Doncaster 22/3/08

[fintron]

Not sure what to expect tomorrow as there is no recent form to go by and all of the races have large fields. There has also been a lot of talk surrounding the draw now the track has been relaid. Who is everyone on then? My tentative choices are.... 2.50 – Ella Woodcock - beaten by a neck over distance on last run here. Rattled up a hat-trick last season in lower class races and followed up with two placed efforts straight after as rating shot up from 65 to 83 (now 88). Got something to prove upped in class for this and perhaps draw could have been better (stall 6)? At around 20/1 I'll keep my fingers crossed for a place though 3.25 – Tax Free – did well for sprint king Dandy Nicholls last season, picking up two group 3 races and a listed race. Done well over 5f or 6f and versatile with regards to ground. Hoping for a place for this one, currently around 11.0 on Betfair. 4.00 – Vitznau – the big race of the day and the one that caught my eye was Vitznau, who goes well fresh (1^st and a 2^nd after 60+ day breaks) and will not be inconvenienced by any overnight rain. Was a close 2nd to Damika off 84 (87 tomorrow) at the end of last season in a big field race so the large field would not appear to be a problem. Only proven up to 7f and maybe could have been better drawn, but again hoping for a place. 5.10 – Suits Me – CD winner last season off 75 and then went on to win subsequent race at Ayr on heavy ground – so any rain will not be of concern. Drawn low in stall 2 which may also be a plus. I don't have a massive amount of confidence in any of these though, and will be interested to see who the big hitters on here are siding with..........

[mowgli77]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 Will get a racing post in the morning, see if the ground has changed as I expect plenty of rain and maybe even snow overnight and expect it to be on the soft side tomorrow. Not had a proper look at any of the races but just skimming through the card I thought this isn't going to be easy tomorrow. :wall I'll be there at Donny but won't be placing much cash on horses without form or a recent run, more of a watching brief and getting a few for the notebook. Might see some of you there. :ok I'll have more of a thorough look tonight and in the morning and post up a few speculative selections.

[Tom Hedonist]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 My first post here for a while, been waiting for the flat season to start :ok Doncaster 2.50pm (Spring Mile) There's quite a few I've written off in this race, as either their previous form is largely based on the all-weather, or they need better ground. The only one that really stands out is the favourite Zaahid. There's been a bit of chat in The Lincoln thread as to whether being drawn high is an advantage or not and I'm hoping it is, as Zaahid is drawn 21 of 22. In the past ten years, 8 times the race has been won by a 4yr old (and twice by 6yr olds) - Zaahid is one of nine 4yr olds running. Someone put up an Excel sheet last year, describing the various race tracks and Doncaster is described as a "Left handed, galloping track". Zaahid has won at Haydock (8f, class3) and Newbury (7f, class 4), which are also described as left handed, galloping tracks. The run at Haydock was on Soft, Good to Soft in places. Doncaster is currently described as "Good to Soft-Good in places on Straight course" but with the prediction of sleet for tomorrow thats likely to change (obv. I'm hoping it will soften a bit, rather than freeze). Has placed in a Class 2 race at York (Left handed, galloping track). Zaahid 1pt e/w - currently available at 11/4 at Coral & Paddy Power. I also fancy a small each way bet on Moody Tunes, who has an 8f win at Class 3 on heavy going, plus a couple of wins at lower classes on Gd/Sft sft pl at 8f & 7f and a place at Class 2 at 8f on the same. It doesn't have a very good draw and its a 5yr old, so I'd be amazed if it won, but I'm hoping it might nudge a place. Moody Tunes 0.25pts e/w - 50/1 available at Paddy Power & Betfred. :hope

[RichOwl]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08

There's quite a few I've written off in this race, as either their previous form is largely based on the all-weather, or they need better ground. The only one that really stands out is the favourite Zaahid.

I've heard a whisper for the said horse. I'll be having a flutter on that one:ok

[runadrum]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 No tips just commenting that I'm pleased to see the Brocklesby back as the first race of the flat season. Just like it used to be. :ok (Avon and I will be going)

[Willster]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 :nana:nanaRETURN OF THE FLAT:nana:nana

11(12)

Olympic Dream b c Kyllachy — Opening Ceremony

2:15	WILLIAMHILLPOKER.COM BROCKLESBY CONDITIONS STAKES

For what its worth I think this beast will go close tomorrow. Trainer/Jockey won same race last year, good draw in 12 and the sire Kyllachy was a good sprinter and does produce very speedy early types. Not a race to get heavily involved in but its worth a wee flutter. 1pts Win @ 6/1 on Betfair. Cheers Willster:clap 1pt = £10

