Fintron's Flat Thread 2009 - Final Profit +478.17 pts

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 3.30 Southwell Chatterszaha interests me at 66/1 here. Lightly raced so open to improvement and sire acted around here if its the Zaha from Ireland. Not sure if they had fibresand here back in those years (if they did, Zaha won on it) but anyway this is a poor race in which the favourite looks weak and this one has shown enough in maidens to suggest she could find a weak race off a mark of 59. 66/1 VC Bet, 2.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Ocean Legend travelled well to a point yesterday but failed to make up any ground in the straight. I took a chance on Chatterszaha at 66/1 in the sprint earlier on the same card but she failed to spring a shock and faded tamely in the final two furlongs. 3.30 Warwick Alnwick is a horse I most associate with two mile staying handicaps at Kempton but he has proven himself able to act on turf too in recent months and was only beaten by a short head by Aaim to Prosper at Newbury in July. He has since won at Kempton and is turned out under a penalty here as a result, but he may be able to get the better of doubtful stayer Just Lille and Nemo Spirit, who may prefer softer ground, who may set this up for him. A course and distance winner, he may have most to fear from Zuwaar, who has been holding his form well and was defeated by just a head off a 1 lb higher mark at Chester earlier in the season. Louis-Phillipe Beuzelin takes the ride today and his claim could ensure Ian Williams' runner remains competitive. Alnwick 7/2 Bet 365, 10 pt win Zuwaar 4/1 SJ, 10 pt win 3.40 Ayr Boy Blue won over course and distance last July and is only 1 lb higher now. He showed he is ready to go in again at some point with a decent third at Doncaster two starts ago off a 1 lb higher mark and is proven to act with cut in the ground. 15/2 Bet 365, 7.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 4.10 Ayr Red Jade is a horse I have followed many times this season and although I had torn him out of my notebook after a series of below par efforts when with Karl Burke, I feel as though he may have more to offer now in the care of Richard Fahey. He was set to run for his new trainer at York last week and was at least chanceable at a big price, but today he is only 4/1 and given he has a little to prove off the back of recent efforts I am passing over for main bet purposes. I feel he warrants a saver selection given he relishes soft ground and that he looks well handicapped based upon his battling second to Stone of Scone at Nottingham earlier in the season. My main bet in this race, however, is Timocracy. The Cape Cross gelding has shown in the past he gets this trip and is only 3 lbs higher than when scoring at Pontefract earlier in the season. He too handles cut and is open to more improvement himself, so they are my two picks in this. Red Jade 4/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pt win Timocracy 8/1 VC Bet, 5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds) 5.20 Catterick Mr Wolf may benefit from being ridden by a 7 lb claimer here as he has struggled in recent starts off 75, 74 and then 73. He was a winner off 70 at Pontefract in June so isn't obviously badly handicapped, but at his age, every pound may make a difference. He makes only his second start for John Quinn having left David Barker but despite the change of scenery it is likely his racing tactics will be the same as always. He is a course and distance winner and if allowed a soft lead may be hard to peg back. Jockey Brennan is 4-15 in the last fortnight. 12/1 Hills, 5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 5.00 Warwick This looks quite a tricky race to crack but I feel Kipchak is better than a 16/1 shot and has valid excuses for what appear poor runs on paper at first glance. I backed this one at Yarmouth when I felt Eddie Ahern sent him off a little too quickly infront. He was the sole pacesetter in the field and could have been ridden with a bit more restraint that day in my opinion. Since then he has disappointed at Lingfield, but he had to settle with a position in mid-division, which isn't ideal for him, from a wide draw. Last time out at Brighton he was well held in third, but it was a return to some sort of form nonetheless and he fared best of those that had raced up with the pace. What we do know about Kipchak is that he is suited by sharp tracks (three time winner at Lingfield), he handles firm ground and is effective over this trip, so from a low draw and with Fergus Sweeney booked, he ticks plenty of boxes for me today. Sweeney may not seem an eyecatching jockey booking to some, but for me, his front running ride on Comadoir at Lingfield was one of the rides of the season - he blitzed them on a 20/1 shot - and a similar sort of ride could be just what the doctor ordered for Conor Dore's gelding today. 16/1 VC Bet, 7.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread A disappointing couple of days really. The 3.30 race saw Nemo's Spirit and Zuwaar withdrawn, so the latter goes down as a non runner. It meant one of the known pace setters was removed from the race and Just Lille, another likely leader on paper, showed more reserved tactics upped in trip. It meant he was the one staying on at the end and my pick, Alnwick, faded, having helped set the pace throughout (happier tracking leaders). Boy Blue never seemed to be travelling at Warwick and Timocracy was another flop. Red Jade looked like he may weave through to pick up the 4.10 but failed to collar the leaders inside the final furlong and was placed only. As he was backed win only, he goes down as a loser. Kipchak ran a solid race from the front in the finale at Warwick and although didnt really look like the winner, should have won some place money given how late he was headed. Mr Wolf ended the day on pleasing note with a return to form with a good front running display at Catterick. He was neck and neck with the winner as they turned for home, Nicholls on the winner tacked over to the stands side and took the race but Mr Wolf was never gonna finish out of the frame in the main group and yields the only return of the day. Opening balance: +451.04 Ocean Legend -10 Chatterszaha -5 Alnwick -10 Zuwaar NR Boy Blue -15 Red Jade -2.5 Timocracy -10 Mr Wolf +5 (Placed 12/1 EW Adv) Kipchak -15 -62.5 Overall figures Pts staked: 3041 + 77.5 = 3118.5 Profit/loss: +451.04 -62.5 = +388.54 ROI: +12 %

