Fintron's Flat Thread 2009 - Final Profit +478.17 pts

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 4.00 Epsom Only a small field go to post here but we should get the race run at a proper pace and Zowington could be involved at the finish. Stuart Williams' seven year old has been in good form under William Carson and was beaten by just a head at Newmarket two runs ago before going down by just half a length at Newmarket off 1 lb lower last time out. He is a course winner, four time winner over the trip, and is my main bet. Filligree is co-top-weight and will find this easier than some of the class 2 handicaps she has contested in recent runs. She was a length off Zowington at Folkestone in June and a 6 lb swing in the weights gives her a chance of reversing the form. Rocker is another course winner, is only 4 lbs higher than when winning here in July, and will be finishing fast. Zowington 7/2 Bet 365, 15 pts Filligree 6/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pts Rocker 7/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pts

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 8.50 Kempton Green Lagonda should be well positioned if this race becomes a tactical affair and David Evans has booked Paul Doe, who gets on well with the horse, to take over from his son Richard. For me that is a plus and although the gelding is 5 lbs higher than when winning at Brighton last month, his likely prominent racing position could be worth a few pounds against the hold up types here. 6/1 SJ, 5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Results update: a quiet start to the month really. Granston was well held yesterday. Respite lost his race in the stalls tonight at Kempton, Roar of Applause was well positioned but poor in the same race. Green lagonda needlessly got involved in a battle for the lead at Kempton and unsurprisingly faded as a result. Opening balance: +699.75 Granston -10 Respite -10 Roar of Applause -10 Green Lagonda -10 P/L this month: -40 Overall figures Pts staked: 3433.5 + 40 = 3473.5 Profit/loss: 699.75 - 40 = +659.75 ROI: +19 %

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread two of my picks are nr's in the 4.00 at epsom, so want 2.5 pt on favourite my kingdom at 15/8 with paddy. Will get race run to suit and won well lto.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 8.20 Wolverhampton The withdrawl of Soccerjackpot could have an important bearing upon the result of this handicap and, in the absense of the Clive Cox runner, I make Brae Hill my bet. Michael Bell's gelding won off 87 at Chester in June and although 7th of 12 last time out in a Goodwood handicap, was up against some useful types - the likes of Shamwari Lodge and Enact - which have come out of that race and won since. He is a winner over this specialist trip and although he must prove he handles the surface, that is the only negative I see against him here as he should be able to cross over from his wide draw providing he breaks on terms. 12/1 Sporting Bet, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 3.50 Lingfield Street Power has been in great form of late and bids for the four-timer tomorrow. Jeremy Gask's gelding won over course and distance in February and should get the race run to suit here. He must defy an 8 lb hike in the weights but won comfortably last time and may still be ahead of the handicapper. Viking Spirit is back down to a decent mark and showed signs of a revival at Ripon recently. He has a number of placed bits of form to his name on polytrack, so he is my saver, along with Dark Mischief, who won a hot looking three year olds race at Newmarket on his comeback run this season and takes a drop in class by lining up here. Street Power 5/2 Bet 365, 20 pts win Viking Spirit 10/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pt Dark Mischief 12/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pt 4.50 Lingfield Sir Michael Stoute has a good strike rate at this track (24-114) so his Almuktahem could go well at a price. Visored for the first time when winning a maiden here in July, he never settled when last seen at Chester, when also poorly drawn. Given he acts at the track, on the surface and is unexposed over the trip, further improvement could be forthcoming from the Green Desert colt. 9/1 Bet 365, 7.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/5 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Apologies for the keenness, but I have little time to post in next few days... 1.55 Haydock (Saturday) This looks a superb sprint handicap and it could be run at a furious pace, which would set this up for Blue Jack. There looks to be pace all across the track and William Muir's gelding, who has been in fine form this season, could capitalise. He is up 6 lbs from his last time out win at Sandown but won well, has been progressive this term, and may have more left in the tank. 7/1 Betfred, 15 pts EW (4 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2.55 Haydock (Saturday) Yes Mr President was placed behind the progressive Whispering Gallery at York last time out when dropped back in trip. Prior to that he had failed to see out the full two miles at Ascot when headed by Aaim to Prosper, and it could be that this return to 1m 6f sends him back over his optimum trip. He looks competitively handicapped on the pick of his best efforts and won over this trip at Goodwood in June. 10/1 Betfred, 5 pts EW (4 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 3.30 Haydock (Saturday) J J The Jet Plane has now moved on from Mike de Kock and is with Richard Hannon, and although he has perhaps underperformed in the UK to date, his new yard may bring about further improvement. His only win on these shores came in a listed race at Windsor but he was a credible third behind Fleeting Spirit over this trip at Newmarket in July, and I think the way this race may be run on Saturday may work in favour of JJ The Jet Plane, to give him hope of reversing the form. 16/1 SJ, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 4.00 catt Mandalay king is likely to get a pace to chase, has course winning form and won a decent enough race at york recently. 10s Paddy, 5 pts EW 5.20 ling Kansai spirit has shown promise in maidens and as a son of sinndar ahould improve for the step up in trip, as has brett vale, engaged earlier on the card. 12s pp 5 pts EW

