ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Pissed at myself for missing fading Chela:(. Can make a lot of coin fading him on hards. Just seen his record here at Miami and the wins he's had and thought he should go through. One thing about not following, you miss the "he shouldn't have won that" situations because the stats don't tell ya ;)

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Agree with you on Stan:ok WAWRINKA @ 2.26 Pinnacle. Really struggling to justify Soderling as fav here. He's much weaker outdoors than indoors and with the slower conditions here he could struggle. Wawrinka found his form again last week and played some very solid stuff before pushing Djokovic quite a bit. I like Wawrinka on a medium/slow hard court and he should be very strong today. Soderling destroyed Koubek in the first round but it would just be typical of him to play a shocker today.

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr I could destroy Koubek ;) Reynolds doesn't looks really all that bad, but Youzhny looks really, really good against him 80% of first serves in, Reynolds is losing 75% of his second serves. :$ There's just no pace on the ball whatsoever. Reynolds looks vunerable and may just be sitting back to get a decent paycheck (for him). I thought about adding Troicki to my bets today because of the slower pace, but Roddick isn't nearly as vunerable when he loses some pace off serve as Reynolds is. Slower pace could very well explain why Chela hung in there as long as he did.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Forgot this one.... PENG @ 2.37 Coral. Really tough to price up Mauresmos matches right now, but I think she's too low for this. Mauresmo has been playing awful stuff by her standards this year, and was very poor last week against Bondarenko. Here she's playing an excellent mover who will make a lot of balls and that just means a lot of chances for Mauresmo to make an unforced error. Peng has been playing pretty well lately, winning a couple of matches last week before going down to Radwanska in 3 sets. I'm sure she can keep this close, and we'll just have to see how Mauresmo is when the pressure is on.

[Crazy North]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

Don't know why is Ančić gift?!? he played awfull last match, Murray is in form and this surface suites Murray well, he's great on return etc. Also Benneteau played 3 sets against Schuettler, while Karlović is serving great and his game is solid those days, hig rebound surface suites his game, IMO Karlović win. Great value on Minar today IMO. Monaco will beat Minar, he has many weapons to dismiss lowest ranked player left in draw. Reynolds is serving very good, probable upset. Ferrer and Soderling are great value IMO as well as Hewitt. :cow:spank:gimme

I think that it is as to give @3 against Murray is big underestimation on this boy.I think like that and i really dont care about your opinion :lol

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Ridiculous Peng serves for the match twice and blows it - not having a good day:@:@:@:@

[yves]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr what a retard that girl, i was on her as well, really pathetic

[keliot]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

Ridiculous Peng serves for the match twice and blows it - not having a good day:@:@:@:@

Was it windy or something? Either that or she choked bad. Never mind. We'll get it back when Zheng takes care of Mauresmo properly. :hope Despite this and failing to back Kleybanova after being enthusiastic about her here a couple of times before, I've done ok today so I'll go with you guys and back Stan to take Soderling. :drums

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

I think that it is as to give @3 against Murray is big underestimation on this boy.I think like that and i really dont care about your opinion :lol

To be fair they're both head cases and the best bet is level staking 2-1 wins because you know they're going three sets:lol Couple of years ago in clay season I made a ton off Ancic one tourney. He 3 set 4 rounds in a row, he'd be 4-1* and roar back, then the next set he'd drop 3 serves in a row. It should be in my past threads somewhere. Hamburg maybe? If you could bottle up what either of them can do for one set and apply it across the entire match you'd have two top ten players. Sadly, neither can never hold anything together:ok keliot, feel free to dump your leans in these threads anytime you're having them:cheers. I wanna get into WTA a lil more, but I haven't really followed it so I have no ammo :$ 'tua, rationale when slamming on picks would be beneficial:ok Sorry Mr I if I swayed ya towards Reynolds, he got monstered out there and I thought he walked in with a solid chance:$

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr I remember that tournament with Ancic, think I was calling him a god at one stage:lol

http://www.atptennis.com/5/en/players/playerprofiles/playeractivity.asp method=get>

http://www.atptennis.com/3/en/players/playerprofiles/default.asp method=get>

ATP Masters Series Hamburg, Germany ATP Masters Series, 15-May-06, O, Clay , Draw: 64

