Fleet's UK Footie Trebles

[davidmphill]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Great work Fleet, Carlisle made you sweat a bit I bet!

[Kanga]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Nicely done FF :clap Got any figures for Newcastle tomorrow ?

[callpane]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles two words mate, shit hot!!

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles

Having rated the midweek conference matches: Accrington rate 34 4/6 Hereford rate 37 8/15 Gonna stick them in a treble with Carlisle 8/13 LDV Vans Trophy Match If this was a league fixture, Carlisle would rate 42. Breaking my 'no cup games' rule but is based on the theory Carlisle are on fire overall and Macclesfield are 'slighty crap' :unsure , gotta make the treble at those odds. My biggest concern is Accrington - sooner or later, they'll slip up? 1st vs 2nd could be the time, although Morecambe aren't that fantastic away from home. £21.16 staked in an attempt to return £87.35.:hope Bank now £168.20.

Thanks Kanga. Midweek: Accrington 2 Morecambe 0 Can anybody stop Accrington? The more they win, the longer they will feature in my selections - it's the way the ratings work. Let's just hope that when they do slip up, it's away from home, eh? 1 in, 2 to go tonight - I shall be rooted to the internet at work!

Picture the evening at work..... Hereford go 1 up early on, then 2 up & despite a reply from Aldershot, never looked in doubt. :unsure On the other hand, Carlisle...... .....go 1 down after 3 minutes. ''Never mind, Macclesfield are crap, 87 min to go'' I think. Sure enough the equaliser comes. Gets to half-time 1-1, ''45 mins for Carlisle to murder 'em," I'm convinced. Waiting, waiting.....resign myself to possibly losing as we get to 5 mins left. FT's coming in all over the place, Carlisle still not showing as over..... ......then a 90th minute winner, you beauty!!!!!:notworthy :notworthy :notworthy Accrington rate 34 4/6 won 2-0 :clap Hereford rate 37 8/15 won 2-1 :clap Carlisle 8/13 won 2-1 :notworthy Bank now: £255.55 Next bet: £43.68

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles

How do you calculate the ratings of the teams? And what kind of odds do you get on each match?

Odds have been shown throughout? Method to get ratings involves looking at the difference in league placings, home teams home record, away teams away record and the current form of the home team. Different winning margins earn different amounts of points. Home defeats cost a teams rating more than away defeats. The ratings do not rate the away teams chance of winning as much as the likelihood of a home win. In the even of more than 3 suitable selections, I have always gone for the 3 with the best price. You won't find Chelsea selected in this thread. PS rate 47 for Saturday but have you seen the odds?

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles

Nicely done FF :clap Got any figures for Newcastle tomorrow ?

Overall rating is for the home win is -4, mainly due to Newcastle's crap record overall. League difference: -2 (Charlton are higher) Plus Newcastle's Home record: -1 (wins minus draws minus defeats) Minus Charlton's Away record: -2 (wins minus draws minus defeats) Plus Newcastle's overall form (last six games home and away): -3 (complicated scoring method) Minus a minus is the same as adding the number: (-2) + (-1) - (-2) + (-3) = -4 That rating suggests a one goal victory either way or a draw. To me, using this system, it's simply 'a don't touch it' match. As a ratings guide: 30+: on paper, consider it a banker 21-30: should win (but there's always one that doesn't) 11-20: probably win (but starting to get a few doubts) -10 to 10: could go either way by a goal, or a draw below -10: avoid! Personally though, I think Newcastle will beat Charlton and have had a bet away from this system involving Wednesday's & Thursday's matches. Next system bet will be at the weekend.

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles

good evening FF another belting result for the treble' date=' bit close though.:cheers[/quote']

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles And onto the weekend Fri 24th - Mon 27th Feb: 7 teams qualify: Southend rated 48 1/2 Chelsea rated 47 1/7 (which is why they don't get included!) Accrington rated 41 1/2 Sheff Utd rated 33 1/2 Watford rated 33 4/5 Leeds rated 31 8/11 Reading rated 31 4/6 Which means Watford, Leeds & Reading make the treble. I must admit it concerns me to have 3 teams, all from The Championship, but they are the 3 with best odds and this route has served us well so far. £43.68 staked in an attempt to return £226.34. :hope Bank now: £211.87

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles In case anybody is interested, most weeks any team over 20 does well. Some weeks it has scored 100% of home wins! Might be a tall order this week as 17 teams rate 20+: 48 Southend 47 Chelsea 41 Accrington 33 Sheff Utd / Watford 31 Leeds / Reading 26 Oldham / York 25 Brentford / Hereford 24 Bolton 23 Ipswich / Wycombe 22 Lincoln 21 Coventry / Nott'm F Make of this what you will.

