SLH Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 I've just had a call from Lads informing about the mistake... bet void. Nice try anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cataclyptic Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Me too, thanks - at least they are more on the ball than the tote, who just let it run. Certainly makes hunting for value bets a bit chancy when they can cancel them any time they like by coming up with 'it's a mistake'. I can't help wondering what they'd say if I quoted my system had made a mistake and I shouldn't have placed a bet.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Chepstow 13:35 - How does Nictos de Bercy rate with your system as a matter of interest placed :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cataclyptic Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Great, maybe you can stop banging your head on the table now..lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 The bastards wrote an e-mail to me to contact them by e-mail or phone before 14.00. Do I want my bet to be void or taken @ 6/1. I said void my bet and they still placed it, because it lose. What is this sh*t ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 22, 2006 Author Share Posted November 22, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 The bastards wrote an e-mail to me to contact them by e-mail or phone before 14.00. Do I want my bet to be void or taken @ 6/1. I said void my bet and they still placed it' date=' because it lose. What is this sh*t ???[/quote'] To be fair, they probably settled the bet automatically and may well have to adjust it manually, so I wouldn't worry just yet, as they may have a lot of bets on the horse to adjust. If I were you, I'd wait until this evening and then ask them what's going on if it hasn't been fixed by then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 That will be top of the ice-cream ... to lose the money like this ... my bad luck has no end :moon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLH Posted November 22, 2006 Share Posted November 22, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 The bastards wrote an e-mail to me to contact them by e-mail or phone before 14.00. Do I want my bet to be void or taken @ 6/1. I said void my bet and they still placed it' date=' because it lose. What is this sh*t ???[/quote'] That's very strange. My account was adjusted just few minutes after the phone call. The original bet remained and a new one with return of original stake appeared. Wish you good luck and strong nerves with this fuss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 23, 2006 Author Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Two losers yesterday, for a 40 point loss. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 3755.85 Total Staked: 10100 W/P/L: 66/166/273 Profit/Loss: +2755.85 (Win +632.49, Place +2123.36) Yield: +27.29% I won't be able to post any selections today before around 12:00. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 23, 2006 Author Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.25 Taunton Prince Vector (4/1 William Hill) 10 points EW. Odds on favourite. We're getting 1.8 for the place, compared to a lay price of 1.54 on Betfair. The Betfair win price is slightly higher at 5.3, but the difference in place prices is enough to compensate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 23, 2006 Author Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 3.25 Taunton Devito (12/1 Paddy Power) 10 points EW. Large handicap system. We're getting 4.0 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.98 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is also 12/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 23, 2006 Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 3.25 Taunton Devito (12/1 Paddy Power) 10 points EW. Large handicap system. We're getting 4.0 for the place, compared to a lay price of 2.98 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is also 12/1. Sorry, guys .. it was 14/1 10 minutes ago, but I was waiting for Slapdash to come and pick it for his system :( Really sorry!! Hope it wins to makes us all happy :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 23, 2006 Author Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 3.25 Taunton Dominican Monk (22/1 Willian Hill) 10 points EW. Large handicap system. We're getting 6.5 for the place, compared to a lay price of 4.8 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is also lower, at 19/1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 23, 2006 Author Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 1.05 Uttoxeter Port of Mogan (7/2 William Hill) 10 points EW. Each way system. Odds on favourite. We get 1.70 for the place, compared to a lay price of 1.4 on Betfair, and the Betfair win price is only slightly higher at 3.7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 23, 2006 Author Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 That's all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 23, 2006 Author Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Devito was placed and the other three lost. 40 points lost. Starting Bank: 1000 Current Bank: 3715.85 Total Staked: 10180 W/P/L: 66/167/276 Profit/Loss: +2715.85 (Win +592.49, Place +2123.36) Yield: +26.68% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gamblinghammers Posted November 23, 2006 Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hello Slapdash I have been silently following your tips since June and will never forget the great times throughout the summer. I was just wondering what sort of success you normally have over the jumps, as statistically more favourites win over this period. I'm not on here to moan at all as I believe in your system, for obvious reasons, and think its fantastic that you share your knowledge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 23, 2006 Author Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Hello Slapdash I have been silently following your tips since June and will never forget the great times throughout the summer. I was just wondering what sort of success you normally have over the jumps, as statistically more favourites win over this period. I'm not on here to moan at all as I believe in your system, for obvious reasons, and think its fantastic that you share your knowledge. Hi. While I don't want to be complacent, I first started this around two years ago during the jumps season with some success and was actually very cautious when the flat season