WoodyTHFC Posted December 6, 2008 Author Share Posted December 6, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 1180pts Returned 1068.59pts P/L -111.41 Yield -9.44% Strike rate 24.05% (19/79) Struggled a bit of late with a few too many seconds especially. However hopefullly can pick that up for later and should be at san. tomorrow. As a result will take some of these only SP. San 2.00 Free World 15 pts Has had a bit of reputation this one and over hurdles in limited runs in this country he never really showed it. However on his first chase bow he was impressive. He took to these fences well with a good front running performance especially for a novice. I think the form of that run is good too, the second won very easily since, the third unfortunately broke a blood vessel in a race that would have provided a key line for this race but he was a useful hurdler as was the fourth, planet of sound who is well regarded by hobbs so there seems a solid sense about that first run. He steps up in class today and there looks to be quite a lot of early pace if free world makes it which Im not sure he will, with the johnson and king horse (impressive lto) but free world won nicely here lto and I think can do so again. 2.35 Master Minded 4/6 wh bog 15 pts Considered the double on the PN pair but just going with two singles. Quite simply here is the proven class act. Was simply breathtaking in last years QMCC in easily the most stylish performance of the festival. Won by a canter that day and if he runs anything up to than surely he wins this. Admitedly he was beaten afterwards when maybe the trip and even a bit of the effects of the previous performance told. However he makes his seasonal return at 2m today and should be primed for this well established target. I like the fact that he is a c and d winner here, something the main rival tidal bay has to prove as his jumping will have a severe examination today and it will be interesting to see how he copes. I like Tidal Bay and backed him in the arkle he put together a good jumping round in the main having previously been questionable in that department and was a very good winner. He also confirmed his class at ain. and showed his well being lto. However I do have in the back of my mind how will he cope with some of the fences here at real speed which there will be tomorrow especially with the trail blazer from germany here and also that he may need further in time, in fact he has already proven his ability over further. Besides if the MM of March turns up then most of these I playing for second place. Master Minded for me. 3.05 Wingman 9/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Wingman ran well enough in this race last year when third admittedly off a mark much lower than today. However I feel last years race was stronger than this years one, I dont feel there is a ring the boss, breedsbreeze in this years contest and wingman is a horse who Im not convinced we have got to the bottom of yet. He went onto win the competitive tote gold cup last year and whilst he has risen in the weights since then, his run lto encourages for this race today. When ridden by an inexperienced rider and clearly not the yards first choice, he stayed on reasonably eye catchingly having been originally outpaced to be sixth. Now that run will need to be improved on today, for a start to overturn the form with kings revenge but it wouldnt surprise me whatsoever to see wingman surprise one or two later today. He likes it round here having won and that decent third in the race last year, the ground should be ideal and the yard do extremely well at targetting their horses for races of this nature and wingman's run lto suggested to me he might be one such horse. 3.35 Rambling Minster 7/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Like the look of this really dour stayer here. Admittedly I liked him lto too but he just couldnt quite have that little bit extra pace required and in the end just only plugged on to be sixth. However the extra test provided today will only help him further in regard to stamina, he is a rare breed in that he has won over the unusual 4m+ plus trip already and that will help later today given how this often is won by a horse with real extreme stamina credentials. Indeed he was entered for the kelso nat. which he won last year but he has perhaps significantly chosen this instead. The ground shouldnt be too much of a problem, he probably will be that much fitter for his first two runs this season which even lto was probably still needed, he has experience over these fences already which I feel is important here and whilst perhaps he doesnt immediately strike as one who has loads of pounds in hand on the handiapper, he has conditions he should relish that should make him solid enough to be in the mix. Nav 1.45 Made in Taipan 15 pts Was a fairly useful hurdler this one 140+ rated, but the the impression created on its first chase start suggests it could be an even better chaser. Was a very impressive winner on debut and really one of the most impressive performances by a novice chaser so far, won by 17 lengths and there were some very nice types in behind which make the form very solid looking, the second has placed since but rare bob in fourth makes the form stand up considering that ones efforts in grade 1 company afterwards, good hurdlers like wins now and jayo, well put in their place by MIT, have come close to winning since over fences and look winners in waiting, so for MIT to emphatically beat him like he did fto over fences reads well and he should have the class to follow up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted December 9, 2008 Author Share Posted December 9, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 1255pts Returned 1123.59pts P/L -131.41 Yield -10.47% Strike rate 25% (21/84) Punch 1.05 Jaffonnien 5/2 var 15 pts I put this up lto and now that hopefully it will try to win today it should have a decent chance. I say that because when pitched into graded company for his debut, he was given an extremely quiet ride when sixth. Basically he was kept miles out further than anyone else before seemingly still being under no pressure to be sixth. In this country the issue may well have been dealt with differently. However today he is pitched in again and looks to have some good claims, the fact he could still be sixth in a graded event despite having no real pressure shows loads of natural ability as does his bumper win over some nice types. Should come on loads today given that he should be aiming to win today and decent chance. 2.05 The Listener 5/1 var bog 10 pts e.w e.w bet to nothing here hopefully. The Listener won this race brilliantly last year and I believe has been forgotten today a bit. Whilst Noland and WOA deserve respect, so to does The Listener who can be excused his reappearance a touch when a mistake destroyed any major chance and besides he often needs his first run. The thing in his advantage today is the testing ground which he absolutely relishes as he proved in this race last year. Also the middle trip of 2 1/2 miles also suits in this ground, at times, despite his liking for testing ground generally, he has struggled to get home over 3m on testing ground so this should really suit as it did last year when he won by 17 lengths. A similar performance today and he will be tough to beat and has to be in the mix at the very least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted December 11, 2008 Author Share Posted December 11, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 1285pts Returned 1146.09pts P/L -138.91 Yield -10.81% Strike rate 25.58% (22/86) Need to try to cut down a bit on the seconds of late. Hunt 12.40 Shatabi 5/6 var bog 15 pts I have had the odd question mark over this ones willingness at times but despite that I think she has the class factor over these. She was pretty decent over hurdles and she looked a useful chaser in the making when running an excellent second on her chase bow behind kalahari king who is prominent for the arkle and suggests of the level of form she showed that day. In truth a repeat of that I think sees her win this today. 1.40 Mister Mcgoldrick 25/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w I did fancy another outsider naracat before he was taken out but instead im going for the veteran mister mcgoldrick who may well have been dismissed too easily today. This bold front runner has been around for years now and looked to be going backwards but he was awesome at chelt. this year when thrashing a competitive looking field. Since then he has been upped hugely in the handicap and it has meant that it has been difficult for him but even so he ran well at ain. fto when a very creditible fifth and a run that puts him in this ahead of monets garden for one./ Lto he couldnt dominate another competitive field in a handicap but I dont think he is out of this today especially given question marks about quite a few of these imo. MWDS has it to prove now, Monets Garden similarly has been disappointing for a while, Snoopy Loopy has been so good this season but Im not sure a drop in trip is what he need, trip question marks over mahogony blaze and lord henry so it could be ripe for an upset, Mister Mcgoldrick is a bold front runner who should give a decent account of himself today and might not prove easy to peg back. Taun 2.20 Kia Kaha 11/8 tote 15 pts Was very impressed with this one lto, I napped it that day and won very comfortably, never being asked a question. That run confirmed the impression he set before on his previous chase run when he was a good second amongst some fair types even if the winner has dissapointed since. On official ratings it is tight between this one and herecomesthetruth but I favour kia kaha especially over this trip on this track, herecomesthetruth I thought was impressive at chep. over 3m but I wouldnt have thought that day that he would turn into a horse who would then be running over 2m 3f at taunt. of all places, the quicker kia kaha for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted December 12, 2008 Author Share Posted December 12, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 1330pts Returned 1227.979pts P/L -102.03 Yield -7.67% Strike rate 26.97% (24/89) Quite a few tight e.w bets and hopefully to nothing if possible. Chelt 12.10 Ballyfitz evens var 15 pts NTD targetted this race last year with imperial commander and has seemingly looked to do something similar today. Ballyfitz improved tremendously over hurdles last year showing good battling qualities before ending up a festival winner. His chase career has started off pretty well too this year with two comfortable victories and against some fair types such as big fella thanks, west end rocker. It looks a tougher challenge today especially with what a friend in the line up who was a good winner on chase debut to fend off carruthers. However ballyfitz possibly could be a step ahead, he has vital course experience and could be a genuine RSAC contender. 