Dustys Aways

[happygooner]

Re: Dustys Aways Finally... Just to make your head ache;) Strange we have no weekend selections for Eng league 2 when it's been the best performer up to now don't you think.....?:unsure

[lunatism]

Re: Dustys Aways

Err....loon, we're using games from leagues with a 0% strike rate, is that right??:unsure Forgive me for being stupid but i'm still not clear on the 36 bets and the 124 bets either:unsure? 2 different sets of criteria being laid down??? How come both have equal amounts staked??

yep, two different sets, but we can highlight them differently. For ease, let's call the criteria F1 and F2, if a selection gets F1, then it has an overall 58% chance of being successful, while if it gets an F2, it has an overall 60% chance of being successful. If it receives neither, it has an overall 45% chance of success. All based on data between the 6th jan and 12th feb. was that explanation a little better? so there will always be less selections that get F1, and then a bit more that are F2, while a little less are neither. From testing, the ratio of selections per "criteria" comes out as 14% are F1's, 52% are F2's and 34% are neither.... i know i might have lost you with that bit, so here's an example: if one weekend, there are 100 selections, about 52 will be F2, 14 F1, and 34 neither. The better ones are obviously F1 and F2....but if you want to do things in the true nature of dusty, you'd back them all level stakes. and that bring me to another point - stakes, now from testing, it's clear than f1 and f2 selections are more likely to be successful, so should we recommend different sized stakes for those games compared to the "neithers"? perhaps...but if so, only up them by a half to 1.5 (personally due to the small samples i wouldn't bother at this stage though).

[lunatism]

Re: Dustys Aways

Finally... Just to make your head ache;) Strange we have no weekend selections for Eng league 2 when it's been the best performer up to now don't you think.....?:unsure

for this bit - simple....although that is true about it being the best performer, that was with the criteria i stated applied to it (LSS rating of 10 or more and an indication that the away side would win). There simply aren't any L2 games that fit that criteria this weekend - that's all. Of course this will change in other weeks, but for this one, there is nowt :eek The only possible match is the notts county at chester, and that one gets only a rating of 4 (which is as close to a draw as you could manage)....not saying chester won't lose, but still - that's just how the rating pan out

[lunatism]

Re: Dustys Aways

And the selections you've sent me. Which camp do these fall under? The 124 bets with a sample size of less than 15? When you say sample size of less than 15 do you mean less than 15 selections per league? Is there any way at all you can break this down so it's easier to take in. Which leagues etc....how many selections for each...that type of thing....? And which leagues have sample size of 15+ Presumably if you are only getting 36 selections it can only be a maximum of 2 leagues?? Am I on the right track or so far out of leftfield it's untrue:lol???

erm...best to check your email again - i've added the f1/f2 columns i mentioned yep - i do mean less than 15 selections per league, which could mean that a league is 9/9, but if the cutoff is 15, then it wouldnt get into the F1 column (but it would get into the F2)

[merlin]

Re: Dustys Aways ..... seems to me to be getting a little too technical, perhaps it might be good to wait and see just how the weekend pans out.Motto of the day - keep it simple! No RFO ratings held on file by me I'm afraid Loon.Iv'e just thrown out some old RFO's today, so I will have a look at the dates available.Will keep you posted.;)

[dustbin2]

Re: Dustys Aways just to remind everyone of the weekend picks:lol Sat Norwich 1 pt @ 2.75 Carlisle 1 pt @ 2.37 L Orient 1 pt @ 2.37 Swindon 1 pt @ 4.33 Bmouth 1 pt @ 4.33 Notts c 1 pt @ 2.87 Woking 1 pt @ 2.2 Exeter 1 pt @ 2.5 Cambridge 1 pt @ 2.3 York 1 pt @ 2.75 Weymouth 1 pt @ 2.62 Altrincham 1 pt @ 3.75 Burton 1pt @ 2.5 Ebbsfleet 1 pt @ 5 A lot of bets :cry 14 bets at 1pt each:hope Can see the system going back to basics next week until the tech experts decide on which leagues are best. Hopefully break even this week. Next week I will go back to league 2 picks and possibly Scots 3, which were the original leagues which attracted me from the percentage of away wins this season. Didnt think my first system post would create such interest and debate:loon

[lunatism]

