WoodyTHFC Posted October 8, 2008 Share Posted October 8, 2008 Well the jump season really starts to kick into gear again now so Im going to start another thread for the whole season just like I did last year and for the current flat season. Luckliy they have all been in profit so far although last years jump season thread got a huge boost by the Grand National win (150.) Lots of good action awaits and hopefully it will be another good season :hope Exe 4.50 Quaddick Lake 5/2 tote 15 pts For my first bet Im going to exeter in what looks a decent novice race. The Hobbs runner Copper Bleu has already won a point and a bumper in Ire before another promisng effort in the aintree bumper last year so he clearly is an interesting propsect and a potential danger. However my selection Quaddick Lane also won a point and his first run last year over hurdles makes him a major player for this. He was upsides Snap Tie at the last at Chelt before falling and looked certain to give him a real race if not beat him. Thats the same Snap Tie who went onto be a classy third in the supreme at the festival on ground that wasnt completely ideal so it is form that reads so well. After that run it is true that he disappointed twice and was beaten a log way on both ocassions. However I just wonder if the break would have done him some good and perhaps more sharp now. Certainly he can go well fresh and if he can recapture that Snap Tie form it will take a good one to beat him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spooner Posted October 8, 2008 Share Posted October 8, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Good luck Woody. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
macmuck Posted October 8, 2008 Share Posted October 8, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Given we are not sure re the disappointing runs, ive prefered a small lay of the Fav. GL tho :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted October 11, 2008 Author Share Posted October 11, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 15pts Returned pts P/L -15 Yield Strike rate (0/1) Chep 1.25 Boychuk 5/1var 7.5 pts e.w Going for the minimum e.w option here. Boychuk is a horse who if he can find anything of his old form or just put together a half decent jumping round, is well handciapped imo. Having been a good hurdler, grade 2 winner he made a promisng start to his jumping career. He was only just behind a horse of turkos class and then beat the now 160 rated gungadu. Indeed in the grade 1 at kem he was second. However since then he ahs gone downhill, often scattered by jumping errors which have meant he has been finishing his races well but being left too much to do after the mistakes taking him out of the race. Last season he did struggle but the odd run still suggested ability was there, run at asc. and chelt wasnt too bad. Todays trip looks bang on what he needs now and he can go well fresher. If he could put a decent round together, some if, 130 is a very fair mark imo. 2.00 Harry Tricker 12/1 betfr 7.5 pts e.w Crack away jack adds a fascinating dimention here and squadron and five dream have some claims too. However Harry Tricker is a horse not to be passed over that lightly. true he is out of the handicap and will need a fine effort here but its not impossible. He was a good flat horse in the end, progressed nicely to 90 rated ish horse. His hurdling hasnt always been as a clean as one would have liked but he seemed to be getting it together at one point. For example the win at plumpton fourth lengths turned out to be a classy win. the horse he comfortably beat that day went onto run two crackers at chelt and aint. and is now 137 rated, harry trciker is just 125 and thats hard to believe given hsi dominance over him at plump. that day. Of course after that things didnt quite go for him at chelt. and when he fell at aint. but he will be half ready for this after a recent flat run and certainly on his form of his plump. win, he shouldnt be forgotten even if hes just out of the handicap here. 2.35 Crescent Island 7/4 var bog 15 pts Big horse this one who could develop into something nice over fences. I get the impression with this one that anything he did over hurdles was a bonus as fences was always going to be his game. It wasnt as though he showed nothing over hurdles anyway, indeed showed lots of ability and on this track. By the end of his last run he was 140 rated in fact and thats better than these lot. He has already had a chasing run in fact, he was put into a perth race that ntd often targets only to frustraingly run out. However hopefully he can put that behind him today, probably better left handed and I think he looks set for a trip like this. 3.05 Carrick Oscar 16/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Changed yards this one now and on his first run, he could still ba quiet decent. Won that day beating a good field headed by the useful mark the book who went onto win lots of hurdling races and at one stage looked a fair chaser in the making. He looked set for good things after that. however clearly he has problems and after a third behind hoh viss when without the clearest of runs in a messy race, 3m extended him too far after that and a trip to ireland was simply too competitive. This is more realistic, he can go well fresh and not without claims. Bang 4.00 Breedsbreeze 8/11 bet3 bog 15 pts A very intersting recruit to chasing. Was a top hurdler, indeed was a grade 1 winner at sand. and had a good solid handicap run behind ring the boss before that. As a result he was sent off at just 9/1 at chelt. but he was well below par that day and was beaten before the second last. however he has had a break now and clearly can go well off a break. Being from nicholls one would imagine he has been schooled well for his chasing bow and if he can show anything like his hurdles ability over fences or even better then he should be good enough here. Hex 2.15 Striking Article 8/15 var bog 15 pts As it has turned out this one is short as a lot would just desert it as a result in particualrly as it has yet jumped a fence in race. however it is one of the horses Im looking forward to seeing this season and I believe he could develop into a smart horse this season. these connections often bring a smart one out at around this time of the year, indeed already have brought out one or two nice ones already. He won two bumpers nicely and created a good impression on his hurdling bow, that meant he went off a warmish order but couldnt do the buisness at newc. in what actually turned out to be a good race. At chelt. having been up there a while, he faded but he has always struck as a galloping type who could develop further as a chaser and we will see here in a race that was won by the good hobbs hill last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted October 15, 2008 Author Share Posted October 15, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 105pts Returned 89.32pts P/L -15.68 Yield -14.93% Strike rate 42.86% (3/7) Weth 4.50 Marleybow 6/4 boy bog 15 pts Just a six runner race but an interesting debutant to the chasing scene in the Wylie colours for Johnson, a combination that has had a lot of success in recent seasons and look set to continue in their ways. Indeed the yard has already introduced some niceish prospects already this season in the likes of Drever Route, On Raglan Road, Striking Article to name a few. Marleybow is a very nicely bred horse to the jumping scene and looked a very smart horse when winning easily in a bumper on debut and that was a good bumper too, the horses behind were tropical straight (smart flat performer, second in the re routed ebor in fact) and planet of sound a nice hurdler from hobbs' yard who could be set for even better this year over fences. This one too looked nice on his hurdling bow when winning at carl. and doing so in decent enough style. Then it had some sort of problem to miss quite a while of last season before returning only to be outclassed in grade 2 events. Its had a break since then and returns today to make his chasing debut but clearly it can go well fto in a season, winning the last 2 times so that bodes well. It will be the quickest ground hes encountered so far, the trip and obviously jumping ability are also unknowns but looking at his background I dont see a real problem with the trip and I would imagine he has been schooled well enough for hsi jumping bow. Also im not quite convinced by the will of the second fav. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fintron Posted October 15, 2008 Share Posted October 15, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 good luck with this Woody :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRat Posted October 15, 2008 Share Posted October 15, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Yep, all the best Woody this season! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted October 17, 2008 Author Share Posted October 17, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 120pts Returned 89.32pts P/L -30.68 Yield -25.56% Strike rate 37.5% (3/8) Cheers for the support. Chelt 3.30 Chord 25/1 var bog 5 pts e.w Should be a good race this. Donaldson very much respected down the weights and I suppose Shore Thing who has a line with it and hasnt stopped going forward since a defeat. However Chord could be a touch big at 25/1 here. This was a half useful handicapper on the flat with stoute despite the odd quirk. He took his time to get going over hurdles but he did eventually. He finished second twice behind a useful sort in songe. Indeed songe was good enough to be fourth at the TH at the fest. The hunt. second also looks good because other horses behind include norman the great who was good enough to split binocular and crack away jack earlier and even the half decent light yield so that is solid enough formlines. After that it was very highly tried and couldnt cope. At chelt. it was up with the very strong pace in the fred winter and unsuprisingly faded and then grade 1 at aintree was always going to be asking quite a lot. On his return this year he showed up pretty well but one cant help that a slightly easier ride. he went very quick early on that day, probably too quick really and was passed by an impressive winner who reopposes today. it may not be that easy to overcome that form today, noble alan was impressive enough on that ocassion but he does get an 8 pound pull for 8 lengths and he does have an extra 5 pounds off with a claimer on board. Also its possible that even though he first run back was satisfactory enough, it may not have been at his absolute best due to his strong pace so that offers hope too to get closer to noble alan. As i say for a couple of reasons might just have been ignored a bit too much. 4.05 Ardaghey 7/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Considered Parsons Legacy for a while as he could be fairly handicaped still and also goes fairly well fresh but I can see him running on again in a horse who might just need even further today. So going for another who has a great record fresh and fto in the season and thats Ardaghey who absolutely loves this meeting, last two times he has won on it. Just looking at his record fresh throughout his whole career, he won on debut, then beat the listener after a 3 month break in the same season, didnt win fto the next season as he ran into star de mohasion but he did win fto the following season at this meet and then of course last year he did exactly the same win at the meet. So clearly not only does he go well fresh (record seems to go downhill a bit after that) but he also relishes cheltenham. His mark has dropped back to 135, one pound lower than what it was at this same time last year and history suggests another bold bid on the cards for a yard that do so well at this time of the year, just like this horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted October 18, 2008 Author Share Posted October 18, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 145pts Returned 89.32pts P/L -55.68 Yield -38.4% Strike rate 30% (3/10) Knew I should have gone with Parsons Legacy. Chelt 3.25 Private Be 9/1 betfr 7.5 pts e.w Comes from an in from stable in hobbs who had a couple of winners here yesterday. Private Be was looking a useful chasing prospect for a while. In 2007 he won a couple of races including a good race at aintr. on national day when he beat the then jewson second for that year and did it well enough despite the odd wayward tendancy which he does show from time to time. After that win, he looked to have a good handicap in him and it could very well have been this race last year, he was cruising two out before being so unluckily brought down. He looked certain to be involved in the finish which included horses like knowhere, maljimar even comply or die was well down the field that day so there was certainly enough evidence to suggest it was a good race. After that he could never get any sort of form back and possibly still felt the exertions of such an unlucky experience. However today he is back after a break and clearly he can go well fresh and he is just the one pound lower than last year. 4.35 Supreme Duke 7/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pts e.w Another Hobbs runner. This one ran on a bumper and showed enough to be second behind seven is my number. After that he has just improved since he has encountered hurdles, not much of a first run but then came third before opening his account and doing so in a good race. In fact the horse he beat that day, woolcombe folly hasnt stopped winning since (4 times) and is now rated 147, whereas supreme duke is just 120. now od course the nicholls horse has improved in the meantime but even still it is a victory that looks very very decent to me and suggests supreme duke is capable of even better as he is entitled being realtively inexperienced still. Font's a non runner so lets see how he gets on today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted October 19, 2008 Author Share Posted October 19, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 175pts Returned 113.7pts P/L -61.3 Yield -35.02% Strike rate 33.33% (4/12) Just one today. Kem 2.50 Greenbridge 2/1 var bog 15 pts Decent novice contest this one. Imsingingtheblues was a useful hurdler at times and could end up a decent chaser but I give preference to Greenbridge. Actually on hurdle rating between the two there is precious little in it but I just felt that towards the end of last season, Greenbridge really was developing into a classy horse and at a quick rate. He won two novice hurdles races in good style and the last win at this course was so impressive, won by 40 lengths. Not totally surprsingly after that, he was moved up to grade 1 level and finished midfield but that far from tells the whole story. He was travelling well at aintr. before a mistake 3 out that cost all momentum and virtually ended his challenge; so he is better than that result suggests. He has a chasing background in his family so no surprise to see him go over fences and as a scopey sort he could do well starting today at kem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted October 22, 2008 Author Share Posted October 22, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 190.5pts Returned 113.7pts P/L -76.3 Yield -40.05% Strike rate 30.76% (4/13) South 4.20 Argento Luna 10/11 var bog 15 pts Just the one jumps bet for me today and going with one from the sherwood stable. This one brings lots of bumper form to the table and unlike some of todays rivals, notably main market rival over sixty who there is a line with through one bumper performance when argento lun awas ahead of over sixty, also has a hurdles run and win to her name. It was a good win too at hunt., she won by 5 lengths that day and I like the second who gives the form a solid look to it. The second that day was gloucester who was good enough to run midfield in grade 2s and grade 3s previously and also since has run well at chelt in a race that was better than the hunt. race that argento luna won. That chelt race actually included horses with smart bumper form like cockney trucker, big eared fran. alfie flits and unfurled who give some classy flat an early hurdle form to that race too. So on the provision that argento luna was good enough to beat gloucester fto over hurdles and do it well too, i see no reason why she cant go close again today and defy the penalty particularly as her main rival is unproven over hurdles so far and wouldnt have her bumper ability either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted October 25, 2008 Author Share Posted October 25, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 205.5pts Returned 113.7pts P/L -91.3 Yield -44.42% Strike rate 28.57% (4/14) Ain 1.05 Rippling Ring 8/11 var bog 15 pts I must admit Im not that happy about the price here, odds on in a handicap is short but now and again one comes along that looks sure to be better than their current mark and this looks like one. For a start it brings classy flat form to the table including a grade 1 fourth behind jay peg, good enough to win a group 1 on dubai world cup night. Over hurdles it was so impressive on debut before running well especially for an inexperienced horse in the supreme when fifth. That form looks really strong now. The second binocular won so well afterwards at aintr. , snap tie the third beat katchit, the fourth ran well afterwards and won a big pot in ire., blue bajan won the swinton very well afterwards, tranquil sea has won since too. Looking at that one imagines that he will prove better than hisc urrent mark or certainly should have the ability to do so, plus I like the flatter track for such a classy flat act, the one to beat. Chep 1.20 Hells Bay 12/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Been whispered in circles before that is perhaps better than has shown but today could just be the day to show it. Won bumper fto before a run that offers huge encouragement for today. Three went clear including this one and whilst the second hasnt really delivered, county zen the winner did to some extent. Last three runs it didnt as it completely blew out with a breathing issue the apparent excuse but before that had a victory over the classy blue bajan and a really good third in a race as competitive as the totesport gold cup and that reads so well. Hells Bay has since flattered to deceive it has to be said, fourth but well beaten which was a good race at newb. before blowing out lto when odds on. however he has had a break now and if he returns and builds on as his first hurdle run, then he is a major player for this who shouldnt be overlooked in particular for such a big and inform yard. 2.50 Forest Pennant 11/4 var 15 pts Think this is a horse with a huge future. Indeed over a fence at some stage and it could well be a RSA horse. However atm it is a hurdler and a good and progressive one too. Managed to win twice at chep and taunt. before running very well in a competitive race at san to be fourth and then showing real class for me to win at aint. under a fine ride. Held up and at one stage a mile off the leaders, he ran on very well to claim a relatively cosy win in the end and further confirm the improvement he had shown. He is 10 pounds higher once again today but he has 5 pounds of that claimed off with the rider today and considering how Im not even sure the bottom of this one has been reached, thats not impossible to overcome at all. 4.35 Pride of Dulcote 5/4 var bog 15 pts Looks a good opportunity to finally break his duck. Has ran well so far in some good races without winning over hurdles but this could be the day.His form is solid without that win, he fell at the last when in with a strong chance a couple of starts back, then he ran into oscar bay a decentish sort who has since won since and had some early form with forest pennant. After that he ran in a muddling race at perth but one that wasnt short on quality, the top 4 were clear and all are good sorts, lodge lane the winner looks a fine chaser in the making, of course the second tazbar has won a couple of grade 2s whilst viking rebel is another nice sort with a couple of wins so overall that is good strong form and a repeat of that puts him in with a great chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted October 31, 2008 Author Share Posted October 31, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 265pts Returned 318.08pts P/L +53.08 Yield +20.03% Strike rate 33.33% (6/18) Weth 2.45 Yes Sir 2/1 sky 15 pts Pay Attention is respected after a big break