RussP's Specialisation - Flat Handicaps

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Overall, a little unlucky yesterday. Finished with a place (Just Bond) but, with a bit more luck, could have had a winner and a place - Just Bond would, maybe should, have got up to win whilst Pravda Street would have grabbed a place with another 20yds. Not to worry though, at least the selections have begun to run a bit better.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 5.25 Brighton Final race of the day and the handicap features 10 runners for a 5f sprint, Class 5 0-70. Again, this looks a very open event and you couldn't back any of the market principles with huge confidence. I firmly believe that Brighton is a track like no other in the UK with such a steep descent and then rising in the final furlong so course form is worth plenty. Looking at the main contenders, Green Velvet is in super form but has only 9 career runs to its name, is raised sharply in the weights and has never run on turf. Has a chance but I cannot take 5's on this. The other horse vying for favouritism is Bluebox, another never to win here. Has disappointed on its only visit here. The horse is in form but on the AW and is stepped up in grade today too. Multahab is a course winner, in fact it has 4 winners and a 2nd from 14 tries here. Looking a little deeper though, its record in Class 5 or above reads 0 wins or places from 5 starts against 4 wins, 1 2nd from 9 starts in Class 6 or below. Matterofact also has won here but may not appreciate the rattling quick ground as much as the others, whilst Drifting Gold has claims with its stable in form but needs to provide its ability to act on the track. This leaves us with an overpriced horse for this 10 runner heat in: Cosmic Destiny (14/1 Betfred) - Conditions today look ideal. Brighton over 5f on quick ground are just what it needs to produce its best. Has raced 15 times here, winning twice, 2nd once and 3rd 5 times. Has only raced twice in this grade on firmish ground here since the start of 08, finishing 3rd & 2nd off marks higher than todays. Interestingly, trainer stated at the back end of 07 that the horse will not get 6f and that he wouldn't run it over that trip again, yet has tried it 6 times since without success. This, in turn, has kept its mark to a decent level and the horse looks capable of winning off its current handicap mark of 66. Since the start of last term, has only raced off a mark this low twice, both on the AW finishing a very close up 4th at Lingfield when squeezed for room and then winning nto at Wolverhampton. Has run 3 times since running nowhere each but excuses - right handed at Kempton didn't suit, outclassed in Class 4, trip to far over 6f. Such a consistent type that I see a big run on the cards. When the race has had its conditions in the last 12 months (ie, AW or fast ground, left handed, Class 5 or below, irrespective of mark), its form has been 2-3-2-4-3-4-1. The only question mark I put on todays race is the jockey booking. Not sure he is value for his 5lb claim and that could be the downfall and reason for the huge odds. If the jockey gives it a good ride, 14/1 could look massive come 5.30pm.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Thought the horse was in with a major shout 2 out. Was travelling as well as anything but run just seemed to flatten out and faded into 5th.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Updated stats after today: 2009 Staked = 260.00pts Returned = 322.88pts Profit = +62.88pts Yield = +24.2% Bets = 26 Winners = 2 (7.7% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 9 (34.6% s/r) 2008 Staked = 270.00pts Returned = 344.77pts Profit = +74.77pts Yield = +27.7% Bets = 27 Winners = 3 (11.1% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 8 (29.6% s/r) 2007 Turf Staked = 1040.00pts Returned = 1669.27pts Profit = +629.27pts Yield = +60.5% Bets = 105 Winners = 19 (18.1% s/r) Places (incl wins) = 41 (39.0% s/r) On a very poor run at present and due a winner very soon. Some key points over the recent weeks:

1. 18 races since a winner
2. Only 5 placed horses in those last 18 races
3. Only 1 placed horse in the last 8 races

Glutton for punishment though, I'll be back with a bet for tomorrow:ok

[fintron]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Keep going mate, only a matter of time till you set things back on track. Good win for Rovers today by the way, almost there now....