[divot2583]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 Just started to snow here not overly heavy but cold enough

[Trotter]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 I didn't follow the flat last year so the only names on the card that I recognise are those that have been hurdling...........and this one looks a decent EW bet....... Donc 5.10 First Buddy EW ( 10/1 in RP forecast ) Won it's maiden first time out last season, then ran in class 2 and 3 races without showing much.........tended to tear off in front, tire and get caught. Has had 2 runs in juvenile hurdles this winter. Finished 2nd first time out, then won convincingly at Bangor in a fast time about 3 weeks ago. The horse that it slammed by 16 lengths into second has itself come out and won since, so the performance looks solid. In both it's hurdle races it's been held up just behind the front runners, so it looks like they've taught it to settle, which should improve it's flat racing efforts no end. Drawn 20 of 20 runners.........not sure if this is good or bad, but it's on the round course, so hopefully it can get in behind the leaders on the bend.

[alexmac]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 Was looking forward to the start of the flat season, but the card here is a total nightmare. For a bit of interest in The Lincoln I have gone for 2 horses to be placed. Both have a decent chance of winning, but with the going/draw bias/huge field/lack of recent form etc I feel the place market is a safer option. EUROPEAN DREAM @ 4.1. Very much at home back on a straight track after impressing over hurdles recently. Will handle the ground no bother and winning the Spring Mile last year is also a positive. Carrying a fair bit of weight here, but with course and distance form and conditions to suit I can see a top 4 finish here. YEAMAN'S HALL @ 3.4. An eyecatcher at the back end of last season, looks a progressive type. Been gelded since last season. Again, he handles the ground, and the distance will not catch him out. shaped like a stayer last season, racing over distance of 1m2f, so should easily get home today with the soft going. The draw is a bit of a problem, but again, a top 4 place looks on the cards. (prices for each from Betfair, taken yesterday lunchtime)

[RussP]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 4.00 Doncaster The Lincoln handicap, traditionally a tough race to solve, but I'm having a bet in this and taking the early price on YEAMANS HALL (8/1 Betfred). Many people will wait for the draw bias to be evident but I'm not certain that there will be one and I'm looking where the pace is likely to be. There is pace middle to high, and this horse is drawn in 21 of 22. Things to look for in this handicap are a well handicapped horse that has scope for improvement and one that races up with the pace. This horse will almost certainly race prominent in this race which will be a big plus, and looks the type to develop in a possible group performer this term as a 4yo. I personally believe there are a lot of poorly handicapped horses in this race and this animal stands out to me. Dropped 3lb from its last run where it wasn't given the best of rides, and with the very useful 3lb claimer William Buick on board, it is essentially 6lb well in. This is a big horse so I think it is well suited by a flat track over a straight course which it gets here. Very lightly raced and is expected to have come on over the winter, it opened its account with a very useful 2nd in a maiden at 28/1, pulling clear of the rest of the field. Followed that with a very game win at Sandown when headed inside the last but fought back well. Was then stepped up to Group company in Ireland, when failing to stay 10f but looked in with every chance when coming to challenge 2 out. The ground was also a bit too lively that day. It's last run was its handicap debut at Sandown off 103. Was challenging inside the final furlong before just fading into 7th. However, was slow out of the stalls and had to be driven to get into the pack, and struggled round the bend. Dropped 3lb for that promising effort to 100, and with the extra 3lb from the jockey, looks to be well handicapped here. Assuming there is no draw bias and the horse is fit and well, I think the 8/1 currently on offer is massive and wouldn't be surprised to see a big gamble on this horse.

[bowles10]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 2.15 Have to use my trusty Brocklesby "system" to find the 1st winner. Down to 5 selections: 1. Doncaster Rover (14) 15/2 1.5pts win 2. Igoyougo (10) 40/1 0.5pts ew 3. Sallys Dilemma (19) 9/1 1pts win 4. Another luke (18) 33/1 0.5pts ew 5. Ballarina (2) 25/1 0.25pts ew Draw in brackets. Will be staking only to make a profit from 5pts stake on the race. Some nice prices so I can go in at small stakes

[sportstrader]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08

No tips just commenting that I'm pleased to see the Brocklesby back as the first race of the flat season. Just like it used to be. :ok (Avon and I will be going)

I'm with you mate! Well said! And good luck for today!

