Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Grand national weights came out today and as some might know it was at this time last year when I struck the winner at a huge price on the exchanges. To repeat this will be extremely tough but there are a couple that catch my eye and might turn out to be too big. Admittedly a couple of these are a bit hopeful. Now already for this race I have Roll Along at a 3 figure price on the exchanges and he remains in the picture and if kept fresh, preferably with decent ground I could see him relishing the stamina demands of the race. (Note I have put RA up on sports punter at its current bookies price which is 50/1) However there are a few others that catch my eye. Abbeybraney 40/1 stanjames 5 pts e.w Wylie paid an awful lot of money to get this horse who has still yet to win a chase, a statistic that would put a lot off him winning a race like the National although that does not mean that he cannot run well . Im not certain if they will go for the GN (they missed the WGN earlier in the year) but connections used to have Bewleys Berry who ran in the GN in recent years and this might just be his replacement. What appeals about him is that firstly he shapes as a real stayer, he has ran some top races over 3m in the last two seasons and often in greulling conditions. What also appeals is some of his form which suggest he might be decently handicapped on a mark of 145. He lost only a head in a grade 1 against Notre Pere of levels, a run that reads very well especially considering what NP has done since (160 now.) His run afterwards in a grade 1 over a slightly inadequate trip when third was also good, the likes of Big Zeb only just ahead. He then moved to Johnson's yard but none of his ability seems to have been lost judging by a fine second behind possible GC wildcard Barbers Shop and even ahead of another GN fancy of mine Roll Along, when receiving some weight. I can see even further improvement myself over the GN trip, he has got a nice weight and is almost certainly in if connections want to go that route and if they did I can see him much shorter than 40/1 on the day myself. Darkness 66/1 bluesq 2.5 pts e.w Not as confident on this one but a bit of a darkhorse. A couple of years ago he was one of the best novices around. He won a grade 1 and a grade 2 and was clearly very talented if not slightly one to have the odd reservation about and ocassionally making a few jumping errors. In the RSA (a very good GN trial) he stayed on reasoanbly noticeably to be third when made too many errors to be truly competitive. After that he has had lots of injury problems and had been off the track for a while. However he came back this season and ran top race fto this season after such a long lay off. Eventually he was third in a competitive race but he plugged on that day and the form of that race was good. Possol has run well since, Mon Mome clearly has since and Darkness gets a nice pull in the weights from that one, Rambling Minster was another one in midfield that day who has won since and Darkness gets a pull with that one too. Darkness didnt run as well in the WGN which is some concern but his first run back this season showed real promise for me and suggested he still has ability in him. The handicapper has given him a bit of a chance of 143 (he was 154 rated) and he might just be worth a small chance knowing that he will probably get in the race needing 13 to come out which normally would be fine. Irish Invader 100/1 bet365 5 places 1.5 pts e.w He hasnt proven he has the stamina requirements for this race yet but also he has seldom been tried at a huge trip that often. Once in the kerry national when he was tried at an increased trip to normal he fell when still not out of that race at all and that encorages stamina wise. Indeed looking at his pedigree he could get the trip, its not impossible, his half brother has won over 3m and his sire has produced some stayers in the past and he did win over 3m in his novice hurdles days so whilst the GN would be a gamble it maybe worth a try. Mostly he has been running over trips like 2m and slightly more than that but nothing like the marathon GN trip. However in the past horses have been campaigned over shorter distances and gone into the GN with distance question marks before running fine races, KJC last year would be a recent example. Irish Invaders form has been good of late, he has won his last two races and he seems on an upward curve as confirmed by his graded win lto. The trip has to be a question mark here but at 100/1 Im prepared to have a small risk.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 I thought Abbeybraney at 40/1 looked over priced too Woody. But when I looked on Betfair they are over double that with 89/1 available. Wonder whether he will run. Air Force One is another interesting one who judging by Betfair is doubtful 40/1 bookmakers, 119/1 there. Ginge

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009

I thought Abbeybraney at 40/1 looked over priced too Woody. But when I looked on Betfair they are over double that with 89/1 available. Wonder whether he will run. Air Force One is another interesting one who judging by Betfair is doubtful 40/1 bookmakers, 119/1 there. Ginge

Well Abbeybraney's fluctuating exchange price could be due to his trainers quote, 'Abbeybraney won't go for the National this year, it's just a year too soon and I want to keep his novice status. It's a lovely weight he's got and if he has that next year I'll be pleased, but I think he is one of the best novices around over a trip and with the way the weather is, I don't want to lose his novice status.' Why enter him then? As for Irish Invader, Mullins seemed more confident, 'It looks as if Irish Invader will get in. He will have no problems at all with four miles - you can just let him fall asleep.'

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 2450pts Returned 1974.79pts P/L -475.21 Yield -19.39% Strike rate 25.77% (42/163) Last jumps day was actually a better one for me. One for tomorrow and will be SP: Chep 3.20 Presenting Copper 15 pts Presenting Copper stands out strongly here for her presuming the meeting gets the go ahead. She has actually won a few races already in her career, 6 I think and she also is in good form atm over fences or hurdles. The last two times she has been to chep. on heavy ground she has won and nicely too. Indeed her career record at this track is good, 3 wins and a couple of seconds. The last second over fences was a top run it has turned out. Finished second but that was behind the talented if not tricky to read herecomesthetruth. She gave him two pounds to be beaten well enough by 8 lengths but given the PN runner won a grade 1 afterwards and is now 150 rated, the inform Presenting Copper off 137 isnt harshly treated for her recent efforst going into tomorrows race. She goes very well on this ground and I think will be tough to beat tomorrow.

