merlin Posted February 20, 2008 Share Posted February 20, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways .... OK steam valves closed!:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 20, 2008 Author Share Posted February 20, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Woooooah boys, I go to work for one day and theres a difference of opinion.:rollin I appreciate everyones input into this thread, yeah its my thread but the way I look at it our enemey is the bookies right.:unsure I did start this system as a league two system but even Ive extended it a bit to include scottish three. I still want it simple but I have to agree with the Loon, if it works in some foreign leagues.. I'll bet on it! I would neither have the time or knowledge to apply the system to other leagues but the tech team do it for me( much appreciated:ok ) That way I post my British selections and the boys suggest some more remote leagues. At the moment, and for the systems stats it will be my picks which count in the stats. Remember its a paper trial. Once this thread has run for a while , should it be successful, I would hope to begin a new thread ( with help from my friends+perhaps a new name ) this would include picks from all round the world. I agree some picks may be remote but nobody has to bet on them, its the punters choice which picks they get on. Anyway, keep posting all, we are all in the same team, Merlin, keeping an eye on the the index stats at the weekend.:dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 22, 2008 Author Share Posted February 22, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways [Reminder of system stats and the weekend picks. week 1 Stats Starting bank -100pts Current bank -106.34 pts Profit +6.34 pts Strike rate - 45% (10 wins/22 bets) Sat( week 2 ) Grimsby 1pt @ 2.75 Hereford 1pt @ 2.6 Lincoln 1pt @ 3.75 Wycombe 1pt @ 3.2 Pboro 1 pt @ 2 Brentord 1 pt @ 2.6 Darlington 1 pt @ 2.2 MK dons 1 pt @ 1.9 ( included as available at evens and above elsewhere ) Stockport 1 pt @ 2.3 Arbroath 1 pt @ 2 E.Stirling 1 pt @ 2.37 Total Bets 11/11 pts staked All odds from bet 365, PAPER TRIAL ONLY.:hope Odds may have changed slightly from Tuesday when picks originally posted. :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways .... I make that 6 correct from 11 Dusty = 54.55%. The filtered method gave 4 correct from 5 = 80% so could be food for thought!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways ...does anyone keep any old copies of RFO so that we could backtest Merlin's theories? this weekend is looking especially good for the "world leagues" so far....8 games to come in (and all of tomorrow's too) before i unleash the stats on you all :tongue2 but today definitely looks good btw.....4/5 is great merlin :ok but if we'd taken the L2 picks based on my ratings, that 4/5 would have become 5/6 (and 83% is marginally better than the 80%....plus, think of the profit) ;) ....that's why i want to see some old RFO data, so we can backtest together and perhaps combine the RFO with mine (for what leagues it covers) - who knows what we'd find Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 23, 2008 Author Share Posted February 23, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Sat( week 2 ) Grimsby 1pt @ 2.75 :(0-0 Hereford 1pt @ 2.6:clap1-2 Lincoln 1pt @ 3.75:eyes3-2 Wycombe 1pt @ 3.2:nana0-1 Pboro 1 pt @ 2:nana0-3 Brentord 1 pt @ 2.6:cry1-0 Darlington 1 pt @ 2.2:clap1-2 MK dons 1 pt @ 1.9 :clap0-2 ( included as available at evens and above elsewhere ) Stockport 1 pt @ 2.3:cow0-2 Arbroath 1 pt @ 2:wall2-1 E.Stirling 1 pt @ 2.37:(1-0 6 winners 5 losers today :\ profit +3.2 pts:clap Not quite dancing bananas but still doing okay I think. Small steady profit is the plan. Week2 stats Starting bank 100 pts Current bank 109.54 pts Profit +9.54 pts Strike rate 48% (16/33) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 23, 2008 Author Share Posted February 23, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Can you just explain how I would introduce the RFO ratings to my system Merlin? Certainly worth checking out. Out of interest , how would it have effected my scottish picks m8. Loon, Ive been checking out some of the world leagues too, looking forward to your results:ok Not bad results from the basic system at all but Im excited about the possibilities of the advanced system currently under construction.:cow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways .... Looking at the Scots picks I would have discarded them both as there was not enough difference between the ratings:- Arbroath H673-A677 East Stirling H641-A574 I note that both lost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 23, 2008 Author Share Posted February 23, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Thats interesting to note mate, it also answers my question about the RFO indexs, difference between home and away right? What sort of difference would you consider to make it a bet situation? Well done on your own system as well:clap and thanks for the help on mine.:ok Yourself, goon and the loon are helping shape my initial idea into something that can hopefully start robbing the bookies of their ill gotten gains.:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways .... no problem Dusty, I always like tinkering around with systems, done it for years now and getting a little wiser with each year.I would say that maybe a gap of 10 would suffice my needs for betting purposes, but that is only my personal preference.Trial and error I suppose could be the order of the day.To introduce this to your picks I would first select as you have always done, which will get you a long list to work from.Then by looking at RFO Home v Away index ratings, narrow the list down by selecting only those teams that pass the +10 criteria.;-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 23, 2008 Author Share Posted February 23, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Cheers m8, will at least consider the away team must have a better away index than the home team. Still keeps the simple system I always aimed for, may take me ten minutes looking at the RFO rather than the five it took before:lol But it seems to significantly increase the strike rate. Excellent work:ok Better put this laptop away , the misssus getting cheesed off! and shes on the vodka tonight:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rich46 Posted February 23, 2008 Share Posted February 23, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways I have the RFO from the start of this season apart from the odd one or two if its of any help,let me know;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 24, 2008 Share Posted February 24, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways I have the RFO from the start of this season apart from the odd one or two if its of any help' date='let me know;)[/quote'] great help......hmmmmm, i wonder how you could share this though? (should of really considered this before) do you by chance have it all on pc too?! ;) or would this be a post job?.......or have you some other way you'd be able to share it with us? :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rich46 Posted February 24, 2008 Share Posted February 24, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways If its just some pages from each issue