Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009

[Aykay1]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Great price Woody :clap

[mileni4uk]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Should make a good Ryanair horse next year. Can't see him being competitive enough for the Queen Mum, but definite chance over 2m4f next year.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Including all ante post bets for chelt which are now settled. Staked 3270pts Returned 3522.97pts P/L +252.97 Yield +7.73% Strike rate 29.52% (62/210) Would have gone for Siegemaster in this but he is in the RSA instead now. 1.30 Kornati Kid 10 tote 5 places 15 pts e.w Best horse in the race officially and a real improver. Won his last two starts after a fourth behind WL which seems alright now. His win lto at weth was impressive ahead of a good sort in Will be Done. The trip is an unknown but so far in his career he has got better and the further he has gone and there is stamina on his side with regards pedigree. Hennessy 41 bet3 bog 5 places 7.5 pts e.w Been well regarded for a while and could prove his price is too big here. Had good form over hurdles at times and return to fences was profitable when a good winner at folk when significantly at a time when the stable were doing little. Beat subsequent winner who opposes today and the third and fourth that day are well regarded by connections. After that he jumped poorly on ground that may have been against him. Trip is an issue in the sense its the furthest he has been but by presenting so could still turn out to suit and at a price could go well. 2.05 Karabak 4.5 boy bog 20 pts Karabak recently a JP purchase looks a real battened hardened performer. He has improved so much since a defeat earlier this season and his last two wins including one at the course have been good. Indeed his improved effort to win at asc lto in what seems a good race at Somersby proved that to some extent yesterday, was a classy display and he relished the extra trip. MM beta him earlier this season but given K’s improvement that form maybe overturned along with the fact MM might have a bit too much speed for this trip possibly. Solid claims. Diamond Harry 5.5 bet3 bog 20 pts Drifted lately and to me he has drifted to a price Im interested in now. Devastating at times this season with an unbeaten record as he did have over bumpers also. He has put up some seriously top performances and it was only the last time he was off the bridle. He has his quirks and perhaps around here that isn’t ideal but he also is seriously classy and lto in some ways he wasn’t impressive but equally he did win and pull it out in the end plus the second goes for me in the wrong race and doesn’t oppose, maybe that says something about Karabak’s chance too. 2.40 Cooldine 5 sj bog 30 pts This horse struck me as a RSA winner when showing real guts to string up a quality sequence over hurdles last year. He has taken too fences too judging by his form. Impressive fto before a good third in a grade 1 over the wrong trip, 2m far too short for him. Then he beat FPTP, my arkle winner yesterday and I said before that race and after that race that cooldine for me was always going to win that staying battle between the class performers. FPTP was the speed horse and Cooldine the stayer and so it proved. Cooldine goes further up in trip today and for me will suit even better and Ruby significantly has chosen this over What a Friend who I wouldn’t have massive of cash on in a finish. Cooldine is battle hardened and can win this for me. An in form The Market Man may give him most to do. 3.20 Petit Robin w/o master minded 6.5 lad 15 pts Petit Robin can ‘win’ this race for second for me. Well chief is the biggest threat and the horse I consider a bigger threat to MM if there is a threat especially if anywhere near old form and being fresh could suit. However there is still a huge question mark over WC and whilst he could run well I can see PR statying on past him for second. PR is still open to some improvement over fences having only 3 times. He should like the extra test of this track compared to where he has been running and he should like going left handed too as he does jump right. His extra stamina late on for me is vital in this market and he can get second for me. 4.00 Ambobo 13 bet3 bog 12.5 pts e.w 5 places Been around for a while but a good horse on his day. Beat MWDS over hurdles and won a grade 2 on this track in his day. He tried fences but didn’t jump well enough far too often such as last year Jewson when he smacked every fence yet still was in the top half dozen who have all run well since in what was a strongish race. Back over hurdles now he ran ok behind aitmatov/clopf who are talented on their day and his run lto behind yesterday’s msut impressive winner in the last was a fair effort, 8 lengths behind her off levels. 139 is higher than his ire mark but could still prove fair for a talented hosre on hsi day who lets not foregt won a grade 2 on this track over hurdles. Great Endeavour 12/1 bet3 bog 12.5 pts e.w 5 places Significantly gone this route and even though slightly out of the handicap a major player. Lacks some experience but very determined judging by a couple of wins and still unexposed having not lost yet. Won all his starts including beating a 135 rated horse on his second start and a twice subsequent winner. Lto ,the horse he beat who was third and has improved since admittedly but was second in grade 2 and for me has a decent chance in the grade 1 on fri. Decent claims. 4.40 Silk Affair 14/1 bet3 bog 15 pts e.w 5 places A tough race to call. However SA is a horse I backed earlier this season after a good run behind RDM who subsequently has boosted that form but for whom an improved SA meets on much better terms with today. SA was fairly useful on the flat and has taken to hurdles well and seemingly has improved. I thought she was most impressive two starts back to make up a lot of late ground to win and win well. She wasn’t that great lto in a race that may not have suited but I can see a big field and a strong pace suiting her well today and she can stay on well late on. 5.15 Dunguib 7/1 bet3 bog 12.5 pts e.w 4 places So difficult with it being so hard to get a grasp on form. However this one after being second in a bumper last season to ORR has put up two very impressive performances so far this season. On his first start this season he was a cosy enough winner, the third having subsequently been behind mikeal d’haguenet in a grade race over hurdles. The second bumper win was even more impressive, he travelled like a proper horse that day and was a good grade 2 winner. Interestingly the fifth that day has already been sent over hurdles and won a grade 2 and been 2 lengths behind Go Native. Officially highest rated for what its worth and could go well. Henry King 25/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pts e.w 4 places British trainers can struggle in this one but Murphy is an eye catching booking for henry king who was visually impressive to me at newb. Beat a horse called pepe simo who repossess and is a subsequent winner and previously had travelled like an easy winner of a bumper only to go wayward and that bumper has produced so many nice types including Bensalem so for Henry king to then go and beat him well is a good victory and even though he maybe one who needs further in time I sense, he may go ok.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Just to clarify 4 places in the first not 5.

