Dustys Aways

[lunatism]

[dustbin2]

Re: Dustys Aways Top work again Loon, good luck with the hungarian:unsure Still taking in your info but here is my suggestion for the time being. Dustys aways picks will stay as the original thread, Division two only and I will post selections once/twice a week. Unless Im reading all the info wrong league two still looks like it could be the one of the more profitable especially considering the sample size. Lots of picks coming up next weekend so :hope Other leagues Im considering when the sample size gets better are, Fra 02, scot 01,02,03, and Turk 02. These are only for consideration and consultation with the tech team ( Goon and Loon ) Enjoy the hungarian m8, will post probably on Tuesday pm after my high tech selection process, two pages of the RFO.:dude

[dustbin2]

Re: Dustys Aways Can i just ask you which sytem on your thread is covered by the orange stats? Is it asian handicaps? Two good systems going m8:ok Watching that one also with interest...did take the whole weekend to read it all though:tongue2

[dustbin2]

Re: Dustys Aways Loon can you explain to me what all the english leagues are in your table/graph when you get a minute. Im lost after the one where teams relegated from league 2 go:lol

[lunatism]

Re: Dustys Aways

Can i just ask you which sytem on your thread is covered by the orange stats? Is it asian handicaps? Two good systems going m8:ok Watching that one also with interest...did take the whole weekend to read it all though:tongue2

the orange stats are just the improved version of my system....i made some additional calculations and "stuff" to assign a percentage to a result for each fixture (eg. 75% home win, 20% draw, 5% away win), and since i've been using that, all the results have been much better. .....sooner, rather than later, i'll be shifting over to that system - means less frequent selections, but almost always some on saturdays, some midweek too (18/20 is not bad, right? ;))

[lunatism]

[dustbin2]

Re: Dustys Aways Cheers Loon:ok

[dustbin2]

Re: Dustys Aways First look at the RFO indicates 10 possibilites this weekend:loon. 4 games tonight which may alter 6 match form so I will post selections after that. Two games at just under evens so again the original criteria would rule them out although better odds are available elsewhere. Will post selections tonight.:ok

[methuselah]

Re: Dustys Aways I wish you luck but suspect this year"s results an aberration. For the last 5 years Aways in that League have been between25% and 29%.

[lunatism]

Re: Dustys Aways

I wish you luck but suspect this year"s results an aberration. For the last 5 years Aways in that League have been between25% and 29%.

no worries methuselah - whether that is the case or not, my backtesting has shown that league two is indeed an able performer. and hopefully that will continue.......;)

[happygooner]

Re: Dustys Aways There were 2 selections tonight aparently but my comp has been playing up and not had chance to post. Like I said to loon though, this is not really so much of an issue at the moment providing we make a note of the odds as nobody should be betting these. All just goes to building up a nice sample size:ok

[dustbin2]

Re: Dustys Aways Hi methuselah, agree that this years league two results have been exceptional in terms of aways. But with my tech experts we will hopefully be finding more than one league for which this system works. With 40% of games ending in aways this season tho, why not take advantage? If you check out the previous pages and see some of the superb work done by loon and goon, u will see many leagues have potential using this system:ok Good to have you taking an interest m8:)

[merlin]

Re: Dustys Aways .... I would still like to see another filter built in such as RFO Home Rating v RFO Away Rating, last weekend would have had a 66.67% strike rate as two from three were correct, which I believe turned out to be better than what was actually landed.;)

[happygooner]

Re: Dustys Aways

.... I would still like to see another filter built in such as RFO Home Rating v RFO Away Rating' date=' last weekend would have had a 66.67% strike rate as two from three were correct, which I believe turned out to be better than what was actually landed.;)[/quote'] Could be worth looking at that.

[dustbin2]

Re: Dustys Aways Will check it out merlin, cheers m8. But in the meantime here are my selections for next weekend. Notts County game cancelled tonight, stake returned:unsure Sat( week 2 ) Grimsby 1pt @ 2.75 Hereford 1pt @ 2.6 Lincoln 1pt @ 3.75 Wycombe 1pt @ 3.2 Pboro 1 pt @ 2 Brentord 1 pt @ 2.6 Darlington 1 pt @ 2.2 MK dons 1 pt @ 1.9 ( included as available at evens and above elsewhere ) Stockport 1 pt @ 2.3 Arbroath 1 pt @ 2 E.Stirling 1 pt @ 2.37 Total Bets 11/11 pts staked All odds from bet 365, PAPER TRIAL ONLY.:hope

[merlin]

Re: Dustys Aways ... if the RFO filter were applied to those selections, there would be five qualifiers:- Wycombe W +10 Brentford +12 Darlington +18 MKD +16 Stockport Co +59 The remainder would be discarded as the home sides all have superior ratings.;)

[dustbin2]