[Spooner]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread I thought Kipchak was gonna nick it 2f out Fin and your write-up was pretty much spot on, unlucky.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

I thought Kipchak was gonna nick it 2f out Fin and your write-up was pretty much spot on' date=' unlucky.[/quote'] Yeah he looked to be going well 2f out but it just wasn't to be. He has dropped 5 lbs below his last winning mark if I remember correctly, so I'm hoping they can turn him out in a small field next, where he can dominate the field as he has to be regarded as well handicapped. Hopefully Sweeney will keep the ride as he rode it much better than Ahern did at Yarmouth previously. One for tomorrow..... 4.50 Lingfield This is the only race that interests me tomorrow and is a class 4 sprint on the all-weather circuit. A breakneck gallop could unfold over the 6f here with Comadoir, Whiskey Junction and Dvinsky lining up to face the starter and thus I am wanting one who will be happy to sit behind the leaders - Tagula Night could be the one. I'll have to be careful not to mix my Tagula's up here as Imprimis Tagula also lines up here for Alan Bailey, but it is Walter Swinburn's horse I prefer more. The gelding didn't show a great deal in his first two starts but ran a decent second in a Kempton maiden in November and returned from a nine month lay off to win on his handicap debut at Windsor last time out. He got the job done well that day and off what is only a 4 lb higher mark I think he is capable of further improvement. He is currently joint favourite with Comadoir, who I was on at 20/1 last time out. However, Jo Crowley's gelding will not get things as easy upfront tomorrow and off a 7 lb higher mark I think he is opposable and that it is the Swinburn runner that is the one to be on. 9/2 Bet 365, 15 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread tagula night tbp 5/4 blue sq, 30 pts Same reasoning as previously