12.45 Pennek 6/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Very unexposed runner especially over this trip. Started of his career with a good win against quickbeam over hurdles and he needed every yard of 2 1/2 miles that day having been pushed along early on, certainly shaping like a stayer in the future. He then was off for a while so the bounce factor could come into it today, before a pretty good fifth in a really good race lto with the winner a really impressive winner and the second a very good winner too since. Looking at the way pennek ran on that day, he should really appreciate the extra trip today and whilst still inexperienced, he has that unexposed look of him especially in comparison to some of these. 1.55 Character Building 5/1 wh bog 7.5 pts e.w Connections must be gutted this one missed the hennessy this year. In a race not as strong as last year, his third from last year must have put him close especially as the fourth behind CB that day ended up the surprise winner this year. Generally I like the horse and it has several strong formlines apart from the third behind denman, his second just behind aces four was a good run as was his subsequent win, his narrow second at the fest. just behind butlers cabin who went on and won the ire. nat. reads as strong form. He won over hurdles on a seasonal appearance which also encourages and off 137 today I think he is pretty well treated imo and has conditions in hsi favour. 2.30 Shouldhavehadthat 4/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Always been a bit of hype about this one, once started a race at 1/6 which says something and whilst he hasnt always delivered including for more than one yard, his win lto was impressive and suggested he has returned to form. Admittedly a mark of 112 seems fair especially with the benefit of hindsight but he ran away a comfortable winner and one that has earned a rise back up to 124. I still believe he can be up to such a mark, useful claimer on to negate some of that as well and if he gets round once again he should be looking to place at least and quite possibly win. 3.05 Gloucester 4/1 lad 7.5 pts e.w Possibly there are reservations about a horse who hasnt won yet over hurdles but I do like this ones form. Over hurdles he twice hasnt been disgraced when huge prices in graded company last year and he has started of this season very well. His second in a novice hurdle here two starts back reads incredibly well with winners since from the first, third, fourth, sixth and eight and gloucester's second puts him bang in the mix and suggest that off 123 he is not to badly handicapped at all. He also was unlucky lto when still travelling well when being brought down and as long as that hasnt effected him too much, he has solid claims and should be able to place at least. 3.40 Mahonia 4/5 var bog 15 pts Interesting connections this one and showed useful ability over bumpers which hinted he could be good over hurdles at some point and so it has proved. Won on his first hurdle start and in style at exe., travelling well before ending up an easy winner and form of that win has worked out quite well with the second being a good winner since and even the well beaten sixth winning yesterday against a nicholls hotpot. He should really have it in him to improve for that first run and whilst this a bigger test today with king's a real threat judging by hsi first run, he has good claims to give walsh a welcoem back winner. Don 12.00 Saticon 11/4 var bog 15 pts Prepared to give this one another chance today. Lto I fancied thinking that the stiffer test than its first run and general improvemnet expected could see it hard to beat even though it was a competitive looking race. However he disappointed and possibly found the sticky ground not to his liking although bits of his very useful flat form indicate that perhaps shouldnt have been the case. However Im giving him another chance here, his flat form still stands out so well, I take the fact he could still win fto on a sharp track despite mainly being more of a staying type on the flat, as a positive and he should still be able to improve on that at some point and this seems a less competitive race than lto to do so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted December 19, 2008 Author Share Posted December 19, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 1435pts Returned 1227.979pts P/L -207.03 Yield -14.42% Strike rate 25% (24/96) My complete lack of form at chelt. this season continues. Even despite picking more horses proven to the demands of the track the end result still not there. As a consquence need to try a few winners to boost a bit. Asc 1.55 Dee Ee Williams 10/3 spo 15 pts This looks a nice race in prospect here. I have gone for Dee ee Williams who I have been impressed with in both of its wins so far this season. Its win in a race at chelt. has worked out unbelieveably well as Ive mentioned before with numerous winners and often good winners coming out of the race since. After that he managed to win at the track in a race that looked decent form with the top three clear. The second that day bergo has to be feared today because afterall he was less than a length behind dee ee williams and has a good pull with dee ee williams today. However whilst feared, dee ee williams is nicely developing and with pacesetter golan way in the field, a decent clip should be assured and I can see that suiting dee ee williams to the ground to pounce late similarly to last time. Should be a decent race and I like dee ee williams who could just be a genuine chelt. horse by march. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted December 20, 2008 Author Share Posted December 20, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 1450pts Returned 1227.979pts P/L -222.03 Yield -15.31% Strike rate 24.74% (24/97) Somehow I knew Dee Ee Williams would be second and beaten a short head. Im suffering a bit from seconditus atm, out of the last 27 selections I have had, 14 of them have been second/one place out of their respective target. Anyway will keep on trying and fancy quite a few tomorrow of which I will have to place them on now and sp if no price offered. Also starting my ante post collection for chelt., considered Blazing bailey too but just doing ashkazar. Ashkazar 20/1 var for the champion hurdle 12.5 pts e.w. Could see Ashkazar's price for the ch go quite low after tomorrow. It runs in a handicap off 147 but its very conceivable for me that its at least a ch contender in which case it could take some beating tomorrow. This horse was a former aga khan horse on the flat and a good one at that, just lost to royal and regal in a listed race, decent efforts in group 2s/3s. Something with that type of level on teh falt has to be respected on the hurdling scene. He started off his hurdle win with an easy win over emerald wilderness before perhaps a disappointing effort behind franchoek. However since that run he has performed very well over hurdles under different tactics when being more prominently ridden. Im not sure he has to be ridden in such a way but the tactics certainly worked when he won the competitive imperial cup and than run a mighty race at chelt., only just going down to CAJ giving two pounds as well and that is just a 7/1 shot for the ch. I think there are some legitimate claims that ashkazar could overturn that form around. A nice sort who could improve anyway, his run at chelt. was good in the sense that the nature of the race didnt necessarily sort him. He did best of the prominent runners by some way in that race, given the gruelling nature of the track that day, it was always going to be hard to make all/ride prominently for still inexperienced 4 year olds. Also the run was coming off his imperial cup win just a few days later so that has to be factored into the equation too. The yard went very close in this race last year with osana who didnt have the form going into last season that ashkazar has. I like the way he battles as well in his races, he sees out the 2m very well and that is a real advantage at chelt. especially if turns into a test. Be interesting to see hwo he gets going tomorrow first. Asc 1.05 Oedipe 5/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Anticipated return of trabolgan but another henderson horse I like in oedipe. Now he is not always reliable but at his best he is very useful and talented and he has shown that in a couple of decisive victories in his career. One at kempton showing he has no problem going right handed, indeed I think its a help to him, something like the racing post trophy could be a decent target for him at some point. His win at ain. was another impressive victory, beat three mirrors that day with the third a mile back. Sure he has gone up in the weights as a result and wasnt great lto in the hennessy but I felt the nature of that race wasnt really for him as it turned into a real test on ground perhaps not for him. This should be more likely for him and perhaps on more of a speed track, ground shouldnt be as tacky and if he can put a good round of jumping in, he has pretty decent claims for such an inform yard. 1.40 Binocular 5/4 pp bog 15 pts The switch to asc really suits binocular here, he has already won at asc. beating caj convincingly and his turn of foot really comes into play at this venue. At say a muddy chelt. like last week it may have been harder for him to truly see out the trip but I dont see that as a problem here. This speedier track suits his smart turn of foot, something he showed to great effect last season when thrashing celestial halo last season. He proved little more than his well being lto but still did the job efficiently enough, something some of his rivals today havent done yet this season. 