[WoodyTHFC]

[Spooner]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 :clap :clap :clap

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 2510pts Returned 2167.54pts P/L -342.46 Yield -13.64% Strike rate 26.62% (45/169) Thanks, a much better day yesterday with 3/3. Asc 1.40 Belcantista 3/1 var bog 15 pts Only run twice in this country but did run quite a lot abroad so isn’t as inexperienced as a first glance suggests. What he is though is a useful hurdler and he ahs shown that on both his hurdle starts here. On debut he beat the well thought PN runner fistral beach with the pair some way clear. Then he raced in the Ladbroke and run a mighty race especially for a horse as inexperienced in terms of racing in UK as this one was. He finished second and whilst two favs in that race ashkazar and aigle d’or didn’t run their races, the form of the front few looks very solid. Sentry Duty a good sort on his day when fresh, Numide a classy flat performer who won the greatwood and even songe who came from a good 4 year old group and boosted the form afterwards with a graded win. Belcantista was right amongst them and only up 7 pounds isn’t that harshly treated today and with a lovely racing weight at the bottom. Gow 3.10 Clarified 9/2 var bog 15 pts Very hot novice chase this one, I can see it working out well myself. Nicanor makes his chase bow and up til last week he was the only horse to beat Denman. O’Gradys’ runner has twice run well over fences. Wins Now was a good hurdler at times and he suggested lto he has races in him over fences, possibly over a bit further now. However I have gone for clarified who has had a break after a nasty fall lto when brought down unluckily having travelled like a possible winner in a race that couldn’t have worked out better in terms of the front two. Both Casey Jones and Golden Silver have since come out and won Grade 1’s which is a tremendous boost to clarified who was up there with them. Even before that he chased home FPTP admittedly in a slowly run race that may not have be ideal. He runs over 18f today and whilst in time I think he looks more a stayer who may need further, he probably will get away with it today and he should go well in a nice looking race. Hay 2.55 Tarablaze 4/5 var bog 15 pts This one was a nice well backed winner lto and could well follow up with graded success today. He looks slightly awkward at times in that he keeps a bit for himself and certainly lto he wasn’t doing much in front otherwise the winning margin would have been far greater. However he still was cosy enough and that win built on some good runs for this former point winner. He won at utt well and then produced a fine effort in a grade 2 to be second for an inexperienced horse. Today it looks a shoot out between him and Massasoit but he was a bit disappointing lto and I give preference to Hobbs’ runner. 3.25 Pennek 7/1 lad 7.5 pts e.w Very competitive race but the call for me is pennek who has run well this season so far in some hot handicaps without winning yet. Three times he has raced in races that have worked out well such as behind punchestowns, fair along and big bucks (all WH contenders now) and all of them have seen the form of their handicap wins boosted since. Pennek after that raced at leic where he was a staying on third in a three way battle at the line and he only just failed to win that day. The concern is he hasn’t won yet this season and that his mark continues to rise but he is going in the right direction himself and at leats from an e.w perspective looks a decent enough shot today. Uttox 2.50 Tidal Fury 3/1 wh bog 15 pts Backed this one its last two runs when seemingly well handicapped on old form and with conditions likely to suit yet he hasn’t done it. However going for him again with my feelings of him being well handicapped potentially remaining, certainly on old form he is and the testing ground is what he wants. The Murphy yard I do feel have picked up since Christmas and that could be significant for this one. Lto he got into a pace duel up front which basically ruined his chance and whilst there are a few front runners here, there should be a touch more restraint today. Also the smaller field I feel could suit especially as his chase best form has come in such smaller fields. Marodima keeps TF’s weight today quite low and it could finally be the day when he delivers. Winc 2.40 Ashkazar 7/2 boy bog 15 pts Going for a slight upset here with Askhazar for the inform Pipe’s to turn over Punjabi. Punjabi is a class act and at his best will be hard to beat but Im not convinced he will be at his best on this ground plus his trainer has indicated he is likely to have his main foucs as the CH and this run will bring him on for that. Ashkazar is arguably running his CH race today. If he didn’t run well here he may end up in a handicap somewhere and not the CH. Now on OR Pipe’s horse has it to find but Im not quite sure he has that much to find. Last season Ashkazar was part of what has been a vintage group of 4 year olds and he built on a decent flat career over hurdles. He won nicely here and also twice at san including the imperial cup. His second to CAJ was a fine effort especially as that one boosted that form earlier this season plus there are some thoughts that the race wasn’t made to totally suit Ashkazar in that being prominent in what turned out to be a really gruelling test for 4 year olds was difficult to sustain and Ashkazar did by far best of those up front. Also he may have not been 100% only racing a couple of days after winning the imperial cup. Of course there is a blot for Pipe’s runner in that he was very poor lto but the Pipe’s are generally in much better form now so Im half prepared to forgive that run although it is a concern. However I think he has a good chance today with the ground fine judging by bits of his flat form in france on what seemed a genuine going description. 