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Tagula Night did the business today which was really pleasing and gives some funds with to fund the next few weeks. First though, I want to post up a selection for the St Leger. Ante-post - St Leger - Doncaster September 12th This was the only classic I managed to crack last season using trends so I was keen to use those same trends this time around after the success with Conduit last term. Last year the trends I identified were far from extensive, namely that the selection had to have won a Group race, was not a filly and had ran in one of two key trials - The Gordon Stakes at Goodwood or the Great Voltigeur at York. 2008 winner Conduit met all of those trends and showed Ryan Moore was wrong to turn his back on the Gordon Stakes winner by opting to ride Doctor Fremantle, but Frankie proved an able deputy and his mount ran out an impressive three length winner at an SP of 8/1. Another trend noted was that the winner tends to come from the within the first three in the betting, but of all of the trends this is the one I would be willing to compensate on, considering none of the first three in the betting this year make the key-trials trend and that Ebor second Changingoftheguard has never won a Group race. I still think Aiden O'Brien will have a big role in this race - as ever he has almost half of the field - which currently stands at eleven runners - carrying his orders and will be deploying the pacemakers with the likes of Rockhampton and Johann Zoffany left in the race at the latest forfeit stage. There is the possibility that Urban Poet and Manifest may be supplemented for the race too which would fatten up the field, but both of these would fall down from a trends point of view as they have yet to win a pattern race. With Ballydoyle likely to set a furious gallop, there is one horse that looks an obvious selection to me looking at the race from both a trends and form perspective - Father Time. Henry Cecil's Dansili colt ran a decent race under the circumstances in the Voltigeur as the winner, Monitor Closely, was given an enterprising ride from the front by Jimmy Fortune. He was able to lead from pillar to post in his own time, and the jockey said in the aftermath of the race that he was doubtful the horse would get the extra yardage in the St Leger given he was allowed to crawl that day at the Knavesmire. Whether the connections of Monitor Closely decide to supplement the Oasis Dream colt for the Doncaster show piece at a cost of £45k is the talking point surrounding the race at present, but either way, the way Father Time was running on that day suggests to me that with another two and a half furlongs on Leger Day he would have every chance of reversing the form. Trainer Henry Cecil has had this race in mind for some time for Father Time - speaking prior to the Voltigeur he said on his website "the plan since Ascot has been the St Leger........he seems to be progressing nicely both mentally and physically and is very happy in himself." Cecil's colt recorded a Group 2 success when landing the King Edward II Stakes at Ascot in JUne, incidentally a race in which Conduit was second last season, so he meets the Group winner trend and at his current price I think he is worth chancing. 12/1 VC Bet, 10 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 5.10 Newmarket Kelly Harrison rode Guto to victory for Bill Ratcliffe at Southwell yesterday and the pair team up with Bel Cantor here. The Bay Horse is well handicapped on the pick of his form as he runs off 79 here, having won off 5 lbs higher at Ripon last season. He regularly competes over this trip, finishing a half a length second to the inform Olynard at Windsor, showing that his turn wasn't far away. 12/1 Bet 365 7.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 4.15 Thirsk Saga de Tercey ran a cracker at York last week behind the smart Swinkeel and running over two miles again today should be in the mix once more. Alan Swinbank's gelding has been in good form this season and this looks an easier race than the one he contested at the Knavesmire recently. One possible danger may be Ragamuffin Man who is back with William Knight and unexposed over this trip having spent the last few months hurdling with Emma Lavelle. He has a nice pedigree (by Dalakhani and out of a Sadler's Wells mare) and could run a race at a price. Saga de Tercey 13/8 Bet 365, 15 pt win Ragamuffin Man 10/1 Bet 365 2.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2.35 thirsk Gracelightening Jockey great sr for yard, horse has prev racec exp and bred to get mile at two. 2.5 pt ew

[StuSimmy]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

2.35 thirsk Gracelightening Jockey great sr for yard, horse has prev racec exp and bred to get mile at two. 2.5 pt ew

50-1 3rd :nana:nana Brilliant mate!