2.10 Blazing Bailey 6/1 var 7.5 pts e.w BB is a horse I have often spoke in high admiration of. Not the easiest of rides at all and he needs a lot of work and encouragement but he is a classy act on his day and when with the right conditions. Lto he didnt have the right conditions, the race turned out to be a bit of a lottery for bb, a major stayer. They went no pace early and when mccoy kicked on, bb and a couple of others couldnt quite respond, a mistake two out didnt help either. Today with a pace setter like lough derg who normally goes a good clip, I cant see that being the case, stamina should be tested tomorrow and it will be interesting to see how both of henderson's cope with it, I have the odd doubt. The only thing Im a bit concerned with BB is that there are no blinkers on again today, he did improve with two victories at the end of last season with them and yet they have left them off so far and its possible he may need them. However the likely stamian test that shoudl be provided today by lough derg should help him today and I can see him, teh highest rated horse in the field, overturning the form with a few of these of lto. 2.45 Ashkazar 13/2 var bog 7.5 pts e.w See above in my ante post selection. Quite simply I see it very possible he is a CH contender and therefore off 147 today it should go fairly close if not win really. Competitive field but this one just has that class edge, afterall it was second to CAJ giving just two pounds and that is seen as a legitimate CH contender. Further improvement is very possible too and it could be another win in this race for connections that won it two years ago with acambo. Hay 2.35 Award Winner 13/2 pp bog 7.5 pts e.w Been impressed with this one this season who has won two races at a time when perhaps the yard hasnt been quiet firing. The first win against according to dick I think is a very nice win given the regard hobbs' horse is held in. Travelled noticeably well in that contest and was a nice 20/1 winner. He won after that too with the front three putting some distance between themselves and the rest. So today he runs for the first time in a handicap and it will be interesting to see how he gets on. Whilst still fairly inexperienced in the context of the race, 125 isnt a huge mark on his handicap bow, of course only time will tell quite if he is up to it but I have a suspision he might be. Newc 1.50 Drever Route 15 pts Drever Route is an interestingly named horse combining two stable starts in inglis drever and direct route. He is a useful horse too especially judging by his first hurdle win. Won comfotably that day and was up agianst a good novice field especially given the context of northern races. Alfie Fits, nice flat horse and subsequent hurdle winner with a time that compares favourable to binocular on the same card, solent another nice flat sort who had started of his hurdle career well. Indeed even quite a lot of the beaten horses that day have ran with much credit since, suggesting even as far down as seventh there was substance to that first win. Lto he did run poorly and in some ways that is a worry for today given his likely short price. However the nature of that race didnt really suit him, he could just never settle having moved up in trip and its not surprising to see him back in trip today. That should help him settle better and if he does he could take some beating and defy a penalty, certainly based on his first race he should be able too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted December 20, 2008 Author Share Posted December 20, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Missed out one at Haydock: 12.50 Secret Tune 15 pts This was a decent animal on the flat, 93 rated, once placed in a group 3 at asc. Significantly though it was more of a stayer on the flat, or at least developed into that as shown by its third behind mahler in a 2m race at royal asc. and therefore the decision to move him up in trip today could be very important. Sometimes the more staying flat types can get away with 2m over hurdles but normallly they find their level better at an increased distance which this one has today. He did do well enough to win over 2m admittedly on a testing track on debut over hurdles when significantly backed and ahead of some useful types notably unfurled, a nice type on the flat who has since been good enough to chase home the highly regarded and very useful cockney trucker. Lto over 2m at asc he ran ok in fifth in what was at the time felt to be a useful race and I stand by that now after yesterdays events. However he just lacked that sharp turn of foot which meant when the pace increased late on in the race, he couldnt quite cope and looked one paced. Hence, the step up to 20f should help today, he has to defy a penalty but could well be good enough to do so and another factor is that the talented litle josh, also penalised, trainers form is open to question atm despite one winner last week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted December 23, 2008 Author Share Posted December 23, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 1555pts Returned 1261.73pts P/L -293.27 Yield -18.85% Strike rate 23.07% (24/104) Going to go for just one tomorrow and it will have to be at sp. Font 12.45 Solent 15 pts This horse was very useful on the flat, far more useful than these and indeed he won/dead heated for first in a listed staying contest. He looks a useful recruit over hurdles too. He made all to win very convincingly on his debut over hurdles. His second run wasnt too bad either. He finished third but that was in a good race, the winner admitedly has disappointed twice now since but the second alfie fits is a good horse who own a listed race afterwards and wasnt disgraced in a graded race. Even horses beaten some way in solent's last race have ran respectably since with the odd win/stroke a few seconds, the fourth, fifth and seventh being the horses in question. Another factor here is that Solent steps up slightly in trip, something which judging by flat style, ie. staying type should suit. Ground shouldnt be a problem either and wouldnt surprsie me at all if Solent has the class to defy a penalty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted December 26, 2008 Author Share Posted December 26, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 1570pts Returned 1261.73pts P/L -308.27 Yield -19.63% Strike rate 22.85% (24/105) Unfortunately just like the last couple of years Tottenham have a home game against Fulham on boxing day at an early time so wont be able to see the action live but some great action today. A bit annoying this morning because I got all set for an antepost selection, FPTP for the arkle only to see him a non runner today and possibly running instead tomorrow over a different trip so will leave that one for now. Kem 12.55 Font 7/2 var bog 15 pts Has to overcome a penalty here but might just be capable. This former useful flat performer really has found his way over hurdles, possibly helped by a breathing operation like so many of the nicholls horses. He was so impressive at chelt. a couple of starts back, showing a smart turn of foot to settle matters and run out an easy winner of a race that normally has a few in it better than their current marks. After that he went off a very short price in a really competitive race but really it was a mistake halfway through that race which nearly so him fall which ended his chance that day. He then was second lto which I felt was a fair run. He had to give alfie fits, good flat/hurdle horse 8 pounds and ultimately that was beyonf him but tahts not really a disagrace and alfie fits' ok run in a grade 2 afterwards indicates its class. Another factor about the last run was that it was a good time, equal of the time of binouclar on the same card so comparitively that compares well. There are a few interesting ones in here such as fairyland, star of angels but they have yet to win a race and hence theer might be a question mark about their temperament, Font for me. 1.30 The Market Man 7/4 var 15 pts Very talented horse. Clearly had troubles over the years but no denying his talent and class. He was good enough to be second in a grade 1 on his chase bow and then this season, started of with a very classy and cosy win in a grade 2. Received weight from the runner up but I dont think it would have mattered such was his class and superior ability that day, jumping and travelling ever so well. Indeed such is his class that Gold Cups and not RSA have been talked of with the feeling that given past troubles in getting fit, if he was to be fit for the fest. then put him in the big one as that might be the last chance to do so. That just tells of the regard he is held in and if he is in similar form to lto I think he can win today. 2.05 Snap Tie 11/2 boy bog 10 pts e.w Nice price this imo. Offers good e.w value and really I consider the win outright a real possibility. This is a very useful horse. He showed fair ability in bumpers but over hurdles he has prospered very much so. Last season he always ran with credit at chelt. incluidng at the fest when a good third when behind binocular given him weight and that was on ground which wouldnt have been ideal. He started of this season with a good win here to defeat katchit. Admittedly that win doesnt look as good now since Katchit hasnt performed since but it was still a good win at the time especially considering snap tie's relative inexperience. Indeed despite that win his hurdling still at times was a bit untidy on a couple of flights so that definitely is an area that can be improved upon. He seems to have quite a few positives for him today too. The ground should be very much appreciated today, as should the sharp course and the break, he seems better when fresh and he has had a good lay off after his win lto. Punjabi clearly respected but this quick horse might just have a bit too much of a sharo turn of foot for him. 2.40 Air Force One 17/2 can bog 10 pts e.w I would like Kauto Star to win but given the fact that he has lost 3/4 races and it is jsut suggested he maybe is declining a fraction, I seek alternatives. VPU is not one of them, not at his price at all. I have never regarded the horse absolute top top class and whilst he is consistent and good he does have limitations. The trip is also a question mark and even though I can see him getting it, he has to improve for it from his general 2m which I never considered world beating. Also he has had a fair lay off now from his last run and for a horse I always see as better with racing, Im not sure that is ideal. For Our Vic and Imperial Commander I have trainer form doubts so i have plumped for Air Force One who I believe has ideal conditions and possibly is improving all the time like so many second season chasers. Air Force One I think is better on good ground hence his second in the hennessey was a very creditible effort on ground not quite suitable. His results also suggest he loves going right handed which is required here. I thought the way he thrashed a decent field at punch. last season in a novice race was very classy at a track quite similar to kem., he struck me as a king george possible after that win. I think the flattish 3m also suits as I have a suspicion that he is often vulnerable late on over just that touch further, his pace has always been under rated for me. Whether he is truly good enough is open to question somewhat but today we will find out and I have a suspicion that he is good enough to place at least and if KS is not at his best, it might be even better. 