[devil tish]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 take a bow woody with forpadytheplasterer:clap followed you after your post about lumping even more on:ok cracking result, cheers mate

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 3520pts Returned 4099.85pts P/L +579.85 Yield +16.47% Strike rate 29.41% (65/221) Ended up a good day yesterday and figures now looking good. However a long way to go and will continue with adventurous staking policy through the meet. 1.30 Kia Kaha 9/1 bet3 bog 12.5 pts e.w Backed this horse lots of times this season and he has delivered a few times as well. He has a good win record in his short career having won more than half his starts. He has taken to fences pretty well in the main and has recorded a couple of pretty easy victories. Perhaps one of his best runs was in defeat when he fell a couple out at taun when still going very well for me and considering he was with a horse as good as herecomesthetruth when it happened, it reads well. Clearly PN runner has improved since but KK warrants major respect on that run and could go well here. Naiad du Misselot 10/1 sj bog 12.5 pts e.w Been the plan for this one ever since he won the coral cup last year I would think. He is proven at the track in that sense and a nice enough chaser by the looks of things so far. He should appreciate going left handed today, right handed hasn’t suited him at times. As for his actual form it is fair if not world beating. Ran a good second over an inadequate trip behind polamar who is a good speedy horse on his day. Even his debut run was good for a first run. Lto he showed signs of encouragement as well in a grade 2 behind the second who ran well enough in the arkle. Blinkers on first time should spark him up that bit more and yard look ready to strike this week. 2.05 Ballydub 11/1 sj bog 15 pts e.w 5 places Good horse this one. Improved big time this one and I don’t think he is done with yet and thats despite him being on 145 now, in fact he isn’t that far off the class of a horse who could run ok in a WH if connections went that route imo and certainly if he wins today he would probably have put up a performance that would have had him in a WH top 5 say. He bumped into punch earlier this season and was a good second behind the awesome winner who has proven his class since. Then he himself won easily at newb beating some of these. He then looked to be running a huge race here on news years day before falling and that form needs respect. BB has boosted it since and whilst horses like DPI (loads of talent), pennek (race could suit) have similar formlines I think ballydub had them on that running and will again today. His second lto was another good effort in a tough handicap and I think he might go one better today with a useful claim off his back. 2.40 Tidal bay 8/1 sky 15 pts e.w So pleased connections have gone this way. They have done what they normally do and deliberated for ages but this race is perfect for him. He is proven over c and d and whilst he won an arkle he showed a fair amount of stamina to do so in the way he did. Indeed for me he looked a RA winner waiting to happen when he won the arkle last year. He hasn’t shown great form this year after a good first win but at the same time has ran ok in patches, his second in the tingle creek was a good effort especially considering the stamina he showed that day to get second having looked set to be out of the 3 at various points. His second afterwards was fair and the trip was too far lto. It hasn’t been plain sailing since that reportedly but he is a class horse on his day with his own way of doing things and he has a massive engine like BB and that could be vbery useful up the hill here. VPU respected but as I have said before I have never regarded him a world beater for all that he is a good consistent horse. 3.20 Big Bucks 13/2 bet3 bog 15 pts e.w For me this horse is a major player in the GC next year, indeed I reckon he would be in the GC this year. However for now he is over hurdles but he still is a major player for this especially e/w. He won a handicap here off a mark in the 150s even though I think Ballydub if standing up may have won that. At that time I was still unconvinced by him as a hurdler but now he is a big player. He won the trial here well and did so impressive given that the slow pace that day wouldn’t have suited him necessarily unlike punch who has a weight pull but for me isn’t a cert for 3m round here. KB has huge respect but I would probably take him on if there was genuine proper early pace and a real test assured, ie. Stamina at an absolute premium as thats the way he could be beaten here but a lot of the trials this year have been slowly run races and although theres a couple of front runners here, how quick they go is questionable for me. If they did go a real pace it would suit the other BB who as you now I constantly follow but he is hard to recommend on current form although if there was a pace he could fly late for a place. However BB still keeps a bit for himself and for me still has a bit more left in the huge tank he has, e.w he is the selection. Will be interesting to see what ride is given to KB as well. 4.00 Clarified 7/1 pp bog 12.5 pts e.w 5 places Backing a few martin runners today which is a bit of a concern given his poor form in the sense of winners, I don’t think he has had on for a couple of months. However he had a second yesterday so could hardly be described as really out of form. This one is a bit of a dark horse here. I thought I spotted him lto when he went into a race with smart form. He was just behind FTPT although that was a slowly run race and maybe slightly false form but he was still going very well after that and thats the form Im most interested in. He fell a few out when bang in contention in a race with two subsequent grade 1 winners in Casey Jones and Golden silver, even the third Aranleigh was a smart performer previously especially here in a bumper. After that he was given a quietish ride in a race where he was third that in time may be ok, nicanor made his chase bow in it, second looks ok although beaten since and first good enough to run in the arkle. His from is fair and this looks his and he could run well against some more experienced campaigners. Ping Pong Sivola 11/1 pp bog 12.5 pts e.w 5 places Been a massive improver this one and has that vital course and distance form having won here in jan and in really classy fashion. That form is rock solid too, not only did she win easily but the second won yesterday and clearly is a good sort, the third and fourth have own since as well at clearly that course win here is very good. She followed up with a routine win since and even that 3 runner race has produced a winner and a second since. The ground may be a bit quick here in the sense here better form has been on the more testing ground but so far this week it hasn’t exactly been good ground and it will be interesting to see how the other course rides. Whatever she is bang in form and warrants respect even though a 1 pound wrong. 4.40 Aggies Lad 11/1 sky 12.5 pts e.w 5 places Going both the Martin runners here in what looks a tough race. Martin’s form isn’t good in the sense of winners but he did have a second here yesterday. Aggies Lad has just got in and that could be crucial. He has a mixed record but in patches like Martin’s runners has shown ability and the run interesting here is 2 starts back. He was still travelling so well when falling two out and looked sure for a place at least if not the win. Given the winner has run well since and the second who reopposes here who has also run really well since is much worse off today, Aggies Lad has a good chance right at the bottom. Newbay Prop 16/1 pp bog 12.5 pts e.w 5 places Perhaps a bit more exposed than AL but a decent staying handicapper on his day and has run some good races in the last few years. He won a big handicap last season off a mark 11 pounds higher than today. He also has run soem solid races at times in other big handicaps such as the eider, Thyestes x2 and even the ire nat when maybe didn’t quite get the trip fully. He won over hurdles two starts back and lto plugged on in the competitive Thyestes, with the blinkers back on today he could run well.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 3760pts Returned 4376.73pts P/L +616.73 Yield +16.4% Strike rate 29.43% (68/231) 1.30 Starluck 13/2 PP BOG 12.5 pts e.w 4 places A very speedy horse judging by his wins over hurdles this season which have all been very classy. Given the speed he has shown, one may think he could struggle round here. However looking at his fairly decent efforts in the flat, he was around a mile and a half horse and that means he is not like a miler, 10f horse on the flat who I would think would struggle to win a TH, i.e MOA (my nap for Aintree.) Straluck should travel a long way into this race and there is a chance he wont fade like some think. Ebadiyan 9/1 tote 12.5 pts e.w 4 places If Starluck does fade late on then Ebadiyan is a different kind of horse to take advantage. He was a stayer on the flat for aga khan and oxx and indeed was good enough for oxx to send to royal asc and that significant. Over hurdles after a sloppy start, he has got his act together and posted some impressive wins. Lto he was second but lost little in defeat as he fought all the way to the line and given that the stiffer chelt track should help. Could spark wild celebrations this one. 2.05 Sunnyhillboy 7/1 bet3 bog 12.5 pts e.w 5 places Been a real improver this one. Has won his last three races now and despite taken several rises in the weights so far it hasn’t stopped him. He also got a crucial win round here. I thought lto there was no chance he could win, it was a slowly run race and he was held up with loads of horses in front of him. Yet he still managed to fly late on to get up and that win deserves extra praise given the way the race was raced. Should go well again. Raise Your Heart 12/1 bet3 bog 12.5 pts e.w 5 places A strong traveller in his races, he seems to suit these big field races and actually for an ire horse is well handicapped. The ire handicapper has him a pound higher than what he is in this and that is unusual. He has won in a race with 30 and 22 runners before and also run a fine race in a strong punch handicap last year. His listed win lto showed good ability and that his current form is good, he should go quite well here. 2.40 Pride of Dulcote 10/3 pp bog 25 pts A horse who only just was a novice this season, he has put up some top performances this season. He won so easily ahead of a 136 rated horse and then fell after that in a race when he was cruising at the time and for which the form is pretty good given the top two especially. Then he has had two more easy wins after that and even when he thrashed a horse in a two runner race when massive odds on lto, the second was competitive afterwards. He has a lofty 155 rating and still gives teh impression there is more to come.