and Frankie Figg dropping back in trip having made a bold effort lto over further before falling late on however Yes Sir showed a good and encouraging return to form and I think will really like the ground. He is a bit of veteran now who in the past has been effective over hurdles and fences with his bold front running style which he mainly applies. His run lto was very encouraging, despite the odd blunder, he battled onto be second in what normally is a hot race at chelt. and whilst the winner was different class on the day, the third and the fourth (bible lord and private be) give a solid feel about the form. That run aslo came at a time when he just ran third a few days earlier so it was a really brave effort. Since then he has gone up four pounds to 133 but even so that isnt massively harsh considering he was a 150+ horse at one point and whilst he isnt that good seemingly anymore, he has shown he still has some ability, should appreciate the quick ground and if he can get the better of a possible duel with frankie figg up front, then he should go close. Utt 2.00 What a Friend 11/4 var bog 15 pts Owned I believe by SAF and in a hot race here. Carruthers actually was just in front of him in a hurdle clash and boosts smart hurdle form, Pancake already has chase form and ran well last year in grade 2s so has a class edge. What a Friend could relish this trip today, earlier in his hurdle days he often stayed on strongly at the end of races including once at chelt behind aigle d'or over 2 and a half miles in a grade 2 . He could never get into the grade 1 at the fest. but after a break and reportedly having schooled well for his chase debut, like so many of nicholls', over a trip that shapes as though it will suit, I think he can go well. Down Roy 3.10 Aranleigh 85/40 vc 15 pts Interesting that McCoy comes over for a couple of rides and whilst most will think Jered is the main reason for the trip, Aranleigh also is a major factor. Indeed last year AP often came over to ride this one and on early form, I can understand why as this one showed huge promise. Aranleigh beat the huge talking horse, Mad rush in a bumper on debut and then was a classy third in the champion bumper at the festival. Over hurdles he performed at times, beat made in taipan who is a solid 140+ rated hurdler, then dead heated with woodbine willie who went onto have a clutch of good placed efforts in graded races afterwards. After that he couldnt quite make the step up himself in grade 2s but he showed enough over bumpers and hurdles to suggest he could be a ncie jumping prospect, the ground is no problem and interesting that mccoy is over to ride him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted November 1, 2008 Author Share Posted November 1, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 310pts Returned 419.33pts P/L +109.33 Yield +35.26% Strike rate 38.09% (8/21) Asc 1.05 Modicum 10/1 spo 7.5 pts e.w Leads the weights here but a bold bid very possible. He was an ok sort of hurdler who ended up 130 rated but he appears better as a chaser. Even on debut he chased home hobbs hill and that straight away was a very good run, behind cebrus libani was a fair run before a bit disappointing on soft ground after that. however when switched to a sound surface he was too good fro desert quest before a really good performance at aintr. when although he was well beaten by tidal bay and takeroc, his third place finish was very creditible indeed and is why he is on a mark of 148. Now that at first glance seems a bit steep to me but when you look through the form with hobbs hill, tidal bay etc it becomes more understandable and given how the nature of the race could suit his strong cruising speed, I think he can go quite well. 1.35 County Zen 12/1 wh 7.5 pts e.w Sentry Duty 22/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Going for two here. County Zen was a classy hurdler at the start of the last season, he beat blue bajan of levels at this course and gets an amazing pull with that one today, he also chased home imsingingtheblues on better ground so he can go well on good ground, he won on testing ground at san. with three horses pulling clear inclu. hells bay who was awesome last week. His third in a race as competitive as the tote gold cup aslo reads very well, blue bajan behind again. The minus is the poor way he finished last season but his trainer believes that is down to a breathing problem which he has been operated on and if thats the case then he has to be really feared here given how 130 looks a lenient mark for me. I have also put in sentry duty as there is a feeling around that the time to catch him is now when fresh. He won fto over hurdles and was so classy. He thrashed celestial halo who went onto win the TH and it really was a top performance and one that makes a mark of 134 seem very fair, even donaldson behind in third is a smart yardstick. True things didnt happen afterwards in the supreme and over in ire. but fresh today on good ground I think he is worth ago at a price. 2.05 Abragante 6/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Nice race. Air Force One and Roll Along bring classy novice form from last season to the race and both are feared. Roll Along in particular is a horse i am keeping an eye on for extreme trips in the future, I think the way he stayed on in the RSA suggested to me in the future he could well be a National horse and that race has such a good record for producing future National winners. He also can go well fresh but I just feel that he could be vulnerable to another horse who can go well fresh in abraganate and also that roll allong may have other priorities later on in the season. Abragante is a quirky horse but murphy gets on well with him and fto could be the time to catch him and the trainer finally now has had a winner. For example last season he was most impressive fto when winning a listed race at winc. He is 9 pounds higher today than that day and this is a better race, however given that he can go well fresh, also he is not excessively bad treated (he was 14 pounds higher for that winc win at one point and that was beyond him), also if he is a similar standard to his hurdle form he could still have the odd pound in hand and given how there looks to be a strong pace for him today, it could set up nicely for him late on although I will be watching how Roll Allong gets on too. 2.40 Mad Max 6/5 var bog 15 pts Massive horse this one, absolute beast and in time he shapes like he could well be a chaser. however for now he makes his hurdle bow having showed some ability in bumpers, winning both his starts by staying on strongly and the second of them he beat some fair types in a graded win which jsut shows the level of ability. Starts of at 2m today and possibly there is a slight question in my mind as to if he will need further in time and also whether as he is so big, will he be agile enough for hurdles or more just a chaser but he has obvious class for this particular race, leo lucky star sets a solid standard but carrying penalties make him possibly vulnerable. Be interesting to see how Mad Max gets on. 3.15 Ringaroses 13/5 spo 15 pts Niceish race this. I actually think that russian around is semi feared given that he can clearly go well fresh having beat noland on his hurdle bow and was with acambo at the last on his chase bow before both fell at the last independently. however Ringaroses could just be a serious horse for his tariner this season over fences. Won nicely in a couple of bumpers before a ncie start too to his hurdle career, won both of his first two starts and then after a big break was second when staying on strongly behind backboard. After that he was fancied for the coral cup but another setback curtailed him from that and clearly he has been a horse who has suffered in the past. however that does mean he is lightly raced and coudl still develop into a nice chaser, he comes from a decent family and it will be interesting to see how he goes on his chase bow. 3.50 Riverside Theatre 5/4 var bog 15 pts Has a penalty against some unknowns from soem powerful yards and the odd talking horse. Kangaroo Court would be one such example that I have heard the odd snippet about. However this one sets a strong standard of form and is much respected from such a powerful yard. On debut on good ground he won at kem. in race that has produced the odd nice type and then lto he was third in what always is a competive race and whilst the front pair were a fair bit clear, there isnt much shame in that given what both of those have done at the start of their hurdle career, he was a clear third on his own. Weth 3.00 Liberate 7/2 var bog 15 pts There has been a fair bit of talk from the nicholls camp of how mobasher has improved a lot this summer and he was ahead of liberate at chelt last year but I just feel that in these conditions, liberate who already is peaked for the season with a recent flat run under his belt, could be a tough nut to crack. Afterall liberate was a good juvenille and in the TH was ahead of mobasher when chasing home katchit. He was a bit in and out last year but he ran well towards the end of the year when he got conditiosn he needed, quick ground and a trip and had a nice victory on his last hurdle run at hay. and I can see him getting the better of mobasher today and going very clsoe to winning overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted November 8, 2008 Author Share Posted November 8, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 415pts Returned 674.33pts P/L +259.33 Yield +62.49% Strike rate 35.72% (10/28) Good 22/1 winner last week. Naas 1.15 Jayo 8/1 vc 7.5 pts e.w Good contest this one with the likes of wins now, made in taipan and rare bob all threats. However despite the obvious class of those ones, I just wonder if all of them may find 2m a bit sharp. All of them have some form and mainly their latest form over hurdles which is over further and it could prove that despite it being soft ground, they could be vulnerable to a speedier type in jayo. Jayo also has a good record fto each season having won on both his starts in ire over hurdles. Indeed last season jayo devolped into a very consistent handicap hurdler, admittedly not quite of the class of some of these over hurdles but good enough with wins at