Fintron's Flat Thread 2009 - Final Profit +478.17 pts

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread I have two early bets for tomorrow, with another in the Redcar nursery to possibly follow in the morning, price permitting... 3.10 Goodwood We Have Dream ran a big race at Epsom last time out and was only beaten by a short head by Idle Power. An undulating track evidently poses no problems for the William Muir trained gelding and even after a 2 lb rise from his last run he can be considered well handicapped on his old form as he has won off 7 lb higher previously. 10/3 Bet 365, 15 pt win. 7.20 Kempton Cool Hand Jake is a regular around here and has won twice over a mile. The drawback for him is that he has started to look exposed over that trip but this step up to one and a quarter miles could unlock further improvement. He responded well to a first time tongie-tie last time out and hinted he wanted further than a mile when third to The Scorching Wind that day. 6/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2.15 Redcar Just The Tonic has recently left Mick Channon to join Marjorie Fife and was an encouraging fourth on her debut for this yard in a selling nursery when last seen at Beverley. She is yet to win after ten attempts, but this step up to a mile could bring about improvement off this lowly mark of 57. 16/1 SJ, 2.5 pts EW (4 places, 1/4 odds). 5.10 Redcar Under Review missed the break on her debut for David Barron at Goodwood last time out but stuck on well in the closing stages, despite the fact the winner (who was enterprisingly ridden by Ryan Moore) had flown. That indicated some sort of return to form as she had won a maiden at Southwell for her previous trainer but had been struggling in handicaps. Her mark has dropped to an attractive level and with Makin taking over from a claimer, a big run could be on the cards. 15/2 Bet 365, 2.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 8.20 Kempton Agony and Ecstasy appreciated the step up to a mile when winning at Lingfield last time out and with promising apprentice John Fahy booked, she could have a chance from a high draw here. 9/1 Boylesports, 2.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

Eton Rifles -0.75 pts Angus Newz -10 pts Fancy Footsteps -20 pts Heureux -10 pts this is too good...

:lol If you wanna play the cherry picking results game I can play too.... Gallant Eagle WON 16/1 Nashmiah WON 20/1 Comadoir WON 20/1 Plum Pudding WON 16/1 We Have a Dream WON 12/1 Sesenta WON 25/1 Blue Jack WON 16/1 Diva Dolce WON 16/1 Dangerous Midge WON 16/1

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

Eton Rifles -0.75 pts Angus Newz -10 pts Fancy Footsteps -20 pts Heureux -10 pts this is too good...

W anker. If you don't like it then piss off. Fintron works too hard on this to have dickheads like you highlighting his losers. You must be a really sad individual

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

W anker. If you don't like it then piss off. Fintron works too hard on this to have dickheads like you highlighting his losers. You must be a really sad individual

Nice one Wizzkid. He is a spammer or backwards. I've just clicked on his profile and checked out his other posts, he posted some drivel in BBOTD that made no sense whatsoever and posted something sarcastic and unfunny in the Kempton thread too. I don't mind people criticising constructively and I haven't hidden from the fact my thread has been poor in the last week, but if joe nobody comes on here having a go then I will respond.

[puntalara]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

W anker. If you don't like it then piss off. Fintron works too hard on this to have dickheads like you highlighting his losers. You must be a really sad individual