Thetwincamdrifdt 16/1 pp bog 15 pts e.w 4 places A major stayer here and thats what is needed here. Looking at the last two winners of this NC and WL they really are major stayers who will hit flat spots ultimately to stay on relentlessly. He also is a major improver judging by his last few runs where he has seemingly improved every time before running second when really staying in a grade 2 lto. Admittedly he was half flattered because the winner was idling but this certainly is an improving sort who is going to relish the demands of this race. 3.20 Kauto Star 2/1 wh bog 35 pts I have deliberated this for ages but in the end have gone for KS. I do have some doubts, is he quite the same horse at chelt that he is at kem (personally he isn’t but he may not need to be) what exactly did he do in the KG despite the classy nature of his victory. However I think the decision not to run him since the GC is perfect and could just be the key. Last year denman was great and didn’t allow him to be great but at the same time I still expected KS to travel a bit better than he did, he was off it too early for more liking. NC warrants big respect on his run last year and a good win lto but I think his price is starting to get a little bit skinny now for a good horse but ultimately who wasn’t good enough last year and that despite him getting seemingly perfect conditions that day. Today it will still be a test but probably will be a bit easier than last year and that should suit KS. Roll Along 66/1 var bog 7.5 pts e.w Well Im on this for the GN and wasnt going to go for him here but looking at it I think he has interesting form lines for this race and could shock a few to place. I cant think he will be good enough or quick enough to win but regularly horses at huge odds run mighty races in this race and often they are stayers like this one, all he does is stay. He showed that here in the rsa when staying on big time to be second behind AR, then did it again to beat AFO easily in the end, after that he was beaten by BS but I consider BS a suspect stayer and RA in a properly run race may overturn that form. Lto the ground was against but today he could be doing great work late on and run a perfect GN trial. 4.40 Faltering Fallback 18/1 bet3 bog 12.5 pts e.w 5 places Has some fair form this one over hurdles at times. He chased home Tranquil Sea twice including once in a grade 1 last season and he has carried that form over to this season. His last two runs have been solid; one in victory when he beat a subsequent winner and his second lto where he flew late on was fair. He steps back up in trip today which shapes to suit and could go well. Carrick Oscar 40/1 bet3 bog 10 pts e.w 5 places Could be overpriced. Has been running over fences and actually at times has been competitive. However he switches back to hurdles for his first start for a new trainer and that could be interesting. I remember his good win on his first hurdle win and on his first hurdle start this season he ran well. He was third but the form of the top two who have improved since by over a stone and yet CO is only two pounds worse, that could be fair. 5.15 Poquelin 11/2 boy bog 15 pts e.w Interesting connections have gone this route. They could have gone arkle but instead have laid him out for this. He has already won at this track in the winter when he got going so late to win. Then afterwards they went right handed which didn’t suit. Back to a left handed course is more his thing and he appears to have an engine this one and that could suit in this race, could be flying late one.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 4040pts Returned 4481.73pts P/L +441.73 Yield +10.93% Strike rate 28.51% (69/242) Well not as good a last day apart from KS, perhaps the first race gave an idnication of the way it would go with what happened to Ebadiyan and Starluck not getting home having travelled like a dream (btw he is the nap for aintree now not MOA.) Overall though this has been a cracking chelt for me, the staking plan worked this time although Im not sure I will do it quite as agressively again next year, perhaps for the championship races where I did quite well this week (similarly to the flat.) Its turned around this NH season because a couple of months ago I was wondering how much I would be down come the end of the season but now I have changed that somewhat with a really godo lead up to chelt and a godo chelt itself, finally the chelt hoodoo of this season is over. Anyway wasnt going to do anything today but one caught my eye: Uttox 3.10 Flintoff 16/1 wh bog 7.5 pts e.w I noticed this was entered at chelt this week but has interestingly ended up in this and with the bang in form trainer having the top weight too. Flintoff on his day runs well in these big field handicaps over these marathon distances. He has been second in hay. marathon, placed in the SGN having run a fair race in the IGN. Earlier this season he ran well enough at chelt in a race that worked out pretty well with the winner and the second sharing out the finish to a graded race later on in the season. On that form the third beat the boys is very much repsected as it has a slightly better pull with flintoff for today and could be back in form with the NTD stable seemingly in better form than when it has run since chelt. However Flintoff strikes as sort who will enjoy conditions today and looks capable of running a solid e.w race at least.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009

Staked 4040pts Returned 4481.73pts P/L +441.73 Yield +10.93% Strike rate 28.51% (69/242)

Never had a doubt you'll turn the figures around. Well done, mate. I hope Roll Along wins the National now :ok

[mileni4uk]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 I picked all my winners in the championship races. In the handcicaps I had just one winner and two places.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 4055pts Returned 451.23pts P/L +464.23 Yield +11.45% Strike rate 28.8% (70/243) Newb 2.40 Fiftyonefiftyone 2.5 bluesq 15 pts This one must have been showing something because he went off fairly short prices in very competitive looking bumpers before not really doing much. However since he has come to hurdles he has gradually improved. Initially his runs didn’t show that much in a similar way to his bumper runs but lto he really stepped up, He finished a narrow second behind a really promising type in according to dick with the third seeming a solid enough formline in behind and one who could boost the form earlier on the card. Chief rival fistral beach had some promising form early this season but he weakened very alarmingly lto to put me off him and it wouldn’t surprise me if Mr Gardner who judging by some of the races Nh has put him in, must have more ability than he has shown and could be a bigger threat.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 4070pts Returned 451.23pts P/L +449.23 Yield +11.03% Strike rate 28.68% (70/244) Hay 3.45 Prince Taime 3 VC 15 pts A horse I have followed this season and so far without a victory but has run some solid enough races in competitive races to suggest a win might not be that far away and an increased trip could just be the key. Following on from three wins last season, he has just lacked a bit of the pace for 2m this season, often staying on but far too late. Lto in the imperial cup was another prime example. Up only a few pounds for that effort he still is a major player and given that further improvement looks possible given this trip, he could win today in this unique event. 