FleetFanatic Posted March 3, 2006 Author Share Posted March 3, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles So I discovered this afternoon, having placed my bet and left for work. (Note to self: in future, when wintery weather about, don't place bets until Saturday after having a chance to revise selections!) As I have placed bets, I will not pick a replacement selection for any postponements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 3, 2006 Author Share Posted March 3, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Sheff Utd rated 40 (1/3) Awful odds on Sheff Utd and I'm not taking them. I'm that keen on Watford's either, to be honest. 1/3 on a team who's form over the last 6 matches rates -3? I don't care that they're playing Crewe. I'd rather lose chasing better odds than risk for a small gain. Bloody wise decision yet again, as Sheff Utd 0 Crewe 0! :lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 3, 2006 Author Share Posted March 3, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Ok, as a test I have further tweaked the system. Not this is a test only - I have altered just one thing & that is how we calculate the away record. Instead of WINS MINUS DRAWS MINUS DEFEATS I have calculated with WINS PLUS DRAWS MINUS DEFEATS Note: the home record calculation remains as it was. The theory being that we want the away team to lose, so technically, an away side drawing games should work against the home side, not for the home side. Doing this gives just 20 teams a positive rating (after ignoring all matches that have already been called off): 36 Watford 4/7 25 Man City 2/5 23 Huddersfield 4/5 23 Woking 4/6 19 Cardiff 4/6 17 Liverpool 1/2 15 West Ham 1/1 12 Peterborough 8/13 10 Chesterfield 8/11 7 Middlesbrough 10/11 7 Exeter 8/15 6 Aston Villa 8/11 6 Norwich 8/11 6 Plymouth 8/11 5 Tottenham 10/11 4 Barnsley 11/10 3 Crystal Palace 11/10 3 Grays 4/7 2 Fulham 11/5 I just wondered what you guys thought of this idea? The other ratings, for comparison: Watford 52 (4/7) Cardiff 29 (4/6) Woking 29 (4/6) Huddersfield 27 (4/5) Man City 25 (2/5) Peterborough 24 (8/13) Plymouth 22 (8/11) Liverpool 21 (1/2) West Ham 19 (1/1) Barnsley 16 (11/10) Chesterfield 16 (8/11) Crystal Palace 15 (11/10) Middlesbrough 13 (10/11) Exeter 13 (8/15) Notice that Woking & Huddersfield still rate highly, even Cardiff! If you haven't placed a bet yet - maybe both sets of ratings will help you choose. I'm now lumbered with a double, it seems. Just hope the other two games kick-off and come through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dai Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles What happens now then, do you have to wait for the Carlise game to be played to settle your acc, or does it just get taken out of the acc.? Ie, is your treble now a double, and is your 7 fold now a 6 fold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 3, 2006 Author Share Posted March 3, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Yep - Carlisle gets removed and I have a double & 6-fold. The £113.17 double at Ladbrokes on Huddersfield & Woking will still return £339.51 if they win. Updated state of bets: Woking 29 (4/6) Huddersfield 27 (4/5) £113.17 staked in an attempt to return £339.51 :hope Bank now £325.04 7-fold is now a 6-fold: Woking 29 (4/6) Huddersfield 27 (4/5) Plymouth 22 (8/11) West Ham 19 (1/1) Barnsley 16 (11/10) Crystal Palace 15 (11/10) £36.50 staked in an attempt to return £1668.18 :hope (Attempt 1 at Level 2) Bank now £783.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 4, 2006 Author Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles The annoying thing is, I'm tempted to add a 2nd 7-fold bet to tomorrow. To do it or not to do it..... considering that the end of the season will come before the big target payday will (probably). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted March 4, 2006 Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles The theory being that we want the away team to lose, so technically, an away side drawing games should work against the home side, not for the home side. FF, It sound great in theory. (how does Sheff Utd v Crewe now work out) Have you back tested this "tweak" from the results previously posted ? I think this is the only way to really tell but - it's going to be difficult to improve on your success so far. :ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 4, 2006 Author Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Sheff Utd would have rated 28 instead of 40, but our rules says the price of 1/3 was too short to be included anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laying larry Posted March 4, 2006 Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles nice thought FF, just done a little trebles, watford, Huddersfield, & woking based on the results of your 2 methods. The little "tweak" sounds very logical will have to wait and see. Going off this weeks ratings looks to be a little poor in general. Cheers LL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 4, 2006 Author Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Thanks - have not added any further bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 4, 2006 Author Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Huddersfield 1 up on 8 mins..... .....1-1 on 15 mins..