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Cheers Stu. A really pleasing end to the week with maximum bet Tagula Night winning well at Lingfield yesterday at 5/1 and two races yeilding a return today. I actually took 80/1 on course for Gracelightening at Thirsk but forgot to post a price in here, so have settled the place at the SP of 50/1 instead. Opening balance: +388.54 Tagula Night +90 (WON 5/1 bog EW Adv) Tagula Night TBP +37.5 (Placed 5/4) Saga de Tercey +24.38 (WON 13/8 Adv) Ragamuffin Man +2.5 (Placed 10/1 EW Adv) Gracelightening +22.5 (Placed 50/1 SP Adv) Bel Cantor -15 *St Leger Selection - unsettled - Father Time still to run Overall figures Pts staked: 3118.5 + 100 = 3218.5 Profit/loss: +388.54 + 161.88 = +550.42 ROI: +17 %

[peteg40]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Impressive Fin:ok Keep up the good work ;)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

Impressive Fin:ok Keep up the good work ;)

Cheers. Three for tomorrow, for which prices are out, and more to follow in the morning..... 2.05 Goodwood Golden Desert has done most of his racing over seven furlongs but is a dual distance winner over this six furlong trip. Ryan Moore, top course jockey, replaces Tom Queally in the saddle and although up 3 lbs even in defeat from his last run, he has been in very consistent form of late and could go close. Rash Judgement has been a transformed animal since being gelded this season and chased home the classy High Standing over course and distance last time out. He clearly handles this track well and is open to more improvement for Stuart Kittow. Golden Desert 6/1 Bet 365, 5 pt EW (4 places, 1/4 odds) Rash Judgement 7/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pt win 3.25 Newmarket Eleven runners line up for this listed sprint over six furlongs and there looks to be plenty of pace on the cards. Ancien Regime has the class to win a race like this and won readily at Lingfield when last seen, but with Beckermet, Tamagin and Fat Boy in opposition he may be taken on for the lead and that would play into the hands of the tactically versatile Palace Moon. Hughie Morrison's gelding looked really useful when landing a competitive handicap at Doncaster on the opening weekend of the season, and it was inevitable that he would be competing in listed races or better in the aftermath. His first attempt came at Salisbury when beaten by a short head by Judd Street, and by pulling hard at Newbury, latest, he dampened his chances of gaining compensation. However, he is open to more improvement, and if he learns to settle better, could pick these off late on. Zidane is another that is likely to get the race ran to suit. James Fanshawe's gelding is seven years old now but was a last time out winner in a conditions race at Doncaster. He is a course and distance winner, has won at this level in the past, and is another that could capitalise on a strong gallop. Palace Moon, 4/1 SJ, 10 pt win Zidane 10/1 VC Bet, 2.5 pt win 3.35 Beverley Noble Storm is a course and distance winner and has been in outstanding form this season. He disappointed on his only other previous crack at a listed pot, at Sandown in June, but other than that he has been a model of consistency in handicaps and deserves another chance at a listed prize. He won a decent sprint at the Ebor meeting at York last week, beating the useful looking Rain Delayed by half a length, and would ge giving weight to all bar one of these in a handicap. Masta Plasta is joint highest rated on 105 and is a Group 3 winner. His wins are sporadic and his yard is hard to judge but both runners are drawn high and should give a good account of themselves. Noble Storm 11/4 Bet 365, 10 pt win Masta Plasta 9/2 Bet 365, 2.5 pt win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 5.05 Newmarket King Olav failed to get home over one and a half miles last time out but this drop back in trip should suit Tony Carroll's gelding who is only 2 lbs above his last winning mark. Both of his wins have come over this trip and if he is in the right mood he could run a race here. 20/1 VC Bet, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds). 3.00 Beverley Mull of Killough is unexposed over this trip and has hinted on numerous occassions that he wanted further than a mile. A winner off 80 on his handicap debut in May, he has ran two solid races when placed of 85 and 89 since. He has been raised a further 2 lbs here, but Jamie Kyne takes off 5 lbs and over this trip he could be up to defying the rise. 4/1 VC Bet, 12.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 6.50 Redcar Dancing Jest is only 2 lbs higher than when a winner at Leicester earlier in the season and although that came over further, she does also have winning form over a mile. She has a little to prove off the back of a below par effort at Folkestone last time out but was enjoying a good season prior to that so deserves another chance as a rare Redcar runner for Rae Guest. 14/1 SJ, 5 pts EW (4 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 6.10 Windsor This looks a really interesting listed race despite the small field size and Sir Michael Stoute, victorious 12 months ago with Spanish Moon, sends out Ebor fifth Warringah here. Warringah ran a tremendous race in the Ebor, getting mugged of place money and going down by only one length even though he finished back in fifth, but I feel he is too short for this today with Classic Punch likely to prevent him dictating the tempo as he would ideally like to do. Bushy Dell is making up the numbers based on official ratings, as she needs to find two stone to trouble these based on those figures, whilst Age of Reason is tough to fancy at 7/4 given his UK form and Godolphin's poor record in valuable races this term. That leaves just one - Traffic Guard from the Paul Cole yard. The five year old Bay has not won for two years when landing a conditions race at Newmarket, but he has ran in some decent races since and has often been placed by shaping as if he would benefit from a step up in trip. He is running off a good weight on 9-2 here considering he'd be giving weight away to all of these in a handicap and reunited with Martin Dwyer (1-1) he is my pick in the hope of picking them up late on. 10/3 SJ, 10 pt. 6.40 Windsor Bankable has been getting around more than Ashley Cole in recent months and after moving on from Luca Cumani's yard to Mike de Kock, only remained with the South African handler for a short time before coming back to the UK to Gary Moore. This is his first start for Moore but after winning a handicap and finishing fifth in a Group 1 over in Nad Al Sheba the five year old returns with an official rating of 115 and he is one of the better weighted runners on official ratings. This horse has often frustrated in the past with a number of seconds but he has done most of his racing over shorter so I am chancing over 1m 2f here (only had two starts over this trip and second twice). 5/1 SJ, 5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread A hectic day today but three winners were found and Bankable was close to making that four. Opening balance: +55.42 Golden Desert +37.5 (WON 6/1 EW Adv) Rash Judgement -2.5 Palace Moon +40 (WON 4/1 Adv) Zidane -2.5 Noble Storm -10 Masta Plasta -2.5 King Olav -10 Mull of Killough -25 Dancing Jest -10 Traffic Guard +33.33 (WON 10/3 Adv) Bankable +0.5 (Placed 11/2 bog EW Adv) +48.83 Overall figures Pts staked: 3218.5 + 102.5 = 3321 Profit/loss: +550.42 + 48.83 = +599.25 ROI: +18 %

