ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

[Mr Intensity]

In here:ok Just saw Stan James have Federer as 2.75 favourite! He might win but that price is awful. Really tough draw for him aswell, each round could be a problem. Could be Isner, Soderling/Wawrinka, Hewitt, Tsonga/Roddick, Davydenko/Murray, Djokovic/Nadal:loon:loon. Djokovic actually looks to have the easiest quarter, only really an inconsistant Gasquet (who has to come through Tursunov, Berdych first) you'd think could cause any problems. But 3.25 on him after just winning Indian Wells doesn't really jump out:unsure. Mmm Blake @ 34 has a decent draw in the 4th quarter, possibly have to come through Nalbandian and get revenge on Nadal. Might make a play on that, will decide tomorrow.

[KurtFurtmustahl]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr i made bet today for troicki-bohil 1 @1,46 and kunitsyn-gremelmayer 1 @1,65...what do you think about these two guys MR Intensity??

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

i made bet today for troicki-bohil 1 @1' date='46 and kunitsyn-gremelmayer 1 @1,65...what do you think about these two guys MR Intensity??[/quote'] I really don't like betting in qualifying! Troicki has a lot of potential but I think he's been quite disappointing on tour so far. Got a decent win over Boggy in the first round and clearly has more potential in this game. I don't know much about Bohli, but he did finish last year well in challengers and early this year in the USA earlier this year (including beating Becker, C Rochus, Kim and Kendrick). He's had a couple of retirements lately with a left knee problem but got a nice win over Mirnyi in the first round of qualies here. Troicki is clearly favourite because of his class, but I certainly wouldn't be taking 1.46, I'd make him more like 1.65 to be honest. The main thing about Kunitsyn is that he is very very inconsistant. I'd struggle to back him as a fav here, I'd rate these guys very similarly and recent form is pretty close too. Kunitsyn got a couple of wins in Delray Beach in Feb but has been pretty up and down since then. He easily beat Petzschner in the first round which is a good win so you may say he's hitting form here. Gremelmayr is a player I like, and he's done OK this year. Strange scheduling playing in the US since the Aussie Open then going over to Zagreb for 1 tournament but I'm sure he had reasons (maybe couldn't get straight in the main draw USA that week??? I'm not up on those things really). Like Kunitsyn he got an easy win in the first round over Jimmy Wang who has been awful this year so wouldn't read much into that. Think the speed of this court probably favours Kunitsyn a bit, so for that I'd make him a slight fav, think he should be about 1.8 for this one. Are those prices at Fonbet or somewhere like that? Stan James also have a market (they have Troicki @ 1.53). That's a big problem with qualifiers, not many places have prices so you've got to work with a 106% book or similar and end up with crap prices. Good luck with your bets:ok

[KurtFurtmustahl]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr thanks mate you gave a bit of confidence and a bit of doubt...i´m not following those challengers and small tournaments closely so i´m betting mostly according to my good feeling. hopefully it wont dissapoint me today...

[Tulenos]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

I really don't like betting in qualifying! Troicki has a lot of potential but I think he's been quite disappointing on tour so far. Got a decent win over Boggy in the first round and clearly has more potential in this game. I don't know much about Bohli, but he did finish last year well in challengers and early this year in the USA earlier this year (including beating Becker, C Rochus, Kim and Kendrick). He's had a couple of retirements lately with a left knee problem but got a nice win over Mirnyi in the first round of qualies here. Troicki is clearly favourite because of his class, but I certainly wouldn't be taking 1.46, I'd make him more like 1.65 to be honest. The main thing about Kunitsyn is that he is very very inconsistant. I'd struggle to back him as a fav here, I'd rate these guys very similarly and recent form is pretty close too. Kunitsyn got a couple of wins in Delray Beach in Feb but has been pretty up and down since then. He easily beat Petzschner in the first round which is a good win so you may say he's hitting form here. Gremelmayr is a player I like, and he's done OK this year. Strange scheduling playing in the US since the Aussie Open then going over to Zagreb for 1 tournament but I'm sure he had reasons (maybe couldn't get straight in the main draw USA that week??? I'm not up on those things really). Like Kunitsyn he got an easy win in the first round over Jimmy Wang who has been awful this year so wouldn't read much into that. Think the speed of this court probably favours Kunitsyn a bit, so for that I'd make him a slight fav, think he should be about 1.8 for this one. Are those prices at Fonbet or somewhere like that? Stan James also have a market (they have Troicki @ 1.53). That's a big problem with qualifiers, not many places have prices so you've got to work with a 106% book or similar and end up with crap prices. Good luck with your bets:ok

