Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 4898pts Returned 5261.49pts P/L +363.49 Yield +7.42% Strike rate 29.25% (86/294) Chelt 2.10 Torpichen 4/5 spo 15 pts This one could make amends for an ok effort in the supreme if perhaps slightly disappointing too. Its ok in the sense of this race but really given his profile and how impressive he was at san and also the unexposed flat profile he had, it was arguably a bit lacklustre. However he should improve for that experience given how inexperienced he really was. Perhaps the smaller field will also help and looks the pick here with rory boy maybe to push him close. 3.10 Amore Mio 14/1 wh bog 7.5 pts e.w I backed the pipe runner lto but cant have him today after such a beating lto. Instead I will go for one who did have a similar kind of beating lto but is not the same price and worth more of a chance. This one had a really good second behind TH winner Zaynar in a race that worked out with the third stow and the fourth saticon boosting the form. Then it got off the mark at san and looked one to follow. Lto it was disappointing in the TH but that can happen to inexperienced horses in such a big field and can be forgiven to some extent, a few beaten some way in that race have completely overturned form since then and Amore Mio could be one to do so. 3.55 Private be 5/1 spo 7.5 pts e.w Johnson is elsewhere but Private Be is a horse for whom has been frustrating but I have felt for a while has been fairly handicapped. Some of its early form here in the pp and also when beating nacarat was good and whilst he was a bit disappointing afterwards, his race at ain over the national fences was fair when fifth and he has even been dropped since then by 6 pounds which makes him a fair option here and could be an e.w shot to nothing. 4.30 Quaddick Lake 13/2 bet3 bog 7.5 pts e.w Was my first bet on here this season and finally after so many lacklustre runs he is fulfilling the promise of his first run behind Snap tie when still upsides him at the last before falling. After that lost his way badly but has returned to form of late, won twice on the bounce at Exeter and seemingly thrived over an extended trip. Actually has surprised me winning at Exeter as I don’t like him right handed and often he wastes ground by jumping that way but it was still no problem. Ground today could be an issue particularly if continues to rain, connections may take him out but some of his relatives handled softer ground so its not impossible he cant handle it and continue winning run despite higher mark. 5.50 Lodge Lane 15/8 betfr 15 pts Always likely to be a chaser and lto he returned to form. He has started of his chase career well and looked a RSA candidate, beat Wichita Lineman but then produced two poor efforts and jumped badly both times. However the yard wasn’t in good form then and is now, the blinkers really helped lto where he finished second and maybe was a touch unfortunate, arguably idling cost him victory. He does have his quirks, check his chelt bumper run to see that but he has a lot of talent too and the yard form is a bonus.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 4973pts Returned 5276.5pts P/L +303.5 Yield +6.1% Strike rate 29.09% (87/299) Chelt 2.45 Fire and Rain 4/1 sky 15 pts The Daly horse who earlier had form with ping pong sivola which clearly reads well is respected by this once aiden o brien trained horse is finally getting his act together or so it seems. He showed nothing over novice hurdles but connections cleverly used a mark crated to go chasing and its worked so far. He has won two straight now after being pulled up on his first chase go and maybe the better ground has helped too. Hence if it did rain today and got into the ground it may not suit ideally but at the moment connection are keeping him in. Both his wins have come despite him losing at times loads of ground jumping left handed so going left handed today should in theory help more, there could still be a bit more to come and he could propser. 3.20 Argento Luna 3/1 bet3 bog 15 pts Been a real good sort to me this season. Seemingly has just been getting better and at this time, mares in form are often worth keeping an eye on. Put up an improved performance lto which was a career best to just win the listed contest at newb. Whilst the winning margin was nothing that day, she still travelled into the race well and hence Im not sure a six pound rise is that bad tbh and could well be defied again. 3.55 Gala Evening 12/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pts e.w A really tough race this but gala evening had a significant form boost yesterday and stepping up in trip is the pick. His hurdle form has improved this season, first up plugging on behind a stayer in character building and then after one poor un beating From Dawn to Dusk who hacked up really yesterday, at least in the way he travelled and that must have been a bit of a form boost for this one, he is not the only horse to come out of that race and do well either. After that had a narrow defeat to a horse who didn’t run that well yesterday but he just looked like he needed a trip that day and hence the step up to 3m shapes as though it will. Had a good recent spin on the flat too and is now a useful 88 staying horse on the flat so has improved in that sphere and looks like he is over hurdles too, if the extra trip today is to his benefit, he could go close in a fierce race.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009