[SmallTimePunter]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 3:25 - UTMOST RESPECT Goes well fresh and best at this trip, could not have been more impressive when thrashing opposition in Ayr Silver Cup last September back from a break on favoured soft surface; looks type to make an even better 4yo and should be capable of winning this. Conditions will be perfect for this horse, softer the better, still should be improvement to come & hopefully has trained on. R A Fahey stable always seem to get off to a flyer & are worth following. 2.15 - MR MELODIUS Not a lot to go on here, Fahey horse is popular as they won this last year, however Barry Hills always needs to be respected with first time out 2y/o's, as shown last year. This a course where the stable do well, horse is well bred, and 13/2 is a big price here. 2.50 - DONT PANIC Demolished a decent field when last seen, up 9lb but that last run is good form in this race, typical horse that the stable excel with, Munro in the sadle, expecting a big run at a nice price, around 10/1 now, fav is far to short in a race like this, so can go e/w with this horse.

[bowles10]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 3.25 Cammidge Trophy I have already put my selections in my trends thread, however I will stick with Advanced as my bet for this race. meets the trends well & won the Ayr Gold Cup last season in a faster time than Utmost respect won the Silver cup. It had a big weight that day & if primed, should go close today. 4.00 Lincoln really depends on the draw but this is my shortlist before i see the other races & how the draw pans out Low numbers Rio Riva Escape route High Numbers European Dream Yeamans hall

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 2.50 Zaahid 3/1 betfr 15 pts Was my main fancy for the Lincoln and its a shame for me that an improving horse like this could not make it when there are so many exposed horses in the Lincoln. It was similar in the Ebor last year when horses like Mahler couldn't make the cut and yet by the end of the season it was a Royal Ascot winner and placed in a Leger and Melbourne Cup. Anyway improved last year notably start two back when won despite terrible run, value for about 3/4 lengths no question that day, after that another solid run when placed behind Godolphin but for me was on the wrong part of the track that day by Hills and that marks up the run higher imo, a mark of 92 seems fair imo. Draw anyones guest but generally since redevolpment, middle to higher was favoured early on, still that probabaly is the biggest potential problem from 21 yet could be advantage. 3.25 Utmost Respect 5.9 betf 7.5 pts win 2.68 betf 7.5 pts place Slightly disappointed by lack of trainers confidence this morning and last run at the increasingly unreliable Ascot surface. However until then looking a real improver into pattern company possibly, when landing gamble in Silver Cup a prime example, trainer does well with his horses and although maybe not completely ready, really no one but the trainer knows has enough sbility to go close from 13 Wi Dud 9.4 betf 7.5 pts win 3.15 place 7.5 pts Good at 2, chased home Dutch Art for one and some fairly good runs at times last season, notably at San when mugged by Hoh Mike in Group race, normally front runs with pace to burn, it has been running with enough credit in better races last season so drop to listed company appeals e.w at least. 4.00 Prince Forever 8/1 boy bog 7.5 pts e.w 5 places A dark horse imo. Only three starts and has looked inexperienced so far and big field considering that maybe a concern. However lots of ability and fairly unexposed, mark of 106 reflects its run in listed company lto when behind Tariq who went onto better things in group races and second and fourth have both performed well at times after that race so that looks a good race. At 2 won on debut and then considered good enough to be in Group 2 behind last years Guineas first and second and Derby second, pulled too free that day to ruin chance and end up last but big field should enable a fair bit of cover which might be what the horse needs to settle better and a contender of interest, Rio Riva 10/1 spo 7.5 pts e.w more exposed but still in with solid chance of place at least, second last year from awful draw and really unlucky not to win that day, after that disappointed at times last season but still some fairly good runs notably when softer so drop of rain would not hurt at all and only 3 pounds higher than last year. Drawn lower, hopefully draw will not be too important in deciding racing today.

[Carl]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 from the Lincoln thread:

Ah fook it Im goona have a go E/W on CLASSIC PORT @ 25's aswell. Debut run at Wolve over 9f(Linc trials) but unbeaten in France over a mile. Has the benifit of that run so would have blown the cobwebs off. Last years winner Very Wise was pulled up in the Linc trial before going on to win it.

Im backing 4 horses in this 10pts each to win. A stat I heard was horse's winning LTO have a good chance so Im going for SMOKEY OAKEY (led 2f out, kept on well 1mile @ AYR on HVY) PRINCE FOREVER could go at a fair clip with S.O behind him and although unraced at a mile if he lasts the trip he might have done enough to hold on. FAJR as I mentioned got a good mention in the RP on Thursday and his last 3 runs over mile seen him winning 2 and placing 1. He could well go up the middle and possibly follow PRINCE FOREVER. RIO RIVA not much else to add, handy mark should be there there abouts. Prince Forever - 8/1 coral Smokey Oakey - 8/1 coral Rio RIva - 9/1 coral Fajr - 25/1 laddies

[TheRat]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 nothing for me today, but over the moon that the flat is back :nana

[devil tish]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 best of luck today lads:hope i'm taking a break from it for a bit.....but will be watching with interest.