fair and cork and some solid efforts in big handicaps at punch and the tote gold cup. He has no problem whatsoever with soft ground and 2m today is perfect distance unlike what it is for some of these he and could be an interesting recruit to fences. Kel 12.30 Pakineo des Pictons 11/8 spo 15 pts Could develop into a clash here between the murphy horse and the johnson horse but I give preference to the former. Pakineo des Pictos already has a run over a fences and I suppose it was a bit lacklustre when actually bumping into a nice johnson type but the race showed his limitations. He found 2m too sharp really and not surprisingly is upped in trip today and given his french pedigree which has stamina to the fore front, that shouldnt be a problem at all. Also one would expect him to come on a fair bit for that first run and he is well regarded by the yard who have started slowly but the good ones, ie. naaid du misselot can still run well enough. Another factor which edges it for murphys horse here for me is that the johnosn horse, teenage idol, who just has bumper form, hasnt really seen much come from his bumper lto at ayr, normally a strong event. The winner flopped as a big fav on his hurdle bow, the second and third showed limited ability too so that encourages as well. San 1.20 Planet of Sound 11/4 var bog 15 pts Free World respected but he was a bit disappointing i thought over hurdles at the end of last season and indeed was behind planet of sound. Now it could prove fences make him but dont be surprised if fences suit planet of sound too. Planet of Sound developed into a fair hurdler last season and lto probably put up his best performance when beating calagary bay, working title and the above mentioned free world. Free World looks a bit short to me and more based on rep. and therefore it could open the event and reportedly planet of soudn has schooled quite well and could be a nice sort for his chase bow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted November 9, 2008 Author Share Posted November 9, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 460pts Returned 674.33pts P/L +214.33 Yield +46.59% Strike rate 32.25% (10/31) Nav 1.25 Jaffonnien 5/1 var bog 10 pts Could be a warmish grade 3 this. One of the most unexposed runners is jaffonnien. So far he just has one run and win in a bumper but it was a hugely impressive win and went straight into my notebook afterwards. The form of that win has worked out extremely well especially by bumper standards, the second has won sicne as has the third, sixth, seventh and the eigth so lots of substance to that effort. how he gets on over hurdles will be interesting but it is significant that connections have thought him good enough to go into a graded event straight away. 1.55 Aitmatov 9/2 var bog 15 pts Another hot race with the likes of Kazal, Catch Me, Hardy Eustace plus a couple of interesting mares. Probably taking most prominance is the clash once again between Aitmatov and Kazal. Kazal a real grinder who is most effective in bog like conditions and has had victories over Aitmatov in the past. However i give prefernce to Aitmatov who i think has his ideal trip today. He has been tried at 2m and 3m with mixed success but at this sort of middle distance he is a major threat and especially at this time of the season. Last season he was very impressive early on in the season like a lot of Meade horses, he got up late on at this distance to beat Sweet Kiln once in a graded event proving once again that he can go on slower ground. His form did dip a bit afterwards but that was the case for lots of Meade horses and during that time included being behind Kazal twice, once over a trip that may have stretched him. However with Meade starting the season well and with Aitmatov probbaly running over his ideal trip, I give preference to him. 2.55 Schindlers Hunt 9/2 bet3 bog 15 pts Top class in his novice chaser as he won a couple of grade 1 events before only a clerical error stopped him taking his chance at the arkle. His form was a bit below par early on last season but he ran a fine race to be fourth in the QMCC, he set a lot of the running that day and whilst well beaten by the awesome Master Minded, he deserves a lot of credit for his performance and was a bit unlukcy to have third spot taken late on. After that he won a big chase ahead of mansony who was giving weight but was still well put in his place by schindlers hunt. Mansony just got the edge over him very narrowly in a grade 1 after that to prove their is little between them but I just feel that Schindlers Hunt looks to have good conditions today. The ground is absolutely fine for him, so is 2m whereas Mansony has hinted of late that he may need a trip now. Another horse I like is Scotirish but he has a couple of issues, one his jumping but also the decision to drop him back in trip when he seemed to thrive over an increased trip at the end of last season. 3.25 Aran concerto 5/6 spo 15 pts Massive hype horse this one and that probably does not do him justice. Meade once famously and arguably regrettably said it was the best horse he ever trained. Still he was top class in typical Meade fashion early on two years back over hurdles, he won a couple of grade 1 events in good style and looked a real star, the fact he went off just 5/2 at chelt. said it all but he ran maybe a bit below par that day. Still ran repectably but he paid for a mistake two out and ended up fifth in a strongish ballymore that year. He then had the odd niggle that kept him back for a year but that could end up suiting him in the long term. Certainly it is a hugley respected chasing bow, he ought to have been well schooled, he is a fascinating runner, could be end up cheltenham class? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted November 12, 2008 Author Share Posted November 12, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 515pts Returned 701.83pts P/L +186.83 Yield +36.27% Strike rate 31.42% (11/35) Bang 1.25 Carrick Oscar 11/4 bet3 bog 15 pts Put this up earlier this season over hurdles where he was a creditible third and he be fitter for that run today. Anyway today he moves to fences for the first time and looks a sort that could do fairly well over them, having boasted solid hurdle form including an early victory over mark the book, some ok runs in heavy ground showing no problems with the conditions today and of course lto's effort. Still very lightly raced for an 8 year old, he could have a future over fences if he takes to them today, ground no problem and trainer done well with the runners he has had so far this season. 2.00 Mr Strachan 4/1 lad 15 pts Bob Bob Bobbin is moving onto a nice handicap mark but is a horse I just have not got right in the last season or two and Im not sure how many more chances Im giving it. Mr Strachan is another horse who could be well handicapped, the fact he went off fav for the Jewson at chelt. says something. Earlier his chase form adds up well, just behind l'antartique and ahead of ungaro, not too far off tidal bay, ahead of arkle second kruguyrova and that all reads well and looks better than a 131 horse really. His form did tail off a bit at the end of the season but lto last year he did prove he could get this trip, earlier in his hurdle days he had no problem at all with heavy ground and indeed relished it. Solid claims. Kem 2.15 Duc De Regniere 2/1 var bog 15 pts Never really happened for him as a chaser last year despite early promise behind tidal bay and an easy early win. However back to hurdles over a c and d he relishes, he could still be a big threat. His limited hurdle form shows lots of promise, on his bri. bow he beat osana no less and even the third that day is a solid 140+ horse. Then over c and d he won well enough to beat battlecry who has since proved a good chaser. At the fest. that year he ran below par somewhat but given how lightly raced he is, there is no reason as to why he wont improve further this year initially as a hurdler and maybe as a chaser in the future. 2.50 Imsingingtheblues 5/6 var 15 pts Very impressive chasing debutant from this one, beat greenbridge, a horse who was good over hurdles and since ran behind another nicholls horse perhaps below par, and beat him very well too. For a novice jumped very well over c and d and quite frankly dominated the race and it wasnt a surprise to see arkle quotes afterwards. He was a good enough hurdler particularly early on last season with victories of the talented hobbs pair county zen and the top class snap tie when getting weight but the suggestion could be that he ends up perhaps a better chaser, certainly evidence of first run encourages. It is a real tough task today against more experienced horses like modicum (great third last season at aint. but disappointing since) but imsingingtheblues could be up to it especially if he jumps like he did last time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted November 14, 2008 Author Share Posted November 14, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 575pts Returned 754.33pts P/L +179.33 Yield +31.18% Strike rate 30.76% (12/39) Chelt 1.15 Millards Lad 20/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Tricky race this I feel but a horse possibly overlooked is Millards Lad. Last season initially Millards Lad was progressive, he won three chases on the trot, improving all the time a couple of solid seconds. Indeed the second here was a fine run, only just went down in a good handicap involving the likes of irish raptor, an accordian who travelled well before a mistake, so there is real substance in that race and millards lad still produced a fine effort. Sure after that he has disappointed a bit before having a couple of hurdle runs in the summer but on earlier form he cant be ignored, he can go well fresh, track and ground no problem either. 