These look like prices from local Czech/Slovak bookies - where you have to pay 10 percent of handling fee as well (making the Troicki price more like 1.37 in effect). SJ are about right, imo;)

[KurtFurtmustahl]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr actually it is slovak bookie with handling fee of 5 perc... btw. is there any page to watch livescore of this qualification? cause kunitsyn match started at 15:00 and still no change...

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Great site http://www.tennisform.com/ Click on Miami under live score links.

[KurtFurtmustahl]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr kunitsyn won 6:1 6:2 didn´t hurt that much i watched it on local tv teletext the refresh was like after 5 games but brought me a smile on my face...thaks MR!

[Crazy North]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

Sport	Tennis
Event	Guillermo Garcia Lopez-Benjamin Becker
Selection	Garcia-Lopez win
Strength	10/10
Date	25/03/2008
Bookmaker/Price	>Paddy Power @ 1.67 (Back)
Reasoning	Not much too say about this match as i see Spanyard as a clear winner here.He lost in some tournaments easily but he prepared a lot for today's match and will not let ant suprise.Becker played hard match yesterday against dog Wessels and he won only on muscles that match in three sets.He allowed 8 chances to break and it will be hard to Garcia agressive play today.Spanyars is better server and on net too he is moving good for his height and i cant see mediocre player like Becker to do something here.They played once this year in San Jose and Lopez won 3-6,7-6,6-4 after hard battle and i expect less interesting match today and win for Lopez.

[StrangeTrip]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

Event	Mardy Fish - Arnaud Clement
Selection	Arnaud Clement
Strength	10/10
Date	26/03/2008
Bookmaker/Price	BetandWin @ 3.90 (Back)
Reasoning	Mardy Fish has just lived the most beautiful week of his career to Indian Wells. He beat Andreev, Davydenko, Hewitt, Nalbandian and Federer to be defeated only in finale by Djokovic in 3 sets. But I think that he is going to need to blow after such exploits. Physically he made improves but that is going to be hard for him to carry on. Mentally also I am not sure he will give so much and that he is also motivated. In front of him Clément is a tough opponent who gives few points. His shape and his results are really terrible. But he came back from injury and finds little by little his game and the physical condition. He has good stats against the big servers like Fish: 3-0 against Llodra, 1-1 against Guccione, 3-3 against Karlovic of whom a magnificent victory to the last US Open. Indeed as many players of double he excels in return of service and passings. 2 players met twice on hard in 2003 and 2004, a victory each. For me Clement has much more chance to win that let suggest the odds.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

i made bet today for troicki-bohil 1 @1' date='46 and kunitsyn-gremelmayer 1 @1,65...what do you think about these two guys MR Intensity??[/quote'] Nice 2-0 mate:ok. Troicki coming back from saving a match point on Bohils serve in the second set:loon