3.10 Mendo 10/1 sj bog 7.5 pts e.w I feel this horse is much better over hurdles than fences. His record shows that because he seems unable to complete a chase race atm but when he goes over hurdles his form is much more solid. He notched up a sequence of hurdle wins no to long ago and also has run some very good races in really competitive handicaps such as the coral cup where he was good fourth and in a few graded races. He hasn’t quite done it as much this season but he didn’t run that badly when midfield at chelt on his last hurdle start where being hampered did him no favours in a race that has worked out quite well. He likes soft ground and whilst heavy is unknown I think he will handle it indeed when he won at the open meeting two years back it was arguably riding heavy that day. 4.10 Fistral beach 5/6 var 15pts Touted PN runner who won in a bumper last year and has twice been second in useful contests over hurdles. Once he bumped into belcantista who proved his undoubted ability afterwards in the Ladbroke so a defeat to him was no disgrace at all especially considering he was a bit clear of the rest. After that he bumped into midnight sail who did little afterwards himself but once again the pair were clear suggesting fistral beach may have just found one too good on the day whilst still running well. He enters handicaps today for the first time off 128 and its possible he could turn out to be a fair bit better than that and he might just prove that today.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 2630pts Returned 2348.67pts P/L -281.33 Yield -10.69% Strike rate 27.68% (49/177) Note slight reduction on TF. A few favs today. Leop 1.10 Ebadiyan 2.5 pp bog 15 pts I like Ebadiyan for his maverick trainer. A former useful horse on the flat with Oxx, he seems to be improving all the time over hurdles. A few starts back he was behind a couple of these who have not run since and need to be respected now. However Ebadiyan has run twice since and twice won nicely since, showing much improved form. Given that, he is the selection today. 1.40 Shirley Casper 6 lad 7.5 pts e.w The top one here for this competitive handicap interests me going into a handicap for the first time. Shirley Casper was a classy performer in bumpers, won a grade 2 and good enough to be placed in both the chelt. and punch. bumpers. Even over hurdles she showed initial promise, placed in a grade 3 on debut. Since then she still hasnt managed to win and questions have been raised about here will because a couple of times she has had seemingly every chance without managing to win. However back at 2m today (lto over further she appeared not to get home) and in a handicap off 117 which may turn out to be a fair mark, she is an e.w selection. 2.45 Cooldine 3 lad 15 pts Now a few may be looking at this race and thinking why I am not going for FPTP who I have already backed for the Arkle. However I personally think they are going the wrong route moving him up in trip, a fast 2m (ie. Arkle) at this stage of his career would be fine but over 2 and half miles he hasnt shown me he can get home fully and he demonstrated that for me in the ballymore last year and even in defeat to Trafford Lad earlier this season. I sort of half want him to travel like the winner and not get home from an ante post point of view. Anyway the one I have gone for here is Cooldine who has not established his form yet over fences like say a Trafford Lad but shapes a classy horse still who has a lot still to come. I liked him over hurdles last year when he ran up a real sequence and I felt he showed lots of promise with a really nice win on his chase bow. I dont know what they were doing running him over 2m lto as he needs a trip and he ran as such in that race when not disgraced when third over an inadequate trip at grade 1 level. Today he has a trip more to his liking and with Mullins in top form, he is the selection. 3.50 Neptune Collonges 1.8 pp bog 15 pts Class act of the field for me. His third in the GC last year proved his class which he had been suggesting at for a while including wins at punch. in grade 1s. Lto he was still travelling very well before an unfortunate fall and who knows what would have happened between him and ED but whatever you think of it, he was still running a perfectly fine race at the time and a similar run (if completed) may well be good enough today. For today I dont see another ED in the field. The Listener is the other class act but not really at this trip imo if they really force which stamina types of NC and NP will and Im not sure Notre Pere quite has Neptune Collognes' class as good as his improved form has been of late. The Paul Nicholls runner for me. Her 4.10 Tamadot 2.37 bet3 bog 15 pts The one I like here is Hobbs' runner Tamadot. Unlike some of these, he is unexposed as a chaser. He came into the chase scene on the back of some decent runs over hurdles including a couple behind smart types likes pettifour and herecomesthetruth and he has started what could be a promising career well. He was third on his debut when possibly the trip found him out late but he won decisively after that over todays trip and nicely. Indeed on the back of that he has been allotted a mark of 135 and that means that for todays event he is nicely treated with the way the weights have been done today.