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles

As a ratings guide: 30+: on paper, consider it a banker 21-30: should win (but there's always one that doesn't) 11-20: probably win (but starting to get a few doubts) -10 to 10: could go either way by a goal, or a draw below -10: avoid!

Next question: how accurate is this? Take the midweek conference ratings: Accrington rated 41 (banker) won :clap Burton rated 17 (probably win) won :clap Forest Green rated 0 (1 goal either way or draw) draw :clap Grays rated 1 (1 goal either way or draw) lost 0-4 (oops) :$ Hereford rated 37 (banker) won :clap Kidderminster rated 20 (probably win) won :clap Stevenage rated 22 (should win) won :clap Woking rated 2 (1 goal either way or draw) won 1-0 :clap York rated 15 (probably win) won :clap Quite accurate, to say the least.

[davidmphill]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Great going Fleet. Things look very promising.

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles

Nicely done FF :clap Got any figures for Newcastle tomorrow ?

Overall rating is for the home win is -4, mainly due to Newcastle's crap record overall. That rating suggests a one goal victory either way or a draw. To me, using this system, it's simply 'a don't touch it' match.

Hate to say I told you so..... (Newcastle 0 Charlton 0)

[Kanga]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Good News FF - as I layed Charlton :ok Your ratings are spot on bud - keep up the good work :clap

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles

And onto the weekend Fri 24th - Mon 27th Feb: Which means Watford, Leeds & Reading make the treble. I must admit it concerns me to have 3 teams, all from The Championship, but they are the 3 with best odds and this route has served us well so far. £43.68 staked in an attempt to return £226.34. :hope Bank now: £211.87

And as a side bet, a lucky 7-fold: :hope The 7 teams rated 20+ with the best odds:

Selections

Time of bet: 23/02/2006 07:02:42

	Event Date	Event	Selections	Odds	E/W Terms	Result
1	26/02/2006	Bolton v Fulham (Full Time Result)	Bolton	4/5	None	To Run
2	25/02/2006	Coventry v Burnley (Full Time Result)	Coventry	10/11	None	To Run
3	25/02/2006	Ipswich v Leicester (Full Time Result)	Ipswich	10/11	None	To Run
4	25/02/2006	Watford v Cardiff (Full Time Result)	Watford	4/5	None	To Run
5	25/02/2006	Oldham v Tranmere (Full Time Result)	Oldham	10/11	None	To Run
6	25/02/2006	Lincoln City v Notts County (Full Time Result)	Lincoln City	4/5	None	To Run
7	27/02/2006	Hereford v Stevenage (Full Time Result)	Hereford	4/5	None	To Run

Multiples

Bet Type	No of Bets	Unit Stake	Stake	To Win	Returns
Seven-Folds	1	10.00	10.00	720.41

Nothing ventured, nothing gained.....

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles And for a piss-take attempt::hope :rollin :hope The 14 teams rated 10+ with the best odds:

Selections

Time of bet: 23/02/2006 07:04:48

	Event Date	Event	Selections	Odds	E/W Terms	Result
1	26/02/2006	Bolton v Fulham (Full Time Result)	Bolton	4/5	None	To Run
2	25/02/2006	Coventry v Burnley (Full Time Result)	Coventry	10/11	None	To Run
3	25/02/2006	Crystal Palace v Norwich (Full Time Result)	Crystal Palace	5/6	None	To Run
4	25/02/2006	Ipswich v Leicester (Full Time Result)	Ipswich	10/11	None	To Run
5	25/02/2006	Leeds v Luton (Full Time Result)	Leeds	8/11	None	To Run
6	25/02/2006	Watford v Cardiff (Full Time Result)	Watford	4/5	None	To Run
7	25/02/2006	Gillingham v Scunthorpe (Full Time Result)	Gillingham	10/11	None	To Run
8	25/02/2006	Nottm Forest v Swindon (Full Time Result)	Nottm Forest	8/11	None	To Run
9	25/02/2006	Oldham v Tranmere (Full Time Result)	Oldham	10/11	None	To Run
10	25/02/2006	Leyton Orient v Darlington (Full Time Result)	Leyton Orient	4/5	None	To Run
11	25/02/2006	Lincoln City v Notts County (Full Time Result)	Lincoln City	4/5	None	To Run
12	25/02/2006	Shrewsbury v Bury (Full Time Result)	Shrewsbury	4/5	None	To Run
13	25/02/2006	Gravesend v Scarborough (Full Time Result)	Gravesend	8/11	None	To Run
14	27/02/2006	Hereford v Stevenage (Full Time Result)	Hereford	4/5	None	To Run

Multiples

Bet Type	No of Bets	Unit Stake	Stake	To Win	Returns
Fourteen-Folds	1	1.00	1.00	4267.37

Naturally, this is expected to lose, but for a quid I couldn't resist! Mind you midweek I tried this and got 11 wins, 2 draws & 1 loser so you never know.

