dustbin2 Posted February 8, 2008 Share Posted February 8, 2008 First post so please go easy:cry Have been working on a wee system which seems to do ok and would like to go live next week with a PAPER TRIAL. Before I begin I would much appreciate the views of you guys on the system and its chances of success. So here goes, Picks are away wins from the English 2nd Div only Reasoning being , 38% games end in away wins Picks are at evens and above only Picks are above opponents in RFO 6 match form league Stakes are 1 pt even stakes from a theoretical bank of 100 pts System is very simple but seems to work, have done my own trial for the last 5 weeks and am up 20 pts. It will probably fall flat on its face now ive finally posted. I will post once or twice a week depending on work commitments. No picks this week so plenty of time for your input. Be gentle:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 8, 2008 Author Share Posted February 8, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Just like to add all my bets will use bet 365 odds, too lazy to shop around. For interest sakes, the sytem did highlight Lincoln and Stockports midweek away wins, both were above their opponents in the 6 match form league before the match, obviously I have no proof of this:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted February 8, 2008 Share Posted February 8, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways :welcome to PL mate and good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 8, 2008 Share Posted February 8, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways :welcometo PL! It's nice to see a newbies putting systems...seem to have had quite a few in the last few weeks, hopefully yours can be just as successful as the others! few questions about your selection strategy: # how many places above in the form table does one team have to be? (or is one place sufficient?) # will you keep your selection strategy this basic / simple, or do you plan to add additional criteria if you start to notice other things that frequently come into play that prodice a loser? (eg...teams that win most of their away games but only win by 1 goal playing against a home side that has extremely terrible away form but wins by 2/3 every home match?...so basically a home side with impeccable HOME form will be lower in the form table due to their abysmal AWAY form, against a team higher in the form table.......have i lost you? :tongue2) # ok - you said that you take league two because of the 38% away win - what about other world leauges with similar statistics? Or haven't you considered that yet? # would you take on matches against your gut insticts if your selection strategy suggested it? (eg..Blackburn away to Everton..maybe a bad example, since your only looking at L2, but i guess you get my point) anyway - it looks nice and simple and easy to follow, wish you lots of success!!! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 9, 2008 Author Share Posted February 9, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Hi loon, thanks for your reply and great to have people taking an interest in my first system. I have tried to produce many systems since starting to throw my wages to the bookies, one of the main reasons I like this one as it is not time consuming and seems to work even better than ones that have taken me hours to work out. One place above the form table is enough for me. the way i look at it, there is a 38% chance of an away win anyway, if my pick is in better 6 match form surely those odds increase!:unsure I see exactly what you are saying about home and away form having a bearing on 6 match league position, only reason Im not going in so deep is the fact I want to keep it simple , quick and see if it keeps working. I certainly would consider other leagues if this works, I think the scottish 3rd has a similar record. On your final point, Im keeping instinct and gut feelings out of the system, I find betting with gut instinct leaves you skint in the long run IMO. Cheers for your reply mate, appreciate it very much, have noticed your system before and will keep an eye on it. Have been putting money on cavellomans power ratings for about six weeks now as well as a few of my own picks. Just out of interest the sytstem would pick Elgin City(3.75) and Arbroath(2.1) this weekend from SL3. Cant wait to get some winners up, not for the cash , just so I can do the dancing cows and bannanas:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 9, 2008 Author Share Posted February 9, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways :cheers Thanks for the welcome aliando Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 9, 2008 Share Posted February 9, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways One place above the form table is enough for me. the way i look at it, there is a 38% chance of an away win anyway, if my pick is in better 6 match form surely those odds increase!:unsure Indeed - perhaps after producing a season worth of data for this - you'd be able to note down percentages of how effective this strategy is for teams of varying league difference? I presume the bigger the difference the better, while the shorter the distance the greater the value, so it might work out that keeping both is what gives you the nice profit you'll be targetting!......but i've no idea - different leagues, different stats i guess! On your final point' date=' Im keeping instinct and gut feelings out of the system, I find betting with gut instinct leaves you skint in the long run IMO [/quote'] couldn't agree more - that's my philosophy too, in most cases i find that in the long term having a system that removes the decision making part will often do wonders to your bank balance.....but of course it means sometimes going against your instinct, which can sometimes be tough too! I guess having the confidence to do "whatever your system says" will make the difference here ;) oh ye....the true highlight of any system posters day! Somehow i've managed to forget all that (truly i've lost the "spirit" of PL :tongue2) But I do have a feeble excuse - the smilies are too big for my neat little tables and generally cause havoc! (somehow i never forget the "head against wall" one if i produce a loser though!) hope to see plenty of dancing cows and bananas on here in the coming weeks!