Re: Dustys Aways

Can see the system going back to basics next week until the tech experts decide on which leagues are best. Hopefully break even this week. Next week I will go back to league 2 picks and possibly Scots 3' date=' which were the original leagues which attracted me from the percentage of away wins this season. Didnt think my first system post would create such interest and debate:loon[/quote'] from my calculations, you only need 6 wins from your 6 lowest odds to break even (2% yield), more than that, and you're laughing mate ;) but i guess you're right - now it's time for me to retreat to my lair and gather more stats, build up a bigger sample and come back with the info. Every sunday (evening, after all the games have finished) i'll post the updated stats on here so we can see how each league is progressing :ok and of course - GOOD LUCK for this weekend

[happygooner]

Re: Dustys Aways

from my calculations, you only need 6 wins from your 6 lowest odds to break even (2% yield), more than that, and you're laughing mate ;) but i guess you're right - now it's time for me to retreat to my lair and gather more stats, build up a bigger sample and come back with the info. Every sunday (evening, after all the games have finished) i'll post the updated stats on here so we can see how each league is progressing :ok and of course - GOOD LUCK for this weekend

Before you retreat.... Have you looked at tonights results? keep going back over your spreadsheet and can't see how any are differentiated to others (ie F1 & F2)!

[happygooner]

Re: Dustys Aways

Ok first things first, lets get tonights selections out there!

15/02/08	Belgian Jupiler League	Koninklijke Atletiek Associatie Gent	v	Cercle Brugge KSV	7 v 1	67%
15/02/08	French Ligue 2	Football Club Gueugnonnais	v	Le Havre Athletic Club Football Associat	18 v 2	100%
15/02/08	German 2.Bundesliga	FC Carl Zeiss Jena e.V.	v	1. FC Köln	7 v 4	0%
15/02/08	Dutch Jupiler League	Stormvogels Telstar Combinatie	v	Stichting Helmond Sport	18 v 4	40%
15/02/08	Turkish Turkcell Süper Lig	Caykur Rizespor	v	Fenerbahçe Spor Kulübü	12 v 1	100%
15/02/08	Welsh League Of Wales	Llangefni Town FC	v	Airbus UK FC	18 v 13	43%

Odds for all except the Welsh game can be found earlier in the thread. Perhaps now the sample size we are working from is smaller we include games under evens? And from the lower Conference leagues as well as Welsh league?? Airbus odds 2.40

Cercle Bruge:(-1.00 Le Havre:nana+1.00 Koln:nana+1.20 Helmond Sport:(-1.00 Fenerbahce:nana+0.57 Airbus:nana+1.40 6.00 staked 8.17 returned 2.17 profit Think this has to go down as a successful first night:cow

[lunatism]

Re: Dustys Aways

Have you looked at tonights results?

i hadn't, but now i see you've posted them....hmmm, now isn't that a nice way to start? (i'd honestly completely forgotten them as i was figuring out some stuff for LSS) What do you think then? Carry on?!!!!

keep going back over your spreadsheet and can't see how any are differentiated to others (ie F1 & F2)!

i'm not sure i get you - you don't understand WHY one selection would be F1, while another F2?

[happygooner]

Re: Dustys Aways

i hadn't, but now i see you've posted them....hmmm, now isn't that a nice way to start? (i'd honestly completely forgotten them as i was figuring out some stuff for LSS) What do you think then? Carry on?!!!! i'm not sure i get you - you don't understand WHY one selection would be F1, while another F2?

1) Yes carry on without question! 2) I understand why. I just can't see for example, which one of tonights games was from the F1 & which was from the F2??

[lunatism]

Re: Dustys Aways

1) Yes carry on without question! 2) I understand why. I just can't see for example, which one of tonights games was from the F1 & which was from the F2??

did you download the updated spreadsheet i sent you - it had an extra column (column I), and in that column it said f1 / f2 or nothing :) shortly i'll send you the updated ones for tomorrow, shouldnt be many differences, but there were games tonight, so you never know

[happygooner]

Re: Dustys Aways

did you download the updated spreadsheet i sent you - it had an extra column (column I), and in that column it said f1 / f2 or nothing :) shortly i'll send you the updated ones for tomorrow, shouldnt be many differences, but there were games tonight, so you never know

Yeah I got all your stuff and just wanted to check a couple things before posting. Notice some games have gone missing... Barca were a play for tomor but not anymore?? it was something like 8 v 2 in the 6 game form. Is this due to your extra criteria? I've got all the odds so i'll post up tomor morning no doubt as off to bed in a bit.