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Will this be the 19th race without a winner? 4.20 Newcastle Without doubt, the best race on the card. An 11 runner Class 2 handicap over the straight 6f. It seems likely that there will be a strong pace here so I think the hold up horses could hold sway here. Ultimately, this means I'm against some of the likelier types. Thebes, who is also 6lb above its highest winning mark, falls into this category as does Tamagin (9lb above HWR) and Captain Dunne. I'm also passing over Rising Shadow and Celtic Sultan who both make their seasonal reappearance as well as Valery Borzoc, off for almost 3 months. Of the others, Capricorn Run is probably better on the AW whilst Machinist, a grand old servant, may be getting long in the tooth now. A shortlist of 3 remains and all of them can be given chances. However, in the quest to isolate a selection, Excusez Moi is crossed out as it may need a longer trip and a slight easing in class whilst Barney McGrew is only opposed due to the tight looking price. This leaves us with the bottom one: Sunrise Safari (9/1 Bet365 BOG) - Stable and jockey in top form, and this horse looks capable of adding to their run. Races from the foot of the handicap and has not been in great form last term but this race is well within its limits. Down to a winning mark of just 85 today, not raced off this low for almost 2 years when it won at Doncaster. Loves to come off a fast pace which it will get here and has a nice draw providing the breaks come. Recent form not so great but last twice has had apprentice on and with the visor left off. Visor is now back on and dropped further 3lb in the weights for this run. All its wins have come with the visor on so the return to headgear sure to suit. Has form in this grade but may be better in Class 3, whilst is effective over both 5f and 6f. This horse has contested some very competitive heats too, worth decent prize money. If you like at its form in the last 2 years when the prize money has been under £20K (as today), with visor fitted, it reads 1-4-1-3-1-3. Its form over the same period without visor and/or races over £20K reads 4-12-4-4-7-8-15-11-13-10-15. Admittedly, needs things to drop right but I think this might just be the time to get its career back on track. Nice EW bet against a decent set of handicappers, most of which have questions to answer.

[bowles10]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) unlucky mate, i went with same horse & ended up with 2nd @ 5/1, so a nice price (despite a 20p rule 4!) Ran ok but winner was never going to lose that race.

[billy the punter]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

unlucky mate, i went with same horse & ended up with 2nd @ 5/1, so a nice price (despite a 20p rule 4!) Ran ok but winner was never going to lose that race.

Dunno Rob, I thought Thebes looked the winner throughout (1/3 in-running). He just didn't want to go by and was even caught for 2nd by SS. Spoke about Thebes needing headgear on my thread. Sunrise Safari still looked like he was coming to hand to me, so a good performance. Fahey likes this horse a lot, he thought it took him some time to get over his Dubai exploits last season and as a result never really got going. Looks sure to find a race or two this year I reckon. :ok

[bowles10]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Dunno Rob, I thought Thebes looked the winner throughout (1/3 in-running). He just didn't want to go by and was even caught for 2nd by SS. Spoke about Thebes needing headgear on my thread. Sunrise Safari still looked like he was coming to hand to me, so a good performance. Fahey likes this horse a lot, he thought it took him some time to get over his Dubai exploits last season and as a result never really got going. Looks sure to find a race or two this year I reckon. :ok

To be honest, i was in the bookies so couldnt really get a clear view of the race, but i know they are hard to go past at newcastle, so surprised Thebes went so short in running as the leader looked like it was coming back & then stayed in front. Agree on Sunrise Safari, might pick up a prize or 2. :ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Pleased with the run and EP of 9/1 despite deduction:ok The front 3 pulled well clear and I agree that Sunrise Safari was never quite getting there. Although the leader kept on well for pressure under a cracking ride from Ted Durcan, Thebes looked ungenuine and should really have passed the winner. Good race and another 2nd. Definitely nothing for tomorrow.