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2.10 Goodwood Crystal Moments bumped into a progressive sort in Bounty Box last time out but the opposition today looks a bit more exposed and I fancy Ed Dunlop's filly to gain compensation. She was beaten by little over a length by the fairly useful Swiss Diva off 5 lbs higher earlier in the season, a few efforts in non-handicaps have brought her mark down since and she ran a respectable race off her current mark of 85 last time out to suggest it isn't beyond her. 7/2 Bet 365, 10 pt. 2.45 Goodwood Nashmiah was a hopeful entry in the 1,00 Guineas for Clive Brittain and was soundly beaten back in ninth. She has also had a run in the Nassau (when finishing tenth) and although those Group 1 races have proven beyond her, she is racing more on her level in listed company here. She is a winner in this grade, having won at York in May and was third at Sandown last time out in a listed race behind the smart Strawberrydaiquiri from the Sir Michael Stoute yard. She hit traffic trouble at Chester in July too, and so her placings may be a little better than they appeal on paper at first glance. 20/1 Paddypower, 5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 4.30 Goodwood Negotiation reversed Sandown form with The Happy Hammer when winning at Newmarket, latest, and ran on well over that mile trip to lead at the finish. With another furlong to enjoy here the Refuse To Bend gelding could continue his improvement, whilst El Libertador, third behind 100-rated Beauchamp Xerxes in a Windsor maiden recently, makes his handicap debut off 73 and has done enough in maidens to suggest that mark may not be beyond him. Negotiation 11/4 Bet 365, 7.5 pt El Libertador 25/1 Betfred, 2.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 5.50 Goodwood Spanish Bounty is more exposed than some of these but is drawn favourably and ran a respectable race over course and distance last time out when fourth to the improving Axiom. He is 5 lbs higher than his last winning mark after his latest 2 lb rise but he is a winner in the grade and seems to appreciate undulating tracks. He has not had many tries at this trip, and so a little more improvment may be forthcoming. 25/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 4.45 curr Gluteus maximus Handles soft placed in better races 2.5 pt ew