R64 :oppProfile('W300')'>Waske, Alexander (GER) 92 6-2 7-5 :makePopup('http://www.atptennis.com/5/en/players/playerprofiles/popMatchStats.asp?sd=Singles&trnnum=414&trnyear=2006&rnd=2&plyr=A385')'>Stats R32 :oppProfile('G476')'>Garcia-Lopez, Guillermo (ESP) 105 3-6 6-4 6-0 :makePopup('http://www.atptennis.com/5/en/players/playerprofiles/popMatchStats.asp?sd=Singles&trnnum=414&trnyear=2006&rnd=3&plyr=A385')'>Stats R16 :oppProfile('B676')'>Blake, James (USA) 7 4-6 7-5 7-6(3) :makePopup('http://www.atptennis.com/5/en/players/playerprofiles/popMatchStats.asp?sd=Singles&trnnum=414&trnyear=2006&rnd=4&plyr=A385')'>Stats Q :oppProfile('D402')'>Davydenko, Nikolay (RUS) 6 5-7 7-6(4) 6-3 :makePopup('http://www.atptennis.com/5/en/players/playerprofiles/popMatchStats.asp?sd=Singles&trnnum=414&trnyear=2006&rnd=5&plyr=A385')'>Stats S :oppProfile('R419')'>Robredo, Tommy (ESP) 12 5-7 4-6 :makePopup('http://www.atptennis.com/5/en/players/playerprofiles/popMatchStats.asp?sd=Singles&trnnum=414&trnyear=2006&rnd=6&plyr=A385')'>Stats

This Event Points: 225, ATP Ranking: 13, Prize Money: US $100,000 I'd already decided on Reynolds last night. There's been so many strange matches already in this tournament, not really the results but the way it's going down. Some guys you'd be sure could hold serve just getting hammered like Reynolds and Querrey. Roddick struggled aswell, Karlovic dropped serve - you think the serving conditions are really bad?:unsure

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

Despite this and failing to back Kleybanova after being enthusiastic about her here a couple of times before' date=' I've done ok today so I'll go with you guys and back Stan to take Soderling. :drums[/quote'] I have a good feeling about him. Seems a perfect style of play match up. With the worst suiting of hard for Soderling. I hope he does though, my 4 head parlay is still alive and I want it. :lol

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

I'd already decided on Reynolds last night. There's been so many strange matches already in this tournament' date=' not really the results but the way it's going down. Some guys you'd be sure could hold serve just getting hammered like Reynolds and Querrey. Roddick struggled aswell, Karlovic dropped serve - you think the serving conditions are really bad?:unsure[/quote'] Well, here's my style of thinking. Most of these guys have been on some really fast hard courts of late and Miami doesn't and never has allowed any pure power player to dictate that way. The clay courters tend to like it because of the misplays and all of the sudden they get the breathe of fresh air. So what I tend to lean on is clay courters who don't play headcase issues (eg, can hold a break when they get it) over hard courters who may be so trained on the hards they've been on. Then when it's clay courter vs clay courter, form usually wins. I'll admit though, a lot of dogs have won this one, and I'm still pissed i missed out on chela :tongue2, i don't know what I was thinking (yeah, he's clay.. but a headcase on hard and he's getting slow). What I'm looking for next round is players who didn't get chased to 40-40 often and held break. Anderson slugged out a win over what I would think is a tired Dj from Indian Wells. Andreev blitzed through his round and should outlast Anderson tomorrow. Keifer plays lefties well and had an easy one with J. N., Nadal will monster him I'd think. Bird looked really good, and had a very quick match. Ferrero could get bounced out easily. Canas had a horrible day serving in doubles, and gonzo should give him a run for his money. x-man and andreev both had good days serving in doubles and you'd have to favour x tomorrow. blake and santoro should be a close one, as long as blake doesn't start thinking too much and plays, he should be ok. 3 setter quite possible. Keeping in mind that Santoro plays Ljubicic well historically. Who knows between Moya and Mathieu, that's like the Murray & Ancic match today. Whoever can hold a break wins. I think the reason why this year has been odd is because how the draw worked out. Keifer gets a leftie which is like a gift to him, and one in bad form. Santoro gets someone who he can play well. Amalgro grabs an older clay courter that doesn't put pressure on him, Davy outlasts a quallie who makes him run all over the place. X-Man is hitting the ball very, very well. So is Andreev, and Bird isn't being a headcase. and as a side note, thanks for having me think about fixed profit staking when it comes to tennis through the quallie system. Really makes you look dog first, and be weary of the heavy favs (which.. is what you should do in tennis!) and this is where PL does better than most when it comes to tennis threads in particular. if you get away from *just* posting picks and generate discussion, there's a lot of money to be made. People talk about the 2.5k baseball games being a grind, I'd imagine tennis through worthwhile quallies, wta, atp/davis cup there's over 4 times that amount! Stan takes the first!, woohoo. Ferrer better come through, may hedge a lil since he's on two 6 unit wins. Then harrasses every game but Soderling holds his serve and then breaks for a set:(, and Ferrer isn't looking hot during the start. (and no, couldn't hedge, closed while I was typing this :$)

