ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr 6-7 (+19.17 units) for the tourney. No clue what happened to Kunitsyn. He monstered Tojo up til the suspension, then got monstered after :( Question for punters lounge tennis bettors. Can you name a bookie that does the following? - Allows US punters (I moved to the US from Aussie early last year, sigh) - Has Set betting early in the tourney - Allows Games betting early in the tourney - Doesn't have shit prices Berrer 2.60 & Moya 1.56 - 1.97 units to win 6 Berrer looked really good and has a very good chance coming through with this. I'm backing Moya as my juice as all I want to do today is fade Mahut Mathieu 1.67 & Moya 1.56 - 3.77 units to win 6 Mathieu lost on the faster hards to Cilic earlier in the year, but should have a solid chance of winning on a slower Miami. Moya plays late, so I may hedge later should the dogs come through. Back later with the rest, have a couple of servers I need to update:(

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr No idea about the American thing mate:unsure

[Crazy North]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

Sport	Tennis
Event	Radwanska-Larcher de Brito
Selection	Under 18.5 games
Strength	10/10
Date	28/03/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Betway @ 1.65 (Back)
Reasoning	In this match everything except easy win for Radwanska will be big suprise as young Polish girl is three classes better than her today opponent. Radwanska is having very good year she made a lot of good matches and get some excellent result like quarter finals in AO and that is her biggest succes in big tournaments.Now here she wants to get best of herself and today she will have easy job. Her today opponent is 15 year-old girl from Portugal who made big upset in last round knocking out Makarova but that match was very strange as Makarova had 6-2,5-1 and service for win but then Brito made great run but that wasnt so much her effort as Makarova made a lot double faults and unforced errore and Brito looked nervous as this is her first big tournament in carrer. She has potential but she is way under Radwanska so i expect nervous start from her and an easy win for Radwanska as i think that Brito will be making a lot of UE mistakes.

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr I shoulda became a pommie ;)

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Call these two hunches. Getting them cheap Montanes 6.50 & Gonzo 1.29 - .82 units to win 6 Played well in the first round and may suprise the other clay courter. Warburg 5.00 & Gonzo 1.29 - 1.11 units to win 6.03 Canas has a nice history here and all, but it's a cheap hunch. I like these Malisse 3.75 & Gonzo 1.29 - 1.57 units to win 6 Same hunch as Mr I. Malisse looked real good in round 1, and Nalby isn't all there at the moment. Tursunov 2.80 & Gonzo 1.29 - 2.31 to win 6.01 I like Tursunov's chances here. He has a strong head to head in three recent meetings going 2-1. Gas' got him in the last meeting during Tursunov little mini slump. Look for him to get that back today as he looked mighty impressive in round 1. Querry 2.70 & Gonzo 1.29 - 2.43 to win 6.01 The Bird has always been a headcase when it comes to the big tournies. Querry likes the hard courts and had a very nice showing in round 1. Out of all of the qualifiers he's the one I like most going to round 3. :hope

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr So you think Gonzo might win?:loon

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Well, I think his value should be around 1.20. But the idea was to keep the liabilties down throughout the days play and see where those dogs stood at the end of the day, then hedge against Gonzo for a cover. If the dogs lose then I lose more because with fixed staking my liabilities would be higher without the 30% juice addition. So either way, parlay or not I'd lose regardless, but this way less. If they win then my liability becomes Gonzo, but I'd have so much value wrapped up in him that I should be able to hedge out to cover his loss. That's my thinking anyways, feel free to correct those thoughts. I must admit that it sounded good thinking it, but didn't type out that way.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Good luck mate - I've just never been a follower of that type of thinking, especially if you're going to hedge. Also hope Gonzo loses:tongue2

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Is it just me, or does Santoro seem to have value on the way these courts are playing? He did look good last round. Could the Magician do some magic in Miami? Sometimes you really have to love Blake. His serve isn't as solid as it should be, but he holds in there till he's up 6-5. Then he amps up against Seppi and gets him @ 15-40. Then Seppi double faults the set. lol, brilliant.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Santoro was 2.75 last night pretty much everywhere and I still decided to leave it at that price. Don't think Ljubicic is playing awfully and I make him a decent fav:unsure:unsure

[keliot]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr I was tempted to give Santoro a go but have been busy and ran out of time. Wozniacki did injure her ankle before her 2 hour long match with Pironkova, still backed her cautiously though. :hope

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Woz does look good starting this one out and as long as you're on an injury is void book then it looks to be a nice bet! I couldn't pull the gun and go on the Magician. about .50 too cheap for me. Anderson looks pretty damn good against Djokovic, but starting to unravel.