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Racing UK won't make the replay of the 2.45 at Goodwood available just yet so I havent watched the race myself, but Nashmiah won going away according to Sporting Life and there were no rule 4 deductions on the price either which was very pleasing. I thought she deserved to be less than half of those odds bearing in mind she was a dual winner in the grade and had been running against the best fillies around in several Group 1 races, and the 20/1 price was way too generous. None of the others returned anything, but Negotiation was very unlucky and hit major traffic trouble. He had to be switched but Kaolak got an easy time out in front and it was already game over even had he got a gap. Opening balance: +599.25 Crystal Moments -10 Nashmiah +125 (WON 20/1 EW Adv) Negotiation -7.5 El Libertador -5 Spanish Bounty -5 Gluteus Maximus -5 +92.5 Overall figures Pts staked: 3321 + 42.5 = 3363.5 Profit/loss: +599.25 + 92.5 = +691.75 ROI: +21 %

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 3.10 Epsom Piscean hasn't won since May but has been running in some very competitive races and his mark is edging down again. His last win came off 85 and he is only 3 lbs higher tomorrow. Paul Doe takes the ride for the first time and perhaps the jockey switch could make a difference. 8/1 Bet 365, 7.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds). 4.10 Ripon Benandonner is a course and distance winner from June earlier this season off 2 lbs lower but trainer Richard Fahey has opted to put 5 lb claimer Barry McHugh on board tomorrow so he should be competitively weighted. He was well beaten over this trip at Goodwood last time out but his previous win came out of the blue and if able to break well from stall 11 may have a chance. 20/1 Bet 365, 10 pt EW (4 places, 1/4 odds).

[Stevet1859]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Amazing stuff :notworthy You keep knocking them in Fin :clap:clap

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Cheers Steve. 5.55 Warwick Latin Scholar hails from the Alan King yard so is an interesting runner here on the flat with Frankie booked. He is only 1 lb higher than when winning at Chepstow earlier in the season and both of his wins have come over this trip. 7/1 SJ, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

4.45 Ripon Lucky Numbers ran in a decent sprint at York last time out over what was proabably a shorter than ideal trip. The winner ran in a listed race at Beverley at the weekend, the second is highly progressive and the third has been placed in listed company previously - the opposition was strong, and tougher than that which faces Paul Green's colt today. Jockey Silvestre de Sousa has a tremendous record riding for this yard and from a low draw I feel he could capitalise on the likely strong pace and go close. 10/1 SJ, 10 pts EW (4 places, 1/4 odds).

4.55 Epsom Penchesco - is only two pounds higher than when winning over a mile at Windsor last season and Pat Eddery's gelding is unexposed over this trip of one and a quarter miles today. He ran respectably at Southwell when last seen, being outpaced over a mile, and today's extra yardage could mediate some improvement. 16/1 VC Bet, 5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

5.30 Epsom Indy Driver returned to form emphatically under Hayley Turner at Leicester last time out and despite a hike in the weights, is still handicapped to have a chance on the pick of his old form off this mark of 72. 9/1 Bet >365, 2.5 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Not a bad day yesterday. Penchesco was a NR but Indy Driver won at 11/1 and Lucky Numbers placed at 12/1. The rest went down as losers. A results update will follow asap. 3.30 Ripon Granston - The best handicap on the card here and James Bethell's Granston could gain compensation for a near miss at Beverley last time out. He was involved in a real ding-dong battle with Bazergan to the line and although raised 3 lbs in the weights for that effort, is evidently in good nick. He's 5 lbs higher than when winning over course and distance earlier in the season but with Robert Winston (partner for each of last two wins) on board he is my selection. 10/1 Hills, 5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[Spooner]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Great stats fin. :clap