3.35 Tamadot 14/1 wh 7.5 pts e.w Quite lightly raced this one and showed useful ability last season. The second run especially reads very well in a warm race at newb., fourth that day and horses around him have done no harm to that form with pettifour the winner improving markedly since and is now a legit. wh contender, the second and third also won after that race and it wasnt really a surprise to see tamadot come out and do similar afterwards on soft ground. Then he ran into herecomesthetruth who now looks a fine chasing prospect (see below) so no real harm with that form. He did run poorly on his last hurdle start and that is a bit of a concern but after a break, with a promisng 8 pound claimer on and with patches of fair form especially the second run at newb. he has solid claims in a competitive race. 4.05 Herecomesthetruth 13/10 spo 15 pts Very impressed with this one on its chasing bow. I was on crescent island who has won since but knew a long way out that this one was travelling far better and ended up a good winner at chep. He looks made for jumping being a former point winner but he showed enough over hurdles that he has some amount of class and as I say was impressive lto, jumping well and proving an easy winner. Some decent opposition today, the strong travelling razor royale probably the biggest threat and he looked a threat before falling behind ring the boss lto and himself was a good hurdler, better than these. However Im not totally convinced what the NTD horse finds off the bridle and due to his fall lto when things were getting serious, we never found out that day and besides he could just be bumping into one here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted November 15, 2008 Author Share Posted November 15, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 620pts Returned 788.08pts P/L +168.08 Yield +27.11% Strike rate 30.95% (12/42) Will put up prices in the morning. Chelt 12.50 Saticon 15 pts A horse of some class on the flat this one. Not disgraced in 3 or 4 starts before winning a couple of races and whilst its difficult to read that form, the win over a horse called tangaspeed reads well, as that one since won a listed race and had good efforst in group 3s not to mention 'only' being 7 lengths behind zarkava. One thing about his flat form was that he really was more of a staying type at the end so 2m at kem. in his first hurdle race and a slowly run one at that, was never going to show him in good light and actually his class just about got him through that. This stiffer 2m today and surely at more of a lick should suit him much more today and put him better light, improvement should be expected naturally from his first hurdle run and soft ground would be no problem judging by one piece of flat form where it seems as though ground was as described for once abroad. 1.25 Big Fella Thanks 15 pts Dour stayer this one and potentially one for the 4m novice chase at the festival? Showed something over hurdles including ability to handle softer ground which he thrives in but looks more of a chaser in the making and ran well enough on debut only to get pipped in a 3 way finish late on by WL with west end rocker (reopposes) not too far off either and just in front of this one. However a mistake two out was costly that day and without it probably would just have won. Also a key factor here is the huge stamina test that this is going to be for these novices and I feel that will just play into big fella thanks' hands and offer some condolence for the same connections losing willyandwoody not to mention walsh for a couple of months in the same race 12 months ago. 2.35 Silverburn 15 pts Shortish price in some ways but I see this one as being a long way ahead of the handicapper for me and if he doesnt show it later then I believe he will show it at one stage. He currently runs off 143 today but its not impossible to suggest that he could be a Ryan Air horse at the end of the season and if that was to be the case then 143 could look very lenient. The main thing I like about him here is the trip. In the classy RSA, he travelled like the class horse for me for some way but 3m was always testing him and it wasnt surprsing to see him fade late on. The drop back in trip to a distance he has won off before, looks right up his street. Look at the horses who went through with the trip in the RSA, Roll Along/Albertas Run, they are rated 150+ (RA 158), Silverburn would have their measure if the trip would have been this distance in the RSA, certainly Roll Along and what would he have been rated then? He was useful enough over hurdles (144 rated) but I think he can surpass that as a chaser. Ok he is still pretty inexperienced over fences and that arguably is his biggest concern today but he already has shown some class. Good enough effort on chase debut behind hobbs hill, ok effort under probably not a great ride at kem in grade 1 before winning a grade 1 himself beating the good hurdler market man and wee robbie who ok may not be a grade 1 horse but is a solid enough yardstick. As i said earlier run lto was good to a point before stamina didnt kick in. That shouldnt be a problem today, ground absolutely fine probably idea, another factor is possible improvement from breathing op that works for so many of PN's runners. Also Im not sure of some of the other notable contenders. Barbers Shop I thought was flattered in the Jewson to get as close as he did by winner doing nothing in front, imperial commander can make some costly mistakes at the wrong time and needs to iron them out, ouzbeck might not like the ground, nor three mirrors who for me would have bold claims on better ground. Dont Push It could be a darkhorse if last two efforts during trainers average form can be ignored, remember he pushed denman once but Silverburn I must admit I think is a well handicapped horse and has the opportunity to prove it today. 3.10 To Arms 7.5 pts e.w Lurking near the bottom of the handicap is To Arms who ran a cracker lto. Running out of the handicap, he pulled clear with two others before being just third behind the talented hills of aran and forest pennant who I think is a RSA horse when switched to fences later. He still is unexposed as a hurdler, just the three runs so far and all with promise, good win on debut, not disgraced in grade 2 and good effrot in handicap lto. Can handle soft ground too judging by one effort on the flat, e.w chance. 3.45 Keki Buku 7.5 pts e.w Impressive in one bumper win when beat calgary bay who has since proven to be a good hurdler and could be an arkle player this season. Indeed considered good enough to run in chelt. bumper and start just 16/1 for an eng. trained horse. Disappointed a bit there especially as 80/1 stablemate was good enough to be 8th so one imagines he may not have quiet performed as expected or after that. however over hurdles has made an encouraging start. Ran into diamond harry who hismelf had some nice bumper wins and was a class appart at uttox. but still keki buku ran well enough that day. Lto he got off teh mark with a comfortable enough win, another bumper formline in conflcitofinterest (probably needs it quicker) was behind. Difficult to read too much into whether 119 will prove lenient or tight at this stage on handicap bow but certainly there is no reason why he cant improve even more, ground no problem, the testing nature of the track also should suit as he shapes like a horse who may need a trip at one point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted November 15, 2008 Author Share Posted November 15, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Saticon 4/1 sj bog Big Fella Thanks 15/8 var Silverburn 7/2 var bog To Arms 16/1 var bog Keki Buku 17/2 sky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted November 16, 2008 Author Share Posted November 16, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 695pts Returned 788.08pts P/L +93.08 Yield +13.39% Strike rate 25.53% (12/47) Absolutely nothing yesterday. Chelt 1.45 Moon over Miami 10/3 lad 15 pts Find this a tricky race with quite a few of these with the odd question to answer including moon over miami. However moon over miami does have a fair bit going for him. Certainly talented enough if not reliable enough, he seems to come into his own at this place, won on the card last year in good style and also has a grade 2 hurdles win here plus a fair showing in the arkle. Last season he also recorded a good win over big bucks and ok he was beating big bucks over a trip that seemingly isnt ideal for the pn horse, he still won that day. I think definitely he needs to go left handed and hence he has produced quite a few blow outs when going right handed including an average run lto when it may have been needed. They have put some cheekpieces on him today and it could just be the thing that clicks him into gear and if he is on a going day then he is a class act in here. 2.20 Aigle D'Or 11/4 var 15 pts This was my NAP at the festival where he ran a complete shocker, a run too bad to be true. However the trainer who remains in top form, feels confident that he has put that behind him and if he did, then he is a huge threat off 140. His flat form is classy, listed winner and not disgraced in a group race and indeed only just behind a horse as classy as getaway. His early hurdle form too reads well, thrashed rivals on debut, could have been a distance if he really wanted to and the second, wind instrument is a good horse, now 130 rated after seemingly improving since. Then he won over the course in good enough style despite a clatter at the last and beat solid sorts that day in hold em, what a friend etc. Clearly he has scope for improvement being still so lightly raced and the ground shouldnt be a problem, giving his cruising speed I dont have a problem with the trip and indeed it could just turn out he is a 2m horse. Solid claims. 