started, in case it didn't work for flat races. Apart from the last few months, I haven't noticed any big difference between flat and jumps races. The recent run has been very frustrating, obviously, but personally I'm not yet convinced it's more than statistical fluctuation. It's up to anybody following my selections to make their own minds up, of course: I don't make any guarantees. The difference between the last couple of months of the flat season and the first couple of months of the jumps season this year has been quite dramatic, but I was going through a purple patch during June-August or so: I think I commented on several occasions then that I was doing quite exceptionally and warned people that it wouldn't normally be that good. You mentioned that more favourites win in jumps races. My impression (though I haven't done any research on this) is that there are a lot more short-priced favourites in jumps races, so you'd expect more favourites to win. Do you know if there is any difference between flat and jumps races if you take this into account? For example, if you look at profit/loss from backing all favourites at SP, rather than percentage of winning favourites, is there a significant diference? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 23, 2006 Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 In the last couple of weeks there were some winners in the doubles thread. They could have been here and really could have made a nice profit, but ... not 20% better prices and not here .. of course you need luck, you know :hope I think that is what the system misses right now. That will come, no doubt about it :ok P.S. Or maybe Slapdash has his mind on Slapdash E-W System 2007 and could not focus on the last days of his 2006 system ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 23, 2006 Author Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 One point about this system, that I've mentioned before, is that because I'm betting on horses that are in general at quite high odds, there is a huge statistical variance in the returns from the win half of the bets, which swamps the figures from the place half in the short to medium term. As mileni4uk mentioned, I've had a couple of good wins from the horses that I judged "not quite good enough" recently. Last year I made a loss on the win half of the bets. This year I've made a profit (so far!). But the variance is so large that the difference is not really statistically significant, even over a period of a year. To keep track of how the system is doing over a period of a couple of months, the return from the place half of the bets is a much more reliable statistical indicator (which is the main reason I keep a separate record of the win and place profits). The place returns have been disappointing recently, but I think it's still the win returns that have been causing most of the problem. I hope it doesn't seem as though I'm making excuses. I certainly don't resent anybody's comments on the fluctuations in the fortunes of the system. I'm backing most of these horses for significant amounts of money myself, and I have nothing to gain, and a lot to lose, by closing my eyes to deficiencies in the system, so please keep the comments coming! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 23, 2006 Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 ... and the fingers crossed :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanga Posted November 23, 2006 Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 You mentioned that more favourites win in jumps races. My impression (though I haven't done any research on this) is that there are a lot more short-priced favourites in jumps races, so you'd expect more favourites to win. Do you know if there is any difference between flat and jumps races if you take this into account? For example, if you look at profit/loss from backing all favourites at SP, rather than percentage of winning favourites, is there a significant diference? Sorry if I'm barging in here but I've looked back over the last 10 years and the break down of how clear favourites fair is as follows. Flat (all races) = 31.9% return of 92.0% at SP NHF (all races) = 36.8% return of 92.3% at SP Hope that helps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 23, 2006 Author Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Sorry if I'm barging in here but I've looked back over the last 10 years and the break down of how clear favourites fair is as follows. Flat (all races) = 31.9% return of 92.0% at SP NHF (all races) = 36.8% return of 92.3% at SP Hope that helps Thanks, Kanga. That does seem to back up my gut feeling that the reason that there are more winning favourites over the jumps may be because they tend to be at shorter prices on average. Maybe just because there are fewer really large fields in jumps racing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gamblinghammers Posted November 23, 2006 Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 I never thought about there being more short priced favourites and I don't have any figures to prove either way. I was just looking at the Racing Post racecards and the strike rate of favs at any given course. I now have something else to think about for a while, which is exactly what I was looking for. I shall continue to follow anyway as its a great system with a great return. By the way I do remember your comments during the summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 23, 2006 Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 True more favorites win jump races, because there are more no hoper's in these races. By the same token I feel you can be more confident of getting a place, particularly in hurdle races. During the summer when we were winning every week I expected to endure a period like this at some point. I don't follow slapdash blindly but do some form analysis to complement the method. In races with many unknowns I bet late to take advantage of the more truer odds. Also I don't bother with handicaps with this method. This method will make money and that the bottom line. If people have lost what they originally won then this is down to poor staking and having unrealistic expectations. In racing I very satisfied with 10-15% yield, in soccer only 3-5%. Anything above this level is a bonus. Remember the great professionals like Alec Bird and Phil Bull only made between 5-8% per season!!!:loon Peter May in his book " A guide to Profitable Betting" shows that the method of E/W doubles averages 17% yield. First we get criticism of Datapunter and now people are nervous because a method that made steady profits for 8 months is only getting it's money back. I'm very satisfied with this year and I have banked my profits from the good months.:ok The good times will return.