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Absolutely sick day yesterday. Can't believe the leads my guys threw away and lost. Need to rebound.... TURSUNOV @ 1.87 Betfair. Both very inconsistant guys and I'm just about willing to go with the fav here. Tursunov got a very tight win over Gasquet in the last round and mentally he seemed pretty strong so could be primed for a good week. Lopez came through against del Potro who had big problems holding serve suggesting he was struggling a bit coming back from injury. H2H is 1-0 to Lopez winning a very tight one in Toyko last year. Despite that, I like this match up for Tursunov, and this seems like a reasonable price. MATHIEU @ 1.9 Blue Sq. Another match that looks close to call, but I'm willing to make a decision. I saw Moya last week against Blake, and I thought he was rubbish. He wasn't getting much pop on his serve and was making a lot of easy errors from the back. In the first round here he had a big battle with Mahut coming through first set tie break 12-10 and that should have been a good match up for him so not impressed. Mathieu came through a tough one with Cilic and lost a tight one to Tsonga last week, but generally I think his form is a little better than Moyas. H2H is a nice 3-1 for Moya but all were when Moya was ranked higher (3 matches when Moya was top 10 and Mathieu was outside 70). Now Mathieu is the higher ranked guy (16 v 21) and I expect him to take care of Moya. Berdych v Ferrero OVER 22 games @ 1.83 Sportingbet. I see this being tight, and either a couple of tight sets or 3 sets will do. Ferrero was playing extremely well last week, especially against Ancic, and just seemed to be out of gas against Nalbandian in the next match. Berdych has been poor I think this year, but hammered Querrey in the last round. Because of that it's easy to favour Berdych in this match but he's so inconsitant I'm staying away against quality opposition. H2H is 1-0 to Berdych during HIS run in Paris in 3 very tight sets. Think we've got a good chance of the over here. ANDREEV @ 1.9 Sportingbet. Just have to go for Andreev here, as this is a massive let down spot for Anderson. He came through a massive match against Djokovic, and that was coming after qualifying and a final set tie break against Calleri. he's had a really tough week already, and I think he's going to find it tough to put in a big performance today. Andreevs form has been a bit dodgy this year, but the last two torunaments he has lost to Djokovic and eventual finalist Fish so no shame there. He hammered big serving Berrer in the first round and he should be too strong today. ZHENG @ 2.8 Boylesports. Bottom line I just want to go against Mauresmo again. She was really lucky in the last round against Peng who failed to serve out the match twice in the final set. Now compatriot Zheng gets to finish the job. Zheng is a quality player who missed 6 months of last year (not sure why??) and has struggled a little in her comeback. But she played some better stuff in Indian Wells and come through OK here aided by Petrovas early retirement. I think she can beat Mauresmo today and hopefully will have the bottle to actually finish the match! I'll look into the night matches later. robby, what was Canas' serving problems in the doubles? I wasn't following and can only see the team stats. Thanks.

[Crazy North]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

Sport	Tennis
Event	Lopez-Tursunov
Selection	Lopez
Strength	10/10
Date	30/03/2008
Bookmaker/Price	BetDirect @ 2.00 (Back)
Reasoning	In this match bookies rated Lopez as slim under-dog and i dont agree with them and i will try on Lopez as i can see him getting through next round. Lopez beat Del Potro easily in last round 6-2,6-4 and he proved that he is in good form since Dubai were he reached final and lost in three sets.His service is good and he is very aggresive and he tries to exploit his quickness and net play along with very hard shots. Tursunov beat in last in three sets Gasquet but Frecnhman is big chalker and he is not player for big tournaments and he is no near to his form and Russian played solid and after two tiebreaks i believe he is also little bit tired. They played one time so far and Lopez won last year in Tokyo 7-6,6-4 and i believe that Lopez here has much more chances to win than his opponent.

