New Year's Resolution Thread

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 6:05 Meydan: Monterosso 2pts win 14/1 William Hill Monterosso won this last year in good style and this renewal looks to have been the plan ever since. Monterosso was very good for Mark Johnston yet seems to have taken his form to another level on the tapeta. This could be a case of horses for courses as Monterosso's two best performances to date have come in these World Cups, running third two years ago before going two places better last time. He faces some stiff American opposition yet they have to prove themselves on this surface and his biggest danger could come from rival Godolphin runners. However, if Monterosso can reproduce last year's run off a similar preparation, then he must surely go very close at a big price.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Grand National: What A Friend 1pt win 109/1 & 1pt place 16/1 Betfair (1234) & Balthazar King 1pt e/w 33/1 Boylesports (1/4 12345)

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:05 Haydock: Emperor Concerto 1pt win 14/1 Paddy Power

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:40 Haydock: Flaming Chalmer !pt win 12/1 Paddy Power

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:15 Haydock: Sydney Paget 1pt win 6/1 Coral

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:55 Kempton: Life And Soul 1pt win 20/1 Bet365

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:35 Musselburgh: Greeleys Love 2pts win 7/2 Ladbrokes

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:55 Doncaster: Mr Spiggott 1pt win 20/1 Ladbrokes

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 1:55 Doncaster: Mr Spiggott 1pt win 20/1 Ladbrokes Last week's write up: Mr Spiggott is another at a decent price and Richard Hughes is an eye catching booking for a small yard who had a winner this week. Mr Spiggott goes well on the surface and is only a couple of pounds higher than his last win on the heavy over this distance. That was a while ago, however he has run well in the meantime and is still lightly raced. It was a fair effort at Windsor on his penultimate start on similar going last season. Update: Richard Hughes is no longer aboard however Darren Egan has a fine record for the yard 2 from 7 improving to 2 from 4 on older horses - so a very positive booking and a handy three pounds off. 2:05 Haydock: Emperor Concerto 1pt win 14/1 Paddy Power Emperor Concerto has been well below form of late, however at this price there may just be a chance of a revival of this falling mark, at this course were he has run well before and with the first time blinkers. The going will be just about ideal. Lucy Wadham has her sting in decent form with several going close and she does not send many to Haydock. Just a chance that this relatively lightly sort could spring back to life here. 2:40 Haydock: Flaming Charmer 1pt win 12/1 Paddy Power Its interesting that Flaming Charmer steps up in trip here for this valuable prize. When Flaming Charmer won at Warwick his jockey Brendan Powell reported that he felt his mount would be better over further. He is off a mark of 116 here and the father and son combination of Colin and Joe Tizzard will be keen to take this race with their late developing sort. Flaming Charmer has the tongue tie on for the first time today and there could be a fair bit more to come from this five year old. 2:55 Kempton: Life And Soul 1pt win 20/1 Bet365 Life And Soul is eye catching for tops jumps trainer Donald McCain running on the flat after previously being with Amanda Perrett. Life And Soul had some decent form for Mrs Perrett however his two runs on the all weather were promising and there is just a chance he may go a little better on this surface and if thats correct he might pop up here at a big price. 3:15 Haydock: Sydney Paget 1pt win 6/1 Coral Sydney Paget looks to be horse that is progressing and he can continue on an upward curve here. His runs since the turn of the year have been rock solid and the form has stood up. Donald McCain has his string in good form and stable jockey Jason Maguire is in the plate. Although he drops back a little here that should not be a problem and Sydney Paget will handle the surface and looks set to go well. 3:35 Musselburgh: Greeleys Love 2pts win 7/2 Ladbrokes Greeleys Love did not get a clear run when getting off the mark at Thirsk. Watching the replay there looks as though there could be a fair bit more to come from Greeleys Love particularly stepped up another furlong here. He did not enjoy a clear passage at Thirsk and the second Dr Phibes won a maiden next time out and then went very close off 78 the time after. Greeleys Love has now joined Mark Johnston who has got off to an excellent start this season and his three year olds do well here as does Joe Fanning. Greeleys Love might be hard to beat here.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread World Cup - Monterosso is a non runner The Topham: Tartak 1pt e/w 20/1 Bet365 (1/4 1234)

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Irish Grand National: Rapidolyte De Ladalka 1pt e/w 25/1 (1/4 12345) & Away We Go 1pt win 33/1 both Boylesports

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Figures for the year 1st January to 31st March 2013 Points: Staked 125.00 Returned 95.60 Loss 29.40 ROI -23.52% Bets: Struck 105 Profitable 9 Strike rate 8.57% Cheltenham Review: Quite painful. A loss of 31.50 points there says it all. And well down before the first race was off. What can I learn. Well, probably to avoid ante post betting unless a) getting a very good price and b) pretty certain about a horse's target. Plus there are so many offers and better place terms on the day. As for next year, the trends (as Bowles has illustrated) and form at the Festival and other Cheltenham meetings has to be the starting place. And then build on that with trainer form and going. Also need more preparation drawing up a short list or not looking at so many races. There is very little dead wood - so its not easy to discount many runners. And more and more of the runners are having just one or two outings. All that said, no better in the rest of the month either !! Still Aintree coming up and the Flat kicking in....try and do a little better