[davidmphill]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Impressive stuff here Fleet. Good luck for the weekend.

[callpane]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles hi fleet, just wondered if you got my message requesting details of your system workings, if you don't want to pass on details thats cool, but i'd appreciate it if you could let me know. Thanks mate callpane

[Clotty]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles This example that Fleet gave for the Newcastle v. Charlton game might help you ...

Overall rating is for the home win is -4, mainly due to Newcastle's crap record overall. League difference: -2 (Charlton are higher) Plus Newcastle's Home record: -1 (wins minus draws minus defeats) Minus Charlton's Away record: -2 (wins minus draws minus defeats) Plus Newcastle's overall form (last six games home and away): -3 (complicated scoring method) Minus a minus is the same as adding the number: (-2) + (-1) - (-2) + (-3) = -4 That rating suggests a one goal victory either way or a draw. To me, using this system, it's simply 'a don't touch it' match. As a ratings guide: 30+: on paper, consider it a banker 21-30: should win (but there's always one that doesn't) 11-20: probably win (but starting to get a few doubts) -10 to 10: could go either way by a goal, or a draw below -10: avoid!

It's proving very useful to say the least. Hope this helps.

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Must confess I have only just read your private message after seeing your comment above. OK - the method is as follows: it is very similar to bookies 'r' bust as some people have commented. Except we've scrapped the perming part. We take no notice of tipsters. We bank half on a win and use the other half as the next stake. And we also use the rating in bands to evaluate the likelihood of a home win and use that information accordingly. We know that nothing in life is guaranteed, so losing can still happen. :cry Did you know that if we could get a 4/1 treble, bank half, other half used as the next stake & could achieve this 10 times on the trot, that on the 10th bet if we walked away we would have just over £250k including all the banked money from the previous bets? :loon Obviously, not every treble is going to pay 4/1 - most average 2/1 to 5/1 under this system though. My record so far is 4 on the spin (3 times) - eventually we'll make 5 then who knows? :hope RATE ONLY HOME TEAMS PREMIERSHIP TO CONFERENCE ONLY (Any other leagues is at your own risk) NO CUP GAMES UNLESS 2 TEAMS ARE IN SAME LEAGUE DIVISION Draw up a grid with the following columns: Home team / Odds to win / League Diff / Home form / Away Form / Home Overall Form / Total. 1st 2 columns explain themselves - if they don't then you shouldn't be betting! :lol League Diff is the difference in league places. If home team is lower than the away team then the number will be a minus figure. Home form: home team's home wins minus draws minus home defeats Away form: away team's away wins minus away draws minus away defeats Home overall form: Look at home teams last 6 LEAGUE GAMES ONLY. Award points as follows: Home wins by 1 goal - 1 point Home wins by 2 goals - 3 points Home wins by 3 or more goals - 6 points Away wins by 1 goal - 2 points Away wins by 2 goals - 5 points Away wins by 3 or more goals - 7 points Home draws - nothing Away draws - 1 point Home defeats - MINUS 4 POINTS Away defeats - MINUS 2 POINTS TOTAL: Calculated as follows: League Diff + Home form - Away Form + Home Overall Form The crucial thing to remember is that when subtracting the away form, if this is a minus figure, will actually meaning adding the number to the total. ie (10) - (-5) = 10 + 5 = 15 Remember: minus a minus is a plus! :spank As a ratings guide: 30+: on paper, consider it a banker 21-30: should win (but there's always one that doesn't) 11-20: probably win (but starting to get a few doubts) -10 to 10: could go either way by a goal, or a draw below -10: avoid! A large minus figure does not mean a banker away win - you've rated the home side, not the away side! Although the away team does win more than lose in these situations. For the treble, stick to teams that rate 30 or higher. If more than 3, take the 3 with the best odds. The 7-fold (best 7 odds from 20+) and 14-fold (best 14 odds from 10+) are not part of this system and are merely fun side-bets. I can't get it to work in any other league except the UK - don't ask me why but it doesn't work! I stick to the leagues with full-time sides too - the lower leagues have too many variables too, it would seem. Got all this? Of course, if you can't be arsed to do all this, just wait for me to post. :rollin I continue in my quest for riches.:hope