[keliot]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Nice one Wozniacki. :clap Really thought that would be much tougher, injury or no injury. I see that 15 year old Lacherde Brito kid has done it again. :eek

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Oh dear, really struggling today:sad Need some magic from Querrey, X-Man and Cuevas:hope

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Just in the interest of keeping records accurate, 3.38 on Cuevas if X-Man wins (which looks very likely). even if gonzo loses +2.62 if he wins. Sigh, won't try that experiment again ;), but at least it didn't cost me anything. Some notes Dmitri had another looong match, even with the day off I don't know how much stamina he can keep up. This guy by the past two days is a betfair market trader's dream. mathieu didn't win hardly any second serve points, and barely got any of his firsts in. santoro did it again, but it was more on Ljubicic being a headcase than it was excellent play. moya doesn't look good at all, luckily looks to have taken the sails out of mahut in a long tie breaker. didnt pay attention to the rest :hope for a better day tomorrow.

[Big Alf]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

Ta! Alf (My dad is an Alf fan and collector if that's the reference)

I presume you are refering to A.L.F Robby? If so then no its not, its actually referenced on something a little closer to home for you if I've read you're Oz relocation post correctly, ya flamin galah ;) Props to all the tippers in this thread thus far though, because of them I feel disappointed that I have only broken even today after a couple of days of very nice profit, shame on you! :lol GL for tomorrow lads, will try to follow but have a Jeff Stelling Super Special Soccer Saturday Drinking Game to attend to :beer:puke

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr 9-13 (+27.47 units) for the tourney thus far. Reynolds over Youzhny 4.00 - 2 units to win 6 I like Reynolds in this position. Got his revenge match win over Young in the qualifiers and beat Safin to start the tourney. The main thing I don't like about him is his apt for tie breakers. He has quite the issues closing people out, though he tends to do decent when he gets to the breaker at hand. Out of 86 matches in the past 12 months he has a total of 41 sets that resulted in tie breakers. He had two against Safin which he won both. Youzhny has a poor record here @ 1-5, has a 50% tie breaker record for the past 12mo (11-11) (3-2 on hard, 5-4 on clay.. so about the same depending on how the courts play tomorrow). Youzhny also has some suspect loses, Santoro on hard?, Tipsarevic? 4-1 is just way too much for me to let go by on this quallie. Acasuso over Hewitt 3.75 - 2.18 units to win 6 Hewitt has some suspect losses as of late as well, though he went a couple of rounds in Indian Wells, but I just don't know if he can keep up in speed with Acasuso. Acasuso had a great clay season, hasn't really followed it up with a hard court season to brag about, but Miami is for sure the "clay of hards" and he's a very solid dark horse to consider. Watching him go against Ventura he hardly lost a serve, it was a quick and total blitz. He's never gotten past the round of 64 before and today has every chance of doing so. Bolelli over Kohl. 3.50 - 2.40 units to win 6 Kol had a great start of a year and again, has went into a funk. Losing to Kee, Zverev, Nadal (ok, 80% of the atp will, but this is hard court), is 0-3 at Miami. Bolelli likes it here, a run through quallies and up to 32 losing to Ferrer (who also, does well here) last year was his only year here, but considering how he took the qualifier a couple of days ago he's for sure a value bet @ 3.50 worth taking. Benneteau over Karlovic 2.70 & Ferrer over Tojo 1.36 - 2.24 to win 6.01 Ferrer is the banker in my eyes of the day (of value). He has a h2h 2-0 over tojo, solid record at Miami, and I still don't know why the suspension was for, but ToJo had a really rough start first round. Benneteau is going up against someone who is under struggles as of late and has a poor record in Miami with some "i wish I could hide those" losses behind them. Leans on Chela (success in Miami, Minar's limited hard court this year) though I hate to admit it. Murray over Ancic Ancic looked awful in the first round, but backing Murray is hard for me Monaco has said to be looking good on the practice courts I may have a couple more but I had to stay up and do a few things, so we'll start off with these. I may dig into some wta to see what's around, we'll see tomorrow. As always, GL everyone!

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Forecast for Saturday Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. Highs in the lower 80s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph becoming east 15 mph in the afternoon. Updated on: 29/03/2008 11:06:00 AM Forecast for Saturday Night Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 70s. East winds 10 to 15 mph. If anyone wants it. Plenty of clay courters getting through, so I don't know if it makes a difference.

presume you are refering to A.L.F Robby? If so then no its not, its actually referenced on something a little closer to home for you if I've read you're Oz relocation post correctly, ya flamin galah

Well, to be fair, I'm an American who lived in Aussie for 5 years and came back (don't hold it against me!, I'm a dual citizen;)). I worked for Telstra (again, don't hold that against me:() and I get the meaning now. And since you mentioned the Galah (well, kinda lol) the Willy Wag Tail has to be the most kick ass bird ya'll got!. (again, don't hold it against me). Go Tigers! Have fun at the drinking game, don't drink any budwiser