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:50 Fairyhouse: Rapidolyte De Ladalka 1pt e/w 25/1 (1/4 12345) & Away We Go 1pt win 33/1 both Boylesports + Home Farm 1pt win 14/1 William Hill Rapidolyte De Ladalka looks the sort that could be up to this marathon trip. Although lightly raced he has shown the sort of determination that will be required to lift this prize. He was entered at one stage for the Eider Chase so that gives a pointer to what connections must feel about their charge. Rapidolyte De Ladalka can get a little outpaced at times but if Barry Keniry can keep working away this lightly raced eight year old will be staying on at the finish. Simon Shirley-Beavan is likely to have his best horse well primed for this. Away We Go is risky as he has not run over fences since he joined Willie Mullins. Its hard to know whether this is a long term plan. Away We Go has shown he is in decent form after a last time out hurdles win and he could run well at a big price. Home Farm looks to be a young horse on the up. He will need to show that he can stay this extra distance, however on breeding and taking in to account his shrewd trainer Arthur Moore, who won this with a similar type a couple of years back in Organisedconfusion - then there is a strong chance he will. The form of Home Farm's win here from White Star Line was done no harm after the second ran well at Cheltenham.

[Karijini]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread

4:50 Fairyhouse: Rapidolyte De Ladalka 1pt e/w 25/1 (1/4 12345) & Away We Go 1pt win 33/1 both Boylesports + Home Farm 1pt win 14/1 William Hill

So close Steve. Thought you had it there. Well done on a great effort having picked 2nd & 3rd . Better luck next time.

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks Karijini :ok yes I was getting pretty interested there between the last two. hats off to Bowles though, his stayed on a with a little more resolution. However, I got a little closer than I have lately and it probably was the plan all along for Willie Mullins with Away We Go. Its made me now go for Quiscover Fontaine for the Grand National Saturday. He looks as though he has been campaigned over shorter too with the big race in mind. The only time he has been stepped up is for the Irish and then the Grand National last year. Been mulling this one over, and after Away We Go's run - think Quiscover Fontaine is worth a go at the price. Grand National: Quiscover Fontaine 1pt e/w 50/1 Bet Victor (123456) NRNB

[bowles10]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread unlucky steve, 2nd & 3rd in that race is decent picking :) when i looked at the form of Liberty counsel i thought this cant win, but glad i stood by the trends in the end! I mustn't look at the recent form as we know its temporary!!

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:00 Aintree: Runswick Royal 1pt win 20/1 Sportingbet & Flaxen Flare 1pt win 5/1 Bet Victor

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 4:15 Aintree: Tanks For That 1pt win 20/1 Stan James & Rebel Rebellion 1pt win 7/1 Boylesports

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:30 Aintree: Wayward Prince 1pt e/w 50/1 Ladbrokes (1/5 123)

[bowles10]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread i can see the squeak for Wayward prince Steve, was close with that one and a return to form not impossible

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:00 Aintree: Runswick Royal 1pt win 20/1 Sportingbet & Flaxan Flare 1pt win 5/1 Bet Victor Runswick Royal looks to be improving and he could surprise here for his small stable. The form of his last win has been franked with the second Matthew Riley going in at Newcastle a couple of days ago with the third miles behind. A big ask but he did not run at Cheltenham and has a good pedigree which offers hope. Flaxan Flare was very impressive at Cheltenham in the Fred Winter. He looks well up to this step up in class and with Gordon Elliott in fine form a good run looks on the cards. 2:30 Aintree: Wayward Prince 1pt e/w 50/1 Ladbrokes 1/5 123) A huge price, however Wayward Prince looks overpriced. He goes well here (two from three) and for the first time in a while will get some decent ground. There are some question marks over some of those shorter in the betting too. Hilary Parrott only has a few runners under rules yet is very capable. 4:15 Aintree: Tanks For That 1pt win 20/1 Stan James & Rebel Rebellion 1pt win 7/1 Boylesports On the face of it Tanks For That is a hit and miss performer, however he is very ground dependent and he gets a decent surface today and if he can reproduce the run from the Grand Annual a couple of years ago he could go very close. A positive that Barry Geraghty keeps the faith. Rebel Rebellion looks very much a horse on the up. He won nicely at Sandown and there is every chance he could improve again. Although he won well on heavy there could be even more to come on this better surface. Paul Nicholls won this last year.

[Karijini]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread

2:00 Aintree: Runswick Royal 1pt win 20/1 Sportingbet

Almost there yet again and at another nice price too. Good luck with the rest Steve

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks Karijini...and kind encouragement...probably should have gone each way and with Tanks For That !!....oh well ....getting close 3:05 Aintree: Cue Card 2pts win 7/1 Coral Might try a couple of forecasts too excluding Sprinter Sacre !!