3.20 Argento Luna

Never managed to caught this one right this season. Backed every time he flopped and left every time he won. Gl, mate :ok

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 5003pts Returned 5306.5pts P/L +303.5 Yield +6.06% Strike rate 29.23% (88/301) Ayr 2.50 Medermit 11/4 bluesq 15 pts Could be a very good opportunity today off 146 in a handicap. This horse has had a real steadily improving profile with a couple of wins and then a fabulous effort in the supreme to be arguably an unlucky fast finishing second. Only arguably unlucky as the winner was idling somewhat but Medermit came with a late rattle and put up a good performance. Really after that performance, 146 in a handicap does look fairly reasonable for a horse who could yet have serious CH claims next year. 3.25 Chiaro 18/1 spo 7.5 pts e.w Has never been the most straight forward one in his career and his overall win record shows that but lto he put up a really improved performance. After hinting he has needed a trip for a while, when granted with a trip lto he won and did so in the style of a horse with a bit in hand as he seemed to idle somewhat. Officially according to the handicapper today he now has something in hand and given that he didn’t even seem to show totally what he had lto he may have a bit more and could go well.

[WoodyTHFC]

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 5045pts Returned 5347.75pts P/L +299.75 Yield +5.94% Strike rate 29.27% (89/304) Kem 6.35 Fire and Rain 2.1 pp bog 15 pts This is what I said about this one the other day when it was a non runner, 'The Daly horse who earlier had form with ping pong sivola which clearly reads well is respected by this once aiden o brien trained horse is finally getting his act together or so it seems. He showed nothing over novice hurdles but connections cleverly used a mark crated to go chasing and its worked so far. He has won two straight now after being pulled up on his first chase go and maybe the better ground has helped too. Hence if it did rain today and got into the ground it may not suit ideally but at the moment connection are keeping him in. Both his wins have come despite him losing at times loads of ground jumping left handed so going left handed today should in theory help more, there could still be a bit more to come and he could propser.' Slight difference today is that it is back right handed which doesnt really suit him ideally yet he hasnt done it in his last two wins right handed so not enough to put me off him.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 5060pts Returned 5379.25pts P/L +319.25 Yield +6.30% Strike rate 29.5% (90/305) Perth 2.10 Frontier Dancer 7/2 spo 15 pts Going against Eradicate here. I have been disappointed with his last couple of efforts and going for NTD horse. He is a trainer who often targets this venue and frontier dancer has some fair form. After winning a novice hurdle at warw, he was a bit unfortunate next time when falling 2 out when still going well behind karabak. After that he had a bit of a lacklustre effort when the yard was still not right but he bounced back to run a really good race at bang afterwards and just go down to calusa crystal who he gave seven pounds too and who twice has won since, the pair some way clear. After that he found things too competitive in a handicap but todays more select field could suit and he is the selection. 3.40 Money Trix 3/1 sj bog 15 pts The concern here or at least the question mark is the ground, has never raced on ground this quick before but if connections feel it is satisfactory and given his past, they are only going to run him if they feel its right then Im going to chance it. Presumably Ollie magern will try and make this a test and possol is a good horse who will try and take advantage but it could just set up for this lightly raced sort. He has that touch of class about him, showed it over hurdles in his novice days and has shown ability over a period over fences. Good win on his debut and then had problems but bounced back this season with a second in a handicap and then a good win lto albeit the fav went out early. Still has lots of room for improvement and if he handles the ground then clear chance.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 5075pts Returned 5446.75pts P/L +371.75 Yield +7.32% Strike rate 29.73% (91/306) Chep 7.55 China Gold 13/8 cor 15 pts I like China Gold here. No doubt fistral beach will have its fans but much like eradicate yesterday, he hasn’t convinced at all with his attitude and doesn’t appear to find anywhere near as much as he looks like he will. His recent losing record all from promising situation at times during the race tells as much. The blinkers will need to do the trick today. In contrast, China Gold seems a bit more resolute and also has some good form. It hasn’t won yet over hurdles but has decent form amongst the likes of, Copper Bleu, a good run behind Dave’s Dream. Lto he was perhaps a bit lacklustre behind a good sort of lavelle’s but it may have been that the trip stretched him that day and today back in trip he is the selection.