Well said :clap

[Trendsman]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread There are so many people watching this forum that are jealous of your expertise Fintron. The guy above being one of them. W anker was to polite Wizzkid imo.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread thanks for the comments lads, much appreciated. Russ had a similar comment on his thread no so long since and only the other day I got a suspicious comment or two on my blog to which I had to respond. Probably the same guy. :\ I am aware that my thread probably isn't a good one to follow as it involves backing lots of selections each day which people (I speak with regards to the lurkers here) don't want really if they are looking for a tipster. Lurkers ideally want one tip a day max and want to be in profit at the end of the month, but they won't get that from my thread (one bet per day) I'm afraid. I am wary of the fact my thread is always bumped to the top of the page and although that is something that I don't like as it could be seen as trying to always be in the spotlight, its something I can't help now really as this thread has become my flat diary documenting every bet, and I don't want to leave selections out, as I want as truer picture as possible come November. Plenty of the posters that have posted in my thread do their own thing anyway and although reading this thread, will not follow religiously. I think this guy is a lurker that has probably tried to a follow a few of my picks in the last week on what has been my worst run of the season, done his money, then signed up to have a pop, so is looking at things from a different point of view to a genuine PL member that may click into the thread to read another opinion on their race to see if it is similar to their own, if you get me.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 8.50 Kempton Cheap Thrills looks interesting at 66/1. She hasn't had much racing on the all-weather and from what we have seen on her I would have expected her to be a quarter of those odds at the very most here. Her large price is probably due to the dire form of Jamie Osbourne's yard, as he can't find a win for love nor money at the moment, but at the price I can look beyond that and take a chance. She won a competitive three year olds handicap at Newmarket earlier in the season over this trip and has already won on poly. Last time out she made the running at Wolverhampton before finding the classy Regeneration too good, but she edged right inside the final furlong and maybe this right handed track may be more suitable. I might have overlooked something that makes this a daft bet but at the odds, what the hell. 66/1 Blue Sq, 2.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread One for tomorrow.. 3.30 Pontefract Despite its classification as a class 5 - 0-75 handicap this looks quite an interesting race on paper. Mr Wolf is a standing dish around here and couldn't have hoped for a better draw as he bids for an eighth course win. He races off a winning mark, but there looks to be plenty of pace on here from the likes of Tangerine Trees and Go Go Green which would count against him as he enjoys an uncontested lead. Tangerine Trees has been in good form this season, stringing together a hat-trick at Hamilton, but he was found out at Redcar last time out and he is poorly drawn tomorrow. Select Committee has been knocking on the door and with a decent apprentice booked could go well but it is the runners with course and distance form that interest me most here as some horses struggle on the stiff finish. King of Swords defied a poor draw to win at huge odds at Beverley last time out and will appreciate his position in stall 4 tomorrow. Running under a penalty for his last win he could feasibly take his recent record to 4-5, but two other course winners are bigger priced and grabbed my attention. Dickie Le Davoir won here in July but he is 8 lbs higher now and may have simply exploited a generous mark that day so Commander Wish is the one I'm on. Lucinda Featherstone's is only a small yard but she recorded a winner the other day and her gelding is capable of running big races here when granted a fast pace to chase - which he may well get tomorrow. He won here off 63 on good to firm ground last August, will get identical going tomorrow, yet runs off a lower rating of 61 (taking into account he races from 4 lbs out of the handicap). He cannot be backed with a great deal of confidence given his inconsistent profile, but if you were to name his ideal conditions then they would be that which he will get for this race and he has ran his best two races of the season at the West Yorkshire track - on the 8th June when 3rd of 15, btn 1.81l off 67 and then on 16th August when finishing mid-field when trying to come from off the pace in a race in which it paid to race prominently. 22/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Disappointed run from Commander Wish. Jolted a bit leaving the stalls but given too much ground to make up as they hit the 2f pole. It got caned to, into 8/1 in places this morning, although I think went back out to 11/1 SP. The winner ran a barnstorming race as he got taken on for the lead by Dvinsky. Tylicki on yet another winner, what a great apprentice he is. One for tonight at Kempton. 9.00 Kempton Perfect Act hasn't had much racing over this distance and has often hinted that a step back from seven furlongs would work in her favour. She ran over course and distance last time out in a claimer and did as well as could have been expected at the weights as she gave weight away to both the winner and the runner up. You take your chance backing any hold up horse at Kempton as they don't always get a run, but I think she could stay on well tonight and would have a chance in a race where there looks to be plenty of pace on. 9/1 VC Bet, 2.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 8.00 Kempton This is a claimer for 2 yo's only so in many ways it is similar to a nursery. Having studied them a bit this season Jehu and Ragsta are two names I am familiar with. Jehu has already won a nursery so should go well dropped into this grade but Ragsta looks a decent price and I am chancing her tonight. She was formerly with Richard Hannon but was bought out of a seller by the current trainer when second at Leicester and made her debut for Dwyer at that track last time out when well held in a nursery. That has prompted this drop into lower company, but based upon her Leicester form she is overpriced as she was only one and a quarter lengths off Aegean Destiny that day and gave away five pounds. Tonight they run off levels, yet she is priced at 28/1 as opposed to 4/1 about the Hannon rival. She is draw in stall 4 which isn't ideal, but she has been known to race in mid-division previously so who knows. 28/1 SJ, 2.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