Re: Dustys Aways Excellent Merlin:ok We will keep an eye on that this weekend, any way we may be able to streamline the system and make it better is always good news. We will see how the weekend goes.:hope

[merlin]

Re: Dustys Aways .... Always interesting to view things from another angle! I think also it is always wiser to be trying to stick to just a few leagues to try this out.Nothing wrong with Div 2 and Scottish and maybe just a few others, but to include some of these way out leagues makes it uninteresting and difficult to follow.Turks, Welsh, Croatia and others bore most punters and become obscure.Keep it simple!:ok

[dustbin2]

Re: Dustys Aways Your right merlin, it was always intended for this to be a quick and simple system ( check beginning of thread )that can find picks in about 10 mins from the RFO as time is tight for me due to work etc. I will be sticking to major leagues for now. This will be reviewed once we have a larger sample from other leagues. Back to work today after a week off:( Roll on the weekend:dude

[merlin]

Re: Dustys Aways ..... I think that is a positive move and one in the right direction.Don't allow the heart to rule the head.I'm not trying to knock some of the excellent stats that have been put before you, but there are lots of quite extreme leagues out there and most punters do not have the time nor inclination to be spending time in leagues scattered around the globe, at least I don't and would not be interested in the least.Stick to the tried and tested at least it keeps you away from the 'jungle' tracks.:ok

[lunatism]

Re: Dustys Aways

..... I think that is a positive move and one in the right direction.Don't allow the heart to rule the head.I'm not trying to knock some of the excellent stats that have been put before you' date=' but there are lots of quite extreme leagues out there and most punters do not have the time nor inclination to be spending time in leagues scattered around the globe, at least I don't and would not be interested in the least.Stick to the tried and tested at least it keeps you away from the 'jungle' tracks.:ok[/quote'] only picking a few leagues based on personal preference IS being ruled by the heart though. The head (well my head anyway) is ruled by stats, so if the stats say pick an other worldy league, that's exactly what i'd suggest

[lunatism]

Re: Dustys Aways ...plus, the reason we (crazy folk like me) post systems on here - is to make it as easy as possible for you guys out there. of course PL forum users are welcome to check up the selections posted, but we put them up here so they dont have to, so if a selection crops up in Andorra, then you'd know (based on system strike rate for that league, or just in general TRUST in the system) that it would be a good selection - no research necessary, just the same process of finding the selection online with your bookie....so no extra leg work really

[merlin]

Re: Dustys Aways .... I don't need to rely on obscure selections as I have a system of my own on the Return to Oz and Michael Wray thread, which has been in the Black for almost three years now,not massive but steady.You may well provide the stats for obscure leagues, but I wonder how many really dabble into these leagues.I'm not knocking you for doing this, just it is really not my cup of tea.Disagree that by choosing to use leading leagues is letting the heart rule the head.It comes down to personal choice and a tried and tested approach and the amount of time one has at one's disposal.

[lunatism]

Re: Dustys Aways

.... I don't need to rely on obscure selections as I have a system of my own on the Return to Oz and Michael Wray thread' date=' which has been in the Black for almost three years now,not massive but steady.You may well provide the stats for obscure leagues, but I wonder how many really dabble into these leagues.I'm not knocking you for doing this, just it is really not my cup of tea.[/quote'] all i'm saying (as goon pointed out to me earlier), why does it matter what league brings in the cash? and i think it's WRONG to try and encourage the direction of any system (including your own) based upon the name of a league. You shut out so many opportunities. For example, my LSS system utilizes the lower leagues, and although in its infancy on this forum (but backtested over several seasons and shows similar stats), is showing an 89% strike rate with a yield of 23%. Would you refuse to bet on those selections just because you don't fancy Spanish Tercera or Ryman Premier Division? As i earlier stated in this thread - you are playing into the bookies hands by betting solely on leagues that they themselves have a great deal of expertise with. There is so much value to be gotten from the lower leagues what you are saying, is that dusty should take up leagues based on name (L2 for example.....). while disregarding another league based on name (let's say Turkish 1) and disregarding it's high strike rate (83% strike rate, if that was to continue with a much bigger sample size). please explain the logic? he would not only be harming his own yield and strike rate, but restricting the potential of the system he created - where's the sense? how can you make an educated decision just based on whether your HEART tells you the league is obscure? another point - you shouldn't judge the success of a system by the number of followers anyway - it should be judged by the yield and strike rate (and other relevant stats), whether members of PL don't fancy taking up the "obscure leagues" is a moot point, just because you might THINK that the PL community has a bias to one league more than another, does that mean you should disregard other leagues? again, imo no. this is an international forum......we should be encouraging international systems, not stifling them i don't mean to come across as being rude or anything like that, but how can you suggest to remove one league or another without due consideration to the stats? Especially when such information is right in front of you! And since my LSS system looks at almost ALL world leagues, it feels like you are dismissing my system (aswell as dismissing the stats i've provided for the leagues on this thread)