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WoodyTHFC Posted December 27, 2008 Author Share Posted December 27, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 1640pts Returned 1287.98pts P/L -352.02 Yield -21.46% Strike rate 22.93% (25/109) Fancy a few today. Chep 2.05 Mon Mone 7/1 can bog 7.5 pts e.w High Chimes 10/1 can bog 7.5 pts e.w Two for me in this epic contest. Mon Mone ran very well in this last year only to be denied by HG who he has a nice pull with today for 4 lengths. His form never really got going last season but he has bounced back strongly this term. He was a good second fto, and lto he won a competitive race at chelt., showing typical staying attributes to fend of SDM's return to form with the pair a good way clear which really encourages. He appreciates a test like this and really should be there abouts. High Chimes is another major stayer. He ran a couple of really good races last season, one when staying on strongly behind cloudy lane and comply or die at hay. a race that worked out well given what the 1,2 were to do in the future. He then on his last start of the season won well at the fest. again showing typical staying attributes. He started thi season with an encouraging enough run in the hennessy when plugging onto be sixth and he should be there abouts today with conditions in his favour, one slight doubt is whether the handicapper has found him out now. Kem 1.05 Starluck 11/10 spo 15 pts Very nice horse this one. Actually showed some ability on the flat but its been over hurdles where he has shined in the famous rough quest colours. He has won both his races and both of them in fair style. Fto was more of a narrow success but still a success as he saw off tanaku but his run after that was more impressive. He won very easily that day beating a former useful flat horse in style, indeed the increased distance between him and the third suggest natural improvement from run 1 to 2 and there is no reason he cant do something similar today and defy a penalty. 3.15 Twist Magic 2/1 var bog 15 pts Good race this and I believe Twist magic has near perfect conditions. He is always better on a flatter 2m, ideally good ground, going right handed no problem at all indeed possibly an advantage and with a strong pace in the race that really ought to suit his natural cruising speed. Where he has struggled in the past has often been on softer ground, undulating tracks and he hasnt looked the same horse. however at somewhere like here where he has already won, ain. where he was awesome as a novice, punch. he comes into his own and his grade 1 wins show that. Lto he was still going well enough behind MM and for me would have been second in that race but for his late fall, if that hasnt taken too much of a toll, then I believe he can give weight to these and beat them in what look like perfect conditions. Weth 12.15 Teenage Idol 2/1 spo 15 pts Johnson/Reagan combo. have a lot of rides today and could get of to a smart start at the first. Tennage Idol showed good ability in bumpers in different conditions, from an early win on heavy ground to a good fourth on good ground in a traditionally strong bumper on SGN day. I felt he also showed some good ability on his first hurdle start. He was starting of perhaps slightly strangely at a trip of 2m 6f which seemed a challenge for just his first start over hurdles considering he was quick enough to win a bumper over 2m. He showed up quite well and ended up second but never totally convinced he saw out that trip that day, he pulled hard early on as well which didnt help. However the form he showed was still fair enough, the third who he was clear off, notably has won sicne and whilst improving to do so, is offically rated 118 so for teenage idol to be clear of that one reads fairly especially when you consider the top weight here is officially only a 120 horse. Bogside Theatre is also respected but she was below par on debut and she actually might want a trip, Teenage Idol should imo appreciate this drop back in trip and with any improvement should be hard to beat today. 1.20 Crow Wood 4/1 var bog 15 pts Talented hurdler this one, a former grade 2 winner and could be a useful jumper. He has had two runs so far and whilst a look at the form figures doesnt encourage too much with a 6 then a F that doesnt tell the whole story. Fto he simply failed to get home over further having still travelled ok before stamina became an issue. Then he fell at san. but for the majority of that race before that point he looked to still be going pretty well and that was in really good company such as free world and gauvain, before his fall. As long as that hasnt left too much of a mark he should figure today if he gets roudn especially as a couple in here may need further and degas art the talented johnson horse is not the most reliable. One slight worry is Im not sure if the trainer is bang on atm and his solent didnt run that well the other day but possibly too soon to make concrete judgements with his small stable yet. 3.00 Tidal Fury 13/2 var 7.5 pts e.w I certainly feel at some stage this is a plot horse, the problem being its not easy to find out when the plot is going to be. Murphy is a strange trainer to read but his runners run well yesterday including a couple of winners to indicate some sort of return to form. Tidal Fury, formerly a good hurdler, also showed some ability over fences with some wins in his novice season and then was a 140+ horse, now high mid 120s. He does need soft ground and even softer/heavy if possible so should like the soft ground today even if it could be even softer for him ideally. He showed enough in two runs this season on ground not as suitable as this to suggest some form and with conditions beginning to get more to his liking and the trainer possibly getting into some form, he is the selection. Leop 1.20 Thyne Again 4/1 var 15 pts This is a weak grade 1 imo and in the end I have gone for the second season chaser thyne again. Thyne Again possibly needs a trip now but then again this whole field could do with further than 2m imo or has question marks. Mansony was tried at a former trip and didnt exactly suggest he needs a drop in trip now, certainly his last runs at 2m he needed all of it plus more, natal isnt the most reliable and is on an inflated mark imo due to a good ride more than anything else at punch. last season, big zeb actually beat thyne again over 2m last season on good ground but hasnt had a run of late which doesnt inspire, Watson Lake actually put up a good 2m performance earlier in this season but again ideally is raced over further now. So clearly a few question marks over a lot of these especially with the trip. Thyne Again did win recently over 2m and whilst it was a weak race at least it proved he can do it now which some of these Im not certain can do so. His form last season as novice was solid at times, grade 1 winner in the ire. arkle and not disgraced in the real arkle. According to the figures he has it to find but Im not that sure about that myself, I think a few of these are on inflated marks especailly at this trip, these days. Thyne Again is the pick. 1.55 Hurricane Fly 10/11 pp bog 15 pts Very classy horse this one, indeed one of the class novice hurdlers around so far. Hurricane Fly is yet another smart flat performer running over hurdles. He performed well in grade 2/3s and previously had beaten literato who went onto win a champ. stakes. His early hurdle form looks useful too, he won a grade 3 in france and won a grade 1 nicely lto beating donnas palm who is back today. However a noticeable thing about the win lto was that it was managed despite a slow pace which ideally would have suited the runner up more or least had the potential to do so. Cousin Vinny in third did no harm to the form yesterday and his mere presence encouarges the standard of the form lto even if it was a messy race. Hurrican Fly looks a smart horse already and can add another grade 1 here. 3.00 Chelsea Harbour 20/1 sky 7.5pts e.w 5 places. A difficult task here for chelsea harbour to be top weight and win here with so many in the field and quite a few possible/probable improverers. However one thing chelsea harbour will do, is like conditions, he thrives in these kinds of races generally and whilst possibly requiring even more of a test, these races normally ride hard and require a stayer to win. Chelsea Harbour also is not disasterously handicapped imo especially with conditions fair for him. Looking back to his win at punch. last season, he gave arbour supreme a stack of weight to beat him well despite jumping right handed that day. Now whilst mullins' horse has improved since, he now runs of a similar mark to CH which is remarkable given the weight CH gave him that day and still beat him with. Even his GN run was good for a long way before surprisingly for a horse supposedly stamina made, he didnt quite get home with the jockey indicating afterwards he may have made too much of him. He has put some wins together already so far this season over hurdles and fences and he should give his running and whilst it is possible he may find one or two too good, he shouldnt be that far away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted December 28, 2008 Author Share Posted December 28, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 1790pts Returned 1400.62pts P/L -389.38 Yield -21.46% Strike rate 23.52% (28/119) Got a few more winners yesterday then late but still down for the day. 3 shortish ones today. Leop 1.30 Trafford Lad 10/11 15 pts Classy horse this one, showed it over hurdles and has since made the transition to fences well. He has won all 3 races now, first one a bit controversially but impressively since then. He beat todays rival siegemaster two starts back although that form is dodgy to a point given the saddle slipped on siegemaster. However there was nothing dodgy about the grade 1 win lto, where he outstayed FPTP who looked like a 2m to me on that evidence whilst perhaps the more natural 3m chaser, Tarfford Lad went past with the useful Rare Bob in 3 and the rest some way back. The doubt is the trip as it is an increase to 3m but for me it is well worh ago especially with chelt. in mind for the rsa, he looks a stayer to me and for me if he sees out the trip today I think he wins because he is the class act in this field for me. 2.35 Neptune Collonges 6/4 cor 15 pts I thought this would be nearer evens or odds on myself. NC is a massively improved chaser and deservedly 3 on GC markets. He came into his own last season towards the end with 3 good performances on the trot, one when giving lumps of weight at winc., then a top performance in the GC to be 3 and not that far of the winner, certainly not far of KS as he just failed to get back up for second. After that he ended the season with a romp at punch. for the second year running. Certainly full of stamina so he will be up there today and hence the listener shouldnt poach too easy a time up front. A slight doubt would be the lack of a run given perhaps an unispiring record fto each season but I have no doubt Nicholls would have prepared him for this and hence he should still be sharp enough, he wouldnt send him over otherwise. ED would be a danger if at his best which cant be gauranteed but NC is an improved horse and he can win this one for me. Catt 2.25 Palomar 9/4 var bog 15 pts A formely useful hurdler this one, nothing of the ability of say Arcalis in this field, but still fairly good as shown by a real route at kem. this time last year and a decent effort in the imperial cup. What was impressive about this one was his debut win over fences, jumped well enough that day and in beating naiad du misselot, a coral cup winner over hurdles and for me a real murphy darkhorse plot for the jewson this year, he showed a good level of form fto over fences. Form of those even further back has been fair since with the 3 winning since and the 4,5 both placing since. A slight concern I would have is that perhaps the trainer hasnt done that much over the christmas period especially compared to johnson who has main rivals arcalis and the penalty which palomar has to give to arcalis but then again the penalty is there for a reason, arcalis is an unknown jumper and the benefit of experience palomar has could just tell. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted December 29, 2008 Author Share Posted December 29, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 1835pts Returned 1449.37pts P/L -385.63 Yield -21.01% Strike rate 23.77% (29/122) Strange day yesterday, small profit. Actually one of those days yet again when could so easily have had 3/3 yet just the one winner which won so easily, seems to be the way atm, the ones that are winning are doing so with comfort. As for bets later, going to do the write ups now with the prices later if I get a chance otherwise it will be SP. Leop 1.55 River Liane 7.5 pts e.w A bit speculative this one but I think there are question marks over some of these in this field and this might just be an improving and unexposed outsider who could place at the least. I have some question marks over some of the more fancied runners here. For me Aitmatov needs further and imo so to these days do Brave Inca and Hardy Eustace and besides they are not going to be improving this stage. The big 2 I see are Sublimity and Sizing Europe. However both of them have had problems in the past and have not been finishing their races strongly at all. Sizing europe was devastating at the start of the year and was cruising in the CH and the run lto and yet both times didnt see his run through properly. The first of those times something went wrong and possibly lto it was a sign of a lack of a run but even still does raise question marks, as does stories of another recent injury setback and it is a short price after all. If he goes through with his effort I think he wins this but I cant be sure he will atm. As for Sublimity he rarely goes through with his effort which doesnt totally surprise me as he is a miler from the flat and sometimes they can be a bit of a chance at getting the trip especially on more testing tracks. Apart from his CH win which was in a slightly mysterious in and out race in terms of pace, I have lost count of the times he has travelled into a race as the likely winner only to not really find that much and weaken come the line. Sure there at times have been some excuses such as fitness but Im also starting to come to the conclusion it is him and that he doesnt truly get the trip. With HE here and also BI, there will be no let up in the pace here or at least there shouldnt be a hence I can see another ocassion where Sublimity looms up onlynot to really find as much as he suggests. Hence with these doubts I have gone for River Liane who looks set to be a fair price. He hacked up on his ire. debut when treated well before breaking a blood vessel at the fest. so best to ignore that run. However he bounced back to win a decent contest lto and he looks the sort to continue to improve and whilst on figures he has 2 stone to find, the gulf in class might just not be as much as suggested. Newb 12.30 Planet of Sound 15 pts Backed this one for his chase debut on the back of some solid efforts over hurdles. He ran ok I thought. Only fourth, but it was a good race and he did have to give weight to the extremely talented free world and the third who was a good sort over hurdles. Clearly free world has boosted the form since, as has the second who won easily afterwards so it looks a good contest. Planet of Sound should improve a lot for the experience of his first chase run, he also wasnt knocked about on his first run as it became apparent he couldnt win so there shpuld be more left anyway and whilst this is a good race, I believe he has a fair chance. 1.35 Money Trix 15 pts Finally get to see this one run again. Been waiting an age and in fact he has had just one run in nearly two years. He certainly is well regarded prospect and that comes after his hurdle days when he finished second in a grade 1 at ain. behind BJK. He seems more of a natural chaser and it wasnt a huge surprise to see him win on his chase debut up north after a years wait when he won very cosily last year and earned quotes for the RSA afterwards before not running gain with some sort of problem once again. Indeed the fact he is quoted for the GC after just one chase run, speaks volumes, clearly well regarded and talented. Gone to Lunch and Mr Pointment will most likely make this a test but this completely unexposed runner could be anything, clearly he can win fresh and he might do so again. 2.45 Diamond Harry 15 pts Real nice propect this one, one of the best novice hurdlers I have seen this season along with Cousin Vinny and Hurricane Fly. He had obvious class in bumpers to win the same valuable bumper race two years on the trot and he has continued his class into bumpers. He hacked up on debut, making Keki Buku (good bumper horse himself) look ordinary. He then stepped up in class and trip to win pretty easily again at chelt. and looked to have a fair bit in hand too, not sure if that form can be reversed today. Massasoit improved massively from last seasons form to win and completely hack up lto but in Diamond Harry he is facing potentially a completely different kettle of fish. Muss 12.10 Broadway Star 15 pts Going for a horse ridden by rose dobbin here. Broadway star remains a novice so far but has shown enough to suggest a win might not be too far away. Indeed he already recorded one win over bumpers having been second previously on his debut. Looking at his hurdle form so far, he has twice been second. Fto this season he travelled quite before not quite finding as much as he suggested he would have. Lto I thought he ran another solid race ahead of some of todays rivals, indeed I felt it was step up from his first race and personally I think he can confirm the placings with his rivals who oppose again today. The horse he lost to that day from the johnson yard was a huge purchase and clearly is well thought of so no disgrace there and it might just be a chance to put that right today and record a first hurdle win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted December 29, 2008 Author Share Posted December 29, 2008 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 River Liane 16/1 var bog Planet of Sound 11/5 spo Money Trix 5/2 sj bog Diamond Harry 8/11 var bog Broadway Star 7/4 wh bog. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted December 30, 2008 Author Share Posted December 30, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted January 1, 2009 Author Share Posted January 1, 2009 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Chelt 1.05 Noir Et Vert 10/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Considered both rambling minister and character building who i have put up both this season but eventually gone for Noir Et Vert. Undoubtedly the trainers form is a major factor here, the yard can be very quiet at times but suddenly they hit purple patches and are worth following and that has happened recently with a stack of winners. Noir Et Vert has shown in the past he has the ability. Two seasons back he had a couple of nice novice successes before jsut behind denied in a competive race at the punch. fest. Last season he ran a good race when fourth at the fest. and looked a future big field handicap winner in waiting. It didnt happen on his last two starts but with his trainer in much better form and a couple of pounds even lower in the weights, he could go close today. 1.40 Kicks For Free 6/4 var bog 15 pts A horse of real ability this one. One good enough to be third in a chelt. bumper, last season he progressed greatly over hurdles to be second in the coral cup and so far he looks to have a good future over fences. Fto this season he was most impressive at ain., with an easy win and even his run lto was creditible enough. Moved up in class, he was second behind the talented the market man when clear of the rest and I dont see much shame in that especially given that kicks for free had to give 7 pounds to the winner. Conditions today look fine and he sets a strong standard. 2.10 Hobbs Hill 17/2 sj bog 7.5 pts e.w Comes off a long lay off today and a crunching fall lto but as long as that hasnt left too much of a mark, then he has a solid chance today off 150 in a handicap. A plus certainly is that he has proved that he is more than capable of winning as a fresh horse and has demonstrated that in the past. Last season he won four races and was most impressive at times. His last two grade 2 wins were good, he took care of silverburn at newb. and then he beat battlecry giving 6 pounds and he went onto that season run creditibly at chelt. and ain. so to win as well as he did against battlecry is no mean feat. Ground should be just ok and if he is ready enough fto, which he has been before admittedly in weaker contests, then chance especially considering he could be a Ryan Air horse. 