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Couple for me to start the week. Might have a play or two in the matches involving qualifiers, but can't see any prices tonight. SEPPI @ 1.9 Boylesports. Seppi looks a solid fav to me here. He should enjoy the slow conditions here and the heavier balls. I think Gicquel will struggle with his flashy style and make a lot of errors. Gicquel has been very disappointing this year apart from 1 challenger indoors at home and I can't see him doing much here. I've been impressed with Seppi, he's getting the job done on different surfaces and it's tended to be good players that have taken him out. Seppi should grind this one out. KOROLEV @ 2.94 Pinnacle. This one should be good! Both these guys play very aggressive from the back, and both should enjoy the match up. Expect lots of winners and unforced errors, and not a lot of rallies! H2H is 1-0 to Korolev in a tight 3 setter last year in Indian Wells, and a similar result would not surprise me here. It's just a matter of who pulls off the shots at the big moments, and hence I think it's a pretty close match up. Tursunov won Sydney at the start of the year, but has really struggled since then. He served for the match last week against Chela, but then collapsed. It's that sort of thing that makes me think in the big moments he won't be up for it this week, so I'm going for Korolev. Korolev as usual has been very up and down, and hasn't been in great form this year, but as I said he'll like the match up and it should be close.

[Crazy North]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

Sport	Tennis
Event	Mahut-Mayer
Selection	Mahut
Strength	10/10
Date	26/03/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Pinnacle Sports @ 1.51 (Back)
Reasoning	In this match i can see Frenchman taking this one as i rate him as a better player than Mayer. Mahut is having solid season he won some games he lost some games and his biggest succes was semis in Marseille this year were he lost to Ancic.He prepared solid for IV but he ran to Federer who played brilliant and Mahut was trashed by winning only 2 games and that is really bad.Now he wants to improve and will be certainly more focus to play as he cannot allow another setback to himself.He is good server and if he can serve good today we could easily see him winning this one easily. On the other hand we have 54th ranked player Florian Mayer who also like his opponent relay lot on his service.He missed some tournaments this year and will be looking to win this match to start some good period,but i dont believe him so much as he is not so stabile player and he can easily rush in many mistakes. In H2H Mayer leads 1-0 7-6,6-3 in Lyon two years ago and now i think it is time for Mahut to get even. This players have similar possibilities:strong serve and they are same height and age and we should expect and interesting encounter beetwen them but Mahut is player in filed than Mayer and that is his adventage here and he must exploit.I believe that Mahut will take this in two sets with one break in each.

[Crazy North]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

Sport	Tennis
Event	Seppi-Gicquel
Selection	Seppi win
Strength	10/10
Date	26/03/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Ladbrokes @ 1.72 (Back)
Reasoning	Odds here are setup high for my taste and i must take it and play on Seppi here as i think he is far better than Frenchman. Seppi improved a lot this year.He had some good tournaments and he won Bergamo and lost in semis in Rotterdam to Soderling but before that he knock Hewwit and Nadal two top players and he played very good.In IV he wasnt be so lucky as he ran out to Djokovic in first round but he played excellent first service and lost it in TB but he didnt dissapointed me at all and he showed good tennis.His service is good and he also moves pretty well and i see him taking this one. On the other side we have Gicquel a player who's aged has past as he has 31 years now and he still play challengers where he had some results but in Atp tournaments nothing this year.He is moving solid and he is an average player but i cant see him taking this. They met once and Gicquel leads 1-0 6-4,6-3 in Lyon 2006 but since then things changed and Seppi is better player and Giquel is worse. I can see here Seppi taking this one easily maybe even in two sets.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr CUEVAS @ 2.3 Boylesports. Had some fun backing Cuevas during the clay court season and I really like this guy. He doesn't have much hard court experiance but I think that's OK here, especially as this is a pretty slow court and he's not playing a big server. He's had a little break since Acapulco and did pretty well coming through qualifying here. But this play is largely against Spadea. His form looked solid earlier in the year but now he's definately struggling. In february he pulled out of San Jose with a foot injury, then he's lost him last 3 matches including 6-1 6-1 v Ginepri in Indian Wells. He then pulled out of Sunrise challenger last week with a foot injury so clearly he's not 100%. Probably low on practice, this is a great situation for a qualifier who's had matches on this surface the past couple of days and Cuevas should be much sharper.