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madnesstiger Posted February 9, 2008 Share Posted February 9, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Hi Dusty! :welcome As a fellow-newbie (in terms of posts at least), I hope your system does well. Have just had a read of the details, and seems very straight-forward.. not a hint of Excel or calculators anywhere! As my main system at the minute evolves around home wins only, I haven't really looked into away wins. However, I did notice last weekend, in league 2, there were loads of away wins, and only 1 home win! Which leads me to my first question: You say 38% of games result in away wins in league 2. How many results is this based on? If it helps, I have just over 6 seasons of league 2 results, and I make it to be around 28% overall for away wins. This might be worth thinking about, as the H/D/A percentages always seem to average out at about 50%/24%/26% respectively in many leagues.Also, as you are dealing with away wins, and taking the above stats into account, I agree that it is safest to deal in singles only, unless you are really confident of away wins! Alternatively, if you have a few quality picks each week, you could maybe even look into the half-time/full-time odds, as these increase dramatically on the match-odds alone. For example: Arbroath at the minute are priced at 1.85 to win the match (54% chance), but if you go for the H-T/F-T bet, the odds shoot upto 2.87 (35% chance). Good luck mate.. I want to see dancing cows & bananas by the end of the day! :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 9, 2008 Author Share Posted February 9, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways :cheers Cheers for the welcome madness, gona try and answer your questions, Im purely working on this seasons away stats for league 2 as printed in the RFO HF/FT results would indeed increase the odds and its something I may look at, at the moment Im just looking at something really simple as time is sometimes against me when making picks Finally, been betting for about a year now and the most important lesson I have learnt is bet singles, betting doubles and above will almost certainly lose you money in the long run. Arbroath won 1-0, they were 2.1 when I looked at prices so a small profit would have been made. Cheers for your interest, lets see if we get the bananas next week, hope you had a lucky weekend. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 12, 2008 Author Share Posted February 12, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways At first glance a few games look likely tonight, will post around tea time once Ive consulted the bible ( RFO ) :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 12, 2008 Author Share Posted February 12, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Selections for tonight, PAPER TRIAL ONLY:loon Tues Lincoln 1pt @ 2.8 Brenford 1pt @ 2.7 Wycombe 1pt @ 2.3 Grimsby 1 pt @ 2.6 Darlington 1 pt @ 2.2 Stockport 1 pt @ 3.5 MK Dons 1 pt @ 2.1 Wed Peterbro 1pt @ 2.5 8 pts staked starting bank 100 pts Give me the dancing bananas:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 12, 2008 Author Share Posted February 12, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways I know that it seems Ive picked every away team in the league:lol but they are all above there opponents in form leagues, therefor should have a good chance of winning.......one of the more complicated systems on PL... I dont think:loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 12, 2008 Share Posted February 12, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways good luck for tonight! let's hope for dancing bananas all round :ok perhaps you could rank each team by the difference in the form table - or doesn't it work out that way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 12, 2008 Share Posted February 12, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Selections for tonight' date=' [b']PAPER TRIAL ONLY:loon Tues Lincoln 1pt @ 2.8 Brenford 1pt @ 2.7 Wycombe 1pt @ 2.3 Grimsby 1 pt @ 2.6 Darlington 1 pt @ 2.2 Stockport 1 pt @ 3.5 MK Dons 1 pt @ 2.1 NICE!!! 6/7 winning at HT and 1-1 in the Stockport game :hope all goes to plan! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 12, 2008 Author Share Posted February 12, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Still looking good loon, Im against putting the ranks in table as its designed as a quick system, it doesnt matter really as long as the away team is above the home in the six match. still a pick whether its one or ten places. :hope Respect for the analysis in your sytems though:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 12, 2008 Share Posted February 12, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Respect for the analysis in your sytems though:ok haha, thanks, i'm just a bloke with too much free time on his hands :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 12, 2008 Author Share Posted February 12, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Tues Lincoln 1pt @ 2.8 :cow0-3 Brenford 1pt @ 2.7:nana1-2 Wycombe 1pt @ 2.3:sad2-2 Grimsby 1 pt @ 2.6:cow1-2 Darlington 1 pt @ 2.2:nana0-1 Stockport 1 pt @ 3.5:cow1-4 MK Dons 1 pt @ 2.1:sad3-3 Sorry for the overuse of the cows and bananas , but Ive waited a long time for that:D , will update stats after pboro game yomorrow but not a bad start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aliando Posted February 12, 2008 Share Posted February 12, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways if only every week could be like that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PERFECT Posted February 12, 2008 Share Posted February 12, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Not lucky in last minutes..."perfect" start mate!