[Crazy North]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

Sport	Tennis
Event	Ferrer-Johansson
Selection	Ferrer
Strength	10/10
Date	29/03/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Blue Square @ 1.44 (Back)
Reasoning	In this match i can see only one quality player and that is David Ferrer.Spanyard is having solid season but he and we all know that he can better.He was eliminated in IV to Lee and now he doesnt want to repeat sam mistakes and he is interested here only to win.Johansson is veteran player who knocked Kunitsyn in last round in three sets and now he will have much harder job against Ferrer who is class better than.Swede is slow and his movemenent is not so good and i cant see him making anything out of this games.Odds on Ferrer are not great but they look safe to me and in H2H is 2-0 to Ferrer.

[Crazy North]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

Sport	Tennis
Event	Soderling-Wawrinka
Selection	Soderling
Strength	10/10
Date	29/03/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.67 (Back)
Reasoning	Yeah everybody is talking how Soderling is a player for minor tournaments but i have to dissagree with that.Swede is back this year after a injury and he looks very good espceially on his service and his shots are very powerfull.He trashed Koubek in first round 6-0,6-1 giving him only one game.Wawrinka is good player who has quality but his service is not near or close to Soderling and his adventage is play in field and his backhand but service not.Swede improved in field and he can beat here Wawrinka odds on him are solid and i can see him making good result here.

[Crazy North]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

Sport	Tennis
Event	Ancic-Murray
Selection	Ancic
Strength	10/10
Date	29/03/2008
Bookmaker/Price	>10bet @ 2.87 (Back)
Reasoning	Odds on Ancic here is pure gift and this boy is not so worse than Murray at all just opposite i can see him winning today.Murray had good start but then during last couple of weeks he struggled a lot and his form is not great.He is making lot mistakes and his morale dropped.Ancic on other side is hungry for tennis.He was injured long period and now he is back and he wants to play as much as he can and he is enjoying that.He knocked Simon in two sets but in 2nd he could win in TB but he didnt had luck to do so.In final in Marseille Murray beat Ancic but that match could go either way and now Mario is in better form while Murray form is dropping and i can see her an upset.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Stinking 1-4 yesterday but Malisse winning at a big price so it was only a small loss on the day. VERDASCO @ 1.87 Pinnacle. Both guys who tend to disappoint, but I'm willing to go for Verdasco as a small fav. I think he's been playing OK recently, taking 3 set losses against Murray and Haas isn't so bad. I think he could like the conditions here and get revenge on Tipsarevic. H2H is 1-0 to Tipsarevic in the Aussie Open in 3 very tight sets when Tipsy was playing much better. Recently he's really struggled, and doesn't seem to be serving well at all which is just getting him into problems. Unconvincing 3 set win over Lu in the first round and I see Verdasco getting the better of him here. MINAR @ 2.5 Stan James. 2.75 was readily available on this early, quite annoyed to miss that but this still seems pretty solid. Minar has done extremely well this week coming through qualifying and Rochus extremely comfortably. He's the type of flat hitter that when it starts to click he can put a great run together. He's clearly playing well this week and could well over power Chela here. Chelas form is still woeful. Tursunov gifted him a win last week before he got battered by Gasquet and I don't fancy him first match here. Chela did well here last year but he's nowhere near that form. Expect a strong performance from Minar and Chela will have to play well to stop him. SCHIAVONE @ 1.68 Pinnacle. I'm really liking Schiavone this year and this looks like another solid price on her. She backed up her form from Dubai with a good showing in Indian Wells, pushing eventual champion Ivanovic extremely hard. I'm not really a fan of Cibulkova, her results against bigger players have tended to come when they've been in poor form. She still has some average early losses and I think she's quite over rated at the moment. I fully expect Schiavone to be too solid in this one and get the win.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr REYNOLDS @ 4.00 Sportingbet. This big price looks very interesting. Youzhny only has 1 strange win over Simon to show for his last 3 tournaments and has publicly stated that he is low on confidence. First match up I really wouldn't want to touch him, especially at this sort of price. Reynolds just got over the line against Safin but should gain some confidence from that and could push on in this one. He's very serve orientated and will need to serve really well, but should push Youzhny. The way Youzhny is playing he's nowhere near invincible on his serve and I think Reynolds can create some chances. This one should be much closer than the odds suggest.