[Kithanga]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Hi Fin, Firstly, well done on the results this year. 20% on outlay is pretty darn good in anyone's book and a great achievement over a good period. A couple of questions if you don't mind? I've noticed that you post up most days and have quite a few selections each day. Based on the fact that your reasoning is also very solid and well researched you're either spending most of your available time with your head in a form book or you have a method of quickly assessing the races. Which is it; one; both or neither? Also, do you use any additional form publications like Timeform or Raceform Interactive or is it video research for you? Hope you don't mind the questions but I'm interested due to the fact that I struggle to get a race done properly in under an hour which means I can cover about 4-6 on a good day with maybe a selection in about half of those. I use Raceform Interactive as it allows me to narrow the fields down fairly quickly but clearly not as quickly as you do. Any help appreciated mate. p.s. I'm against you in the Ripon 3.30 with Wing Play as I think Granston and the other three pace setters will make this a race for the hold up types and with the horse and stable in fine form I'm hoping for a big run. K

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

Hi Fin, Firstly, well done on the results this year. 20% on outlay is pretty darn good in anyone's book and a great achievement over a good period. A couple of questions if you don't mind? I've noticed that you post up most days and have quite a few selections each day. Based on the fact that your reasoning is also very solid and well researched you're either spending most of your available time with your head in a form book or you have a method of quickly assessing the races. Which is it; one; both or neither? Also, do you use any additional form publications like Timeform or Raceform Interactive or is it video research for you? Hope you don't mind the questions but I'm interested due to the fact that I struggle to get a race done properly in under an hour which means I can cover about 4-6 on a good day with maybe a selection in about half of those. I use Raceform Interactive as it allows me to narrow the fields down fairly quickly but clearly not as quickly as you do. Any help appreciated mate. p.s. I'm against you in the Ripon 3.30 with Wing Play as I think Granston and the other three pace setters will make this a race for the hold up types and with the horse and stable in fine form I'm hoping for a big run. K

Hello, K, no probs with the questions at all, thanks. I don't have any form books and choose not to watch much racing (this is down to time). I would say I watch about a dozen live races a week. I used to use the Racing Post but since they started charging I have abandoned them and solely use Sporting Life for everything. I accept that there are errors in their database, but they have no analysis when you click on the profile of each horse and there are no spotlights and stuff, so I think I am able to form an opinion on a race without being influenced by others. I think this is important for me as I like to look for big priced outsiders, and don't want to be put off by a spotlight comment etc. The time taken to get through a race differs on field size. For something like the Bunbury Cup I think I spent two hours, but for a 16 runner sprint I have got to know the horses and take perhaps 15-20 minutes per race. For a field of less than ten, maybe 10 minutes per race? So of the situations you mention, it is more of a case of quick rather than prolonged study. I don't bother with replays in the main and adopt more of the "scientific" way of reading a race. I'd say 90 % of the time I get everything I need from Sporting Life just looking purely at stats - distances, class, pounds and lengths - but I do from time to time look for interesting stats (such as that of Neil callan in races over 13f+ and Silvestre de Sousa riding for Paul Green) that come into play too and I have to go to the RP for them. The reason why I have gone down this path is because I am often cramming in my studying, either during work when I shouldn't be on Racing at all, or when I am at home and perhaps should be spending time with my girlfriend, so I have looked to develop a method that enables to to chop through races quickly and still has a bit of success. If, in say, five years time or so, I was to go pro, I don't know whether I could sustain such an approach. I would have more time on my hands and inevitably watch a lot more racing, so more judgement would creep into my analysis I think, and that worries me a little, I quite like a crude approach. There was a dicussion about betting motivation before, but I am very much from the school of thought that it is best to have more than fewer bets (assuming all are properly researched). With only small number of bets luck can play a big part whereas in a larger sample there is no hiding and that luck would even itself out over a period of time. I feel that my having more bets, a punter is able to 'evolve' quicker if you like, and discover their edge sooner. This season has been one of finding the right staking plan for me I think. I was betting to level stakes at the start of the season and as the results in here show, the results were poor. But since moving to a graduated scale I think that has helped profits, as has going through a list of my old bets and working out which races I have tended to do best In. It took me a while to collect results from enough races to do this, but I have taken into account a few things from this now and hope this has focussed me a little - on particular distances and at certain grades for example. I agree there is plenty of pace on in the 3.30, good luck with Wing Play. Any more questions, feel free to ask. By the way, how have you found handicaps in the last few months since we last spoke? Have your results improved anything near the non-handicaps you were doing well in before?