[RussP]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Some good winners over the last 3 days:clap

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 2705pts Returned 2439.42pts P/L -265.58 Yield -9.81% Strike rate 28.57% (52/182) Yes its gone a bit better of late. Good job too because chelt. is round the corner and my record there this season has been woeful. Also positives from the weekend were the runs of Ashkazar and FPTP in terms of there chet. chances, FPTP has to go for Arkle now. Navan 2.10 Made in Taipan 4 lad 15 pts Another nice former hurdler this one, 140+ rated and he has transfered that ability to fences. Won nicely on both his first two chase starts including a victory over future grade 1 winner follow the plan who reversed the form with made in taipan afterwards in a grade 1 at leop. when MIT was not disgraced at all in fourth. Perhaps he was slightly disappointing lto behind jayo but that run came quick after a tough race at leop. and he should fitter for todays contest and with conditions in his favour, he is the selection. 3.50 Siegemaster 3 bet3 bog 15 pts Stout stayer this one who should relish the testing conditions today. Showed fair ability over hurdles including at the chelt. fest when fourth in the novice staying hurdle race. He has also shown some ability so far over fences, three starts ago he won very nicely, two starts back he was unfortunate in that his saddle slipped yet he still managed a good third behind a good sort in trafford lad. Lto he was third again in a grade 1 contest so thats not exactly a disgrace. he moves down in grade today but with conditions to suit, he should go well.

[WoodyTHFC]

[denon999]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Hi Woody I guess the amazing run you was having had to come to an end, it hurts when you see such short odd horses not performing. I reckon Ffallen put some hoodoo on you, as you were pulling away in first place.. back to the pack!!

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 2795pts Returned 2544.42pts P/L -250.58 Yield -8.96% Strike rate 28.72% (54/188) Don 1.40 Higgys Boy 2.1 pp bog 15pts A few newcomers here who may well turn out to be useful but in these conditions I go for Higgys Boy to overcome the penalty. He was a reasonable horse on the flat at around 1m to 10f ish and he seemed to take to hurdles quite well on his debut at newb where he won quite well I thought. Admittedly apart from amore mio down the field, not a lot has boosted that form but at the time I still felt it was a good win from HB and clearly his trainer did too because he was considered good enough by a yard as powerful as NH to run in a grade 2 lto. As it was he ran below par finding the surface perhaps too testing and maybe even the course which isn’t that surprising given the type of horse he was on the flat. Today on more of a galloping flatter track I think that will probably suit more as should the sounder surface. Always Bold possibly looks one of the better newcomers and he was good on the flat but that was as more of a stayer and he could get done for speed by a quicker type like HB here.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 2810pts Returned 2575.92pts P/L -234.08 Yield -8.33 % Strike rate 29.1% (55/189) Hunt 1.50 Ravello Bay 1.66 sj bog 15 pts Now there will be some who will look at a short price for a horse who hasn’t done it over hurdles yet and be put off, there will also be some seeing that this one broke a blood vessel lto and be concerned about that. However looking at this field there are the odd consistent type in there, I don’t think there quite is anything of the potential ability of this one. Now this is only potential ability because whilst in bumpers she did show ability, staying on well a couple of times including at ain where she was a bit unlucky in a race that has produced some good hurdle types, she hasn’t done it over hurdles having broke a vessel lto when fancied to beat a smartish PN horse. However clearly NH thinks she is ready to go again, the increased trip today should be to her benefit if her bumpers running style was anything to by and from her nice pedigree for whom she is a sister to the top marello. A fair bit of hype about this and Im going that she will win later. 3.25 Son of Flicka 4 spo 15 pts A fairly open race this for whom I looked at Knight’s runner for a while but going for the consistent Son of Flicka who arrives in good form into this race. This one took a while to win over hurdles and had a few seconds where he just seemed a bit one paced over shorter than todays trip. However he has got his act together and improved to manage to win two starts back over a twice subsequent winner. Then he continued his upward trend again to be second at hay ahead of a couple of these including the PN horse whose form has seemingly gone backwards of late. He plugged on fairly well that day and not for the first time which suggests that the added trip today, which is a question mark, is possibly what he may need and possibly within his range. If he gets and around here is the ideal place to get a trip, he could prove tough to beat.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 2840pts Returned 2600.92pts P/L -239.08 Yield -8.41 % Strike rate 29.31% (56/191) Wont be around at the weekend so will post some in advance later. Muss 2.35 Striking Article 2.37 bet3 bog 15 pts I have question marks about a couple of these and the selection is Striking Article. He was impressive when winning by miles fto this season over fences. Since then it hasn’t really happened but he has had things not go his way, he bumped into Tatenen and lto the combination of the trip on that ground may have been too much. He is on better ground today which should suit and enable him to get every chance to get this trip and even though he is going right handed which isn’t ideal, he has every chance. San 2.45 According to Dick 2.62 boy bog 15 pts Interesting race this and I like the highly regarded ATD. A former pointer who may need further in time, a comment which for me applies to all the big 3 at the head of the market here, but should just about get away with 2m here. On his bumper debut in this country he was impressive and struck as a horse to follow in the future. Lto he was perhaps a bit disappointing in the sense he couldn’t win ahead of a future winner who didn’t follow up after one initial win. However back in trip today slightly this highly regarded runner is the selection. 3.20 Free World 3.25 cor 15 pts A leap of faith backing this one after a poor run lto when eh folded badly but I just wonder whether that run may have been down too going too fast early on. Looking at the time of the race, it wasn’t that much slower than MM’s romp in the VC and I just think he and CB may have gone a bit too quick in taking each other on and paying the price. Its possible that FW may have had too much taken out of him with two tough runs on the trot but for me as long as he doesn’t go too quick and still gets in a nice rhythm I think he still has every chance. That form two starts back even if the second run badly since is still solid (the 3,4 probably run their races) and if he gets back to that on this track he could prosper still. Warw 1.50 Alderluck 5.5 bet3 bog 15 pts Another one who has to put a disappointing run behind him lto. He was only third lto and on reflection he probably didn’t get home in such heavy ground over an increased trip. At todays trip, he will probably find things more ideal on ground which he still likes. His win two starts back is still solid from and getting close to that form today should put him right in the mix. The fav hasn’t convinced me this season (his win was in a poor race and this trip might not be the answer) and it could come down to a battle between him and vagrant emperor.