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 8.20 kemp Buddy holly will appreciate the drop back in trip and could burn these off from a good draw. 18s bet 365, 5 pts ew. 8.50 kemp Charm school was well thought of when pprominent in the lincoln betting in march. He has failed to impress this term but this step up in trip could bring immediatw impeovement. 13/2 sj, 0 5 pts ew

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread charm school 5 pts ew

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 4.50 ling, al muktahehem, another 2.5 pt ew, 20s vc bet

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2.40 leop Wanting to take on rainbow view who i feel wants further. most of oppo seem to be grp2/grp 3 types, but Again is an exception. She has grp 1 winning form has won here and will appreciate return to slower ground compared to Ascot. 9/4 bet 365, 20 pts win 3.10 kempton Fancy footsteps has a good record over cd, has never been out the frame. Was a smart wwinner lto and won with a bit in hand. Well drawn today. 7s Paddypower, 7.5 pt ew

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2.10 Leop Poet looks first string for OB but Johann Zoffany could spring a shock if allowed an easy lead under Seamie Heffernan. Is open to improvement and hold St Leger Entry (albeit as possible pacemaker). Poet 7/4 blue sq, 5 pts win Johann Zoffany 9/1 Blue Sq, 5 pts win 2.10 Kempton Monsieur Chevalier was beaten by useful looking Showcasing at York last time out but this race looks easier and the Hannon runner could return to winning ways. 13/8 Paddy, 15 pts win. 2.40 Kempton Kirkless - Godolphin do really well at this track and this runner is the class act in the race. Shapes as if this trip will be fine and it could be this which coaxes out a bit more improvement, dropped in grade. 2/1 Paddypower, 15 pts win.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 7.50 Wolverhampton Roleplay - the field here is mainly comprised of exposed types but this Eustace filly is not one of them, stepping up in trip for her greatest stamina test she has endured so far. She has done enough over shorter to suggest this mark is within her capabilities and with Ted Durcan booked I think she could go off nearwr to 14s ish compared to her current price. 22s sj, 5 pt ew

[Stevet1859]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Fin you are a winner machine .... And Roleplay 33/1 3rd too - great stuff :clap Steve

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

Fin you are a winner machine .... And Roleplay 33/1 3rd too - great stuff :clap Steve

Thanks Steve. It has been a busy weekend and yesterday was heading for disaster until Yes Mr President rescued the day! 3.45 York Eton Rifles is open to further improvement despite a 2 lb rise in the weights and could land this decent handicap for Howard Johnson. The Pivotal gelding will appreciate this drop back in trip given the close margin of defeat over further at Newcastle last time out and could go well. I was on Sea of Leaves (at 100/1) when she was narrowly out of the frame at Ayr earlier in the season (s.h.). She showed that to be no fluke with another fine effort at Newmarket last time out when a neck second when denied a clear run. Harrison George is a course and distance winner and ran better than the bare result suggested at Goodwood recently. He is another that will appreciate this step back in trip. Silver Wind races from out of the handicap but with Simon Pearce on top that weight disadvantage is circumvented. The David Evans runner likes to lead from the front, a style that suits at this track, and was a credible fifth over CD earlier in the season. Eton Rifles 8/1 Bet 365, 10 pt EW (4 places, 1/4 odds) Sea of Leaves 12/1 Paddypower, 2.5 pt Harrison George 6/1 Bet 365, 5 pt Silver Wind 25/1 Paddypower, 2.5 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 3.10 York Two boring picks here to be honest but Charlie Tokyo loves York and won the John Smith's Cup off 92 two years ago. He picked up a handicap last time out in decent fashion, and that recent form counts for a lot at this level. For Richard Fahey, he should go well, although if Court Masterpiece can run to anything like his rating, he is the one to beat on official figures. John Quinn's veteran was formerly high class and was a dual Group 1 winner in his heydey. He has been soundly beaten in listed and Group races this term and is evidently flattered by his official rating. Nevertheless, he is an above average sort for the grade and this step up in trip entitles him to step his form up a notch. Charlie Tokyo 10/3 VC Bet, 10 pt Court Masterpiece 9/4 SJ, 5 pt