[lunatism]

Re: Dustys Aways

Yeah I got all your stuff and just wanted to check a couple things before posting. Notice some games have gone missing... Barca were a play for tomor but not anymore?? it was something like 8 v 2 in the 6 game form. Is this due to your extra criteria? I've got all the odds so i'll post up tomor morning no doubt as off to bed in a bit.

spot on....they didnt meet the extra criteria, and so they're left out. although they might win, my cs system and lss system both suggest a draw is most likely result (it gets a rating of 0, which means either team could win and a rating of at least 10 is needed for this)

[happygooner]

Re: Dustys Aways The spreadsheet you sent me loon, is it ok to copy and paste all the data here by the way?

[happygooner]

Re: Dustys Aways Quite a few short priced picks have found their way in here. Will be interesting to see what happens...:unsure

[lunatism]

Re: Dustys Aways you should remove the columns between fp and odds (didnt mean to send those bits) and include the league names so ppl know where to find them

[happygooner]

Re: Dustys Aways

you should remove the columns between fp and odds (didnt mean to send those bits) and include the league names so ppl know where to find them

Ok, i'll work on getting it right for posting tomor morning.

[lunatism]

Re: Dustys Aways

Ok' date=' i'll work on getting it right for posting tomor morning.[/quote'] honestly no rush....most of these games arent til after 2pm anyway:ok

[lunatism]

Re: Dustys Aways

The spreadsheet you sent me loon' date=' is it ok to copy and paste all the data here by the way?[/quote'] erm......would rather you didn't :tongue2 main reason being that it would then focus too much on what MY systems say instead of dustys.....plus might add more confusion to this loaded thread ;)

[happygooner]

Re: Dustys Aways

honestly no rush....most of these games arent til after 2pm anyway:ok

Cool...goodnight i'm knackered haha!

[dustbin2]

Re: Dustys Aways Hey loon and Goon, well done with your posts last night....your hard work definetly deserves :nana:nana Not that confident today, as some of my picks came from leagues which would not have been chosen using the refined formulae by the tech experts. But :hope On the very positive side tho, I think we are getting close to finished article. Not that I have done much work on the system ,besides discover it:lol Will post after the results today, have a great day of potential buyers viewing my house so better get the hoover out:(

[happygooner]

Re: Dustys Aways

Hey loon and Goon, well done with your posts last night....your hard work definetly deserves :nana:nana Not that confident today, as some of my picks came from leagues which would not have been chosen using the refined formulae by the tech experts. But :hope On the very positive side tho, I think we are getting close to finished article. Not that I have done much work on the system ,besides discover it:lol Will post after the results today, have a great day of potential buyers viewing my house so better get the hoover out:(

discovery is the key! Without discovery there is nothing to work on....:ok

[lunatism]

Re: Dustys Aways

....your hard work definetly deserves :nana:nana

:hope pity that hard work and success don't always go hand in hand,hey?!

Not that confident today, as some of my picks came from leagues which would not have been chosen using the refined formulae by the tech experts

i was thinking the exact same thing last night about those euro games....so hopefully it can be good for both - but after all, it is a learning process. i imagine a few weeks from now those nerves will be replaced with high confidence since you'll know which leagues to go for that have a greater chance of success (with a larger sample size too i might add)

On the very positive side tho' date=' I think we are getting close to finished article. Not that I have done much work on the system ,besides discover it:lol [/quote'] as goon says...discovery is the key! but at least for the moment non of us needs to do toooo much, basically now all that needs to be done now is run my system updates (i've tagged your system into mine so that when mine updates, it automatically "spews" out your selections;)) and get the odds (which goon is an able doer of :))....all that remains is for me to post the stats (let's say weekly every sunday evening or early Monday morning) for the masses to analyse. So apart from the nerves, all we should be doing now is sitting back and watching the sample size build up (unless we're a bit impatient and place bets against our own advice :tongue2....)

[happygooner]

Re: Dustys Aways

erm......would rather you didn't :tongue2 main reason being that it would then focus too much on what MY systems say instead of dustys.....plus might add more confusion to this loaded thread ;)

I only meant the front sheet by the way but i've now deleted the offending column and will post what is left. Maybe the F1, F2 filters will prove to be almost an irrelevance as last night the remainder went 3-0. Time will tell. Spreadsheet still spitting out random percentages....:\

[happygooner]