4.20 Moscow Catch 2.5 betfr 15 pts Could well concern the front two in the market here and whilst the NH runner warrants respect, I like MC. MC showed some useful ability in bumpers. He won one and came second in two other events including one at winc behind Bensalem that worked out unbelievably well. He then started his hurdling career well to win at ayr before an even more impressive effort after that behind a really nice PH horse called tarablze who was doing little in front so MC may have been slightly flattered to get as close but even still a second behind him over these types of hurdles was a fine run. A run that looked better after tarablaze won a graded event afterwards. Fancy the Jefferson runner for this. Newb 1.45 Psi 2.87 bluesq 15 pts Been waiting for this one in a handicap. Has shown glimpses of ability for his canny trainer in three hurdle runs. First time he was behind in some race with the TH front two and he just plugged on into fifth. Then he was involved in another hot race behind RDM and SA who both have boosted the form countless times since. His final run to get his handicap mark was when plugging on once again in another hot race behind torpichen and subsequent graded win trenchant. His style of running suggests the extended trip should suit today and the first time blinkers could just spark him up a bit further. This looks a realistic winning opportunity. 3.30 Argento Luna 6.5 bluesq 7.5 pts e.w Backed this a few times and with some success. Lto she won narrowly in the end but still travelled and seemed to look the best horse in that race by some way for me. She perhaps didn’t pick up quite as she looked like she would and that is a style she has shown a few times. However she still got the job done after a couple of seconds when perhaps if not given as much to do especially three starts back now she may have won. Her form lto is good with the next two winning and even though the second re opposes on better terms today for on paper a narrow defeat, I get the impression AL may be saving a bit for herself still and could uphold that form. 4.05 Riverside Theatre 1.57 spo 15 pts Backed this last time and was an easy and an impressive winner. Travelled well and picked up to put aside a 133 rival easily in truth. That confirmed the promise of his first run over hurdles when he was second behind supreme fourth copper bleu and to some degree some good bumper runs including one behind DH and a victory this season at asc. Has a penalty here cut could well defy it.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 4130pts Returned 4639.72pts P/L +509.72 Yield +12.34% Strike rate 29.43% (73/248) Winc 2.20 Classic Swain 5/2 betfr 15 pts A highly regarded runner from PN. Hasn’t been seen much in this country but arrived with a fair reputation from france and had quite a few runs over in france on a variety of different surfaces and therefore the quicker ground shouldn’t be a problem today. On his debut he showed up for a fair time behind the classy starluck at kem before ending up perhaps a slightly disappointing seventh but that race has produced the odd fair type from behind the comprehensive winner, Silk Affair would be a prime example. I think a lot more of CS can be expected and with the various conciliations in weight he might have a good chance. The only slightly disturbing thing about him is that he has been tongue strapped on both starts which perhaps for a novice is a bit disturbing but generally I think he has strong claims.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 4145pts Returned 4639.72pts P/L +494.72 Yield +11.93% Strike rate 29.31% (73/249) One tomorrow and will be SP. Kem 2.40 Dreamy Sweeney 15 pts. Dreamy Sweeney runs in a 7 runner race tomorrow and I fancy his chances somewhat. This former pointer who once had a victory over foxhunters winner cappa bleu in that arena has shown some definite signs of some ability over hurdles. In his first hurdle run he was still travelling well behind a top sort in karabak before unfortuantely being brought down. After that he encountered karabak again and was well put in place when beaten some way in fifth but to be fair his fifth was a solid enough effort. The top 7 that day have all shown ability at times. After that he was a faller once again on heavy ground when beaten late on but once again that was amongst a couple of smartish sorts who were in front by some way and with an unexposed runner in third. Today he runs on faster ground than he has run on over hurdles so far but apparently he has encountered good ground in his point days so not massively concerned about that. He has had some unfortunate mishaps so far over hurdles but in the context of this field DS looks the stand out to me. BK perhaps chief rival but after all he wasnt good enough off 115 in a handicap lto and DS I see as a fair bit ahead of such a level.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 4160pts Returned 4668.36pts P/L +508.36 Yield +12.22% Strike rate 29.6% (74/250) One for later and will be SP. Towc 2.35 Prairie Spirit 15 pts Bit of a gamble with this one because he has a mixed profile but potentially this one is dangerous on his handicap debut. He is an extremely rare case of a horse who did have a higher rating on the flat than on hurdles, so low is his hurdle rating. His hurdle form showed nothing first two starts but lto was a bit more encouraging. He finished third, beaten a fair way but plugged on at the same pace and was ahead of some potentially ok sorts, ie. Character Building's brother, a fifth who wasnt disgraced afterwards. His french flat form does look fair, he won a few times generally on apparently softer surfaces and has a mark of 85 now but that was in the 90s to start with over here. After his poor hurdle career start, he was tried on the flat over here and showed very little so that is concerning. It should be noted that at time the trainers lack of form hasnt helped. However lto over hurdles there was a bit more hope and first time in a handicap today in what looks just an ordinary race there is some hope. Faster ground is an unknown but there is an american influence in the pedigree which suggests faster ground may be fine and he may be of note in his handicap bow.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 4175pts Returned 4773.36pts P/L +598.36 Yield +14.33% Strike rate 29.88% (75/251) Asc 3.30 Higgys Boy 10/3 bluesq15 pts Fancy NH runner quite strongly here. It runs today in a novice handicap off 129 which is four lower than the mark it was given in a tame effort in the FW. However I think they may be down to the horse is not at home at chelt. Twice its run their now and twice its been beaten a long way. Given its fairly useful flat form was say 9f or under and remember its by a former aus sprinter, its perhaps not that surprising that less demanding 2m tracks like newb, don and today asc would favour more than chelt. Back on a more suitable track today and given lto it won and may have only done so by a few lengths but seemingly won with a fair bit in hand, it should go well. Font 2.10 Lavender Track evens pp bog 15 pts This yard have been flying and in what could be a two horse battle I give preference to LT here. In comparison to likely market rival, CML, LT is a bit less exposed. The King runner won lto for the first time over hurdles but that was at her fourth attempt after some decent but not winning efforts. In contrast, LT won in good style on her first hurdle start to follow up from some reasonable bumper form although the King runner also had such decent bumper form so not much in it from that line. However LT was a comfortable enough winner lto to suggest that even against a fair sort in CML she can overcome her and win. 2.45 Blazing Desert 8/11 bet3 bog 15 pts Shortish price here but looks by far the most likely winner. Many of this field have question marks and BD at least has a profile which is going the right way. After three fairly reasonable hurdle efforts behind some fair sorts and probably better than reasonable in the context of this race, BD then suffered at san when he was beaten some way. However lto on quicker ground which he should get again today and given the American influence seemingly suits, he ran a good enough race to plug on into second. The form of that race got a boost when the third won afterwards and BD slightly up in trip could well do so as well.