[palaceman]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Bad luck Russ. He certainly didn't have a clear run. But to an extent horses make their own luck. He wasn't an easy ride. I felt he didn't look that keen to go past horses, and was seemingly hanging his head a little when asked to do so near the end. Perhaps I'm being unfair, but I'm not convinced he was that much more genuine than Thebes, who I agree with you didn't seem that keen.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 4.05 Pontefract 11 runners for this fillies handicap, a Class 3 0-90 event over 1m2f. Ponty is a difficult track in that it is undulating and has a steep finish so you need to act on the track and have plenty of stamina. Anything with suspect stamina should be discounted. Currently 5/1 the field so plenty of EW value to be had here. Despite the weight for age, I am against 3yo's running against older horses at this stage of the season and, to a lesser extent, 4yo's. It's become more common that horses with a run under their belt are faring better than those making their seasonal reappearance. With those factors considered (ie, 3yo & season debut), we have a shortlist of Casilda, Just Lille, Princess Taylor, Rio Guru and Pension Policy. Casilda is the shortest of these but the first to go. It's only a 4yo but has a massive 10st to carry, it would be a great feat for that horse to win. The 2 4yo's are also overlooked, Pension Policy off for 106 days whilst Rio Guru, although having claims, looks a better AW campaigner. Just Lille has a chance but I am suspect about its run against Halicarnassus and think it may be better in a lower grade. This leaves us with a bet in: Princess Taylor (9/1 Bet365 BOG) - Super jockey booking in Seb and this horse comes here with a major chance if we discount its seasonal reappearance. Stable believe it will strip fitter for that race and, if it does, the odds look generous. She looks to have plenty of stamina having won at Haydock over further so I'm sure this horse will get the trip. Is 3lb above its last winning mark but has won in the grade and, against horses with questions to answer, I'm hopeful she can defy her current mark. Looking at her form last term, she started off finishing a close 2nd in a Class 5 at Newmarket, proving undulations pose no issue. Raised then to 79 and Class 3, she took that heat at Thirsk in fine style. Folowing a couple of average runs, she won at Haydock off 82 in this grade off a furlong further, staying on well. Rounded off the season in Listed company, finishing midfield, but proving that the stable holds her in high regard. Has nothing to show for reappearance this season but that run, plus a slight easing in mark and ground expected to be on the fast side of good, should put her in with a very nice EW chance at a rewarding price.

[devil tish]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) best of luck russ:ok

[Ratmouth]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Oooooh, unlucky again. Another second though mate. Finding a bit of form now!

[devil tish]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

4.05 Pontefract 11 runners for this fillies handicap, a Class 3 0-90 event over 1m2f. Ponty is a difficult track in that it is undulating and has a steep finish so you need to act on the track and have plenty of stamina. Anything with suspect stamina should be discounted. Currently 5/1 the field so plenty of EW value to be had here. Despite the weight for age, I am against 3yo's running against older horses at this stage of the season and, to a lesser extent, 4yo's. It's become more common that horses with a run under their belt are faring better than those making their seasonal reappearance. With those factors considered (ie, 3yo & season debut), we have a shortlist of Casilda, Just Lille, Princess Taylor, Rio Guru and Pension Policy. Casilda is the shortest of these but the first to go. It's only a 4yo but has a massive 10st to carry, it would be a great feat for that horse to win. The 2 4yo's are also overlooked, Pension Policy off for 106 days whilst Rio Guru, although having claims, looks a better AW campaigner. Just Lille has a chance but I am suspect about its run against Halicarnassus and think it may be better in a lower grade. This leaves us with a bet in: Princess Taylor (9/1 Bet365 BOG) - Super jockey booking in Seb and this horse comes here with a major chance if we discount its seasonal reappearance. Stable believe it will strip fitter for that race and, if it does, the odds look generous. She looks to have plenty of stamina having won at Haydock over further so I'm sure this horse will get the trip. Is 3lb above its last winning mark but has won in the grade and, against horses with questions to answer, I'm hopeful she can defy her current mark. Looking at her form last term, she started off finishing a close 2nd in a Class 5 at Newmarket, proving undulations pose no issue. Raised then to 79 and Class 3, she took that heat at Thirsk in fine style. Folowing a couple of average runs, she won at Haydock off 82 in this grade off a furlong further, staying on well. Rounded off the season in Listed company, finishing midfield, but proving that the stable holds her in high regard. Has nothing to show for reappearance this season but that run, plus a slight easing in mark and ground expected to be on the fast side of good, should put her in with a very nice EW chance at a rewarding price.