2.55 Super Foreman 6/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Tricky handicap but I thought super foreman ran a really good race lto. Went off very quick and at one point was 15 lengths clear and when they clsoed him down from behind I expected him to just fade away but anything but as he battled on to get third and showing some stamina to do so and at a track like chepstow. It was a classy handicap too with the winner caj a legit. ch horse, the second winning well since, five dream is a solid horse too back in fourth. Earlier his form showed promise in parts, run at uttox didnt play to his strengths but won on debut on testing ground and was unfortunate to run into la vecchia scuola who has proved a revelation over hurdles and on the flat. I think another factor here is the step up in trip, it does shape as though it will suit, certainly the way he fought back lto despite setting a strong pace suggests that, ground no problem either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted November 21, 2008 Author Share Posted November 21, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 740pts Returned 788.08pts P/L +48.08 Yield +6.49% Strike rate 24% (12/50) Aigle Dor near miss in the greatwood summed up my cheltenham. Asc 2.05 Shoreacres 3/1 var bog 15 pts Could be a good race this one with some promising types. However I like the look of powell's shoreacres. Shoreacres was an impressive fourth in the bumper at the festival, showing natural ability and also what a strong traveller he can be, cruised into that race at a time when very few indeed hardly any bar the winner were, before eventually finishing fourth. Early signs of hurdle career encourage. Was a good 10 length winner on debut ahead of a horse who has good bumper form herself. Conditions look fine today and whilst this is a tough race with dee ee williams' form working out, secret tune quietly impressive on debut but shoreacres might just have that bit extra. Kel 1.50 Naiad du Misselot 8/11 var bog 15 pts Good hurdler this one last season and proved that when just winning coral cup at festival. Made an encouraging start to his chasing bow too, one costly error early on but moved into the race well and only just failed to win. Should be much more fitter for that run today. Murphy's often come on for a first run and its natural to expect some kind of improvemnet anyway but especially with this one. His yard have been quiet but that hasnt stopped some of his good ones running well ie. three mirrors, kalahari king, this one on chase debut. Palamor was a useful hurdler and could be a main rival today but he was still some way behind naiad du misselot on hurdlas form and plus doesnt have the benefit of a chase run yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted November 22, 2008 Author Share Posted November 22, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 770pts Returned 788.08pts P/L +18.08 Yield +2.34% Strike rate 23.08% (12/52) Another couple of near misses yesterday. Four today. Asc 1.20 Jack the Giant 6/5 cor 15 pts Like the look of henderson's runner here with the trainer continuing his strong start to the season. Jack the Giant showed good ability in his novice chase season including a third in what at the time seemed a strong arkle. Last season he took advantage of a favourable hurdle mark to get a couple of big wins before returning to win over fences over a tad further than this. However he certainly isnt short of speed and this seems a good opportunity. He is currently rated 151 and its not hard to imagine him being superior to that mark by the end of the season, indeed its not hard to think he will be superior than all of these by the end of the season and that just puts it in perspecteive the tough task facing andreas to give 11 pounds to him even if he gets 5 of those claimed off. Hay 1.05 Mendo 12/1 spo 7.5 pts e.w I also looked quite hard at another consistent type in according to pete but i have just gone for mendo in this unique race with a thought also in mind that today might not be the worse time to catch him. He won a big prize fto last season at the open meeting and he proved solid enough in handicap hurdles after that with two good runs in a good race at san. and at the festival where he was a creditible fourth in the coral cup so he has plenty of experience in these type of big field races. His run after that at ain. when 9th could be seen as a touch disappointing but Im willing to excuse that to some extent given how a tough race at chelt. just a couple of weeks earlier may have taken a toll. He is not some kind of blot on the handicap or anything but what he does do is generally provide a solid yardstick who should be in the mix and possibly he might be best fto too. 2.45 Rambling Minster 14/1 sj bog 7.5 pts e.w Dour stayer this one. Actually posted a unique victory over 4m in his career and stays all day long and that will be needed today. I look at a couple of of the runners here and they seem doubtful stayers and with the strong pace that seems assured by a lot of front runners here, it could set it up for a late charge from a stayer and it could be this one. As well as his victory last season he also put up a fine effort here over c and d in a race that could not work out any better with cloudy lane, comply or die and high chimes the three ahead all winning big big prizes since and proving they were horses well in that particular day. Rambling Minster is now actually off a lower mark than that run by 3 pounds today and he could be set to take some sort of e.w advantage of that especially as I see the style of the race setting up for a stayer like him. 3.15 Tidal Fury 6/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Could be a darkhorse this one. A former grade 1 winner over hurdles in france, he has suffered a bit in patches but lto he ran a real eye catching race on his debut for murphy and suggested that at some time this season his trainer will be looking for a nice handicap and this could be it. He was fairly classy in his novice season, posted a couple of wins, at one stage was 140+ rated (now just 130) and went off just 16/1 in the arkle, not far behind jack the giant and twist magic in the betting and that reflects the promise he showed in his novice career. Things have not gone well since then and last season he never got going. However a new yard may just have freshened him up, lto he made quiet late progress in the manner of a horse who should be much fitter today, a return to a left handed track too as he often jumped left lto at asc. and whilst he probably prefers it even softer than this, he is respecetd today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted November 23, 2008 Author Share Posted November 23, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 830pts Returned 821.08pts P/L -8.92 Yield -1.07% Strike rate 23.21% (12/56) Wont see the action today but hopefully can find a couple of winners. Ain 1.40 Regal Heights 8/1 var 7.5 pts e.w Im in two minds about this one, half of me suggests he would be a bigger threat in the greater stamina test of the beecher whereas half of me also suggests that its possible he could just about get away with this trip and still prove effective. He is off a stiffish looking 150 mark but its a mark he has earned with lots of good and improved efforts last year. Often in testing ground but not always, he won a couple of races two seasons back and last year had a notable win at asc and even was the horse who suffered to be in second in the 4 runner aon dominated by denman and that was gd-sft so its not exclusive he needs bottomless ground. He is an intersting contender over these types of fences, if he takes to them he could turn out to be a national horse one day and he should be fitter for his first run this term plus the trainer is in better form now. 2.50 Irish Raptor 11/2 sj bog 7.5 pts e.w These fences seem to bring out the best in him and could well do so again. Last year in this he was a bit behind but his form returned with a brave win at chelt. in a useful race at the start of the year and that proved he can get this trip. Then he bounced back to form over these fences when he just failed to catch gwanako over a shorter trip and whilst the winner maybe just idled a bit in front, it was still a fine run by irish raptor and one the suggested one day he could be a national horse. This seems the logical next step in that direction and he showed a bit of promise over hurdles at chepstow in a race that should sharpen him up a bit for what he faces today and he is the selection. Nav 2.30 Chelsea Harbour 7/1 wh bog 7.5 pts e.w Grand old stayer this one who comes into his own into these types of races and his generally been in good form through the whole year. Towards the end of last season hit some real form, with a couple of dour stayer performances including one brave performance of top weight one day and was reasonably faniced for the GN where suprisingly he didnt quite get home that day for a horse who looked a real stayer, perhaps his jockey made that bit too much use of him in the national as indicated since. However returned this year and showed ability still there over hurdles by taking advantage of a favourable mark to get a recent win. He runs off 138 today which I dont think is beyond him, in the national he was up to 146 so he does have a bit more breathing space today, he does relish these types of races and whilst a horse like notre pere might be that more unexposed, chelsea harbour is generally a solid type who should go pretty close. Plu 2.40 Award Winner 13/8 spo 15 pts Was impressed with this ones win at exeter lto. Beat a rival who opposes in fourth today but Im not convinced that even with a turn around in the weights that one can overturn him. He showed promise when winning a bumper before being second when plugging on over this trip (suggesting increase in trip from lto's victory shouldnt be a problem) over hurdles. However fto in a new campaign he may have been a surprising winner at exe. but there was nothing flukey about it, he beat the very well regarded according to dick who was a warm order on his hurdle bow and did it fairly in a race that looked warmish, as I said increased trip looks fine and interstingly McCoy here today and not elsewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted November 24, 2008 Author Share Posted November 24, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 890pts Returned 860.46pts P/L -29.54 Yield -3.31% Strike rate 23.33% (14/60) Will have to be just SP tomorrow. Lud 12.50 Quidonc 15 pts Quite a few of these have the look of potential improvers in this novice hurdle event but king's runner here just about sets the standard I would say other hurdles and has the likely look of further improvement himself plus an added trip today which whilst still a question mark, shapes as though it could well suit on the basis of some french form which maybe a bit dodgy to read conclusive evidence into but still should be considered. Quidonc ran on well apparently on his last two french hurdle starts over 2m 2f on supposedly testing ground and ran well on debut which just about sets the standard here. Was beaten well enough by the talented shoreacres on bri. debut but no disgrace in that and still mixed it with second with a henderson horse of smart bumper form, with another promisng type from the knight yard just behind so the form of that run seems solid. Steps up in trip today which on french form doesnt totally concern especially on a tight track like here and with the yard in top form with a lot of winners the past couple of weeks, ranks a big danger. 