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 4220pts Returned 4873.99pts P/L +653.99 Yield +15.49% Strike rate 30.31% (77/254) Amazed at the SP on HB and yet I didn’t take bog for once. Ling 2.15 Kangaroo Court 6/4 SJ bog 15 pts Good horse this one and can defy a penalty here. The NH market rival is respected and there is a fear about KC that he can pull far too hard and destroy his chances but to be fair he pulled hard on his only hurdle win so far and yet still won. His effort at asc afterwards was good behind karabak and in front of nice types like Somersby for example who reversed form in the supreme where KC could never land a blow. Nowhere near as competitive today and could go well. 2.50 Eradicate 11/8 spo 15 pts This one was a good sort on the flat for MJ and ran some good races at times. Over hurdles he initially looked a top recruit after a good win on his debut where he was visually impressive. After that he disappointed to lose when big odds on and didn’t run up to even the form of his first run. However to be fair the horse who beat him was still good on the flat (88 rated) and could turn out to be a good sort over hurdles as well and eradicate had to give weight to him. So perhaps it wasn’t that bad a run, third ran second afterwards too and eradicate could be worth another chance here. 4.00 Fair Point 15/8 sj bog 15 pts This one didn’t run a good race at chelt and there is a concern that this race could come too soon afterwards. However he wasn’t thrashed when beaten then and if in similar form to before that previous run then he is a danger. Was second to a sort I rate in hennessy who ran well enough at chelt and then got off the mark with a win on demanding ground at taun and beat a subsequent winner and a horse who has won two big ‘nationals’ since although didn’t run to form the day FP beat him. Nonetheless that was solid form and ground today isn’t an issue and he could go well as long as he isn’t feeling to strong affects. Utt 2.00 Always Bold 5/4 sj bog 15pts Like McCain’s runner here up in trip here. This could turn into a clash between this one and raincoat and both of these were good sorts on the flat although raincoat ended up disappointing. However the key here is the trip for AB. Essentially he was a stayer on the flat for MJ and given that it is no real surprise that 2m would make him look one paced on his first two hurdle starts. The increased trip shapes as though it will really suit today and Raincoat who might not be a natural at this trip could be overturned.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 4280pts Returned 4911.49pts P/L +631.49 Yield +14.75% Strike rate 30.23% (78/258) New Abb 1.50 Qanta De Thaix 15 pts Actually not a bad race this and there are a couple of former flat horses who were not that bad on the level and could yet be ok over hurdles. However I like the Pipe runner here who is owned unusually by JP and for whom there has been some hype over at times. This one is yet to win over hurdles but at times has run fair races, for example was once just behind the useful woolcombe folly for one. This season he hasnt really done it but it must be remembered that at times the pipe's where not in form and it still must be showing something to go off a price like 9/2 in a competitive looking handicap at the open meeting at chelt. The quicker ground could be an issue here but he handled good fine in arguably his best hurdle form behind woolcombe folly and if handles the even quicker ground.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Forget to put the price in, 11/4 spo although it has to be said not many doing shows at the minute.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 4295pts Returned 4911.49pts P/L +616.49 Yield +14.35% Strike rate 30.11% (78/259) Right big meeting at ain and as is the general way of the season Im going to raise the stakes here at the meet. Ain 2.00 Big Bucks 5/6 pp bog 15 pts BB is the class act here. He has really improved over hurdles and won the WH at chelt and for me was ever so slightly cosy for that win as is his style. The front pair were miles clear and its hard to really see that form being reversed. I know MM is much better here but he still has huge questions to answer if his ability if really still there. BB won at this meet last year having run at chelt and that really encourages in the sense that it gives a guide he can cope with the two festivals together and I fancy him to win this. Pettifour 33/1 lad 5 pts e.w At a big price pettifour could go ok. At the weights he has it all to do still. However there are question marks about some rivals at much shorter prices, is MM really back, FA poor effort lto, DDR seemingly gone backwards so a horse at a price could place here. That horse could be NTD’s runner. Sure he has question marks too having lost his way of late. However the yard are in better knick now and also Pettifour finally gets better ground today which I feel he needs. At a track he is proven at, he could sneak a place and just in case I have left the win there too. 2.35 Starluck 11/4 wh bog 25 pts Keen on this horse. I backed him in the TH thinking that whilst there was stamina doubts, I felt he could just get home. Ultimately he didn’t. He travelled extremely well, better than anything else in that race imo but didn’t get home to such an extent where he went from 2 out looking a possible/probable winner to not even placing. There is a suggestion he might not find that much and it will be interesting to see as his career develops as to whether that has substance but Im definitely given him another try today. He has produced top form on 2m flat tracks before, certainly in terms of impression and he could just outclass these and have too much speed for them in a cheeky fashion. 3.10 Denman evens cor 15 pts I suppose there is a question mark here about fitness given that for all his problems ,will he be able to back up a top performance with another one in a short time. Also quite whether or not he will be as effective here as say at chelt. However this still is a test this race and Denman will certainly make it a test as well. I get the impression connections are happy enough with him otherwise why would they even think of risking him and I guess I trust that. He is the class act of this race on form and I think could just get his first victory since the GC here. Air Force One 20/1 bet3 bog 5 pts e.w As an alternative at a price, AFO may run quite well. Its hard to say that he will be good enough to win and also he has questions to answer after two recent performances. However he had a legit excuse in the KG when he was below par and after another poor performance in the GC Im coming to the conclusion he hasn’t taken to the fences at chelt after his second bad chase run there. Back on a flatter track could well suit this horse who was most impressive at the end of last season at punch as he was at the start of this season when behind RA when not A1 and when behind MDB in the Hennessey. They are top runs that don’t put him out of the frame for this and he may find this track more to his suiting. 