very unlucky mate, great pick:clap just missed out on a nice bet timocracy @12/1 and princess taylor @8/1 £5 e/w double. lost by a nose:wall place part payed a nice profit though, nice one russ:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 2nd again, beaten a nose:wall To be fair, it ran a really good race, stayed the trip well but got beaten on the nod.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) No bets now until at least Tuesday next week. I can't find anything for tomorrow and am then away for a few days with the family:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 6.55 Ripon A really decent looking Class 4 handicap here over 6f, with 13 runners facing the starter. Ripon is a funny track but I think one really important factor is that you ideally want a horse racing up with the pace. In addition, course form is usually a bonus. Looking at the market principles, I'm discounting them on the following grounds: Indian Trail, hold up performer and a stupid price for a horse that hasn't won in god knows how long; Sunrise Safari, I backed this lto but it seemed a little ungenuine and not willing to pass the leader, so I'll oppose at the odds especially it also prefers to come from off the pace; Solar Spirit is a short price too on its achievements and, in addition, ran poorly second time back last term when made favourite; High Curragh may be a shade high in the weights. Overall I think these all have chances but are opposable at current odds, especially with many of the others holding chances. The one I'm chancing at a huge price is: Baldemar (22/1 SportingBet) - Top weight here, but a stupid price. This horse has twice finished out of the frame this term but is better than that and, returning to its favourite track, has much better claims than its price indicates. Since its handicap debut, has only raced off this mark or lower 3 times, 2nd twice and winning once, whilst racing only once in the grade in the same period, winning that race. Has raced 3 times here, winning twice and 2nd once at 25/1. Likes to race close to the pace so another tick in the horses box, whilst the horse is back at its best trip for this evenings run. Stable in ok nice with its last 6 handicappers finishing 1-7-2-1-2-9; winners coming at 9/1 and 8/1, with the 2 2nds at 3/1 and 12/1. I'm happy to ignore its 2 runs so far this term, seasonal debut at Doncaster in a very nice race whilst struggling for pace at Beverley over the minimum trip, one that is too short for this horse. Consequently, an easing of mark has ensued, now just 1lb above its last winning mark. Capable of better as a 4yo now and those 2 runs will have blown away the cobwebs and I expect this horse to run its race at a very rewarding price.

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Absolute rubbish:$

[Ratmouth]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) I know it's scant consolation but at least all of the opposed nags didn't win :\

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Finding it really tough to find bets these days. Hopefully, we can find one or 2 later in the week at York. There are no all age handicap fields big enough to warrant major consideration tomorrow, but I've had a good, hard look at the last at Yarmouth and my take on it is as follows.... 5.30 Yarmouth BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Director's Chair, 3/1 Streets Apart, 11/2 Agente Romano, 7/1 Locum, 8/1 Dinner Date, 10/1 Dancing Jest, 12/1 General Tufto, 16/1 Rosy Alexander, 25/1 Iceman George. 9 runners for this Class 5, 0-70 handicap over 10f. One by one, my thoughts are: Agente Romano - Unexposed, very lightly raced horse but not sure it has done enough in its career so far to warrant a position near the head of the market. This mark should be well within its grasp but the trip may be a little sharp. Place claims in this company with a positive jockey booking, but 222 days off the track may prove its undoing and will be tapped for toe late on Rosy Alexander - 237 days off the track and cannot see this horse winning here. Won at the course 2 seasons back and another lightly raced type racing off a nice mark. However, its form last term left a lot to be desired and still not sure of its correct trip. Has entries later in the week and this looks to be a pipeopener. Streets Apart - 4yo but only 3 career runs. I'm not a fan of backing horses running their first ever handicap race, especially as a maiden, and 3/1 looks far too short for me. Add to that a track absence of over 200 days and the fact that Walter Swinburn has yet to saddle a winner at the track from 32 runners in the last 5 years, it doesn't represent value. Having said that, the horse likes to race up with the pace and may try to lead here. If it does, what better man to have in the saddle than Ted Durcan. Will see out the trip too without issue. Directors Chair - Shock winner of an amateurs race at Doncaster at the Lincoln meeting, winning at 25/1. Only raised 3lb for that very nice effort but this mark may still be a little high, based on previous form. Saying that, turf form is excellent, 2 wins and 2 2nds from just 4 runs, including a win and a 2nd here. No surprise to see the horse follow up here but again the price looks a little cramped for me, given the form of both stable and jockey. I'd oppose it here but I'd rather be on this than Swinburn's charge. Locum - Hard to discount purely on the basis on jockey, Ryan Moore, who rides really well here and is banging in the winners. Trainer too is amongst the winners currently so has to be considered at around 7/1. The worry is whether the horse is better on the AW and whether the return to turf will hinder its chances. Ran a good race on reappearance last term at 20's so hopeful that the 154 day absence won't be a problem, whilst trip is no issue being equally effective at either 10f or 12f. A maiden though after 14 starts means you wouldn't want to be wading in here. General Tufto - Certainly a better horse on the AW and cannot be backed with confidence here despite 5lb lower mark than just 3 days ago when running well at Nottingham. I have to question the form of that race though; if the form stands up, then 12/1 would be massive but I'm unconvinced. That run was a big improvement too from previous runs back on turf, not sure what the reason was unless the very firm ground played against its rivals strengths. One to rule out. Dancing Jest - Price seems too big for this one. Ran an awful race lto on its reappearance but trip too short, raced alone and hung badly left. Better judged on last seasons form, and its 2nd over C&D in July when leading before being edged out by the fav, finishing clear off the rest. Showed battling qualities that day and I think this horse, if at the front of the pack, can shrug off the challenge of these. Likes the track, trip & going both fine, and its last run over the wrong trip will put this horse spot on fitness-wise for today. Jockey rides the track well whilst the trainer has a very good LSP here. At a double figure price, it would be dangerous to discount this horse. Dinner Date - Trainer is 0-26 at the track and I don't expect that stat to get any better here. Another that is better on the AW and, despite its 5lb drop in the handicap, I'd prefer to see the horse returned to Kempton where it has won 5 times. It's run lto has thrown up some winners but it finished down the field that day. Also seems to be better at 1m. Iceman George - Finished 4th behind Directors Chair in the race at Doncaster and would be 7lb better off with that rival for just under 4L had it not been 4lb out of the handicap here. Has a tendency to hang right under pressure but not a forlorn hope at 25's if others fail to deliver. Conclusion - It's a no bet race for me. Directors Chair looks to have a chance of following up but there are better EW bets and, if pressed, I would side with Dancing Jest at the prices, with Locum the main danger.