2.45 Ballydub 9/4 var bog 15 pts Been an improved performer this season. Firstly at the track he was second when clear of the rest when behind the handicap good thing, punchestowns. Indeed that run looks better when considered what the easy winner, who probably could have beaten by 6 lengths + that day, did afterwards. Even using a line when ballydub received a stone, it could be argued that ballydub wouldnt have been massively disgraced in the grade 1 at asc. that punhc. romped home in, certainly top 5 prospects. Ballydub himslef went on after his good second. He won easily at newb. seeing out the trip well having travelled so easily like the best horse that day and ended up an easy winner. Obviously the handicap has seen that and reacted by pushing him up to 138 today and there are lines with horses who ballydub has been in front of at times such as pennek, dont push it who ballydub may have a battle with. However such is Ballydub's progression, he may well atill be good enough to win again today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted January 3, 2009 Author Share Posted January 3, 2009 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 1970pts Returned 1523.28pts P/L -446.72 Yield -22.67% Strike rate 23.66% (31/131) My complete lack of form at chelt. continues this season, 25 selections and just 1 place to show for it. Those kind of figures completely ruin a season. Anyway fancy 3 today at san. if its on and another ante post fancy. Dee Ee Williams 16/1 var 12.5 pts e.w for the supreme novices. DEW runs today in the grade 1 and I fancy him to run well. The trainer has been really bullish about this one describing him as a horse of huge ability and for whom their hasnt been a horse to get him off the bridle at home. The trainer knows a good novice hurdler when he sees one having gone so close in this race with straw bear in 2006. His form looks very solid too and strikes as an improver too. His win at chelt., showing ever important course form, has been boosted massively since with the 3,4,5,6,8 and 10th winning since and many of them decisive victories. After that, DEW won what seemed a good race at asc., getting up late on to win. Three pulled clear that day and the presence of shoreacres amongst them gives substance to the form given that ones top bumper form (4th in fest. bumper) and his early hurdle form (easy win over some good sorts.) Following from that he suffered a first defeat but a very marginal one to a nice sort from king's yard in what again seemed a good graded event at asc. They didnt go the strongest of gallops that day (even though the time actually compares favourably with binocular's grade 1 win the next day) and one gets the feeling DEW could do with a stronger pace, something which he may get tomorrow with a couple of confirmed front runners and certainly would get that in the frantic supreme at the fest. If he gets that stronger pace, this horse could well be seen to even greater effect and for me 16/1 may turn out to be a fair price. Cousin Vinny and Hurricane Fly have both posted up impressive performances already and could well be targetted for this race, cousin vinny for sure but DEW strikes me as a nice sort, who seems to be improving, looks set to be targetted for this race and could well be shorter than 16/1 especially if he wins the grade 1 later today. Stakes upped for the grade 1. San 1.35 Helium 15 pts SP Helium is trained by gifford who has a strong team of novice hurdlers this year and is unbeaten this term in this country. It has posted two good wins so far and could well defy a penalty to go in again today. On its uk debut it gave a stack of weight to beat the 120 rated sainglend and thats a fair victory given sainglend managed to finish third behind big TH fancy Zaynar and subsequent grade 1 winner walk on. Indeed on a parallel of that form it gives psi a fair bit to find with helium today even if improved for its first win. Helium has won since as well and done it well to defeat tanaku, tanaku being a nice sort who once got pretty close to TH second fav. starluck, so the formlines a strong for helium. A slight doubt maybe about the ground as it may well be quicker ground faced than previously but he coped well enough with good ground in france and if he copes with the ground today, he can defy the penalty and win today. 2.40 Dee Ee Williams 2/1 var bog 20 pts See above. Essentially this is a nice horse who is rated extremely highly by his trainer, his formlines look strong, chelt. win with loads of form boosts, similarly his asc. win looks good especially given the presence of the talented shoreacres. He lost lto but very narrowly to an unexposed sort from King who I beleive has improved a lot since being beaten by mahonia at exe. and didnt run to form that day. The slightly in out pace that day at asc. probably didnt help a horse who is seen to better effect with a more out and out gallop either. He should get something more like that today with the two outsiders both showing the desire to make all previously, as has mahonia and the stiff finish late on should be right up his street. Bold bid expected. 3.50 Prince Taime 10/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Very competitive looking handicap, could make a claim for half a dozen in this one but prince taime is lightly raced and probably a horse who there has not been the best seen of yet. PT was fairly impressive in a couple of wins last season with one notable success over the very talented ouzbeck, a good chaser and 140+ rated hurdler, a formline that suggests 126 isnt the harshets rating of all time. This season he put up a fair effort fto when behind a couple of useful sorts in khyber kim and helens vision and staying on well having been given quite a fair bit to do. Similar hold up tactics could quite work lto at asc. in a slightly unusual tactical race behind the two trail blazers although his 8th wasnt that bad a run. Significantly though he was johnson's choice that day even though the yard had the majorly gambled on eventual second. That suggests he is quite well thought of and I can also see the stiff finish suiting his hold up tactics for chances of a place at the least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted January 3, 2009 Author Share Posted January 3, 2009 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Another ante post selection: Roll Along 110 2.5 pts to win the grand national and 22 2.5 pts to place betf. This race was so good to me when picking the winner at 150 on the exchanges and going for a similar type of bet here. Now as always with an ante post selection, its questionable if it runs but if it does, then Roll Along could make a mokery of a huge price 3 digit price here. There is actually even more on offer on the exchanges waiting to be matched and 33/1 with conventional bookies. Roll Along is a tremendously progressive young second season chaser and strikes me as a sort who could run well in the race. Certainly he strikes as an out and out stayer and he showed that last year in the classy RSA behind Albertas Run to make rapid late ground to be second. That race has a good record for producing national winners and added to it last year with Comply or Die. To stay on in top grade 1 quality like that shows an abundance of stamina. Roll Along produced a fine run fto this season to beat the talented Air Force One, once again thriving off a strong pace to pounce late on. That added to a tremendous record fto so if connections did leave him fresh for the race, that would be further interestig. After his asc. win he ran creditibly in a 5 runner race behind barbers shop, staying up late on once again and suggesting once again he would thrive with a marathon trip, the in out nature of that race probably didnt suit. Currently off 157, that seems at times a stiff mark but given he has achieved that mark without getting a real marathon trip yet, its very possible he could improve further for a marathon trip like the GN. Also he is just a second season chaser so further improvement cannot be ruled out. Plus the possible presence of Denman would mean horses in late 150s+ could ened up with an unusual lovely racing weight. Even if Denman doesnt run, Exotic Dancer has been mooted and that would put a lot of horses hoping to squeeze into the GN at the bottom such as Character Building and Butlers Cabin facing a difficult task some way out of the handicap. Whether connections of Roll Along go for the GN this year is open to question but they already know what its like to win it through the Corbiere 1983 win and they may get a lovely racing weight for an improving horse, who seems set to improve further when granted with a marathon trip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted January 11, 2009 Author Share Posted January 11, 2009 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Been very frustrating of late that there has been so little jumps action. Anyway there should be a good card at Leop. later. Leop 1.45 Fingeronthepulse 2/1 wh bog 15 pts Like the look of Fingeronthepulse here. This horse proved his class when winning the jewson last year and it looked a good jewson too judging by the fact he beat barbers shop who has proved his class this season and could be a ryan air horse if not a GC longshot. Indeed at chelt that day I though that FOTP was worth more than the winning margin as he idled when in front and that enabled Barbers Shop to get closer to him than once looked. After that he didnt produce his form at punch. before returning to form fto this season when proving he had enough class to drop back in trip and win a grade 3 quite easily. Noland was too good for him lto but there is no disgrace in that certainly as noland won a grade 1 afterwards. As for today, 2m 5f looks about an ideal trip, any further than that would concern me. He runs off 144 which I believe is fair, the top weight for me may need further too and overall FOTP might have that bit extar in hand here over some of these. 2.20 Dancing Tornado 14/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pts ew 5 places A very frustrating horse this one but a talented one. His recent win record says quite a bit about him in that his victory lto was his first win in over 10 starts, far too often he seems to find trouble for himself in running. However he is the sort of horse who may well find the nature of the race suiting. The end to end gallop will sort horses who can travel well on the back of that and dancing tornado fits that bill along with the likely fav. it has to be said. Dancing Tornado won lto despite finding trouble in running and proved the drop back to 2m is no problem and that doesnt surprise me for a horse who can travel like this one. He has a 4 pound penalty for that win. Undoubtedly he will need some luck in running but as I said earlier, he should be able to travel well today, his recent form is good and at the worst he should be in contention for a place at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted January 12, 2009 Author Share Posted January 12, 2009 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 2000pts Returned 1557.03pts P/L -442.97 Yield -22.14% Strike rate 24.066% (32/133) Will have to be sp tomorrow. Fake 2.50 Kia Kaha 15 pts Have put this one up its last two times and with two contrasting outcomes. Two starts back he won very cosily indeed under a patient ride and looked impressive like the type who could go onto better things for whom any kind of extended trip which he slightly has today wouldnt be a problem. Lto he fell three out when still looking some danger at taun. Significantly though, the three he was with that day when some way clear of the rest have boosted the form since. The eventual winner hercomesthetruth has won nicely as has the useful pressgang who was second, so that race at taun. which kia kaha was very much part of before falling, looks strong form. Looking at todays contest, it wont be easy conceding weight to the fairly useful no panic although I feel the greater threat could be from pop, for whom there is very little between himself and kia kaha on official ratings. However Kia Kaha impressed me two starts back and I thought was a major player lto before his exit, if he gets round today, I think he maybe tough to beat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted January 12, 2009 Share Posted January 12, 2009 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 nice winner Woody, this one won easy under a good McCoy ride. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted January 13, 2009 Author Share Posted January 13, 2009 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 2015pts Returned 1590.78pts P/L -424.22 Yield -21.05% Strike rate 24.62% (33/134) Cheers Bowles. Been a bit of a struggle of late but the few that have been winning have been doing it easily. Just one today, sp again. Folk 2.20 Silk Affair 15 pts Think this may just be a good race with some likley improvers in here and some unknowns from biggish yards. However the one I like most just ahead of psi, is silk affair. Silk Affair was a good horse on the flat, once optimistically put in the ire. oaks but a 90 odd rated horse and something with that flat ability warrents some respect over hurdles. She also proved she could act in soft conditions which she should get today. Her hurdling debut I thought showed some promise. She ended up plugging on into midfield with the so impressive winner starluck romping home. However one gets the impression that the race will work out in time, there were some strong yards represented and that first run by silk affair showed promise for the future. She should be able to build on that today plus the way she plugged suggested todays slightly extended trip shouldnt be a huge problem. Interestingly psi also has formlines on his debut, where he ran a similar style to silk affair, with another TH fav. zaynar so it will be worth looking at to see how the two compare today but Im just giving the edge to Silk Affair, the filly who gets weight and whilst its never easy in such circumstances, I feel she has a decent chance today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted January 14, 2009 Author Share Posted January 14, 2009 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 2030pts Returned 1590.78pts P/L -439.22 Yield -21.63% Strike rate 24.08% (33/135) Second yesterday. Three more today but should come back before the off for some prices. Newb 1.20 Planet of Sound 15 pts I put up Planet of Sound lto and was very impressed. He jumped pretty well from the front and won with some ease with only the second remotely close. That was a nice progression from his first chase run behind free world and showed once again his liking for the newbury track. Today he possibly faces a tougher task. He will have to give weight to a horse like French Opera who was second in a grade 2 lto, greenbridge who I dont think we have seen the best of over a fence yet and song of songs who hasnt jumped a fence yet competitively but could still be very useful and has often been highly regarded. However POS was impressive to me last year, I have often felt he has been held in high regard by the Hobbs team and he might be good enough to win agains at his favoured track. 1.55 Mad Max 15 pts Cracking race, class 4 on paper but for me this could be a graded race, especially from the perspective of the front 4 all of whom have impressed me this season. Cockney Trucker for example ran well in such a hot race on his hurdle bow before winning lto. He surely will apreciate the added distance today and is a real threat. Shoreacres too brings classy bumper form and hurdle form, very impressive on debut in a race that has worked out well and lost little in defeat lto. However the one I have gone for is the huge Mad Max, reportedly one of the biggest horses currently around. This one also had smart bumper form before winning on his hurdle debut when the front two were some way clear. He hurdled pretty impressively that day especially for a horse of his size and the horse he was clear with and just held off, karadak, boosted the form tremendously aftrewards with a good win at chelt. over the talented mahonia. Clearly Mad Max is naturally very good and whilst he is in a good race here, he might just have enough natural ability to overcome some good rivals. 2.30 Not Left Yet 15 pts Bit of a dark horse here. Not Left Yet leads the weights off 125 but such a mark may seem quite lenient for a horse always held in high regard and placed in strong company at times (lto he went off a single figure price for the WN.) However the most interesting thing for me is that it runs after a huge absence of 270+ days, for some horses that will be a problem but quite the opposite for this one. This one seems to thrive when fresh and has a notably good record when running fto, the last 3 times he has won fto for the season. Added to this is that the pipe team may have just found some form again after a drop in form before christmas, they have won 3 races on the trot now and the way they backed the horse who beat silk affair yesterday suggested they knew they were back to some kind of better form. Market could also tell a story with this potentially leniently handicapped horse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted January 14, 2009 Author Share Posted January 14, 2009 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 POS 13/8 var bog MM 4/5 pp bog NLY 8/1 wh bog note 7.5 pts e.w Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted January 14, 2009 Author Share Posted January 14, 2009 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 2075pts Returned 1657.16pts P/L -417.84 Yield -20.13% Strike rate 25.36% (35/138) Two winners yesterday and the market certainly did tell the story on Not Left Yet. Will have to be SP's tomorrow. Taun 2.50 Big Earned Fran 15 pts Decent little race this with Busker Royal bringing handicap form to the mix and a couple of others who are notworthy, not least a bunch of Pipe horses. Btw Im backing Pipe's again now after his poor spell before christams, due to a couple of winners of late even if NLY was very below par yesterday. BEF showed so much promise in a bumper last year when winning well and earning good quotes for the festival bumper afterwards. He ended up going off just 10/1 for that fest. bumper and whilst he didnt run all that well for his now new trainer (Pipe), he established himself as a horse of promise. Then on his hurdle bow I thought he was in a process of running a big race before falling in such a hot race at chelt. which I have mentioned here loads of times before. I dont know what would have happened had he stayed up that day lto but he looked likely to contend at least and the mere fact he was doing so suggests obvious ability as did his bumper level. On paper one may think that he isnt Pipe's first choice today with Scu. elsewhere but I believe that is due to the owner of BEF not wanting Scu. on his horses for some reason to do with Osana (Dont have a clue why though?) As it happens it means a valauble three pounds can be claimed and that means the two penalised horses have to give a fair few pounds to BEF who if fit enough after a little break, is dangerous today. Lud 1.40 The Package 15 pts Another Pipe runner and in many senses a battle of trainers who have been in poor form. Pipe who as I pointed out earlier maybe coming out of it and NTD who still seems right in it and to such an extent I cant be having any of his horses yet even though KK looks a fascinating recruit to chasing. Given that I give preference to the package. He was an ok hurdler who had some good runs at times behind planet of sound, winning once at newb. and only losing to punchestowns by 2 lengths once even though he gave him 10 pounds and whilst henderson's clearly has improved since then, it still reads as an interesting piece of hurdle form. Also significant is his chase debut at chelt. during a time when the yard where quiet. he finished a more than respectful third that day despite going right handed a few times. The move to a right handed track today should benefit from that evidence and whilst the form of his first chase run could have worked out better, he looks to have some solid claims today with his trainer seemingly in better form than previously unlike a chief rival? 3.40 Dancingwithbubbles 15 pts Useful bumper performer this one in her own grade, won a couple of times and was second in a listed race. Therefore it was possibly a bit disappointing that she couldnt win when odds on on her hurdling debut when just fourth. However I felt she lost little in defeat after that when she seemingly stepped up behind the very talented carole's legacy who has form in both top bumper and hurdle races, she was some clear of the rest that day after that performance and suggested she has a race in her and it could well be tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted January 16, 2009 Author Share Posted January 16, 2009 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 2120pts Returned 1684.16pts P/L -435.84 Yield -20.55% Strike rate 25.53% (36/141) Chep 1.30 King Fontaine 1/2 var bog 15 pts Has been moved into a skinny price but appears to be the classish act of the field on what he has done so far. Firstly he was good enough to be third in a bumper behind cockney trucker when staying on noticeably well. Then he ran in a similar style to be fourth in a bumper ane establish himself as a horse who seemingly would need a trip over hurdles. Indeed on his hurdle debut he ran a decent third in a race that nicholls has used to blood a good one or two before. The winner has nicely boosted that form since. Judging by that run, he should appreciate and even further step up in trip as he looks a stayer, ground slightly slower than faced on before but if he handles it ok, loooks likely to be tough to beat. Catt 1.40 Argento Luna 9/4 var bog 15 pts Reasonably talented mare. Showed that in bumpers at var. times including when fifth in ain. bumper during GN meet. Has also shown that she can transfer that to hurdles with a very cosy win fto over a decent if not awkward sort in gloucester. After that she ran into the good over sixty who beat perhaps a below par AL easily. However lto she looked to have returned to something like her real self. She stayed on well when possibly given too much to do to be second, front three clear and the winner boosted the form yesterday. She is raised just 3 pounds for that which seems more than fair and she seems lightly enough weighted of 116 to go close today with the increased distance looking likely to sort too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted January 17, 2009 Author Share Posted January 17, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted January 24, 2009 Author Share Posted January 24, 2009 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 2240pts Returned 1781.66pts P/L -458.34 Yield -20.46% Strike rate 25.51 % (38/149) Been awful at Cheltenham so far this season but hoping I can change that today. 