4.20 Pasco 14/1 sj bog 10 pts e.w Tricky race but Pasco should well enjoy a return to a flatter track for this race. All his wins have been on flatter tracks and they have been good wins at times at places like newb. When he has gone to chelt twice now he hasn’t really managed to perform totally. Lto I still thought he ran ok at chelt and at one stage loomed up a threat before not quiet seeing it out for me. Back on a flatter track I can really see suiting this horse and I prefer him much more than Poquelin the other PN runner who may get outpaced round here. 4.55 Planet of Sound 7/2 lad 20 pts Another one whos likes a flatter track. Admittedly this one can go on other types of trackssuch as chelt as he showed with a good third in the arkle when he stayed on well in the manner of a race who should appreciate further which he gets today. However he also posted some top performances on flatter tracks earlier this season with his jumping at times very impressive. Given he is by kayf tara the extra trip should help here as his last run also indicated and I much prefer him to chapoturgeon who was impressive lto but faces a stiffer task here and CB whos win record is disappointing for a horse of his talent. 5.30 The Package 12/1 bet3 bog 10 pts e.w So many to consider here. I had about 6 left at one point but I have narrowed it down to one. TP has recently been running over fences and been running with some credit too. His run in grade 3 lto was a fine effort. However today he is back over hurdles and I still believe reasonably handicapped over hurdles. He showed form early on over hurdles when being second behind POS but it really is his last hurdle run that really encourages. He was second behind punchestowns no less, only beaten 2 lengths and was given him 10 pounds and the pair were clear of the third. Now punchestowns has clearly improved a lot since but even still such a run by TP needs lots of respect and could make a 135 rating seem pretty fair on better ground which personally I think he is better on.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 4430pts Returned 4938.99pts P/L +508.99 Yield +11.48% Strike rate 29.58% (79/267) Not such a good day yesterday. Ain 2.00 Riverside Theatre 15/2 sj bog 10 pts e.w Backed this horse a few times now and he has done well of late. He has always been highly regarded and his form strikes as an improver too. Since being beaten comfortably by copper bleu he has won twice and in both times in a nice and cosy enough fashion and on flatter tracks which clearer he prospers on. I still get the impression there is more to come and in a championship race where the pace will probably be more genuine, he could prosper even further for me. At a price Alfie Fits could go quite well too but the NH runner for me here. 2.35 Shining Gale 13/2 spo 10 pts e.w Tricky race here I feel. Herecomesthetruth comes here in good form, he has improved but is certainly slightly tricky. MM Im still not convinced by as a 3m horse even round here so Im going for SB. This horse has form with HCTT having been upsides him at the last at chelt before the PN horse ducked out and left SG. Clearly HCTT has improved since then and SG arguably goen backwards but SG meets him today on better terms and having been on the decline seemingly, really bounced back lto. The cheek pieces really seem to concentrate him better and he ended up a good winner and whilst he needs to step up again I feel there is a chance now he is back in form that he may do so. 3.10 Petit Robin 12/1 bluesq 10 pts e.w Clearly there is a trip question mark here but Im going to give him a try. He has won at 19f before over hurdles so today is a slight step up in trip from that but obviously even more of a step up from his previous chase form which has been good and improved. He won at newb in a handicap but has also run good races twice right handed which doesn’t really suit. Lto in the CC he ran well to be third and appeared perhaps not to look a natural for a step up in trip on that occasion. However his very late tiring that day which enabled WC to get past him was for me as much as that PR made a genuine attempt to try and win the race and perhaps that paid. In time I feel the horse will get further, his dams sire for example has been a stamina influence and if he does get the trip today he is a major player, at his price Im willing to try and find out. 3.45 Irish Raptor 12/1 pp bog 7.5 pts e.w 5 places Officially out of the handicap by a good few pounds today. However that can slightly go out the window in these races and besides I don’t actually feel he is badly handicapped. Last year he was a narrow second yet is very much weighted to turn that form around today, he is only 2 pounds higher yet Gwanako is 13 pounds higher. IR has become unreliable these days but on his day is still dangerous, for example he was with Darkness, who I believe is the best handicapped horse for the GN, before ducking out. After that he never jumped well enough and never was on a going day which he can do but if he does put his best foot forward he is still a big danger over fences he has run well over before. Private Be 20/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pts e.w 5 places On bits of form he could still be fairly treated off 138 here. He has some decent chase form, he beat Nacarat earlier this season, good third in Paddy Power earlier this season. There are some other positives here as well. He goes well fresher which he is today and he appears to go well at Aintree at least on the other course judging by novice win at this meet two years ago., clearly these fences are different though. However a bit like IR, if he is in the mood, he is a danger. 4.20 Karabak 9/4 wh bog 25 pts Stepping up in trip which I like here. This one has improved throughout the series for stepping up in trip. He won over an extended 2m earlier this season but this likeable sort who continually stepped up since then. He was most impressive when winning at asc and then ran well in defeat at chelt where he made late progress to be second having found the slowly run nature of the race against him and leaving him temporarily flat footed at a crucial stage. Again there is a question about the trip here stepping up, on pedigree his half brother actually is a stayer for what its worth. However I like him here, he is quiet similar to Walkon with his attitude and with his trainer in good form he is the pick. 4.55 Liberate 16/1 sj bog 7.5 pts e.w Could be overpriced. A couple of years ago he was classy, he was second in a TH behind Katchit and in front of Punjabi that day. He hasn’t always performed since then but on better ground he is feared. He often performs better on better ground and that was seen with a 3m win at hay off only a pound higher a couple of starts back. That run was important because it also showed he can get 3m now. He also can go well fresh so decent enough claims here. Mirage Dore 11/1 bet 3bog 7.5 pts e.w This one has been running really well for a while now. The handicapper has gradually raised him but that still hasn’t stopped him running good races time and time again. His win over FA two starts back reads really well, he got 13 pounds that day but even still beat him fairly and was in command at the end. He then had a long lay off only to run a cracker in the coral cup and just find one too good despite a late charge. There are a couple of things here to consider though. He returns to better ground which in his early days really suited and also he steps up in trip to 3m which again is a question mark but given his style of late where he has often been staying on strongly on stiffer tracks over a bit shorter, I think he can get it.