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:30 Aintree: Sea of Thunder 1pt win 11/1 William Hill

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:40 Aintree: Gullible Gordon 1pt win 16/1 Ladbrokes

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:30 Aintree: Sea Of Thunder 1pt win 11/1 William Hill Sea Of Thunder comes here as a fresh horse and the ground could be the key. He has been kept off course since disappointing on soft at Cheltenham in November. He can go well off a lay off so encouragement can be found there. By Old Vic he should stay this trip well and Barry Geraghty comes in for the ride which is another positive. 3:05 Aintree: Cue Card 2pts win 7/1 Coral Cue Card's win at Cheltenham was done no harm by First Lieutenant's victory on Thursday and he looks to have a real chance against Sprinter Sacre over this distance. Cue Card was staying on in the Arkle last year and with Sprinter Sacre likely to come under pressure with Flemenstar and Finian's Rainbow in opposition too, there may just be a turn up here. If there is a shock there could be a big pay off with an exacta. Cue Card / Finian's Rainbow 0.8pt Cue Card / Flemenstar 0.5pt Finian's Rainbow / Cue Card 0.2pt Flemenstar / Cue Card 0.2pt Finian's Rainbow / Flemenstar 0.1pt Flemenstar / Finian's Rainbow 0.1pt Cue Card / For Non Stop 0.1pt Total of 2pts staked on exactas. Should get a decent profit if either of top two combinations hit. A small profit on third and fourth combination. And a little more than money back if either of the other two come off. 3:40 Aintree: Tartak 1pt e/w 20/1 Bet365 (1/4 1234) & Gullible Gordon 1pt win 16/1 Ladbrokes Tartak has been dropping down the weights and last time at Cheltenham he looked to be returning to somewhere near his best. He also seems to go best on a better surface so today's going could enhance his chances. Peter Bowen has an excellent record in this race and he looks to have another live contender in the shape of Gullible Gordon He ran really well over these fences in December. A drop back in trip and better going could see him go close. 2 x 0.5pt exactas Tartak / Gullible Gordon

[bowles10]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Still not far away Steve, it will come soon i can see it! :)

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread Thanks Rob :ok 2:50 Aintree: Attaglance 1pt e/w 28/1 Stan James (1/4 123)

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 3:25 Aintree: Russian War 1pt win 12/1 Bet365 & Brave Spartacus 1pt win 33/1 Sportingbet

[Stevet1859]

Re: New Year's Resolution Thread 2:50 Aintree: Attaglance 1pt e/w 28/1 Stan James (1/4 123) Attaglance looks interesting reverting to hurdles here. He has done ok over fences but not reached the same level as over timber. Attaglance really struck form around this time of year in 2012 winning at Cheltenham and then following up here. Attaglance has adopted a prominent running style when winning and that suit this track. He usually stays on for pressure so there is a chance he will see out this trip. The decent ground and his trainer Malcolm Jefferson in decent form could see the relatively fresh Attaglace outrun his price. 3:25 Aintree: Russian War 1pt win 12/1 Bet365 & Brave Spartacus 1pt win 33/1 Sportingbet Russian War has only raced five times over fences and is rated well below his hurdle rating in this sphere. Russian War has won here off a long break in the past and comes in to this race in similar circumstances. Gordon Elliott has his string in good form and Russian War is unlikely to lack for fitness. Brave Spartacus is probably a bigger price today because of a poor run over hurdles last time out. Maybe that was just a prep run for today, as prior to that he had been progressive and there may be a chance that this front runner has not stopped improving. 4:15 Aintree: What A Friend 1pt win 109/1 & 1pt place 16/1 Betfair (1234) Balthazar King 1pt e/w 33/1 Boylesports (1/4 12345) (prices taken 29/3/13 #1652) & Quiscover Fontaine 1pt e/w 50/1 Bet Victor (123456) NRNB (price taken 1/4/13 #1665) What A Friend is very speculative and probably needs the Sir Alex hair dryer treatment in the saddling box. However, he was once classy, finishing behind Long Run when that one was at the top of his game in the Gold Cup. What A Friend then came on here and jumped pretty well before previous exertions took their toll. May be revived by the fences and has dropped down the ratings. An outside chance. Balthazar Gift has an amazing record when fresh and fortunately bypassed Cheltenham which will help his chances. Balthazar King has jumped the Cross Country course at Cheltenham well so good reason to hope he will take to these. Balthazar King also won a decent handicap at Cheltenham early in the season and with decent ground today which is also crucial to Balthazar King's chances. Things seem to be coming in to place and should go very close with some luck in running. Quiscover Fontaine has only run over marathon trips twice. Once when he was a staying on fourth in the Irish National and then last year's Grand National. He has been kept to shorter since and this looks a long term plan. The form of Quiscover Fontaine's run at Fairyhouse behind Sunnyhill Boy reads well and he is another with a decent chance with a clear round.