[WoodyTHFC]

[denon999]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009

Finally back for the oen tomorrow and its my best of the month: Kem 3.10 3.10 Oedpie 19 bet3 bog 10 pts e.w (bbotm) I have to say I have had this race in mind for this one for ages. Given that Im a bit surprised BG isn’t on but maybe thats down to the rider already winning on this one. He is inconsistent and puts in some poor runs but equally when granted with conditions in his favour he can be a very good horse as he has demonstrated twice with two classy wins. His win last season at ain for example was very good where he and the subsequent winner the second, were a mile clear of what looked a competitive handicap. He has already won at the track and seemingly he is at his best on a flatter track and with preferably ground not too soft so he should have that tomorrow and with conditions in his favour he could still be a major player for this. I don’t think the handicapper has found him out yet judging by how easy his wins were and if jumps better (lto he didn’t really) he has strong place claims at least and it could be even better.

best bet of the month?? I would hate to see your worst :lol never in mate I am afraid

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 2915pts Returned 2649.67pts P/L -265.33 Yield -9.1% Strike rate 29.23% (57/195) Don 2.00 Gold Award 1.97 cent 15 pts This one comes into this race with no hurdle experience in public but generally if he follows like many of his trainers novice horses he would have been well schooled and there is no doubting his ability that he showed over bumpers in the queens colours. He won well at fake in a bumper and then followed up by beating a good PN horse called conflictofinterest who went onto boost that from by winning a historically good ayr bumper on SGN day and also showing fair ability over hurdles already. His 9^th place effort in the festival was a fair effort. Hobbs’ runner looks the danger here but if Gold Award is as good over hurdles as he promised that he could potentially be judging by his bumper days, he could be hard to beat. 3.40 Argento Luna 3 cor 15 pts Backed this lto when she was second and said this, ‘Reasonably talented mare. Showed that in bumpers at var. times including when fifth in ain. bumper during GN meet. Has also shown that she can transfer that to hurdles with a very cosy win fto over a decent if not awkward sort in gloucester. After that she ran into the good over sixty who beat perhaps a below par AL easily. However lto she looked to have returned to something like her real self. She stayed on well when possibly given too much to do to be second, front three clear and the winner boosted the form yesterday. She is raised just 3 pounds for that which seems more than fair and she seems lightly enough weighted of 116 to go close today with the increased distance looking likely to sort too.’ Similar sort of race today and whilst Im getting an impression she may not be completely straight forward, she is the selection today. Newb 2.10 According to Dick 2.87 bet3 bog 15 pts This is what I said about this one last week, ‘Interesting race this and I like the highly regarded ATD. A former pointer who may need further in time, a comment which for me applies to all the big 3 at the head of the market here, but should just about get away with 2m here. On his bumper debut in this country he was impressive and struck as a horse to follow in the future. Lto he was perhaps a bit disappointing in the sense he couldn’t win ahead of a future winner who didn’t follow up after one initial win. However back in trip today slightly this highly regarded runner is the selection.’ He goes back up in trip today but judging by the way he stormed clear last week up the hill and by the fact he is a former winning 3m pointer he shouldn’t have many problems and he could well defy the penalty here.

[Spooner]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Great tipping lately Woody. :clap

[Spooner]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009

best bet of the month?? I would hate to see your worst :lol never in mate I am afraid

Why isn't this idiot banned yet? Seems to just criticize people, tosser.

[denon999]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009

Why isn't this idiot banned yet? Seems to just criticize people' date=' tosser.[/quote'] Actually it was a joke, and it clearly read that way. It is a shame you have to result to insults to make a point. Still I dont know why I expected any less

[Spooner]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009

Actually it was a joke, and it clearly read that way. It is a shame you have to result to insults to make a point. Still I dont know why I expected any less

Hilarious. :ok You had a little pop at me in your first post on PL, Sam Thomaswas riding like a donkey and you had done your nuts. Maybe ive read you wrong though. :ok

[fintron]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 denon, what you posted may have been meant as a joke but reading comments on a message board it is not always possible to read things as they are intended and I must say I also read it as if you were having a pop at Woody, mocking his BBOTM. I believe that if you having nothing constructive to say then its best not to say anything at all. When people start their own threads then the last thing they need is people posting comments, whether in jest or not, that could be misinterpreted as having a go when they experience a loser. At the end of the day, Woody has put his neck on the line with the bet and nobody was forced to make follow it. The reasoning must have been good enough for you to follow it (if you are talking through your pocket now??). I don't want to sound like a cnut as I see you haven't been around long and we need new members on here all the time, but just to say I think what you have been posted can easily be read the wrong way. Hope to see you start your own thread and give it a go?