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 4590pts Returned 5140.24pts P/L +550.24 Yield +11.98% Strike rate 29.81% (82/275) Have taken off GN ante posts that are non runners, a real shame as I was really keen on them too, RA especially. Ain Grand National: Just some general thoughts about the race. A lot of horses I put a line through straight away here as likely non stayers at trips shorter than this and for who I struggle to see them getting this trip: Fundamentalist, battlecry, Fleet Street, Stan to name a few. There are also a few I see as no hopers really in this or with an awful lot to prove after time out and haven’t recaptured former days: Arteta, Ceruim, Idle Talk, Reveillez, Zabenz, Eurotrek to name a few. Then I start to bracket horses Im not sure will be good enough to win given they have had their chances before and seemingly not been good enough and sometimes are returning off higher marks: Mon Mone, Cloudy Lane, Chelsea Harbour for example although this doesn’t mean they don’t have place chances. There are a few here who also are probably a bit better on softer generally: Black Apalachi, Priest leap, Southern Vic. So starting to eliminate a few and get onto some of the more fancied horses. MW and RM I respect and they are ahead of the handicapper however for all of that Im still thinking just a bit that there are perhaps one or two ‘darker’ horses in this who perhaps aren’t quite as exposed at around this trip. PL could go well as he is horse who should like the conditions and is much better fresh, however whether or not he quite has the necessary pounds in hand over the handicapper Im not so sure. SOP also goes well fresh and has a bit of class but Im not sure he is in say his Hennessy winning form or even his CH second which I felt was better than his win this year. The main two I like from ante post are II and Darkness (see below.) Both have come out since the weights and proved they are well handicapped and both are very much dark horses at this trip. Both have questions to answer such as Darkness and how he will hold up jumping wise for all that he hasn’t fallen so far. Also II is a major question mark with the trip but I get the sense Mullins is quietly confident about it, he has won 3m over hurdles, was going so well in the Kerry national before falling and for me if he gets it, and it is an if, he could be bang there. Unlike so many other irish horses he is not badly handicapped. Darkness 66/1 bluesq 2.5 pts e.w Not as confident on this one but a bit of a darkhorse. A couple of years ago he was one of the best novices around. He won a grade 1 and a grade 2 and was clearly very talented if not slightly one to have the odd reservation about and ocassionally making a few jumping errors. In the RSA (a very good GN trial) he stayed on reasonably noticeably to be third when made too many errors to be truly competitive. After that he has had lots of injury problems and had been off the track for a while. However he came back this season and ran top race fto this season after such a long lay off. Eventually he was third in a competitive race but he plugged on that day and the form of that race was good. Possol has run well since, Mon Mome clearly has since and Darkness gets a nice pull in the weights from that one, Rambling Minster was another one in midfield that day who has won since and Darkness gets a pull with that one too. Darkness didnt run as well in the WGN which is some concern but his first run back this season showed real promise for me and suggested he still has ability in him. The handicapper has given him a bit of a chance of 143 (he was 154 rated) and he might just be worth a small chance knowing that he will probably get in the race needing 13 to come out which normally would be fine. Irish Invader 100/1 bet365 5 places 1.5 pts e.w He hasnt proven he has the stamina requirements for this race yet but also he has seldom been tried at a huge trip that often. Once in the kerry national when he was tried at an increased trip to normal he fell when still not out of that race at all and that encourages stamina wise. Indeed looking at his pedigree he could get the trip, its not impossible, his half brother has won over 3m and his sire has produced some stayers in the past and he did win over 3m in his novice hurdles days so whilst the GN would be a gamble it maybe worth a try. Mostly he has been running over trips like 2m and slightly more than that but nothing like the marathon GN trip. However in the past horses have been campaigned over shorter distances and gone into the GN with distance question marks before running fine races, KJC last year would be a recent example. Irish Invaders form has been good of late, he has won his last two races and he seems on an upward curve as confirmed by his graded win lto. The trip has to be a question mark here but at 100/1 Im prepared to have a small risk. To make sure I have Darkness for 5 places Im adding a small pts 25/1 cor 2.5 pts e.w and also just a top up on II 22/1 sj bog 2.5 pts e.w 5 places. There is one other Im going for though: Butlers Cabin 9/1 sj bog 15 pts e.w Im slightly torn as to if this is well handicapped or not. Officially the handicapper will have him on a much lower weight today if he could. Yet he is running of the same mark as last year when he was still going very well still before falling second time at beechers. Still a fair way out that day but judging by the fact he is a former IN/ chelt 4m winner, he was unlikely to fail on part of stamina. Unlike horses who did go on last year like COD or SM he is not faced with 10+ pound extra today and for me with a clear round I think he will be ahead of them today. Horses who have fallen in this race before can come back and win as has been proven before and BC could be similar. Lto he showed up quite well over an inadequate trip and that encouraged, he didn’t show anything before last years race for example. I like Darkness and Irish invader too but BC also comes into the mix. 1.45 Copper Bleu 9/2 spo 20 pts Im not sure about the trip her for CB but I do like him. Earlier in the season he didn’t get it but that was on really testing ground. After that defeat he has ran some top races. Beat Riverside Theatre easily, ran a cracker behind MOA given him loads of weight and again ran a good race in the supreme. On that evidence he didn’t perhaps look a likely sort for a step up in trip but looking at his background (winning 3m pointer) he could well find the step up to his liking and if he does he is a big danger here/ 2.15 Song of Songs 7/1 sj bog 10 pts e.w Sort of feel the e.w bet is a waster here with 2 places only but still going for it. On paper doesn’t have the class of a KK or Tatenen but both could have the odd question mark here. KK was flat footed in the arkle at a crucial stage before staying on and might not be a complete natural 2m on a speed track although I see him as the most likely winner still. Tatenen fell in the arkle but could need it softer and in time I feel will need further. However I was impressed by SOS lto even though he was getting weight from DP who ran well here on thur. I thought he was a slightly cosy winner who I still think has affair bit left in the tank. He could relish this flatter surface and given he is a horse who saves a bit for himself its hard to say quite how good he really is, could surprise. 2.50 Catch Me 6/1 sj bog 12.5 pts e.w Open race but going for the Irish runner who I like at this trip. Has a form over a variety of trips now, even up to 3m but a fast run 2 and half miles could well suit and has shown enough form over this sort of trip before to suggest could go ok. His recent form in ire has been very good, 4/4 this season and a lot of them top graded wins too. Whether they are the strongest graded races of all time Im not sure but thats not his fault. Even though a lot of the wins have been soft ground he has gone well on good before and he definitely a player for this. 5.00 Seven is my Number 3/1 bet3 bog 20 pts Always had some hype around it and to be fair he has justified it in some ways. Put into a grade 1 on debut and was good enough to win in it over a bumper. Over hurdles he has also shown bits of form, beat Woolcombe Folly for example and really lto he ran a cracker in the really competitive Imperial Cup to be second having been given loads to do, too much in truth. Maybe he wouldn’t have been good enough to beaten the winner but he would have been closer. Sure he has been raised 9 pounds for that but given the way he can travel on a flat track and the real suggestion that we haven’t seen the best of him, he could defy it.