8.30 Kempton Godolphin have a terrific strike rate here and their Musleh looked one to keep on the right side of when romping home over course and distance in August. He finished mid-field in the London Mile here when last seen but had an awful draw, and dropped into a small field there is every chance he could dominate these under Frankie off a mark only 3 lbs higher than his latest win. 4/1 VC Bet, 5 pt win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Perfect Act stayed on for third in the 9.00 at Kempton. The other two were unplaced but little damage was done as both were minimum EW bets. A couple of early ones for Ascot tomorrow.... 2.00 Ascot I think Tryst will be popular here as he shapes as if this trip will suit and is open to plenty of improvement from a top yard whilst Rainbow Peak too has strong connections and could feasibly improve to take this with a handy age allowance. He is another that will appreciate a step up in trip and the form of his maiden win at Kempton has been boosted by Montashem and Invisible Man this season to suggest his rating of 90 is fair. However, it is one dropping back in trip that interests me at the prices. Jabal Tariq travelled well for a long way at Ffos Las last time out before fading and after that run he went into my notebook as one to keep an eye out for back over 1m 2f. He ran over 1m 4f that day and was brought to challenge Petrovsky 2f out when looking to have every chance, but he faded in the final couple of furlongs whilst the winner, who had been able to dictate at a steady tempo under Adrian Nicholls, pressed on to seal the win. If Jabal Tariq were to win this then it would be quite an upset as he is more exposed than the market leaders, but Michael Hills is riding well for this yard at present, posting figures of 2-7 in the last week, and a return to front running tactics would give him a slight chance here. 16/1 Stan James, 2.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 2.35 Ascot Sir Michael Stoute looks to have another brilliant chance here with Enact who was only narrowly beaten at Sandown last time out and for whom the drop back in trip will pose no problems whatsoever. He may even land a double across the first two races on the card but it is Macdillon that will be carrying my money. Stuart Kittow holds this one in high regard and booked Frankie Dettori for his ride in the Reg Griffin Memorial Trophy at York in June. His tenth placed finish in that field of twenty was disappointing but he has bounced back since under a different rider with a staying on fourth over five furlongs at Sandown, when behind the useful Blue Jack, and he may be ready to win again soon now back over six furlongs. He is reunited with Fergus Sweeney, under whom he won a Sandown maiden last June, and after only five runs the Acclamation gelding could have plenty more to offer in sprint handicaps off this mark of 92 as his Newmarket second off just 4 lbs lower (when behind Shamwari Lodge and infront of Swiss Diva) reads well with the pair finishing either side of him both winning valuable races since. 11/1 Paddypower, 7.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 3.10 Ascot Shamandar is understandably favourite here and she sets the standard based upon her second to Monsieur Chevalier and place and win in listed company since. However, I am relucatant to back her at 10/11 here in what is a 27-runner sprint as some of these could show marked improvement upon their last time out form. All of these rivals would have to run to a mark of over 100 to beat the favourite, but with the Haggas filly dominating the market, getting an each-way outsider into the frame at a price beats the odds for the favourite winning anyway and is not out of the question. Sylvester Kirk boasts a 25 % strike rate with his juveniles this season (4-16, LSP +£18) whilst Martin Dywer has also shown an ability to get a tune out of them with a 20 % strike rate (4-20, LSP +£4) soEllmollell was my first port of call with her being 1000/1 on the exchanges. She has shown very little in three starts so far though and she probably needs to find over three stone of improvement - nearly double her own rating - to win this. At the end of the day a race like this is a bit of a lottery, but I am looking for one as unexposed as possible as some of the runners have have run plenty of times and shown they definately lack the class to be involved at the finish. One that may have more to offer is One Cool Poppy. She showed good early speed on her debut in a Salisbury maiden and it was an encouraging debut. Based on what she has shown to date it would be a stiff ask for her to win this but she is drawn on the rail so could use that good early speed to her advantage and put herself in with claims of a place and after only one start improvement is entirely feasible. Both trainer Harry Dunlop and jockey Luke Morris have been profitable in 2 yo races this term. Admittedly, the Dunlop profit figure is skewed by a 40/1 winner in a Leicester nursery, but at least big priced winners are not unheard of for the yard and she does make some appeal on breeding as a One Cool Cat (Group 1 winner over 6f at two) filly out of a Elusive Quality (high class 6-8f colt in the US) mare, also related to several winning sprinters. 66/1 VC Bet, 2.5 pts EW (4 places, 1/4 odds). 3.20 Haydock These nurseries are full of volatile characters, and Patch Patch proved just that on his last run at Musselburgh. He started the morning at 3/1 but was weak in the market and drifted come the off. He bolted up in the stalls during loading and nearly threw off jockey Makin, and once the race was underway never travelled with any real fluency. All in all, I think a line can be crossed through that form as prior to that he had shown improvement inbetween his first two runs and a mark of 70 doesn't look beyond him now. He is in the right hands and after a 45-day break could be seen in a much better light. 20/1 Bet >365, 2.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 4.20 Ascot Paquerettza has shown progressive form over a mile this season, landing handicaps off 68, 74 and then placing off 79 behind the useful Shamwari Lodge at York two starts ago. She disappointed at Thirsk when last season but that run may be ignored because of the soft ground (best form come on quicker) and given she was held up, when previously has been more effective racing prominently. She's drawn high today and could be well positioned today to bounce back to form. 16/1 Bet 365, 5 pts EW (4 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 6.50 Wolverhampton Sirenuse seems to be improving with every run. Bryan Smart's Exceed and Excel filly won a Ripon maiden on her second run back in July, and has placed three times since off this sort of mark in handicaps. She was a respectable second to Rothesay Dancer at Carlisle last time out and if handling the surface should go well from a low draw. Feelin Foxy is holding her form well and has been running well in some big field sprints. She will benefit from this drop back into a smaller field and is a previous course winner. Sirenuse 3/1 Bet 365, 10 pts Feelin Foxt 6/1 Boyle, 2.5 pts