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 2960pts Returned 2795.47pts P/L -164.53 Yield -5.55% Strike rate 30.3% (57/195) Ryan Air at Cheltenham. Hobbs Hill NRNB 50/1 bet3 5 pts e.w Just a wild one here and as its stakes back then nothing to lose, he is available at a huge price on the exchanges too but no NRNB. He may well not go this route as he he has handicap options and he may bypass chlet altogether and its possible he maybe better in smaller fields and on flatter tracks but his RA price for me is too big, on the exchanges for example he is 400+. His novice chase form up till a crashing fall form was smart beating horse like battlecry and silverburn well who later that season showed their ability, if not so far this. Indeed he won a grade two last season. He took a crashing fall at kem and that seems to have taken time to get over. Lto showed up for a way before being eased down in what looked a much needed run. However the RA could cut up as a race and if he ran well today connections may look such a route, last year they pondered this race as a novice and if they went this way, he could look a big price for a place at least. Kel 4.10 Wendel 10/11 boy bog 15 pts Looks the classy act here. He has posted some good wins already in his short career over hurdles including lto when beating a well thought of lavelle horse. The only time he didn’t win he ran well in a tough race at asc that could still hold supreme clues. Significantly that day he was in front of alfie fits who has a lot of speed and for me is seen to better effect on sharp 2m tracks. New 2.35 Darkness 4.5 spo 15 pts One of my wild GN longshots this one. He was formally extremely talented, a few seasons back he was a grade 2 and 1 winner and looked set for a very bright career in the staying division. Since then things haven’t always worked out but he still showed that some ability remains judging by a good third fto this season after his long lay off. The form of that race has received lots of boosts from the likes of possol, mon mone, rambling minster to name a few. And darkness’ third is very encouraging therefore and suggests that 143 is not a mark that far beyond him and if he can show his novice form its certainly not as he was 150+rated. He flopped afterwards in the WGN which can happen especially if there was a case of the bounce factor but fresher now (he goes well fresh) he could still prove tough to beat. 3.10 Hobbs Hill 10/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pts e.w Highlighted some of the reasons for this one as a RA darkhorse. On his form last year which he displayed once here in a grade 2 win, he has to be massively respected here off 147. He beat horses like silverburn and battlecry last year who boosted that form last season. There are worries that since a crashing fall he hasn’t appeared much and in his comeback he didn’t do much but he wasn’t given a hard time and was needing that run seemingly. Also he hasn’t quite proven himself in a big chase field yet. However he could be nicely handicapped off 147 considering some of the ability he showed as a novice and given that for me he could be a RA darkhorse he is the pick today.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 3005pts Returned 2877.97pts P/L -127.03 Yield -4.22% Strike rate 29.29% (58/198) One for later and will be SP as Im off for Spurs' annual trip to Wembley. Hunt 2.40 El Dancer 15 pts This one disappointed on his british bow when fancied but put that right to some extent lto with a good second at san. He was behind a horse I have followed a bit this season, Ronaldo des Mottes who has solid form and he pushed him for a while and lets not forget that was given him weight due to the weight for age. The pair pulled clear of a 128 rated rival and it was a good run from both of them and one that suggested that El Dancer clearly has ability and races in him. Today could just be a good chance to get a first hurdle win especially as I have doubts about the resolution of the likely second and third favs.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 San 2.05 Keki Buki 8 cor 7.5 pts e.w I like Big Earned Fran too but Im not too sure about him at this trip at this stage of his career yet.Anyway this is what I said about this one earlier this season, ‘Impressive in one bumper win when beat calgary bay who has since proven to be a good hurdler and could be an arkle player this season. Indeed considered good enough to run in chelt. bumper and start just 16/1 for an eng. trained horse. Disappointed a bit there especially as 80/1 stablemate was good enough to be 8th so one imagines he may not have quiet performed as expected or after that. however over hurdles has made an encouraging start. Ran into diamond harry who hismelf had some nice bumper wins and was a class appart at uttox. but still keki buku ran well enough that day. Lto he got off teh mark with a comfortable enough win, another bumper formline in conflcitofinterest (probably needs it quicker) was behind. Difficult to read too much into whether 119 will prove lenient or tight at this stage on handicap bow but certainly there is no reason why he cant improve even more, ground no problem, the testing nature of the track also should suit as he shapes like a horse who may need a trip at one point.’ I still feel he is fairly handicapped and place claims at least for me in this race. 3.10 Mr Thriller 5 var 15 pts The Pipes dominate this race and this is their no.1 today seemingly and the one they have backed all week. A former listed place horse, he has been most impressive on both his starts over here. He beat the then well fancied black jacuri who has since turned out ungenuine really but he still beat him well with the pair a long way clear. Then he beat stow and ski Sunday convincingly and that form couldn’t have worked out better with stow clearly a good guide and he has won since not to mention he was second behind zaynar even less than what he was MT. Ski Sunday has also won two nice races since and Mr Thriller’s convincing win over them now looks good form. It snot easy against older horses here but he looks a classy act here and given the pipe’s record warrants major respect. Prince Taime 19 wh bog 7.5 pts e.w This is what I wrote about this one when a meeting was off he was supposed to be last time. ‘Very competitive looking handicap, could make a claim for half a dozen in this one but prince taime is lightly raced and probably a horse who there has not been the best seen of yet. PT was fairly impressive in a couple of wins last season with one notable success over the very talented ouzbeck, a good chaser and 140+ rated hurdler, a formline that suggests 126 isnt the harshest rating of all time. This season he put up a fair effort fto when behind a couple of useful sorts in khyber kim and helens vision and staying on well having been given quite a fair bit to do. Similar hold up tactics could quite work lto at asc. in a slightly unusual tactical race behind the two trail blazers although his 8th wasnt that bad a run. Significantly though he was johnson's choice that day even though the yard had the majorly gambled on eventual second. That suggests he is quite well thought of and I can also see the stiff finish suiting his hold up tactics for chances of a place at the least.’ I feel he has decent e.w claims today.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 3050pts Returned 2919.22pts P/L -130.78 Yield -4.28% Strike rate 29.35% (59/201) Have had a tough time at chelt throughout the year but hoping the festival can change fortunes somewhat. Going to do what I did last year and up my stakes during the fest. And hopefully will get some results out of it. I will also take off ante post losers or winners at end of the day. Chelt 1.30 Cousin Vinny 7/2 BET3 bog 20 pts Cousin vinny achieved an amazing feat last season. He won both bumpers and earmarked himself as a star of the future. Over hurdles he has been fairly impressive so far, fto he was a good second in a grade 1 on his first hurdle start, some feat. Then he won pretty easily after that before a mishap after the last lto when he looked all over the winner. He looks to have the greatest potential in this race imo and arguably some of the best form, officialy he is the best horse in the race. Slight concerns are whether he will take to the big field over hurdles, maybe about his inexperienced jockey and about stories all might not be well on the journey over but he looks a class act here and could be a cut above. The ground I can see being to his advantage. Copper Bleu 16/1 bet 3 bog 4 places 10 pts e.w Hobbs speaks highly of this one just like he did about Snap Tie in this last year before he was a good third. Copper Bleu came with a big price tag after efforts in ire and showed useful ability in bumpers. Initially over hurdles he didn’t look great but back on ground not too demanding ie. Effectively heavy, he has produced some good and possibly improved form. He won well at newb over a subsequent and well regarded future winner and than ran for me a top race in defeat at don when the front pair pulled clear and the classy horse he bumped into master of arts (who would be my banker for Aintree if he runs there) and gave lots of weight to him. There was little wrong in that run adn copper bleu could emerge as one of the main threats to the potentially very good cousin vinny. 2.05 Forpadydeplasterer already on ante post 20/1 var 12.5 pts e.w for the arkle. However as its my bbotm and of the fest Im going to add a bit more 7.5 pts e.w 10/1 wh bog 4 places (just in case its 4th) This horse was made for chasing, really anything he did over hurdles was always going to be a bonus and it wasnt as if he was bad over hurdles, he won a grade 1 over hurdles and ran well enough at the fest. before possibly not seeing out the 2 and a half miles fully. I have been pretty impressed with the way he has jumped so far in his career. On his first start he only just won and the form of that is very ordinary but really that race never suited him with the complete lack of any real pace. His second lto in a grade 1 was a good run. He actually ended up taking the running that day which he doesnt have to do but he travelled and jumped well for some time before just failing late on as the talented trafford lad picked him off. Im not that concerned by that late defeat and prefer to take the positives from it. That race was over 2 and a half miles and it seems to me he might just be more of a natural 2m. He never truly saw out the trip that day nor at chelt. over hurdles and certainly I dont see it as a RSA horse myself. Of course these things need to be considered with an ante post selection but connections have been reported of saying that the arkle is really like a 2 and a half mile race which imo I would agree with, certainly 2m staying types seem to be winning it of late through the likes of MWDS and TB in just the last two years. The major pace they go seems to set the race up for horses who can travel on the back of that pace and stay on and FPTP looks a type who can do that imo. Certainly giving the nature of the arkle, I would prefer them to go down that route. Whether they do that or not is not certain but connections were about to run him on boxing day in the 2m chase before a minor setback so it would seem they are thinking that way. The arkle picture itself looks open atm with tatenen just losing the other day despite getting a generous weight pull, free world has to come into calculations despite a very narrow defeat lto as would araldur who got up late to beat it and could be the staying type who would find the nature of the race suiting but may not go that route. So with a fuzzy picture im taking a chance that FPTP goes for this race and could do something at 20/1, feel it should be shorter than that if lining up on the day. As I have stated all season a strong 2m is really going to suit him and I can see as big run, great place prospects if not the win for me. 2.40 Possol 9/1 pp bog 5 places 15 pts e.w Been running fine races all season. Hinted last season with a good third in the Jewson that he needs a trip as has delivered since getting it. Won a handicap at hay that couldn’t have worked out better judging by the efforts of the likes of mon mone, darkness and rambling minster since to name a few. Then he was third at chelt in again what was a fair run before a good second lto when winning the battle for second beyond the impressive nacarat in the competitive racing post chase race. Only 2 pound higher than that and only 6 he still could improve again and although ground could be a possible problem, he did handle soft ground in his novice days as indicated by a run behind starzaan. Simon 20/1 pp bog 5 places10 pts e.w Simon should like the ground if it turns out softer tomorrow. Arguably he needs even more of a test than this but the soft ground should make this some test anyway and he is starting to get some break from the handicapper. A mark of 145 is only 2 pounds higher than the mark he easily won the racing post chase two years back. Indeed in a couple of his gn tumbles at valentines he was still going well in particular the first time and hinted a mark like this is well in his radar. As I said arguably needs more of a test and may be looking at ain too but starting to get to an appealing mark and with the possibility this turns into a gruelling test, he has to be high on calculations. 