Re: Dustys Aways

Leicester City FC	v	Norwich City FC	17 v 1		3.05
Crewe Alexandra FC	v	Carlisle United FC	19 v 10		2.46
Luton Town FC	v	Leyton Orient FC	24 v 18		2.80
Port Vale FC	v	Swansea City FC	22 v 2		1.80
Farsley Celtic FC	v	Woking FC	24 v 6		2.37
Hinckley United FC	v	Barrow FC	20 v 4		2.37
Leigh RMI FC	v	Gainsborough Trinity FC	21 v 5		2.37
Sutton United FC	v	Eastleigh FC	17 v 1		1.83
Wealdstone FC	v	Chelmsford City FC	20 v 2		1.67
East Thurrock United FC	v	Ramsgate FC	18 v 11		2.30
Kendal Town FC	v	Buxton FC	15 v 1		1.90
Bedford Town FC	v	Team Bath FC	11 v 1		1.72
FC de Metz	v	Valenciennes Football Club	20 v 14		2.74
AC Arles	v	Tours Football Club	15 v 5		2.50
FC Hansa Rostock e.V.	v	Eintracht Frankfurt	17 v 4		2.78
FC Parma	v	AC Milan	12 v 4		2.10
Spezia Calcio	v	Ascoli Calcio	22 v 9		3.00
SBV Willem II Tilburg	v	PSV NV	4 v 3		1.55
Stichting Heracles Almelo	v	Sportclub Heerenveen	7 v 2		1.69
CD Santa Clara	v	SC Olhanense	13 v 3		2.85
Gretna FC	v	Motherwell FC	11 v 6		1.58
Berwick Rangers	v	Ross County	9 v 1		1.41
Dumbarton FC	v	East Fife FC	10 v 1		1.57
Forfar Athletic	v	Montrose FC	8 v 5		1.66
Real Betis Balompié	v	Real Madrid Club de Fútbol	12 v 1		1.89
CLWB Pél Droed Porthmadog FC	v	Aberystwyth Town FC	17 v 11		2.30

[happygooner]

Re: Dustys Aways Done:ok How is the format?

[lunatism]

Re: Dustys Aways

Done:ok How is the format?

perfect....except - we need a league column so people know where the games are coming from. It's upto you whether you show the filter column or not, but over the long term there should be a clear difference in stats between f1, f2 and neither

[happygooner]

Re: Dustys Aways

Leicester City FC	v	Norwich City FC	17 v 1			3.05
Crewe Alexandra FC	v	Carlisle United FC	19 v 10			2.46
Luton Town FC	v	Leyton Orient FC	24 v 18			2.80
Port Vale FC	v	Swansea City FC	22 v 2			1.80
Farsley Celtic FC	v	Woking FC	24 v 6			2.37
Hinckley United FC	v	Barrow FC	20 v 4		F2	2.37
Leigh RMI FC	v	Gainsborough Trinity FC	21 v 5		F2	2.37
Sutton United FC	v	Eastleigh FC	17 v 1		F2	1.83
Wealdstone FC	v	Chelmsford City FC	20 v 2		F1	1.67
East Thurrock United FC	v	Ramsgate FC	18 v 11		F1	2.30
Kendal Town FC	v	Buxton FC	15 v 1		F2	1.90
Bedford Town FC	v	Team Bath FC	11 v 1		F2	1.72
FC de Metz	v	Valenciennes Football Club	20 v 14			2.74
AC Arles	v	Tours Football Club	15 v 5			2.50
FC Hansa Rostock e.V.	v	Eintracht Frankfurt	17 v 4		F2	2.78
FC Parma	v	AC Milan	12 v 4			2.10
Spezia Calcio	v	Ascoli Calcio	22 v 9			3.00
SBV Willem II Tilburg	v	PSV NV	4 v 3			1.55
Stichting Heracles Almelo	v	Sportclub Heerenveen	7 v 2			1.69
CD Santa Clara	v	SC Olhanense	13 v 3			2.85
Gretna FC	v	Motherwell FC	11 v 6		F2	1.58
Berwick Rangers	v	Ross County	9 v 1		F2	1.41
Dumbarton FC	v	East Fife FC	10 v 1		F2	1.57
Forfar Athletic	v	Montrose FC	8 v 5		F2	1.66
Real Betis Balompié	v	Real Madrid Club de Fútbol	12 v 1			1.89
CLWB Pél Droed Porthmadog FC	v	Aberystwyth Town FC	17 v 11		F2	2.30

[happygooner]

Re: Dustys Aways Using Frankfurt, Milan & Real for my European picks in competition today so fingers crossed:hope And got a double on East Fife & Montrose for UK tipsters competition.