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 5090pts Returned 5488pts P/L +398 Yield +7.81% Strike rate 29.96% (92/307) San 2.35 Kalahari King 11/10 pp bog 15 pts Like KK here. He comes to life at this time of year and he was impressive at ain. I was slightly worried would he get done for speed on a speedier track at chelt given he was slightly done for a moment by the strong travelling FPTP at chelt who just held his late finish off. However he was more than speedy enough and was a fine winner. He steps up today but faces rivals with questions to answer.TM at his best would give him a race but he has completely lost the plot lately and hasn’t been running near his best form, even when granted with more suitable conditions other than chelt ie. Kem. Kalahari King for me 3.10 Hennessy 10/1 pp bog 7.5 pts Not a great renewal imo but nonetheless competitive. Darkness heads them and I liked him for the gn where he was well in but he didn’t jump well enough that day. He is not out of it especially as he is a grade 1 winner at this track but there might be one or two lurking of interest. Hennessy could be one of these. He is quite unexposed unlike most of these. He can make jumping errors which is a worry and didn’t help him lto 2 out where he still ran well if not totally seeing out the real test at chelt in the 4m race. This is an easier trip today but still plays to his general stamina strengths. His earlier folk win was good when the yards horses were in bad form and showed he can go on this ground and fair chance with champ on board. Oadachee 8/1 spo 7.5 pts e.w Unlike Hennessy this one is more exposed and more of a veteran but he seems to be bang in form atm and officially well in here after a fine effort in his last race. Over the GN fences he stayed on well to be second behind an impressive winner and he was second by a fair way that day. He has been revitalised by cheek pieces and a tongue tie and previously ran fairly at chelt. He earlier had run a good race behind oslot which needs respect in the galway plate so as I say recent form is fair and could go close today.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 5135pts Returned 5596.75pts P/L +461.75 Yield +8.99% Strike rate 30% (93/310) The thread will finish after punch at the end of the week. Plum 2.00 Quaddick Lake 15/8 boy bog 15 pts Backed him lto and he was hopeless at chelt, right at the back before his jockey hinted at putting him into the race for him to only fade right away. On that run he is no interest today but on his previous two wins he certainly is and the ground may well have turned against him at chelt ultimately. Won nicely both times on very quick ground which I hope he gets today, rain could be a worry and then i hope connections take him out if it has a huge effect. However he really enjoyed the quick ground during those two wins and managed to win both times despite constantly losing ground by jumping left handed at nearly every hurdle on those right handed courses. Today he is on a left handed course which Im sure is more suitable and despite a rise in the handicap following those two wins, I do not believe he is that badly handicapped for a horse who on his hurdle debut in this country was upsides snap tie no less at the last.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 5150pts Returned 5596.75pts P/L +446.75 Yield +8.67% Strike rate 29.9% (93/311) Punch Im very boring with the selections today. Could easily do a double. Stakes lightly raised for grade 1's 4.20 Hurricane Fly 4/6 sj bog 20 pts Formerly class on the flat at around 10f with listed wins over horses who went onto win champion stakes, good efforts behind french derby winners and has translated that to hurdles in ire and previously in france. All his form seems to have been boosted whether from france or ire. He has won two grade 1s in ire and on his last victory thrashed go native that day. Go native gets 3 pounds better today and is an improved horse now but even so he still has a lot to make up if HF is anywhere near his best. HF is perfectly fine right handed, has a great cruising speed which isnt surprising given his flat class and he can win this one for me. Riverside Theatre could be the best e.w alternative. 6.40 Cooldine 3/4 spo 20 pts Hugely impressed with this one at chelt. Won in good style and looked a real star of the future. Its no surprise because he always looked a mean chaser in the future when over hurdles and his earlier chase form was good. Only defeat when over inadequate race and that was in garde 1. Beat arkle winner FPTP with the pair some way clear before his chelt win so his form just looks a step above here. If he can repeat it or even come close to repeating it, this is his for the taking. Already proven right handed too.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 5190pts Returned 5630.45.75pts P/L +440.15 Yield +8.48% Strike rate 30.03% (94/313) Punch Leaving the big race alone today. Looks a really tricky contest to me. Notre Pere arguably needs an even further stamina test, question marks as regards trip to Imperial Commander, defintely Schindlers Hunt and also maybe Scotsirish. WOA has questions to answer now as at this grade do Gungadu, Miko de beauchene, Afistfullofdollars. Then AFO and AR have questions over their recent form and also both are better on a sounder surface. Finally a horse I like, Roll Along and would nearly go for but for slight concern over needing arguably an even bigger stamina test than this but also the ground, I feel he needs it much sounder, so overall just watching that race. 3.45 Keki Buki 7/1 wh bog 7.5 pts e.w Backed this a few times over here and an interesting horse for this race. Hobbs doesnt send many over but has on this ocassion and last year when he did something similar he won a huge handicap and could do something again. Keki Buki is a horse of a solid profile, good over bumpers, beating calagary bay, considered good enough for chelt. Then some fair races over hurdles, behind DH, won at winc and then two solid efforts in tough and competitive handicaps including the imperial cup lto. As I say interesting he has come over, good jockey for the race and could go well. 7.15 Jayo 7/4 sj bog 15 pts Another one I have put forward on ocassions and I feel could go fairly close. Useful over hurdles and has been similarly good at times over fences. The win over MIT, a really solid sort who has proved that at ain and chelt, is impressive. Even the effort before that when second was good enough. Arguably has disappointed a bit since and is a horse with a history of problems such as breaking blood vessels which doesnt help. However lto in a steadily run race he plugged on at the one pace to be fifth which was ok but in the context of this race was a fair effort and he could go close today.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009