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 4.50 York Misplaced Fortune is interesting with Joe Fanning booked. She has often been staying on over six furlongs to suggest this step up to seven would suit, and despite disappointing on her previous try, I remember that race from Redcar well as Kipchak dominated from the front and those in the rear could never get into the race. She was only touched off by half a length off 2 lb lower to looks weighted to have a chance. Van Bossed is going to pop up again at some point as he is ridiculously well handicapped. He is hard to predict but his running style is suited to the track and he is there to be chanced at the price. Misplaced Fortune 20/1 Bet 365, 5 pts EW (4 places, 1/4 odds) Van Bossed 25/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pts EW (4 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Another 5 pts EW Misplaced Fortune, 20/1 Bet 365.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Results Update.... Opening balance from last update: +659.75 The profitable bets since the last update have been, Al Muktahem +30 (Placed 20/1 EW bog Adv) Yes Mr President +62.5 (WON 10/1 EW Adv) Charm School +39 (WON 13/2 EW Adv) Poet +3.75 (WON 7/4 Adv) Kirklees +30 (2/1 Adv) Roleplay +24.7 (Placed 33/1 EW bog Adv, 10p R4) Eton Rifles +10 (Placed 8/1 EW Adv) Profit/loss by day..... Thursday: Pts Staked 15 Profit/loss: -15 Friday: Pts staked: 85 Profit/loss: +14 Saturday: Pts staked: 135 Profit/loss: +30.95 Sunday: Pts staked: 70 Profit/loss: -40 Overall figures Pts staked: 3473.5 + 305 = 3778.5 Profit/loss: +659.75 - 10.05 = +649.7 ROI: +17 %

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Three picks for today. 3.50 Folkestone Magical Speedfit - is likely to get the race run to suit here and has dropped to an attractive mark. Victorious off 70 at Brighton in April, the chestnut gelding has slipped 1 lb below that now, even though he hasn't always had the race run to suit in recent starts. Keiron Fallon has been booked and I think this is a good opportunity for the former champ to double his tally for the season. 4/1 VC bet, 20 pts win. 4.20 Folkestone Ordoney has been aimed at the Cambridgeshire and if Luca Cumani's runner is likely to fulfill that entry then he has a bit of improving to do, as he is rated a mere 77 here. That may not be such a bad thing though, as the Intikhab colt has only had the three starts to date, and is open to plenty of improvement. His two runs in maidens came over insufficient trips and it was little surprise to see him stepped up in trip for his handicap debut at Sandown recently. Although he was beaten into third, he wasn't disgraced at all. This race could be a stepping stone ahead of a future entry in a class 2 handicap at Newbury, and should he take both of those races, he may well line up at Newmarket later in the season. 2/1 Bet 365, 30 pts win. 4.40 Bath Orange Pip is starting to look well handicapped, having seen her mark slashed 3 lbs from her last run at Newmarket, when pulling hard and trailing home last of seven. She showed some useful form last season, landing a Windsor handicap off a mark of 70, and being lumbered with a 10 lbs rise thereafter. She actually carried that weight well at Kempton in May, having had the benefit of a pipeopener at Windsor a week earlier, and she bumped into some decent types in the races that followed. For example, at Sandown on the 5th of June she was fifth behind Blue Jack, Canadian Danehill and Esteem Machine, amongst others. Blue Jack has won three times since and established himself at class 2 level, Canadian Danehill has won twice since at class 3 level and Esteem Machine too has won at class 3 level since too. Orange Pip lines up in a class 5 event for the first time this season here, and if learning to settle a bit better on this return from a month off, then has the class to run a race in this lower grade. 11/1 SJ, 5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds).