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Blistering start to yesterday hitting 3 huge dogs out of 4, but Ferrer and Stan pretty much calmed those waters in the evening. Almost got Davy out, but lost two TBers :$. 2-4 +4.46 but coulda been much better (+31.93 11-17 for the tourney) I really wish I woulda taken Tojo since both are in bad form, but the h2h is what swayed me. Sela winning suprised me even though I backed him first round, and I just missed fading Chela. Stan seemed to be out of condition/let down in the 3rd. The entire second set Stan kept a pretty clean service game and in return chased Soderling 40-40 time and time again. Then got broken for the set, never regained composure from there. Mr I, Net hits mainly, low 1 serve %. I want to say 2 of the df's were his (I think there's 3 or 4?). Keep in mind that he had 5 double faults against Sam and only had a 54% 1st serve as well. lil bonus stat, he had 11 break points to save against Sam. Warburg had every chance to win but couldn't close out. Almost half of his service games sat around 40-40, he's not striking it well. But Gonzo is a light switch player (on and off in the same match) so it's a scary lean. I'm kinda in a spot today. I traditionally look for quality dogs but with the massive run of them the past two rounds, most of them are gone. Even worse is that I agree with the market on a lot of these matches today. When I came back to tennis my goal was to average 20 units per tourney week (or two if it's a format like this one). That being said, I'm up +11.93 on my goal, so I'm going to spend it on value and see if I can get get it up a few units. I've never really bet WTA before, but there is a full card so I've been looking at some match ups, and I'll play some low risk value bets. 1 unit Wozniacki - 1.5 games o Srebotnik @ 2 (returns 1 unit) Woz looked brilliant a couple of days ago and it should only help that she had a day off to rest the ankle. Srebotnik will have her hands full. 1 unit Sugiyama o Hantuchova @ 5.5 (returns 4.5 units) 4.5 is too large on the doubles partner. Sugiyama has had some success against Hantuchova in the past on hards and has played very well leading into this match. It will be a lot closer than the 4.5 odds suggest. 1 unit Safarova o Jankovic @ 4.50 (returns 3.5 units) Another 4.5 is too large. Jankovic was down 4-0 yesterday in the first set only to roar back and get into a tie breaker. Just to lose that set. She did finish out well, but you have to question how much was taken out of her during that. Considering that was late last night and she's playing this afternoon makes this a value bet. 1 unit de Brito o Peer @ 4.50 (returns 3.5 units) So you have a 14 yo who has two great wins under her belt this week versus an inform Peer. You have to question if she can keep this up, but when you do, you seem to lean towards a possible upset. If de Brito doesn't over think what she's done and continues to play, she has better value than the 4.5 represents. 1 unit Davenport o Ivanovic @ 3.10 (returns 2.1 units) Davenport says she's past her niggling injuries which gives her a chance. She'll be slower for sure. But if she can power and hold her serve, this could be a lot closer than the 3 to 1 suggests. 2 units Zheng o Mauresmo @ 2.65 (returns 3.30 units) Mauresmo lost that match yesterday, but had an opponent that collapsed so she squeaked in. If Zheng doesn't fold in similar fashion she has every chance to knock Mauresmo down a peg or two. I'll post ATP later as there's only one match early. Dmitri is the lean, but he's played two very long matches to get here and it looks like a 3 setter in the making.

[keliot]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr I've taken Wozniacki and Zheng. Zheng for Mr.I's reasons and Woz for her terrific form. PP had her @ 1.9 but that's gone unfortunately. Srebotnik is better than Bartoli imo, and I'm concerned that she's taken sets off Henin and Hantuchova and beaten Chakavetadze this year. But her serve is fairly poor so I see a 3 setter either way. I dunno if Vaidisova had a problem or not but it was a pretty comprehensive win for Kleybanova, 13 aces and 80% first serve points won ain't bad, so I'll take her @ 2.9ish over Zvonareva who's played a lot of matches this year so maybe there's a bit of fatigue creeping in. (?) :hope

[keliot]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

keliot, feel free to dump your leans in these threads anytime you're having them:cheers. I wanna get into WTA a lil more, but I haven't really followed it so I have no ammo :$

Sure thing! Like i said, Kleyabnova's worth a shot today if she keeps up those serve stats.

[aldric]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Any thoughts on the Santoro v Blake match? This game stood out like a sore thumb for me, I just can't see past Blake. Blake leads 3-1 on h2h (all on hard courts), that loss was earlier this year when Blake wasn't in the best of form. Santoro has played 2 'has been's' so far this tournament and Blake with his power will be a step too far . Anyone else's thoughts?