[bigs]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 Doncaster 14:50 Hoh wotanite E/W @ 20/1 (currently) Ok, I dont see anyone tipping this horse, and it's last 4 races read 1 1 1 1. Stable in fair form, and a useful claimer on board! I don't know about you, but on form figures, I have to give it an E/W chance! and @ 20/1 ... I'm lumping on! Didn't give a proper read through the whole card, but those figures caught my eye!

[bigs]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 The price is 28/1 now @ sportingbet... cracking price! It's more than worth a shot! Already has my money in it as I see PLENTY of value there!

[bigs]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 Ok here's my bets for Donny today: 1450 - Hoh Wotanite @ 28/1 E/W 1600 - European Dream @ 16/1 E/W singles and double! :) :hope:hope:hope

[bigs]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08

Ok here's my bets for Donny today: 1450 - Hoh Wotanite @ 28/1 E/W 1600 - European Dream @ 16/1 E/W singles and double! :) :hope:hope:hope

I put European Dream , as I've heard good things about this horse, both here, and on radio :)

[billy the punter]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 2.50 For once the Spring Mile looks more interesting than the Lincoln itself, obviously due to the fancied Lincoln runners missing the cut and having to 'make do' with the consolation race. It looks like it's going to my first bet in the race since 2000. Let's hope it'll go to form for the first time since then too (well go to form as I see it anyway!).

We're going to have to guess a little with regards to the draw, I know the Brocklesby is run prior but 2-y-o races can be misleading in such matters.

As stated by bowles the last eight running here have seen winners drawn 1,19,10,1,3,4,19,8.

Going further, if I assign a third of each field to either 'low', 'middle' or 'high' drawn over those eight runnings, 83% of horse finishing in the first five were drawn 'low' or 'high'. The percentage call is obviously to go with those drawn high or low.

On that basis out go Minority Report, Samarinda, Capable Guest, Dream Lodge, Pelican Waters, Heywood, Lap Of Honour taking their middle draws with them.

Trip, track, going, field size, age, basic form put pay to all bar

Zaahid(21), Don't Panic(17), Plum Pudding(18), Benandonner(1), Trafalgar Square(2) in my opinion and that is my initial short list of five.

Plum Pudding who last won for today's jockey has some cracking form over straight miles and ran a blinder in the Lincoln dirt trial. However, has run some shockers on easy ground and with more rain forecast he is the first off my short list.

Connections seemed to get to the bottom of Don't Panic by the end of the season after disappointing after his maiden win. He is two from two when held up over a mile and will act if it gets softer. It's just a worry that I'm basing his chances on just one run really, his last - just don't know how flattered he was that day.

Benandonner is a horse I like, very genuine, has found the frame in 11 of his 17 handicap runs so far in his career. Ran a blinder first time up last season and does act on softer ground. He isn’t particularly well handicapped and a straight mile probably wouldn’t suit his style but is huge price.

Trafalgar Square was set to run in this last year but he injured himself at home, he did win on his belated appearance beating Fajr, a result that looked very good come the end of the season. Not totally disgraced in the Hunt Cup after moving centre from his high draw and acts with give. Could also be overpriced.

Zaahid is a shocking price but I just can't rule him out - despite trying. I just keep coming back to him. He hasn't been harshly treated on what his done (perhaps unlike Don't Panic). Should get a nice lead on the stands side and I have to have in on my side. I think I can get away with backing four if I stake correctly, I'm happy with the projected profit. Zaahid 4 - 60% of stake Don't Panic 9.4 -25% of stake Benandonner 23 -5% of stake Trafalgar Square 21 -10% of stake Actually given the fact that nearly ALL placed horses are usually drawn well I may mess about with a few combos from my original shortlist. It is the first day of the flat after all, got to have some fun! 4.00 Raptor/Rio Riva/Annemasse (as Lincoln thread). 5.10 I’ve watched with interest every one of Intersky Charm’s race this year and I’m certain there is more to come from him. Slaughtered the field on his seasonal debut over a mile at Southwell, a race that has worked out fairly well. The 2^nd won twice after, the 3^rd hasn’t been seen, the 4^th (btn 17l) has won, and even the 6^th (btn 26l) was only just touched off this week at Southwell. 7f was too short on his next start but ran well over a mile again on his last outing despite a shocking ride from Dean McKeown. I know what you’re thinking, Dean McKeown? Bad ride? Surely some mistake, but I promise you old Dean had a ‘mare. (yes I AM being sarcastic!) He lost his posi early and got his mount outpaced, he ran on well making up a lot of lengths to finish 2^nd. I think it’s time he was tried again at 1m2f (ran twice over in maidens) and I’m taking a chance here despite it being a competitive affair as he is a massive price. I’m certain he will pay his way this season.