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Just a lil f.y.i. I do believe that the smaller courts are going to be strugglers for heavy servers. Winds from 10-20 with gusts up to 35 cross court. If you have any leans on any clay courter that while looks a lil soft on the hard, could have a fighting chance, today may be the day. My dog eyes are out and I'm seeing a few bones.

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr I haven't bet Tennis in a while, so I'm going to play some dogs that I find value in. All fixed profit of 6 units to keep my risks down. I'll throw in small quips here and there, but not enough to over think. It's been a couple of years, so let's hope i don't have too much rust :( There's going to be some decent winds cross courts today and leading into tonight. Miami traditionally gives clay courters a fighting chance as it's slower, the winds could be a great equalizer when it comes to the bigger servers today on the smaller courts. Dogs with value Kuerten 7.75 - .89 units to win 6 This is played in the stadium which should be moderately safe from cross winds, but features two aging players who don't actually play well on hard courts as a rule. Kuerten has had hip issues the past couple years and has had some time off recently I believe, to get ready for the clay season. Grosjean has had moderate success as of late, but hasn't really been challenged. I find value in this because both of these players are very educated in the game, Kuerten may be making his last run to the clay season, Grosjean may be protecting his ranking by showing up. 7.75 is way to large on a match where if Kuerten wins the first set Grosjean will doubtfully offer a heavy challenge in the second. Berlocq 5.50 - 1.33 units to win 6 Just like last year Sam Querrey is "ready to move prime", please. He had a great Las Vegas last year too and where did that get him? Yes, he plays well within the USA and he has had a decent showing across the hards this year. My main play on this is the fact that he lives and dies based on his serve. He's on a smaller court which could be taunted by wind. He's also third in line so that puts him up into the early evening hours. Berlocq doesn't have many bragging points this year as he's not been to successful, but he's getting ready to head into the clay season and may look for a nice couple of wins and some cash here in Miami. Warburg 2.10 - 5.45 to win 6 Partial fade on Starace. The rest of it is taking a qualifier who has done real well in challengers this year, and when he wins in qualifying he tends to have a decent showing in the first round. Unless of course he meets Blake. Starace is not a hard courter, and is very vulnerable here. Quallie play. Korolev 2.60 - 3.75 to win 6 Cant add anything to Mr I's tip,but to say revenge matches don't tend to happen on same surface. Trend is with Korolev. Seppi 1.65 & Becker 1.30 - 5.25 to win 6 Both shouldn't have too many struggles on recent form and competition. Neither are value at 2-0 set wins for me though. Lean on Calleri based on past results (though going against someone in form), Cuevas on quallie play, levine (playing against someone who hasn't played much this year and is on home soil) Huge lean on Monfils tomorrow. looking at these odds, I need a new bookie for tennis, sigh :(

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr WTA Meghann Shaughnessy 2.65 - 3.65 to win 6 She's a grinder and her style of play represents value against King. GL Everyone.

[roejoh]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Augustin Calleri to beat Kevin Anderson - 5/6 Bet365 Anderson in good form but not in the class of Calleri. The court in Miami is slower than Anderson's been playing on lately and with windy conditions forecast all pointing to a Calleri win. Also, Calleri has been to the quarters in Miami 2 of last 3 visits (including last year lost Ljubicic).

[Crazy North]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

Sport	Tennis
Event	Warburg-Starace
Selection	Warburg
Strength	10/10
Date	26/03/2008
Bookmaker/Price	>William Hill @ 2.10 (Back)
Reasoning	Well i see value here on Warburg side as he is classic hard court player and his opponent Starace is classic clay player and this should be a match were American should dominate. We all know that is always good to play on player who is playing at home ground and Warburg is that.Starace improved this season but he is not hard court player as clay is his best court.He can beat players with same level on hard as he but against classic hard court players he will have problems.Warburg has excellent serve he is in good form as he beat Guccione in qualifier,very big server and here i can see American dominating the match.