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 4, 2006 Author Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Updated state of bets: Woking 29 (4/6) 0-1 :@ Huddersfield 27 (4/5) 2-2 £113.17 staked in an attempt to return £339.51 :hope Bank now £325.04 7-fold is now a 6-fold: Woking 29 (4/6) 0-1 :@ Huddersfield 27 (4/5) 2-2 Plymouth 22 (8/11) 1-0 West Ham 19 (1/1) 2-2 Barnsley 16 (11/10) 2-2 Crystal Palace 15 (11/10) 0-2 :@ £36.50 staked in an attempt to return £1668.18 :hope (Attempt 1 at Level 2) Bank now £783.50 Latest scores next to the odds. Note to self: maybe consider only odds between 4/6 and evens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 4, 2006 Author Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Ok, as a test I have further tweaked the system. Not this is a test only - I have altered just one thing & that is how we calculate the away record. Instead of WINS MINUS DRAWS MINUS DEFEATS I have calculated with WINS PLUS DRAWS MINUS DEFEATS Note: the home record calculation remains as it was. The theory being that we want the away team to lose, so technically, an away side drawing games should work against the home side, not for the home side. Doing this gives just 20 teams a positive rating (after ignoring all matches that have already been called off): 36 Watford 4/7 lost 1-2 25 Man City 2/5 23 Huddersfield 4/5 drew 2-2 23 Woking 4/6 lost 0-1 19 Cardiff 4/6 won 1-0 :D 17 Liverpool 1/2 drew 0-0 15 West Ham 1/1 drew 2-2 12 Peterborough 8/13 won 2-0 :D 10 Chesterfield 8/11 lost 0-2 7 Middlesbrough 10/11 won 1-0 :D 7 Exeter 8/15 won 5-0 :D 6 Aston Villa 8/11 won 1-0 :D 6 Norwich 8/11 won 2-1 :D 6 Plymouth 8/11 won 1-0 :D 5 Tottenham 10/11 4 Barnsley 11/10 drew 2-2 3 Crystal Palace 11/10 lost 1-2 3 Grays 4/7 won 5-0 :D 2 Fulham 11/5 lost 0-4 There were enough winners in there. :sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GRSTAR Posted March 4, 2006 Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles We need woking for the double ... come on...:hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 4, 2006 Author Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Jamie Guy, ex-Fleet loanee scores for Cambridge.:@ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friskyfitz Posted March 4, 2006 Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles :wall:wall:wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 4, 2006 Author Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Treble system Lost Bank now £325.04 next bet £10. 7-fold system: Lost Bank now £783.50 - next bet £36.50 (Attempt 2 at Level 2). Sorry people - we'll be back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf4ever Posted March 4, 2006 Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles hello Fleet, had to register to say well done on your bookie bashing the last few weeks.Followed thread for last 2 weeks, great stuff. Bad luck this week but as you know, you can't win every week. I've got minor concern about unfancied teams getting a result at 'banker' teams this time of year cos of the relegation factor...what do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 4, 2006 Author Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Exactly. And they seem to be the teams we're rejecting normally, such as Sheff Utd and today Watford. Always said that this weekend would be tough. We'll be evaluating things for next weekend, including the system methods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 4, 2006 Author Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Right, been studying this most of the evening and I will be sticking with the original ratings method, purely on the grounds that it has served us well until today. (todays selections were based on the old method and wouldn't have been any different under the new one really.) Other rules to clarify - I will chase value but not a greedy profit. What I mean is that odds will be min of 8/15 and a max of 10/11. If I had done that today then Woking & Huddersfield would have let us down still anyway, along with a further 2 postponements. In future weeks, if this means there are not enough qualifiers for the 7-fold then we shall simply wait until the next set of fixtures. And finally, losing is built into this system and expected so today is no big deal - just one step backwards (look at last week - lots of steps forward!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 4, 2006 Author Share Posted March 4, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Finally, for the record, the complete midweek ratings: Plymouth -5 Wolves 12 Yeovil -19 Swindon -1 Bury 11 Chester -7 Aldershot -20 Cambridge -11 Dagenham 7 Exeter 2 Gravesend -7 :@ :@ :@ Obviously no bet for me - next weekend's ratings / bets will be up on Wednesday, possibly Thursday at the latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laying larry Posted March 5, 2006 Share Posted March 5, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles I will be steering well clear of mid week matches going off those ratings FF. Sticking to the same method sounds good as we can't win every week can we :loon . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted March 5, 2006 Share Posted March 5, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles hello Fleet, had to register to say well done on your bookie bashing the last few weeks.Followed thread for last 2 weeks, great stuff. Bad luck this week but as you know, you can't win every week. I've got minor concern about unfancied teams getting a result at 'banker' teams this time of year cos of the relegation factor...what do you think?Welcome Wolf:welcome Hope to see you post more regularly on here now! Plenty of banter going on in the Championship threads, look forward to hearing your thoughts on the Mighty Wolves.:ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidmphill Posted March 5, 2006 Share Posted March 5, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Chin up Fleet, you can't expect to lord it every week although it would be nice! I'm sure you'll be back.:ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 5, 2006 Author Share Posted March 5, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles That's my point exactly - I will only need to 'lord it' 10% of the time.:rollin 9 steps backward will be far outweighed by the one step forward. Current profit on the 7-fold covers the next 45 bets even if we never won again! (9 x £36.50 - no win would mean dropping to the remaining £365 covering 36 £10 attempts. Obviously a win at any stage will raise us 1 level from where we are at the time & increase our betting fund.) Next week looks more promising :hope - just got to fill in the gaps on my grid after the midweek matches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted March 5, 2006 Share Posted March 5, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Fleet, I had been meaning to ask you about the calculations for the away teams in the system re adding wins & draws before subtracting defeats,before you annouced this weekend's experiment. as it would only take a team to get an away draw to mess up a nice acca & maybe the current method (subtracting draws & defeats) could give a misleading indication of a team's chances of such a result. eg if a team had an away record of 0 wins, 15 draws & 2 defeats, the current system would give them an away factor of -17, whereas their chances of getting a draw from their next away match would probably be excellent. Maybe you shouldn't totally dismiss this weekends experiment, but perhaps keep an eye out for good 'away drawers'. mind you i'm sure you would notice something like that example & give that match a miss, something you have done quite skillfully so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aphex Method Posted March 6, 2006 Share Posted March 6, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Unlucky with the double Fleet, couldn't believe the Woking result, that looked a surefire winner based on home/away form, but nothing is a cert is it....:wall They were my main bet this weekend! Looks good though, onwards and upwards for next weekend, all the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wolf4ever Posted March 6, 2006 Share Posted March 6, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles FF, we need to pull out all stops this week because i need £345 to renew my wolves season ticket on the early bird scheme and i've only got till 17th march :@ a fiver on one of your nice juicy 7-folds should do the trick :hope hope results are kinder to us this weekend cos i'm coming aboard :nana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 7, 2006 Author Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Gee, the pressure of it all..... .....I envisage the selections being up tomorrow. I'll complete the ratings off at work tonight once the matches being played are finished. I can already see 3 teams that will probably be in the 7-fold and 1 of those in the treble. Full details tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FleetFanatic Posted March 7, 2006 Author Share Posted March 7, 2006 Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Fleet' date=' I had been meaning to ask you about the calculations for the away teams in the system re adding wins & draws before subtracting defeats,before you annouced this weekend's experiment. as it would only take a team to get an away draw to mess up a nice acca & maybe the current method (subtracting draws & defeats) could give a misleading indication of a team's chances of such a result. eg if a team had an away record of 0 wins, 15 draws & 2 defeats, the current system would give them an away factor of -17, whereas their chances of getting a draw from their next away match would probably be excellent. Maybe you shouldn't totally dismiss this weekends experiment, but perhaps keep an eye out for good 'away drawers'. mind you i'm sure you would notice something like that example & give that match a miss, something you have done quite skillfully so far![/quote'] I've decided to leave it as I started - like you said, we've been doing quite well. Last weekend's selections were chosen by the original method - the alternative ratings were posted as a comparison after I had already posted the selections - the new method only produced a slightly different set of teams. The thing is that if an away team did have 0 wins 15 draws and 2 defeats, they would only be being backed to lose because of the strength of the home team. I decided 'if it ain't broken..... not to fix it.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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