2.35 Halcon Genelardais 11/4 var 15 pts I will have an eye Roll Along from a GN perspective although Im not certain at all connections are thinking that way atm. RA will like the likely test this looks like being but might just lack a touch of class for the race over one or two market principals plus he is unproven on heavy ground although soft ground is no problem. The one I have gone for is HG at the bottom who is not dissimilar to RA in that he essentially is all about stamina and that looks like being all important. Cheltenham is a testing track at the best of time but in heavy conditions it is going to be very tough to get home and that may hinder one or two of these, Tidal Bay, Nozic perhaps and even a more unlikely candidate in SDM who I feel may want better ground and strangely for a RSA winner Im not totally convinced by his complete stamina for 3+ miles especially on testing ground, thats just a wild theory though. Back to HG, he is favoured by the weight scale for this race and his form has been good and consistent for so long now. Not winning form but loads of top efforts in very competitive handicaps like the WGN and SGN and off top weight which puts it into perspective the runs he has produced. His seasonal appearance second behind Joe Lively was ok and he obviously is much better off today with that one today plus he overturned that form with another good run in the WGN despite running off 164 that day. He has very good form on soft ground, admittedly on heavy ground he didnt run as well once here but I get the impression that heavy ground will be no problem at all for him and by ensuring stamina will be much needed, that will only favour him. 3.10 Reve de Sivola 3/1 var bog 15 pts A massively improving horse this one who seemingly is getting better and better. On his debut he ran very moderately indeed before half staying on at chep. But since then he hasn’t stopped improving. He ran a real eye catching race to be a fast finishing third behind simarian here before then stepping up on that form again to do something similar when third at chep. Behind walk on but overturning simarian form. Given that simarian ran seemingly a similar kind of race from chelt. To chep that gives an indication of the improvement he has shown and a similar level of improved form would make him difficult to defeat today imo. Reve de Sivola will have to overturn form again with walk on who has improved this season but there are good grounds for thinking he can do so. For a start he gets a 7 pound pull for a closing 5 length defeat plus given the stamina test that this race will be for these 4 year olds and that RDS seemingly needs such a test over this trip at least, he should thrive on that. 3.45 Blazing Bailey 8/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w As many on here would know, I have followed BB for a long time but after its defeat lto to the classy Punchestowns I felt that there was hardly any way that form could be overturned even granting for perhaps the slightest of trip doubts about punchestowns on this track given very testing ground and that BB would be a better horse with the blinkers back on. However I have gone for him again but not necessarily from the win perspective, Punch. I feel will be very hard to beat if on song, but from an e.w perspective. Now that wont be easy as it is giving weight to horses like Big Bucks and Fair Along who have won recently albeit only in handicaps and in FA’s case with a very useful claim. However BB should find the conditions no problem at all, he won this race 2 years back beating ID by 4 lengths on heavy ground. Also the blinkers which worked last year in that they produced grade 1 and 2 wins, are back on which should stir him up after a couple of mediocre runs this season, one with a slow place totally against him and given lough derg and fair along that shouldnt happen today. The return to a track he likes should help and whilst I feel the win is unlikely if punch. Is on song, a place chance is a strong possibility particularly as Im not all that convinced by FA and BB handicap winning form. Don 12.35 Palomar 13/8 var bog 15 pts The trip here is a slight worry on testing ground but nonetheless going for Palomar who has been impressive on both his last two chase wins. He was a horse of some ability on the flat and over hurdles but could well be even better over fences. His last two wins have both been impressive, particularly lto when he won without really being asked a question. He slightly moves up in trip today and against horses like lightning strike for example who ideally need further and hence its an interesting clash from that perspective but he has ran over this trip on his hurdles days so its not a complete unknown although it lingers to me that he may just need 2m. The ground will be the fine and there is no denying he has been impressive this season and possibly he could be good enough for the arkle and if he is then he should go very close here and really win. 2.50 On Raglan Road 6/4 betfr 15 pts Nice horse this one for whom AP picks up the ride. The ground is absolutely fine for him and a clear advantage he seems to have today is that he returns to a trip that looks sure to be more to his suiting. At the start of the season he hacked up at hex. Over 3m and looked a pure stayer against what was poor opposition in truth. However after that he has moved back in trip and it hasn’t really suited and he has been seen to be a bit one paced at times as twice he has found one two good including junior lto. However I believe he can turn that form around. He has a 6 pound pull for 4 and a half lengths plus surely looks set to enjoy the return to 3m, not to mention his run lto was a in a steadily run race which also wouldn’t have really suited over an inadequate trip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted January 25, 2009 Author Share Posted January 25, 2009 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Will sort at the figures for yesterday after today. Not feeling so well today so going to be brief today. Leop 1.50 Forpadydeplasterer 5/2 lad 15pts Backed this at 20/1 for the arkle and feel he has a decent chance for that and today. Essentially I feel the trip could make out the best of him. He strikes me more as a 2m than say a 3m and lto for me he didnt get home having travelled well in a good contest over further. Ideally he will be better I feel in a bigger field with a stronger pace and that may be a bit of a concern today but he has a certain amount of class and should like the dream. 2.50 Muirhead 7/2 lad 15 pts Dont feel this is a brilliant race and the younger muirhead could upset some of the older veterans. He is proven on this ground whereas say a horse like sublimity Im nor sure will love this ground an imo if they go any pace on it he may not even get home, for me his run lto told me nothing as they went no pace and that was always going to favour sublimity's smart turn of foot. Muirhead was behind two of these lto but I felt the slow pace in that race didnt help him he still travelled well enough and just got done for a bit of pace at the key moment, a stronger pace to the race today should help him and he will like the ground unlike some others in this race. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted January 26, 2009 Author Share Posted January 26, 2009 Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 2330pts Returned 1781.66pts P/L -548.34 Yield -23.53% Strike rate 24.51% (38/155) My poor season to date continues. Crippling figures atm and I think I will have to look at my staking plans next season because 15 pts or 7.5 pts e.w for the daily posts is too much when things are not going right and doesn’t help the figures at all. As for the weekend just past I feel a bit aggrieved and it was symbolic of the way things have gone this season. Only BB was outclassed even if the very surprising lack of pace didn’t help. ORR fell when bang in contention and the four remaining ones were all second and frustrating seconds at that, I would imagine all would have traded odds on in running, I know HG was 1/33 but even the others. FPTP ran decent enough even though he didn’t win but I did feel that RDS and Muirhead could well have won with a better and more positive ride imo. Anyway will keep trying and hope I can restore a bit more credit to the season. Kem 1.00 Riverside Theatre 6/4 var bog 15 pts The top weight has been running well this season but faces a tough task from top weight. Looming near the bottom is a PN runner who seems to be highly thought of. However he was more of a stayer on the flat and hence 2m round kem. May test him for a turn of foot even granting for the fact that it will be somewhat of a test given the ground. RT seems to be highly regarded from the Henderson yard who aren’t quite in the brilliant form of earlier in the season but aren’t running that badly at all. He ran well in bumpers, winning two races and producing a decent third behind Diamond Harry on soft ground showing he can handle that ground. He then made a fairly useful first hurdle run when second behind copper bleu, he should come on quite a lot for that run and he has bold claims today. 2.05 Lodge Lane 10/11 var bog 15 pts Nice horse this one. Showed talent over bumpers and hurdles but always has given the impression he will be better as a chaser and if his first run was anything to buy then that could well be true. Won nicely at exe, proving going right handed is no problem whatsoever. He beat the stout stayer Wichita Lineman who has won since and the useful Pancake was back in fourth. Considering that he was his first chase run, improvement is very much possible and if he finds any sort if improvement he should be very tough to beat here, I think he will be tough to beat if jsut repeating his first run imo. Lud 4.00 Good Spirit 7/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Very much a dark horse this one. Formally with PN when he showed some ability over hurdles and fences. Indeed on his last run for PN he ran in the arkle and went off a similar price to his stablemate Twist Magic, indicating there wasn’t much between them and PN indicated as such before the race. Also interesting is the fact he is a half brother to Master minded. He then switched hands to a lesser known trainer and had a long time off so clearly he has had some kind problems and initially back over hurdles looked ordinary. However at a big price lto he ran on well and sort of eyecatchingly to be a useful second. That run suggested ability is more than still there and only two pounds higher for that run doesn’t seem unreasonable at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodyTHFC Posted January 31, 2009 Author Share Posted January 31, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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