[WinningTipster]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Hi guys, following picks for today and tomorrow: WTA TOUR, SONY ERICCSON OPEN, MIAMI DECHY TO D NAKAMURA @ 1.95 at expekt Dechy is surely not at her best but still should be too consistent for Nakamura. WTA TOUR, SONY ERICCSON OPEN, MIAMI CIBULKOVA TO D YAN @ 1.57 at betfred Yan is a good defensive player but she will have to play her unusual game (i.e. to attack) against Cibulkova, who is one of the most consistent players on the tour. ATP TOUR, SONY ERICCSON OPEN, MIAMI O. ROCHUS TO D MINAR @ 1.69 at pinnacle Rochus is back in form. Should be a difference in class between the players. ATP TOUR, SONY ERICCSON OPEN, MIAMI O. ROCHUS TO D MINAR @ 1.60 at pinnacle Santoro's returning and passing game should be too strong for Bjorkman's serve and volley style. ATP TOUR, SONY ERICCSON OPEN, MIAMI HAASE TO D BERRER @ 1.32 at betfair With 3:0 H2H and 2 wins in the last month Haase is a clear favorite. After winning Sunrise challenger last week he is in good form.

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Good luck robby...brave man to back Guga!:loon

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Sony's site sucks. Just to clarify, who does Mahut get in the next round?

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr

Sony's site sucks. Just to clarify' date=' who does Mahut get in the next round?[/quote'] Moya:ok Draw here http://www.atptennis.com/en/common/TrackIt.asp?file=http://www.atptennis.com/1/posting/2008/403/mds.pdf

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr I'll fade him all day long. He should of dominated Mayer and looked awful... despite the win.

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Thanks Mr I (x2) and you as well!

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr 1-1 today waiting on Cuevas. Got a lot of action for tomorrow.... BENNETEAU @ 1.53 Will Hill. Benneteau has been playing some decent stuff this year, and he's a player I've liked for a few years. He fell apart against Haas last week, but that doesn't look so bad considering what Haas did later in the week. Schuettler really struggles for wins at ATP level nowadays, and nothing in his recent form to suggest he's playing any better. He's also got a very poor 3-6 record in the main draw here and wasn't getting any success in his good years. Benny looks a solid fav to me. MINAR @ 2.52 Betfair. Has Rochus found his form in the last month? He's got some wins, but some of those were against injured/ill players and I'm just not sure about him. Minar played some decent stuff in similar conditions in Sunrise last week and was very solid in coming through qualifying here. That just makes him better prepared for this match, and with the doubts I have over Rochus, this is a decent enough price. REYNOLDS @ 2.62 Paddy Power. How can anyone back Safin as a favourite here? He's been shocking this year, and had a couple of disasters in his past two matches. Also, he has a shocking 4-8 record here which includes a quarter final run in 2002 otherwise it is 1-7! Perhaps he just doesn't like the conditions here, or he's looking to get back to Europe? Whatever it is, there is nothing to suggest he'll come back to form here. Reynolds has been OK in the USA this year, he's got some wins and tended to lose to decent players. He's come through qualifying here, and got a good win over Young, and looks a very reasonable price here. BOLELLI @ 1.83 Sportingbet. I quite like Giraldo, but this price just seems wrong. Giraldo is decent off the ground, but his serve is awful and I'm sure that will cause him problems here. he's done OK lately, qualifying for Indian Wells and here, but I still make Bolelli a bigger fav here. Bolelli has definately improved this year, and can do pretty well on hard courts. Had a tough final set breaker loss to Isner last week where he did very well - especially in holding his vunerable serve so often. Bolelli did very well here last year, qualifying and beating Monfils and Tursunov before going down in a pretty tight one to Ferrer. He has much more class and hard court experience here, and should get the job done. CORNET @ 2.25 Ladbrokes. Just want to oppose Paszek here. She's been struggling with injuries this year and had to retire last week against Dellacqua. When she isn't 100% she'll just spray errors everywhere and the solid Cornet looks a bad match up for her in this situation. Cornet played some excellent stuff in Acapulco on clay a few weeks ago to really kick start her season. She doesn't have much experience on hard courts but did exceptionally at the US Open last year, qualifying, beating a couple of decent players to reach the 3rd round and taking a set off Jankovic. Better price available at Pinnacle but fancy taking this at a 1 ball bookie

[Mr Intensity]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Easy for Cuevas. Nice start to the tournament.