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tommy_de1st Posted February 13, 2008 Share Posted February 13, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways How many times I started to test sth on the paper and looked good. When you go for real money the system suddenly fails. Dont take it as a discouragement and go for it. GL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 13, 2008 Share Posted February 13, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways great start, and with the average odds you're packing, a few losses here and there wouldn't spell the end of the world anyway :ok if i get the time, i'll do some backtesting on your selection process over all the world leagues i cater to - see if there are any patterns that stick out. That should be of some help to you....right? :tongue2 i'll post the stats as soon as i get them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 13, 2008 Share Posted February 13, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 13, 2008 Author Share Posted February 13, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Hi everyone and thanks for the kind comments, Im well aware that last night may have been beginners luck and I wouldnt expect that every week...or that many picks. However the idea of the sytem is small profit every week using singles. I fully expect a few picks to fail but the beauty of the system is the winners at odds against will usually cover this and make a profit. Although this is a PAPER TRIAL I have to confess to having £1 singles on lats night:nana Loon do you ever sleep mate:zzzhaha, I appreciate your figures but can you give me a wee explaination, Im a bit bemused by it all but it looks like my system could work elsewhere, right ? Anyway, work beckons. Good luck Pboro tonight. I will update figures tomorrow sometime and post the weekend picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 13, 2008 Share Posted February 13, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Loon do you ever sleep mate:zzzhaha' date=' I appreciate your figures but can you give me a wee explaination, Im a bit bemused by it all but it looks like my system could work elsewhere, right ?[/quote'] ok - what i did was put a formula into excel that ran against all past data that I had. The formula of course was "your selection process". And those are the results it brought up. So basically, let's take a look at one line to see what i mean..... look down the first column, find ENG05 (this is the national conference), using your system on data from the 6th of january (until today), there would have been 23 picks, with 17 of those winning, giving you a strike rate of 74%. On 1pt stakes based on the average odds i tried to explain further in the thread that means you would have won 39.10pts from 23pts - a yield of 70% the only reason i split this up into leagues was to show yo a little not just how "successful" it appears your system is/has been, but also how many leagues this works with. and even though the sample size for some leagues is small, for the leagues that have over 15 selections, you can see the general idea - most have an extremely high strike rate and an impressive yield. in "conclusion" your system seems to work, at least for the last 36 days it works anyway, and during that time, had you staked 1pt on every selection, you would have brought in a return of 922pts to the 597pts you staked (54% yield....which is WONDERFUL! Not only does your system seem to work - it is also very profitable over a relatively short amount of time.....doubtful it could maintain it, but at the minute, it suggests that you could earn 54% yield a month - if you wonder how good that could be for you, take a look at this thread so basically - your "simple system" kick ass :clap:clap:clap :nana:nana:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 13, 2008 Share Posted February 13, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways oh ye, the little overall leagues thing means that if you had bet on every world league (well....all the leagues i keep data only...which is generally everywhere but latin america), you would have a strike rate of 33% and a not so good yield (-24%), but no need to worry about that, you ROCK in the top leagues and IMO, you should immediately start posting selections from the best performing leagues indicated by those stats (my humble opinion, but not only a highly profitable one, but also will get your system the "coverage" it needs in terms of generating a bigger sample size) you must be grinning - us formula-heads split our brains trying to tweak multitudes of formulae to generate out picks, yours uses one simple criteria, but looks a lot better than MANY out there right now:notworthy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 13, 2008 Author Share Posted February 13, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways I hope your 2nd last post meant "kick ass" not "kiss ass":rollin Much appreciate your research and it seems I may well have stumbled on something worth while, your help needed again here. As you know time is not on my side due to family etc and the fact Im selling/buying house at the moment. Would consider extending. it to two more leagues, can you recommend which ones on your stats and can tell me where I can get the 6 match league tables if they are not British, Im restricted to the RFO at the moment. Cheers again mate:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 13, 2008 Share Posted February 13, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways I hope your 2nd last post meant "kick ass" not "kiss ass":rollin dustbin my dear boy - no idea what you are talking about :$ thank God for editing, huh?! seems I may well have stumbled on something worth while you can say that again! ;) can you recommend which ones on your stats and can tell me where I can get the 6 match league tables if they are not British' date=' Im restricted to the RFO at the momentbets wins losses strike staked return profit yield confidence 80 60 20 75% 80 138 58 73% 100% as you can see, from 80 games you have unbelievable results from these leagues. while for the others - they can just be for "consideration" at this stage, i'd go for these with confidence form tables can be gotten from soccerway (i most post that sight on here so much they should pay me royalties......). They have almost every world league, and if you need any help with data extraction, then fire away, i'll make you a spreadsheet if you like ;) well personally, i would say it might be a tad to early to make any concrete decisions about which leagues to add (or not add) at this point, but still in light of the stats i've put up there, i would DEFINITELY go for the Championship and League One (ENG02 / ENG03). And why? because these two both have over 30 selections each, and both also have strike rates over 70%, combined they show THIS: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 13, 2008 Share Posted February 13, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lunatism Posted February 13, 2008 Share Posted February 13, 2008 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dustbin2 Posted February 13, 2008 Author Share Posted February 13, 2008 Re: Dustys Aways Hi loon, may decide to go with the suggested British leagues at the weekend, any more may be too time consuming for me i think. Cheers for all your work. In the mean time, Pboro up 2-0:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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