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 4.30 Haydock Dunn'o - Phillip Robinson has an excellent record at thus track so the horse commands instand respect. He is generally consistent and only 2 lbs higher than his latest win. He has ran well at the track previously when placed and looks worth an each-way bet. 11/2 Bet 365, 5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Wake me up, when September ends.

[DM99]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

Wake me up' date=' when September ends.[/quote'] I'm in exactly the same boat. A truly devastating month-long run took all the profits (and then some) for the last three months. :cry Agonising, frustrating, disgusting. Back to the coalface for a couple of months of grinding up at my version of penny stakes. :eyes

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

I'm in exactly the same boat. A truly devastating month-long run took all the profits (and then some) for the last three months. :cry Agonising, frustrating, disgusting. Back to the coalface for a couple of months of grinding up at my version of penny stakes. :eyes

Yep, same story here, fingers crossed things change for you asap. :hope 3.00 Haydock (Sat) Everymanforhimself was drawn high in the Gold Cup at Ayr, latest, and with the benefit of hindsight we know that wasn't the place you wanted to be during that meeting. Prior to that he had ran a number of solid races, including when second in the Portland off 2 lb lower, so he looks handicapped to have a chance. He is a course and distance winner and should be there or therabouts. 9/1 Bet 365, 10 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds) 3.35 Haydock (Sat) Oldjoesaid is dropping down the handicap and with another 1 lb knocked off his rating since the Portland, Henry Candy's charge could go close here as he is now 6 lbs lower than when winning at Newbury last season. He has done all his winning over this trip, is a course and distance winner, and has won on both firm and soft ground. 7/1 Bet 365, 7.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 3.50 Chester (Sat) Kaolak has been in rampant mood of late and scooped a race at Goodwood when last seen. He has gone up another few pounds in the weights but the step up in trip could continue the improvement at this track, which suits his running style. 11/4 Bet 365, 20 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Sirenuse is getting well supported in the 6.50 Wolv, another 10 pts, 9/4 SJ, and 2.5 pts Feelin Foxy 11/2 SJ.

[Trendsman]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Don't you just hate false Gambles Fintron. this was backed off the boards and finishes stone last. Gambles like this need to be investigated, especially from a stable that are not showing much over the last 5 weeks

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

Don't you just hate false Gambles Fintron. this was backed off the boards and finishes stone last. Gambles like this need to be investigated' date=' especially from a stable that are not showing much over the last 5 weeks[/quote'] I gave it the kiss of death! I don't usually follow the money like that but thought it was the one to beat there. oops.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 3.40 Ascot Jim Goldie has booked Jamie Spencer to ride Punters Lounge (Middleham) syndicate horse Dhaular Dhar which is interesting as Spencer could have presumably taken his pick from a number of these with several of his regular yards all saddling up runners. As ever, I will be backing irrespective of form for that one, but Redford is the other one that interests me as he represents last years winning trainer and jockey combo and has placed form in a couple of high profile course handicaps such as the Buckingham Palace Stakes and Abu Dhabi International. He has a rail draw tomorrow which may prove useful and he is probably better than the bare result of the Gold Cup suggests at first glance as he raced on what turned out to 'bad' side of the draw whilst racing over a trip that looked sharp enough for him anyway. This return to seven furlongs, off the same mark, entitles him to go close for the inform Michael Bell. 14/1 Bet 365, 10 pts EW (5 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 5.00 Chester Rasaman - races off a winning mark of 81 and is suited to a sharp track like this. Well drawn and hard to see him being out of the frame. 4/1 Bet 365, 5 pts EW. 7.15 Kempton Doubnov - has won on the all weather when raced in france and although can only be assessed on limited uk form, has a good strike rate and won plenty of prize money in career to date. Has bit to find on ratings but jockey has decent record riding for trainer williams. 50/1 bet 365, 2.5 pt EW

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 8.15 Kempton Diamond Laura runs off a decent weight here, is well drawn to attack, and has form on polytrack previously. Evs, Skybet 15 pts win.