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Not a bad day today. Kieren Fallon nearly managed a double with a pair of cracking rides at Folkestone. Unfortunately Magical Speedfit just couldn't get to the favourite in the 3.50 but compensation was gained in the 4.20 when Ordoney (2/1) got up under a battling finish to fend off Mick's Dancer. Orange Pip went off a little too fast and faded tamely at Bath. 5.30 Goodwood Tuxedo - is probably open to a bit more improvement than some of these. Most of his wins have come on the polytrack at Kempton but he did win at Yarmouth in July off 5 lbs lower and wasn't disgraced under a penalty last time out under a 5 lb claimer. Will benefit from the stronger handling from Daryll Holland tomorrow; jockey is 3-9 for the yard this year, with LSP of +12.00. Satwa Laird is another that may have more to offer. The Johannesburg colt has been competing in some decent handicaps this term and dropped down to this level for the first time when last seen. Although fourth, he perhaps didn't get the race run to suit and he may have a race such as this in him at some point. Tuxedo 10/1 Bet 365, 5 pts EW (3 places, 1/4 odds) Satwa Laird 6/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pts win

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 5.40 Lingfield Resplendent Alpha is a solid yardstick for the grade and returns to the all-weather after a failed spell on turf. His all-weather mark reflects the fact he prefers polytrack, he is a course and distance winner, handicapped to have every chance on the pick of his form, and should get this set up nicely for him. 25/1 William Hill, 10 pts EW, 3 places 1/4 odds

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2.45 Lingfield Ice Cool Lady - form of maidens reads quite well, Windsor one inparticular turned into a winner finding machine. Disappointed on handicap debut at Pontefract but grew restless in stalls and worth another chance. 18/1 SJ, 2.5 pts EW.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 4.55 Goodwood A pretty scrappy race in prospect and I was gonna duck this race completely until a bet I left unmatched at 70.0 overnight was matched for Marmooq. He's no worldbeater but may get the race run to suit and it is interesting that Liam Jones is booked for the first time. Some horses seem to go a bit stale under the same rider every week, and sometimes a new jockey can coax a bit of improvement. Interestingly, Marmooq has won when partnered with Jerry O'Dwyer, Adrian McCarthy, Ian Mongan, Graeme Gibbons and Luke Morris for the first time. Even when winning for Joe Fanning and Saleem Golam, that was only on his second run under those riders. It is true to say that some jockey's just don't seem to get the best out of him but the majority of his wins come when ridden by a fresh face so I've had a dabble for the sake of wackiness more than anything. For the sake of this thread...40/1 Bet 365, 2.5 pts EW

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

5.40 Lingfield Resplendent Alpha is a solid yardstick for the grade and returns to the all-weather after a failed spell on turf. His all-weather mark reflects the fact he prefers polytrack, he is a course and distance winner, handicapped to have every chance on the pick of his form, and should get this set up nicely for him. 25/1 William Hill, 10 pts EW, 3 places 1/4 odds

Made an error here - he isn't a 'D' winner as I said. However, the way he has been running, I doubt the step up in trip to 7f will be a problem.

[puntalara]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread

2.45 Lingfield Ice Cool Lady - form of maidens reads quite well, Windsor one inparticular turned into a winner finding machine. Disappointed on handicap debut at Pontefract but grew restless in stalls and worth another chance. 18/1 SJ, 2.5 pts EW.

WOW :nana

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread Thanks Lara. Ice Cool Lady won in the Lingfield nursery but the rest of todays picks disappointed me, especially Resplendent Alpha. I thought he'd go off around 7/1 but got that horribly wrong, he had to be switched 2f out but gave himself too much ground to make up. Murrin drifted out to 100/1 and ran well before fading inside the final few furlongs, which wasn't a great surprise at that price. Satwa Laird (saver) wasn't beaten far in the finale at Goodwood but the veteran Mujood clung on for dear life under Will Buick to deny Kieren Fallon another win. Opening balance: +649.7 Monday's Bets Magical Speedfit -20 Ordoney +60 (WON 2/1) Orange Pip -10 Pts staked: 60 P/L on day: +30 Today's Bets Tuxedo/Satwa Laird -12.5 Resplendent Alpha -20 Ice Cool Lady +43.20 (WON 18/1 EW Adv, 20p R4) Marmooq -5 Pts staked: 42.5 P/L on day: +5.7 Overall figures Pts staked: 3778.5 + 3881 Profit/loss: +649.7 + 35.7 = +685.4 ROI: +18 %