thats required i can photocopy those pages and post to you,no problem:D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 24, 2008 Share Posted February 24, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways If its just some pages from each issue thats required i can photocopy those pages and post to you' date='no problem:D[/quote'] whoa...that would take (a lot of your) time!! but we'd all greatly appreciate it here. Not only would it help with backtesting in general (would be able to go back further than 6th January), but also we'd be able to use it to see the ratings merlin was talking about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 24, 2008 Share Posted February 24, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways .... if you knew anyone with a scanner, they could be scanned and attached via e-mail, save a bit of bother!;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rich46 Posted February 24, 2008 Share Posted February 24, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways I can photo copy the back issues no problem would only take a couple of hours i reckon. I do also have the use of a scanner at work. Ill take the back issues in tomorrow and see which is easier. Looking at the page layout it might be easier to copy. Never used the scanner before but i ll check it out. Just to be sure its the Outlook Index your after which covers the Scottish and English leagues.:) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 24, 2008 Share Posted February 24, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways well however you do it, it'll definitely be handy ;) if you can't manage to get the hang of the scanner, you can post it to me if you like, and then i'd put it all into excel (which i'd need to do anyway) and make it available for the forum........ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 25, 2008 Share Posted February 25, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 25, 2008 Author Share Posted February 25, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Great news loon, Div 2, SL3, Turk 1+2, and the two ryman leagues look very, very promising m8. Have had a few small singles on Turkish leagues over the last few weeks for interest and made a decent profit. When do you think we will have enough sample size to decide on leagues? Good work again m8:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 25, 2008 Share Posted February 25, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Great news loon' date=' Div 2, SL3, Turk 1+2, and the two ryman leagues look very, very promising m8. Have had a few small singles on Turkish leagues over the last few weeks for interest and made a decent profit. When do you think we will have enough sample size to decide on leagues? Good work again m8:ok[/quote'] ultimate question really......i'd say 50 should give a good indication, i think the BEST thing to do is let it run a season to be sure. But I don't see why for paper trials (and SMALL stakes) a sample size of 20 wouldn't be enough :ok of course, as will all testing, the more results we have under our belt the better....but the signs look good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 25, 2008 Author Share Posted February 25, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways I agree mate, gona keep on going with the paper trial , leagues 2 and sl3. When you think we have a good enough sample size we can decide on leagues and new name for the thread. ( something that credits all involved ) :okGona check out next weeks picks using merlins RFO index method, see if it increases the strike rate.:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
merlin Posted February 25, 2008 Share Posted February 25, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways ..... good presentation as always Loon, but is it possible to name particularly the English divisions like Prem, Champ,Div 1 etc, so that we thickies can easily recognise and interpret what we see before us.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 25, 2008 Author Share Posted February 25, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Week 3 bets Tues 26th Pboro 1 pt @ 2.1 Hereford 1pt @ 2.1 Brentford 1pt @ 2.2 Stenhousmuir 1 pt @ 2s Albion Rvrs 1pt @ 2.25 5pt staked:hope Will keep an eye on the RFO index figures for these picks merlin and may use them as an additional filter for the weekend:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 25, 2008 Share Posted February 25, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways ..... good presentation as always Loon' date=' but is it possible to name particularly the English divisions like Prem, Champ,Div 1 etc, so that we thickies can easily recognise and interpret what we see before us.:ok[/quote'] ...sure, i'll do that from next week :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rich46 Posted February 26, 2008 Share Posted February 26, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways The RFO Outlook Index back issues covering the Scottish and English leagues inc the Conference from the start of the season up to Jan 8-14th are all copied, if someone could pm me an address i will put them in the post;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 26, 2008 Author Share Posted February 26, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Week 3 bets Tues 26th Pboro 1 pt @ 2.1 :cow0-2 Hereford 1pt @ 2.1:cry1-0 Brentford 1pt @ 2.2:unsure 1-0 Stenhousmuir 1 pt @ 2s postponed Albion Rvrs 1pt @ 2.25:\ 1-0 5pt staked:hope 3.1 returned , loss of 1.9pts:sad Will keep an eye on the RFO index figures for these picks merlin and may use them as an additional filter for the weekend:ok RFO figures would have meant I would not have backed Albion Rovers therefor would have reduced losses on the night. Not a great night but still paper trialling. Will update figures tomorrow and may well use index ratings for picks. First look suggest only 4 or 5 gamesfor the weekend though.:dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 27, 2008 Author Share Posted February 27, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Current stats starting bank 100 pts current bank 107.64 pts profit +7.64 pts strike rate 45.9%( 17/37 ) Wed 27th Stranraer 1pt @ 2.4 Sat 30th Notts County 1pt @2.8 Grimsby 1pt @ 3 Shrewsbury 1 pt @ 2.75 Dag + Red 1pt @ 3.6 Stenhousmuir 1pt @ 2.1 6 bets , 6pts staked:hope Cum on! I am aware that adding merlins new criteria of home and away indexs would remove Shrewsbury and Dag+Reds from my picks. Should this prove you right this weekend Merlin, I WILL introduce it as criteria for my picks M8.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 27, 2008 Author Share Posted February 27, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Stranraer 1pt @2.4 :cow 0-5 ( 2.4 pts profit ) Lets hope thats a good sign for the weekend:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scukit Posted February 28, 2008 Share Posted February 28, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Can i be really stupid for a min and ask how dusty you managed to figure out that league 2 away % was 38 at the very beginning of the thread. I have been reading with interest but all the numbers has blocked my ability to do the most basic maths??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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