[Spooner]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

I'm in exactly the same boat. A truly devastating month-long run took all the profits (and then some) for the last three months. :cry Agonising, frustrating, disgusting. Back to the coalface for a couple of months of grinding up at my version of penny stakes. :eyes

I'm in the same boat as both of you, wiped out lots of profit this month, been awful and its hard to get out of, you notice the little things that perhaps on a 'good run' go your way. :hope to turn arounds for us three and anyone else in the same boat.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Aye, so annoying, fingers crossed for a revial all around tomorrow. 3.15 Ascot Art Connoisseur does not score highly in the consistency stakes but Michael Bell's colt is a genuine pattern horse on his day and has the best form in the book of these runners contesting the Diadem. At two he looked a colt of immeasurable promise, landing The Group 2 Coventry Stakes over this course and distance to complete a hat-trick on his first three runs and he also placed in Group 1 company at the Curragh (behind Mastercraftsman) in his first year of racing. He made his reappearance in a listed race at Newmarket when denied a run, but he used that as a prep run for the Golden Jubilee Stakes in June - again won over course and distance - to confirm he is a sprinter of the highest calibre. I can excuse his run in the July Cup at Newmarket as it paid to race prominently whilst he was held up, and similarly, in the Nunthorpe, the way the race panned out counted against him at York. He can have no excuses for a no show in the Sprint Cup at Haydock, latest, but perhaps the new found tactics were not to his liking as he raced more prominently than usual under Hayley Turner. With the prospect of Tamagin and/or Beckermet setting the pace here, he could return to the rear of the field and that could see him improve as he evidently goes well at this track. It is a race that the classic generation have done well in in the past few decades with the likes of Haatef (2007), Red Clubs (2006), Bianconi (1998) and Elnadim (1997) all landing the prize, and although he shoulders a 6 lb penalty as a consquence of his Group 1 win he has the ability to win a race at this level if in the right mood. 11/1 Ladbrokes, 5 pts each-way (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2.15 Curragh Sioduil continues to hold her form well. After winning a Dundalk maiden in April she has been narrowly beaten in handicaps by Fol Hollow (hd) and Santo Padre (s.h) which looks solid sprint form and last time out too she was only beaten by a narrow margin (s.h). She goes up another few pounds in the handicap but still looks to be improving and could be in with a shout for Jim Bolger. 9/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pt EW (5 places, 1/4 odds). 5.35 Curragh Silverhand stayed on well at this track last time out in what was almost a trial race for this Irish Cambridgeshire with plenty of these rivals in opposition. He is lightly raced on the flat, has won 2-3, and shapes as if this step up in trip will suit. A claiming jockey eases the weight burden and hopefully he can confirm form with Essex, who is favourite here. 11/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pts EW (5 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2.05 Ascot Chiberta King has ran two good races over course and distance now, firstly when second to Cosmic Sun (btn 1.25l) in June and then when second to Polly's Mark (btn 3l) here in August. He was stepped up in trip at Ffos Las last time out and ran well taking second again after briefly leading, but I think he may be ridden with a little more restraint today and under William Buick he can go well. Unleashed hasn't seen much racing in handicaps and although held in listed and group races this season, may be sharpened up with first time blinkers now dropped in grade. Chiberta King 4/1 SJ, 15 pt win Unleashed 14/1 Bet 365, 1 pt win 2.40 Ascot Red Rocks is a classy sort and beat Curlin in the Man O'War Stakes at Belmont last year. He is a multiple Grade 1 winner that is high class on his day. His last few runs have been disappointing but he is back with Brian Meehan now and with Martin Dwyer riding really well he could bounce back here. 10/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pts win. 5.00 Ascot Fanunalter chased home Stoic on his handicap debut at Sandown last time out and the form of that race has been boosted many times since. He probably has more to offer on what is only his third start. Espiritu ran well here earlier in the season and looks to hold claims off this mark whilst Elna Bright is well handicapped on old form but may be possibly outclassed at this level. Tartan Gunna flopped here on his last visit but has been progressive this season and may bounce back after his recent win. Fanunalter 2/1 Bet 365, 15 pts Espiritu, 9/1 SJ 2.5 pt saver Tartan Gunna, 12/1 SJ, 2.5 pt saver Elna Bright, 16/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pt saver