GaF Posted February 19, 2007 Share Posted February 19, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand Yep - I can see that now Jeremy :$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whycantistayawayfromdogs Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand Against one player, i actually couldnt bring myself to fold it. Imagine if you then went card dead for 10 hours lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJ Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand another caller. You're a huge fav, if you're not prepared to make this bet you shouldn't be playing in imho (top pros excepted), if you fold this, it's almost certain you'll have to go all in later yourself with worse cards / odds. A double up here buys you time to wait on cards later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wurzel133 Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand AJ hit the nail on the head if u dont call here you never will to get anywhere in a big tourney you are going to have to be all in on numerous occasions when you are behind . so you must call when you are favourite imho opinion its a no brainer you must call Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glceud Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand Well not taking into account the fact it would never happen of course you should call. Starting tourney with 500 big blinds no one would reraise all in to increase their stack by 1% Having said that I would fold as I would want to play poker against the best in the world on what would be possibly be my only chance. Off course I could call and try and drink my buy in if Joe Legge was in charge of three days hospitality Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ell Ess Dee Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand Said it before, I would fold. Assuming its a ten seater table your just less than 70% best with 2 live Aces, with 2 dead Aces (and you never know) your less than 60% and this is against 89s, so not far of a coin flip and I would be willing to take chance later on, not 1st hand... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand Said it before' date=' I would fold. Assuming its a ten seater table your just less than 70% best with 2 live Aces, with 2 dead Aces (and you never know) your less than 60% and this is against 89s, so not far of a coin flip and I would be willing to take chance later on, not 1st hand...[/quote'] Aren't you at least 75% against any hand? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand Aren't you at least 75% against any hand? Best chance I can see is 23.021% for 8h7h v AcAd Any better hands out there? What are you biggest favourite against? Biggest I can find is 90.097% for AcAd v Kd2c..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand What are you biggest favourite against? Biggest I can find is 90.097% for AcAd v Kd2c..... AcAd v As9c is 93.37% to win and another 1.42% to tie. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ell Ess Dee Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand 201376 enumerated boards cards____win_____%win____lose____%lose Ac Ad__140188___69.62___60415___30.00 9s 8s __60415____30.00___140188__69.62 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand 201376 enumerated boards cards____win_____%win____lose____%lose Ac Ad__140188___69.62___60415__30.00 9s 8s __60415____30.00___140188__69.62 Where's that from? Are those real-life hands where there's betting after the flop? If so, AA will do less well, as it might fold when it was actually going to win. But that's not relevant if you're all in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ell Ess Dee Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand http://www.pokertips.org/simulator/simulator.php All in heads up pre flop with 16 random dead cards not inc Aces.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand http://www.pokertips.org/simulator/simulator.php All in heads up pre flop with 16 random dead cards not inc Aces.. Without putting in any dead cards it gave me 77.22% for the aces. How do you do random dead cards? And why no aces in the dead cards? I'd have thought having no aces in the dead cards would increase the chances of the AA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ell Ess Dee Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand If you have no dead cards, then you are TRULY heads up, were on about MTT, so assuming its ten seated table. 8 people are going to chuck 16 cards away.. Random cards I just made up, you just whack em in as normal.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand If you have no dead cards' date=' then you are TRULY heads up, were on about MTT, so assuming its ten seated table. 8 people are going to chuck 16 cards away.. Random cards I just made up, you just whack em in as normal..[/quote'] But if the dead cards are random, it makes no difference whether you include them or not. Of course, they won't be totally random, as they are cards that people chose to fold, but I'd doubt it would make much difference. Are you sure the 16 cards you typed in weren't cards that wouldn't help the 98: on average, 16 random cards from the remaining 48 would include one 8 and one 9? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand 201376 enumerated boards cards____win_____%win____lose____%lose Ac Ad__140188___69.62___60415___30.00 9s 8s __60415____30.00___140188__69.62 "Only" 200k hands - there are 1.7m? Does that account for the differences? I have it as 22.623% equity..... 1,712,304 games 0.063 secs 27,179,428 games/sec Board: Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 77.377% 77.22% 00.15% 1322321 2607.50 { AcAd } Hand 1: 22.623% 22.47% 00.15% 384768 2607.50 { 9s8s } Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand "Only" 200k hands - there are 1.7m? Does that account for the differences? If the hands are random, 200k should be plenty. It should get the percentages right to within about 0.2% virtually all the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ell Ess Dee Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand Where you get yours from?