[cc75]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Finding it really tough to find bets these days. Hopefully, we can find one or 2 later in the week at York. There are no all age handicap fields big enough to warrant major consideration tomorrow, but I've had a good, hard look at the last at Yarmouth and my take on it is as follows.... 5.30 Yarmouth BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Director's Chair, 3/1 Streets Apart, 11/2 Agente Romano, 7/1 Locum, 8/1 Dinner Date, 10/1 Dancing Jest, 12/1 General Tufto, 16/1 Rosy Alexander, 25/1 Iceman George. 9 runners for this Class 5, 0-70 handicap over 10f. One by one, my thoughts are: Agente Romano - Unexposed, very lightly raced horse but not sure it has done enough in its career so far to warrant a position near the head of the market. This mark should be well within its grasp but the trip may be a little sharp. Place claims in this company with a positive jockey booking, but 222 days off the track may prove its undoing and will be tapped for toe late on Rosy Alexander - 237 days off the track and cannot see this horse winning here. Won at the course 2 seasons back and another lightly raced type racing off a nice mark. However, its form last term left a lot to be desired and still not sure of its correct trip. Has entries later in the week and this looks to be a pipeopener. Streets Apart - 4yo but only 3 career runs. I'm not a fan of backing horses running their first ever handicap race, especially as a maiden, and 3/1 looks far too short for me. Add to that a track absence of over 200 days and the fact that Walter Swinburn has yet to saddle a winner at the track from 32 runners in the last 5 years, it doesn't represent value. Having said that, the horse likes to race up with the pace and may try to lead here. If it does, what better man to have in the saddle than Ted Durcan. Will see out the trip too without issue. Directors Chair - Shock winner of an amateurs race at Doncaster at the Lincoln meeting, winning at 25/1. Only raised 3lb for that very nice effort but this mark may still be a little high, based on previous form. Saying that, turf form is excellent, 2 wins and 2 2nds from just 4 runs, including a win and a 2nd here. No surprise to see the horse follow up here but again the price looks a little cramped for me, given the form of both stable and jockey. I'd oppose it here but I'd rather be on this than Swinburn's charge. Locum - Hard to discount purely on the basis on jockey, Ryan Moore, who rides really well here and is banging in the winners. Trainer too is amongst the winners currently so has to be considered at around 7/1. The worry is whether the horse is better on the AW and whether the return to turf will hinder its chances. Ran a good race on reappearance last term at 20's so hopeful that the 154 day absence won't be a problem, whilst trip is no issue being equally effective at either 10f or 12f. A maiden though after 14 starts means you wouldn't want to be wading in here. General Tufto - Certainly a better horse on the AW and cannot be backed with confidence here despite 5lb lower mark than just 3 days ago when running well at Nottingham. I have to question the form of that race though; if the form stands up, then 12/1 would be massive but I'm unconvinced. That run was a big improvement too from previous runs back on turf, not sure what the reason was unless the very firm ground played against its rivals strengths. One to rule out. Dancing Jest - Price seems too big for this one. Ran an awful race lto on its reappearance but trip too short, raced alone and hung badly left. Better judged on last seasons form, and its 2nd over C&D in July when leading before being edged out by the fav, finishing clear off the rest. Showed battling qualities that day and I think this horse, if at the front of the pack, can shrug off the challenge of these. Likes the track, trip & going both fine, and its last run over the wrong trip will put this horse spot on fitness-wise for today. Jockey rides the track well whilst the trainer has a very good LSP here. At a double figure price, it would be dangerous to discount this horse. Dinner Date - Trainer is 0-26 at the track and I don't expect that stat to get any better here. Another that is better on the AW and, despite its 5lb drop in the handicap, I'd prefer to see the horse returned to Kempton where it has won 5 times. It's run lto has thrown up some winners but it finished down the field that day. Also seems to be better at 1m. Iceman George - Finished 4th behind Directors Chair in the race at Doncaster and would be 7lb better off with that rival for just under 4L had it not been 4lb out of the handicap here. Has a tendency to hang right under pressure but not a forlorn hope at 25's if others fail to deliver. Conclusion - It's a no bet race for me. Directors Chair looks to have a chance of following up but there are better EW bets and, if pressed, I would side with Dancing Jest at the prices, with Locum the main danger.

