implemented the 2.5 -30 pt range. But the turf results seem to be petering out now so it seems sensible to down stakes, and learn my lesson from last season (when again, I had a slow start, purple patch in the middle, then a sticky end). I'm getting a bit bored with the flat now anyway, and can't wait to get stuck into some more handicap chases this season and specialise. I think I'll probably dig out the old all-weather thread too and have another crack at that for a while.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2 great winners today maye, congrats :nana

[Stevet1859]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Couple of real crackers today Fin - great stuff :clap