[christiano]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

Tip Detail

Sport	Tennis
Event	Lisicki - Koryttseva
Selection	Korytsseva
Strength	10/10
Date	29/03/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 2.63 (Back)
Reasoning	I don't get this odds at all.At Australian Open it was Koryttseva who was favourite at about 1.80-1.90.And now suddenly Lisicki is strong favourite in their match.Something changed drastically???I don't think so.Maria is leading H2H 3:1.Two matches were played on clay but the other two were on hard and Maria managed to win against Lisicki slighty before Australian Open.At AO Lisicki was in great form and on a great run and that's why she won against Koryttseva so comfortably.Today it will be another story and Maria surely has more chances to win this one than the odds are suggesting.Lisicki was not impressive at all in her first match against young american player Vandeweghe.Maria also played some matches here already in qualies.She losed her second match but she already knew that she will play in main tournament so she just gave away that match.She was serving well so far and if today she will keep that up she can win against Sabine.Value imo.

[yves]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr does anyone else than Crazy North agree on Ferrer ? thanks!

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

does anyone else than Crazy North agree on Ferrer ? thanks!

Yeah he should win. Also Ferrer has an excellent record ehre and clearly likes the conditions. But his form isn't great and I don't really fancy a fav at that sort of price today (given the strange results so far) otherwise I would take it.

[keliot]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr I took the following all at around 2.5 last night, though prices have dropped on all but Sela since then. By my estimation, the favourites here have all been short of either form, confidence or fitness for some time and their opponents are quite capable of taking advantage. Sela v Robredo Zheng v Petrova Peng v Mauresmo Garbin v Bammer

[StrangeTrip]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

Event	Juan Monaco - Ryan Sweeting
Selection	Ryan Sweeting
Strength	10/10
Date	29/03/2008
Bookmaker/Price	>Unibet @ 3.70 (Back)
Reasoning	Sweeting is a young American in full progress which plays almost only in the USA. He went out of qualifications by beating Kendrick, Hartfield and Volandri. He should be in full confidence with those victories even if 2 last ones can be more considered as specialists of Clay. Juan Monaco is him more a player of slow surface even if his results on Hard are not bad.He plays finally little in the United States. Moreover he has never leaked out in Miami. His statistics this season are just correct, he did not win 2 matches in a row for 2 months what is not good for this kind of player. I thus think that a surprise is not to be excluded on this match and I find the odd on Sweeting really high.

Event	Juan Ignacio Chela - Ivo Minar
Selection	Ivo Minar
Strength	10/10
Date	29/03/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 2.50 (Back)
Reasoning	Chela really makes a difficult start of season. It has been months since he manages to have victories in a row. At Indian Wells he beat Tursunov whowas hawful before being flattened by Gasquet. He recors in 2008 7 victories for 8 defeats. It is the opposite for Ivo Minar who wins many matches. Even if it is sometimes in Challenger, it is very good for the confidence : 17 won for 7 defeats. He is indeed in legs here in Miami because he went out of qualifications notably by beating Capdeville before beating Olivier Rochus in an one-way match. In 2007 he beats players as Troicki, Lee or Isner. Chela is going to have to become used to conditions very different from Indian Wells. His opponent has already had 3 matches to get acquainted with the conditions of play. The shape is towards the tcheque, what makes it a light favourite.

[mrki_tua]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Don't know why is Ančić gift?!? he played awfull last match, Murray is in form and this surface suites Murray well, he's great on return etc. Also Benneteau played 3 sets against Schuettler, while Karlović is serving great and his game is solid those days, hig rebound surface suites his game, IMO Karlović win. Great value on Minar today IMO. Monaco will beat Minar, he has many weapons to dismiss lowest ranked player left in draw. Reynolds is serving very good, probable upset. Ferrer and Soderling are great value IMO as well as Hewitt. :cow:spank:gimme

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Bolelli pretty much paid for the rest of my day, so I'm going to chase some value bets that didn't look as good last night for me, but may be a nice suprise. Gulbis over Davydenko 3.75 - 2.18 units to win 6 You have to admit that Davy is suspect at this price. He's never been all that sound against players who are willing to attack him. 3.75 on a qualifier that has nothing to lose by doing so is just too much value. Almagro 1.67 & Monaco 1.33 & Wawrinka 2.20 & Ferrer 1.30 - 1.12 units to win 6.01 Am I throwing my money away here? Possibly, but I like the odds of these four getting through. Wawrinka has a great chance to upset someone who leverages blistering speeds of indoor courts. Miami doesn't have the speed, and the weather isn't going to give the environment. Ferrer as prev. noted should come clean. Monaco is a lean I have against the american Almagro is a very nice clay courter who can play on the slower hards should show Clement out of Miami. It's cheap enough to play for. I'll look at the later games in the WTA in a bit and since the prices are out early on tomorrow I'm going to walk over there too. Some strong leans Andreev - Anderson on a let down and Andreev looked absolutely great. Bird over a finicky Ferrero Gonzo over Canas X man could continue the run over stepanek blake should be too much for the Magician Moya and Mathieu is going to be the loosest match of the day Keifer will wish Nadal is left handed, and blasted off the court when he finds out he isn't.