2.55 Kia Kaha 15 pts Like the look of jonjo's runner here and to be fair jonjo has had a few winners in the last couple of weeks after yet another quite spell. Kia Kaha was a reasonably useful hurdler but it could just be that his chasing career turns out more profitable and he has a nice unexposed look about him. On his first chase start he chased home the well regarded and good hurdler Crescent Island who didnt perform afterwards nor really did predator who was in third (late 130s rated) and a horse of considerable talent if not wayward tendencies and then there was a gap to the fourth but he was good enough to close afterwards and is offically rated 124 so there is every reason to suggest that kia kaha could be much better than a mark like that and if he is in then that could pose problems for the field as Im not sure anything else in here has such potential. The Murphy runner effectively was ridden for second a mile off tatenen lto, will like the increased trip and should improve for it but even still is 'only' a rated a 122 horse and considering how kia kaha was comfortably ahead of a horse on his chase bow who is a 124 rated horse and ahead of a 138 horse its puts it in perspective what murphy's horse may have to do with kia kaha who I fancy to win this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted November 26, 2008 Author Share Posted November 26, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 920pts Returned 909.21pts P/L -10.79 Yield -1.17% Strike rate 24.19% (15/62) Chep 2.15 Tamadot 9/4 var bog 15 pts Backed this one at a double figure price lto in the morning yet it went off just 6/1 during the open meeting where he ran well in a competitive looking race to be third. Previously to that he had some fair form. He was fourth in a hot race at newb. last year that produced a number of subsequent winners including pettifour the winner that day who has since turned into a wh contender. He then had no trouble winning a maiden afterwards and chased home herecomesthetruth over hurdles. He steps back up in trip today having originally started off over 3m and given his style, it could well suit, for example lto in pretty testing conditions he was plugging on and similarly during runs at newb. and winc. so there is an indication that it should suit, he is in goo dform and should go close today. Kem 12.30 Somersby 5/2 pp bog 15 pts Could just be one for the knight yard here. The yard have been so quiet but they did have their first winner in an age the other day and look to have another nice prospect here. Somersby won on debut in a bumper and whilst it wasnt the strongest race of all time, he did it well enough that day on softish ground and suggested as a horse for the future. He made his hurdles bow in what I feel was a good race when he was fourth (with a bit of a gap to the fifth) and showed he has no problem on better ground. I talked about this race the other day which was won by shoreacres who has held his own in better compnay since, the second has smart bumper form, the third who I backed the other day ran ok when second and that brings us onto somersby who was fourth that day. He should improve quite a fair bit from that race with the experience it has given him and should be in the mix today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted November 26, 2008 Author Share Posted November 26, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 950pts Returned 961.71pts P/L +11.71 Yield +1.23% Strike rate 25% (16/64) Will have to just be SP tomorrow. Newb 2.05 The Tother One 15 pts Very prolific winner this one. Won 6/8 races and the two defeats he was far from disgraced in graded company, indeed if held onto a bit more at chelt. he might just have won imo. He showed tremondous progression last season from a favourable hurdle mark into graded compnay and he also made a pleasing enough debut over fences when ahead of rival today gone to lunch who meets on slightly better terms but whom Im not sure can overturn the form, possibly lacking a bit of scope and also maybe needing even more of a stamina test. The pair where some way clear and also that win showed that the tother one has no trouble with this trip as well. There is also strong reason to suggest further improvement is very possible over fences and whilst it is a tough looking field, I can see the prolific the tother one being in the mix and with strong claims to win. 2.40 Portland Bill 7.5 pts e.w A bit speculative but feel that this one could surprise a few. He does come off a lay off but has won fresh before and the booking of murphy for a yard he hardly ever rides for to my knowledge, catches the eye. Portland Bill was impressive at times last season. He won at exeter with the front two some way clear, he then placed afterwards and a run that really catches my eye was his following effort at chelt. It was off a mark of 139 which at the time seemed stiff but he was bang in contention and looked sure to play some part in the finish (second at least as the winner was in a different league on the day) before falling 4 out. Since then jumping errors have haunted him a bit but it could just be that off a lay off coming back a fresh horse and off a mark of 133 which I dont think is too harsh especially if he would have stayed up at chelt. in a better race than this he might outrun what could be a 20/1 price according to forcasts. Uttox 2.30 Iwillrememberyou 15 pts Was a progressive horse last season over hurdles (improved over 50 pounds), won 4 times including 3 on the trot and showed plenty of stamina in these type of condtions which is forecast for tomorrow. I thought on his chasing debut he showed some promise given that he probably wasnt really bang on for that run and that he looks certain to improve for it. He ended up third and one could point out that the second who was a bit of a way clear, disappointed afterwards. However I still think it was an encouraging enough debut in terms that there should be lots of improvement afterwards. Another one with a similar type of profile is camden george who made a similar type of chasing debut but I have a couple of concerns if it turned into a real staying contest for that one and also over the possible 'bounce factor' given that he was off for 18 months before his last effort. I can see this turing into a real test and that should suit a fitter iwillrememberyou. Thurl 3.10 Scotsirish 15 pts Interesting move to bring scotsirish up to 3m and I think it could just be the making of him. I have followed him for a long time and often felt that he needs a trip. Over 2m far too often he was simply outpaced before plugging on giving the suggestion he needs further. He also hasnt been helped by the odd jumping error but it could just be that the steadier gallop at 3m will help him in that department too. Its not a complete shot in the dark trip wise as he has won and impressively too at 2m 5f in what seemed a competive looking handicap and looked better that day as he finished that day, offering hope for this trip and if he gets it I think he will win this. Hairy Molly, a former bumper winner at the fets. has proved a bit disappointing so far over hurdles and fences and was fortunate to win lto. Scotsirish I think can get this extra trip and if he does he should be too good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted November 29, 2008 Author Share Posted November 29, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 1010pts Returned 961.71pts P/L -48.29 Yield -4.78% Strike rate 23.52% (16/68) Newb 12.25 Cockney Trucker 7/4 cor 15 pts Looking forward to this runner. A good bumper performer who finished strongly at the fest. to be a good 8th and showed ability during a good start to his hurdle career when thidr at chelt. with the top three putting some distance between the rest. The form of that race has worked out so well, with dee ee williams winning a good race since and beating shoreacres just (form of his first hurdle win working out really well too) in what looks a good race. Alfie Flits has won nicely since in a time that was comparable to bincoluar's win on the same card. Indeed the sixth, eighth and tenth have all won since and that means that cockney trucker's first hurdle run looks really solid form. Plus there has to be an expectation that cockney trucker should be able to improve on that run. Possibly it is hinted he may need more of a trip in time but the way it has been riding at newb. on the first few days, means the his stamina should be beneficial and I would fancy him to outbattle the classy flat and to some degree already hurdle performer from nicholls. Peppertree lane is an interesting newcomer but I feel quite strongly about cockney truckers chances here. 2.05 Blazing Bailey 4/1 var bog 15 pts I have always been a blazing bailey fan and whilst I acknowledge that inglis drever is an undisputed class act, I tend to side with BB more often than not and sometimes with success. Sure ID has beaten BB often but BB has also beaten ID twice, a fact often ignored and this season I wonder just how good ID will be. It might be possible that BB will not have to improve that much to overtake ID. ID has proved me wrong before but each year he gets older and he wasnt impressive on his last outing last season although he probably didnt take the track again as a legit. excuse. Besides BB was in good form at the end of last season, after an average run in the WH where I feel ruby didnt get on with him that well as he is a horse that you have to know (similarly to ID at one point). He won at ain. in almost ID style by staying on relentelessly from originally a struggling point and then did something similarly at punch. The blinkers have been left off today with the trainer feeling they didnt do much difference and possibly by the way his lazy style remained during his blinkered races he may have a point. I just favour BB, already