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Forgot to add - starting stake 10 points (in my case £10 pounds) Also, when a winning run ends, the stakes reverts back to your starting stake. Whilst I have had losing trebles, everytime it has been to teams drawing. Not once has a home team selection actually lost yet (it will happen eventually) & only twice has a 30+ team lost (thankfully, they were both too short pricewise to be a selection.) Now the question is, in what others ways could the rating be used for? Laying the away side playing against a team rated 30+?

[callpane]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Brilliant mate, much appreciated:clap

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles No problem. If you had rated tonight's match, Swansea vs Huddersfield, you'll see that the rating came out as (-1) + (1) - (-6) + (-2) = 4 (in other words, no bet for me) Ratings suggests 'a goal either way or a draw' - actual score: Swansea 2 Huddersfield 2.

[Bedlam]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Excellent thread Fleet,the results so far have been incredibly accurate:clap. This weekend will be a big test for the system, as I see it rates Reading as banker material:eek against a Preston side who are unbeaten in 22 league matches! Reading have undoubtably been the best, most consistant team in The Championship this season, but I rate Preston very close on current form & was considering a lay of reading in this one. Leeds form has dipped of late, were lucky to beat Watford & by all accounts were pretty flat against Derby & Leicester, have injury problems up front. Luton have proved what they are capable of at various times this season including recently against Reading! Obviously no system comes out on top every week, but if this weeks treble comes in then you have something massive on your hands. I really hope it does!:hope

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles So do I - but I did state I was a bit worried this week due to all 3 selections being in one division.:unsure The possible flaw in this system could be as you stated regards Preston. As we're not rating the away side as completely as the home side, we are ignoring the current form of the away side. However, we are assuming that home advantage is exactly that. Reading's run ended away at Luton, so let's hope Preston's ends away tomorrow. :hope All the time the selections win, they are likley to be qualifiers the next time that they are at home - it's simply the way the system has panned out. 1 home defeat can wreck a teams rating though, especially if the -4 points is replacing a big away win 6 matches earlier (overall effect in that scenario would be to reduced the next home match rating by 11 points and that would just be the current form column!) On the other hand, I have looked elsewhere in the list for a couple of bigger acca's and the 3 bets shown for this weekend are not the only trebles (and other acca's) that I have actually placed. But a system can only be called that by taking the selections that meet the rules of the system. I could have taken a couple of 1/2 (odds) selections to break it up but I have always gone for the biggest odds from the qualifiers. My Gravesend & Northfleet are at home tomorrrow so I won't be sweating in front of Soccer Saturday on sky but will be keen to get home and see how I got on. But remember even if the treble loses tomorrow, we started this run with a £10 bet. £10 won / returned £42.32 - we banked £21.16. £21.16 won / returned £87.35 - we banked £43.67 So after deducting the original stake, we have already banked £54.83 profit from the current run - even if tomorrow's £43.68 treble loses.:clap The banking half method when winning but returning to £10 after a loss ensures a profit regardless - the bigger a winning run, the quicker the profit escalates. We started with £100 and have already more than doubled it.:clap

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles As for Leeds, they haven't won away since Jan 2nd yet won all their home games in the same period. Watford have been on fire the last 2 home games, scoring 4 in both, either side of 4 away at Sheff Utd. You can see why we rate home teams only? If a team is gonna blow it, it's more likely away from home. As for tomorrow - what will be will be - we can't win every time.

[Bedlam]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Thanks for the detailed explanation Fleet, i like the system even more now! As for this afternoon The Fleet should keep your nerves down to a minimum with a fairly straightforward win!!

[FleetFanatic]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Cheers- previous seasons have seen us win 4-0, draw 1-1 and win 5-2. Scarborough appear to be 'more crap' then previous seasons and it's a long way for them to travel so I hope so!

[TheRat]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles I'll start having a go at this mate Good work, and good luck! :hope

[maj69er]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles Best of luck FleetFanatic. I know the time and hardwork that goes into any system.... I wish you all a safe and blessed day and a profitable one! Majid

[Bedlam]

Re: Football: Fleet's Trebles

Obviously no system comes out on top every week, but if this weeks treble comes in then you have something massive on your hands. I really hope it does!:hope

:clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap :clap Incredible!! We have somthing massive on our hands!