Leaving the big race alone today. Looks a really tricky contest to me. Notre Pere arguably needs an even further stamina test' date=' question marks as regards trip to Imperial Commander, defintely Schindlers Hunt and also maybe Scotsirish. WOA has questions to answer now as at this grade do Gungadu, Miko de beauchene, Afistfullofdollars. Then AFO and AR have questions over their recent form and also both are better on a sounder surface. Finally a horse I like, Roll Along and would nearly go for but for slight concern over needing arguably an even bigger stamina test than this but also the ground, I feel he needs it much sounder, so overall just watching that race.[/quote'] These are my thoughts copied directly from my mind, mate :lol I could still back Roll Along though. Price has gone up and I like G Lee on and the trainer form. Should be a decent enough test today imo. Still thinking about it :)

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 5220pts Returned 5672pts P/L +452 Yield +8.65% Strike rate 30.15% (95/315) Stakes raised a touch for the garde 1's. Punch 5.30 Powerstation 13/2 pp bog 10 pts e.w I think in time 543 could well be a stayer but despite his pilot who will give him every chance of getting this trip, on this testing ground it wont be easy. Instead I like a proven stayer. Granted he doesnt have a great win record but he often runs some top class races in tough races. He showed that at the fest this year again when third albiet miles behind the class acts. His run afterwards over an inadequate trip was also good and he has run well enough on testing ground in the past to suggest he should cope. There is a theory he only runs well at chelt but he has run well elsehwere, for example once second in a grade 1 on this track and in these conditions, he is the selection. 6.40 Forpadydeplasterer 7/4 pp bog 20 ptsThis horse did me a massive favour when winning the arkle. He jumped very well once again that day and really his jumping is a major plus point for him, no novice chaser has impressed me more this season with regards their jumping. He is at 2m today and a 2m that will take some getting given conditions so that should help as at times this season he has struggled with his trip. The ground is a possible concern but to be fair he has performed on more testing ground sometimes this season so thats not a major worry for me. More of a worry could be the 7 pounds tatenen gets in what maybe his prime conditions but he has to start delivering as so far he hasnt lived up to his massive hype. FPTP has with his win over KK lto who hasnt harmed the form since with the pair nicely clear in the end and overall I like FPTP here.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 5260pts Returned 5672pts P/L +412 Yield +7.83% Strike rate 29.96% (95/317) Punch 5.30 Quevega 15/8 wh bog 20 pts Massively impressed with this one at chelt. I thought she had a good chance to win beforehand but didnt expect her to be as impressive as she was. Earlier her well documented HF form stands up too. At chelt. she put away United in very good fashion and United is not ordinary as she showed when a good third at ain. afterwards, ok possibly an improvement from one performance to another but still it gives an indication of quevega's class. She appears to travel very well so I think she can can be fine at 2m especially with it being tough to get this week seemingly. Punjabi, clearly respected but not a cert on the ground and solwhit also a challenger but the mare really impressed me last week and could take this.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 5280pts Returned 5672pts P/L +392 Yield +7.42% Strike rate 29.87% (95/318) Thats it from me for the season. Overall Im pleased with the figures once again especially after a really poor spell prior to Feb which almost had me set for a losing season which will happen one day. However managed to get a bit of form prior to chelt and then had a pretty decent chelt to restore the figures somewhat. Aintree wasnt as good for me but even still Im pleased with the figures this season and it was a very enjoyable NH season. Well done to all who had winners.