[lunatism]

Re: Dustys Aways

Disagree that by choosing to use leading leagues is letting the heart rule the head.It comes down to personal choice and a tried and tested approach and the amount of time one has at one's disposal.

if you have an automated system, time is not a factor that comes into the equation. i guess we disagree...but making the choice of any league based on who follows it, the popularity of it, the odds you get, etc - is not the way to go if you want to find value across the world. of course, with your system, you are limited to what michael wray puts in his spreadsheets, but people like dusty (and many others) do not have to be....so there is no reason why they shouldn't look at other leagues to determine if the strike rate is adequate for including it. i'm not saying start off with the whole world.....i'm just saying don't dismiss a league because of the above mentioned reasons

[merlin]

Re: Dustys Aways .... it's not everyone who has an automated system Loon, so time IS a significant factor when endeavouring to place bets.Does everyone really want to rush off and get involved with say the Russian Premier league or Turkey Division 2. Obviously with your system YOU have the time to do that, but don't knock those who really look for simplicity.As far as Michael Wray's spreadsheets and the info contained therein, this does not enter into the equation, nor does the matter of Dusty not having the info in these sheets.Dusty has evolved his own system without the use of World stats, simple little system and it works for him within English Division two.Why then go elsewhere and complicate things.Reading between the lines that is exactly how he entered into discussions when opening this thread.Good luck with yours though!;)

[happygooner]

Re: Dustys Aways I think all loon is trying to say is that he is willing, as has been shown, to take the stress and time out of maximising the potential. In that case I can see no drawback. You are right, not everybody has either the time or the expertise to to develop things as much. In which case it is great that simple systems can work out profitable. But when it is being offered as clearly the case here all I want to do is thank the source. Let's face it, we're all here to help in any way we can. Some are able to help alot and some a little. What is important that we all pull together! I know loon has already offered to provide so much help to me both in this and other things which I am looking to explore. Let's just concentrate on doing the best we can and leave it at that. There may be a time and a place to open up the debate of minor leagues again soon. For now loon continues to collect data behind the scenes and it will be interesting to see what he comes up with. Maybe a separate thread crediting dusty would be in order as and when this happens:ok

[lunatism]

Re: Dustys Aways

.... it's not everyone who has an automated system Loon' date=' so time IS a significant factor when endeavouring to place bets.Does everyone really want to rush off and get involved with say the Russian Premier league or Turkey Division 2. Obviously with your system YOU have the time to do that, but don't knock those who really look for simplicity.As far as Michael Wray's spreadsheets and the info contained therein, this does not enter into the equation, nor does the matter of Dusty not having the info in these sheets.Dusty has evolved his own system without the use of World stats, simple little system and it works for him within English Division two.Why then go elsewhere and complicate things.Reading between the lines that is exactly how he entered into discussions when opening this thread.Good luck with yours though!;)[/quote'] complicated? right, you stick by the BIG leagues, and let dusty make his own mind up i think. All i've done is show him what the potential for his system is if he decides to expand to other leagues. All you have done is tell him to stick with league two! That is not really much of a help, since that was his plan from the start.... this forum is about helping people, so i'm helping - providing with stats that not only enlighten about the leagues he is looking at, but also let him know how successful he'd be in other leagues. and should dusty chose to branch outwards (and not stay locked inside england as you suggest), then i'd be happy to help him automate anyway. so time really wouldn't be a factor .....at all (apart from the time it took me to generate such a solution). just as simple as always it's not complicated to apply one system to another league and see if it works.....it's COMMON SENSE...BUSINESS SENSE i think that you misunderstand me completely if you think i'm knocking people who use simple systems, this is a great little system, with lots of potential, all i'm doing is providing stats for applying the same simple system to leagues around the world

[merlin]

Re: Dustys Aways ..... let's cool it down, you seem to have targeted me for airing my views when you have done exactly the same! I suggest that Dusty is big enough to make up his own mind without the likes of you and me cluttering up relevant issues, after all it really is HIS thread and he is free to do as he pleases, be it a vote for global stats or nearer home on our own shores, and I suggest we let him go his own way in his own good time.Either way I shall still be an interested party.

[lunatism]

Re: Dustys Aways

..... let's cool it down' date=' you seem to have targeted me for airing my views when you have done exactly the same! I suggest that Dusty is big enough to make up his own mind without the likes of you and me cluttering up relevant issues, after all it really is HIS thread and he is free to do as he pleases, be it a vote for global stats or nearer home on our own shores, and I suggest we let him go his own way in his own good time.Either way I shall still be an interested party.[/quote'] you're right, as they say ignorance is bliss :ok