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

Any thoughts on the Santoro v Blake match? This game stood out like a sore thumb for me, I just can't see past Blake. Blake leads 3-1 on h2h (all on hard courts), that loss was earlier this year when Blake wasn't in the best of form. Santoro has played 2 'has been's' so far this tournament and Blake with his power will be a step too far . Anyone else's thoughts?

Blake should be able to hit through Santoro fairly easily. However, this match is all in Blakes head. If he gets rattled by Santoros game or starts playing too defensively then Santoro has a chance. To me, it's not a bad price for Blake, but I'm not really a fan of him as a big fav pre-match:unsure. Good luck if you go for it:ok

[aldric]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

Blake should be able to hit through Santoro fairly easily. However, this match is all in Blakes head. If he gets rattled by Santoros game or starts playing too defensively then Santoro has a chance. To me, it's not a bad price for Blake, but I'm not really a fan of him as a big fav pre-match:unsure. Good luck if you go for it:ok

Cheers mate, pretty much what I thought as well..... I really like Santoro's game, it is certainly different and it needs to be given his age and althetisism. I have gone for it already as detailed in the glory hunt section!

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Massive odds for reasonable dogs. A decent quallie going against Davy, who struggled against a quallie yesterday @ 4.50? Roddick looked unsettled and gets Minar @ 7.50? Monaco who looked great yesterday vs Ancic who "survived" @ 2.75? Almagro looks a solid chance against Youzhny @ 2.70 Sela should go down tomorrow, though the odds aren't great for him doing so. There's some massive bones in that bunch 1 more unit on Safarova o Jankovic @ 4.50. Been reading on what Jankovic went through yesterday. Down 4-1 to make a run to lose in a tie breaker. Then in the third set was down 5-1 to rally back. Then down in the tie breaker by 3 match points and rallied back again. She may be out of air and this is a massive price. I'll look at Kleyabnova in more detail after some of these bets go through, she's a little later in the day so I'll see how bad off I am. And thanks, if I can get reasonable dogs in both then I feel a lot more at ease. If you were a favorites bettor ya woulda lost ya ass in Miami!

[Crazy North]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

Sport	Tennis
Event	Mallise-Stepanek
Selection	Mallise
Strength	10/10
Date	30/03/2008
Bookmaker/Price	5Dimes @ 2.45 (Back)
Reasoning	In this match i must go on Malisse as Belgian is bit underestimated here against veteran Stepanek which form is day-to-day and he can beat everybody but also he can lose to any player. Mallise made bug suprise in last round beating 4th seeded Nalbandian 6-1,6-3 very comfortable and easy and he showed that he is on road to get back on older tracks and he can do something solid here.His service looks good and he is mixing lot of different shots here and i cant see him losing here if he would play like that he can do that. Stepanek is player which form is very unstabile and i would never bet on him as he few times really blow his chances easily.He beat Grosjean but Frenchman is not in form and that win is not measure. H2H is 2-2 and on hard 2-1 for Mallise and i believe that Belgian who actually lives in Florida and he is used in this conditions can win here and i rate this match 50:50.

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Good call on Dmitri, another loong match. and it was a three setter;)

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Cheers mate. But forget what I said about Tursunov being strong mentally this week:lol:lol:lol

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr lol

[keliot]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Woz struggling a bit...:$ but it's gone to 3 like I expected.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Thanks for reminding me about Jankovic SAFAROVA @ 4.00 Ladbrokes. Nearly missed this today because I didn't think that they were playing today. After Jankovic came through an erpic last night I don't fancy her at all today. She won 6-7 (7-9) 6-2 7-6 (11-9) and was well down in both the tiebreak sets so mentally and physically that would have been a huge effort. Coming back about 18 hours after that is going to be very tough. Safarova has been poor for a while but she has shown that she has massive potential and a huge game. If Safarova plays well then she could take out a full strength Jankovic so have to have a go here. H2H is 2-0 to Jankovic but both were pretty close. Taken this at a 1 ball bookie for obvious reasons;)

[stipe86st]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

Taken this at a 1 ball bookie for obvious reasons;)

what does this mean? i am not good in english, sorry

[bet_man]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Mr.Intensity; any opinion about Ivanovic-Davenport match?

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

what does this mean? i am not good in english, sorry

Bookmakers have different rules regarding retirements. Some void if there is a retirement during the match (William Hill, Stan James, Paddy Power etc). Some have a rule where 1 set has to be completed for bets to stand (Betfair) and some allow bets to stand so long as the match has started, these are called "1 ball bookies" (Ladbrokes, Coral). Noticing bookies have very different starting times for Jankovic match, it won't be on for another couple of hours.