sharper with a flat spin to his name, to beat the old boy. 2.40 Big Bucks 10 pts 9/2 var bog e.w I have to say I dont think this is a vintage renewal but one horse in it that may have a good chance to be much better than his current mark is big bucks for whom the gold cup may not be completely off the agenda, something that can be said for so few of these. Big Bucks basically is unexposed as a 3m+ chaser, he came into the country starting off as a 2m where showed some ability including a victory over the arkle second but he came into his own on the last start of the season at ain. over 3m. He beat that field well that day, despite jumping errors and put the sun alliance winner firmly in his place on that ocassion. He looked better as he went on as well and saw at the trip in good style, something he will have to do today. Obviously his jumping is a bit of a concern but with a summer off, he should have been schooled quite extensively in that area and it will be a test to see whether he is up to the test of a hennessey today. If he does cope with it, I think he will be hard to beat because he is one of the unexposed types in here who I struggle to see many of. Looking at the others, air force one it is suggested to be better right handed and also on better ground which could compromise his chance as he is one who looks a likely type for this race otherwise, indeed I wouldnt surprise me if he could be a decent KG outsider which would suggest he would have to figure here, except Im not sure the style of the race is gauranteed to suit him and with his front running style he is often vulnerable late on for one to nick him on the line. Albertas Run looked so good in the RSAC and Im certain saves a bit for himself but Big Bucks put him in his place lto and he was very mediocre on his seasonal bow. Oedipe I would prefer for perhaps more of speedier race like perhaps a racing post chase. verasi I wouldnt totally dismiss at a price as he will ove the ground and his victories over old benny look strong but overall I like Big Bucks here.Im a bit concerned with his jumping but if it has improved he looks one of the more unexposed types in the race who may have the necessary pounds in hand to win this. 3.45 Khyber Kim 7/2 var bog 15 pts I just wonder whether the time to catch this one is now when he is fresh. He was awesome fto last year when winning convincingly up against a nice field and producing low quotes for the supreme and specualtive ones for the ch, thats how impressive he was. After that he did disappoint, admitedly once in a strong race at don. before running flattish at chelt and just ok at aint. However he is a horse who has had some problems before and he does seem to be one that has the ability its just a matter of catching him at the right time and its possible that time could be today when fresh. He has a new yard now as well and if he is on song like say at newb. last year, then 140 in a handicap shouldnt pose many problems although that is an if. Towc 12.50 Quickbeam 5/6 var bog 15 pts I think Quickbeam has just that bit more than some of his rivals today and the drop back in trip should be a help. A horse of some promise over hurdles and often a horse who travelled well, perhaps in the style of a horse who would be capable of dropping back in trip, he made an ok debut over fences. He jumped fairly but just weakened late on over 3m running into a class act and eventually was picked off for second. I do feel a less demanding test will be to his advantage today and he has that today even if it is at a track like towc. Over his hurdles days he showed he could handle such ground conditions that he faces today and he could handle lesser trips than 3m, although this is less than some of his hurdle wins. He might just have this bit extra class today. Fair 2.05 Wins Now 7/1 7.5 pts e.w Once a good hurdler, he was fifth in a weak supreme and then second behind tidal bay having been upsides him at the last. Last season over fences he didnt win but still showed a bit of promise, he was upsides pedrobob one day before a fall and then eventually remounting to complete and also chased home sctosirish. Indeed during that run he shaped like more of a stayer to plug on having not quite managed the pace to be competitive enough at the crunch of the race. Hence todays extended trip I think is to his liking. His seasonal debut lto in actually what could turn out to be a good race with some promising types in it, suggested as such as well and he should be a lot sharper for that first run after such a break. He shouldnt have any problem with the ground, he will like this extra trip and he looks an interesting contender especially if he can recapture some of the genuine promise of his hurdle days over fences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted November 30, 2008 Author Share Posted November 30, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 1105pts Returned 1023.59pts P/L -81.41 Yield -7.36% Strike rate 24.32% (18/74) Mixed day yesterday, ended it down but so easily could have been different in the last two races at newb. Leic 12.45 Lake Legend 5/6 var bog 15 pts Lake Legend seems to set the standard here. A winner and a comprehensive winner at that on his last bumper start, he made a good start to his hurdle career. Beat a solid yardstick in ogee who is officially late 120s rated and himself has bumped into nice types at times like punchestowns no less, cape tribulation before and therefore sets a solid standard to lake legend's first hurdle win. The close up third has since come up and been second so the front three that pulled clear in lake legend's race all look reasonable and therefore for lake legend to beat them on debut without experience encourages. He should come on for that run and I dont think the ground will cause him massive trouble, he handles doft on his firs bumper start and actually performed to a similar ability that day as he did with his last bumper win. There are a couple of newcomers to the hurdling arena here who are feared but lake legend sets a soldi standard for them to reach and should improve on that level. Fair 1.40 Forpadydeplasterer 7/2 var bog 15 pts I have to say this one is a bit on reputation but i do believe the FPDP could be very interesting over fences. Really he is absolutely built for fences once he gets used to them and whilst what he showed on his first chase win was moderate and not up to grade 1 standard, he has masses of improvement in him. His hurdle career was good, grade 1 winner which was most encouraging for a horse not built for hurdles nor that experienced either so clearly he has lots of natural ability. He ran ok at chelt. before perhaps flattering out late on. His first chase run wasnt great in the since it was a narrow victory over types who havent boosted the form since but to be fair it wasnt run at a great gallop and never saw him in a light that was to suit him. He steps up in trip today which should be just about ok although there are some questions quite as to what his trip will be. Obviously Tranquil sea and Trafford Lad are feared but I just think that FPTP has much more to offer over fences than what he showed fto and is a lively contender. 2.10 Catch Me 2/1 var 15 pts Was very impressed with this one lto. I was on aitmatov that day and whilst he possibly needed the run and should improve today as will a few in behind him that day, it is hard to see them overturning the form with catch me who stayed on strongly lto. He has always been a classy horse but has just struggled at times to find his trip, in his novice career he posted some good efforts at a 2 1/2 miles and 2 miles and last season won a grade 2 at 2 miles and ran creditibly in the CH. However his last attempt at 3m he was an obvious non stayer having travelled strongly. However lto over todays middle kind of trip he found conditions perfect and ran out such a clear winner that I struggle to see that form being overturned and I fancy him to win a first grade 1 today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted November 30, 2008 Author Share Posted November 30, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 1150pts Returned 1068.59pts P/L -81.41 Yield -7.08% Strike rate 24.67% (19/77) Will do two tomorrow and both SP. Folk 1.30 The Old Pretender 15 pts This could turn out to be quite a decent novice contest especially for the track. There seem three main ones to concentrate on. Awesome George was a good winner lto and Martys Mission has performed well enough on his first two starts. However I think the hurdling debutant The Old Pretender is a very interesting recruit. He was so impressive in his first start in a bumper when he won so easily and got quotes for the fest. bumper after that run and they were justified as the style of his first win was just so impressive. Indeed it was considered good enough for him to start co fav. for a grade 2 after that where possibly he underachieved a bit but looking back at it now, it wasnt as bad a run. The winner mad max and the second the nightingale are good horses and the old pretender initially couldnt live with their extra pace but he plugged onto be fifth. Looking at that I think the decision to start him off at 2 and a half miles is fairly justified, judging by his first win he should like the ground, it will be interesting to see how he gets on and he might just be good enough to win on hurdling debut. 2.30 Ballyveeney 15 pts Ranks as a bit of an unkown here but I think he looks quite interesting on his handicap bow here off just 102. He has competed in three races so far and whilst his first run it is hard to say he showed anything really, there was much more encouragement in his last two runs. Both times he has been beaten a fair way still, however he hinted on both ocassions that he was capable of better, staying on both times in fair races. Indeed the effort a long way behind mahonia has seen quite a few of the beaten horses around him since come out and when/run well enough in defeat to give encouragement. Another major key today is that he steps up in trip which given his style of running and bits of his pedigree looks a major plus, also on that the testing ground shouldnt prove a problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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