3.20 Binocular 2/1 betr 30 pts Annoyed with myself I didn’t take some of the ante post money for this at the start of the season. Felt right at the start he would win this race and today is d-day. A good horse on the flat, he has shown great ability over hurdles. I felt last season they were going the wrong route by going the supreme but he proved me wrong with a good second for a horse so inexperienced. He travelled like a dream that day and possibly being held onto longer would have won. Anyway he was outbattled by one horse but pulled clear of the rest which to me suggest accusations he didn’t get home Im not sure about. Since this season has come he won a nothing race up north before another classy won over many of these rivals at asc. The supposed chief rival CH he has now beaten two times with ease and Im not sure if the stiffer track is enough of a level playing field to turn that form around. Binocular might just be drawing Istrabraq comparisons after today. ante post Ashkazar 20/1 var for the champion hurdle 12.5 pts e.w. Could see Ashkazar's price for the ch go quite low after tomorrow. It runs in a handicap off 147 but its very conceivable for me that its at least a ch contender in which case it could take some beating tomorrow. This horse was a former aga khan horse on the flat and a good one at that, just lost to royal and regal in a listed race, decent efforts in group 2s/3s. Something with that type of level on the flat has to be respected on the hurdling scene. He started off his hurdle win with an easy win over emerald wilderness before perhaps a disappointing effort behind franchoek. However since that run he has performed very well over hurdles under different tactics when being more prominently ridden. Im not sure he has to be ridden in such a way but the tactics certainly worked when he won the competitive imperial cup and than run a mighty race at chelt., only just going down to CAJ giving two pounds as well and that is just a 7/1 shot for the ch. I think there are some legitimate claims that ashkazar could overturn that form around. A nice sort who could improve anyway, his run at chelt. was good in the sense that the nature of the race didnt necessarily sort him. He did best of the prominent runners by some way in that race, given the gruelling nature of the track that day, it was always going to be hard to make all/ride prominently for still inexperienced 4 year olds. Also the run was coming off his imperial cup win just a few days later so that has to be factored into the equation too. The yard went very close in this race last year with osana who didnt have the form going into last season that ashkazar has. I like the way he battles as well in his races, he sees out the 2m very well and that is a real advantage at chelt. especially if turns into a test. Be interesting to see how he gets going tomorrow first. Ashkazar bounced back to form last time and conditions should suit tomorrow. Good chance of a good run especially if first time blinkers bring any further improvement. 4.00 L’Ami 9/4 var bog 30 pts L’ami was a fomer good chaser who won big races in his time and ran well enough in races like the GC. He is not in that class these days but he still is a good horse and has taken to this sphere well. He was fourth on his first run but has got better and better since that run. He then came second to GC and was given a very quiet ride in the closing stages that day, suggesting perhaps he wasn’t going all for the win perhaps against his stablemate? Anyway he is a pound better off today and in the meantime has won another event and looks prepared for this unique race and should go close for me. 4.40 Quevega 3/1 cor 30 pts Quevega is a really interesting newcomer for this race. On official figures she is fairly treated here and that really is based around a really good run in a grade 1 in france when she was third but only just behind a horse as good as hurricane fly and ahead of othermix who is considered good enough to go straight for the CH today on the back of that form. Subsequently she won well enough in ire in a handicap they may just be working out quite well and could work out even better given that I see Ambombo going well in the coral cup later this week. The real danger for me would have been whiteoak but without her, mullins charge is the selection.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Get in there with Forpadydeplasterer. I have been saying all year he will win the Arkle. So pleased connections went this route.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Well done, mate :ok I thought Golden Silver had his measure on form and it probably is like that, but on another track. On this the course form is essential. :clap:clap:clap

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009

Well done, mate :ok I thought Golden Silver had his measure on form and it probably is like that, but on another track. On this the course form is essential. :clap:clap:clap

Cheers. I could see the argument with Golden silver but I still felt that the form from the ire. arkle would be overturned. For me that was Golden Silver's ideal ground and also FPTP wouldnt have been totally ready for that race after a slight setback over christmas. Also previously FPTP had beaten GS (who must have had an off day) by a distance. Actually I think FTPT would be even better if held onto longer. Today he was more prominent than perhaps I would have thought and probably got to the lead too soon but in the end it doesnt matter because the end result was his win. On a side issue it was my first Cheletenahm outright winner all season out of 29 attempts. Finally the hoodoo is broken.