[Aykay1]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 2 great prices for the National there Woody, good luck :hope

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 4723pts Returned 5166.80pts P/L +443.8 Yield +9.39% Strike rate 29.43% (83/282) Aintree was a poor festival for me and a struggle to find the winners. Anyway had a good last 6 weeks so cant really complain. Font 2.30 Calusa Crystal 6/4 bet3 bog 15 pts This one could develop into a duel between this one and Call Me A Legend. Call Me A legend was involved in a similar duel on its last start and I opposed her with a similar priced horse. However that one fell just as things were hotting up and CMAL ended up with an easy win after another horse who was also with it that day also fell. That was CMAL second win on the trot and clearly she is in good form. However in Calusa Crystal she is up against another horse in good form. She has won two out of her three starts and fell in another one albeit she was beaten seemingly when she fell that day. However I like her recent form. She may have ‘only’ won by a couple of lengths last time but showed good courage to do so and the front pair were some way clear of a useful sort in third. The second may not have run great afterwards but that was in a tough aint handicap and previously he had shown the odd glimpse (the run behind karabak for example.) Officially CC has a few pounds in hand here and whilst sometimes with such a duel looking poised, it can come down to the jockeys and I would always take Choc over Johnson especially other hurdles, but on this instance Im going for Johnson and Calusa Crystal.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 4738pts Returned 5204.3pts P/L +466.3 Yield +9.84% Strike rate 29.68% (84/283) Lud 4.00 Supreme Duke 5/2 bet3 bog 15 pts Hobbs often does well at this time of year and whilst in the big meetings he is coming up short, in these sorts of races he seems to be doing well and he could have another winner here. SD was a nice sort over hurdles who had pieces of form, the victory over Woolcombe Folly for example and he has taken well enough to fences. Just three runs but all of some ability at times. Encouraging first run when fourth but then managed to win over c and d in good enough style afterwards. Found things a fraction too tough when third in novice chase afterwards but that seemed a hottish race, winner has won a couple on the bounce and is progressive and the second had smart form in beating oh crick earlier. So SD lost little really that day and back to handicaps today on a track he goes on he is the pick.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 4753pts Returned 5204.3pts P/L +451.3 Yield +9.49% Strike rate 29.57% (84/284) Hay 3.30 Clova Island 10/3 sky 15 pts Has some useful form this one. Ran well behind the supreme third Somersby at kem on decent ground and didn’t get the clearest of runs that day. Also beat good flat horse if not disappointing hurdle sort in Thundering Star. However it was arguably his run lto which seems most interesting. Was right in contention with Indian Blood at the last before a fall and who knows what would have happened that day if CI would have stayed up but it was a fine run to a point and it looks better given IB looked to be about to win a tough handicap next time before crashing out himself at the last. Its only off a 4 pound higher mark today. The slight concern could be the ground, has handled good ground fine but this looks to be even quicker but if he handles it could be nicely treated here.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 4768pts Returned 5204.3pts P/L +436.3 Yield +9.15% Strike rate 29.47% (84/285) Fair 2.45 Oligarch Society 9/4 boy bog 15 pts The 5 year old at the bottom who Walsh rides is unexposed and very much respected for this grade 3 contest but OS has some fair form to her name already, probably the best in the field and could cock up a victory here. After winning a bumper she won on her hurdle debut and then ran a good race behind supreme winner go native to be fourth and looking a touch one paced over 2mwhich encourages today from a trip perspective. The second that day, Roberto goldback, is also a nice sort who has earlier form beating another novice Cheltenham winner, weapons amnesty, so that form looks solid and OS built on that afterwards to win and beat a couple who reoppose here. The question mark here is the step up in trip but at times she has looked a little one paced over shorter and she is a half sister to a runner in this field who has form over further so she has solid claims to get it and if she does she could be hard to beat. 3.15 Kempes 11/8 boy bog 15 pts Kempes disappointed in the supreme in a race where he made too many mistakes in a huge field but in a shorter field today he could return to winning ways. This former good sort on the flat (100 rated) looked impressive early on over hurdles with two wins. He beat puyol comfortably enough and should confirm that form today and with Roberto goldback back in third (who I mentioned earlier as having form with a horse who won at chelt) that seems solid enough hurdle form. He also won afterwards beating a subsequent winner. Donnas Palm has the best form in this race with lines of form with Hurricane Fly/Cousin Vinny (albeit a false race) and also behind Mikeal D’Haguenet but he has put in some shocking runs and is hard to recommend at his price given his inconsistencies, Kempes for me. 3.45 Jayo 12/1 pp bog 7.5 pts e.w Top race. Trafford Lad was a good sort as a novice hurdler and has run very well so far over fences with some top form at times with FPTP, Cooldine, Casey Jones. However Im not totally sure what his trip is and in time I cant help feel he will need a touch further and he could be vulnerable to one with a bit of pace here and as an upset it could be Jayo, worthy fav mind you. Jayo doesn’t appear to be first choice of the yard but the yards first choice Golden Silver may need it softer and Jayo has a couple of good wins to his name already over fences. He can be a bit hit and miss and has suffered from broken blood vessels in the past which partially explains that but on his day he is good. For example he won two novice chases this season in good style, in particular when beating a really solid yardstick in Made in Taipain who was solid at chelt/aint and Jayo thumped and it didn’t appear that MIT ran badly either. Jayo has won at this trip and at a price may have at the worst e.w prospects here.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 4813pts Returned 5243.68pts P/L +430.68 Yield +8.94% Strike rate 29.51% (85/288) Fair 3.55 Casey Jones 16/1 bet3 bog 7.5 pts e.w 5 places. Unfortunately the nature of the race has changed with the late withdraw but could still run well. Does have more weight to carry now but then again has some top form to go with that. He has won a grade 1 this season and in the manner of a stayer too. He also beat the useful Golden Silver before he ran a real eye catching race at chelt. At one point he was completely out of it yet he charged up the hill to be fifth and in a few more strides would have placed such was his late rally. On that run he looks a horse likely to appreciate the extra stamina test today. Rebel chief 50/1 boy bog 5 pts e.w 5 places Bit more of a wildshot this one but does have one very interesting piece of form. Was once a 20 length victor over Casey Jones no less with another 20 length gap to the next horse who is now 127 rated. Clearly CJ has progressed sicne then but RC beat him easily that day and did so in the manner of a real stayer. Since then his form hasn’t been there, twice beaten over fences by rare bob in better company but I just wonder if today is the day. Connections have raced him over hurdles a few times so perhaps there is an element of a plot here and lto he looked to need the run behind rare bob. Not the worse outsider given the thrashing he gave to the much more fancied Casey Jones who he meets on much better terms too.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Rebel chief is with bet3 not boy but still bog/5 places.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Woody THFC Jumps 2008/2009 Staked 4838pts Returned 5243.68pts P/L +405.68 Yield +8.38% Strike rate 29.31% (85/290) M. Rasen 2.00 Sassanias 5/2 bet3 bog 15 pts Smallish field here which could well help this one as its unlikely to be a really gruelling stamina test for one with an unproven record at this new trip of 3m but is certainly worth ago at it on its handicap bow. He showed ability in bumpers to be second behind stable Awesome George and a couple of other efforts which were decent. Over hurdles has been tried in better company and first two starts was beaten a fair way although was bumping into some good sorts especially in the context of this race. However he improved lto for better ground to be fifth in a race which According to Dick one and its not certain he is getting this trip but as I say ist worth ago especially round a track like this. Exe 3.40 Shannon Spriggs 6/1 lad 7.5 pts e.w Quite a decent looking race this one but one I like who is proven in these conditions is Shannon Spriggs. This is a horse who has always run better when granted quicker ground which he has today. Its a horse who clearly has had some problems as he was off for a year. I remember it being so unlucky two years back off the same mark as today when the saddle slipped and he was all over the winner to be second that day. After that it had a while off but bounced back with a good effort behind character building before a couple of disappointing efforts when without favoured conditions. However lto he ran a really solid race to be third and only a length of the winner in a similar race to this, up four pounds for that but solid enough claims today. Fair 2.55 Roberto Goldback 15/8 bluesq 15 pts This one has smart form. Two starts back it beat the chelt winner weapons amnesty and then it dropped back in trip to finish a good second over an inadequate trip behind another chelt winner in go native. Fair to say it has received a form boost or two then. Today it looks the pick on form and really the issue is the ground. Most of its form is one softer than this but its sire often produces horses who are fine on this ground and if he handles it he could be tough to beat. 4.00 Sesenta 9/2 spo 7.5 pts e.w Very interesting to see how the market speaks of carthalawn here who has stones in hand if able to produce its chase form over hurdles. However sesenta also has some good form and its proven over hurdles. Ran into the now grade 1 winning solwit over hurdles (a run where sky hall also comes into it for this) and also the very talented quevega who was awesome at chelt and for whom she finished only 4 lengths behind albeit getting weight. Lto she found the county a bit too tough but still ran well enough for a way and is much better weighted with the second that day. Possible claims.