You can be a scary, scary man RussP - Locum first at 3/1 and Dancing Jest 2nd at 25/1!! Nicely worked out mate despite not making them bets :ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Cheers CC:ok Yeah, it was a no bet but 1st and 2nd at those prices was a pretty pleasing result & analysis.;) 1st Locum 3/1 2nd Dancing Jest 25/1

[fintron]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) warming up nicely for York, Russ

[Ratmouth]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) One word - genius. I started to worry when the odds for Dancing Jest flew out to 40/1 on betfair!

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 5.25 Thirsk Just 10 for this Class 4 handicap over 5f. The going is likely to be on the easy side of good and so a horse with proven form on good/soft or soft is needed. A really open heat going 5/1 the field, but I'm sticking to the double figure prices for this and going with: Green Park (10/1 William Hill) - Last win was 6 starts ago, off a mark 1lb higher than todays in this grade, over this trip and on this ground. On that basis, the price looks extremely generous. Since then though, form has tailed off somewhat but with valid reasons. 4 of those starts were in a class 2 grades above todays whilst the other race in 1 grade higher yielded a 3rd on the AW off 4lb higher than this. From lto, this horse has been dropped 2lb in the weights, 2 grades, 3f and now races off g/s. Will strip fitter for that run and, against a modest bunch on a track that suits, this horse will go close. Sorry for the short write up. Bit busy today:ok

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) 7.40 Doncaster With 4 out, that leaves the bare 16 for this Class 4, 6f sprint. Again, the ground is on the soft side so we are looking for something that will be suited by the conditions. The one for me is: Gift Horse (7/1 William Hill) - Dandy Nicholls trained, and it's dangerous to dismiss a Nicholls trained horse over any sprint trip especially at the Northern tracks. This horse was formerly top class but is getting on a bit now. However, it races off its lowest ever mark today, dropped 5lb in the handicap. Not really shown up much in 2 runs this term but headgear is back on today and I think that's a signal of intentions. Off this mark, in this grade, it will be difficult to keep the horse out of the frame. Loves the going, goes well at the track too and jockey / trainer combo will be in confident mood, especially after Valery Borzov's easy win yesterday at York. Dandy's son takes the ride and, in its 45 run career, he has only ridden the horse 3 times, winning once and placing on the other 2 occasions. Without a win for quite a while but these are not a great bunch of handicappers and it's surely its easiest task for many a day. Superb EW bet.

[bowles10]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) spooky, even went for the same comments! strange that his son has only picked up the ride on 3 occasions, then again quite often Dandy runs 2 or 3 in the same race & perhaps Adrian always had a better choice. Between this one & carleton for me.,

[diamond1924]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat) Russ, do you ever notice how quickly the SP drops after you tip a horse up?

[RussP]

Re: RussP's Specialisation - Big Field Handicaps (Flat)

Russ' date=' do you ever notice how quickly the SP drops after you tip a horse up?[/quote'] The way they are running at the minute, the price should be increasing:lol