Intersky Charm win market 44 place market 8

[RussP]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 Good post Billy:clap. I also believe the Spring Mile is a very interesting contest. Zaahid must have a cracking chance but you just have to oppose one so short in a big field handicap. Again, I'm unsure as to the effect of the draw so I'm discounting its effect and the tentative E/W selection would be REGAL PARADE (28/1 Betfred). Dandy has 4 in the race and this one looks to be his best chance on jockey bookings. As stated in my Lincoln bet, you need something that looks well handicapped and this horse certainly is if you can ignore one or two of its recent efforts. Off its last winning mark after being steadily eased in mark. Discount lto when racing at Chester and previous to that has run some good races although not always getting the run of the race. Likes to race prominent so can stay out of trouble and will certainly be seen in better light on this straight track. On the face of its form, is probably better when fresh so can be expected to be fit and well. The one possible drawback is its effectiveness on the going is so far unknown. First run for the stable and no surprise to see it in the money. Tentative bet, small stakes but worth a nibble at a big EW price.

[billy the punter]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08

Good post Billy:clap. I also believe the Spring Mile is a very interesting contest. Zaahid must have a cracking chance but you just have to oppose one so short in a big field handicap. Again, I'm unsure as to the effect of the draw so I'm discounting its effect and the tentative E/W selection would be REGAL PARADE (28/1 Betfred). Dandy has 4 in the race and this one looks to be his best chance on jockey bookings. As stated in my Lincoln bet, you need something that looks well handicapped and this horse certainly is if you can ignore one or two of its recent efforts. Off its last winning mark after being steadily eased in mark. Discount lto when racing at Chester and previous to that has run some good races although not always getting the run of the race. Likes to race prominent so can stay out of trouble and will certainly be seen in better light on this straight track. On the face of its form, is probably better when fresh so can be expected to be fit and well. The one possible drawback is its effectiveness on the going is so far unknown. First run for the stable and no surprise to see it in the money. Tentative bet, small stakes but worth a nibble at a big EW price.

Thanks Russ. Regal Parage was the last horse I discounted before my orginal short list of five. It very nearly made it into calculations. I backed in numerous times last year and I sill think that there are races to be won with him. Like you say, the going is a worry and for me I'm not sure he is totally suited to a mile. I'm also a little worried about the stable, not sure how forward they are this year (they will have a hat-trick today now!). As a result I reluctantly put a line through it. I couldn't put you off at all though at the price. Good luck today Russ.

[SmallTimePunter]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08

3:25 - UTMOST RESPECT Goes well fresh and best at this trip, could not have been more impressive when thrashing opposition in Ayr Silver Cup last September back from a break on favoured soft surface; looks type to make an even better 4yo and should be capable of winning this. Conditions will be perfect for this horse, softer the better, still should be improvement to come & hopefully has trained on. R A Fahey stable always seem to get off to a flyer & are worth following.

N/R Runny Nose :\ With UTMOST RESPECT gone, think SONNY RED can now take this, Hannon in good form already, does really well here, another trainer who gets off to a quick start, condition are ideal for this horse

[alexmac]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 Winner of the 2.15 comes from box 21 (thats Yeaman's Hall box for the Lincoln). Good pointer, I hope... The third was also drawn high (20).

[bowles10]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08

2.15 Have to use my trusty Brocklesby "system" to find the 1st winner. Down to 5 selections: 1. Doncaster Rover (14) 15/2 1.5pts win 2nd 2. Igoyougo (10) 40/1 0.5pts ew 3. Sallys Dilemma (19) 9/1 1pts win 1st :nana 4. Another luke (18) 33/1 0.5pts ew 5. Ballarina (2) 25/1 0.25pts ew Draw in brackets. Will be staking only to make a profit from 5pts stake on the race. Some nice prices so I can go in at small stakes

still works that system, pity its only once a year!! :ok

[Billboard]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 2.50 - Zaahid, not many outside the top of the market winning in recent runnings and aged 4/5. 3.25 - Advanced win, run at Doncaster last time out, 5 year old do alirhgt here. 4.00 - Rio Riva & Very Wise both eachway. Good Luck fellas

[alexmac]

Re: Doncaster 22/3/08 Fantastic start to the season mate.