[Kithanga]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

By the way, how have you found handicaps in the last few months since we last spoke? Have your results improved anything near the non-handicaps you were doing well in before?

A little improvement mate but nothing significant profit wise, just up slightly on the season. I noticed from my results that earlier years were profitable, but later years not so I've had a look into that as it may be something to do with them being framed differently now than they were in the 90's. All this competitive racing lark, does my head in. Give me an uncompetitive looking group race any day! My last 8 have all lost though so still plenty to learn and must be due a winner soon! Fantastic year in the non handicaps though particularly at Goodwood and I'm 10 winners from 26 bets over the season and a level stake profit of 42.75 pts and they again account for the majority of the cash profit. You can see my problem though as I'll only have about 30-40 bets in those types of races in a typical season. The decent stakes go on those so it's not like I'm suffering but it's frustrating that I can't get anywhere near this accuracy in the hcp's as they account for most of my bets. Keep winning! K

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

A little improvement mate but nothing significant profit wise, just up slightly on the season. I noticed from my results that earlier years were profitable, but later years not so I've had a look into that as it may be something to do with them being framed differently now than they were in the 90's. All this competitive racing lark, does my head in. Give me an uncompetitive looking group race any day! My last 8 have all lost though so still plenty to learn and must be due a winner soon! Fantastic year in the non handicaps though particularly at Goodwood and I'm 10 winners from 26 bets over the season and a level stake profit of 42.75 pts and they again account for the majority of the cash profit. You can see my problem though as I'll only have about 30-40 bets in those types of races in a typical season. The decent stakes go on those so it's not like I'm suffering but it's frustrating that I can't get anywhere near this accuracy in the hcp's as they account for most of my bets. Keep winning! K

That is a nice amount of profit indeed, good work. One bet for tomorrow 8.20 Kempton The classiest race on the card is this one mile handicap and I think Respite could run well from a good, high draw. William Haggas' filly ran on well over seven furlongs last time hinting that this step up in trip would suit, whilst the jockey booking of Richard Hills is a huge plus bearing in mind he has a 30 % strike rate (LSP of 34.40) in the last five seasons for the yard. Roar of Applause is another one I fancy. Brian Meehan's gelding has only had two runs on polytrack, both here, but won a nursery and was a respectable second on the other try behind the useful Musleh from the Godolphin yard two starts ago. The jockey booking for this one is also very appealing, bearing in mind Eddie Ahern's 20 % strike rate (LSP 25.25) for Meehan in the last five seasons. Respite 7/1 Bet 365, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds) Roar of Applause 8/1 Paddypower, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds)

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Results Update to end of August.... It was a really pleasing month and although not as profitable as July, the target ROI was met (doubled in fact). The highlight of the month was Nunthorpe winner Borderlescott, although Sesenta winning the Ebor and Nashmiah winning a Goodwood race at the weekend were also memorable wins. Opening balance: +691.75 Piscean -15 Benandonner -20 Latin Scholar -10 Lucky Numbers +20 (Placed 12/1 bog EW Adv) Penchesco NR Indy Driver +33 (WON 11/1 EW Adv) +8 Overall figures Pts staked: 3363.5 + 70 = 3433.5 Profit/loss: +691.75 + 8 = 699.75 ROI: +20 %