[Big Alf]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr Nice start to the tournament guys :dude

[robby]

Re: ATP & WTA Miami 26th Mar - 5th Apr 2-4 yesterday +2.38 units Yesterday showed me what I was hoping. At least in present conditions this isn't the traditional hard court style of play. Low ace counts and long service games by the bigger servers means that every point needs to be won, rather than blasting and sitting back to break. Several notable clay courters came through yesterday, a couple more should have had they held break, won the tie break, didn't double fault themselves out of it. With today's winds being around yesterday, if not worse and the humidity being high, we should see some slower and heavier balls in play. So I'll continue with clay courters with a chance, or fading hard courters with inflated records. Sela over Lee 3.00 - 3 units to win 6 Lee is a favorite, but he's not a three to one favorite. He had a small run in IW, but on the back of 3 3 setters after opening to a chump including a total of 3 tie breakers. Other than that he hasn't done much in 2008 and one could argue he hasn't done much for a while. Sela is a challenger roamer, but he's very good at it. Every once in a while he comes up to an ATP tourney and tends to scalp a first rounder. Sela is a dog, but I'd rather see him around 2.40 odds, and I'm going to play on the 3/1 value he's getting. Clement over Fish 3.75 - 2.18 to win 6 They're playing in the stadium so I don't know if wind will be a factor, but I'm picking this on three clauses. 1.) With his run last week there's massive juice on him to win. Clement isn't a 3.75/1 chance on winning this. 2.) Miami does tend to give clay courters a chance to 1 area players. His serve won't be as impactful even if it hits between the lines. 3.) He tends to have let down tournies right after a run the tourney before. Ran in Hopman, lost to Simon. Ran in New Haven, lost in the US Open to Robredo. I want to see this match to make final judgment on the Monfils/Isner match, both played in the Stadium and I feel the edge is Monfils. Llorda 2.05 - 5.71 to win 6 A little bit of risk involved in this one, but Llorda has some solid success in history past here and has had reasonable form. He's been a little choppy the past couple of tourneys but has every reasonable chance coming through with a win here. I don't think he'll be under a huge wind factor as he'll be playing in the grand stand and should be reasonably protected. Minar 2.20 - 5 to win 6 Mr I has summed it up nicely, and I love following qualifiers against very light switch (on/off) players as dogs. Ancic to me is about as clear as a banker as one could have in a first round. Ancic isn't someone who loses in the first round, Simon tends to coast till he gets on quality, but the 1.33 for Ancic is about 15 cents too short for me to play outright. So I'm going to use him to juice up a couple of dogs. If I get a dog that wins, I may since Simon is at 3.75 spend a couple of units to cover the upset. Matches that will be before the Ancic match: Ancic 1.33 & Reynolds 2.40 - 2.73 to win 6 Mr I summed it up very nicely. When you have a qualifier on home soil playing a guy who is clearly been lacking form, you have a solid dog with value. Ancic 1.33 & Hanescu 2.25 - 3.00 to win 6 A qualifier that struggled in the last match, doesn't have a large history of actually doing anything with qualifying going up against someone looking for form. I like. Guaranteed to be after : Ancic 1.33 & Kunitsyn 2.70 - 2.31 to win 6 I love ToJo, a lot. However, he's been nothing but struggles as of late, even dipping down to challengers seemingly to try and improve his game. Kuni could give him a solid run for his money, or at least make it close. I play on wind against big servers now because these servers tend to be very one dimensional. In the later rounds the gusts will have to be major to be a large motivation for me.