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gamblinghammers Posted November 23, 2006 Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 I'm certainly not nervous and have plenty in reserve from past winnings just wanted to know if there was any previous stats over the jumps. I'm sticking with Slapdash as I have received a 20% profit since I joined and yes this is more than any other return I receive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted November 23, 2006 Share Posted November 23, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 My views; In my opinion one of the reasons the results have been less consistant at this time of year is the types of race Slapdash's selections often run in. I'll explain, quite a lot of the selections if not all are from races that have odds on favs and we get value place odds, a good percentage of those races are Maiden Hurdles, Novice Hurdles and Novice Chases. At this time of year every race of this type has horses running that are jumping hurdles for the first time, either coming from the flat, or have been in NH Flat races or straight from the point to point fields, or sometimes that have had long lay offs. These doubts about several horses in the same race often lead to a short priced favourite followed by a couple of horses that have a bit of recent form, the bookies only have this limited information to price these races up, its no surprise when one or two of the 'unknown' horses reach the frame now and again and also that quite a lot of odds on favs get beaten in these races. Later in the season many of these 'unknown' horses will have had runs and their form will be evident and a more realistic market will be formed and hence in theory its easier to read a race with less dark horses out there. The other thing is that the ground changes quickly at this time of year and because trainers need to get runs into their horses for future handicap marks they run them anyway on unsuitable conditions and we get many disappointing performances as a result. On the flat we tend to get consistant ground conditions and shorter distances in the races and the form is a lot more reliable and markets likewise. When i was in the betting industry a very well respected 'pro' punter told me he hardly had a bet from October until after Xmas, the back end of the flat season and the begining of the jump season. Of course this may be a coincidence but the hardest races to predict just now are the very ones that a lot of Slapdash's system throws up, Port of Mogan and Price Vector today were dead typical examples of what i'm on about, novice races with odds on favs, second or third fav with a bit of previous form, look nailed on for a place and getting mugged by rags with no form at all. Yet Devito ran well, a race he won last year, more solid credentials against proven opponents, all with public form. I'm sure this system will continue to thrive in the future, just dont be too surprised at spells like this at times like this, i'd like to bet that in another 4 weeks or so it will take off again. Just my thoughts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mileni4uk Posted November 24, 2006 Share Posted November 24, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 I think if this system runs from 1st January 2007 till 1st January 2008 it will still make good profit and right now it only has a bad spell !! I was in during the summer months and I'll stay during the bad ones too. GL to Slapdash :hope and the others taking his picks :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cavello Posted November 24, 2006 Share Posted November 24, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 My views; In my opinion one of the reasons the results have been less consistant at this time of year is the types of race Slapdash's selections often run in. I'll explain, quite a lot of the selections if not all are from races that have odds on favs and we get value place odds, a good percentage of those races are Maiden Hurdles, Novice Hurdles and Novice Chases. At this time of year every race of this type has horses running that are jumping hurdles for the first time, either coming from the flat, or have been in NH Flat races or straight from the point to point fields, or sometimes that have had long lay offs. These doubts about several horses in the same race often lead to a short priced favourite followed by a couple of horses that have a bit of recent form, the bookies only have this limited information to price these races up, its no surprise when one or two of the 'unknown' horses reach the frame now and again and also that quite a lot of odds on favs get beaten in these races. Later in the season many of these 'unknown' horses will have had runs and their form will be evident and a more realistic market will be formed and hence in theory its easier to read a race with less dark horses out there. The other thing is that the ground changes quickly at this time of year and because trainers need to get runs into their horses for future handicap marks they run them anyway on unsuitable conditions and we get many disappointing performances as a result. By betting later you can occasionally see these "dark horses". Connections fancy the horse but are not sure if it can beat the odds on fav so the nibble on the exchanges. I have had a couple of decent winners and several places by adopting this approach. Obviously the maths must still indicate value. Unfortunately these type of bets are singles only.Of course you need to be at a computer when the race is about to start. By the way I had already backed most of yesterday selections in E/W doubles well before Slapdash had posted. In the last 2 days I have had a 11/2 shot beaten on the nod Carnival Town and 2 others just defeated at 3/1 and 7/2 plus a couple of 4ths. We have periods of good and bad runs but the glory of this method is that during the bad periods you are usually not losing much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted November 24, 2006 Author Share Posted November 24, 2006 Re: Slapdash systems 2006 Some interesting points. I'll have to have a look at how the selections did during the early jumps season last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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