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fader Posted February 20, 2007 Share Posted February 20, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand wouldn't expect anything less from you really ;) Why is it a stupid question? Have you really thought about it? (or is it because you have just gone out of the Betfair freeroll with AA :lol) and lastly please dont call me geezerm? whats your problem? i said IMO its a stupid question - lets face it no1 will of paid for their entry and gone all in with "any 2 cards" so your basically looking at a pair j up, or AK - yeah id be right in there folding my aces. and yes, it is because i went out with AA :p but i still wouldnt fold it, as i said before what better situation do you want in terms of odds GEEZ why you have taken it so personally, and then took a swipe at me i dont know? thats what youd expect from me? erm sorry do you KNOW ME? fader Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted February 21, 2007 Share Posted February 21, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand If your playing sound poker you shouldnt fold it 100% call. I have only scanned the thread but no 'pro' player would fold either (people seemed to think they might for some reason). Let the good times roll people, youll be shipping it most of the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted February 21, 2007 Share Posted February 21, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand Said it before, I would fold. Assuming its a ten seater table your just less than 70% best with 2 live Aces, with 2 dead Aces (and you never know) your less than 60% and this is against 89s, so not far of a coin flip Wtf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie_D Posted February 21, 2007 Share Posted February 21, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand My question was.... 'If you had bought into a major tournament (say the main event) and you got dealt AA first hand, you raise 5 or 6 BB's and 1 person goes all in, everyone else has folded, its just you and him what would you do?' Let's not forget that the 'random' hand issue isn't a factor in this particular instance. The other guy has ALSO gone All-in first hand after you raised him a significant amount. Unless he's a complete muppet he's only gonna have one of two hands....KK or AA. Actually, I think he's a muppet if he has less than AA but that's another issue! So, you're either in front to KK or drawing even on AA. Either way, barring a RRRR straight or flush, you're probably safe. If it's KK and he hits his 5%(?) so be it. My SB worth....Call! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAM Posted February 21, 2007 Author Share Posted February 21, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand erm? whats your problem? i said IMO its a stupid question - lets face it no1 will of paid for their entry and gone all in with "any 2 cards" so your basically looking at a pair j up, or AK - yeah id be right in there folding my aces. and yes, it is because i went out with AA :p but i still wouldnt fold it, as i said before what better situation do you want in terms of odds GEEZ why you have taken it so personally, and then took a swipe at me i dont know? thats what youd expect from me? erm sorry do you KNOW ME? fader Compose yourself darling no need to get obtuse. You have obviously stumbled across a thread that needs a higher level of thinking and you can be forgiven for that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adetrick Posted February 21, 2007 Share Posted February 21, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand I've no doubt that the right thing to do is to call - but, I've also no doubt that under this set of circumstances my balls would shrink to the size of peanuts and I'd fold :$ and then regret it for the 10 minutes I'm still in the tourney. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fader Posted February 21, 2007 Share Posted February 21, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand Compose yourself darling no need to get obtuse. You have obviously stumbled across a thread that needs a higher level of thinking and you can be forgiven for that. is talking shit your way of going AROUND the question? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
robilaruk Posted February 21, 2007 Share Posted February 21, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand handbags folks? lets keep an otherwise very interesting thread on the staright and narrow please? Am enjoying the thoughts back and forth on this one:ok Damo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jones12345 Posted February 21, 2007 Share Posted February 21, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand me 2 what a great response :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrmuzeman Posted February 22, 2007 Share Posted February 22, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand I've no doubt that the right thing to do is to call - but' date=' I've also no doubt that under this set of circumstances my balls would shrink to the size of peanuts and I'd fold :$ and then regret it for the 10 minutes I'm still in the tourney.[/quote'] That response sums up the feeling of anyone who would fold imo. Youre basically just feared out about it getting cracked and thats influencing your decision. The last part just confirms it when 'im still in the tourny' is mentioned, a very nice proportion of the time you will still be in the tourny by calling too remember! I cant see any rational explanation for a fold. It seems to be along the lines of 'I want to get value for my money' or 'I dont want to play for just 1 hand' etc etc. Does it not occur that 80% of the time (lets say opponent has a pocket pair) you will get a lot more likely playing time by calling as you will win and have a huge stack? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant23 Posted February 22, 2007 Share Posted February 22, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand When MCFC asked the question originally I thought he was on a wind up and my answer was almost immediately call. I still think I would call, but I can appreciate some of the arguments for folding especially if it was in the WSoP M.E. as people would rather experience the atmosphere for more than a couple of minutes. However if your dealt AA and call the all in quick enough you could argue that you had led the WSoP, even if only for a brief moment. :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted February 22, 2007 Share Posted February 22, 2007 Re: Laying down AA first hand So' date=' you're either in front to KK or drawing even on AA. Either way, barring a RRRR straight or flush, you're probably safe. If it's KK and he hits his 5%(?) so be it.[/quote'] You LPM'ers dont know your odds very well do you? :tongue2 KK v AA would be 5% (assuming 2 outs) with one card to come ..... Here it is pre flop, so we are talking 20% for the KK to win the hand (sometimes a K will fall, but the A will also hit ..... KK can win with straights and flushes too ....) - The AA will lose 1 time in 5, which is quite high!! The Aces winning certainly arent a given, buy you're getting not far off even money for an 80% shot..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.JPG.8c5a15b710f7a4188ce438df64354c1e.JPG)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.